Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Uncertainties”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,459 records · Page 81
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1992

Radiation health for a Mars mission

Uncertainties in risk assessments for exposure of a Mars mission crew to space radiation place limitations on mission design and operation. Large shielding penalties are imposed in order to obtain acceptable safety margins. Galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are the major concern. A warning system and 'safe-haven' are needed to protect the crew from large SPE which produce lethal doses. A model developed at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) to describe solar modulation of GCR intensities reduces that uncertainty to less than 10 percent. Radiation transport models used to design spacecraft shielding have large uncertainties in nuclear fragmentation cross sections for GCR which interact with spacecraft materials. Planned space measurements of linear energy transfer (LET) spectra behind various shielding thicknesses will reduce uncertainties in dose-versus-shielding thickness relationships to 5-10 percent. The largest remaining uncertainty is in biological effects of space radiation. Data on effects of energetic ions in human are nonexistent. Experimental research on effects in animals and cell is needed to allow extrapolation to the risk of carcinogenesis in humans.

Robbins, Donald E.↗
NASA NTRS1998

A Study of Fixed-Order Mixed Norm Designs for a Benchmark Problem in Structural Control

This study investigates the use of H2, p-synthesis, and mixed H2/mu methods to construct full-order controllers and optimized controllers of fixed dimensions. The benchmark problem definition is first extended to include uncertainty within the controller bandwidth in the form of parametric uncertainty representative of uncertainty in the natural frequencies of the design model. The sensitivity of H2 design to unmodelled dynamics and parametric uncertainty is evaluated for a range of controller levels of authority. Next, mu-synthesis methods are applied to design full-order compensators that are robust to both unmodelled dynamics and to parametric uncertainty. Finally, a set of mixed H2/mu compensators are designed which are optimized for a fixed compensator dimension. These mixed norm designs recover the H, design performance levels while providing the same levels of robust stability as the u designs. It is shown that designing with the mixed norm approach permits higher levels of controller authority for which the H, designs are destabilizing. The benchmark problem is that of an active tendon system. The controller designs are all based on the use of acceleration feedback.

Whorton, Mark S.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Fixed-Order Mixed Norm Designs for Building Vibration Control

This study investigates the use of H2, mu-synthesis, and mixed H2/mu methods to construct full order controllers and optimized controllers of fixed dimensions. The benchmark problem definition is first extended to include uncertainty within the controller bandwidth in the form of parametric uncertainty representative of uncertainty in the natural frequencies of the design model. The sensitivity of H2 design to unmodeled dynamics and parametric uncertainty is evaluated for a range of controller levels of authority. Next, mu-synthesis methods are applied to design full order compensators that are robust to both unmodeled dynamics and to parametric uncertainty. Finally, a set of mixed H2/mu compensators are designed which are optimized for a fixed compensator dimension. These mixed norm designs recover the H2 design performance levels while providing the same levels of robust stability as the mu designs. It is shown that designing with the mixed norm approach permits higher levels of controller authority for which the H2 designs are destabilizing. The benchmark problem is that of an active tendon system. The controller designs are all based on the use of acceleration feedback.

Whorton, Mark S.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Deuterium Abundance Toward G191-B2B: Results from the Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE) Mission

High-resolution spectra of the hot white dwarf G191-B2B covering the wavelength region 905-1187A were obtained with the Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE). This data was used in conjunction with existing high-resolution Hubble Space Telescope STIS observations to evaluate the total H(sub I), D(sub I), O(sub I) and N(sub I) column densities along the line of sight. Previous determinations of N(D(sub I)) based upon GHRS (Goddard High Resolution Spectrograph) and STIS (Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph) observations were controversial due to the saturated strength of the D(sub I) Lyman alpha line. In the present analysis the column density of D(sub I) has been measured using only the unsaturated Lyman beta and Lyman gamma lines observed by FUSE. A careful inspection of possible systematic uncertainties tied to the modeling of the stellar continuum or to the uncertainties in the FUSE instrumental character series has been performed. The column densities derived are: log N(D(sub I)) = 13.40+/-0.07, log N(O(sub I)) = 14.86+/-0.07, and log N(N(sub I)) = 13.87+/-0.07 quoted with 2sigma, uncertainties. The measurement of the H(sub I) column density by profile fitting of the Lyman alpha line has been found to be unsecure. If additional weak hot interstellar components are added to the three detected clouds along the line of sight, the H(sub I)) column density can be reduced quite significantly, even though the signal-to-noise ratio and spectral resolution at Lyman alpha are excellent. The new estimate of N(H(sub I)) toward G191-B2B reads: logN(H (sub I)) = 18.18+/-0.18 (2sigma uncertainty), so that the average (D/H) ratio on the line of sight is: (D/H)= 1.66(+0.9/-0.6) x 10(exp -5) (2sigma uncertainty).

