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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Field Measurement of Central CO2 Heat Pump Water Heater for Multifamily Retrofit

Domestic hot water heating of multifamily buildings accounts for a substantial portion of the energy load of existing buildings. This load is made up of both the energy required to produce hot water and the energy needed to maintain the temperature of the heated water within a building’s distribution piping so that heat can be promptly delivered to building occupants as needed. Properly designed heat pump water heater (HPWH) systems have the ability to improve efficiency in both water heating and temperature control operations. Further, CO2 heat pump technology reflects a shift away from traditional refrigerants and toward refrigerants with low global warming potential (GWP). In this paper’s case study, a design consisting of multiple CO2 heat pump water heaters (commonly used in single-family homes) with a novel “swing tank” was proposed to meet the demand for domestic hot water heating and recirculation loop temperature maintenance. The proposed design was applied to the retrofit of a 60-unit, low-rise, multi-family building located in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. The purpose of this paper is to verify the performance of the system including the proposed “swing tank” in a centralized SHW system using CO2 HPWH. It also provides practical information and lessons learned from the retrofit project. Long-term monitoring data showed that the system had a coefficient of performance (COP) of three or greater and provided an average of 20 gallons of hot water per day per apartment. The results of this work indicate that residential-scale CO2 HPWH equipment and a “swing tank” design can efficiently provide domestic hot water heating and temperature maintenance for mid-sized multifamily buildings.

Banks, Adria↗
DOE OSTI2025

Are Baby Boomers' Non-Work Trip-Making Behavior Different than Millennials? Lessons Learned from NHTS Data

This paper presents a comparison between Millennials' and Baby Boomers' non-work travel behaviors using data from the 2017 National Household Travel Survey. Bootstrapped segmented ordered logit models are employed to capture the variability in travel preferences and trip frequency across these generational groups, providing more robust insights into their non-work travel. Millennials, particularly those who work from home, are found to have a negative association with higher non-work trip frequency, whereas Baby Boomers have a positive association with higher non-work trip frequency. The model results show that female Millennials who are heads of households are more likely to make non-work trips but less likely when living in urban areas. Ride sharing among Baby Boomers shows a higher association with non-work travel compared to Millennials. These insights could have implications for travel demand management, as shifting travel patterns necessitate adjustments in infrastructure investments and management strategies to support effective long-term transportation planning.

Patwary, Latif [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000189174928)↗
DOE OSTI2025

DriveSense: A Noise-Resilient Framework for Driving Mode Identification

Accurate drive mode classification is essential for enhancing the reliability and predictive maintenance of heavy-duty electric trucks. This study proposes a novel fuzzy logic-based framework, DriveSense, for real-time drive mode classification, addressing key challenges such as sensor noise, transitional behaviors, and computational efficiency. The proposed approach integrates a two-stage filtering pipeline, combining adaptive outlier removal and a dynamic Kalman filter to enhance data quality. A fuzzy inference system with smoothened trapezoidal membership functions is then applied to classify driving modes into standstill, constant speed, acceleration, and deceleration while mitigating the effects of noise and edge cases. Performance evaluation using real-world and simulated drive cycles demonstrates significant improvements in classification accuracy (up to 97.8%), F1-score (up to 0.97), and robustness against noise, while reducing false positives. Comparative analysis against baseline models, demonstrates DriveSense’s superior accuracy and generalizability across diverse driving patterns. The framework’s lightweight and interpretable fuzzy inference engine operates with low computational latency, ensuring compatibility with real-time embedded systems typical of heavy-duty electric trucks. Moreover, DriveSense models transitional behaviors through overlapping fuzzy sets and adaptive borderline classification logic, enabling smooth identification of subtle shifts such as rolling stops or gradual deceleration. These results highlight DriveSense’s potential to enhance predictive maintenance strategies, reduce downtime, and support scalable, fleet-wide diagnostics.

