Results for “Resource Assessments” — Page 81

NASA NTRS2016

Capability for Integrated Systems Risk-Reduction Analysis

NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) is working to increase the likelihoods of human health and performance success during long-duration missions, and subsequent crew long-term health. To achieve these goals, there is a need to develop an integrated understanding of how the complex human physiological-socio-technical mission system behaves in spaceflight. This understanding will allow HRP to provide cross-disciplinary spaceflight countermeasures while minimizing resources such as mass, power, and volume. This understanding will also allow development of tools to assess the state of and enhance the resilience of individual crewmembers, teams, and the integrated mission system. We will discuss a set of risk-reduction questions that has been identified to guide the systems approach necessary to meet these needs. In addition, a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space, called the Contributing Factor Map (CFM), is being applied as the backbone for incorporating information addressing these questions from sources throughout HRP. Using the common language of the CFM, information from sources such as the Human System Risk Board summaries, Integrated Research Plan, and HRP-funded publications has been combined and visualized in ways that allow insight into cross-disciplinary interconnections in a systematic, standardized fashion. We will show examples of these visualizations. We will also discuss applications of the resulting analysis capability that can inform science portfolio decisions, such as areas in which cross-disciplinary solicitations or countermeasure development will potentially be fruitful.

Mindock, J.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Wilson Corners SWMU 001 2019-2020 Annual Long-Term Monitoring Report Kennedy Space Center, Florida

This report presents a summary of the long-term monitoring (LTM) activities that occurred in 2019 and 2020 at Wilson Corners, Solid Waste Management Unit 001, at the John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida. The site is monitored under KSC’s Resource Conservation and Recovery Act Corrective Action Program. Adaptive site management is being utilized through ongoing assessment, design, and interim measures. This approach also meets the requirements of Chapter 62-780, Florida Administrative Code. The goal of LTM at this site is threefold: to determine groundwater flow characteristics, monitor the downgradient concentration trends, and monitor select locations internal to the groundwater plume. Every 5 years, upgradient and side-gradient monitoring wells are sampled to verify delineation. The last time this was performed was in 2015. Sampling of these wells in 2020 was replaced with the direct push technology investigations in October 2020 and April 2021. The activities presented in this report include three field events: (1) December 2019 -groundwater gauging of 38 monitoring wells and sampling of 36 monitoring wells; (2) May 2020 - groundwater sampling of 7 monitoring wells; and (3) December 2020 - groundwater gauging of 49 monitoring wells and sampling of 43 monitoring wells. During the December 2019 and May 2020 events, monitoring wells were sampled using passive diffusion bags and were analyzed for a “full list” of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), including Freon 113. During the December 2020 event, the low flow sampling method was used, and samples were analyzed for a “select list” of VOCs, including Freon 113. The following conclusions can be made based on the 2019 and 2020 LTM results: •In December 2019 and December 2020, groundwater flow for the site was generally to the west with the individual zones only varying by occasional northerly and southerly components. This is generally consistent with historical observations at the site. •The GCTL plume continues to extend both horizontally and vertically beyond our current monitoring well network. •The vertical extent of VOCs was historically generally delineated by monitoring wells screened greater than 48 feet bls. The results from the two vertical extent monitoring wells WILC-MW0078 and WILC-MW0130 that were sampled during the 2019 and 2020 LTM indicate that groundwater VOC concentrations in both wells were greater than the GCTL. •Freon 113 was not detected above GCTLs during the 2019 and 2020 LTM events. Based on groundwater sampling activities performed during this reporting period, including recent DPT groundwater sampling conducted for the implementation of an air sparge system, the following recommendations are provided: •Install 10 new monitoring wells, which will be sampled along with 49 existing monitoring wells, to assist with delineation of the low concentration plume. The wells are listed inTable 4-1, and the proposed locations are presented on Figures4 -1 through 4-5. (Figures 4-1, 4-2, 4-3, and 4-5 also show updated plumes and proposed performance monitoring well locations. This information will be discussed and presented under a separate cover.) •Modify the annual LTM sampling plan as presented inTable 4-1. •Sampling for future events at the site will be conducted using low flow pumping methods. The next annual LTM sampling event is currently planned for December 2021. Please note the 10 new monitoring wells will not be installed before this event but will be installed as part of the upcoming IM construction and will be sampled during baseline sampling, along with the 49 existing monitoring wells. Following this sampling event, it is recommended that the Annual LTM be combined with the performance monitoring under the IM implementation, and LTM be temporarily discontinued. Objectives of the 2021 LTM are to: (i) evaluate groundwater gradient and flow direction by collecting depth to water measurements from LTM wells; (ii) continue monitoring the peripheral VOC trends in the northern, southern, and western portions of the site by monitoring existing wells and installing and monitoring new wells as recommended; and (iii) monitor select internal plume wells.

