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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Supportability Concepts for Crewed Deep Space Exploration

Supportability—defined as the set of system characteristics that influence the logistics and support required to enable safe and effective operations—will be a much larger driver of mass, risk, and crew time for future human space exploration due to the more challenging mission context. For Mars, systems must operate in a logistically isolated environment for much longer durations than previous missions, which results in a higher probability of system failure and therefore an increased need for maintenance or contingency options. Mars missions also lack access to quick aborts, which increases the consequences of an unrecoverable system failure. Together, this higher likelihood and consequence of failure results in an increase in supportability-related risk. Supportability analysis is an important part of systems development that helps designers better understand the impacts of system and mission decisions on risk, mass, and crew time. The real-world processes that drive maintenance requirements and other supportability-related characteristics are probabilistic, and therefore they require different conceptual approaches and models than are used for more deterministic aspects of space systems. This paper provides an overview of supportability analysis, addresses key concepts, and provides examples of how supportability analysis can be incorporated into system development. Specifically, system supportability involves stochastic processes, and therefore must be evaluated using probabilistic models. These models can be used to perform sensitivity analysis even if system characteristics are not yet fully defined. Failure rates cannot be measured directly, but tests provide valuable data that can help refine those estimates. Human spaceflight architectures are complex, and exhibit coupled behavior that should be examined with integrated systems analysis that includes an assessment of supportability.

Supportability↗
NASA NTRS2002

Reliability and Productivity Modeling for the Optimization of Separated Spacecraft Interferometers

As technological systems grow in capability, they also grow in complexity. Due to this complexity, it is no longer possible for a designer to use engineering judgement to identify the components that have the largest impact on system life cycle metrics, such as reliability, productivity, cost, and cost effectiveness. One way of identifying these key components is to build quantitative models and analysis tools that can be used to aid the designer in making high level architecture decisions. Once these key components have been identified, two main approaches to improving a system using these components exist: add redundancy or improve the reliability of the component. In reality, the most effective approach to almost any system will be some combination of these two approaches, in varying orders of magnitude for each component. Therefore, this research tries to answer the question of how to divide funds, between adding redundancy and improving the reliability of components, to most cost effectively improve the life cycle metrics of a system. While this question is relevant to any complex system, this research focuses on one type of system in particular: Separate Spacecraft Interferometers (SSI). Quantitative models are developed to analyze the key life cycle metrics of different SSI system architectures. Next, tools are developed to compare a given set of architectures in terms of total performance, by coupling different life cycle metrics together into one performance metric. Optimization tools, such as simulated annealing and genetic algorithms, are then used to search the entire design space to find the "optimal" architecture design. Sensitivity analysis tools have been developed to determine how sensitive the results of these analyses are to uncertain user defined parameters. Finally, several possibilities for the future work that could be done in this area of research are presented.

Kenny, Sean↗
NASA NTRS1990

Recent experience with multidisciplinary analysis and optimization in advanced aircraft design

The task of modern aircraft design has always been complicated due to the number of intertwined technical factors from the various engineering disciplines. Furthermore, this complexity has been rapidly increasing by the development of such technologies as aeroelasticity tailored materials and structures, active control systems, integrated propulsion/airframe controls, thrust vectoring, and so on. Successful designs that achieve maximum advantage from these new technologies require a thorough understanding of the physical phenomena and the interactions among these phenomena. A study commissioned by the Aeronautical Sciences and Evaluation Board of the National Research Council has gone so far as to identify technology integration as a new discipline from which many future aeronautical advancements will arise. Regardless of whether one considers integration as a new discipline or not, it is clear to all engineers involved in aircraft design and analysis that better methods are required. In the past, designers conducted parametric studies in which a relatively small number of principal characteristics were varied to determine the effect on design requirements which were themselves often diverse and contradictory. Once a design was chosen, it then passed through the various engineers' disciplines whose principal task was to make the chosen design workable. Working in a limited design space, the discipline expert sometimes improved the concept, but more often than not, the result was in the form of a penalty to make the original concept workable. If an insurmountable problem was encountered, the process began over. Most design systems that attempt to account for disciplinary interactions have large empirical elements and reliance on past experience is a poor guide in obtaining maximum utilizations of new technologies. Further compounding the difficulty of design is that as the aeronautical sciences have matured, the discipline specialist's area of research has generally narrowed as more sophisticated methods are developed in the specialist's area of expertise. The results have been a decrease in the awareness of the impact of his decisions on other disciplines. This paper will outline the progress and problems encountered in the analysis, design, optimization sensitivity analysis, mathematical modeling, and configurations control and the means by which they are being solved. The breadth versus depth dilemma in analysis and design and the means for coping with that dilemma will be discussed. Finally, the all-important human aspects and the need for a new 'culture ' for doing business in an integrated, multidisciplinary design environment are discussed.