Kumar, Praveen [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scale up, Field testing, and Optimization of Nontoxic, Durable, Economical Coatings for Control of Biofouling and Corrosion (Abstract Only)

The objective of this project is the technical maturation and demonstration of a durable, economical, and nontoxic coating, Superhydrophobic Lubricant Infused Composite (SLIC), that will prevent fouling organisms from growing on marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) structures and prevent invasive mussels from growing on hydropower structures. SLIC technology was developed and patented by PNNL. It combines multiple antifouling mechanisms to provide excellent antifouling performance, durability, and low hydrodynamic drag without using toxic materials. Advanced proof-of-concept testing and demonstrations completed during a Phase 1 TCF project attracted industry interest and partnerships for this Phase 2 effort focused on maturation of a commercial product. Specific tasks and tests will shift the development emphasis to optimizing formulations, validating antifouling performance to address specific application needs, explore compatibility with other paint systems, develop a product with useful shelf life (in can), and determine curing times and effective applications methodology. Phase 2 efforts will focus upon technology transfer and commercialization of the technology with the industrial team. Industrial partners now include a coatings development specialist (Lorama), hydrophobic material manufacturer and paint developer (Dry Surface Technologies), nontoxic biodegradable lubricants manufacturer (BioBlend), and aquatic applications specialists (Prometheus Innovations, River Connectivity Systems). Engagement with the MHK device developers, the PNNL Marine and Coastal Research Laboratory (MCRL) test site in Sequim WA, Bureau of Reclamation, and Taylor Shellfish throughout the project will provide topical expertise and field test sites that will deliver crucial real-world performance data. Through this Phase 2 effort, SLIC will transition from a Technical Readiness Level (TRL) 5 to TRL 6 and long-term performance data will be acquired through demonstrations. The field test data will allow optimization of SLIC formulation to enhance performance (e.g., durability) and packaging, which are key de-risking activities for technology transfer and ultimately to the production of a viable commercial product.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

From subsidies to stressors: Positively skewed ecological gradients alter biological responses to nutrients in streams

Abstract Subsidy–stress gradients offer a useful framework for understanding ecological responses to perturbation and may help inform ecological metrics in highly modified systems. Historic, region‐wide shifts from bottomland hardwood forest to row crop agriculture can cause positively skewed impact gradients in alluvial plain ecoregions, resulting in tolerant organisms that typically exhibit a subsidy response (increased abundance in response to environmental stressors) shifting to a stress response (declining abundance at higher concentrations). As a result, observed biological tolerance in modified ecosystems may differ from less modified regions, creating significant challenges for detecting biological responses to restoration efforts. Using the agriculturally dominated Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP) ecoregion in Mississippi, USA, as a case study, we tested the hypothesis that macroinvertebrate taxa that typically display a subsidy response to nutrient enrichment in less modified ecoregions (i.e., nutrient‐tolerance) shift to a stress response to increasing nutrients in highly modified watersheds with elevated baseline nutrient conditions (i.e., nutrient intolerance). The abundance and diversity of MAP‐specific intolerant taxa identified with threshold indicator taxa analysis were either unresponsive or exhibited a subsidy response to increasing nutrients in less modified ecoregions in Mississippi with less land alteration and lower nutrient concentrations, but declined at higher concentrations, providing evidence for a stress response to elevated nutrients in the MAP. Additionally, MAP‐specific tolerant and intolerant taxa richness responded to increased nutrients predictably and consistently across space and time within the MAP. However, in MAP streams, elevated specific conductance was predicted to dampen the response of tolerant and intolerant taxa richness to increasing nutrient concentrations, highlighting the importance of considering multistressor interactions when interpreting biological data. Lastly, we demonstrate the efficacy of this approach with sediment bacterial communities characterized with amplicon sequencing, which lack sufficient life history characteristics necessary for the development of multimetric indices. Both macroinvertebrate and bacterial communities responded similarly to increasing nutrient concentrations, suggesting DNA‐based approaches may provide an efficient biological assessment tool for monitoring water quality improvements in highly modified watersheds.

