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Measuring Flexibility through Reduction Potential

As electrical loads, electric vehicles (EVs) are distinguished in many cases by their substantial flexibility. Harnessing this flexibility, however, requires a precise characterization of its timing and degree. Current approaches to flexibility characterization tend to be limited either by the complexity of their representation or their inability to capture aggregate flexibility across multiple vehicles. In this paper, we present the reduction potential matrix, a novel metric capturing fleet-level EV load flexibility while being both straightforward to calculate and intuitive to interpret. We use the metric to quantify flexibility for two operationally distinct commercial groups: freight vehicles and transit buses. While we find that both vehicle groups have substantial flexibility, its timing, magnitude, and duration varies across the groups. We describe how this variability translates into variation in the each group's role as a grid resource, and conclude with a discussion of how system planners, fleet operators, and other stakeholders can use the novel metric to cultivate symbiosis between vehicles and the grid.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

When and Why Hiring and Training Occur: A Survey of Building Efficiency Contractors

As state and local governments, along with homeowners, work to enhance building energy performance, a sufficiently skilled energy-efficiency workforce is essential for implementing solutions at scale. In recent years, employers in the energy efficiency sector, including building performance contractors, have frequently reported challenges finding qualified workers. Additionally, as building performance technologies evolve and become more sophisticated, current workers need to acquire new skills and practices to maintain high-quality work. This study surveyed 209 contractors involved in building energy performance projects across 37 U.S. states, Washington, D.C., Guam, and the Marshall Islands. The survey aimed to understand their experiences in the labor market, their business practices, and their decision-making processes when hiring new workers and training existing employees. The findings highlight contractors' motivations and considerations in hiring and training, as well as the most significant challenges they face in the labor market. These insights can help workforce development practitioners design training programs that are aligned with workforce needs and responsive to employer concerns.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Dynamical Models of the Solar System Formation and Evolution

Mark Lewis has extended his them is work by completing a series of N-body simulations of a narrow ring that: is in the location of Saturn's F-ring and is perturbed by a single satellite comparable to Prometheus, but on a circular orbit. We had previously shown how the satellite perturbations can cause a broadly distributed sparse population of ring particles to become concentrated into narrow rings that can be maintained outside of any resonance location. For low optical depths, the collisions between ring particles are highly localized in the peaks of the satellite wakes. The inelastic collisions therefore occur at a particular orbital phase angle so as to damp the azimuthal component of the relative velocities. Since particle positions are not changed by collisions, the semimajor axes of the particles are shifted toward the actual particle positions where the collisions occur. Thus, negative radial diffusion can occur while conserving orbital angular momentum so long as the forced eccentricity is continually re-excited by the satellite. We speculated that the separation between the final ringlets was largely determined by the magnitude of the forced eccentricities induced by the satellite at closest approach. We carried out a series of simulations with a variety of different satellite masses in order to vary the magnitude of the forced eccentricity. We found that indeed the final spacing of the ringlets does increase with the magnitude of the forced eccentricity (Lewis and Stewart 2002). This occurs because neighboring eccentric ringlets drift out of phase with one another due to Keplerian shear and eventually collide with one another, leading to a smaller number of more widely spaced ringlets, The time scale required to form narrow ringlets in these simulations is much shorter than one would expect from standard theories based upon the orbit-averaged torque produced by multiple passes by the satellite. We find that the initial ringlets form in less than two synodic periods and the final state is typically reached in 10 to 20 synodic periods. These studies move us closer to understanding the significantly more complex system of Saturn's F ring, where the perturbation magnitude varies over short temporal and spatial time scales due to the orbital eccentricities of the perturbing satellite. We are currently extending the simulation to allow for an eccentric orbit of the satellite.

