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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Appearance versus disappearance of broad absorption line troughs in quasars

ABSTRACT We present a new set of 84 broad absorption line (BAL) quasars (1.7 < zem < 4.4) exhibiting an appearance of C iv BAL troughs over 0.3–4.8 rest-frame years by comparing the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release (SDSSDR)-7, SDSSDR-12, and SDSSDR-14 quasar catalogues. We contrast the nature of BAL variability in this appearing BAL quasar sample with a disappearing BAL quasar sample studied in the literature by comparing the quasar’s intrinsic, BAL trough, and continuum parameters between the two samples. We find that appearing BAL quasars have relatively higher redshift and smaller probed time-scales as compared to the disappearing BAL quasars. To mitigate the effect of any redshift bias, we created control samples of appearing and disappearing BAL quasars that have similar redshift distribution. We find that the appearing BAL quasars are relatively brighter and have shallower and wider BAL troughs compared to the disappearing BAL sample. The distribution of quasar continuum variability parameters between the two samples is clearly separated, with the appearance of the BAL troughs being accompanied by the dimming of the continuum and vice versa. Spectral index variations in the two samples also point to the anticorrelation between the BAL trough and continuum variations consistent with the ‘bluer when brighter’ trend in quasars. We show that the intrinsic dust model is less likely to be a favourable scenario in explaining BAL appearance/disappearance. Our analysis suggests that the extreme variations of BAL troughs like BAL appearance/disappearance are mainly driven by changes in the ionization conditions of the absorbing gas.

Mishra, Sapna↗
DOE OSTI2020

Socioeconomic Effects of Pension Spending: Evidence from Spain

The purpose of this study is to provide broader understanding of the significant role that the pension system has in the Spanish economy by estimating the sectoral production, employment and income sustained by pensioners' consumption. Based on input-output tables by the World Input-Output Database and consumption data from the Household Budget Survey by the Spanish Statistical Office, a demoeconomic model is applied to quantify the direct impacts, indirect impacts from interindustry links and induced impacts from income-consumption connections over a nine-year period (2006–2014). Then, the factors driving the evolution of total output, employment and value added during such period have been examined by using structural decomposition analysis. The growing participation of consumption by pensioner households in final demand had proven crucial during the 2008 crisis to alleviate the negative trend in production and employment derived from the collapse in consumption suffered by the rest of households. Determining the underlying factors driving changes in both employment and income during the 2008 crisis can be of interest in political decision-making on the sustainability of the Spanish pension system. The results of estimating both the employment and income supported by pensioners' consumption reveal the significant stabilizing effect of the public spending on pensions, particularly during the 2008 crisis. The current Spanish approach of attaining the pension system sustainability by merely reducing social protection costs ignores the adverse consequences of a lower pensioners' demand. This paper addresses an alternative view in which pension spending is not considered a burden on economic growth but rather a means of improving the level of production and employment.

employment↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wildfire‐induced increases in photosynthesis in boreal forest ecosystems of North America

Abstract Observations of the annual cycle of atmospheric CO 2 in high northern latitudes provide evidence for an increase in terrestrial metabolism in Arctic tundra and boreal forest ecosystems. However, the mechanisms driving these changes are not yet fully understood. One proposed hypothesis is that ecological change from disturbance, such as wildfire, could increase the magnitude and change the phase of net ecosystem exchange through shifts in plant community composition. Yet, little quantitative work has evaluated this potential mechanism at a regional scale. Here we investigate how fire disturbance influences landscape‐level patterns of photosynthesis across western boreal North America. We use Alaska and Canadian large fire databases to identify the perimeters of wildfires, a Landsat‐derived land cover time series to characterize plant functional types (PFTs), and solar‐induced fluorescence (SIF) from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory‐2 (OCO‐2) as a proxy for photosynthesis. We analyze these datasets to characterize post‐fire changes in plant succession and photosynthetic activity using a space‐for‐time approach. We find that increases in herbaceous and sparse vegetation, shrub, and deciduous broadleaf forest PFTs during mid‐succession yield enhancements in SIF by 8–40% during June and July for 2‐ to 59‐year stands relative to pre‐fire controls. From the analysis of post‐fire land cover changes within individual ecoregions and modeling, we identify two mechanisms by which fires contribute to long‐term trends in SIF. First, increases in annual burning are shifting the stand age distribution, leading to increases in the abundance of shrubs and deciduous broadleaf forests that have considerably higher SIF during early‐ and mid‐summer. Second, fire appears to facilitate a long‐term shift from evergreen conifer to broadleaf deciduous forest in the Boreal Plain ecoregion. These findings suggest that increasing fire can contribute substantially to positive trends in seasonal CO 2 exchange without a close coupling to long‐term increases in carbon storage.