Jennifer Lynn Joyal↗

NASA NTRS2024

Design of a Family of Mars Chemical Transportation Elements

NASA’s Mars Architecture Team (MAT) has recently developed a collection of concepts to assess the capabilities and constraints presented by architectures incorporating large-scale Mars In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) propellant production. The focus of this manuscript is on the concept design of chemical propellant-based transportation systems including a dual role lander/ascent vehicle and an in-space transporter. Mission performance analyses performed during a recent design analysis cycle derived the 300,000 kg propellant production capacity utilized for preliminary concept designs of enabling surface ISRU systems, power systems, fluid handling systems, and their concept of operation, detailed in companion papers.

Mars↗

NASA NTRS2024

Design of a Family of Mars Chemical Transportation Elements

NASA’s Mars Architecture Team (MAT) has recently developed a collection of concepts to assess the capabilities and constraints presented by architectures incorporating large-scale Mars In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) propellant production. The focus of this manuscript is on the concept design of chemical propellant-based transportation systems including a dual role lander/ascent vehicle and an in-space transporter. Mission performance analyses performed during a recent design analysis cycle derived the 300,000 kg propellant production capacity utilized for preliminary concept designs of enabling surface ISRU systems, power systems, fluid handling systems, and their concept of operation, detailed in companion papers.

Mars↗

DOE OSTI2023

Towards a Circular Economy for PET Bottles in the US

The United States generates the most plastic waste of any country. Along with that GHG emissions from the global plastic economy are expected to increase to 15% of the global carbon budget by 2050. It is imperative that plastic recycling is made a reality to reduce both plastic pollution in the environment and GHG emissions. A portfolio of end-of-life strategies must be implemented to minimize environmental impacts and retain valuable plastic material, but it is challenging to compare options that generate products with different utility and lifetime. Plastic use reduction, reuse and recycling are thus increasingly important, but making informed policy and research decisions within this space can be challenging given the diverse range of available solutions. The novel analysis framework, Plastic Parallel Pathways Platform (4P) has been equipped with consequential life cycle assessment, techno-economic analysis, and a plastic circularity indicator to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, circularity, and cost of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) down-cycling to lower-quality resin, closed-loop recycling to food-grade PET bottles, up-cycling to fiber-reinforced plastic (FRP), and conversion to non-plastic products (electricity, oil) on a United States economy-wide basis. Integrating system dynamics into this robust plastics model that already incorporates techno-economics, circularity, and environmental impacts will enable identification of key bottlenecks between manufacturers, waste sorters, and reclaimers that currently prevent rapid decarbonization of the plastics economy. System dynamics (SD) explore the evolution of activities and technologies based on changed macro parameters such as plastic demand and supply, market shifts, and cross-sectoral interactions. This project particularly aims to explore the interplay between, waste collection, plastic waste sorting, recycling, and manufacturing, as well as the effect of plastic bale quality and plastic reuse initiatives on the surrounding process stages. This functionality will facilitate combinatory analysis in which a portfolio of end-of-life pathways are assessed simultaneously, with the exact makeup of that portfolio affected by parameters such as technology scales, resource constraints, and waste mitigation efforts. Integrating SD with the 4P framework enables analyzing the effect of increased revenue and reinvestment into improving process efficiencies, sorting and collection quantities. Through that, market effects of increased recycled resin availability can be studied for the plastics systems model for the US. The results will help identify technical or economic bottlenecks that currently limit efforts to decarbonize the U.S. plastics economy.