Stewart, Glen R.↗

Study of the Mu2e sensitivity to the $\mu^-\rightarrow e^+$ conversion process

The Mu2e experiment at Fermilab (Batavia, IL) will search for the coherent neutrinoless conversion of a muon into an electron in the electric field of an aluminum atom. The conversion process results in a monochromatic electron with energy slightly below the muon rest mass ($E_e= 104.97$ MeV). The experiment goal is to improve the previous measurement by four orders of magnitude and reach a single event sensitivity of $3 \times 10^{-17} $ on the conversion rate with respect to the muon capture rate. \\ The experiment will deliver a very intense pulsed negative muon beam to an aluminum target to achieve a total number of $10^{18}$ stopped muons in three years of running. Production and transport of the muons are accomplished with a sophisticated magnetic system comprised of a Production, a Transport and a Detector solenoid, with the last one hosting a Straw-tube Tracker and a Crystal Calorimeter. The entire detector region is surrounded by a Cosmic Ray Veto system. Mu2e is und er construction at the Muon Campus of Fermilab. \\ The INFN italian group is responsible for the design and construction of the crystal calorimeter, which plays a crucial role in the Mu2e measurement, providing particle identification capabilities fundamental for the rejection of the different background sources that can mimic a conversion electron. The calorimeter information allows also to improve the tracking performances it provides a fast standalone trigger for the experiment.\\ After a long R\&D phase, the final drawings see a calorimeter comprised of 1348 pure CsI crystals arranged in two annular disks. Each crystal is readout by two custom UV-extended Silicon Photomultipliers (SiPMs). Performances of the selected components were verified with an electron beam test, carried out in 2017 at the Beam Test Facility (BTF) at the National Laboratories of Frascati, on a large size prototype of 51 crystals and 102 SiPMs, confirming excellent energy ($\sigma_{E}/E = \mathcal{O }(10\%)$) and timing ($\sigma_{T} <500$ ps) resolutions in a! greement with the Mu2e specifications.\\ In the first chapters of this thesis, I describe my involvement in the calorimeter activities, with particular emphasis on the data analysis of the prototype energy response and resolution, that I was personally leading. Moreover, a description of the tuning of the simulation and the careful data-MC comparison is also reported.\\ An auxiliary measurement that can be performed with Mu2e is the search for a Lepton Number Violation (LNV) process where the negatively charged muon converts, without neutrinos, into a positron, $\mu ^{-} +N(A,Z) \rightarrow $ e$^+ +N(A,Z-2)$. At the moment of writing, Neutrinoless Double Beta Decay (0$\nu \beta \beta$) has set the most stringent limit on the LNV processes (T$^{0\nu \beta \beta}_{1/2} > 1.1 \times 10^{26} $ yr at 90$\%$ CL) with the GERDA experiment. In 0$\nu \beta \beta$ a pair of free electrons is created in the transformation from a nucleus $(A, Z)$ into its daughter $(A, Z + 2)$, namely: $(A,Z)\rightarrow (A, Z+2) =2 e^-$. Similar transitions could proceed through the emission of a pair of positrons, double electron capture (EC), or EC and single emission of a positron, with the nucleus changing from $(A, Z)$ to $(A, Z - 2)$. All these variations are equally interesting when discussing of new Physics, since they all manifest a non-conservation of the number of leptons.\\ Moreover, recent studies show that, because of flavor effect, off-diagonal processes, such as the $\mu^- -e^+$ conversion, can have their rate enhanced with respect to processes occurring in the $e-e$ sector.\\ Mu2e will search for $\mu^- + Al(27,13) \rightarrow e^+ +Na(27,11)$, only considering ground state transition, producing a conversion positron with energy $E_{e^+}= 92.32 $ MeV.\\ This thesis is focused on this search. In particular, I developed an algorithm to account for the radiative corrections to be applied to the conversion positrons that resulted in a few percent reduction in s ignal acceptance.\\ One of the most prominent background to ! this sear! ch is the Radiative Muon Capture (RMC) $ \mu+ N(Z,A)\rightarrow \gamma + \nu_{\mu} + N(Z-1,A)$. The produced photon can convert, virtually or in the detector materials (in the following referred as internal or external conversion respectively) in an electron-positron pair, producing positrons with energies approaching the expected conversion energy. Experimental results from previous experiments indicate the RMC endpoint ($\kmax$) to be of $\sim$ 90 MeV. A precise modeling of this background is relevant due to the proximity of the photon spectrum endpoint to the positron conversion energy. The calorimeter group is obviously interested to reconstruct the RMC distribution having also the opportunity to improve the current knowledge of the process. \\ A toy MC has been developed to evaluate the number of $e^+$ from external RMC background in the signal window. Knowing this value and ev...