Biodiversity & Conservation↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bridging Equipment Reliability Data and Robust Decisions in a Plant Operation Context

In order to reduce operation and maintenance (O&M) costs, nuclear power plants (NPPs) are moving from corrective and periodic maintenance to predictive maintenance strategies. Such transition requires changes on the data that needs to be retrieved and on the type of decision processes to be employed. Advanced monitoring and data analysis technologies are essential to support predictive strategies. They can in fact provide precise information about health of a component, track its degradation trends, and provide information of its expected failure time. With such information, maintenance operations for a component can be performed right before its expected failure time. This dynamic context of O&M operations requires new methods to analyze data, propagate component health information from the component to the system level, and optimize plant resources. In this respect, the risk informed asset management (RIAM) project has been tasked to develop and test this new class of methods into a risk analytics toolset. This toolset consists of data analytics tools coupled with reliability methods designed to manage plant assets and performances in a predictive maintenance context. This report shows the latest improvements on such development and the initial testing of our methods on the three main research areas that the RIAM project is focusing on. These areas are the following: equipment reliability data analytics, system reliability modeling, and plant resources optimization methods. We show how the methods developed in these areas can support predictive maintenance strategies by: 1) analyzing equipment reliability data (either in numeric and textual form), 2) assessing component and system health through an innovative margin-based reliability approach, and 3) identifying the most critical components and set optimal maintenance schedule based on plant economic and operational constraints.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Milky Way Revealed by Variable Stars. I. Sample Selection of RR Lyrae Stars and Evidence for Merger History

In order to study the Milky Way, RR Lyrae (RRL) variable stars identified by Gaia, ASAS-SN, and ZTF sky survey projects have been analyzed as tracers in this work. Photometric and spectroscopic information of 3417 RRLs including proper motions, radial velocity, and metallcity are obtained from observational data of Gaia, LAMOST, GALAH, APOGEE, and RAVE. Precise distances of RRLs with typical uncertainties less than 3% are derived by using a recent comprehensive period–luminosity–metallicity relation. Our results from kinematical and chemical analysis provide important clues for the assembly history of the Milky Way, especially for the Gaia–Sausage ancient merger. The kinematical and chemical trends found in this work are consistent with those of recent simulations that indicated that the Gaia–Sausage merger had a dual origin in the Galactic thick disk and halo. As recent similar works have found, the halo RRL sample in this work contains a subset of radially biased orbits besides a more isotropic component. This higher orbital anisotropy component amounts to β ≃ 0.8, and it contributes between 42% and 83% of the halo RRLs at 4 < R( kpc) < 20.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Implications of AI and Data Center Service Demand on Energy, Water, and Economic Systems

This talk focuses on the challenges posed by the rapid growth of data centers (DCs), which rely heavily on electricity, water, land, and mineral resources, and have significant interactions with economic growth. The U.S. leads in DC deployment, but understanding how resource demands and constraints impact DC expansion requires strategic multisector analysis. To address this, the talk introduces a new conceptual framework and modeling capability within GCAM-USA, allowing integrated analysis of DC service demand, electricity, and direct and indirect water needs under varied scenarios. Insights include state-level water and electricity trends for DCs, uncertainty bounds, and the broader implications for resources and economics.

Data Centers↗
NASA NTRS1974

A Monte Carlo investigation of experimental data requirements for fitting polynomial functions

This report examines the extent to which sample size affects the accuracy of a low order polynomial approximation of an experimentally observed quantity and establishes a trend toward improvement in the accuracy of the approximation as a function of sample size. The task is made possible through a simulated analysis carried out by the Monte Carlo method, in which data are generated by using several transcendental or algebraic functions as models. Contaminated data of varying amounts are fitted to linear quadratic or cubic polynomials, and the behavior of the mean-squared error of the residual variance is determined as a function of sample size. Results indicate that the effect of the size of the sample is significant only for relatively small sample sizes and diminishes drastically for moderate and large amounts of experimental data.