Lemoine, M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

NASA GEOS-3/TRMM Re-analysis: Capturing Observed Tropical Rainfall Variability in Global Analysis for Climate Research

Understanding climate variability over a wide range of space-time scales requires a comprehensive description of the earth system. Global analyses produced by a fixed assimilation system (i.e., re-analyses) - as their quality continues to improve - have the potential of providing a vital tool for meeting this challenge. But at the present time, the usefulness of re-analyses is limited by uncertainties in such basic fields as clouds, precipitation, and evaporation - especially in the tropics, where observations are relatively sparse. Analyses of the tropics have long been shown to be sensitive to. the treatment of cloud precipitation processes, which remains a major source of uncertainty in current models. Yet, for many climate studies it is crucial that analyses can accurately reproduce the observed rainfall intensity and variability since a small error of 1 mm/d in surface rain translates into an error of approx. 30 W/sq m in energy (latent heat) flux. Currently, discrepancies between the observed and analyzed monthly-mean rain rates averaged to 100 km x 100 km resolution can exceed 4 mm/d (or 120 W/sq m ), compared to uncertainties in surface radiative fluxes of approx. 10-20 W/sq m . Improving precipitation in analyses would reduce a major source of uncertainty in the global energy budget. Uncertainties in tropical precipitation have also been a major impediment in understanding how the tropics interact with other regions, including the remote response to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability on interannual time scales, the influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and monsoons on intraseasonal time scales. A global analysis that can replicate the observed precipitation variability together with physically consistent estimates of other atmospheric variables provides the key to breaking this roadblock. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of satellite-based microwave rainfall measurements in improving global analyses and has recently produced a multi-year, 1 x 1 TRMM re-analysis , which assimilates 6-hourly TMI and SSM/I surface rain rates over tropical oceans using a ID variational continuous assimilation (VCA) procedure in the GEOS-3 global data assimilation system. The analysis period extends from 1 November 1997 through 3 1 December 2002. The goal is to produce a multi-year global analysis that is dynamically consistent with available tropical precipitation observations for the community to assess its utility in climate applications and identify areas for further improvements. A distinct feature of the GEOS-3RRMh4 re-analysis is that its precipitation analysis is not derived from a short-term forecast (as done in most operational systems) but is given by a time- continuous model integration constrained by precipitation observations within a 6-h analysis window, while the wind, temperature, and pressure fields are allowed to directly respond to the improved precipitation and associated latent heating structures within the same analysis window. In this talk, I will assess the impact VCA precipitation assimilation on analyses of climate signals ranging from a few weeks to interannual time scales and compare results against other operational and reanalysis products.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Anchoring the Population II Distance Scale: Accurate Ages for Globular Clusters

The metal-poor stars in the halo of the Milky Way galaxy were among the first objects formed in our Galaxy. These Population II stars are the oldest objects in the universe whose ages can be accurately determined. Age determinations for these stars allow us to set a firm lower limit, to the age of the universe and to probe the early formation history of the Milky Way. The age of the universe determined from studies of Population II stars may be compared to the expansion age of the universe and used to constrain cosmological models. The largest uncertainty in estimates for the ages of stars in our halo is due to the uncertainty in the distance scale to Population II objects. We propose to obtain accurate parallaxes to a number of Population II objects (globular clusters and field stars in the halo) resulting in a significant improvement in the Population II distance scale and greatly reducing the uncertainty in the estimated ages of the oldest stars in our galaxy. At the present time, the oldest stars are estimated to be 12.8 Gyr old, with an uncertainty of approx. 15%. The SIM observations obtained by this key project, combined with the supporting theoretical research and ground based observations outlined in this proposal will reduce the estimated uncertainty in the age estimates to 5%).

