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At least 1,459 records · Page 81

Multiversion software reliability through fault-avoidance and fault-tolerance

In this project we have proposed to investigate a number of experimental and theoretical issues associated with the practical use of multi-version software in providing dependable software through fault-avoidance and fault-elimination, as well as run-time tolerance of software faults. In the period reported here we have working on the following: We have continued collection of data on the relationships between software faults and reliability, and the coverage provided by the testing process as measured by different metrics (including data flow metrics). We continued work on software reliability estimation methods based on non-random sampling, and the relationship between software reliability and code coverage provided through testing. We have continued studying back-to-back testing as an efficient mechanism for removal of uncorrelated faults, and common-cause faults of variable span. We have also been studying back-to-back testing as a tool for improvement of the software change process, including regression testing. We continued investigating existing, and worked on formulation of new fault-tolerance models. In particular, we have partly finished evaluation of Consensus Voting in the presence of correlated failures, and are in the process of finishing evaluation of Consensus Recovery Block (CRB) under failure correlation. We find both approaches far superior to commonly employed fixed agreement number voting (usually majority voting). We have also finished a cost analysis of the CRB approach.

Vouk, Mladen A.↗

Use of Uncertainty in Modeling DFLAW Treatment at Hanford - 17115

Average or mean is understood by most; standard deviation (SD) is understood by few. Certainty is easy to model; uncertainty is not. The flowsheet simulation, described in this paper, placed uncertainties in the G2 model of the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant's (WTP) Direct Feed Low-Activity Waste (DFLAW) process for performance and sensitivity evaluations. G2 is a dynamic material balance model that starts and proceeds with operating logic until all the feed is processed. Dynamic material balance is achieved by tracking the flows, storage, and change of all materials within the plant as time increments. Processing equipment and limitations of the flowsheet are modeled (e.g., equipment types, piping, volumes, flowrates, efficiencies, and physical and chemical environments that impact separations, phase equilibriums, and chemical reactions). Operating logic represents the rules and strategies of a running plant. The G2 model simulated both certainty and uncertainty scenarios for comparison purposes. For the uncertainty scenarios, process decisions were made using presumed values to simulate various operational measurement errors and process variabilities. Presumed means that the known G2 values are adjusted to replicate measurement errors and variabilities. These include: 1) volume measurement, 2) sample analysis, 3) melter decontamination factor (DF), 4) glass former weighing, and 5) glass former composition variations. The errors were randomly generated in accordance with SD values of measurement devices, laboratory methods, and glass former composition ranges. The G2 model runs give insight on the DFLAW process' controllability and the expected range of glass properties. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Compressive Classification for TEM-EELS

Acquiring atomic-resolution images of beam sensitive materials or under dynamic conditions (e.g. operando STEM) is very difficult and requires precise dose fractioning to minimize the dose delivered to the sample and acquire the data more rapidly than dynamics present. Typical methods of low-dose STEM imaging include adjusting the beam current, dwell-time, and probe Scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) is used routinely to obtain atomic-resolution images of a small selection of radiation tolerant materials under stable conditions.size. All three of these determine the dose over a spatial area in STEM. Recently, compressive sensing [1] has been applied to electron microscopy. The computational imaging method of inpainting [2] has been proposed as a method to reduce dose and increase acquisition speed for STEM. Inpainting is a technique to recover missing pixels in an image. By skipping pixels (randomly) during acquisition, a fourth dose-control mechanism is realized [3]. A few implementations of randomly-subsampled STEM exist (e.g., [4]). To make the concepts of compressive sensing accessible to the microscopy community we begin with an example using atomic resolution images of a GaAs crystal (see Figure 1). Because the crystal is periodic it has a sparse representation in reciprocal space. In fact, a sparse representation is a key component of compressive sensing. If an image is sub-sampled randomly we find that the Fourier transform remains sparse, but becomes increasing noisy as less and less data is acquired. Yet, by finding the peaks in the reciprocal image and removing the noise it is possible to recover atomic resolution images with only 1% of the pixels. Figure 1 shows the reconstruction process for GaAs sub-sampled at 50%, 10%, 5%, and 1%. Periodic images form a special class for which the optimal sampling approach (according to CS theory) is a random selection of pixels. For non-periodic images, such as those arising in in-situ STEM, methods such as dictionary learning are necessary [2,5]. The data can be compressed in time for TEM [5] or pixels can be skipped randomly for STEM. There are several issues that arise in developing a random scan for STEM [4] and a coded aperture for TEM. The remainder of the talk will address these issues. References: [1] E Candes and M Wakin. Signal Processing Magazine, IEEE. 2(25) (2008), pp. 21. [2] A Stevens, Pu Y, Sun Y, et al. Artificial Intelligence & Statistics (AISTATS), 2017. [3] A Stevens, H Yang, L Carin et al. Microscopy 63(1), (2014), pp. 41. [4] L Kovarik, A Stevens, A Liyu et al. Appl. Phys. Lett. 109, 164102 (2016). [5] A Stevens, L Kovarik, P Abellan et al. Adv. Structural and Chemical Imaging 1(10), (2015), pp. 1. [6] Supported by the Chemical Imaging, Signature Discovery, and Analytics in Motion Initiatives at PNNL. PNNL is operated by Battelle Memorial Inst. for the US DOE; contract DE-AC05-76RL01830.

