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At least 1,459 records · Page 81
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS)

Research results have shown that more than half of aviation, aerospace and aeronautics mishaps incidents are attributed to human error. As a part of Safety within space exploration ground processing operations, the identification and/or classification of underlying contributors and causes of human error must be identified, in order to manage human error. This research provides a framework and methodology using the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), as an analysis tool to identify contributing factors, their impact on human error events, and predict the Human Error probabilities (HEPs) of future occurrences. This research methodology was applied (retrospectively) to six (6) NASA ground processing operations scenarios and thirty (30) years of Launch Vehicle related mishap data. This modifiable framework can be used and followed by other space and similar complex operations.

mishaps↗
DOE OSTI2013

Primordial power spectrum: a complete analysis with the WMAP nine-year data

We have improved further the error sensitive Richardson-Lucy deconvolution algorithm making it applicable directly on the un-binned measured angular power spectrum of Cosmic Microwave Background observations to reconstruct the form of the primordial power spectrum. This improvement makes the application of the method significantly more straight forward by removing some intermediate stages of analysis allowing a reconstruction of the primordial spectrum with higher efficiency and precision and with lower computational expenses. Applying the modified algorithm we fit the WMAP 9 year data using the optimized reconstructed form of the primordial spectrum with more than 300 improvement in χ{sup 2}{sub eff} with respect to the best fit power-law. This is clearly beyond the reach of other alternative approaches and reflects the efficiency of the proposed method in the reconstruction process and allow us to look for any possible feature in the primordial spectrum projected in the CMB data. Though the proposed method allow us to look at various possibilities for the form of the primordial spectrum, all having good fit to the data, proper error-analysis is needed to test for consistency of theoretical models since, along with possible physical artefacts, most of the features in the reconstructed spectrum might be arising from fitting noises in the CMB data. Reconstructed error-band for the form of the primordial spectrum using many realizations of the data, all bootstrapped and based on WMAP 9 year data, shows proper consistency of power-law form of the primordial spectrum with the WMAP 9 data at all wave numbers. Including WMAP polarization data in to the analysis have not improved much our results due to its low quality but we expect Planck data will allow us to make a full analysis on CMB observations on both temperature and polarization separately and in combination.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1985

Gamma-ray burster recurrence time scales

In the decade since gamma-ray bursters (GRBs) were discovered by Klebesadel et al. (1973), many models have been proposed to explain the GRB phenomenon. A difficulty is related to the small number of predictions which would make it possible to evaluate the models. One verifiable prediction is the recurrence time scale, tau-gamma. One method to measure tau-gamma is to look for possible cases of recurrence as indicated by overlapping error boxes. The analysis considered in the present investigation is composed of three procedures. One of these involves a search through known error regions for cases where the error regions overlap. In addition, the number of overlaps expected by chance coincidence alone has been determined, and a calculation has been performed regarding the number of overlaps which are expected due to recurrence for various assumed tau-gamma and luminosity functions.

Schaefer, B. E.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Can Aerosol Direct Radiative Effects Account for Analysis Increments of Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic?

In the late 1990's, prior to the launch of the Terra satellite, atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) did not include aerosol processes because aerosols were not properly monitored on a global scale and their spatial distributions were not known well enough for their incorporation in operational GCMs. At the time of the first GEOS Reanalysis (Schubert et al. 1993), long time series of analysis increments (the corrections to the atmospheric state by all available meteorological observations) became readily available, enabling detailed analysis of the GEOS-1 errors on a global scale. Such analysis revealed that temperature biases were particularly pronounced in the Tropical Atlantic region, with patterns depicting a remarkable similarity to dust plumes emanating from the African continent as evidenced by TOMS aerosol index maps. Yoram Kaufman was instrumental encouraging us to pursue this issue further, resulting in the study reported in Alpert et al. (1998) where we attempted to assess aerosol forcing by studying the errors of a the GEOS-1 GCM without aerosol physics within a data assimilation system. Based on this analysis, Alpert et al. (1998) put forward that dust aerosols are an important source of inaccuracies in numerical weather-prediction models in the Tropical Atlantic region, although a direct verification of this hypothesis was not possible back then. Nearly 20 years later, numerical prediction models have increased in resolution and complexity of physical parameterizations, including the representation of aerosols and their interactions with the circulation. Moreover, with the advent of NASA's EOS program and subsequent satellites, atmospheric aerosols are now monitored globally on a routine basis, and their assimilation in global models are becoming well established. In this talk we will reexamine the Alpert et al. (1998) hypothesis using the most recent version of the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System with assimilation of aerosols. We will explicitly calculate the impact of aerosols on the temperature analysis increments in the tropical Atlantic and assess the extent to which inclusion of atmospheric aerosols have reduced these increments.