Chaboyer, Brian C.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Hard and Soft Constraints in Reliability-Based Design Optimization

This paper proposes a framework for the analysis and design optimization of models subject to parametric uncertainty where design requirements in the form of inequality constraints are present. Emphasis is given to uncertainty models prescribed by norm bounded perturbations from a nominal parameter value and by sets of componentwise bounded uncertain variables. These models, which often arise in engineering problems, allow for a sharp mathematical manipulation. Constraints can be implemented in the hard sense, i.e., constraints must be satisfied for all parameter realizations in the uncertainty model, and in the soft sense, i.e., constraints can be violated by some realizations of the uncertain parameter. In regard to hard constraints, this methodology allows (i) to determine if a hard constraint can be satisfied for a given uncertainty model and constraint structure, (ii) to generate conclusive, formally verifiable reliability assessments that allow for unprejudiced comparisons of competing design alternatives and (iii) to identify the critical combination of uncertain parameters leading to constraint violations. In regard to soft constraints, the methodology allows the designer (i) to use probabilistic uncertainty models, (ii) to calculate upper bounds to the probability of constraint violation, and (iii) to efficiently estimate failure probabilities via a hybrid method. This method integrates the upper bounds, for which closed form expressions are derived, along with conditional sampling. In addition, an l(sub infinity) formulation for the efficient manipulation of hyper-rectangular sets is also proposed.

Crespo, L.uis G.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Evaluating Shielding Effectiveness for Reducing Space Radiation Cancer Risks

We discuss calculations of probability distribution functions (PDF) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). The PDF s are used in significance tests of the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments are considered in models of cancer risk PDF s. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are treated in the calculations. We show that the cancer risk uncertainty, defined as the ratio of the 95% confidence level (CL) to the point estimate is about 4-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missions (<180 d), SPE s present the most significant risk, however one that is mitigated effectively by shielding, especially for carbon composites structures with high hydrogen content. In contrast, for long duration lunar (>180 d) or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits, with 95% CL s exceeding 10% fatal risk for males and females on a Mars mission. For reducing GCR cancer risks, shielding materials are marginally effective because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativistic particles. At the present time, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding can not be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding based on a significance test that accounts for radiobiology uncertainties in GCR risk projection.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

The Precision and Accuracy of AIRS Level 1B Radiances for Climate Studies

We investigate uncertainties in the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiances based on in-flight and preflight calibration algorithms and observations. The global coverage and spectra1 resolution ((lamda)/(Delta)(lamda) ~ 1200) of AIRS enable it to produce a data set that can be used as a climate data record over the lifetime of the instrument. Therefore, we examine the effects of the uncertainties in the calibration and the detector stability on future climate studies. The uncertainties of the parameters that go into the AIRS radiometric calibration are propagated to estimate the accuracy of the radiances and any climate data record created from AIRS measurements. The calculated radiance uncertainties are consistent with observations. Algorithm enhancements may be able to reduce the radiance uncertainties by as much as 7%. We find that the orbital variation of the gain contributes a brightness temperature bias of < 0.01 K.

climate↗
NASA NTRS2007

Toward Scientific Numerical Modeling

Ultimately, scientific numerical models need quantified output uncertainties so that modeling can evolve to better match reality. Documenting model input uncertainties and verifying that numerical models are translated into code correctly, however, are necessary first steps toward that goal. Without known input parameter uncertainties, model sensitivities are all one can determine, and without code verification, output uncertainties are simply not reliable. To address these two shortcomings, two proposals are offered: (1) an unobtrusive mechanism to document input parameter uncertainties in situ and (2) an adaptation of the Scientific Method to numerical model development and deployment. Because these two steps require changes in the computational simulation community to bear fruit, they are presented in terms of the Beckhard-Harris-Gleicher change model.

