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Satellite freeze forecast system: Executive summary

A satellite-based temperature monitoring and prediction system consisting of a computer controlled acquisition, processing, and display system and the ten automated weather stations called by that computer was developed and transferred to the national weather service. This satellite freeze forecasting system (SFFS) acquires satellite data from either one of two sources, surface data from 10 sites, displays the observed data in the form of color-coded thermal maps and in tables of automated weather station temperatures, computes predicted thermal maps when requested and displays such maps either automatically or manually, archives the data acquired, and makes comparisons with historical data. Except for the last function, SFFS handles these tasks in a highly automated fashion if the user so directs. The predicted thermal maps are the result of two models, one a physical energy budget of the soil and atmosphere interface and the other a statistical relationship between the sites at which the physical model predicts temperatures and each of the pixels of the satellite thermal map.

Martsolf, J. D.↗

Sensible-Enthalpy-Based Conditional Moment Closure Model for Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition with Temperature Inhomogeneity

Abstract This paper presents a sensible-enthalpy-based conditional moment closure (CMC) model for homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI) with temperature inhomogeneity. The focus of study is placed on the effects of a conditioning variable on the prediction of heat release rates and developing the mixing models for sensible enthalpy, a reacting scalar. The sensible-enthalpy-based CMC model is validated a priori with 2-D direct numerical simulation (DNS) data for HCCI, and compared with the total-enthalpy-based formulation. Sensible enthalpy is shown to be strongly correlated with temperature, which makes sensible enthalpy well suited for a conditioning variable in CMC for HCCI. Results show that sensible-enthalpy-based CMC performs well for the prediction of heat release rates for all temperature stratification levels investigated in this study, while total-enthalpy-based CMC leads to the overprediction of heat release rates when the temperature stratification level is high. While conditional fluctuations of species mass fractions are substantial, sensible-enthalpy-based CMC is found to accurately estimate heat release rates during ignition, as well as reaction rates of key species, due to substantially suppressed conditional temperature fluctuations. The mapping closure models for the probability density function (PDF) and conditional dissipation rates of sensible enthalpy are proposed. The proposed models are found to capture the characteristics of reactive scalar mixing.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Simulated convective systems using a cloud resolving model: Impact of large-scale temperature and moisture forcing using observations and GEOS-3 reanalysis

The GCE (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble) model, which has been developed and improved at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center over the past two decades, is considered as one of the finer and state-of-the-art CRMs (Cloud Resolving Models) in the research community. As the chosen CRM for a NASA Interdisciplinary Science (IDS) Project, GCE has recently been successfully upgraded into an MPI (Message Passing Interface) version with which great improvement has been achieved in computational efficiency, scalability, and portability. By basically using the large-scale temperature and moisture advective forcing, as well as the temperature, water vapor and wind fields obtained from TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) field experiments such as SCSMEX (South China Sea Monsoon Experiment) and KWAJEX (Kwajalein Experiment), our recent 2-D and 3-D GCE simulations were able to capture detailed convective systems typical of the targeted (simulated) regions. The GEOS-3 [Goddard EOS (Earth Observing System) Version-3] reanalysis data have also been proposed and successfully implemented for usage in the proposed/performed GCE long-term simulations (i.e., aiming at producing massive simulated cloud data -- Cloud Library) in compensating the scarcity of real field experimental data in both time and space (location). Preliminary 2-D or 3-D pilot results using GEOS-3 data have generally showed good qualitative agreement (yet some quantitative difference) with the respective numerical results using the SCSMEX observations. The first objective of this paper is to ensure the GEOS-3 data quality by comparing the model results obtained from several pairs of simulations using the real observations and GEOS-3 reanalysis data. The different large-scale advective forcing obtained from these two kinds of resources (i.e., sounding observations and GEOS-3 reanalysis) has been considered as a major critical factor in producing various model results. The second objective of this paper is therefore to investigate and present such an impact of large-scale forcing on various modeled quantities (such as hydrometeors, rainfall, and etc.). A third objective is to validate the overall GCE 3-D model performance by comparing the numerical results with sounding observations, as well as available satellite retrievals.