General Circulation Models↗
DOE OSTI2017

Erratum: “A high precision gas flow cell for performing in situ neutron studies of local atomic structure in catalytic materials” [Rev. Sci. Instrum. 88, 034101 (2017)]

We report that in the original paper,1 the following chemical formula was reported erroneously: Na 78-2x Ca x Al 78 Si 144 O 384 , x ≈ 38. The correct formula for the material studied is Na 86-2x Ca x Al 86 Si 106 O 384 , x ≈ 43. The difference in formula values between this corrected composition and values in Table 1 has no effect on the refinement quality (within the reported error), the subsequent analysis, or overall conclusions of the manuscript. Specifically, the neutron diffraction data and crystallographic refinement are insensitive (within the reported error) to the corresponding change in the Si/Al ratios, and the corrected number of Ca (x ≈ 43) is found to be within the error of the value reported via crystallographic refinement of the Ca occupancy [x = 46(3)].

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1975

On the nature of the radial and cross track errors for artificial earth satellites

The analysis of the radial and cross track errors of artificial earth satellites is discussed in terms of the interference of two one-dimensional celestial mechanical wave trains. Resulting equations for these tracking errors describe the behavior of the uncertainties in the orbital parameters as oscillatory in nature, with a rapidly oscillating term, which is a function of the sum of the observed and computed orbital frequencies, modulated in amplitude by a slowly varying oscillation. This latter term is itself a function of either the difference between these orbital frequencies or between the values of the computed and observed right ascensions, depending upon whether it is the radial or cross track case under consideration. These results indicate that the cross track calculation describes the behavior of uncertainties in the right ascension of the ascending node and the inclination, while the radial calculation gives information on uncertainties in the semi-major axis, the eccentricity, and the argument of perigee. In addition, expressions for the radial and cross track oscillatory frequencies are obtained in terms of the orbital frequencies of the satellites. Data show that the time average of the radial and cross track errors in any case, will both approach zero.

Bonavito, N. L.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A variational method for finite element stress recovery and error estimation

A variational method for obtaining smoothed stresses from a finite element derived nonsmooth stress field is presented. The method is based on minimizing a functional involving discrete least-squares error plus a penalty constraint that ensures smoothness of the stress field. An equivalent accuracy criterion is developed for the smoothing analysis which results in a C sup 1-continuous smoothed stress field possessing the same order of accuracy as that found at the superconvergent optimal stress points of the original finite element analysis. Application of the smoothing analysis to residual error estimation is also demonstrated.

Tessler, A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

From Formal Errors Towards Realistic Uncertainties

Evaluation of uncertainties of geodetic parameter estimates is the problem that is not yet solved in a satisfactory way. A direct evaluation of the uncertainties derived from a least square solution is labeled "formal" and is usually biased, sometimes up to an order of magnitude. Customary, the use of formal errors for scientific analysis is discouraged. We claim that the root of the problem is neglecting off-diagonal elements in the variance-covariance matrix of the noise in the data. A careful reconstruction of the full variance-covariance matrix, including the off-diagonal terms greatly improves realism of uncertainty estimates derived from least squares. We processed the dataset of VLBI group delays and built a prior variance-covariance of the atmosphere-driven noise based on analysis of the output of NASA high-resolution numerical weather models. We found that the uncertainties of parameter estimates derived from this least square solution that uses such variance-covariance matrices become much closer to realistic errors. We consider approaches for implementation of this method in routine data analysis of space geodesy data.

Leonid Petrov↗
DOE OSTI2016

Multivariate analysis for the estimation of target localization errors in fiducial marker-based radiotherapy

