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NASA NTRS2004

An X-Band Radar Terrain Feature Detection Method for Low-Altitude SVS Operations and Calibration Using LiDAR

To enable safe use of Synthetic Vision Systems at low altitudes, real-time range-to-terrain measurements may be required to ensure the integrity of terrain models stored in the system. This paper reviews and extends previous work describing the application of x-band radar to terrain model integrity monitoring. A method of terrain feature extraction and a transformation of the features to a common reference domain are proposed. Expected error distributions for the extracted features are required to establish appropriate thresholds whereby a consistency-checking function can trigger an alert. A calibration-based approach is presented that can be used to obtain these distributions. To verify the approach, NASA's DC-8 airborne science platform was used to collect data from two mapping sensors. An Airborne Laser Terrain Mapping (ALTM) sensor was installed in the cargo bay of the DC-8. After processing, the ALTM produced a reference terrain model with a vertical accuracy of less than one meter. Also installed was a commercial-off-the-shelf x-band radar in the nose radome of the DC-8. Although primarily designed to measure precipitation, the radar also provides estimates of terrain reflectivity at low altitudes. Using the ALTM data as the reference, errors in features extracted from the radar are estimated. A method to estimate errors in features extracted from the terrain model is also presented.

Young, Steve↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Application of Agile for Systems Engineering, Project Management and Modeling and Lessons Learned

The Systems Engineering team within the Human Research Program (HRP) Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element has been transforming its development processes to be more efficient, robust,and responsive to change and to its stakeholders. To these ends, the Systems Engineering team trialed the integration of agile development techniques into existing and new processes. Agile development methods are well understood within the software development community. Outside ofsoftware development, however, how non-software project management (PM) and systems engineering (SE) teams implement agile development techniques is less well understood. In its transformation efforts, the ExMC SE team focused on three main areas: Improving the project communications among subsystem teams and stakeholders by adopting a scrum-like process, Changing the status and reporting mechanisms to improve schedule coordination between the subsystem team, SE leadership, and ExMC Element leadership, and Unifying the model-based SE workflow to improve understanding of Concepts of Operations across projects.This presentation highlights several of these transformations and what the SE team learned while undergoing the transformation.

S Lumpkins↗

DOE OSTI2022

Direct measurement of storage and loss behavior in AFM force–distance experiments using the modified Fourier transformation

Force–distance curve experiments are commonly performed in atomic force microscopy (AFM) to obtain the viscoelastic characteristics of materials, such as the storage and loss moduli or compliances. The classic methods used to obtain these characteristics consist of fitting a viscoelastic material model to the experimentally obtained AFM data. Here, we demonstrate a new method that utilizes the modified discrete Fourier transform to approximate the storage and loss behavior of a material directly from the data, without the need for a fit. Additionally, one may still fit a model to the resulting storage and loss behavior if a parameterized description of the material is desired. In contrast to fitting the data to a model chosen a priori, departing from a model-free description of the material's frequency behavior guides the selection of the model, such that the user may choose the one that is most appropriate for the particular material under study. To this end, we also include modified Fourier domain descriptions of commonly used viscoelastic models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multiscale Modeling and Experimental Insights into High-Temperature Soil Biodegradation Dynamics of Semi-Crystalline Poly(Lactic Acid) Nonwoven Fabrics

This study investigates the biodegradation of semi-crystalline poly(lactic acid) (PLA) nonwovens (NWs) in soil at 58 °C using both experimental and mathematical modeling approaches. The model utilizes a system of parabolic diffusion-reaction partial differential equations (PDEs) to elucidate chemical transformations over time and in space. It accounts for phenomena such as the diffusion of water and lactic acid monomers through the polymer matrix and into the surrounding soil, along with their microbial breakdown. It also accounts for the initial PLA crystallinity and predicts its evolution in time. The model is solved numerically for a single filament, and the results were used to shed light on PLA NW transformations observed in soil over a 180-day incubation period. Various characterization techniques, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), and Raman spectroscopy, were employed to assess morphological changes, crystallinity, and molecular changes in the NWs throughout the experiment. By comparing the experimental data with the model predictions, the hydrolysis rate coefficient was found to be 3.37 × 10 -7 s -1 , while the rate of microbial degradation of lactic acid monomers was faster, of the order of 9.63 × 10 -7 s -1 . The findings highlight the significant role of crystallinity in the biodegradation process. The PLA degradation ceases when no amorphous material remains, and the crystallinity reaches 0.8, as observed in the experiments by day 120. Furthermore, this research contributes to a deeper understanding of PLA biodegradation dynamics and offers insights for effectively managing biodegradable materials in environmental settings.