circular economy↗

DOE OSTI2024

Towards a Circular Economy for PET Bottles in the U.S. - 4P Model

The United States generates the most plastic waste of any country. Along with that GHG emissions from the global plastic economy are expected to increase to 15% of the global carbon budget by 2050. It is imperative that plastic recycling is made a reality to reduce both plastic pollution in the environment and GHG emissions. A portfolio of end-of-life strategies must be implemented to minimize environmental impacts and retain valuable plastic material, but it is challenging to compare options that generate products with different utility and lifetime. Plastic use reduction, reuse and recycling are thus increasingly important, but making informed policy and research decisions within this space can be challenging given the diverse range of available solutions. The novel analysis framework, Plastic Parallel Pathways Platform (4P) has been equipped with consequential life cycle assessment, techno-economic analysis, and a plastic circularity indicator to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, circularity, and cost of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) down-cycling to lower-quality resin, closed-loop recycling to food-grade PET bottles, up-cycling to fiber-reinforced plastic (FRP), and conversion to non-plastic products (electricity, oil) on a United States economy-wide basis. Integrating system dynamics into this robust plastics model that already incorporates techno-economics, circularity, and environmental impacts will enable identification of key bottlenecks between manufacturers, waste sorters, and reclaimers that currently prevent rapid decarbonization of the plastics economy. System dynamics (SD) explore the evolution of activities and technologies based on changed macro parameters such as plastic demand and supply, market shifts, and cross-sectoral interactions. This project particularly aims to explore the interplay between, waste collection, plastic waste sorting, recycling, and manufacturing, as well as the effect of plastic bale quality and plastic reuse initiatives on the surrounding process stages. This functionality will facilitate combinatory analysis in which a portfolio of end-of-life pathways are assessed simultaneously, with the exact makeup of that portfolio affected by parameters such as technology scales, resource constraints, and waste mitigation efforts. Integrating SD with the 4P framework enables analyzing the effect of increased revenue and reinvestment into improving process efficiencies, sorting and collection quantities. Through that, market effects of increased recycled resin availability can be studied for the plastics systems model for the US. The results will help identify technical or economic bottlenecks that currently limit efforts to decarbonize the U.S. plastics economy.

carbon↗

DOE OSTI2024

Towards a Circular Economy for PET Bottles in the U.S. - 4P Framework

The United States generates the most plastic waste of any country. Along with that GHG emissions from the global plastic economy are expected to increase to 15% of the global carbon budget by 2050. It is imperative that plastic recycling is made a reality to reduce both plastic pollution in the environment and GHG emissions. A portfolio of end-of-life strategies must be implemented to minimize environmental impacts and retain valuable plastic material, but it is challenging to compare options that generate products with different utility and lifetime. Plastic use reduction, reuse and recycling are thus increasingly important, but making informed policy and research decisions within this space can be challenging given the diverse range of available solutions. The novel analysis framework, Plastic Parallel Pathways Platform (4P) has been equipped with consequential life cycle assessment, techno-economic analysis, and a plastic circularity indicator to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, circularity, and cost of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) down-cycling to lower-quality resin, closed-loop recycling to food-grade PET bottles, up-cycling to fiber-reinforced plastic (FRP), and conversion to non-plastic products (electricity, oil) on a United States economy-wide basis. Integrating system dynamics into this robust plastics model that already incorporates techno-economics, circularity, and environmental impacts will enable identification of key bottlenecks between manufacturers, waste sorters, and reclaimers that currently prevent rapid decarbonization of the plastics economy. System dynamics (SD) explore the evolution of activities and technologies based on changed macro parameters such as plastic demand and supply, market shifts, and cross-sectoral interactions. This project particularly aims to explore the interplay between, waste collection, plastic waste sorting, recycling, and manufacturing, as well as the effect of plastic bale quality and plastic reuse initiatives on the surrounding process stages. This functionality will facilitate combinatory analysis in which a portfolio of end-of-life pathways are assessed simultaneously, with the exact makeup of that portfolio affected by parameters such as technology scales, resource constraints, and waste mitigation efforts. Integrating SD with the 4P framework enables analyzing the effect of increased revenue and reinvestment into improving process efficiencies, sorting and collection quantities. Through that, market effects of increased recycled resin availability can be studied for the plastics systems model for the US. The results will help identify technical or economic bottlenecks that currently limit efforts to decarbonize the U.S. plastics economy.