Kleb, Bil↗
NASA NTRS2009

Monitoring Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Energy Imbalance for Climate Prediction

Large climate feedback uncertainties limit the prediction accuracy of the Earth s future climate with an increased CO2 atmosphere. One potential to reduce the feedback uncertainties using satellite observations of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative energy imbalance is explored. Instead of solving the initial condition problem in previous energy balance analysis, current study focuses on the boundary condition problem with further considerations on climate system memory and deep ocean heat transport, which is more applicable for the climate. Along with surface temperature measurements of the present climate, the climate feedbacks are obtained based on the constraints of the TOA radiation imbalance. Comparing to the feedback factor of 3.3 W/sq m/K of the neutral climate system, the estimated feedback factor for the current climate system ranges from -1.3 to -1.0 W/sq m/K with an uncertainty of +/-0.26 W/sq m/K. That is, a positive climate feedback is found because of the measured TOA net radiative heating (0.85 W/sq m) to the climate system. The uncertainty is caused by the uncertainties in the climate memory length. The estimated time constant of the climate is large (70 to approx. 120 years), implying that the climate is not in an equilibrium state under the increasing CO2 forcing in the last century.

Lin, Bing↗
NASA NTRS2010

Climate Benchmark Missions: CLARREO

CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory) is one of the four Tier 1 missions recommended by the recent NRC decadal survey report on Earth Science and Applications from Space (NRC, 2007). The CLARREO mission addresses the need to rigorously observe climate change on decade time scales and to use decadal change observations as the most critical method to determine the accuracy of climate change projections such as those used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). A rigorously known accuracy of both decadal change observations as well as climate projections is critical in order to enable sound policy decisions. The CLARREO mission accomplishes this critical objective through highly accurate and SI traceable decadal change observations sensitive to many of the key uncertainties in climate radiative forcings, responses, and feedbacks that in turn drive uncertainty in current climate model projections. The same uncertainties also lead to uncertainty in attribution of climate change to anthropogenic forcing. The CLARREO breakthrough in decadal climate change observations is to achieve the required levels of accuracy and traceability to SI standards for a set of observations sensitive to a wide range of key decadal change variables. These accuracy levels are determined both by the projected decadal changes as well as by the background natural variability that such signals must be detected against. The accuracy for decadal change traceability to SI standards includes uncertainties of calibration, sampling, and analysis methods. Unlike most other missions, all of the CLARREO requirements are judged not by instantaneous accuracy, but instead by accuracy in large time/space scale average decadal changes. Given the focus on decadal climate change, the NRC Decadal Survey concluded that the single most critical issue for decadal change observations was their lack of accuracy and low confidence in observing the small but critical climate change signals. CLARREO is the recommended attack on this challenge, and builds on the last decade of climate observation advances in the Earth Observing System as well as metrological advances at NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) and other standards laboratories.

Wielicki, Bruce A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

CLARREO Cornerstone of the Earth Observing System: Measuring Decadal Change Through Accurate Emitted Infrared and Reflected Solar Spectra and Radio Occultation

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) is one of four Tier 1 missions recommended by the recent NRC Decadal Survey report on Earth Science and Applications from Space (NRC, 2007). The CLARREO mission addresses the need to provide accurate, broadly acknowledged climate records that are used to enable validated long-term climate projections that become the foundation for informed decisions on mitigation and adaptation policies that address the effects of climate change on society. The CLARREO mission accomplishes this critical objective through rigorous SI traceable decadal change observations that are sensitive to many of the key uncertainties in climate radiative forcings, responses, and feedbacks that in turn drive uncertainty in current climate model projections. These same uncertainties also lead to uncertainty in attribution of climate change to anthropogenic forcing. For the first time CLARREO will make highly accurate, global, SI-traceable decadal change observations sensitive to the most critical, but least understood, climate forcings, responses, and feedbacks. The CLARREO breakthrough is to achieve the required levels of accuracy and traceability to SI standards for a set of observations sensitive to a wide range of key decadal change variables. The required accuracy levels are determined so that climate trend signals can be detected against a background of naturally occurring variability. Climate system natural variability therefore determines what level of accuracy is overkill, and what level is critical to obtain. In this sense, the CLARREO mission requirements are considered optimal from a science value perspective. The accuracy for decadal change traceability to SI standards includes uncertainties associated with instrument calibration, satellite orbit sampling, and analysis methods. Unlike most space missions, the CLARREO requirements are driven not by the instantaneous accuracy of the measurements, but by accuracy in the large time/space scale averages that are key to understanding decadal changes.

