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At least 1,459 records · Page 81

Integrated low carbon H 2 conversion with in situ carbon mineralization from aqueous biomass oxygenate precursors by tuning reactive multiphase chemical interactions

Meeting our rising demand for clean energy carriers such as H 2 from renewable biomass resources is challenged by the co-emission of CO 2 and CH 4 . To address this challenge, we design novel reactive separation pathways that integrate multiphase chemical reactions by harnessing Ca and Mg bearing minerals as a sorbent to capture CO 2 released during the hydrothermal deconstruction of aqueous biomass oxygenates to produce H 2 and solid carbonates via low temperature aqueous phase reforming and thermodynamically downhill carbon mineralization. Earth abundant catalysts such as Ni/Al 2 O 3 are effective in producing H 2 yields as high as 79% and 74% using ethylene glycol and methanol in the presence of Ca(OH) 2 as an alkaline sorbent, without contaminating or deactivating the catalyst. H 2 yields with in situ carbon mineralization using a Ni or Pt/Al 2 O 3 catalyst are enhanced based on the following order of reactivity: acetate < glycerol < methanol < formate < ethylene glycol. These studies demonstrate that the multiphase chemical interactions can be successfully tuned to enhance H 2 yields through the selective cleavage of C–C bonds using Ni/Al 2 O 3 catalysts to deconstruct biomass oxygenates for producing H 2 and CO 2 , and in situ carbon mineralization by harnessing abundant alkaline materials, as demonstrated using ladle slag. This approach unlocks new scientific possibilities for harnessing multiple emissions including abundant organic-rich wastewater streams and alkaline industrial residues to co-produce low carbon H 2 and carbonate-bearing materials for use in construction by using renewable solar thermal energy resources.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Exploring Applications of Machine Learning for Wildfire Monitoring and Detection using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Wildfires are increasing in frequency and severity around the world, including the United States. The losses caused by wildfires could be mitigated if high-risk areas, hotspots, and flare-ups could be monitored continuously, such as through the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). This paper documents exploratory efforts using machine learning to determine efficient flight paths for UAVs and to detect wildfires using image classification. On path planning, three machine learning techniques—Genetic Algorithm, Simulated Annealing, and Dynamic Programming—were explored. Genetic Algorithm was found to be an effective approach for path planning for wildfire monitoring and surveillance by UAVs. For a scenario of 25 locations in a circular arrangement, the algorithm was able to return the optimal path. The accuracy and execution time was found to be sensitive to the algorithm hyperparameters selected, which was especially evident in scenarios with hundreds or thousands of locations. Simulated Annealing was also found to be an effective approach for UAV path planning, with a major benefit of avoiding getting trapped in local minima and being straightforward to implement. Like Genetic Algorithm, the performance of Simulated Annealing was also found to be sensitive to the algorithm hyperparameters selected. By comparison, Dynamic Programming guarantees optimality for any number of locations, but it was found to be less practical in terms of execution time for scenarios with more than about a couple dozen locations. On wildfire detection, image classification using deep learning with a convolutional neural network was explored. Transfer learning was found to be a useful technique to efficiently train deep learning models. Also, it was determined that GPU processing can increase training speed by an order of magnitude, which enables significantly faster development. For a validation test set of 500 images, there were only two false negatives and zero false positives. These results demonstrate that detecting wildfires in static cameras using machine learning is feasible and establish a baseline for using images captured by UAVs in flight for wildfire detection.

Wildfire management↗

Prediction of alkaline earth metal ion adsorption on goethite for various background electrolytes with the CD-MUSIC model