Purpose: To assess the target localization error (TLE) in terms of the distance between the target and the localization point estimated from the surrogates (|TMD|), the average of respiratory motion for the surrogates and the target (|aRM|), and the number of fiducial markers used for estimating the target (n). Methods: This study enrolled 17 lung cancer patients who subsequently underwent four fractions of real-time tumor tracking irradiation. Four or five fiducial markers were implanted around the lung tumor. The three-dimensional (3D) distance between the tumor and markers was at maximum 58.7 mm. One of the markers was used as the target (P{sub t}), and those markers with a 3D |TMD{sub n}| ≤ 58.7 mm at end-exhalation were then selected. The estimated target position (P{sub e}) was calculated from a localization point consisting of one to three markers except P{sub t}. Respiratory motion for P{sub t} and P{sub e} was defined as the root mean square of each displacement, and |aRM| was calculated from the mean value. TLE was defined as the root mean square of each difference between P{sub t} and P{sub e} during the monitoring of each fraction. These procedures were performed repeatedly using the remaining markers. To provide the best guidance on the answer with n and |TMD|, fiducial markers with a 3D |aRM ≥ 10 mm were selected. Finally, a total of 205, 282, and 76 TLEs that fulfilled the 3D |TMD| and 3D |aRM| criteria were obtained for n = 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Multiple regression analysis (MRA) was used to evaluate TLE as a function of |TMD| and |aRM| in each n. Results: |TMD| for n = 1 was larger than that for n = 3. Moreover, |aRM| was almost constant for all n, indicating a similar scale for the marker’s motion near the lung tumor. MRA showed that |aRM| in the left–right direction was the major cause of TLE; however, the contribution made little difference to the 3D TLE because of the small amount of motion in the left–right direction. The TLE calculated from the MRA ({sup MRA}TLE) increased as |TMD| and |aRM| increased and adversely decreased with each increment of n. The median 3D {sup MRA}TLE was 2.0 mm (range, 0.6–4.3 mm) for n = 1, 1.8 mm (range, 0.4–4.0 mm) for n = 2, and 1.6 mm (range, 0.3–3.7 mm) for n = 3. Although statistical significance between n = 1 and n = 3 was observed in all directions, the absolute average difference and the standard deviation of the {sup MRA}TLE between n = 1 and n = 3 were 0.5 and 0.2 mm, respectively. Conclusions: A large |TMD| and |aRM| increased the differences in TLE between each n; however, the difference in 3D {sup MRA}TLEs was, at most, 0.6 mm. Thus, the authors conclude that it is acceptable to continue fiducial marker-based radiotherapy as long as |TMD| is maintained at ≤58.7 mm for a 3D |aRM| ≥ 10 mm.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Eucalyptus – An Analysis Suite for Fault Trees with Uncertainty Quantification

Eucalyptus is a novel code developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to incorporate uncertainty quantification into Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). This tool addresses the challenge of imperfect knowledge in “grey-box” systems by allowing analysts to incorporate and propagate uncertainty from component-level assessments to system-level effects. Eucalyptus facilitates a consistent evaluation of the impact of subject matter expert judgment and knowledge gaps on overall system response by Monte Carlo generation of possible system fault trees, sampling probabilities of the existence of subsystems and components. Here, the code supports the specification of fault trees through text and allows export to various formats, including auto-generated images, easing analysis and reducing errors. It has undergone extensive verification testing, demonstrating its reliability and readiness for deployment, and leverages on-node parallelism for rapid analysis. Example analyses are shown that include the identification of system failure paths and quantification of the value of further information about system components.

Fault Tree Analysis↗
NASA NTRS1984

Forecasts of the 500 mb height using a dynamically oriented statistical model

The forecast skill of a simple dynamically inspired statistical model of the Northern Hemisphere 500 mb height field is evaluated in spectral and physical space for a variety of forecast lead times (1-32 days) and predictand averaging times (1-32 days). The model includes viscous damping, wave propagation, climatology and implicit stochastic forcing. The largest model skill was found for forecasts of the zonal flow and the largest waves. In general, the largest forecast skills were also associated with the largest forecast error, there being a slight geographic phase shift of the skill with respect to the error. Model skills for climate (time-averaged) forecasts are greater when using instantaneous rather than time averages to forecast time averages. Analysis of model errors suggests areas for improvement in representing forcing terms and model physics. However, the model error fields are largely 'white noise' which suggests that global forecast skills substantially larger than those obtained here are unlikely to be achieved by more sophisticated models.

Roads, J. O.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sources of error and methods to improve accuracy in interface state density analysis using quasi-static capacitance–voltage measurements in wide bandgap semiconductors

Characterizing interface trap states in commercial wide bandgap devices using frequency-based measurements requires unconventionally high probing frequencies to account for both fast and slow traps associated with wide bandgap materials. The C - ψs technique has been suggested as a viable quasi-static method for determining the interface trap state densities in wide bandgap systems, but the results are shown to be susceptible to errors in the analysis procedure. Here this work explores the primary sources of errors present in the C - ψs technique using an analytical model that describes the apparent response for wide bandgap MOS capacitor devices. Measurement noise is shown to greatly impact the linear fitting routine of the 1/C$^{*2}_s$ vs Ψ s plot to calibrate the additive constant in the surface potential/gate voltage relationship, and an inexact knowledge of the oxide capacitance is also shown to impede interface trap state analysis near the band edge. In addition, a slight nonlinearity that is typically present throughout the 1/C$^{*2}_s$ vs Ψ s plot hinders the accurate estimation of interface trap densities, which is demonstrated for a fabricated n-SiC MOS capacitor device. Methods are suggested to improve quasi-static analysis, including a novel method to determine an approximate integration constant without relying on a linear fitting routine.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Multiscale Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Fuel Performance