DeVilbiss, Stephen E. [U.S. Geological Survey Lowe↗
DOE OSTI2024

Innovative approaches to neutron beam optimization: A case study of FP14 at LANSCE

This paper describes an experimental method to acquire high resolution energy- and spatially- resolved neutron beam spots using the time-gated neutron imaging system with Teledyne Pi-MAX4 camera. These experimental data offer a unique opportunity for benchmarking beam spot simulations. High-quality simulations depend significantly on a high-fidelity geometry model, which can be challenging for legacy facilities. We informed our MCNPX geometry model by latest metrology survey employing Leica laser tracker ATS600. It gave us a high fidelity description of our facility geometry. Such a robust integration of novel tools and methods yields a previously unattainable level of accuracy in both predicting and capturing neutron beam spots, marking a notable advancement over traditional methods reliant on static image plates. Here, to demonstrate the practical application of these tools, we are showing a non-uniform beam spot challenge at our Flight Path 14 (FP14) at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE). Our precise MCNPX prediction of beam spot shifting as function of neutron energy was confirmed by experimental beam spot measured with extremely high level of detail. Results of this research demonstrate a significant leap in neutron beam optimization at LANSCE and set a new benchmark in beam spot characterization. The advanced methods presented here have potential for adoption at similar research facilities worldwide, aiming at substantial improvement in neutron beam delivery for experiments.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Equipartition and the Temperature of Maximum Density of TIP4P/2005 Water

Here, we simulate TIP4P/2005 water in the temperature range of 257 to 318 K with time-steps δ = 0.25, 0.50, 1.00, 2.00, and 4.00 fs. The density–temperature behavior obtained using 0.25 or 0.50 fs is in excellent agreement with each other but differs from those obtained using time steps that have been shown earlier to lead to a breakdown of equipartition. For δt = 0.25 or 0.50 fs, the temperature of maximum density (TMD) is 277.15 K and the density value is in close agreement with experiments. For δt = 1.00 fs, the TMD is 277.15 K, but the density value is shifted higher. For the other time steps considered here, the TMD is shifted to progressively lower values for longer time steps, a trend that holds for different thermostat/barostat combinations. Enhancing the water–water dispersion interaction, as has been recommended for simulating disordered proteins in TIP4P/2005, degrades the description of the liquid–vapor phase envelope. We present a simple physically transparent explanation that highlights the separation of the time scales between translational and rotational motion. We also develop a metric, χ, that we term the equipartition anomaly, to detect equipartition violations in simulations that include molecules that are treated as rigid objects. Calculating χ is shown to be straightforward and sensitive to equipartition violations. A key takeaway from this study is that using sufficiently short time steps (≤0.5 fs) to preserve equipartition is essential for obtaining meaningful liquid water properties and for producing reliable simulation data, as correct ensemble sampling is fundamental to ensure reproducibility across codes and simulation algorithms.

Asthagiri, Dilipkumar N. [Oak Ridge National Labor↗
DOE OSTI2021

National and Regional Initiatives to Promote Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Through State Energy Offices