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Real-Time Detection of Dust Devils from Pressure Readings

A method for real-time detection of dust devils at a given location is based on identifying the abrupt, temporary decreases in atmospheric pressure that are characteristic of dust devils as they travel through that location. The method was conceived for use in a study of dust devils on the Martian surface, where bandwidth limitations encourage the transmission of only those blocks of data that are most likely to contain information about features of interest, such as dust devils. The method, which is a form of intelligent data compression, could readily be adapted to use for the same purpose in scientific investigation of dust devils on Earth. In this method, the readings of an atmospheric- pressure sensor are repeatedly digitized, recorded, and processed by an algorithm that looks for extreme deviations from a continually updated model of the current pressure environment. The question in formulating the algorithm is how to model current normal observations and what minimum magnitude deviation can be considered sufficiently anomalous as to indicate the presence of a dust devil. There is no single, simple answer to this question: any answer necessarily entails a compromise between false detections and misses. For the original Mars application, the answer was sought through analysis of sliding time windows of digitized pressure readings. Windows of 5-, 10-, and 15-minute durations were considered. The windows were advanced in increments of 30 seconds. Increments of other sizes can also be used, but computational cost increases as the increment decreases and analysis is performed more frequently. Pressure models were defined using a polynomial fit to the data within the windows. For example, the figure depicts pressure readings from a 10-minute window wherein the model was defined by a third-degree polynomial fit to the readings and dust devils were identified as negative deviations larger than both 3 standard deviations (from the mean) and 0.05 mbar in magnitude. An algorithm embodying the detection scheme of this example was found to yield a miss rate of just 8 percent and a false-detection rate of 57 percent when evaluated on historical pressure-sensor data collected by the Mars Pathfinder lander. Since dust devils occur infrequently over the course of a mission, prioritizing observations that contain successful detections could greatly conserve bandwidth allocated to a given mission. This technique can be used on future Mars landers and rovers, such as Mars Phoenix and the Mars Science Laboratory.

Wagstaff, Kiri↗

Predicting Biological Cleanliness: An Empirical Bayes Approach for Spacecraft Bioburden Accounting

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Bayesian Framework for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Fire Station #1 Area, SWMU 116 Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS) Site Assessment Progress Report Kennedy Space Center, Florida

This Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS) Site Assessment (SA) Progress Report (SAPR) discusses the investigation activities and findings for the Fire Station #1 (FS1) Area (formerly known as Fire Station #4) located at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida (Figure 1-1). This site has been designated Solid Waste Management Unit (SWMU) 116 under KSC’s Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Corrective Action Program. This PFAS SA is being managed under SWMU 116 as the fire station was identified as a potential source of PFAS to the environment. This PFAS SAPR was prepared by Tetra Tech, Inc., for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) under Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity Contract 80KSC019D0011-80KSC019F0070. This is the first progress report to document on-going SA activities; supplemental progress reports will be provided as additional data is collected. During the SA, a total of six soil, 48 groundwater direct push technology (DPT), eight groundwater monitoring well, and one surface water sample were collected between October 2021 and March 2022. The samples were analyzed for 28 PFAS compounds using the Department of Defense Quality Systems Manual-compliant Method. SA sample results were used along with historical results to evaluate the extent of PFAS impacts to the environment in the FS1 Area. Data generated to date and prior results were screened against the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) May 2022 Tap Water Regional Screening Levels (RSLs) for groundwater and residential RSLs for soil (hazard quotient of 0.1). Surface water results were screened against the State of Florida Human Health Surface Water Screening Levels (SWSLs). Overall, results from the SA showed exceedances of the applicable screening criteria for soil, groundwater and surface water. Considering the current and historical dataset, perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) is the prevalent PFAS compound, which is indicative of AFFF releases. Based on results of the SA, additional groundwater DPT and surface water sampling should be considered, focused on evaluating surface water bodies in the southeast portion of the Industrial Area, which discharge into the Banana River. Additionally, installation of monitoring wells should be considered to evaluate the interaction between groundwater and surface water in the FS1 Area.