Shie, C.-L.↗

Multi-Fidelity Modeling and Control for Building Temperature Control

The ability to control energy loads such as a building's heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system can help facilitate increased penetration of variable renewable energy sources into the electric grid. To be able to control these HVAC systems more effectively, detailed simulations of the corresponding building physics is becoming increasingly important. These detailed simulations can be complex, nonlinear, and can require immense computational power when used in an advanced control method such as model predictive control (MPC), prompting the need to explore less computationally intensive strategies. In this work, a multi-fidelity approach is proposed to combine samples from a complex, high-fidelity model with a simple, low-fidelity model within the MPC control loop. More specifically, the parameters of a reduced-order, linear building model are periodically updated with knowledge from its high-fidelity counterpart - an EnergyPlus model - in an online fashion using a Gaussian Process surrogate model. Hence, highly accurate predictions of current and future conditions in a building are maintained with a substantially reduced computational burden compared to using the high-fidelity models alone. In other words, this linear parameter varying model preserves the low computational requirements of a low-order linear model while accurately modeling a building's dynamics. This allows a building controller to take highly informed actions without requiring a large computational budget.

building modeling↗

XMM-Newton and Chandra Observations of the Candidate Fermi-LAT Pulsar 4FGL J1015.5-6030

4FGL J1015.5-6030 is an unidentified Fermi-LAT source hosting a bright, extended X-ray source whose X-ray spectrum is consistent with that of a young pulsar, yet no pulsations have been found. Here we report on XMM-Newton timing and Chandra imaging observations of the X-ray counterpart of 4FGL J1015.5-6030. We find no significant periodicity from the source and place a 3σ upper limit on its pulsed fraction of 34%. The Chandra observations resolve the point source from the extended emission. We find that the point source's spectrum is well fit by a blackbody model, with temperature kT = 0.205 ± 0.009 keV, plus a weak power-law component, which is consistent with a thermally emitting neutron star with a magnetospheric component. The extended emission spans angular scales of a few arcseconds up to about 30'' from the point source and its spectrum is well fit by a power-law model with a photon index Γ = 1.70 ± 0.05. The extended emission's spectrum and 0.5–10 keV luminosity of 4 × 10 32 erg s −1 (at a plausible distance of 2 kpc) are consistent with that of a pulsar wind nebula. Based on a comparison to other GeV and X-ray pulsars, we find that this putative pulsar is likely a middle-aged (i.e., τ ∼ 0.1–1 Myr) radio-quiet pulsar with Ė~10 34 -10 35 erg s −1 .

Pulsars↗

Wind enhanced planetary escape: Collisional modifications

The problem of thermal escape is considered in which both the effects of thermospheric winds at the exobase and collisions below the exobase are included in a Monte Carlo calculation. The collisions are included by means of a collisional relaxation layer of a background gas which models the transition region between the exosphere and the thermosphere. The wind effects are considered in the limiting cases of vertical and horizontal flows. Two species are considered: terrestrial hydrogen and terrestrial helium. In the cases of terrestrial hydrogen the escape fluxes were found to be strongly filtered or throttled by collisions at high exospheric temperatures. The model is applied to molecular hydrogen diffusing through a methane relaxation layer under conditions possible on Titan. The results are similar to the case of terrestrial hydrogen with wind enhanced escape being strongly suppressed by collisions. It is concluded that wind enhanced escape is not an important process on Titan.

Curtis, S. A.↗

Imaging infrared: Scene simulation, modeling, and real image tracking; Proceedings of the Meeting, Orlando, FL, Mar. 30, 31, 1989

Various papers on scene simulation, modeling, and real image tracking using IR imaging are presented. Individual topics addressed include: tactical IR scene generator, dynamic FLIR simulation in flight training research, high-speed dynamic scene simulation in UV to IR spectra, development of an IR sensor calibration facility, IR celestial background scene description, transmission measurement of optical components at cryogenic temperatures, diffraction model for a point-source generator, silhouette-based tracking for tactical IR systems, use of knowledge in electrooptical trackers, detection and classification of target formations in IR image sequences, SMPRAD: simplified three-dimensional cloud radiance model, IR target generator, recent advances in testing of thermal imagers, generic IR system models with dynamic image generation, modeling realistic target acquisition using IR sensors in multiple-observer scenarios, and novel concept of scene generation and comprehensive dynamic sensor test.