Canavos, G. C.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Pilot workload and fatigue: A critical survey of concepts and assessment techniques

The principal unresolved issues in conceptualizing and measuring pilot workload and fatigue are discussed. These issues are seen as limiting the development of more useful working concepts and techniques and their application to systems engineering and management activities. A conceptual analysis of pilot workload and fatigue, an overview and critique of approaches to the assessment of these phenomena, and a discussion of current trends in the management of unwanted workload and fatigue effects are presented. Refinements and innovations in assessment methods are recommended for enhancing the practical significance of workload and fatigue studies.

Gartner, W. B.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Energy environment study

The international demand for and supply of oil between the years 1980 and 2000 is assessed and future world oil prices and their implications for the price of jet fuel are estimated. Three critical questions are investigated: (1) how long will the world supply of oil continue to keep pace with its demand under likely trends in its use and discovery; (2) at what price will demand and supply clear the world oil market; (3) what does the analysis imply about the price of jet fuel. Projection of oil price is based upon supply and demand, which is consistent with microeconomic analysis.

Strangways, R.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Computational Fluid Dynamics In Rotary-Wing Aerodynamics

Emerging techniques appear vital to progress in rotary-wing-airplane industry. Report reviews current trends in field of helicopter-rotor aerodynamics. Selected test cases used to demonstrate current research in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) vital to analysis and design of advanced rotor-craft.

Davis, Sanford S.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Volatiles in interplanetary dust particles

Interplanetary dust particles (IDP's) collected by specially equipped aircraft flying in the stratosphere have generated a lot of interest during the last decade. These particles, consisting of primitive materials originating in small solar system bodies such as comets and asteroids, are complex heterogeneous species with a variety of components. In order to understand the past histories of IDP's, it is particularly important to know the nature of the volatiles present. Volatiles released from a number of IDP's have been studied; however, a large number of particles must be studied in order to establish trends, to classify types of IDP's, and to have comparison data for determining the origins of IDP's. This study involves the analysis of six IDP's using laser microprobe mass spectrometry.

Bustin, Roberta↗
NASA NTRS1998

Asymptotic Spreading Rate of Initially Compressible Jets: Experiment and Analysis

Experimental results for the spreading and centerline velocity decay rates for round, compressible jets, from a convergent and a convergent-divergent nozzle, are presented. The spreading rate is determined from the variation of streamwise mass flux obtained from Pitot probe surveys. Results for the far asymptotic region show that both spreading and centerline velocity decay rates, when nondimensionalized by parameters at the nozzle exit, decrease with increasing "jet Mach number" M(sub J). Dimensional analysis with the assumption of momentum conservation, together with compressible flow calculations for the conditions at the nozzle exit, predict this Mach number dependence well. The analysis also demonstrates that an increase in the "potential core length" of the jet occurring with increasing M(sub J), a commonly observed trend, is largely accounted for simply by the variations in the density and static pressure at the nozzle exit. The effect of decreasing mixing efficiency with increasing compressibility is inferred to contribute only partially to the latter trend.

Zaman, K. B. M. Q.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Asymptotic Spreading Rate of Initially Compressible Jets-Experiment and Analysis

Experimental results for the spreading and centerline velocity decay rates for round, compressible jets, from a convergent and a convergent-divergent nozzle, are presented. The spreading rate is determined from the variation of streamwise mass flux obtained from Pitot probe surveys. Results for the far asymptotic region show that both spreading and centerline velocity decay rates, when nondimensionalized by parameters at the nozzle exit, decrease with increasing "jet Mach number" M(sub j). Dimensional analysis with the assumption of momentum conservation, together with compressible flow calculations for the conditions at the nozzle exit, predict this Mach number dependence well. The analysis also demonstrates that an increase in the "potential core length" of the jet occurring with increasing M(sub j), a commonly observed trend, is largely accounted for simply by the variations in the density and static pressure at the nozzle exit. The effect of decreasing mixing efficiency with increasing compressibility is inferred to contribute only partially to the latter trend.

Zaman, K. B. M. Q.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Characterization of Asymptotic Entrainment Rate for Compressible Jets

Experimental results for the spreading and centerline velocity decay rates are presented for round, compressible, submerged jets, with total temperature same as ambient temperature, covering a 'jet Mach number' (M(sub J)) range of 0.3 - 2.0. Data from a convergent and a convergent-divergent nozzle are considered. The spreading rate is determined from the total longitudinal mass fluxes measured by Pilot probe survey. Results for the far asymptotic regions show that both spreading and centerline velocity decay rates, when normalized by conditions at the nozzle exit, decrease with increasing M(sub J). Dimensional analysis and isentropic calculations predict this Mach number dependence well. The analysis also demonstrates that an increase in the 'potential core length' of the jet occurring with increasing M(sub J), a commonly observed trend, is largely accounted for simply by the variations in the density and static pressure at the nozzle exit. The effect of decreasing mixing efficiency with increasing compressibility is inferred to contribute only partially to the latter trend.