Diffusion−reaction modeling↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bioelectrochemical reactor to manage anthropogenic sulfate pollution for freshwater ecosystems: Mathematical modeling and experimental validation

Anthropogenic sulfate loading into otherwise low-sulfate freshwater systems can cause significant ecological consequences as a biogeochemical stressor. To address this challenge, in situ bioremediation technologies have been developed to leverage naturally occurring microorganisms that transform sulfate into sulfide rather than implementing resource-intensive physio-chemical processes. However, bioremediation technologies often require the supply of electron donors to facilitate biological sulfate reduction. Bioelectrochemical systems (BES) can be an alternative approach for supplying molecular hydrogen as an electron donor for sulfate-reducing bacteria through water electrolysis. Although the fundamental mechanisms behind BESs have been studied, limited research has evaluated the design and operational parameters of treatment systems when developing BESs on a scale relevant to environmental systems. Further, this study aimed to develop an application-based mathematical model to evaluate the performance of BESs across a range of reactor configurations and operational modes. The model was based on sulfate transformation by hydrogenotrophic sulfate-reducing bacteria coupled with the recovery of solid iron sulfide species formed by the oxidative dissolution of dissolved ferrous iron from a stainless steel anode. Sulfate removal closely corresponded to the rate of electrolytic hydrogen production and hydraulic residence time but was less sensitive to specific microbial rate constants. The mathematical model results were compared to experimental data from a pilot-scale BES tested with nonacidic mine drainage as a case study. The close agreement between the mathematical model and the pilot-scale BES experiment highlights the efficacy of using a mathematical model as a tool to develop a conceptual design of a scaled-up treatment system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Illuminating the pathways to carbon liberation: a systems approach to characterizing the consequential unknowns of carbon transformation and loss from thawing permafrost peatlands (Final Report)

The IsoGenie3 Project delivered new systems-level insights into carbon cycling in thawing permafrost landscapes, with an emphasis on methane and carbon dioxide emissions. From >200 samples from the site collected over a decade, co-analyzed for geochemistry and microbiology, the team recovered ~1,500 assembled microbial genomes and ~1,900 viral population genomes, revealing appreciable genetic novelty - from a new highly abundant bacterial phylum, to novel methane consumers and their activities, to rampant viral novelty. IsoGenie3 linked these organisms to carbon compound transformations (which define the cycling of organic matter in soils, and the loss of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane), and saw that the microbes at each stage of permafrost thaw had different genetic potential to degrade categories of compounds, expressed that genetic potential differently, and actually transformed carbon compounds into greenhouse gases in different ways. IsoGenie 3 identified that some of the thaw-stage differences were due to plant-microbiome relationships; the plant species across the thaw gradient contributed different carbon compounds into the soil, and hosted distinct microbiota (differing among parts of plants as well as species). Lastly, microbes in the saturated post-thaw conditions appeared likely to contribute to the mobilization and toxification of mercury released during thaw. In parallel with ongoing field sampling and analysis, hypotheses arising from field observations were tested via lab incubation experiments. When communities are taken out of their native habitats, they behave differently, and the team first rigorously quantified the magnitude of this effect on microbiome composition and functional capacity, organic matter composition, and gas production; overall the main system processes were maintained in the lab incubations under the conditions tested. Further, the microbial data could inform geochemical reaction network models of those processes. Then, the team ran experiments with additions of compounds, varying temperature, and “live” vs. “dead” peat (the latter having been gamma irradiated, with a few additional variants to control for methodological artifacts). From these, we (a) determined the importance of plant-derived soluble phenolic compounds in bogs’ extraordinary recalcitrance of organic matter, and carbon gas emissions skewed to carbon dioxide; (b) proposed an abiotic ‘tanning’ mechanism, which could contribute to Sphagnum’s inhibitory effect on anaerobic decomposition through alteration of N availability. IsoGenie3 illuminated longer-term and landscape-scale interactions of permafrost thaw and carbon cycling, advancing knowledge of the drivers of methane dynamics not only across in the permafrost-associated peatland (where hydrology and plant communities dictate microbiomes) but also their interconnected lakes (where sediment carbon quality and resident microbiota are determined by position within lake, and lake features). By leveraging observations of site methane dynamics extending well before this project, the team was able to construct a 44-year portrait of the interplay of permafrost thaw, hydrology, vegetation dynamics, and carbon gas emissions, and the doubling of the fully-thawed fens over this time. From the detailed study of this focal site, IsoGenie3 also aimed to improve model representation of these kinds of sites and processes. To improve predictions of methane transformations, we incorporated acetate and isotope dynamics into the ‘DNDC’ biogeochemistry model. In addition, recovered genomes were grouped into ‘functional groups’, i.e. the genomes that perform a specific function of interest, then used to parameterize maximum growth rate and optimum growth temperature (via signatures in their sequence composition) for the BioCrunch model. The BioCrunch model was then in turn used to test the impact of increasing functional resolution of the microbes, on the carbon gas emissions. Lastly for modeling, the ecosys model was parameterized from the microbial and other data, and used to evaluate drivers of e.g. change in methane emissions. Finally, this project also led to the development of a range of new methods and tools, a new metric of organic matter decomposability, as well as a graph-database solution to multidisciplinary data storage and querying. This project’s ongoing analyses at our focal site also contributed to broader advancements in understanding elements of genetic plasticity and methane metabolism, climate change microbiology and community assembly, global peatland geochemistry and Arctic lakes’ roles in climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2016