Triplett, Milton J.↗

Optical Thin Films for Gas Sensing in Advanced Coal Fired Power Plants

Even for existing coal based plants, the opportunity for sensors and controls to improve efficiency is great. A wide range of gas species are of interest for relevant applications. Functional sensor layers for embedded sensing must be compatible with extreme conditions (temperature, pressure, corrosive). Au incorporated metal oxides have been looked at by a number of other authors previously for gas sensing, but have often focused on temperatures below 500{degree}C. Au nanoparticle incorporated metal oxide thin films have shown enhanced gas sensing response. In prior work, we have demonstrated that material systems such as Au nanoparticle incorporated TiO{sub 2} films exhibit a potentially useful optical response to changing gas atmospheres at temperatures up to ~800-850{degree}C. Current work is focused on sputter-deposited Au/TiO{sub 2} films. Au and Ti are multi-layered sputter deposited, followed by a 950{degree}C oxidation step. Increasing Au layer thickness yields larger particles. Interband electronic transitions significantly modify the optical constants of Au as compared to the damped free electron theory. A high temperature oxidation (20%O{sub 2}/N{sub 2}) treatment was performed at 700{degree}C followed by a reduction (4%H{sub 2}/N{sub 2}) treatment to illustrate the shift in both absorption and scattering with exposure to reducing gases. Shift of localized surface plasmon resonance (LSPR) absorption peak in changing gas atmospheres is well documented, but shift in the peak associated with diffuse scattering is a new observation. Increasing Au layer-thickness results in an increase in LSPR absorption and a shift to longer wavelengths. Diffuse scattering associated with the LSPR resonance of Au shows a similar trend with increasing Au thickness. To model the temperature dependence of LSPR, the modification to the plasmon frequency, the damping frequency, and the dielectric constant of the oxide matrix must be accounted for. Thermal expansion of Au causes a decrease in free-carrier concentration and plasmon frequency with increasing temperature. Increased scattering of electrons with increasing temperatures results in an increased damping frequency for free carriers. The thermo-optic coefficient of TiO{sub 2} is assumed to be constant or decreasing with increasing temperature. A Custom Designed System Can Be Used to Monitor Optical Transmission and Reflection of Films at Elevated Temperatures and Upon Exposure to Changing Ambient Gas Atmospheres. The calculated extinction peak broadens and reduces peak height with increasing temperature. Extinction spectra measured using the elevated temperature system deviate from measurements performed with an integrating sphere. Modifications to measured transmittance and reflectance spectra are observed with increasing temperatures. Optical constants of Au nanoparticles were measured for elevated temperature. The thermo-optic coefficient of TiO{sub 2} strongly affects the shift in LSPR absorption peak. Peak broadening is dictated by the increased damping frequency of Au. In all cases of the theoretical modeling, we are assuming a particle of Au embedded in a TiO{sub 2} matrix without any interparticle interaction. Localized surface plasmon resonance in noble metal nanoparticles is associated with the free electrons. Surface charges create an internal field that acts as a restoring force on displaced charge carriers resulting in an oscillation with an associated resonance. An estimate of the sensitivity as a function of wavelength for sensing done using a single wavelength transmission measurement can be derived by focusing on the partial derivative of Q{sub abs} with respect to the material parameter that we assume is changing during the experiment. We focus on the free carrier density. However, other material parameters may also change in some cases. Peak sensitivity for transmission or absorption based sensing occurs on either side of the LSPR absorption peak maximum. Theoretically predicted wavelength dependence is consistent with the literature. The wavelength of LSPR absorption peak sensitivity shifts with increasing temperature due to broadening and peak shifting. The maximum sensitivity decreases with increasing temperature. The sensitivity should also depend on the mechanism responsible for the solid-gas interaction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