As water scarcity drives the use of more saline water sources, contaminant fate and transport models must capture the impact of high concentrations of alkaline earth metal ions (AEMs) and background electrolytes in these more complex waters. By utilizing macroscopic adsorption data from various electrolyte systems, a Charge Distribution – Multisite Complexation (CD-MUSIC) model, capable of incorporating electrolyte adsorption, was able to accurately simulate the adsorption behavior of alkaline earth metal ions onto goethite. The modeling effort was guided by previous spectroscopic and surface complexation modeling of alkaline earth metal adsorption and built on previous CD-MUSIC modeling that accounted for changes in crystal face contributions to the surface site density as a function of specific surface area. Further, the model was constrained to consider only two dominant surface complex species for each metal ion adsorption reaction. These two species were selected from 44 possible species through objective curve fitting of single-solute macroscopic adsorption data. While most of the alkaline earth metal surface complexes formed outer-sphere complexes at the goethite surface, an inner-sphere species was utilized for Mg 2+ . With the surface complex species and equilibrium constants obtained from this study, the calibrated model successfully predicted alkaline earth metal ion adsorption over a wide range of solution and surface conditions; the model predictions encompassed a wide range of pH (5–11), solute/solid ratio (1.37 × 10 -5 – 8.33 × 10 -4 mol -solute /g -solid ), ionic strengths (0.01 M – 0.7 M), and background electrolytes (Na + , Cs + , Rb + , Cl - , and NO 3 - ) using the same crystal face contribution methodology for site density, capacitance values, and surface acidity constants adopted for proton and cadmium adsorption in previous work (Han and Katz, 2019). Model simulations for a range of background water chemistries demonstrated the potential for Mg 2+ to reduce Cd 2+ adsorption to goethite in model seawater and oil- and gas-produced waters.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DNA Strand Displacement Driven Molecular Additive Manufacturing (DSD-MAM)

The goal of this project was to validate two-dimensional molecular printers, initially selfassembled from DNA and then actuated by externally driven cycles of DNA strand displacement, as prototype integrated nanosystems for molecular additive manufacturing. Novel functionalities of these nanomachines were explored during this project, including the following: nanometer-precision positioning mechanisms based on DNA strand displacement with multivalent interactions for discrete stepping or else diffusive capture; integration of independently moving layers of DNA origami to achieve 2D controllable motion; integration of spatial positioning with deposition functionality. The principal importance of this project was to provide an essential step in the development of a new technology for atomically precise manufacturing. Our first generation molecular 2D printer offers several advantages over conventional DNA-origami patterning, such as faster prototyping, faster dynamic rearrangement of patterns, and the ability to respond with feedback. We anticipate that our first-generation molecular printers may inspire future generations of molecular printers with iterative improvements in robustness and throughput. Potential applications of atomically precise manufacturing include the following: photovoltaics; photosynthetic and fuel cells; thermoelectrics and anisotropic heat spreaders; solid-state lighting; molecular electronic and plasmonic circuits; selectively preamble membranes; self-repairing materials with high strength-to-weight and fracture resistance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Nuclear data uncertainty quantification for the nuclide inventory of a Calvert Cliffs spent fuel sample

The impact of nuclear data cross section uncertainties and covariance matrices on the nuclide vector of spent nuclear fuel was investigated; This exercise was carried out for the Calvert Cliffs fuel assembly D047 benchmark available in the SFCOMPO database. Sample P irradiated in rod MKP109 for 4 cycles up to a burnup of approximately 44 GWd/MTU was selected for the analysis. Nuclear data uncertainties were taken from the most recent libraries released by evaluation projects JEFF, ENDF/B and JENDL, and were propagated using the SANDY code via a stochastic sampling approach. This paper provides a quantification of the uncertainty on the concentration of several actinides and fission products relevant for spent fuel management. Uncertainties generally below 5 % were predicted for the concentrations of most of the uranium, neptunium and plutonium isotopes relevant for SNF applications. Curium isotopes carry larger uncertainties that might exceed 10 %. The contribution of cross section uncertainties on the concentrations of fission products was found to be marginal with the exception of a few nuclides. These results can be significantly affected by the lack of evaluated covariance matrices for the capture cross section of several fission products. Burnup tracers such as {sup 148}Nd and {sup 137}Cs have negligible uncertainties because of the power normalisation imposed in every stochastic calculation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Exploration Architecture with Quantum Inertial Gravimetry and In-Situ ChipSat Sensors