Zaman, K. B. M. Q.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Global Warming Estimation from MSU: Correction for Drift and Calibration Errors

Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer observations in Ch 2 (53.74 GHz), made in the nadir direction from sequential, sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting NOAA morning satellites (NOAA 6, 10 and 12 that have approximately 7am/7pm orbital geometry) and. afternoon satellites (NOAA 7, 9, 11 and 14 that have approximately 2am/2pm orbital geometry) are analyzed in this study to derive global temperature trend from 1980 to 1998. In order to remove the discontinuities between the data of the successive satellites and to get a continuous time series, first we have used shortest possible time record of each satellite. In this way we get a preliminary estimate of the global temperature trend of 0.21 K/decade. However, this estimate is affected by systematic time-dependent errors. One such error is the instrument calibration error eo. This error can be inferred whenever there are overlapping measurements made by two satellites over an extended period of time. From the available successive satellite data we have taken the longest possible time record of each satellite to form the time series during the period 1980 to 1998 to this error eo. We find eo can decrease the global temperature trend by approximately 0.07 K/decade. In addition there are systematic time dependent errors ed and ec present in the data that are introduced by the drift in the satellite orbital geometry. ed arises from the diurnal cycle in temperature and ec is the drift related change in the calibration of the MSU. In order to analyze the nature of these drift related errors the multi-satellite Ch 2 data set is partitioned into am and pm subsets to create two independent time series. The error ed can be assessed in the am and pm data of Ch 2 on land and can be eliminated. Observation made in the MSU Ch 1 (50.3 GHz) support this approach. The error ec is obvious only in the difference between the pm and am observations of Ch 2 over the ocean. We have followed two different paths to assess the impact of the error ec on the global temperature trend. In one path the entire error ec is placed in the am data while in the other it is placed in the pm data. Global temperature trend is increased or decreased by approximately 0.03 K/decade depending upon this placement. Taking into account all random errors and systematic errors our analysis of MSU observations leads us to conclude that a conservative estimate of the global warming is 0. 11 (+/-) 0.04 K/decade during 1980 to 1998.

Prabhakara, C.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Global Warming Estimation from MSU: Correction for Drift and Calibration Errors

Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer observations in Ch 2 (53.74 GHz), made in the nadir direction from sequential, sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting NOAA morning satellites (NOAA 6, 10 and 12 that have about 7am/7pm orbital geometry) and afternoon satellites (NOAA 7, 9, 11 and 14 that have about 2am/2pm orbital geometry) are analyzed in this study to derive global temperature trend from 1980 to 1998. In order to remove the discontinuities between the data of the successive satellites and to get a continuous time series, first we have used shortest possible time record of each satellite. In this way we get a preliminary estimate of the global temperature trend of 0.21 K/decade. However, this estimate is affected by systematic time-dependent errors. One such error is the instrument calibration error. This error can be inferred whenever there are overlapping measurements made by two satellites over an extended period of time. From the available successive satellite data we have taken the longest possible time record of each satellite to form the time series during the period 1980 to 1998 to this error. We find we can decrease the global temperature trend by about 0.07 K/decade. In addition there are systematic time dependent errors present in the data that are introduced by the drift in the satellite orbital geometry arises from the diurnal cycle in temperature which is the drift related change in the calibration of the MSU. In order to analyze the nature of these drift related errors the multi-satellite Ch 2 data set is partitioned into am and pm subsets to create two independent time series. The error can be assessed in the am and pm data of Ch 2 on land and can be eliminated. Observations made in the MSU Ch 1 (50.3 GHz) support this approach. The error is obvious only in the difference between the pm and am observations of Ch 2 over the ocean. We have followed two different paths to assess the impact of the errors on the global temperature trend. In one path the entire error is placed in the am data while in the other it is placed in the pm data. Global temperature trend is increased or decreased by about 0.03 K/decade depending upon this placement. Taking into account all random errors and systematic errors our analysis of MSU observations leads us to conclude that a conservative estimate of the global warming is 0. 11 (+-) 0.04 K/decade during 1980 to 1998.