21st century tundra shrubification could enhance net carbon uptake of North America Arctic tundra under an RCP8.5 climate trajectory

Recent observed shifts in Arctic tundra shrub cover have uncertain impacts on 21st century net ecosystem carbon exchanges. Here we applied a well-tested ecosystem model, ecosys, to examine the effects of North America Arctic tundra plant dynamics on ecosystem carbon balances from 1980-2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Tundra productivity was modeled to increase from enhanced carbon fixation and N mineralization under recent and future climates. Between 1982 and 2100 and averaged across the region, predicted increases in relative dominance of woody versus non-woody plants increased ecosystem annual net primary productivity by 244 g C m -2 that offset concurrent increases in annual heterotrophic respiration (139 g C m -2 ), resulting in an increasing net carbon sink over the 21st century. However, smaller increases in seasonal carbon uptake during winter (1 g C m -2 ) and autumn (22 g C m -2 ) and greater increases in ecosystem respiration (winter (23 g C m -2 ) and autumn (47 g C m -2 )) by 2100 versus 1982 resulted in larger carbon losses during these seasons that completely offset the gains in spring (13 g C m -2 ) and 25% of the gains in summer (140 g C m -2 ). Modeled soil temperatures were predicted to increase more slowly than air temperatures (~0.6 °C for every 1 °C increase in air temperature over the 21st century). This slower soil versus air warming, and thus greater increases in CO 2 fixation versus soil respiration rates, also contributed to the tundra remaining a carbon sink through 2100. However, these higher gains versus losses of carbon may be a transient response and not sustainable under further soil warming beyond 2100. Our modeling analysis allows us to extend beyond results from short-term warming experiments, which cannot characterize effects associated with decadal-scale changes in plant communities.

21st century carbon cycle↗

A simple object-oriented and open-source model for scientific and policy analyses of the global climate system – Hector v1.0

Simple climate models play an integral role in the policy and scientific communities. They are used for climate mitigation scenarios within integrated assessment models, complex climate model emulation, and uncertainty analyses. Here we describe Hector v1.0, an open source, object-oriented, simple global climate carbon-cycle model. This model runs essentially instantaneously while still representing the most critical global-scale earth system processes. Hector has a three-part main carbon cycle: a one-pool atmosphere, land, and ocean. The model's terrestrial carbon cycle includes primary production and respiration fluxes, accommodating arbitrary geographic divisions into, e.g., ecological biomes or political units. Hector actively solves the inorganic carbon system in the surface ocean, directly calculating air–sea fluxes of carbon and ocean pH. Hector reproduces the global historical trends of atmospheric [CO 2 ], radiative forcing, and surface temperatures. The model simulates all four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) with equivalent rates of change of key variables over time compared to current observations, MAGICC (a well-known simple climate model), and models from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Hector's flexibility, open-source nature, and modular design will facilitate a broad range of research in various areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Design and Fabrication of a Composite Morphing Radiator Panel Using High Conductivity Fibers

Upcoming crewed space missions will involve large internal and external heat loads and require advanced thermal control systems to maintain a desired internal environment temperature. Radiators with at least 12:1 turndown ratios (the ratio between the maximum and minimum heat rejection rates) will be needed. However, current technologies are only able to achieve turndown ratios of approximately 3:1. A morphing radiator capable of altering shape could significantly increase turndown capabilities. Shape memory alloys offer qualities that may be well suited for this endeavor; their temperature-dependent phase changes could offer radiators the ability to passively control heat rejection. In 2015, a morphing radiator prototype was constructed and tested in a thermal vacuum environment, where it successfully demonstrated the morphing behavior and variable heat rejection. Newer composite prototypes have since been designed and manufactured using two distinct types of SMA materials. These models underwent temperature cycling tests in a thermal vacuum chamber and a series of fatigue tests to characterize the lifespan of these designs. The focus of this paper is to present the design approach and testing of the morphing composite facesheet. The discussion includes: an overall description of the project background, definition of performance requirements, composite materials selection, use of analytic and numerical design tools, facesheet fabrication, and finally fatigue testing with accompanying results.