The Dual Exploration Architecture is a mission concept that combines remote sensing and in-situ observations into a single mission to answer planetary science questions that can only be answered with both types of data. Adoption of dual exploration architectures may short circuit the long, slow cycle of missions to inaccessible bodies by eliminating the need for separate precursor and follow-up missions. Additionally, the dual architecture possesses inherent flexibility that enables the design of adaptive, event-driven missions that are very different from traditional, largely pre-planned missions. Five key observations about the state and trends of planetary science exploration lead us to the dual architecture: increasing complexity of observations; scarcity of future mission opportunities; desire to capture transitory events; continued miniaturization of spacecraft components; and the Mars exploration cycle. Our goal in this study is to explore missions that can only happen using the dual architecture concept and find technology development needs that must be filled for those missions to compete. A survey of historical and current missions finds that opportunities for exploration are becoming less frequent, causing the flexibility and dual-nature elements of each mission to become more common. The dual exploration architecture takes these trends to their far conclusion, attempting to eliminate precursor and follow-up missions while still returning more scientific payoff. A study of the future of planetary science goals through the decadal survey reveals broad applicability of dual missions to solve mysteries that cannot be answered with a traditional mission architecture. These missions fall into three broad classes: choosing a local target from a global survey; dynamic/reactive science; and global in-situ networks. Two example missions of each class are notionally described. A deeper look at these dual architecture classes reveals four technology development needs that must be addressed for wide adoption of dual missions: passive landers; guided atmospheric probes; robust sensing packages; and small, precise orbital instruments. This study pursues a specific focus on two examples of such enabling technologies: the ChipSat and cold atom gravimetry. The ChipSat is a fully functional spacecraft-on-a-chip system that has broad versatility in the dual architecture mission space. Initial studies show that ChipSats could survive as passive impactor landers on bodies up to the size of Europa. Furthermore, COTS (Commercial Off-The-Shelf) components could provide an in-situ sensor suite that readily answers a number of pressing planetary science questions. Cold atom gravimetry uses inertial sensors based on light-pulse atom interferometry in a small form factor to map the gravity field of a body to precision equaling what would normally require two full spacecraft to achieve. The cold atom gravimeter provides an example of how advanced remote sensing capability can enable dual missions by providing greater returns in a significantly smaller package. Using the above two technologies, we study an example dual-architecture mission to both characterize and sample the subsurface oceans at Europa. The greatest scientific return in terms of detecting extraterrestrial life is in those regions where Europa’s ice crust is thin. The identification of regions with thin ice should therefore precede the selection of surface targets and dispatch of probes to those targets. This two-step process, if accomplished by separate flagship-scale missions, might take decades. As a result, a combined mission to both identify thin areas of Europa’s ice and follow up with surface observations at those regions is a good candidate for the dual-exploration architecture. This example mission consists of an orbiter spacecraft carrying a cold atom gravimeter capable of sensing or inferring the ice thickness on regional to local scales, along with a number of ChipSat probes capable of landing on the moon. The small size and weight of the ChipSats allows large numbers of them to be carried, ensuring that enough can be dropped to ensure survival of a minimum number of probes and potentially allowing for the in-situ sampling of multiple locations on the moon. The example missions and Europa case study show that amazing scientific return can obtained from dual-exploration architecture missions with a single launch by breaking the long timescales of planetary exploration and providing the flexibility to capturing transitory events and collect data across the local, regional, and global scales.

Exploration↗

Near-Zero Power MOF-Based Sensors for NO 2 Detection

Detection and capture of toxic nitrogen oxides (NO x ) is important for emissions control of exhaust gases and general public health. The ability to directly electrically detect trace (0.5–5 ppm) NO 2 by a metal–organic framework (MOF)-74-based sensor at relatively low temperatures (50 °C) is demonstrated via changes in electrical properties of M-MOF-74, M = Co, Mg, Ni. The magnitude of the change is ordered Ni > Co > Mg and explained by each variant's NO 2 adsorption capacity and specific chemical interaction. Ni-MOF-74 provides the highest sensitivity to NO 2 ; a 725× decrease in resistance at 5 ppm NO2 and detection limit <0.5 ppm, levels relevant for industry and public health. Furthermore, the Ni-MOF-74-based sensor is selective to NO 2 over N 2 , SO 2 , and air. Linking this fundamental research with future technologies, the high impedance of MOF-74 enables applications requiring a near-zero power sensor or dosimeter, with the active material drawing <15 pW for a macroscale device 35 mm 2 with 0.8 mg MOF-74. Finally, this represents a 10 4 –10 6 × decrease in power consumption compared to other MOF sensors and demonstrates the potential for MOFs as active components for long-lived, near-zero power chemical sensors in smart industrial systems and the internet of things.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Soil properties and biochemical composition of ground-dwelling bee nests in agricultural settings