circular economy↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Circularity Assessment for Silicon Solar Panels Based on Dynamic Material Flow Analysis

This paper examines the impacts of design, operational, and end-of-life (EOL) waste pathways’ parameters on material circularity in silicon solar photovoltaic (PV) modules. Dynamic material flow analysis (DMFA) quantifies time-series material flows through systems’ life cycle stages to identify hotspots of waste generation, estimate resource needs in the future, and guide sustainable material management. We introduce a DMFA framework based on U.S. electricity demand for the period 2000-2100 to assess stocks and flows of bulk PV materials (i.e., solar glass and aluminum frames). We apply the model to a range of scenarios to understand how material demands depend on selected PV-related parameters, different material circularity strategies, and recent module design trends (e.g., bifacials, large-format-high power modules). Our results enable advanced planning for future materials needs and provide insight into potential opportunities to minimize material waste.

circular economy↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Technical and Economic Assessment of LWR Flexible Operation for Generation and Demand Balancing to Optimize Plant Revenue

With increased penetration of subsidized variable renewable energy (VRE) resources and competition from low natural gas prices, existing light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs) are struggling to remain economically competitive. This work examines the potential economic competitiveness of various thermal energy storage (TES) technologies when coupled directly or indirectly with a NPP. To highlight their relative economic competitiveness, we contrast several energy storage solutions in stochastic dispatch optimization. We leverage data from recent work analyzing a range of TES technologies with varying capital costs, performance, and technology readiness level (TRL) to establish our case. We explore inserting these technologies into an electricity market with existing nuclear generation and large projected variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration. Although these technologies' projected capital costs may make them unlikely candidates in their current state, this analysis demonstrates a high-fidelity techno-economic analysis of energy storage. Furthermore, as the projected cost of energy storage technologies evolves, this analysis sets a precedent for similar future investigations. One region with projected trends that may be unfavorable for existing nuclear capacity is the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) market. New York state’s baseload generation has been historically provided by fossil-fired and nuclear assets. However, amid economic pressures from subsidized VREs and low natural gas prices, the state has recently deactivated Indian Point nuclear power plant units 2 and 3. Furthermore, the state plans to meet its zero-emission generation target by 2040 by replacing fossil-fired capacity with significant investments in VRE resources like wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage. Increased intermittent resource penetration lowers the baseload power requirement, adding further economic pressure to the state’s three remaining NPPs still in operation. With three NPPs still in operation in New York, this work analyzes potential economic benefits to NPPs on the New York grid when directly or indirectly coupled with various TES technologies. This work requires two modeling steps to analyze the potential economic benefits of various system configurations of the TES directly or indirectly coupled with nuclear. First, this analysis leverages capacity expansion modeling by experts at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). Using their deterministic capacity expansion model, U.S. Regional Economy, Greenhouse Gas, and Energy (US-REGEN), EPRI analysts evaluated the capacity and generation evolution of the New York state energy market under four projection scenarios. These four projection scenarios were developed to represent the potential evolution of the capacity and generation in NYISO from 2015 to 2050 under various economic, technology, and policy constraints. The results from these capacity expansion models are then used as boundary conditions in the second modeling step. The second modeling step uses the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) for a set of stochastic techno-economic analyses (STEAs) to investigate the potential increase in the economic viability of various configurations of the TES. With no current capacity expansion capabilities, HERON takes the data generated from US-REGEN for 2050 to generate synthetic load, solar, and wind data. Then HERON economically optimizes the capacity and dispatch of the various TES configurations. The potential economic benefit is the differential net present value (NPV) of the TES configurations from the no-TES baseline. As a stochastic techno-economic analysis package, HERON introduces uncertainty into the economic metrics, while US-REGEN trades resolution for reduced computational complexity. Using HERON also allows the modeling of direct thermal coupling, a feature not common in capacity and dispatch models. As expected, with high capital costs, the costs of introducing energy storage for all the technologies considered outweighed the potential economic benefit of this strategy for flexible plant operation. The benefit of this analysis is primarily in demonstrating a workflow that examines innovative solutions to increase NPP revenue via TES coupling. HERON’s stochastic capacity and dispatch optimization process used in this work has proven an effective tool in observing and evaluating the impact of introducing storage technologies in a grid energy system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Offshore reanalysis wind speed assessment across the wind turbine rotor layer off the United States Pacific coast