The National Association of State Energy Officials (NASEO) worked with the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office (WIP) over a ten year period to provide technical assistance, research and analyses, and enhanced coordination between DOE and the State and Territory Energy Offices. Over the life of the agreement, NASEO worked with WIP and the states to provide statewide strategic energy plan analyses and recommendations, including customized technical assistance to the states; peer to peer financing assistance via NASEO’s Financing Committee and supporting activities; training on core energy policies and programs, including dialogues and resources to support energy-air coordination, a training for new State Energy Office Directors, peer to peer exchange via a rural energy taskforce, and support to states to enhance buildings efficiency, home energy labeling, and technology deployment opportunities; support for State Energy Program metrics; and regional coordination via regional coordinators and peer exchange opportunities both in-person and online. Over the life of the project, the position and role of State Energy Offices within state government has changed, with now 80 percent of State Energy Office Directors serving as their Governor’s energy advisor, or reporting directly to their Governor’s energy advisor. This shift in stature has made it ever more crucial for State Energy Offices to receive timely and relevant technical assistance across a range of energy issue areas. NASEO, in collaboration with WIP, was able to deliver this technical assistance, and energy efficiency and renewable energy deployment has accelerated across the country. The State Energy Office Directors and their staff continue to engage in NASEO’s Committees – many of which were supported through this agreement – and have provided formal and informal feedback on the value of the programs supported through this award (e.g., reporting via survey increased understanding of their roles and technical assistance offerings provided by WIP and NASEO following the New Director Trainings). Moreover, resources developed through this award (e.g., Comprehensive State Energy Planning Guidelines, State Energy Loan Fund Database, Rural Data Resources for State Energy Planning and Programs, The Value of Adding home Energy Score to Low-Income Energy Efficiency Programs, etc.) have been cited by states as instrumental to their understanding of specific energy issue areas and in many cases led directly to enhanced program design within a state (e.g. Iowa citing their review of NASEO’s Comprehensive State Energy Planning Guidelines as a necessary first step in their planning process, later following may of the steps outlined in the guidelines). The priorities of the states and federal government have evolved over the last decade, with an increasing focus on climate mitigation and adaptation, equity impacts and considerations, energy security and resilience, and enhanced energy efficiency and renewable energy technology deployment, but the roots of these new priorities are based in the state and federal policies and programs, and research and analyses, that were supported in part through this award and other complementary initiatives. NASEO looks forward to continuing to support the states, and collaborate and coordinate with DOE, as we build on this important foundation in the years ahead.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Open Building Operating System: An Open-Source Grid Responsive Control Platform for Buildings

Grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) with flexible loads are a promising method to decarbonize buildings, shift loads during peak hours, and lower energy use and electricity costs. Despite the promising benefits of GEBs, automation systems that manage flexible loads in response to energy prices or other grid signals are still uncommon in small and medium commercial buildings. Recent literature demonstrates such control solutions, but they often rely on custom integrations lacking the tools and drivers needed for scalability. To address these gaps, our team has created a fully open-source software stack capable of integrating heterogeneous flexible building loads and implementing integrated portable control applications called the Open Building Operating System (OpenBOS). The software can be deployed over existing control architecture with a small capital cost. OpenBOS leverages semantic models, which have been the subject of recent investigations to facilitate application portability. The use of semantic data reduces the labor and expense required to deploy and update smart control applications, increasing scalability. In this paper, the semantic modeling schema "Brick" was used, but the proposed approach can also be applied to ASHRAE standard 223P, when released. This paper describes the methodology and software components of OpenBOS and demonstrates its functionality with a rule-based demand flexibility control application configured using a semantic model. This application was tested at a real building in NY that uses a dual-fuel heating system made up of five ductless heat pump mini-splits and a central furnace serving a single zone. The demonstration reduced electricity costs at the site by 27%, demand during a shed event by 49%, and furnace usage by 35%.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Constraining the Dynamo Layers in Jupiter and Saturn with Observations and Scaling Laws

The dipole-dominated magnetic fields of Jupiter and Saturn provide evidence for active dynamos operating within their deep interiors, yet the depth of the convecting dynamo layers remains poorly constrained. While magnetic field observations, gravity data, and interior models each provide partial insight, they have not been combined into a single, self-consistent picture of the internal structure. Here, we develop a framework that links observed magnetic field strength with intrinsic heat flux and gravity-constrained interior structure using energy-based dynamo scaling laws. By relating the axial magnetic field strength to the convective power, we infer the radial thickness of the dynamo-generating region for both Jupiter and Saturn. The constants of proportionality in the scaling relations are derived using independent constraints from Earth observations, Jupiter observations, and numerical dynamo simulations. Applied to Jupiter, this framework shows how the inferred dynamo layer thickness is coupled to the outer boundary of the dynamo region. Thinner dynamo layers are predicted when the outer boundary shifts to shallower depths, and no solutions are possible when the outer boundary is less than 73% of Jupiter’s radius. These results constrain plausible geometries for future numerical dynamo simulations. Extending the analysis to Saturn, we find a thick, deep-seated dynamo layer with an outer radius at 42% of the radius to be most plausible. An alternative solution with an inner radius of the dynamo region at 60% of the planetary radius, as suggested by ring seismology models, requires a very thin dynamo layer, occupying only 2%–3% of the total radius.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enhancement of phase change material hysteresis model: A case study of modeling building envelope in EnergyPlus