Soils deliver underrecognized ecosystem services by supplying habitat for ground-dwelling pollinators, such as wild bees and other organisms, that pollinate 80% of insect-pollinated plants and play a critical role in securing resilient pollination provisions. Our objective is to identify soil properties of ground nesting bee nests in agricultural settings of western Oregon, USA. We confirmed ground nesting bee and sand wasp activity in 7 agricultural sites and 1 recreational park. Soils from 17 bee and sand wasp nests were analyzed for pH, particle size distribution, and carbon and nitrogen content. We visually confirmed that 8 of the nesting bees were sweat bees from the Halictidae family and identified a captured bee specimen as Lasioglossum (Dialictus) (Hymenoptera: Halictidae). We located 2 sites with sand wasps where specimens were identified as Cerceris and Bembix (Hymenoptera: Crabronidae). The organic matter composition of three soil samples scraped from the linings of active nests were assessed using Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS). The FTICR-MS results identified unknown lipid compounds in the nest soil samples, which we hypothesize are waterproofing lipids secreted to line cell walls. Bee nests occurred in slightly acidic, bare-ground soils with low rock/vegetation coverage, low organic carbon content (<1%), and exhibited significantly higher silt-plus-clay fractions (>75%) versus data published for bee nests in prior work. Our findings present important implications for textural controls on nest site selection in wet, cool environments and demonstrate the importance of integrating soil properties to improve our understanding of ground-dwelling organisms and associated soil habitats.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Membrane-based solvent extraction for the recovery of rare earths from phosphate mining process streams

This study reports on the capture of rare earth elements (REEs) from phosphate industry process streams, including phosphoric acid (PA) sludge and phosphogypsum (PG), using a membrane solvent extraction (MSX) process. While MSX has been proven effective for a relatively concentrated feed, its effectiveness for dilute REEs solutions remains unexplored. Investigated PA-sludge and PG particles contain total REEs concentrations of ∼1100 and ∼320 ppm, respectively. Acid leaching, implemented to dissolve the REEs, significantly dilutes the REEs concentration to ∼210 ppm for PA-sludge leachate and ∼60 ppm for PG leachate. These low concentrations, compounded by the higher levels of non-REE ions and radioactive species, uranium (U) and thorium (Th), poses challenges to the MSX process. Here, we demonstrated that N,N,N′,N′-tetraoctyl-diglycolamide (TODGA) selectively binds REEs from a >3 M nitric-acid leachate while effectively rejecting U and Th. Concentrations of light REEs in strip solution were doubled compared to the feed, while heavy REEs were preferentially extracted. Furthermore, >99% purity gypsum, free of U and Th, was precipitated during the acid leaching process, aiding separation by removing significant amounts of non-REEs species (e.g., calcium) prior to the MSX process. Molecular simulations support the experimental data, suggesting preferential separation of heavy over light REEs. Based on these results, a cost-effective integrated process including pretreatment, acid leaching, MSX, and wastewater treatment is proposed for the co-recovery of REEs, phosphoric acid, gypsum, and U. This study shows MSX as a technically and economically feasible process for the recovery of REEs from low-concentration process streams, offering advantages over conventional solvent extraction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Development, Application, and Mechanistic Interrogation of a Dual Ni Catalysis Approach to Photoredox-Based C(sp 3 )–C(sp 3 ) Cross-Coupling

The installation of alkyl substituents such as methyl groups is a crucial tactic for the synthesis and diversification of medicinal compounds with improved pharmacological profiles. However, strategies that leverage methyl radical for C(sp 3 ) methylation remain underdeveloped due to the challenge of obtaining cross-selectivity between fleeting aliphatic radicals and alkyl electrophiles. Here, we report the development, application, and interrogation of a conceptually novel mechanistic framework for C(sp 3 )–Me bond formation using two distinct Ni catalysts capable of cross-coupling sterically and electronically diverse alkyl halides (chlorides and bromides) with methyl radical generated photocatalytically from benzaldehyde dimethyl acetal. Furthermore, by modifying the alkyl substituents on the acetal coupling partner, we demonstrate cross-couplings beyond methylation to access an array of 1°–1° and 1°–2° alkyl–alkyl bonds. Experimental and computational mechanistic studies provide support for cooperativity between an in situ-generated (bpy)Ni I (X) catalyst that facilitates XAT and inner-sphere C–C bond formation and a (Tp*)Ni II (acac) cocatalyst that captures methyl radical and engages in concurrent outer-sphere S H 2 coupling.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Expediting field-effect transistor chemical sensor design with neuromorphic spiking graph neural networks