PFAS↗

Thermoelectric heating and cooling–integrated dishwasher with thermal energy storage

Household dishwashers must address several performance goals: maximize washing and drying performance, while minimizing cycle duration, energy consumption, and water consumption. This study develops and examines a novel thermoelectric heating and cooling (TEHC) system with thermal energy storage applied to a household dishwasher (DW), aiming to improve the energy and drying performance of a commercially-available dishwasher while maintaining its washing performance, water consumption, and cycle duration. Experimental testing conducted on the novel TEHC-DW system demonstrates an 8.7% reduction in total energy consumption, lowering the per-cycle usage to 0.952 kWh, and a 40% reduction in energy consumption for internal water heating. The novel TEHC-DW system also demonstrates better drying performance, shortening the drying time by 42% to reach the same remaining moisture content as a commercially-available system. In addition, a resistance-capacitance network model is developed that predicts total drying time, total energy consumption, and the highest temperature reached in the tub (53.4 °C). The model accuracy is validated with experimental data (within ±1 K), and the model functions as a design tool via a parametric study to evaluate the next-generation design and the effect of the number of thermoelectric modules and thermoelectric driving force (i.e., current). Overall, this study demonstrates the potential for TEHC technology to improve energy efficiency and drying performance in household dishwashers.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Design of a Compact Dry Cooler With an Aluminum Heat Exchanger Core for a Supercritical CO2 Power Cycle Is Evaluated for a Concentrating Solar Power Application

Abstract As the supercritical CO2 power cycle develops and the component technologies mature, there is still a need to reduce the associated capital and operating costs to maintain a competitive levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) in order to enter the market. When considering concentrating solar power (CSP) coupled with an sCO2 power block and sensible thermal storage, the technology presents a clean source for utility-scale power generation to support baseload or peak-load electrical demand. However, the LCOE of the technology is still considered higher than the competing technologies and should be reduced to better compete in the market; 2030 targets for dispatchable solar plants are 5¢/kWh for baseload CSP and 10¢/kWh for peaker plants, as set by the United States Department of Energy. In response to this need, this study is targeting improvements in the power cycle precooler to reduce power block contribution to LCOE. This study considers a dry cooler, as CSP plants are sensitive to water consumption because many installations are slated for remote or arid locations where solar irradiance is very high, but water is scarce. Furthermore, the power block footprint for an sCO2 system is quite compact, especially as compared to a steam cycle. Therefore, there is interest in installing a more compact dry cooler that is proportional to the reduced footprint sCO2 power block, while conventional dry coolers are an order of magnitude larger. The competing goals of size, performance, and cost were considered in this study to develop a compact dry cooler that can easily be packaged with the power block, significantly reducing the installation and transport cost compared to the current state of the art, while maintaining or improving upon the heat transfer performance and impact on plant LCOE. This paper details the high-level findings of a large dry cooler sensitivity study for design point selection, design of the compact dry cooler, expected year-round performance for the dry cooler and the power cycle, and the predicted LCOE for a 30-year plant life. It was found that an aluminum heat exchanger core can be suitably designed to meet the pressure and temperature requirements for a precooler in an sCO2 recompression Brayton cycle. The dry cooler assembly was found to have improved heat transfer performance, allowing for increased cycle efficiencies and a reduced plant LCOE. When coupled with a centrifugal blower and compact transition duct, the dry cooler assembly was able to reduce the installation footprint by over 50%.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Design and Implementation of Smart Buildings: A Review of Current Research Trend

The building sector is one of the largest contributors to the world’s total energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Advancements in building energy technologies have played a critical role in enhancing the energy sustainability of the built environment. Extensive research and new techniques in energy and environmental systems for buildings have recently emerged to address the global challenges. This study reviews existing articles in the literature, mostly since 2000, to explore technological advancement in building energy and environmental systems that can be applied to smart homes and buildings. This review study focuses on an overview of the design and implementation of energy-related smart building technologies, including energy management systems, renewable energy applications, and current advanced smart technologies for optimal function and energy-efficient performance. To review the advancement in building energy-related technologies, a systematic review process is adopted based on available published reviews and research types of articles. Review-type articles are first assessed to explore the current literature on the relevant keywords and to capture major research scopes. Research-type papers are then examined to investigate associated keywords and work scopes, including objectives, focuses, limitations, and future needs. Throughout the comprehensive literature review, this study identifies various techniques of smart home/building applications that have provided detailed solutions or guidelines in different applications to enhance the quality of people’s daily activities and the sustainability of the built environmental system. This paper shows trends in human activities and technology advancements in digital solutions with energy management systems and practical designs. Understanding the overall energy flow between a building and its environmentally connected systems is also important for future buildings and community levels. This paper assists in understanding the pathway toward future smart homes/buildings and their technologies for researchers in related research fields.