Dollyhigh, Samuel M.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Characterization of Space Shuttle Thermal Protection System (TPS) Materials for Return-to-Flight following the Shuttle Columbia Accident Investigation

During the Space Shuttle Columbia Accident Investigation, it was determined that a large chunk of polyurethane insulating foam (= 1.67 lbs) on the External Tank (ET) came loose during Columbia's ascent on 2-1-03. The foam piece struck some of the protective Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC) panels on the leading edge of Columbia's left wing in the mid-wing area. This impact damaged Columbia to the extent that upon re-entry to Earth, superheGed air approaching 3,000 F caused the vehicle to break up, killing all seven astronauts on board. A paper after the Columbia Accident Investigation highlighted thermal analysis testing performed on External Tank TPS materials (1). These materials included BX-250 (now BX-265) rigid polyurethane foam and SLA-561 Super Lightweight Ablator (highly-filled silicone rubber). The large chunk of foam from Columbia originated fiom the left bipod ramp of the ET. The foam in this ramp area was hand-sprayed over the SLA material and various fittings, allowed to dry, and manually shaved into a ramp shape. In Return-to-Flight (RTF) efforts following Columbia, the decision was made to remove the foam in the bipod ramp areas. During RTF efforts, further thermal analysis testing was performed on BX-265 foam by DSC and DMA. Flat panels of foam about 2-in. thick were sprayed on ET tank material (aluminum alloys). The DSC testing showed that foam material very close to the metal substrate cured more slowly than bulk foam material. All of the foam used on the ET is considered fully cured about 21 days after it is sprayed. The RTF culminated in the successful launch of Space Shuttle Discovery on 7-26-05. Although the flight was a success, there was another serious incident of foam loss fiom the ET during Shuttle ascent. This time, a rather large chunk of BX-265 foam (= 0.9 lbs) came loose from the liquid hydrogen (LH2) PAL ramp, although the foam did not strike the Shuttle Orbiter containing the crew. DMA testing was performed on foam samples taken fiom a simulated PAL ramp panel. It was found that the smooth rind on the foam facing the cable tray did significantly affect the properties of foam at the PAL ramp surface. The smooth rind increased the storage modulus E' of the foam as much as 20- 40% over a temperature range of -145 to 95 C. Because of foam loss fiom the PAL ramp, future Shuttle flights were grounded indefinitely to allow further testing to better understand foam properties. The decision was also made to remove foam from the LH2 PAL, ramp. Other RTF efforts prior to the launch of Discovery included

Wingard, Doug↗
DOE OSTI2017

Rapid methods for radionuclide contaminant transport in nuclear fuel cycle simulation

Here, nuclear fuel cycle and nuclear waste disposal decisions are technologically coupled. However, current nuclear fuel cycle simulators lack dynamic repository performance analysis due to the computational burden of high-fidelity hydrolgic contaminant transport models. The Cyder disposal environment and repository module was developed to fill this gap. It implements medium-fidelity hydrologic radionuclide transport models to support assessment appropriate for fuel cycle simulation in the Cyclus fuel cycle simulator. Rapid modeling of hundreds of discrete waste packages in a geologic environment is enabled within this module by a suite of four closed form models for advective, dispersive, coupled, and idealized con- taminant transport: a Degradation Rate model, a Mixed Cell model, a Lumped Parameter model, and a 1-D Permeable Porous Medium model. A summary of the Cyder module, its timestepping algorithm, and the mathematical models implemented within it are presented. Additionally, parametric demonstrations simulations performed with Cyder are presented and shown to demonstrate functional agreement with parametric simulations conducted in a standalone hydrologic transport model, the Clay Generic Disposal System Model developed by the Used Fuel Disposition Campaign Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Environmental assessment in The Netherlands: Effectively governing environmental protection? A discourse analysis