Improving the sensitive and selective detection of analytes in a variety of applications requires accelerating the rational design of field-effect transistor (FET) chemical sensors. Achieving high-performance detection relies on identifying optimal probe materials that can effectively interact with target analytes, a process traditionally driven by chemical intuition and time-consuming trial-and-error methods. To address the difficulties in probe screening for FET sensor development, this work presents a methodology that combines neuromorphic machine learning (ML) architectures, specifically a hybrid spiking graph neural network (SGNN), with an enriched dataset of physicochemical properties through semi-automated data extraction using large language models. Achieving a classification accuracy of 0.89 in predicting sensor sensitivity categories, the SGNN model outperformed traditional ML techniques by leveraging its ability to capture both global physicochemical properties and sparse topological features through a hybrid modeling framework. Next-generation sensor design was informed by the actionable insights into the connections between material properties and sensing performance offered by the SGNN framework. Through virtual screening for the detection of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) as a use case, the effectiveness of the SGNN model was further validated. Density functional theory simulations confirmed graphene as a promising active material for PFAS detection as suggested by the SGNN framework. By bridging gaps in predictive modeling and data availability, this integrated approach provides a strong foundation for accelerating advancements in FET sensor design and innovation.

Ferreira, Rodrigo Pires [Univ. of Chicago, IL (Uni↗

Windform® XT 2.0 Use as 3U CubeSat Primary Structure

CubeSats provide a platform for small-scale space research and technology demonstration at reduced complexity, cost, and development time. These advantages drove the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) to develop and launch the GPX2 3U CubeSat to explore the viability of using Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) differential GPS (dGPS) in low earth orbit. To reduce manufacturing costs and increase design flexibility, the project chose additive manufactured Windform® XT 2.0 as the primary bus material rather than traditional subtractive manufactured (milled) metal. The bus is a two-part, Selective Laser Sintered, 3D-print structure consisting of a single-piece, five-walled chassis and single-walled cover. The bus was specially designed to allow the project to accommodate the payload electronics stack as well as antennas, receivers, and deployable mechanisms. By using an additive manufactured solution, LaRC was able to design in features unrealizable through traditional milling, with a lead-time of roughly two weeks. In comparison, traditional subtractive manufacturing limits geometry options due to toolpath reach and bus construction would have required multiple components for each wall. This would have resulted in a more costly, longer lead-time article with more joints, fasteners, and complexity with a commensurate increase in overall mass. A number of lessons-learned were captured during the design, analysis, and testing of the GPX2 CubeSat covering thermal and structural analysis, vibration modeling, and geometric tolerancing. Additionally, a variety of material testing and verification were performed before and during spacecraft design and integration to assure the suitability of Windform® XT 2.0 for the launch and mission environments. This article provides the highlights of designing and testing the GPX2 bus.

CubeSat↗

Suppressed paramagnetism in amorphous Ta 2 O 5 − x oxides and its link to superconducting-qubit performance

Amorphous-oxide layers in thin-film capacitors are linked to reduced transmon-qubit T 1 coherence times. Ta -based capacitors outperform Nb -based ones, suggesting that amorphous Ta 2 O 5 − x is less lossy than Nb 2 O 5 − x . We investigate the microscopic features of these amorphous oxides using ab initio molecular dynamics and density functional theory, revealing the origins of the superior performance of Ta 2 O 5 − x . We establish that oxygen deficiency is less likely to occur in amorphous Ta 2 O 5 − x than in Nb 2 O 5 − x for 0 ≤ x ≤ 0.25 and that for a given oxygen deficiency x , metal Ta — Ta bond formation is enhanced. Such bonds, which are accommodated by structural flaws in the amorphous network, capture electrons better than in amorphous Nb 2 O 5 − x . These thermochemical differences quench or highly suppress magnetic moments in amorphous Ta 2 O 5 − x and eliminate a potential source of quasiparticles and magnetic flux noise. We also show that hyperfine couplings between Nb nuclei and local magnetic moments in Nb 2 O 5 − x can form “two-level systems” (TLSs) or “two-level fluctuators” with energy splittings of 100–1000 MHz or higher. This reveals a TLS mechanism in amorphous Nb 2 O 5 − x oxide layers that is likely inactive in Ta 2 O 5 − x . Our work provides a fundamental understanding of the materials chemistry and limitations imposed by native oxides of superconducting qubits that can be used to guide materials selection and processing.