Permeability of Two Parachute Fabrics - Measurements, Modeling, and Application

Two parachute fabrics, described by Parachute Industry Specifications PIA-C-7020D Type I and PIA-C-44378D Type I, were tested to obtain their permeabilities in air (i.e., flow-through volume of air per area per time) over the range of differential pressures from 0.146 psf (7 Pa) to 25 psf (1197 Pa). Both fabrics met their specification permeabilities at the standard differential pressure of 0.5 inch of water (2.60 psf, 124 Pa). The permeability results were transformed into an effective porosity for use in calculations related to parachutes. Models were created that related the effective porosity to the unit Reynolds number for each of the fabrics. As an application example, these models were used to calculate the total porosities for two geometrically-equivalent subscale Disk-Gap-Band (DGB) parachutes fabricated from each of the two fabrics, and tested at the same operating conditions in a wind tunnel. Using the calculated total porosities and the results of the wind tunnel tests, the drag coefficient of a geometrically-equivalent full-scale DGB operating on Mars was estimated.

Cruz, Juan R.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Permeability of Two Parachute Fabrics: Measurements, Modeling, and Application

Cruz, Juan R.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Explaining and predicting human behavior and social dynamics in simulated virtual worlds: reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of causal discovery methods

Ground Truth program was designed to evaluate social science modeling approaches using simulation test beds with ground truth intentionally and systematically embedded to understand and model complex Human Domain systems and their dynamics Lazer et al. (Science 369:1060–1062, 2020). Our multidisciplinary team of data scientists, statisticians, experts in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and visual analytics had a unique role on the program to investigate accuracy, reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of the state-of-the-art (SOTA) causal structure learning approaches applied to fully observed and sampled simulated data across virtual worlds. In addition, we analyzed the feasibility of using machine learning models to predict future social behavior with and without causal knowledge explicitly embedded. In this paper, we first present our causal modeling approach to discover the causal structure of four virtual worlds produced by the simulation teams—Urban Life, Financial Governance, Disaster and Geopolitical Conflict. Our approach adapts the state-of-the-art causal discovery (including ensemble models), machine learning, data analytics, and visualization techniques to allow a human-machine team to reverse-engineer the true causal relations from sampled and fully observed data. We next present our reproducibility analysis of two research methods team’s performance using a range of causal discovery models applied to both sampled and fully observed data, and analyze their effectiveness and limitations. We further investigate the generalizability and robustness to sampling of the SOTA causal discovery approaches on additional simulated datasets with known ground truth. Our results reveal the limitations of existing causal modeling approaches when applied to large-scale, noisy, high-dimensional data with unobserved variables and unknown relationships between them. We show that the SOTA causal models explored in our experiments are not designed to take advantage from vasts amounts of data and have difficulty recovering ground truth when latent confounders are present; they do not generalize well across simulation scenarios and are not robust to sampling; they are vulnerable to data and modeling assumptions, and therefore, the results are hard to reproduce. Finally, when we outline lessons learned and provide recommendations to improve models for causal discovery and prediction of human social behavior from observational data, we highlight the importance of learning data to knowledge representations or transformations to improve causal discovery and describe the benefit of causal feature selection for predictive and prescriptive modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Knowledge Oriented Graph Unified Transformer (KOGUT) v0.1