renewable system integration↗

Soft costs and EVSE – Knowledge gaps as a barrier to successful projects

There has been a recent push to increase access to electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure. The National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) program, part of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) has made significant funding available for major charging infrastructure projects along state thruways, and many state and local incentives exist for EV owners to install chargers in their homes. However, deployment of these chargers has not kept up with demand, primarily due to issues in project planning, permitting processes, and unforeseen delays. This paper serves as a review of the current understanding of these and other non-hardware costs in EV charging infrastructure projects (collectively known as “soft costs”). We found that soft costs in EV charging infrastructure projects are not well understood. Specifically, there is little agreement on how soft costs should be categorized and tracked, and less agreement still on best practices for controlling these costs and lowering barriers to infrastructure deployment. A broader review of EV charging infrastructure cost analyses shows that these costs can have significant impacts on project outcomes. EV charging infrastructure projects may be able to examine the success of the solar industry in lowering soft costs, and a similar effort may lower project costs significantly. Further work on standardizing and collecting data on EV charging infrastructure costs is required to begin addressing and controlling these costs.

32 - ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZA↗

Isothermal Compressor Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations (Final Report)

Carnot Compression is a startup company developing an innovative technology for air and gas compression. This technology is inherently oil-free and isothermal due to the use of water to simultaneously compress and cool the gas throughout the process. Isothermal gas compression eliminates the need to cool the compressed gas so it may lead to significant energy savings. The development of Carnot’s isothermal compressor is limited by the lack of insight into the flow and detailed behavior of the fluids (water and air/gas) inside the air end. Previous and current attempts at Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations by Carnot have been unable to provide the level of accuracy required to use simulations for technology development. In this Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) project, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) used the CFD package Star-CCM+ to successfully develop a CFD simulation, providing the much-needed insight required to speed up the development. The work is intended to enable Carnot Compression to unlock its technology potential to a level sufficient for commercialization of the intended first product. The work will also prepare Carnot to scale the technology to much larger and more energy intensive applications, positioning it to broaden the product applications. Successful development of the technology has the potential to result in 20% or more efficiency gains for compression processes, or about $3 billion in annual energy savings potential for the U.S. alone.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

High Throughput Coefficient Thermal Expansion Testing Utilizing Digital Image Correlation

Dr. Fitzgerald, a postdoc at Sandia National Laboratories, works in a materials of mechanics group characterizing material properties of ductile materials. Her presentation focuses specifically on increasing throughput of coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) measurements with the use of optical strain measurements, called digital image correlation (DIC). Currently, the coefficient of thermal expansion is found through a time intensive process called dilatometry. There are multiple types of dilatometers. One type, a double push rod mechanical dilatometer, uses and LVDT to measure the expansion of a specimen in one direction. It uses a reference material with known properties to determine the CTE of the specimen in question. Testing about 500 samples using the double push rod mechanical dilatometer would take about 2 years if testing Monday through Friday, because the reference material needs to be at a constant temperature and heating must done slowly to ensure no thermal gradients across the rod. A second type, scissors type dilatometer, pinches a sample using a “scissor-like” appendage that also uses a LVDT to measure thermal expansion as the sample is heated. Finally, laser dilatometry, was created to provide a non-contact means to measure thermal expansion. This process greatly reduces the time required to setup a measurement but is still only able to measure one sample at a time. The time required to test 500 samples gets reduced to 3.5 weeks. Additionally, to measure expansion in different directions, multiple lasers must be used. Dr. Fitzgerald solved this conundrum by using an optical measurement technique called digital image correlation to create strain maps in multiple orientations as well as measuring multiple samples at once. Using this technique, Dr. Fitzgerald can test 500 samples, conservatively, in 2 days.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Pterodactyl: Effects of 3D Thermal Analysis on Thermal Protection System Design for a Flap Control System