Pritchard, P. Graham [Northwestern U.] (ORCID:0000↗

Machine Learning and IAST-Aided High-Throughput Screening of Cationic and Silica Zeolites for Alkane Capture, Storage, and Separations

We present an approach for quantitatively predicting the temperature-dependent single-component adsorption behavior of linear alkanes in silica and Na-exchanged cationic zeolites using machine learning (ML) models trained from extensive molecular simulations based on force fields with coupled cluster accuracy. A high-performing classification model was developed to distinguish between instances with negligible and non-negligible adsorption. Subsequently, two ML models were trained to predict the single-component adsorption loading and the heat of adsorption at any pressure at 300 K for any zeolite topology and silicon-to-aluminum ratio. The ML models were trained on International Zeolite Association (IZA) zeolites, and their transferability to hypothetical zeolites was successfully validated. We then expand the power of these predictions to adsorbed mixtures at arbitrary temperatures by integrating them with the Clausius–Clapeyron equation and ideal adsorbed solution theory (IAST). This approach was validated and then applied to a temperature swing adsorption separation process to demonstrate its practical utility. We demonstrate how predictions from this ML-enabled approach can allow the selection of high-performing materials that are then validated using detailed molecular simulations based on quantitatively accurate force fields.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Continental-scale integration of soil metagenomes and organic matter chemistry reveals ubiquitous microbial capacity for chemically-recalcitrant carbon decomposition

Soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition by microorganisms is a major uncertainty in predicting terrestrial carbon–atmosphere feedbacks, partly because we lack understanding of the microbial diversity involved in depolymerizing different carbon pools across environmental gradients. We address this gap using a continental-scale dataset pairing shotgun metagenomes with high-resolution SOM chemistry, assembling 0.76 Tbp of prokaryotic MAGs (828 genomes) and identifying 66,727 SOM molecules from 47 standardized U.S. soil cores selected using respiration rates from 106 soils. Integrating these datasets reveals widespread microbial potential for depolymerizing chemically-recalcitrant SOM previously considered stable. We uncover complementary metabolic specialization between genera affiliated with two abundant bacterial orders, Rhizobiales and Chthoniobacterales, and an archaeal order, Nitrososphaerales. This metabolic partitioning is consistent across soil depths and activity levels, suggesting coordinated decomposition of complex SOM through distinct but complementary biochemical strategies. The metabolic potential for depolymerization of chemically-recalcitrant compounds is supported by the abundance of these molecules across the soils, as indicated by Fourier-Transform Ion Cyclotron Resonance Mass Spectrometry (FTICR-MS), and by flux balance analysis of metabolic models. Our results show that a substantial portion of ostensibly stable SOM remains vulnerable to microbial decomposition, a mechanism not captured in current Earth System Models.

Song, Young C. [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗

Application of artificial intelligence methods in the international roughness index prediction of rigid and composite pavements: a systematic review

The International Roughness Index (IRI) is a widely adopted metric for quantifying pavement roughness, directly influencing vehicle safety, ride comfort, and overall roadway performance. In recent years, the use of Machine Learning (ML) models for IRI prediction has gained momentum, with the goal of improving the allocation of maintenance and rehabilitation resources by enabling accurate assessments of pavement conditions. Most prior reviews, however, have concentrated on flexible pavements, leaving a notable gap regarding rigid and composite pavements. To address this gap, the present study conducts a systematic review of Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods applied to IRI prediction for rigid and composite pavements. Literature published between 2004 and 2025 is synthesized to highlight prevailing trends, methodological contributions, and directions for future research. Particular attention is given to the types of models employed, the datasets used for training and validation, and the role of input variables and data-processing strategies. Across the included studies, ensemble learning methods (especially gradient boosting variants such as XGBoost), artificial neural networks, and hybrid architectures frequently achieved high predictive skill, with several models reporting test-set coefficients of determination approaching 0.9–0.96, indicating strong potential for capturing the influence of traffic, pavement structure, and climatic factors. Since these results are obtained from heterogeneous datasets and evaluation protocols, they are interpreted qualitatively rather than as strict cross-study rankings. Analysis of input variables revealed that pavement age and initial IRI were included in 91% (21 of 23) and 78% (18 of 23) of studies, respectively. Climatic variables such as the freezing index appeared in 57% (13 of 23), while traffic-related factors were considered in 65% (15 of 23). The findings underscore the importance of standardized, high-quality datasets, such as those from the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) program, along with data consistency, model interpretability, computational efficiency, and replicability in enhancing IRI prediction. Future research should focus on incorporating input variable selection techniques to identify the most influential predictors, thereby improving accuracy and robustness. Integrating these approaches with advanced non-linear data-driven models, coupled with robust hyperparameter optimization, holds considerable promise for strengthening the reliability of IRI prediction and supporting resilient pavement management strategies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Assurance Equations: A Cost and Criticality Model for Optimizing Quality Assurance Surveillance