Environmental assessment (EA) aims to enhance environmental awareness and to ensure that environmental values are fully considered in decision-making. In the EA arena, different discourses exist on what EA should aim for and how it functions. We hypothesise that these discourses influence its application in practice as well as its effectiveness in terms of achieving the above goals. For instance, actors who consider EA as a hindrance to fast implementation of their projects will probably apply it as a mandatory checklist, whereas actors who believe that EA can help to develop more environmentally sound decisions will use EIA as a tool to design their initiatives. In this paper we explore discourses on EA in The Netherlands and elaborate on their implications for EA effectiveness. Based on an innovative research design comprising an online survey with 443 respondents and 20 supplementary semi-structured interviews we conclude that the dominant discourse is that EA is mainly a legal requirement; EAs are conducted because they have to be conducted, not because actors choose to do so. EA effectiveness however seems reasonably high, as a majority of respondents perceive that it enhances environmental awareness and contributes to environmental protection. However, the 'legal requirement' discourse also results in decision-makers seldom going beyond what is prescribed by EA and environmental law. Despite its mandatory character, the predominant attitude towards EA is quite positive. For most respondents, EA is instrumental in providing transparency of decision-making and in minimising the legal risks of not complying with environmental laws. Differences in discourses seldom reflect extreme opposites. The 'common ground' regarding EA provides a good basis for working with EA in terms of meeting legal requirements but at the same time does not stimulate creativity in decision-making or optimisation of environmental values. In countries characterised by less consensual political cultures we may expect more extreme discourses on EA, the consequences of which are reflected upon in this paper. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The effectiveness of environmental assessment (EA) depends in part on meanings associated with EA (i.e., discourse). Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Our results suggest that the general discourse in The Netherlands is that EA is a legal requirement, nothing more. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer This discourse makes EA effective in protecting the environment, but not in the optimisation of environmental values. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer EA has a limited contribution to the development of policy alternatives or innovative solutions to environmental problems. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer There is a high consensus among EA professionals, providing a common ground for working with EA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Private, public, and bottled drinking water: Shared contaminant-mixture exposures and effects challenge

Background: Humans are primary drivers of environmental–contaminant exposures worldwide, including in drinking-water (DW). In the United States, point-of-use DW (POU–DW) is supplied via private tapwater (TW), public-supply TW, and bottled water (BW). Differences in management, monitoring, and messaging and lack of directly–intercomparable exposure data influence the actual and perceived quality and safety of different DW supplies and directly impact consumer decision–making. Objectives: The purpose of this paper is to provide a meta-analysis (quantitative synthesis) of POU–DW contaminant–mixture exposures and corresponding potential human–health effects of private-TW, public-TW, and BW by aggregating exposure results and harmonizing apical–health–benchmark–weighted and bioactivity–weighted effects predictions across previous studies by this research group. Discussion: Simultaneous exposures to multiple inorganic and organic contaminants of known or suspected human-health concern are common across all three DW supplies, with substantial variability observed in each and no systematic difference in predicted cumulative risk between supplies. Differences in contaminant or contaminant–class exposures, with important implications for DW–quality improvements, were observed and attributed to corresponding differences in regulation and compliance monitoring. Conclusion: The results indicate that human-health risks from contaminant exposures are common to and comparable in all three DW–supplies, including BW. Importantly, this study’s target analytical coverage, which exceeds that currently feasible for water purveyors or homeowners, nevertheless is a substantial underestimation of the breadth of contaminant mixtures in the environment and potentially present in DW. Thus, the results emphasize the need for improved understanding of the adverse human-health implications of long-term exposures to low–level inorganic–/organic–contaminant mixtures across all three distribution pipelines and do not support commercial messaging of BW as a systematically safer alternative to public-TW. Regardless of the supply, increased public engagement in source-water protection and drinking–water treatment is necessary to reduce risks associated with long-term DW–contaminant exposures, especially in vulnerable populations, and to reduce environmental waste and plastics contamination.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Geothermal Artificial Intelligence for geothermal exploration

Exploration of geothermal resources involves analysis and management of a large number of uncertainties, which makes investment and operations decisions challenging. Remote Sensing (RS), Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) have potential in managing the challenges of geothermal exploration. In this paper, we present a methodology that integrates RS, ML and AI to create an initial assessment of geothermal potential, by resorting to known indicators of geothermal areas namely mineral markers, surface temperature, faults and deformation. We demonstrated the implementation of the method in two sites (Brady and Desert Peak geothermal sites) that are close to each other but have different characteristics (Brady having clear surface manifestations and Desert Peak being a blind site). Here, we processed various satellite images and geospatial data for mineral markers, temperature, faults and deformation and then implemented ML methods to obtain pattern of surface manifestation of geothermal sites. We developed an AI that uses patterns from surface manifestations to predict geothermal potential of each pixel. We tested the Geothermal AI using independent data sets obtaining accuracy of 92-95%; also tested the Geothermal AI trained on one site by executing it for the other site to predict the geothermal / non-geothermal delineation, the Geothermal AI performed quite well in prediction with 72-76% accuracy.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the Sensitivity of Pourbaix Diagrams to Computational Protocols: Electrochemical Stability of Ni Oxides as a Case Study