NASA’s Pterodactyl project has investigated the use of a novel multi-flap control system to facilitate precision targeting of Deployable Entry Vehicles (DEVs) during atmospheric re-entry [1]. DEVs can be folded to fit within the limiting cross-sectional area of current launch systems. Once deployed, the vehicle expands and settles into a pre-determined blunt body shape. While DEVs provide a more efficient solution to increased payload sizes, the absence of a back shell does not allow for easy integration of reaction control systems, which have historically been used for guidance and control (G&C) of rigid aeroshells during entry. One DEV solution, called the Adaptable, Deployable Entry Placement Technology (ADEPT), employs mechanically deployed gores. This provided the Pterodactyl project with the opportunity to incorporate a rib-mounted, 8-flap control system for G&C. Each flap can deflect independently in and out of the hypersonic flow, requiring TPS for the flaps. Previous work within the Pterodactyl project utilized 1D thermal analysis to design the TPS. However, the Pterodactyl project was concerned that the base level tools for 1D thermal analysis were not accounting for the 3D effects of the large heating gradients along and across the flaps, the in-depth in-plane conductivity of the TPS and internal structure, and the effects of the small edge radii at the neck of the flaps. This paper discusses the methodology and results of a 3D thermal analysis of the flap control system. Additionally, the results from the 1D and 3D thermal analyses are compared. It is found that elements of the original design that resulted from the 1D analysis may be overly conservative, and implementation of a 3D thermal analysis indicated a reduction in TPS thickness is feasible. This result helps to reduce the mechanical integration complexity of the flap at the rib tip and realizes potential mass savings.

Sarah N D'Souza↗

What does the future hold for utility electricity efficiency programs?

Here, this study develops projections of future spending and savings from electricity efficiency programs funded by electric utility customers in the United States through 2030 based on three scenarios. Our analysis relies on detailed bottom-up modeling of current state energy efficiency policies, demand-side management and integrated resource plans, and regulatory decisions. The three scenarios represent a range of potential outcomes given the policy environment at the time of the study and uncertainties in the broader economic and state policy environment in each state. We project spending to increase to $8.6 billion in 2030 in the medium scenario, about a 45 percent increase relative to 2016 spending. In the high case, annual spending increases to $11.1 billion in 2030 and remains relatively flat in the low case ($6.8 billion in 2030). Our analysis suggests that electricity efficiency programs funded by utility customers will continue to impact load growth significantly at least through 2030, as savings as a percent of retail sales are forecast at 0.7 percent in the medium scenario and 0.98 percent in the high scenario.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Development of National New Construction Weighting Factors for the Commercial Building Prototype Analyses (2008-2022)

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) tasked Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) with updating commercial building construction weights for the purpose of estimating national and state-by-state energy savings impacts of changes made to various commercial energy codes and standards. A similar activity was last completed by PNNL in 2020 using disaggregate construction volume data acquired from the Dodge Data & Analytics database (formerly McGraw Hill) for the years 2003-2018 (Lei et al, 2020). As time passes, changes in economic and social demand reshape construction volume trends. For the current update, PNNL reviewed the same data source with the latest construction data for the years 2008-2022. For commercial building analyses, PNNL typically uses a suite of 16 prototype buildings simulated in the 19 ASHRAE climate zones with 16 of them present in the United States. The 2008-2022 commercial building weighting factors were derived using the same approach employed to develop the 2003-2018 set (Lei et al, 2020). Applying the construction volume data from the database to the prototypes and climate zones resulted in the following new construction area-based weighting factors. Table ES.1 shows the weighting factors including all building categories found in the database, and Table ES.2 shows the weighting factors normalized to include only buildings represented by the 16 prototypes. Section 3.0 also includes national- and state-level weighting factors by area and building count.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Impact Analysis of Utility-Scale Energy Storage on the ERCOT Grid in Reducing Renewable Generation Curtailments and Emissions

This paper explores the solutions for minimizing renewable energy (RE) curtailment in the Texas Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid. By utilizing current and future planning data from ERCOT and the System Advisor Model from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, we examine how future renewable energy (RE) initiatives, combined with utility-scale energy storage, can reduce CO2 emissions while reshaping Texas’s energy mix. The study projects the energy landscape from 2023 to 2033, considering the planned phase-out of fossil fuel plants and the integration of new wind/solar projects. By comparing emissions under different load scenarios, with and without storage, we demonstrate storage’s role in optimizing RE utilization. The findings of this paper provide actionable guidance for energy stakeholders, underscoring the need to expand wind and solar projects with strategic storage solutions to maximize Texas's RE capacity and substantially reduce CO2 emissions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