In this project, we will address the challenges associated with constructing high fidelity multiscale models of nuclear fuel performance. We (*) propose a novel approach for coupling mesoscale and macroscale models, (*) devise efficient numerical methods for simulating the coupled system, and (*) devise and analyze effective numerical approaches for error and uncertainty quantification for the coupled multiscale system. As an integral part of the project, we will carry out analysis of the effects of upscaling and downscaling, investigate efficient methods for stochastic sensitivity analysis of the individual macroscale and mesoscale models, and carry out a posteriori error analysis for computed results. We will pursue development and implementation of solutions in software used at Idaho National Laboratories on models of interest to the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying experimental edge plasma evolution via multidimensional adaptive Gaussian process regression

The edge density and temperature of tokamak plasmas are strongly correlated with energy and particle confinement and their quantification is fundamental to understanding edge dynamics. These quantities exhibit behaviours ranging from sharp plasma gradients and fast transient phenomena (e.g. transitions between low and high confinement regimes) to nominal stationary phases. Analysis of experimental edge measurements therefore require robust fitting techniques to capture potentially stiff spatiotemporal evolution. Additionally, fusion plasma diagnostics inevitably involve measurement errors and data analysis requires a statistical framework to accurately quantify uncertainties. This paper outlines a generalized multidimensional adaptive Gaussian process routine capable of automatically handling noisy data and spatiotemporal correlations. We focus on the edge-pedestal region in order to underline advancements in quantifying time-dependent plasma profiles including transport barrier formation on the Alcator C-Mod tokamak.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1975

A discussion of dynamic stability measurement techniques

Techniques for the measurement of the dynamic stability of linear systems are discussed. Particular attention is given to an analysis of the errors in the procedures, and to methods for calculating the system damping from the data. The techniques discussed include: transient decay, moving block analysis, spectral analysis, random decrement signatures, transfer function analysis, and parameter identification methods. The special problems of rotorcraft dynamic stability testing are discussed.

Johnson, W.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Probabilistic Look-ahead Contingency Analysis Integrated with GE EMS Tool

This report documents implementation of the smart sampling-based probabilistic look-ahead contingency analysis algorithm, the integration with General Electric (GE) Grid Solutions’ commercial energy management system (EMS) tool, and the case study results using real world data from the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA).The probabilistic look-ahead contingency analysis algorithm incorporates forecast errors of renewable energy and load into contingency analysis functions to enable a predictive capability with a more complete picture, revealing the potential violations that are not normally detected by traditional deterministic approaches. To test its performance under practical environments, the probabilistic look-ahead contingency analysis algorithm has been integrated with the dominant GE EMS tool as a proof-of-concept for a seamless integration. To meet the output format of GE EMS tool, an extreme value distribution (EVD) algorithm is newly adapted to analyze the GE EMS’s violation-only output. Real world data from BPA are used to test its performance, and the results clearly show the effectiveness of the developed algorithm and improved situational awareness. This effort is an example of successful technology transition and cooperation under a real-world environment because it is a joint effort from department of energy, a national laboratory, a commercial vendor, and a large utility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1990

Sounding rocket measurement of the absolute solar EUV flux utilizing a silicon photodiode

A newly developed stable and high quantum efficiency silicon photodiode was used to obtain an accurate measurement of the integrated absolute magnitude of the solar extreme UV photon flux in the spectral region between 50 and 800 A. The adjusted daily 10.7-cm solar radio flux and sunspot number were 168.4 and 121, respectively. The unattenuated absolute value of the solar EUV flux at 1 AU in the specified wavelength region was 6.81 x 10 to the 10th photons/sq cm per s. Based on a nominal probable error of 7 percent for National Institute of Standards and Technology detector efficiency measurements in the 50- to 500-A region (5 percent on longer wavelength measurements between 500 and 1216 A), and based on experimental errors associated with the present rocket instrumentation and analysis, a conservative total error estimate of about 14 percent is assigned to the absolute integral solar flux obtained.

Ogawa, H. S.↗