Wescott, Matthew T.↗

The LAKE model input dataset for three Arctic lakes

This dataset contains meteorological data collected for three Arctic lakes and compiled to satisfy input requirements of the LAKE 2.0 model. The dataset was generated to act as a benchmarking dataset for future model-data inter-comparisons. The LAKE 2.0 model simulates temperatures within the water later and the sedimentary layer of a lake. The LAKE2.0. is an open-source code and available to download via this weblike http://tesla.parallel.ru/Viktor/LAKE/-/wikis/LAKE-model (last visit July 14, 2021). The meteorological data are required to simulate the surface energy balance at the surface of a lake. This dataset includes a compilation of the meteorological data pulled from multiple data streams, including National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) climate data, Circumarctic Lakes Observation Network (CALON) data, and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) data. The data were compiled for three Arctic lakes: FoxDen (66.55877, -164.45670), Atqasuk (70.452497, -156.951984), and Toolik (68.63150, -149.60740). Each meteorological data is in comma-delimited format (file extension ‘.dat’) and includes eight columns: Temperature [K], Pressure [Pa], longwave downward radiation [W/m2], shortwave downward radiation [W/m2], “U” wind speed [m/s], ”V” wind speed [m/s], humidity [kg/kg], precipitation [m/s]. In addition to the meteorological data file, we included setup and driver files. The Toolik lake is the deepest out of three lakes and has inflowing and outflowing groundwater data. InflowOutflowREADME.txt has more information about inflow and outflow flies. The other two lakes are much shallower and modeled as a closed system (i.e. no water inflow or outflow).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

TOUGH3/EOS7MG (EOS7MG) v1.1

EOS7MG is a new TOUGH3 module for modeling water, brine, and multiple gas mixtures in the subsurface multiphase flow system. The module allows mixture of as more as three gas components selecting from a list of predefined gases (CH4, C2H6, C3H8, H2S, CO2, N2, NO2, H2, and AIR). EOS7MG was developed based on EOS7C and inherited the general modeling capabilities of the TOUGH3 platform. It uses cubic equation of states for gas density, viscosity, and enthalpy calculation. The module provides the selection options for Peng-Robinson, Redlich-Kwong, or Soave-Redlich-Kwong equations of state. The subsurface flow and transport of gas and aqueous phase mixtures over a wide range of pressures and temperatures is modeled with a multiphase Darcy's Law and an accurate chemical equilibrium approach as originally implemented in EOS7C is used for calculation of the solubilities of different mass components. EOS7MG was designed to allow flexible number of components based on the number of gases included in the model. The potential application of this module may include subsurface gas storage, energy storage, CCS, enhanced gas recovery, and more.

Zhang, Keni↗

Submillimeter and millimeter observations of Uranus and Neptune

Neptune and Uranus were studied at submillimeter and millimeter wavelengths for 2 yr using the UK IR telescope and the NASA IR telescope at Mauna Kea and the 12 dish at Kitt Peak, AZ. The brightness temperatures of both planets are provided at various wavelengths over the 0.35-3.3 mm interval scanned in the study. The present data, in combination with data from the 17 microns-3 mm interval scanned in the study. The present data, in combination with data from the 17 microns-3 mm interval taken during previous campaigns, are employed to model the temperature structures in the atmospheres of the two planets over the vertical range 100 mbar-8 bar. The data support the presence of active convection processes at the 1 bar level and deeper in both atmospheres. A static equilibrium however, exists between para-H2 and ortho-H2, along with a constant CH4 fraction of 2 percent. Deficiencies in the current database are detailed.

