Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Reliability analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,459 records · Page 81

Task 1 Report - Assessment of Data Availability to Inform Energy Planning Analyses: Energy Alternatives Study for the Lao People's Democratic Republic: Smart Infrastructure for the Mekong Program

In an effort to address concerns such as energy security, reliability, affordability, and other objectives, the Government of the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) is seeking to advance its expertise and experience in energy system analysis and planning to explore energy alternatives. Assessing the potential and alternatives for deploying energy technology options is often an early step - and, in most cases, an ongoing process - in planning for the development of the energy sector as a whole. Reliable and robust data are crucial to conducting these types of planning-related analyses in a transparent manner that builds confidence among power sector stakeholders and encourages investment in future energy project development and infrastructure opportunities. This report represents the first output of the Energy Alternatives Study for the Lao PDR (Energy Alternatives Study), a collaboration between Ministry of Energy and Mines and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under the auspices of the Smart Infrastructure for the Mekong (SIM) program. The Energy Alternatives Study includes five tasks that build upon each other to meet the goal of the project. The report summarizes the availability, quality, and accessibility of data that serve as key inputs to energy planning activities for the power sector. The purpose of this data assessment is two-fold: 1. To facilitate the informed use of existing data by highlighting applications for these data as they relate to priority energy planning analyses; and 2. To inform future investments in energy data collection and management by identifying significant data gaps and providing guidance on how to fill these gaps.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Analysis and Experiment of Management Sciences Inc.'s Arc Fault Protection Connectors

The photovoltaics industry is in dire need of a cheap, robust, reliable arc fault detector that is sensitive enough to detect arc faults before they can develop into a fire while robust enough to noise to limit unwanted tripping. Management Sciences has developed an arc fault detector that is housed in a standard PV connector, which will disconnect the PV array when it detects the surge current from an arc fault. Sandia National Labs, an industry leader in the detection, characterization, and mitigation of arc faults in PV arrays, will work with Management Sciences to characterize, demonstrate, and develop their arc fault detection/connector technology.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Operation and Maintenance of PV Systems: Data Science, Analysis, and Standards

This effort improves the effectiveness and reduce uncertainty in O&M cost through four primary objectives/tasks: 1) institutionalize standards for reliability and availability reporting for large PV power plants; 2) bridge systemic O&M knowledge gaps around important topics affecting O&M; 3) characterize systemic failure modes and patterns and accelerate O&M experiential learning cycles using field data; and 4) establish a baseline understanding of UPVS O&M cost drivers. Key results of this effort include publication of IEC standards, published topical papers on O&M topics, training, and characterize field data for climate- and service-related patterns (additional details below). Integrating these results serves to reduce performance risk and facilitate improvement in the way solar projects are operated and maintained. Results are well received and two publications are among the most successful SETO publications at NREL ("Model of Operation and Maintenance Costs for Photovoltaic Systems with over 40,000 downloads and "Best Practices in Operation and Maintenance of PV Systems, 3rd Ed." with over 90,000 downloads).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

System Analysis of an Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) - Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) Hybrid Cycle

The variability of renewable energy sources poses challenges for reliable grid operation. Conventional thermal power sources, though reliable, often lack operational flexibility. Hybrid energy systems that integrate Solid Oxide Fuel cells (SOFC) with Internal Combustion Engines (ICE) offer a promising solution by achieving relatively higher efficiency and grid-following capability. This study investigates performance of a 100-kW pressurized SOFC-ICE hybrid cycle. In this configuration, unutilized SOFC fuel is used to drive the engine, with a turbocharger providing air supply and an external reformer generating syngas. System components were numerically modeled using MATLAB/SIMULINK for the SOFC and reformer, and EBSILON® for the ICE and balance of plant. Parametric studies varied fuel utilization (70-90%), reformer temperature (600 – 1000K), anode off-gas recirculation (0 – 70%), and current density (0.2 – 0.55 A/cm2). Results show that the SOFC and ICE operate as thermally independent topping and bottoming cycles, achieving peak efficiency of 62% under optimized conditions.

hybrid↗

Optimal Complementarity Analysis of Potential Floating Solar Co-Located With Existing Hydropower Assets Across the Contiguous United States