KOGUT — Knowledge Oriented Graph Unified Transformer KOGUT implements the Relational Graph Transformer (RelGT) architecture for knowledge graph link prediction in biological domains, with a primary focus on microbial growth media prediction. While the original RelGT (arXiv:2505.10960) targets relational tables, time series, and multi-table databases, KOGUT adapts this architecture for heterogeneous biological knowledge graphs, providing first-in-class AI predictive models for microbial cultivation. Key Adaptations Beyond Original RelGT: - Knowledge Graph Focus: Applied to biological KGs with semantic node types (taxa, chemicals, media, phenotypes, environments) versus generic relational database tables, trained on the KG-Microbe knowledge graph (1.3M entities, 2.9M edges, 24 relation types). - Multimodal Node Encoding: Integrates node labels, categories, descriptions, and synonyms from KG metadata through learned embedding layers—adapting relational column features to graph node attributes with textual semantics. - Extended K-Hop Subgraph Strategy: Optimized neighborhood sampling (3-hop default, configurable up to 200 nodes) tuned for sparse biological networks, building on the original local-global attention framework with biological relation preservation. - Biolink Predicate Preservation: Type-specific transformations for 24 biological edge semantics (occurs_in, consumes, produces, has_phenotype, subclass_of) beyond standard relational foreign keys, enabling multi-relation link prediction. - Inductive Learning Support: Enables zero-shot predictions for novel taxa through feature-based embeddings (temperature, oxygen requirements, gram stain, cell shape), extending the original transductive relational benchmark scope to uncultured microorganisms. CheapSOTA Performance Optimizations (This Distribution): - VQ-EMA Centroid Attention: Vector quantization with exponential moving average for improved global context modeling (+5-10% MRR improvement). - HDF5 Precomputed Data Loading: One-time preprocessing of k-hop subgraphs to eliminate redundant graph traversals (2-5× training speedup). - Distributed Data Parallel Training: Multi-GPU support for scaling to larger knowledge graphs (tested on 4× NVIDIA A100 GPUs at NERSC Perlmutter). - Mixed Precision Training: Automatic mixed precision (AMP) for memory efficiency and faster training. Advantages Over Standard Knowledge Graph Embedding Models: Combines RelGT's proven multi-element tokenization (features, type, hop, structure) with graph-native biological representations, enabling interpretable link prediction across heterogeneous entities that standard embedding models (TransE, RotatE, ComplEx) and table-based transformers cannot directly model. Achieves near-perfect performance on microbial growth media prediction (MRR: 0.9966, Precision@1: 0.9932, Hit@10: 1.0000) while maintaining explainability through attention-based reasoning over biological pathways. Training Data: - KG-Microbe merged knowledge graph: 1,379,337 nodes, 2,960,472 edges - 24 biological relation types including taxonomic hierarchies, metabolic interactions, phenotype associations, and environmental relationships - Primary prediction task: Growth media suitability for microbial taxa (biolink:occurs_in, 50K edges) - Multi-relation capability: Predicts links for any of the 24 relation types, including chemical consumption/production, phenotype associations, and taxonomic classification Citation: Original RelGT Architecture: Dwivedi et al., "Relational Graph Transformer", arXiv:2505.10960, 2025 KOGUT Implementation: Knowledge Oriented Graph Unified Transformer for Microbial Growth Media Prediction Developed at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) Trained on NERSC Perlmutter supercomputer

Joachimiak, Marcin [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab↗

DOE OSTI2024

In Situ Insights into Cathode Calcination for Predictive Synthesis: Kinetic Crystallization of LiNiO 2 from Hydroxides