Nowadays, buildings are expected to offer demand side services to the power grid to enhance the electrical load flexibility, which leads to the concepts of grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs). Phase change material (PCM)-based thermal energy storage has seen increasing attention in recent years for peak load shifting of grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs). Numerical models are critical tools for design and evaluation of PCM-integrated systems. Most industrial-grade PCMs are reported to melt/freeze over a temperature range instead of at a unique temperature. Such thermal hysteresis effect significantly affects the reliability of simulation results because not only the heat transfer process depends on melting and freezing temperatures, the PCM thermal properties change significantly during the phase change process as well. This study is aimed to develop a model for the PCMs used in the building envelope with the capability to accurately simulate hysteretic behaviors. Further, this model is based on a two-phase assumption and is implemented in a whole building energy performance simulation program (i.e., EnergyPlus). A comparison between numerical results and experimental data shows that during a complete phase transition, the two-phase model could achieve a good agreement with the experimental data. During a partial phase transition, the two-phase model could lead to significant improvements compared to other alternative PCM models, including the existing PCM model in EnergyPlus. Last, whole building simulations were performed to study this model's performance regarding heating/cooling loads and zone mean air temperature of a given building. The results show that the difference in hourly heating/cooling loads introduced by the models was less than 1% in design conditions, while significant changes were observed in both hourly heating/cooling loads and zone mean air temperature when the PCM envelope underwent partial phase transition processes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seasonal changes in GPP/SIF ratios and their climatic determinants across the Northern Hemisphere

Satellite-derived sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has been increasingly used for estimating gross primary production (GPP). However, the relationship between SIF and GPP has not been well defined, impeding the translation of satellite observed SIF to GPP. Previous studies have generally assumed a linear relationship between SIF and GPP at daily and longer time scales, but support for this assumption is lacking. Here, we used the GPP/SIF ratio to investigate seasonal variations in the relationship between SIF and GPP over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Based on multiple SIF products and MODIS and FLUXCOM GPP data, we found strong seasonal hump-shaped patterns for the GPP/SIF ratio over northern latitudes, with higher values in the summer than in the spring or autumn. This hump-shaped GPP/SIF seasonal variation was confirmed by examining different SIF products and was evident for most vegetation types except evergreen broadleaf forests. The seasonal amplitude of the GPP/SIF ratio decreased from the boreal/arctic region to drylands and the tropics. For most of the NH, the lowest GPP/SIF values occurred in October or September, while the maximum GPP/SIF values were evident in June and July. The most pronounced seasonal amplitude of GPP/SIF occurred in intermediate temperature and precipitation ranges. GPP/SIF was positively related to temperature in the early and late parts of the growing season, but not during the peak growing months. These shifting relationships between temperature and GPP/SIF across different months appeared to play a key role in the seasonal dynamics of GPP/SIF. Several mechanisms may explain the patterns we observed, and future research encompassing a broad range of climate and vegetation settings is needed to improve our understanding of the spatial and temporal relationships between SIF and GPP. Nonetheless, the strong seasonal variation in GPP/SIF we identified highlights the importance of incorporating this behavior into SIF-based GPP estimations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

LCIO

Performance of file systems shift during their life cycles. Evaluating this performance change over time is not trivial. Complexity arises in the interplay between external (i.e. application I/O workloads) and internal (i.e. the filesystem state) factors. Many benchmarks can test how a filesystem performs at the current snapshot state, but to observe the change over time necessitates that the filesystem state mutate (age) between benchmark runs. For a large-scale HPC parallel filesystem, the sheer scale and amount of interacting components during I/O operations magnify these challenges. LCIO addresses the question - how will the filesystem perform at different stages of its life cycle? LCIO is a synthetic benchmark, which provides the file system aging process to increase the amount of information that existing benchmarks like IOR and MDTest yield, as well as provide additional points of data that will be useful to system architects and engineers.