The U.S. is expected to double its rate of renewable capacity from 2024 to 2030. However, the stochastic nature of renewable energy poses challenges to the operation and reliability of our power grid. The combined generation from renewable energy sources, with dispatchable sources (such as hydropower) operating as a hybrid energy plant, could mitigate this variability. In this paper, the complementarity analysis of selected U.S. reservoirs with existing hydropower assets (EHAs) and potential floating photovoltaics (FPVs) is conducted for the continuous U.S. (CONUS). The optimal FPV capacity for each site is determined by minimizing the variability of the combined output, while adhering to the FPV potential. Our results indicate that over 50% of the analyzed reservoirs achieve a stability coefficient exceeding 0.5, leading to a less-variable output after optimization. Finally, we analyze the complementary hydro-FPV hybrid reservoirs by considering both the Pearson correlation coefficient and the stability coefficient on daily, monthly, and yearly scales. Summaries are included of locations of theoretical FPVs co-located with hydropower plants that exhibit high complementarity based on the selected metrics.

13 - HYDRO ENERGY↗

A Circularity Assessment for Silicon Solar Panels Based on Dynamic Material Flow Analysis

Solar photovoltaics (PV) are the fastest growing renewable energy technology for clean, inexpensive, and sustainable electricity generation. Along with numerous technical roadmaps to improve system cost, performance and reliability, the PV industry should also plan to handle large volumes of silicon panel waste, which is initially estimated to be ~13 million metric tons (MT) by 2050 in the U.S. alone. Understanding the magnitude of material needs and how material flows throughout the PV panel life cycle could respond to design, operational and different end-of-life (EOL) circular pathways will help transition into a circular, resource-conserving economy. Herein, we introduce a dynamic material flow analysis (DMFA) framework based on electricity generation to quantify time-series stocks and flows of bulk PV materials (e.g., solar glass and aluminum frames) throughout the life cycles of utility-scale silicon PV systems in the U.S. in the period 2000-2100. We apply the model to a range of scenarios to understand how material demands depend on selected PV-related parameters, different material circularity strategies, and recent module design trends (e.g., bifacial, frameless). We found that float glass and aluminum in PV installations would likely reach 100 million MT and 12 million MT by 2100, respectively, in the baseline scenario. The most influential parameters for PV installation and subsequent waste reduction are found to be module lifetime, module efficiency, annual degradation, and material reduction. Module recycling and component remanufacturing were found to be the most effective material circularity strategies for waste minimization. Panel reuse has negligible savings on waste under current module efficiencies compared to replacements with newer generations with higher efficiency. Ongoing trends to produce larger power frameless modules could save 10 million MT of glass and ~9 million MT of aluminum. Our results enable advanced planning for future materials needs and provide insight into potential opportunities to minimize waste.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A Novel Method for Setting Meaningful Thresholds for RMS-Energy Oscillation Detectors

Oscillation detection and mitigation is a crucial aspect of reliable power system operation. Several transmission system operators and reliability coordinators use the RMS-energy method of oscillation detection, but the process of setting thresholds is time and labor intensive. The current industry practice in the United States is to set thresholds based on the RMS-energy's value during ambient conditions, which can often lead to nuisance alarms that require thresholds to be manually retuned. In this paper, we propose a method for setting RMS-energy thresholds that directly accounts for oscillation amplitudes specified by the user. A theoretical analysis of the statistical properties of the RMS-energy incorporates these user-specified amplitudes, resulting in thresholds that reliably detect oscillations of interest while avoiding nuisance alarms. Theoretical results are validated with simulated measurements and the real-world practicality of the method is established with publicly available field-measured data from the Grid Event Signature Library.

Follum, James D.↗

Cyclic Prefix Direct Sequence Spread Spectrum Capacity Analysis

Cyclic Prefix Direct Sequence Spread Spectrum (CP-DSSS) is a novel waveform that has the potential to solve 5G objectives such as ultra reliable low latency communication (URLLC) and massive machine Type Communication (mMTC). This paper analyzes the capacity of the CP-DSSS waveform in comparison with Orthogonal Frequency Domain Multiplexing OFDM). CP-DSSS can be optimized to achieve the same capacity as OFDM when optimized by the water-filling algorithm. A significant advantage for CP-DSSS is that this capacity can be achieved with all symbols being transmitted with the same effective rate. As a result, stronger forward error correction codes can be used in a CP-DSSS implementation compared to an OFDM implementation with resource block constraints. In addition, the applicability of CP-DSSS as a waveform for a secondary network operating in the same frequency band as the primary network is discussed.