Abstract Calcination is a solid‐state synthesis process widely deployed in battery cathode manufacturing. However, its inherent complexity associated with elusive intermediates hinders the predictive synthesis of high‐performance cathode materials. Here, correlative in situ X‐ray absorption/scattering spectroscopy is used to investigate the calcination of nickel‐based cathodes, focusing specifically on the archetypal LiNiO 2 from Ni(OH) 2 . Combining in situ observation with data‐driven analysis reveals concurrent lithiation and dehydration of Ni(OH) 2 and consequently, the low‐temperature crystallization of layered LiNiO 2 alongside lithiated rocksalts. Following early nucleation, LiNiO 2 undergoes sluggish crystallization and structural ordering while depleting rocksalts; ultimately, it turns into a structurally‐ordered layered phase upon full lithiation but remains small in size. Subsequent high‐temperature sintering induces rapid crystal growth, accompanied by undesired delithiation and structural degradation. These observations are further corroborated by mesoscale modeling, emphasizing that, even though calcination is thermally driven and favors transformation towards thermodynamically equilibrium phases, the actual phase propagation and crystallization can be kinetically tuned via lithiation, providing freedom for structural and morphological control during cathode calcination.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Generalized Copula-Polynomial Chaos Expansion for Probabilistic Power Flow Considering Nonlinear Correlations of PV Injections

This paper develops a generalized Copula-polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) framework for power system probabilistic power flow that can handle both linear and nonlinear correlations of uncertain power injections, such as wind and PVs. A data-driven Copula statistical model is used to capture the correlations of uncertain power injections. This allows us to resort to the Rosenblatt transformation to transform correlated variables into independent ones while preserving the dependence structure. This paves the way of leveraging the PCE for surrogate modeling and uncertainty quantification of power flow results, i.e., achieving the probabilistic distributions of power flows. Simulations carried out on the IEEE 57-bus system show that the proposed framework can get much more accurate results than other alternatives with different linear and nonlinear power injection correlations.

copula↗

DOE OSTI2025

A systematic review of machine learning in groundwater monitoring

With increasing concerns about water scarcity, groundwater has become crucial since this resource provides most of the freshwater needs. However, various human and natural activities often contaminate the groundwater, making it unsuitable for use. Over the years, scientists and engineers have used many methods to predict and track groundwater contamination as part of environmental monitoring. Consequently, there is an urgent need for improved methods, particularly in the face of increasing contamination. Machine learning has sometimes been used to monitor groundwater, air quality, and climate. Traditional methods must be improved due to the complexity and large amount of environmental data. This includes using hybrid models that combine traditional and new techniques. Despite the use of machine learning in many scientific areas, there is a lack of comprehensive reviews focusing on its use in environmental monitoring, especially groundwater monitoring. We aim to fill this gap by exploring machine-learning applications in groundwater monitoring. We discuss relevant methods, their limitations, and future potential. We summarize research on automating data processing and model training using groundwater sensor data. Our research underscores the transformative potential of machine learning to revolutionize long-term groundwater monitoring and contamination detection, providing valuable insights for future research and practical applications.

AI/ML↗

DOE OSTI2022

Investigation of crossed-twin structure formation in magnesium and magnesium alloys

In this work, the effect of alloying addition on the propensity for twin-twin interactions to transform into crossed-twin structures in magnesium alloys is investigated. A full-field elasto-viscoplastic fast Fourier transform (EVP-FFT) framework combined with a discrete twin model and dislocation density-based hardening law for slip strengths is used to calculate the micromechanical fields in the crystalline matrix around the interacting twins. AZ31 and MgLi alloys are selected along with pure Mg to study the influence of plastic anisotropy in connection with alloying elements. These alloys were selected since their plastic anisotropy measure, which is defined as the ratio between the critical resolved shear stress for pyramidal $\langle$c +a$\rangle$ and basal $\langle$a$\rangle$ slip modes, spanned a wide range. To quantify the role of twin thicknesses, we probe a range of impinging twin thicknesses while fixing the recipient twin thickness. The analysis reveals that: (i) the local driving stress for crossed twin structure formation generated from the interaction of the two twins is lower in a low plastically anisotropic material, like a MgLi alloy, than a high plastically anisotropic material like pure Mg and (ii) the critical impinging twin thickness needed to form the crossed twin structure in pure Mg, AZ31 and MgLi alloys is ~0.5, ~0.75 and ~1.5 times the recipient twin thickness. We propose a relationship between the tendency for crossed twin structure formation and the experimentally observed higher ductility in MgLi alloys compared to pure Mg. Finally, one key implication of the findings is that crossed- twin structure formation can be hindered and the ductility of magnesium alloy thereby improved by properly choosing alloying elements that lower the slip strength for pyramidal $\langle$c + a$\rangle$ slip.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data augmentation for disruption prediction via robust surrogate models