The cost of quality vs cost of failure correction has been a long-running topic of discussion within the Aerospace community. It leads directly to concepts of “risk tolerance”, and risk-based decision-making. It would be valuable if there was a way to compute the optimal investment in customer-executed quality assurance activities using defect significance with respect to performance objectives, the activities’ defect detection effectiveness, and the cost-penalty for late discovery of impactful defects. This optimization is particularly of interest to projects whose budget constraints significantly limit their risk management options.The cost to fix defects (i.e., failure correction) escalates as the project matures. There have been studies attempting to determine the relative cost of fixing defects discovered during various phases of a project life cycle with important implications, all of which suggest growth factors are large. The commonly referred to 1:10:100 rule represents a cost multiplier for repair/rework across the Design to Fab to Test hardware development phases. Cost premiums for QA activities also accumulate when they are treated as mandatory (due to schedule drag) or are performed later than their assigned phase.This paper describes the modeling of development phase -dependencies in the conduct of typical customer-executed quality assurance activities. Our initial modeling encompasses:• Distinct phases of the production lifecycle• Multiple kinds of Defects, each with some a-priori likelihood of being present• Each defect’s impact on performance Objectives for a type of hardware• The cost and efficacy of assurance techniques at detecting such Defects• The costs of fixing those Defects detected in a given phase of the production lifecycleThe model captures assurance activities’ abilities to Detect defects. Upon detection it is assumed that the Defect is immediately fixed. Defects that “escape” detection by some activity may thereafter be detected by a later activity, but by then the cost of fixing the Defect may have escalated. Defects are related to the performance Objectives they would detract from, were those Defects to remain present in the operating system.We have constructed and are exploring, a model that relates the importance of hardware system elements to mission objectives, the impact of types of Defects on those hardware types, the cost of customer-executed assurance activities (i.e., supplier controls) and their effectiveness towards reducing an impactful quality escape, and the cost of Defect correction across production phase. We describe the approach taken to select the key model aspects, why they are relevant to our NASA mission, and our efforts to populate it with relevant and contemporary data. We use a notional example to illustrate model design and function.

Plante, Jeannette↗

Can fractal dimensions objectivize gastropod shell morphometrics? A case study from Lake Lugu (SW China)

1. Morphometrics are fundamental for the analysis of size and shape in fossils, particularly because soft parts or DNA are rarely preserved and hard parts such as shells are commonly the only source of information. Geometric morphometrics, that is, landmark analysis, is well established for the description of shape but it exhibits a couple of shortcomings resulting from subjective choices during landmarking (number and position of landmarks) and from difficulties in resolving shape at the level of micro-sculpture. 2. With the aid of high-resolution 3D scanning technology and analyses of fractal dimensions, we test whether such shortcomings of linear and landmark morphometrics can be overcome. As a model group, we selected a clade of modern viviparid gastropods from Lake Lugu, with shells that show a high degree of sculptural variation. Linear and landmark analyses were applied to the same shells in order to establish the fractal dimensions. 3. The genetic diversity of the gastropod clade was assessed. The genetic results suggest that the gastropod clade represents a single species. The results of all morphometric methods applied are in line with the genetic results, which is that no specific morphotype could be delimited. Apart from this overall agreement, landmark and fractal dimension analyses do not correspond to each other but represent data sets with different information. Generally, the fractal dimension values quantify the roughness of the shell surface, the resolution of the 3D scans determining the level. In our approach, we captured the micro-sculpture but not the first-order sculptural elements, which explains that fractal dimension and landmark data are not in phase. 4. We can show that analyzing fractal dimensions of gastropod shells opens a window to more detailed information that can be considered in evolutionary and ecological contexts. We propose that using low-resolution 3D scans may successfully substitute landmark analyses because it overcomes the subjective landmarking. Analyses of 3D scans with higher resolution than used in this study will provide surface roughness information at the mineralogical level. We suggest that fractal dimension analyses of a combination of differently resolved 3D models will significantly improve the quality of shell morphometrics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