Pourbaix diagrams stand as a useful tool in assessing and visualizing materials’ electrochemical stability and are widely used for electrocatalyst design. However, their reliability hinges on the accuracy of the chemical potentials of involved phases, which may bear uncertainties and can be significantly impacted by decision-making steps in the computational protocol. Here, this study introduces a robust sensitivity analysis framework, exemplified through a detailed examination of the computational Pourbaix diagram of Ni, the oxides of which are used as high-activity and cost-friendly catalysts for many electrochemical reactions. Quantities of interest derived from the Pourbaix diagram include the appearance and stability domain of the catalytically active Ni oxide phases along with the onset electrochemical potentials of phase transitions. These metrics can guide the design of operational conditions for Ni oxide electrocatalysts. We find that the employed DFT exchange-correlation functional has the most significant influence on the computed Pourbaix diagram. Uncertainties on crystal structures, along with their related ab initio energetics, are also found to affect the size of the phase stability domain. Higher-order coupling among input parameters is found to play a crucial role in influencing the appearance and distribution of Ni phases in the diagram. Our findings suggest a need to consider variations and uncertainties associated with the computational procedures on predicted Pourbaix diagrams for materials design.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

Evaluation of Anomaly Detection for Wide-Area Protection Using Cyber Federation Testbed

Cyber physical security research for smart grid is currently one of the nation's top R&D priorities. The existing vulnerabilities in the legacy grid infrastructure make it particularly susceptible to countless cyber-attacks. There is a growing emphasis towards building interconnected, sophisticated federated testbeds to perform realistic experiments by allowing the integration of geographically-dispersed resources in the dynamic cyber-physical environment. In this paper, we present a cyber (network) based federation testbed to validate the performance of an anomaly detector in context of a Wide Area Protection (WAP) security. Specifically, we have utilized the resources available at the Iowa State University Power Cyber (ISU PCL) Laboratory to emulate the substation and local center networks; and the US Army Research Laboratory (ARL); to emulate the regional control center network. Initially, we describe a hardware-in-the loop based experimental setup for implementing data integrity attacks on an IEEE 39 bus system. We then perform network packet analysis focusing on latency and bandwidth as well as evaluate the performance of a decision tree based anomaly detector in measuring its ability to identify different attacks. Our experimental results reveal the computed wide area network latency; bandwidth requirement for minimum packet loss; and successful performance of the anomaly detector. Our studies also highlight the conceptual architecture necessary for developing the federated testbed, inspired by the NASPI network.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2017

Characterizing Risk for Cumulative Risk Assessments: Characterizing Risk for Cumulative Risk Assessments

In assessing environmental health risks, the risk characterization step synthesizes information gathered in evaluating exposures to stressors together with dose-response relationships, characteristics of the exposed population, and external environmental conditions. This article summarizes key steps of a cumulative risk assessment (CRA) followed by a discussion of considerations for characterizing cumulative risks. Cumulative risk characterizations differ considerably from single chemical- or single source-based risk characterization. CRAs typically focus on a specific population instead of a pollutant or pollutant source and should include an evaluation of all relevant sources contributing to the exposures in the population and other factors that influence dose-response relationships. Second, CRAs may include influential environmental and population-specific conditions, involving multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors. Third, a CRA could examine multiple health effects, reflecting joint toxicity and the potential for toxicological interactions. Fourth, the complexities often necessitate simplifying methods, including judgment-based and semi-quantitative indices that collapse disparate data into numerical scores. Fifth, because of the higher dimensionality and potentially large number of interactions, information needed to quantify risk is typically incomplete, necessitating an uncertainty analysis. Three approaches that could be used for characterizing risks in a CRA are presented: the multiroute hazard index, stressor grouping by exposure and toxicity, and indices for screening multiple factors and conditions. Other key roles of the risk characterization in CRAs are also described, mainly the translational aspect of including a characterization summary for lay readers (in addition to the technical analysis), and placing the results in the context of the likely risk-based decisions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

All Hazards Analysis Core

The All Hazards Knowledge Framework (AHA) is a dynamic analytical framework that enables critical infrastructure knowledge discovery and decision support across the five mission areas – prevention, protection, mitigation, response and recovery. AHA provides the ability to store and model infrastructure systems as a linked multigraphs providing an intuitive and natural representation. This capability provides the foundation to rapidly evaluate and understand the potential consequences of manmade and natural disaster on these systems.