Hao, Weituo↗

Microstructure Reconstruction of Sheet Molding Composite Using a Random Chips Packing Algorithm

Fiber-reinforced polymer composites are strong candidates for structural materials to replace steel and light alloys in lightweight vehicle design because of their low density and relatively high strength. In the integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) development of carbon fiber composites, microstructure reconstruction algorithms are needed to generate material microstructure representative volume element (RVE) based on the material processing information. The microstructure RVE reconstruction enables the material property prediction by finite element analysis (FEA)This paper presents an algorithm to reconstruct the microstructure of a chopped carbon fiber/epoxy laminate material system produced by compression molding, normally known as sheet molding compounds (SMC). The algorithm takes the result from material’s manufacturing process as inputs, such as the orientation tensor of fibers, the chopped fiber sheet geometry, and the fiber volume fraction. The chopped fiber sheets are treated as deformable rectangle chips and a random packing algorithm is developed to pack these chips into a square plate. The RVE is built in a layer-by-layer fashion until the desired number of lamina is reached, then a fine tuning process is applied to finalize the reconstruction. Compared to the previous methods, this new approach has the ability to model bended fibers by allowing limited amount of overlaps of rectangle chips. Furthermore, the method does not need SMC microstructure images, for which the image-based characterization techniques have not been mature enough, as inputs. Case studies are performed and the results show that the statistics of the reconstructed microstructures generated by the algorithm matches well with the target input parameters from processing.

Huang, Tianyu↗

Power demand risk models on milling machines

The measurement of power demand risks in manufacturing power systems will benefit manufacturers and the wider society. If the risks can be characterized using manufacturing parameters, manufacturers can better control risks originating in those parameters, select less power-risky production plans, and reduce utility costs and resource consumption. The measurement of risk can also help manufacturers and power suppliers to protect their power systems from unexpected disturbances. Existing measures of risk, however, do not consider time duration, and thus cannot accurately quantify the risks in manufacturing power systems; the risks of a period of high power demand must be evaluated with the duration of the surge. Therefore, new methods of measuring power demand risks are proposed, adapting measures drawn from the field of finance. With a focus on milling operations, processing power is shown to be a function of processing amount and processing time, and a power demand distribution is directly derived as a joint distribution of and A and T. A bivariate random variable model with copulas is applied to examine the correlation in the joint distribution. Then, based on evaluation of a probability distribution of power demand from and, new risk measures are introduced. Herein illustrative examples are provided to show how the proposed measures can quantify the power demand risks from milling machines, based on manufacturing parameters. Certain manufacturing parameters are found to affect overall power demand risks, including i) raw material type, ii) variability in processing time, and iii) correlation between and. In the examples, these three factors increase power demand risks by up to 108%, 67%, and 1% respectively.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Field evaluation of remote wind sensing technologies: Shore-based and buoy mounted LIDAR systems