Bachstein, Matthew↗
DOE OSTI2023

Methods for Continuously Resolving Spectral Shifts in Distributed Optical Fiber Sensors Irradiated to Extreme Neutron Fluence

Optical frequency domain reflectometry (OFDR) is a technique for interrogating distributed optical fiber sensors (DOFS) and involves correlating changes in the Rayleigh backscatter fingerprint for a fiber under test (FUT) with a reference measurement. Recently, under the WIRE-21 experiment sponsored by Nuclear Science User Facilities (NSUF) and performed at the High-Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), silica optical fibers were irradiated to a fast neutron fluence of 1x10^21 n/cm^2/s at temperatures from 200--400 C. As in the cases of high-temperature and high-strain conditions, such high levels of neutron bombardment result in a highly dynamic RBS that evades analysis with conventional methods. This work describes the further development and application of graphical signal processing techniques applied to OFDR-based distributed optical fiber sensors specifically deployed in in-pile applications. While the signal processing techniques developed in this work are applied to DOFS in nuclear environments, they provide a general framework for the analysis of OFDR measurements and a tangible method to yield higher quality data, without imposing additional hardware requirements.

Sweeney, Dan↗
DOE OSTI2021

Topographical shifts in fine root lifespan in a mixed, mesic temperate forest

Root lifespan, often is estimated in landscape- and ecosystem-level carbon models using linear approximations. In water manipulation experiments, fine root lifespan can vary with soil water content. Soil water content is generally structured by complex topography, which is largely unaccounted for in landscape- and ecosystem-scale carbon models. Topography governs the range of soil water content experienced by roots which may impact their lifespan. We hypothesized that root lifespan varied nonlinearly across a temperate, mesic, forested catchment due to differences in soil water content associated with topographic position. We expected regions of the landscape that were too wet or too dry would have soils that were not optimal for roots and thus result in shorter root lifespans. Specifically, we hypothesized that root lifespan would be longest in areas that consistently had soil water content in the middle of the soil water content spectrum, while in soils at either very low or very high soil water content, root lifespan would be relatively short. We tested this hypothesis by collecting and analyzing two years of minirhizotron and soil moisture data in plots widely distributed in the Shale Hills catchment of the Susquehanna-Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory in Pennsylvania. We found that fine root lifespans were longer in traditionally wetter topographic regions, but detected no short term (biweekly) effect of soil moisture on root lifespan. Additionally, depth in soil, soil series, slope face orientation, and season of birth strongly affected root lifespans across the catchment. In contrast, lifespan was unaffected by root diameter or mycorrhizal association. Failure to account for these variables could result in erroneous estimates of fine root lifespan and, consequentially, carbon flux in temperate forested regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tropical intertidal microbiome response to the 2024 Marine Honour oil spill

Marine fuel oil (MFO) spills in tropical coastal environments are under-characterized despite increasing risk from maritime activities. Microbial and geochemical responses to the June 2024 Marine Honour MFO spill on Singapore's intertidal sediments were analyzed in real time over 185 days. Using metagenomics and hydrocarbon profiling, microbial community shifts and hydrocarbon degradation were quantified across visibly oiled (high-impact) and clean (low-impact) sites. Microbiomes at all sites adapted rapidly to the spill through increased diversity and abundance of genes encoding alkane and aromatic compound degradation, detoxification, and biosurfactant production. The dominant hydrocarbon-degrading bacteria differed markedly from those reported in other crude oil spills and in regions with different climates. Oil deposition intensity strongly influenced microbial succession and hydrocarbon-degrading gene profiles, and this reflected early toxicity constraints in heavily oiled areas. The persistence of hydrocarbon degradation genes beyond hydrocarbon detection in sediments suggested long-term functional priming may occur. The study provides novel genome-resolved insight into the microbial response to MFO pollution, advances understanding of marine environmental biodegradation, and provides urgently needed baseline data for oil spill response strategies in Southeast Asia and beyond.