Sandford, Stephen P.↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Novel Non-Intrusive Method to Resolve the Thermal-Dome-Effect of Pyranometers: Radiometric Calibration and Implications

Traditionally the calibration equation for pyranometers assumes that the measured solar irradiance is solely proportional to the thermopile's output voltage; therefore only a single calibration factor is derived. This causes additional measurement uncertainties because it does not capture sufficient information to correctly account for a pyranometer's thermal effect. In our updated calibration equation, temperatures from the pyranometer's dome and case are incorporated to describe the instrument's thermal behavior, and a new set of calibration constants are determined, thereby reducing measurement uncertainties. In this paper, we demonstrate why a pyranometer's uncertainty using the traditional calibration equation is always larger than a-few-percent, but with the new approach can become much less than 1% after the thermal issue is resolved. The highlighted calibration results are based on NIST-traceable light sources under controlled laboratory conditions. The significance of the new approach lends itself to not only avoiding the uncertainty caused by a pyranometer's thermal effect but also the opportunity to better isolate and characterize other instrumental artifacts, such as angular response and non-linearity of the thermopile, to further reduce additional uncertainties. We also discuss some of the implications, including an example of how the thermal issue can potentially impact climate studies by evaluating aerosol's direct-radiative effect using field measurements with and without considering the pyranometer's thermal effect. The results of radiative transfer model simulation show that a pyranometer's thermal effect on solar irradiance measurements at the surface can be translated into a significant alteration of the calculated distribution of solar energy inside the column atmosphere.

Ji, Qiang↗
NASA NTRS2012

Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation

At the request of NASA, the National Research Council's (NRC's) Committee for Evaluation of Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model1 reviewed a number of changes that NASA proposes to make to its model for estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer in astronauts. The NASA model in current use was last updated in 2005, and the proposed model would incorporate recent research directed at improving the quantification and understanding of the health risks posed by the space radiation environment. NASA's proposed model is defined by the 2011 NASA report Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties--2010 . The committee's evaluation is based primarily on this source, which is referred to hereafter as the 2011 NASA report, with mention of specific sections or tables. The overall process for estimating cancer risks due to low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation exposure has been fully described in reports by a number of organizations. The approaches described in the reports from all of these expert groups are quite similar. NASA's proposed space radiation cancer risk assessment model calculates, as its main output, age- and gender-specific risk of exposure-induced death (REID) for use in the estimation of mission and astronaut-specific cancer risk. The model also calculates the associated uncertainties in REID. The general approach for estimating risk and uncertainty in the proposed model is broadly similar to that used for the current (2005) NASA model and is based on recommendations by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements. However, NASA's proposed model has significant changes with respect to the following: the integration of new findings and methods into its components by taking into account newer epidemiological data and analyses, new radiobiological data indicating that quality factors differ for leukemia and solid cancers, an improved method for specifying quality factors in terms of radiation track structure concepts as opposed to the previous approach based on linear energy transfer, the development of a new solar particle event (SPE) model, and the updates to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) and shielding transport models. The newer epidemiological information includes updates to the cancer incidence rates from the life span study (LSS) of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors, transferred to the U.S. population and converted to cancer mortality rates from U.S. population statistics. In addition, the proposed model provides an alternative analysis applicable to lifetime never-smokers (NSs). Details of the uncertainty analysis in the model have also been updated and revised. NASA's proposed model and associated uncertainties are complex in their formulation and as such require a very clear and precise set of descriptions. The committee found the 2011 NASA report challenging to review largely because of the lack of clarity in the model descriptions and derivation of the various parameters used. The committee requested some clarifications from NASA throughout its review and was able to resolve many, but not all, of the ambiguities in the written description.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2012

Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation

At the request of NASA, the National Research Council's (NRC's) Committee for Evaluation of Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model reviewed a number of changes that NASA proposes to make to its model for estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer in astronauts. The NASA model in current use was last updated in 2005, and the proposed model would incorporate recent research directed at improving the quantification and understanding of the health risks posed by the space radiation environment. NASA's proposed model is defined by the 2011 NASA report Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties 2010 (Cucinotta et al., 2011). The committee's evaluation is based primarily on this source, which is referred to hereafter as the 2011 NASA report, with mention of specific sections or tables cited more formally as Cucinotta et al. (2011). The overall process for estimating cancer risks due to low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation exposure has been fully described in reports by a number of organizations. They include, more recently: (1) The "BEIR VII Phase 2" report from the NRC's Committee on Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) (NRC, 2006); (2) Studies of Radiation and Cancer from the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR, 2006), (3) The 2007 Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), ICRP Publication 103 (ICRP, 2007); and (4) The Environmental Protection Agency s (EPA s) report EPA Radiogenic Cancer Risk Models and Projections for the U.S. Population (EPA, 2011). The approaches described in the reports from all of these expert groups are quite similar. NASA's proposed space radiation cancer risk assessment model calculates, as its main output, age- and gender-specific risk of exposure-induced death (REID) for use in the estimation of mission and astronaut-specific cancer risk. The model also calculates the associated uncertainties in REID. The general approach for estimating risk and uncertainty in the proposed model is broadly similar to that used for the current (2005) NASA model and is based on recommendations by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP, 2000, 2006). However, NASA's proposed model has significant changes with respect to the following: the integration of new findings and methods into its components by taking into account newer epidemiological data and analyses, new radiobiological data indicating that quality factors differ for leukemia and solid cancers, an improved method for specifying quality factors in terms of radiation track structure concepts as opposed to the previous approach based on linear energy transfer, the development of a new solar particle event (SPE) model, and the updates to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) and shielding transport models. The newer epidemiological information includes updates to the cancer incidence rates from the life span study (LSS) of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors (Preston et al., 2007), transferred to the U.S. population and converted to cancer mortality rates from U.S. population statistics. In addition, the proposed model provides an alternative analysis applicable to lifetime never-smokers (NSs). Details of the uncertainty analysis in the model have also been updated and revised. NASA's proposed model and associated uncertainties are complex in their formulation and as such require a very clear and precise set of descriptions. The committee found the 2011 NASA report challenging to review largely because of the lack of clarity in the model descriptions and derivation of the various parameters used. The committee requested some clarifications from NASA throughout its review and was able to resolve many, but not all, of the ambiguities in the written description.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Novel Nonintrusive Method to Resolve the Thermal Dome Effect of Pyranometers: Radiometric Calibration and Implications

Traditionally the calibration equation for pyranometers assumes that the measured solar irradiance is solely proportional to the thermopile s output voltage; therefore, only a single calibration factor is derived. This causes additional measurement uncertainties because it does not capture sufficient information to correctly account for a pyranometer s thermal effect. In our updated calibration equation, temperatures from the pyranometer's dome and case are incorporated to describe the instrument's thermal behavior, and a new set of calibration constants are determined, thereby reducing measurement uncertainties. In this paper, we demonstrate why a pyranometer's uncertainty using the traditional calibration equation is always larger than a few percent, but with the new approach can become much less than 1% after the thermal issue is resolved. The highlighted calibration results are based on NIST traceable light sources under controlled laboratory conditions. The significance of the new approach lends itself to not only avoiding the uncertainty caused by a pyranometer's thermal effect but also the opportunity to better isolate and characterize other instrumental artifacts, such as angular response and nonlinearity of the thermopile, to further reduce additional uncertainties. We also discuss some of the implications, including an example of how the thermal issue can potentially impact climate studies by evaluating aerosol s direct radiative effect using field measurements with and without considering the pyranometer s thermal effect. The results of radiative transfer model simulation show that a pyranometer s thermal effect on solar irradiance measurements at the surface can be translated into a significant alteration of the calculated distribution of solar energy inside the column atmosphere.

Ji. Q.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Global Air Quality and Climate

Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH4), ozone precursors (O3), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O3 precursor CH4 would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH4 and tropospheric O3. Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, which increase tropospheric O3 (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH4 (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH4 volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O3 and CH4. Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O3 and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios assume uniformly an aggressive reduction, of air pollutant emissions. New estimates from the current generation of chemistry-climate models with RCP emissions thus project improved air quality over the next century relative to those using the IPCC SRES scenarios. These two sets of projections likely bracket possible futures. We find that uncertainty in emission-driven changes in air quality is generally greater than uncertainty in climate-driven changes. Confidence in air quality projections is limited by the reliability of anthropogenic emission trajectories and the uncertainties in regional climate responses, feedbacks with the terrestrial biosphere, and oxidation pathways affecting O3 and SOA.

ozone↗