Orton, G. S.↗

Modeling dark- and light-induced crystal structures and single-crystal optical absorption spectra of ruthenium-based complexes that undergo SO 2 -linkage photoisomerization

A family of coordination complexes of the type [Ru(SO 2 )(NH 3 ) 4 X] m+ Y n – (m, n = 1 or 2) exhibit optical switching capabilities in their single-crystal states. This striking effect is caused by the light-induced formation of SO 2 -linkage photoisomers, which are metastable if kept at suitably cool temperatures. We modeled the dark- and light-induced states of these large crystalline complexes via plane-wave (PW)- and molecular-orbital (MO)-based density functional theory (DFT) and time-dependent DFT in order to calculate their structural and optical properties; the calculated results are compared with experimental data. We show that the PW-DFT-based periodic models replicate the structural properties of these complexes more effectively than the MO-DFT-based molecular-fragment models, observing only small deviations in key bond lengths relative to the experimentally derived crystal structures. The periodic models were also found to more effectively simulate trends seen in experimental optical absorption spectra, with optical absorbance and coverage of the visible region increasing with the formation of the photoinduced geometries. The contribution of the metastable photoisomeric species more heavily focuses on the lower-energy end of the spectra. Spectra generated from the molecular-fragment models are limited by the geometry of the fragment used and the number of excited-state roots considered in those calculations. In general, periodic models outperform the molecular-fragment models owing to their ability to better appreciate the periodic phenomena that are present in these crystalline materials as opposed to MO approaches, which are finite methods. We thus demonstrate that PW-DFT-based periodic models should be considered as a more than viable method for simulating the optical and electronic properties of these single-crystal optical switches.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The effect of temperature evolution on the interior structure of H{sub 2}O-rich planets

For most planets in the range of radii from 1 to 4 R {sub ⊕}, water is a major component of the interior composition. At high pressure H{sub 2}O can be solid, but for larger planets, like Neptune, the temperature can be too high for this. Mass and age play a role in determining the transition between solid and fluid (and mixed) water-rich super-Earth. We use the latest high-pressure and ultra-high-pressure phase diagrams of H{sub 2}O, and by comparing them with the interior adiabats of various planet models, the temperature evolution of the planet interior is shown, especially for the state of H{sub 2}O. It turns out that the bulk of H{sub 2}O in a planet's interior may exist in various states such as plasma, superionic, ionic, Ice VII, Ice X, etc., depending on the size, age, and cooling rate of the planet. Different regions of the mass-radius phase space are also identified to correspond to different planet structures. In general, super-Earth-size planets (isolated or without significant parent star irradiation effects) older than about 3 Gyr would be mostly solid.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Test-Free Fracture Toughness

Computational simulation results can give the prediction of damage growth and progression and fracture toughness of composite structures. The experimental data from literature provide environmental effects on the fracture behavior of metallic or fiber composite structures. However, the traditional experimental methods to analyze the influence of the imposed conditions are expensive and time consuming. This research used the CODSTRAN code to model the temperature effects, scaling effects and the loading effects of fiberbraided composite specimens with and without fiber-optic sensors on the damage initiation and energy release rates. The load-displacement relationship and fracture toughness assessment approach is compared with the test results from literature and it is verified that the computational simulation, with the use of established material modeling and finite element modules, adequately tracks the changes of fracture toughness and subsequent fracture propagation for any fiberbraided composite structure due to the change of fiber orientations, presence of large diameter optical fibers, and any loading conditions.

Minnetyan, Levon↗

Test-Free Fracture Toughness

Computational simulation results can give the prediction of damage growth and progression and fracture toughness of composite structures. The experimental data from literature provide environmental effects on the fracture behavior of metallic or fiber composite structures. However, the traditional experimental methods to analyze the influence of the imposed conditions are expensive and time consuming. This research used the CODSTRAN code to model the temperature effects, scaling effects and the loading effects of fiber/braided composite specimens with and without fiber-optic sensors on the damage initiation and energy release rates. The load-displacement relationship and fracture toughness assessment approach is compared with the test results from literature and it is verified that the computational simulation, with the use of established material modeling and finite element modules, adequately tracks the changes of fracture toughness and subsequent fracture propagation for any fiber/braided composite structure due to the change of fiber orientations, presence of large diameter optical fibers, and any loading conditions.

Minnetyan, Levon↗