Abstract. The California Pacific coast is characterized by considerable wind resource and areas of dense population, propelling interest in offshore wind energy as the United States moves toward a sustainable and decarbonized energy future. Reanalysis models continue to serve the wind energy community in a multitude of ways, and the need for validation in locations where observations have been historically limited, such as offshore environments, is strong. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) owns two lidar buoys that collect wind speed observations across the wind turbine rotor layer along with meteorological and oceanographic data near the surface to characterize the wind resource. Lidar buoy data collected from recent deployments off the northern California coast near Humboldt County and the central California coast near Morro Bay allow for validation of commonly used reanalysis products. In this article, wind speeds from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2), the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), and the analysis system of the Rapid Refresh (RAP) are validated at heights within the wind turbine rotor layer ranging from 50 to 100 m. The validation results offer guidance on the performance and uncertainty associated with utilizing reanalyses for offshore wind resource characterization, providing the offshore wind energy community with information on the conditions that lead to reanalysis error. At both California coast locations, the reanalyses tend to underestimate the observed rotor-level wind resource. Occasions of large reanalysis error occur in conjunction with stable atmospheric conditions, wind speeds associated with peak turbine power production (> 10 m s−1), and mischaracterization of the diurnal wind speed cycle in summer months.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Assessing the Optimality of LinDist3Flow for Optimal Tap Selection of Step Voltage Regulators in Unbalanced Distribution Networks: Preprint

The adoption of distributed energy resources such as photovoltaics (PVs) has increased dramatically during the previous decade. The increased penetration of PVs into distribution networks (DNs) can cause voltage fluctuations that have to be mitigated. One of the key utility assets employed to this end are step-voltage regulators (SVRs). It is desirable to include tap selection of SVRs in optimal power flow (OPF) routines, a task that turns out to be challenging because the resultant OPF problem is nonconvex with added complexities stemming from accurate SVR modeling. While several convex relaxations based on semi-definite programming (SDP) have been presented in the literature for optimal tap selection, SDP based schemes do not scale well and are challenging to implement in large-scale planning or operational frameworks. This paper deals with the optimal tap selection (OPTS) problem for wye-connected SVRs using linear approximations of power flow equations. Specifically, the LinDist3Flow model is adopted and the effective SVR ratio is assumed to be continuous–enabling the formulation of a problem called LinDist3Flow-OPTS, which amounts to a linear program. The scalability and optimality gap of LinDist3Flow-OPTS are evaluated with respect to existing SDP-based and nonlinear programming techniques for optimal tap selection in three standard feeders, namely, the IEEE 13-bus, 123-bus, and 8500-node DNs. For all DNs considered, LinDist3Flow-OPTS achieves an optimality gap of approximately 1% or less while significantly lowering the computational burden.

linear approximations↗

DOE OSTI2022

A techno-economic assessment framework for hydrogen energy storage toward multiple energy delivery pathways and grid services