Prabhakara, C.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Comparisons Between Ground Measurements of Broadband UV Irradiance (300-380 nm) and TOMS UV Estimates at Moscow for 1979-2000

We show the comparisons between ground-based measurements of spectrally integrated (300 nm to 380 nm) ultraviolet (UV) irradiance with satellite estimates from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) total ozone and reflectivity data for the whole period of TOMS measurements (1979-2000) over the Meteorological Observatory of Moscow State University (MO MSU), Moscow, Russia. Several aspects of the comparisons are analyzed, including effects of cloudiness, aerosol, and snow cover. Special emphasis is given to the effect of different spatial and temporal averaging of ground-based data when comparing with low-resolution satellite measurements (TOMS footprint area 50-200 sq km). The comparisons in cloudless scenes with different aerosol loading have revealed TOMS irradiance overestimates from +5% to +20%. A-posteriori correction of the TOMS data accounting for boundary layer aerosol absorption (single scattering albedo of 0.92) eliminates the bias for cloud-free conditions. The single scattering albedo was independently verified using CIMEL sun and sky-radiance measurements at MO MSU in September 2001. The mean relative difference between TOMS UV estimates and ground UV measurements mainly lies within 1 10% for both snow-free and snow period with a tendency to TOMS overestimation in snow-free period especially at overcast conditions when the positive bias reaches 15-17%. The analysis of interannual UV variations shows quite similar behavior for both TOMS and ground measurements (correlation coefficient r=0.8). No long-term trend in the annual mean bias was found for both clear-sky and all-sky conditions with snow and without snow. Both TOMS and ground data show positive trend in UV irradiance between 1979 and 2000. The UV trend is attributed to decreases in both cloudiness and aerosol optical thickness during the late 1990's over Moscow region. However, if the analyzed period is extended to include pre-TOMS era (1968-2000 period), no trend in ground UV irradiance is detected.

Yurova, Alla Y.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Ground Processing Affordability for Space Vehicles

Launch vehicles and most of their payloads spend the majority of their time on the ground. The cost of ground operations is very high. So, why so often is so little attention given to ground processing during development? The current global space industry and economic environment are driving more need for efficiencies to save time and money. Affordability and sustainability are more important now than ever. We can not continue to treat space vehicles as mere science projects. More RLV's (Reusable Launch Vehicles) are being developed for the gains of reusability which are not available for ELV's (Expendable Launch Vehicles). More human-rated vehicles are being developed, with the retirement of the Space Shuttles, and for a new global space race, yet these cost more than the many unmanned vehicles of today. We can learn many lessons on affordability from RLV's. DFO (Design for Operations) considers ground operations during design, development, and manufacturing-before the first flight. This is often minimized for space vehicles, but is very important. Vehicles are designed for launch and mission operations. You will not be able to do it again if it is too slow or costly to get there. Many times, technology changes faster than space products such that what is launched includes outdated features, thus reducing competitiveness. Ground operations must be considered for the full product Lifecycle, from concept to retirement. Once manufactured, launch vehicles along with their payloads and launch systems require a long path of processing before launch. Initial assembly and testing always discover problems to address. A solid integration program is essential to minimize these impacts, as was seen in the Constellation Ares I-X test rocket. For RLV's, landing/recovery and post-flight turnaround activities are performed. Multi-use vehicles require reconfiguration. MRO (Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul) must be well-planned--- even for the unplanned problems. Defect limits and standard repairs need to be in-place as well as easily added. Many routine inspections and maintenance can be like an aircraft overhaul. Modifications and technology upgrades should be expected. Another factor affecting ground operations efficiency is trending. It is essential for RLV's, and also useful for ELV's which fly the same or similar models again. Good data analysis of technical and processing performance will determine fixes and improvements needed for safety, design, and future processing. Collecting such data on new or low-frequency vehicles is a challenge. Lessons can be learned from the Space Shuttle, or even the Concorde aircraft. For all of the above topics, efficient business systems must be established for comprehensive program management and good throughput. Drawings, specifications, and manuals for an entire launch vehicle are often in different formats from multiple vendors, plus they have proprietary constraints. Nonetheless, the integration team must ensure that all data needed is compatible and visible to each appropriate team member. Ground processing systems for scheduling, tracking, problem resolution, etc. must be well laid-out. The balance between COTS (commercial off the shelf) and custom software is difficult. Multiple customers, vendors, launch sites, and landing sites add to the complexity of efficient IT (Information Technology) tools.

Ingalls, John↗