Coastal pollution↗
DOE OSTI2025

Identifying spatiotemporal patterns in opioid vulnerability: investigating the links between disability, prescription opioids and opioid-related mortality

Background: The opioid crisis remains one of the most daunting and complex public health problems in the United States. This study investigates the national epidemic by analyzing vulnerability profiles of three key factors: opioid-related mortality rates, opioid prescription dispensing rates, and disability rank ordered rates. Methods: This study utilizes county level data, spanning the years 2014 through 2020, on the rates of opioid-related mortality, opioid prescription dispensing, and disability. To successfully estimate and predict trends in these opioid-related factors, we augment the Kalman Filter with a novel spatial component. To define opioid vulnerability profiles, we create heat maps of our filter’s predicted rates across the nation’s counties and identify the hotspots. In this context, hotspots are defined on a year-by-year basis as counties with rates in the top 5% nationally. Results: Our spatial Kalman filter demonstrates strong predictive performance. From 2014 to 2018, these predictions highlight consistent spatiotemporal patterns across all three factors, with Appalachia distinguished as the nation’s most vulnerable region. Starting in 2019 however, the dispensing rate profiles undergo a dramatic and chaotic shift. Conclusions: The initial primary drivers of opioid abuse in the Appalachian region were likely prescription opioids; however, it now appears that abuse is sustained by illegal drugs. Additionally, we find that the disabled subpopulation may be more at risk of opioid-related mortality than the general population. Public health initiatives must extend beyond controlling prescription practices to address the transition to and impact of illicit drug use.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Envisioning urban environments resilient to vector-borne diseases: a protocol to study dengue in Vietnam

Transmitted primarily by Aedes aegypti (Ae. aegypti) and Aedes albopictus (Ae. albopictus), arboviral diseases pose a major global public health threat. Dengue, chikungunya, and zika are increasingly prevalent in Southeast Asia. Among other arboviruses, dengue and zika are becoming more common in Central and South America. Given human encroachment into previously uninhabited, often deforested areas, to provide new housing in regions of population expansion, conceptualizing built urban environments in a novel way is urgently needed to safeguard against the growing climate change-driven threat of vector-borne diseases. By understanding the spread from a One Health perspective, enhanced control and prevention can be achieved. This is particularly important considering that climate change is likely to significantly impact the persistence of ponded water where mosquitoes breed due to increasing temperature and shifting rainfall patterns with regard to magnitude, duration, frequency, and season. Models can incorporate aquatic mosquito stages and adult spatial dynamics when habitats are heterogeneously available, thereby including dispersal and susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) epidemiology. Coupled with human population distribution (density, locations), atmospheric conditions (air temperature, precipitation), and hydrological conditions (soil moisture distribution, ponding persistence in topographic depressions), modeling has improved predictive ability for infection rates. However, it has not informed interventional approaches from an urban environment perspective which considers the role of ponds/lakes that support green spaces, the density of population that enables rapid spread of disease, and varying micro-habitats for various mosquito stages under climate change. Here, for an example of dengue in Vietnam, a preventive and predictive approach to design resilient urban environments is proposed, which uses data from rapidly expanding metropolitan communities to learn continually. This protocol deploys computational approaches including simulation and machine learning/artificial intelligence, underpinned by surveillance and medical data for validation and adaptive learning. Its application may best inform urban planning in low-middle income countries in tropical zones where arboviral pathogens are prevalent.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