5G and Beyond Communications↗

Numerically approximating centrality for graph ranking guarantees

Many real-world datasets can be represented as graphs. Using iterative solvers to approximate graph centrality measures allows us to obtain a ranking vector on the nodes of the graph, consisting of a number for each vertex in the graph identifying its relative importance. In this study the centrality measures we use are Katz Centrality and PageRank. Given an approximate solution, we use the residual to accurately estimate how much of the ranking matches the ranking given by the exact solution. Using probabilistic matrix norms, we obtain bounds on the accuracy of the approximation compared to the exact solution with respect to the highly ranked nodes and apply numerical analysis to the computation of centrality with iterative methods. This relates the numerical accuracy of the linear solver to the data analysis accuracy of finding the correct ranking. In particular, we answer the question of which pairwise rankings are reliable given an approximate solution to the linear system. Experiments on many real-world undirected and directed networks up to several million vertices and several hundred million edges validate our theory and show that we are able to accurately estimate large portions of the approximation. We also analyze the difference between global centrality scores and personalized scores (w.r.t. specific seed vertices). By analyzing convergence error, we develop confidence in the ranking schemes of data mining. We show we are able to accurately guarantee ranking of vertices with an approximation to centrality metrics faster than current methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Investigation into Sizing Photovoltaic with Energy Storage for Off-Grid Transactive Scenarios

In this study, a novel sizing methodology was developed for centralized and interconnected operating strategies of transactive microgrids and several variables were investigated including starting month, initial charge of battery, load variability, unit cost of solar panels and energy storage, number of systems, climate, and required reliability to determine their effect on total cost. The centralized strategy improved cost by seven to ten percent compared to the isolated strategy in every case. The interconnected strategy saved an incremental amount of money consistently compared to the isolated standard. The number of connected systems was not a strong effect. It was thought that increasing the number of systems would increase the benefit of energy sharing. Climate zones studied (“Cold”; “Hot-Dry/Mixed Dry”; “Mixed Humid”; and “Cold but with lower solar irradiation”) showed a large variation on cost with the Hot-Dry/Mixed Dry being the least expensive and Cold, with lower solar irradiation being the most expensive. Cost sensitivity analysis was performed showing that the unit cost of solar has a greater effect on the total cost. Required reliability of power, measured in outage hours, exhibited an inverse relation with cost.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Best Practices Handbook for the Collection and Use of Solar Resource Data for Solar Energy Applications: Second Edition

As the world looks for low-carbon sources of energy, solar power stands out as the single most abundant energy resource on Earth. Harnessing this energy is the challenge for this century. Photovoltaics, solar heating and cooling, and concentrating solar power (CSP) are primary forms of energy applications using sunlight. These solar energy systems use different technologies, collect different fractions of the solar resource, and have different siting requirements and production capabilities. Reliable information about the solar resource is required for every solar energy application. This holds true for small installations on a rooftop as well as for large solar power plants; however, solar resource information is of particular interest for large installations, because they require substantial investment, sometimes exceeding 1 billion dollars in construction costs. Before such a project is undertaken, the best possible information about the quality and reliability of the fuel source must be made available. That is, project developers need reliable data about the solar resource available at specific locations, including historic trends with seasonal, daily, hourly, and (preferably) subhourly variability to predict the daily and annual performance of a proposed power plant. Without this data, an accurate financial analysis is not possible. Additionally, with the deployment of large amounts of distributed photovoltaics, there is an urgent need to integrate this source of generation to ensure the reliability and stability of the grid. Forecasting generation from the various sources will allow for larger penetrations of these generation sources because utilities and system operators can then ensure stable grid operations. Developed by the foremost experts in the field who have come together under the umbrella of the International Energy Agency's Solar Heating and Cooling Task 46, this handbook summarizes state-of-the-art information about all the above topics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Best Practices Handbook for the Collection and Use of Solar Resource Data for Solar Energy Applications: Third Edition