Hydrogen energy storage (HES) transforms and stores electric energy from the grid into hydrogen, and supplements other energy storage and demand response resources in addressing challenges in renewable-intensive power systems. Understanding how to optimally utilize an HES system to maximize its economic benefits from stacked value streams is highly important to its development and deployment. Here, in this paper, we present a techno-economic assessment framework for an HES system considering three common energy delivery pathways and multiple grid and end-user services. Models are developed to capture the operational capability, flexibility, and constraints associated with hydrogen production, compression, storage, and utilization as well as different grid services in an economic assessment. To define the technically achievable benefits, an optimal dispatch formulation is proposed to maximize the economic benefits over a representative year with an hourly time step considering the trade-offs among different value streams. Representative case studies are designed and carried out to show how system configuration, energy delivery pathways, and grid services may affect economic benefits. It was found that value streams from bundling grid services account for up to 76% of the total benefits and are critical for an HES project to be financially viable.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Area V: Waste Management and Subsurface Science (FY21-23 Final Report)

The objective of the Waste Management and Subsurface Science Topic Area V project is to evaluate the feasibility and safety of an intermediate-depth borehole for disposal of Israel Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC) nuclear waste. The IAEC nuclear waste is currently stored in above ground and/or in near-surface facilities that provide short-term radiological worker safety but do not provide long-term, full security and safeguards protection for the nuclear material. Disposal of the IAEC nuclear waste several hundred meters below the surface in a sealed borehole would provide long-term security and safeguards due to its depth underground, as well as long-term radiological safety, due to its isolation in a stable geological formation. This project supports the nuclear security and safeguards initiatives of the Science and Technology Working Group of the NNSA/IAEC Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) and addresses the Topic Area V objective and associated goals. The goals for Topic Area V are: (1) Assess the suitability of the vadose zone in the Yamin Plain of the northern Negev Desert, Israel as a host location for intermediate-depth borehole disposal of radioactive waste, (2) Define and refine the necessary characterization needs to better understand the regional climate, structure, and stratigraphy, geomechanics, geochemistry, hydrogeology, and seismicity of the stratigraphic sequence from the surface to the water table in the vicinity of the proposed host location for the disposal borehole(s), and (3) Develop a preliminary plan and schedule, including necessary resources and costs, for a borehole disposal concept and robust and transparent pre-closure and post-closure safety assessments. The safety assessments will require iteration with process level models at both site and regional scales. Upon completion, the information collected by this effort will allow the IAEC to make decisions regarding the viability and applicability of an intermediate depth (<500m) borehole for disposal in the vadose zone of the Yamin Plain. This FY21-23 final report is provided in lieu of a workshop report that was originally planned for delivery in January, 2024. Due to the conflict in Israel and associated delays, the workshop has been delayed to April 2024. The workshop will be held at LLNL but offsite and will switch to hybrid if travel restrictions remain in place. The associated workshop report will be provided as part of a new FY24-26 LCP.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS2013

Evaluating Downscaling Methods for Seasonal Climate Forecasts over East Africa

The U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecasting system is providing hindcast and real-time data streams to be used in assessing and improving seasonal predictive capacity. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of NMME forecasts specifically for use in impact modeling within hub regions including East Africa, the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region and Mesoamerica. One of the participating models in NMME is the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5). This work will present an intercomparison of downscaling methods using the GEOS5 seasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation over East Africa. The current seasonal forecasting system provides monthly averaged forecast anomalies. These anomalies must be spatially downscaled and temporally disaggregated for use in application modeling (e.g. hydrology, agriculture). There are several available downscaling methodologies that can be implemented to accomplish this goal. Selected methods include both a non-homogenous hidden Markov model and an analogue based approach. A particular emphasis will be placed on quantifying the ability of different methods to capture the intermittency of precipitation within both the short and long rain seasons. Further, the ability to capture spatial covariances will be assessed. Both probabilistic and deterministic skill measures will be evaluated over the hindcast period.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Evaluating Downscaling Methods for Seasonal Climate Forecasts over East Africa