McGillivary, KentE.↗
DOE OSTI2016

DragonView: Toward Understanding Network Interference in Dragonfly-based Supercomputers

Acquiring and maintaining high performance computing systems represents a substantial, long term investment. Therefore, it is paramount to optimize their utilization in order to maximize the return on investment and the impact on science and engineering. In this context, network congestion and inter-job interference are a major challenge as they can lead to significant systemwide performance degregation. This is especially pertinent in shared interconnects such as the dragonfly network, in which resources are shared by multiple jobs. Since many large-scale applications are communication-bound, a few communication heavy applications can have a large impact on the performance of all jobs and decrease the overall system throughput. In this paper, we describe a web-based visual analytics environment to study congestion and inter-job interference on dragonfly networks. The system enables network architects, system administrators and application developers to explore the potential impact of machine configuration, job placement policies and routing algorithms by visualizing and comparing ensembles of simulated workloads and real world data. We focus on the design of the system and describe the challenges, design decisions and the final implementation. Finally, we present two detailed case studies of prototypical analysis sessions by our stakeholders aimed at exploring the implications of different workloads and machine configurations using ensembles of network simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty Quantification for Component Modeling Using the Discrete-Direct Approach

Threaded fastener behavior can be an important aspect of complex component and system behavior, but there is no one-size-fits-all finite element analysis technique. Proper modeling of threaded fastener joints requires careful consideration of many details, from test setup and data acquisition to constitutive modeling and uncertainty quantification approaches. This report details analysis of a “mini-radax” bolted-joint exemplar where a Discrete-Direct uncertainty quantification approach is employed to evaluate margin of the component. The mini-radax geometry is tested to failure on a drop table, and single-coupon tests of individual fasteners serve as foundational data for the analysis. Analysis predictions complement the test data well and provide additional context for engineering decision-making.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1978

A candidate low-cost processing sequence for terrestrial silicon solar cell panel

Manufacturing sequence for silicon solar cells using Czochralsky crystal growing techniques in order to produce at a rate of 20 MW per year on a 24-hour per day basis is discussed. Cost analysis of the manufacturing is presented and consideration is given to the following processing decision categories of the manufacturing of an unencapsulated solar cell from a silicon wafer: (1) treatment of the optical surface; (2) formation of the junction(s); and (3) metallization of electrical collectors. The manufacturing of encapsulated solar modules from solar cells, using two glass plates, a low iron front surface, and a standard float glass back plate, is described. Totaling the three major activities of wafer making, cell manufacturing, and module fabrication, the resulting contribution to module price will be 1.945 $/watt.

Bickler, D. B.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Computational aerodynamic design methodology

The transonic wing design process has been vastly improved at Lockheed-Georgia. The revised design procedure enhances useability and reliability by combining numerical optimization and inverse design into a single wing design code with transonic analysis provided by a modified version of FLO22. A more versatile set of geometric decision variables has been integrated into the optimization portion for geometry perturbations. An automatic restart feature permits the interchangeability of solutions between optimization and inverse design as the design progresses. In combination, these improvements enable practical utilization of a VAX 11/780 computer and significantly reduce the elapsed time required to complete a transonic wing design.

Burris, C. B.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Exploration Studies Technical Report - Volume 3: Special Reports, Studies, and Indepth Systems Assessments

The NASA Office of Exploration has been tasked with defining and recommending alternatives for an early 1990's national decision on a focused program of human exploration of the solar system. The Mission Analysis and System Engineering (MASE) group, which is managed by the Exploration Studies Office at the Johnson Space Center, is responsible for coordinating the technical studies necessary for accomplishing such a task. This technical report describes the process that has been developed in a case study approach. The four case studies that were developed in FY88 include: 1. Human expedition to Phobos 2. Human expeditions to Mars 3. Lunar observatory 4. Lunar outpost to early Mars evolution The final outcome of this effort is a set of programmatic and technical conclusions and recommendations for the following year's work. Volume III is a collection of trade study results, indepth systems assessments, and workshop reports which describe aspects of FY 1988 analyses in more depth.

Interplanetary flight↗
NASA NTRS1988

Exploration Studies Technical Report - Volume 1: Technical Summary

The Office of Exploration (OEXP) at NASA Headquarters has been tasked with defining and recommending alternatives for an early 1990's national decision on a focused program of human exploration of the solar system. The Mission Analysis and System Engineering (MASE) group, which is managed by the Exploration Studies Office at the Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center, is responsible for coordinating the technical studies necessary for accomplishing such a task. This technical report, produced by the MASE, describes the process that has been developed in a case study approach. The four case studies developed in FY88 include: 1. Human Expedition to Phobos 2. Human Expedition to Mars 3. Lunar Observatory 4. Lunar Outpost to Early Mars Evolution The final outcome of this effort is a set of programmatic and technical conclusions and recommendations for the following year's work.

Lunar Mining & Oxygen Production↗