In developing a national energy strategy, the United States has a number of objectives, including increasing economic growth, improving environmental quality, and enhancing national energy security. Wind power contributes to these objectives through the deployment of clean, affordable and reliable domestic energy. To achieve U.S. wind generation objectives, the Wind and Water Power Program within the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) instituted the U.S. Offshore Wind: Removing Market Barriers Program in FY 2011. Accurate and comprehensive information on offshore wind resource characteristics across a range of spatial and temporal scales is one market barrier that needs to be addressed through advanced research in remote sensing technologies. There is a pressing need for reliable offshore wind-speed measurements to assess the availability of the potential wind energy resource in terms of power production and to identify any frequently occurring spatial variability in the offshore wind resource that may impact the operational reliability and lifetime of wind turbines and their components and to provide a verification program to validate the “bankability” of the output of these alternative technologies for use by finance institutions for the financing of offshore wind farm construction. The application of emerging remote sensing technologies is viewed as a means to cost-effectively meet the data needs of the offshore wind industry. In particular, scanning and buoy mounted LIDAR have been proposed as a means to obtain accurate offshore wind data at multiple locations without the high cost and regulatory hurdles associated with the construction of offshore meteorological towers. However; before these remote sensing technologies can be accepted the validity of the measured data must be evaluated to ensure their accuracy. The proposed research will establish a unique coastal ocean test-bed in the Mid-Atlantic for the evaluation of LIDAR-based wind measurement systems to validate the accuracy of remotely measured wind data in marine applications. Specifically, the test-bed will be utilized to systematically evaluate the capability of emerging scanning LIDAR and buoy mounted vertically profiling LIDAR by: (1) Evaluating a fixed scanning LIDAR against land-based 50 and 60 meter high meteorological masts fitted with research quality cup-vane and/or sonic anemometers; (2) Evaluating a buoy mounted vertically profiling LIDAR fixed on land and floating in a sheltered bay against a co-located 60 meter high meteorological mast fitted with a research quality cup-vane and/or sonic anemometers and the fixed scanning LIDAR; and (3) Offshore field evaluation of both LIDAR platforms through a comparison of the fixed scanning LIDAR data and data obtained by the buoy mounted LIDAR located 10 miles offshore. The proposed research will systematically validate Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) based wind measurement systems and assess the temporal and spatial variability of the offshore wind resource in the Mid-Atlantic east of New Jersey. The goal of the proposed project is to address the technical and commercial challenges of the offshore wind energy industry by validating and assessing cost-effective, over ocean wind resource characterization technologies. The objective is to systematically evaluate the capability of both scanning and vertically profiling LIDARs to accurately measure 3D wind fields through comparison with fixed met masts and intercomparison among LIDAR platforms. Once validated, data collected by both buoy mounted vertically profiling LIDARs and shore-based, pulsed horizontally scanning LIDARs can be used to accurately assess offshore wind resources and to quantify the spatial and temporal variability in the offshore wind fields. One of the fundamental research questions to be addressed in phase 1 is the assessment of various measurement and data processing schemes to retrieve accurate wind vectors in the marine environment over large sampling ranges (10 to 12 km) and varying atmospheric aerosol levels. Atmospheric conditions and aerosol content within the coastal ocean region of the Mid-Atlantic seaboard of the US can vary significantly over short time periods in response to frontal passages and extratropical and tropical low pressure system passage offshore of the coast. Since aerosols provide the scattering medium for the determination of LIDAR Doppler shifts in the atmosphere the accuracy and range of LIDAR derived velocity measurements as a function of variation in aerosol content in the marine environment is a key research question to be addressed. In phase 1, it is desired to capture as much variation in atmospheric conditions and aerosol content as possible. To this end, collocated measurements of LIDAR and standard anemometer wind fields will be captured by the project PIs over all four seasons and during specific events (e.g., coastal low pressure system passage) in year 1. Additionally, since the meteorological masts are permanent structures, additional events can be captured over the three year duration of the field research project. All research instruments are owned by Fishermen’s Energy and made available to the PIs though a lease agreement as part of the DOE grant. Energy Fishermen’s Energy will be responsible for the operation and maintenance of the scanning