The goal of this work is to generate large statistically representative data sets to train machine learning models for disruption prediction provided by data from few existing discharges. Such a comprehensive training database is important to achieve satisfying and reliable prediction results in artificial neural network classifiers. Here, we aim for a robust augmentation of the training database for multivariate time series data using Student t process regression. We apply Student t process regression in a state space formulation via Bayesian filtering to tackle challenges imposed by outliers and noise in the training data set and to reduce the computational complexity. Thus, the method can also be used if the time resolution is high. We use an uncorrelated model for each dimension and impose correlations afterwards via colouring transformations. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on plasma diagnostics data of three different disruption classes from the DIII-D tokamak. To evaluate if the distribution of the generated data is similar to the training data, we additionally perform statistical analyses using methods from time series analysis, descriptive statistics and classic machine learning clustering algorithms.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ultrafast Bragg coherent diffraction imaging of epitaxial thin films using deep complex-valued neural networks

Abstract Domain wall structures form spontaneously due to epitaxial misfit during thin film growth. Imaging the dynamics of domains and domain walls at ultrafast timescales can provide fundamental clues to features that impact electrical transport in electronic devices. Recently, deep learning based methods showed promising phase retrieval (PR) performance, allowing intensity-only measurements to be transformed into snapshot real space images. While the Fourier imaging model involves complex-valued quantities, most existing deep learning based methods solve the PR problem with real-valued based models, where the connection between amplitude and phase is ignored. To this end, we involve complex numbers operation in the neural network to preserve the amplitude and phase connection. Therefore, we employ the complex-valued neural network for solving the PR problem and evaluate it on Bragg coherent diffraction data streams collected from an epitaxial La 2-x Sr x CuO 4 (LSCO) thin film using an X-ray Free Electron Laser (XFEL). Our proposed complex-valued neural network based approach outperforms the traditional real-valued neural network methods in both supervised and unsupervised learning manner. Phase domains are also observed from the LSCO thin film at an ultrafast timescale using the complex-valued neural network.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

The diversity and evolution of microbial dissimilatory phosphite oxidation

Significance Geochemical models of the phosphorus (P) cycle uniquely ignore microbial redox transformations. Yet phosphite is a reduced P source that has been detected in several environments at concentrations that suggest a contemporary P redox cycle. Microbial dissimilatory phosphite oxidation (DPO) converts soluble phosphite into phosphate, and a false notion of rarity has limited our understanding of its diversity and environmental distribution. Here we demonstrate that DPO is an ancient energy metabolism hosted by taxonomically diverse, autotrophic bacteria that exist globally throughout anoxic environments. DPO microorganisms are therefore likely to have provided bioavailable phosphate and fixed carbon to anoxic ecosystems throughout Earth’s history and continue to do so in contemporary environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data-driven Detection and Early Prediction of Thermoacoustic Instability in a Multi-nozzle Combustor

Thermoacoustic instability (TAI) is a critical issue in modern lean-burn gas-turbine combustors, which is induced by a strong coupling between the resonant combustor acoustics and fluctuations in the heat release rate. This instability may lead to high-amplitude pressure waves that generate undesirable noise levels as well as fatigue stresses in mechanical structures of the combustor. The intense pressure fluctuations due to TAI may also cause large flow perturbations and possibly flow reversal that may lead to flame oscillations, flame liftoff, and even flame blow-out. Hence, there is a strong need for exercising control actions in a timely fashion to mitigate the TAI phenomena. Anomaly detection is an essential prerequisite to the design of a good controller and such a detector must be able to reliably predict a forthcoming TAI. To detect and predict the onset of a TAI from an ensemble of pressure time series, this paper investigates three data-driven methods: Fast Fourier transform (FFT), symbolic time series analysis (STSA), and hidden Markov modeling (HMM). The main focus of the paper is to make a comparative evaluation of these three anomaly detection methods for classification of the current regime of operation into stable and unstable categories as well as for real-time identification of precursors to impending instabilities with short-length time series of measured variables (e.g., pressure oscillations). Finally, the results, generated on experimental data from a multi-nozzle combustor apparatus, have been compared to evaluate the performance of FFT, STSA, and HMM methods for TAI analysis.

42 ENGINEERING↗