As the world looks for low-carbon sources of energy, solar power stands out as the single most abundant energy resource on Earth. Harnessing this energy is the challenge for this century. Photovoltaics, solar heating and cooling, and concentrating solar power (CSP) are primary forms of energy applications using sunlight. These solar energy systems use different technologies, collect different fractions of the solar resource, and have different siting requirements and production capabilities. Reliable information about the solar resource is required for every solar energy application. This holds true for small installations on a rooftop as well as for large solar power plants; however, solar resource information is of particular interest for large installations because they require substantial investment, sometimes exceeding 1 billion dollars in construction costs. Before such a project is undertaken, the best possible information about the quality and reliability of the fuel source must be made available. That is, project developers need reliable data about the solar resource available at specific locations, including historic trends with seasonal, daily, hourly, and (preferably) subhourly variability to predict the daily and annual performance of a proposed power plant. Without these data, an accurate financial analysis is not possible. Additionally, with the deployment of large amounts of distributed photovoltaics, there is an urgent need to integrate this source of generation to ensure the reliability and stability of the grid. Forecasting generation from the various sources will allow for larger penetrations of these generation sources because utilities and system operators can then ensure stable grid operations. Developed by the foremost experts in the field who have come together under the umbrella of the International Energy Agency’s Solar Heating and Cooling Task 46, this handbook summarizes state-of-the-art information about all these topics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Analysis of Interpretable Data Representations for 4D-STEM Using Unsupervised Learning

Abstract Understanding the structure of materials is crucial for engineering devices and materials with enhanced performance. Four-dimensional scanning transmission electron microscopy (4D-STEM) is capable of mapping nanometer-scale local crystallographic structure over micron-scale field of views. However, 4D-STEM datasets can contain tens of thousands of images from a wide variety of material structures, making it difficult to automate detection and classification of structures. Traditional automated analysis pipelines for 4D-STEM focus on supervised approaches, which require prior knowledge of the material structure and cannot describe anomalous or deviant structures. In this article, a pipeline for engineering 4D-STEM feature representations for unsupervised clustering using non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) is introduced. Each feature is evaluated using NMF and results are presented for both simulated and experimental data. It is shown that some data representations more reliably identify overlapping grains. Additionally, real space refinement is applied to identify spatially distinct sample regions, allowing for size and shape analysis to be performed. This work lays the foundation for improved analysis of nanoscale structural features in materials that deviate from expected crystallographic arrangement using 4D-STEM.

Bruefach, Alexandra (ORCID:0000000209323477)↗

A data-driven framework for predicting machining stability: employing simulated data, operational modal analysis, and enhanced transfer learning

Chatter, a self-excited vibration phenomenon, presents a significant challenge in machining operations, particularly in high-speed milling, where it can degrade tool life, reduce material removal efficiency, and compromise workpiece quality. Addressing this challenge requires a reliable predictive model that can accommodate the complex dynamics of various machining scenarios. This study introduces a novel, data-driven approach to predicting machining stability, leveraging over 140,000 simulated datasets and employing advanced techniques such as operational modal analysis (OMA), enhanced transfer learning (TL), and receptance coupling substructure analysis (RCSA). By integrating these methodologies, the framework effectively classifies and predicts chatter across diverse operational modes, achieving robust and accurate outcomes. Our model utilizes a Random Forest (RF) classifier trained with the comprehensive dataset, which demonstrates substantial improvements in both predictive accuracy and robustness. Specifically, the RF model achieved an accuracy rate of 85%, an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.90, and an F1 score of 0.88, underscoring its capability to adapt to varying machining configurations. These results highlight the framework’s potential to enhance operational efficiency and machining quality by providing reliable chatter predictions across a broad range of machining parameters. In conclusion, this research thus offers a significant advancement in predictive maintenance for machining processes, enabling more stable and efficient manufacturing operations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Degradation Analysis of Field-Exposed Photovoltaic Modules with Non-Fluoropolymer-Based Backsheets

The selection of polymeric materials utilized in photovoltaic (PV) modules has changed relatively little since the inception of the PV industry, with ethylene-vinyl acetate (EVA), polyethylene terephthalate (PET), and fluoropolymer-based laminates being the most widely adopted primary components of the encapsulant and backsheet materials. The backsheet must serve to electrically insulate the solar cells and protect them from the effects of weathering. Due to continued downward pressure on cost, other polymeric materials are being formulated to withstand outdoor exposure for use in backsheets to replace either the PET film, the fluoropoymer film, or both. Because of their relatively recent deployment, less is known about their reliability and if they are durable enough to fulfill the greater than or equal to 25 year warranties of current PV modules. This work presents a degradation analysis of field-exposed modules with polyamide- and polyester-based backsheets. Modules were exposed for up to five years in different geographic locations: USA (Maryland, Ohio), China, and Italy. Surface and cross-sectional analysis included visual inspection, colorimetry, glossimetry, and Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy. Each module experienced different types of degradation depending on the exposure site, even for the same material and module brand. For instance, the polyamide-based backsheet experienced hairline cracking and greater yellowing and chemical changes in China (Changsu, humid subtropical climate), while in Italy (Rome, hot-summer Mediterranean climate) it underwent macroscopic cracking and greater losses in gloss. Spectroscopic studies have permitted identification of degradation products and changes in polymer structure over time. Comparisons are made to fielded modules with fluoropolymer-based backsheets, as well as backsheet materials in accelerated laboratory exposures. Implications for qualification testing and service life prediction of the non-fluoropolymer-based backsheets are discussed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Computational analysis of pathogen-borne metallo β-lactamases reveals discriminating structural features between B1 types