LIDAR and met mast anemometers. On a daily basis, environmental data and systems performance indicators will be transmitted from each measurement station to the Fishermen’s project team consisting of both in-house personnel and equipment manufacturer engineers. Data sets include compiled LIDAR files as well as data sets from ancillary sensors. Diagnostic parameters to be monitored include standard deviations of measured values, battery levels and charging systems output, and the operational status. Once data have been confirmed as complete and reliable, files will be transferred to the Garrad Hassan (a subcontractor to Fishermen’s Energy) for incorporation in to the validation database, which is accessible to other scientific team members. Data collection times and durations will be determined by the PI and Co-PIs in consultation with instrument engineers to ensure the capture of data representative of the expected range of mid-Atlantic atmospheric conditions (e.g., temperature, moisture, coastal low pressure systems, tropical systems, rain, snow, fog). The collection and processing of the data is a function of site specific measurement requirements (Kelley et.al. 2007; Hannon et.al. 2008). To determine the optimal profiles of wind speed and direction from the LIDAR radial velocities as a function of azimuth angle, rigorous estimates of the bias and random error of each radial velocity estimate are required. Lockheed Martin Coherent Technologies, Inc., under contract with Fishermen’s Energy, will provide analyses of raw and processed data using various scan patterns to determine optimal performance settings for the pulsed scanning LIDAR. Once optimized, appropriate processing and analyses techniques will be evaluated by Garrad Hassan for use in validating the accuracy of the LIDAR wind field measurements against the standard anemometer measurements from the meteorological masts. The most attractive capability of the scanning LIDAR is the ability to provide high spatial resolution observations in a three-dimensional volume which provides superior statistical accuracy due to the large number of samples obtained. Each radial scan provides measurements in 100 range gates over a distance of 10 to 12 km at an update rate of 5 to 10 Hz and rotation of 2.5° per second. Each rotation at a fixed azimuth requires 2.4 minutes. Depending on the number of azimuths desired a complete scan can take up to 10 minutes or longer to complete. Once collected the radial velocities are processed to produce vector wind velocity estimates based on a set of data distributed in angle and range around points of interest, typically a standard grid within the radial wind map. To calculate wind vectors over a limited spatial area of interest for the comparison of data with other measurement platforms a localized least-squares approach has been applied by Hannon et.al. (2008) and a Variation Assimilation (VAR) processing technique has been applied by Chan and al Assimilation (VAR) processing technique has been applied by Chan and Shao (2006). Additionally, Kelley et.al. (2007) applied a “stare” technique that fixed a scanning LIDAR in both azimuth and elevation angles to measure over collocated sampling volumes of the LIDAR and a 3D sonic anemometer mounted to a fixed mast. Although the stare technique is limited to wind directions aligned with the sampling radial of the LIDAR, it does provide a direct comparison of sampling volumes. Each of the processing techniques described above (and possibly others) will be evaluated to determine the validity of the LIDAR derived wind fields in the marine environment. Numerical methods such as linear regression and comparison of probability density functions of wind fields measured by each instrument platform will be used to assess the processing techniques. Linear regression has the advantage of directly evaluating corresponding pairs of wind data measured by each instrument and can lend insight into deviations and bias between instruments as a function of wind speed. Assessment of the coherency between the probability density function of the wind measured by each instrument provides insight into processes that may not be accurately resolved by each instrument at specific frequencies. Once processed and assessed the most appropriate technique will be utilized to provide valid wind measurements from the pulsed scanning LIDAR. A detailed analysis of the measurement data from the LIDAR and the three meteorological towers and comparison of the coastal wind characteristics from the different systems will be performed by the CO_PI at NREL. This analysis will evaluate how the WT LIDAR performance and measurement of the wind characteristics vary with distance from the LIDAR and by atmospheric conditions; using the tower measurements at different distances (4.8, 9.6, and 19 km) from the LIDAR as a reference. The comparative analysis will include, to the extent possible, evaluation of parameters such as wind speed and direction distributions, wind shear, turbulence intensity and their variations by atmospheric conditions, month or season, and time of day.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Aqueous Carbon Quantum Dot-Embedded PC60-PC61 BM Nanospheres for Ecological Fluorescent Printing: Contrasting Fluorescence Resonance Energy-Transfer Signals between Watermelon-like and Random Morphologies