The U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecasting system is providing hindcast and real-time data streams to be used in assessing and improving seasonal predictive capacity. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of NMME forecasts specifically for use in impact modeling within hub regions including East Africa, the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region and Mesoamerica. One of the participating models in NMME is the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5). This work will present an intercomparison of downscaling methods using the GEOS5 seasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation over East Africa. The current seasonal forecasting system provides monthly averaged forecast anomalies. These anomalies must be spatially downscaled and temporally disaggregated for use in application modeling (e.g. hydrology, agriculture). There are several available downscaling methodologies that can be implemented to accomplish this goal. Selected methods include both a non-homogenous hidden Markov model and an analogue based approach. A particular emphasis will be placed on quantifying the ability of different methods to capture the intermittency of precipitation within both the short and long rain seasons. Further, the ability to capture spatial covariances will be assessed. Both probabilistic and deterministic skill measures will be evaluated over the hindcast period

Roberts, J. Brent↗

DOE OSTI2023

Supply Chain Sustainability Analysis of Renewable Hydrocarbon Fuels via Hydrothermal Liquefaction, Combined Algal Processing, and Biochemical Conversion: Update of the 2022 State-of-Technology Cases

The Department of Energy's (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) aims to develop and deploy technologies to transform renewable biomass resources into commercially viable, high-performance biofuels, bioproducts, and biopower through public and private partnerships. BETO and its national laboratory teams conduct in-depth techno-economic assessments (TEA) of biomass feedstock supply and logistics and conversion technologies to produce biofuels. There are two general types of TEAs: A design case outlines a target case (future projection) for a particular biofuel pathway. It informs R&D priorities by identifying areas in need of improvement, tracks sustainability impact of R&D, and provides goals and benchmarks against which technology progress is assessed. A state of technology (SOT) analysis assesses progress within and across relevant technology areas based on actual results at current experimental scales relative to technical targets and cost goals from design cases, and includes technical, economic, and environmental criteria as available. In addition to developing a TEA for a pathway of interest, BETO also performs a supply chain sustainability analysis (SCSA). The SCSA takes the life-cycle analysis approach that BETO has been supporting for over 20 years. It enables BETO to identify energy consumption, environmental, and sustainability issues that may be associated with biofuel production. Approaches to mitigating these issues can then be developed. Additionally, the SCSA allows for comparison of energy and environmental impacts across biofuel pathways in BETO's research and development portfolio. This technical report describes the SCSAs for the production of renewable hydrocarbon transportation fuels via a range of conversion technologies in the 2022 SOTs: (1) renewable hydrocarbon fuels via hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of wet sludge from a wastewater treatment plant; (2) renewable hydrocarbon fuels via biochemical conversion of herbaceous lignocellulosic biomass; (3) renewable hydrocarbon fuels via HTL of an algae/woody biomass blend; and (4) renewable hydrocarbon fuels via combined algae processing (CAP).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS1993

The Space Station Freedom Reliability and Maintainability Assessment Tool

The Reliability and Maintainability Assessment Tool is a stochastic, event-oriented simulation model that has been developed to analyze the functional reliability, availability, and maintainability characteristics of the Space Station Freedom. This tool simulates failures and performs corrective and preventive maintenance tasks, utilizing user-specified maintenance resources, including crewmembers and/or robotics, and accommodates the growth of the station. The model dynamically interfaces with minimal cut sets derived from reliability block diagrams to assess functional status and to determine queuing priorities.

Blumentritt, Will↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Approach to Assessing Capture System Performance Margin in Mars Sample Return's Capture, Containment, and Return System

In the aerospace industry, there are standard design principles and/or rule-of-thumb targets that define healthy levels of margins required at each developmental milestone for traditional metrics, such as mass, thermal, and power margins. When the technical resource is “non-traditional,” in the sense that guiding margin principles are non-existent, systems engineering processes are required to internally generate performance targets and methodologies to assess the system against the derived targets. This paper presents a probabilistic approach for assessing complex time-critical operations which applies global sensitivity analyses to identify input parameters that should drive the design. This approach is used to design a critical payload required for the Mars Sample Return campaign aiming at bringing back rock and atmospheric samples from Mars.

Performance Margins↗