Background: Genes conferring antibiotic resistance to groups of bacterial pathogens are cause for considerable concern, as many once-reliable antibiotics continue to see a reduction in efficacy. The recent discovery of the metallo b-lactamase blaNDM-1 gene, which appears to grant antibiotic resistance to a variety of Enterobacteriaceae via a mobile plasmid, is one example of this distressing trend. The following work describes a computational analysis of pathogen-borne MBLs that focuses on the structural aspects of characterized proteins. Results: Using both sequence and structural analyses, we examine residues and structural features specific to various pathogen-borne MBL types. This analysis identifies a linker region within MBL-like folds that may act as a discriminating structural feature between these proteins, and specifically resistance-associated acquirable MBLs. Recently released crystal structures of the newly emerged NDM-1 protein were aligned against related MBL structures using a variety of global and local structural alignment methods, and the overall fold conformation is examined for structural conservation. Conservation appears to be present in most areas of the protein, yet is strikingly absent within a linker region, making NDM-1 unique with respect to a linker-based classification scheme. Variability analysis of the NDM-1 crystal structure highlights unique residues in key regions as well as identifying several characteristics shared with other transferable MBLs. Conclusions: A discriminating linker region identified in MBL proteins is highlighted and examined in the context of NDM-1 and primarily three other MBL types: IMP-1, VIM-2 and ccrA. The presence of an unusual linker region variant and uncommon amino acid composition at specific structurally important sites may help to explain the unusually broad kinetic profile of NDM-1 and may aid in directing research attention to areas of this protein, and possibly other MBLs, that may be targeted for inactivation or attenuation of enzymatic activity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Probability friends-of-friends (PFOF) group finder: Performance study and observational data applications on photometric surveys

In tandem with observational data sets, we utilize realistic mock catalogs, based on a semi-analytic galaxy formation model, constructed specifically for Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Surveys to assess the performance of the Probability Friends-of-Friends (PFOF) group finder, and aim to develop a grouping optimization method applicable to surveys like Pan-STARRS1. Producing mock PFOF group catalogs under a variety of photometric redshift accuracies (σ{sub Δz/(1+z{sub s)}}), we find that catalog purities and completenesses from 'good' (σ{sub Δz/(1+z{sub s)}}∼ 0.01) to 'poor' (σ{sub Δz/(1+z{sub s)}}∼ 0.07) photo-zs gradually degrade from 77% and 70% to 52% and 47%, respectively. A 'subset optimization' approach is developed by using spectroscopic-redshift group data from the target field to train the group finder for application to that field and demonstrated using zCOSMOS groups for PFOF searches within PS1 Medium Deep Field04 (PS1MD04) and DEEP2 EGS groups in PS1MD07. With four data sets spanning the photo-z accuracy range from 0.01 to 0.06, we find purities and completenesses agree with their mock analogs. Further tests are performed via matches to X-ray clusters. We find PFOF groups match ∼85% of X-ray clusters identified in COSMOS and PS1MD04, lending additional support to the reliability of the detection algorithm. In the end, we demonstrate, by separating red and blue group galaxies in the EGS and PS1MD07 group catalogs, that the algorithm is not biased with respect to specifically recovering galaxies by color. The analyses suggest the PFOF algorithm shows great promise as a reliable group finder for photometric galaxy surveys of varying depth and coverage.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Air-Operated Valves 1998–2012

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of air-operated valves (AOVs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from fiscal year 1998 through 2012 for the component reliability as reported in the Equipment Performance and Information Exchange (EPIX). Results (beta distributions for failure probabilities upon demand and gamma distributions for rates) are used as inputs to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission standardized plant analysis risk models of U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The AOV failure modes considered are failure-to-open/close, failure to operate or control, and spurious operation. The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire active period. No statistically significant increasing trends were identified in the AOV results. Statistically significant decreasing trends were identified in two areas: AOV operation demands less than or equal to 20 demands per year and greater than 20 demands.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