To go beyond the PC60 surfactant structure, the double-layer micelle morphology in water motivates exploration of altered protocols to produce new morphologies. Furthermore, the low photoluminescence quantum yield of aqueous fullerene-based particles encourages high fluorescence to create a light-emitting display. With this in mind, we established new hybrid n-type nanospheres with carbon quantum dot (CQD)-embedded PC60-PC61BM particles, processed using two different protocols. The homogenizer-assisted PC60-CQD-PC61BM resulted in a watermelon-shaped spherical particle, whereas a circular morphology with randomly embedded CQDs was observed in the microwave-treated hybrids. More surprisingly, the watermelon-shaped colloid induced efficient fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET) between the CQD and C-60 molecules of PC61BM, and the FRET-mediated emission signature diminished gradually as the stripe patterns collapsed. This phenomenon allowed different fluorescent colors in the colloidal printing film. We thereby provided the new carrier dynamics of the particle photonic activities of the developed aqueous PC60-based colloids with the possibility of ecological utilization.

carbon dot particles↗

Methods of Reverberation Mapping. I. Time-lag Determination by Measures of Randomness

A class of methods for measuring time delays between astronomical time series is introduced in the context of quasar reverberation mapping, which is based on measures of randomness or complexity of the data. Several distinct statistical estimators are considered that do not rely on polynomial interpolations of the light curves nor on their stochastic modeling, and do not require binning in correlation space. Methods based on von Neumann’s mean-square successive-difference estimator are found to be superior to those using other estimators. An optimized von Neumann scheme is formulated, which better handles sparsely sampled data and outperforms current implementations of discrete correlation function methods. This scheme is applied to existing reverberation data of varying quality, and consistency with previously reported time delays is found. In particular, the size–luminosity relation of the broad-line region in quasars is recovered with a scatter comparable to that obtained by other works, yet with fewer assumptions made concerning the process underlying the variability. The proposed method for time-lag determination is particularly relevant for irregularly sampled time series, and in cases where the process underlying the variability cannot be adequately modeled.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Generation of nanocrystalline surface layer in short pulse laser processing of metal targets under conditions of spatial confinement by solid or liquid overlayer

The effect of spatial confinement by a solid or liquid overlayer on short pulse laser-induced surface microstructure modification is investigated in a series of large-scale atomistic simulations performed for Ag targets irradiated in the regime of melting and resolidification, below the thresholds for laser spallation and ablation. For Ag targets with free surfaces, the formation of a nanocrystalline region with random crystallographic grain orientation is observed under irradiation conditions leading to the generation of numerous sub-surface voids that slow down the solidification process. When no voids are generated, the resolidification produces grains misoriented with respect to the bulk of the target by just several degrees and separated from each other by low angle grain boundaries or dislocation walls. The presence of a liquid or solid overlayer suppresses nucleation of sub-surface voids, provides an additional pathway for cooling through the heat conduction to the overlayer, and facilitates the formation of nanocrystalline structure in a region of the metal target adjacent to the overlayer. Moreover, the stabilizing effect of the solid overlayer may result in an incomplete melting of metal in the vicinity of the interface, making it possible for grains growing from the interface to retain “memory” of the target orientation and to produce nanocrystalline interfacial region with small misorientation of grains with respect to the bulk of the target. In all simulations, the nanocrystalline layers generated by laser processing of single crystal Ag targets are characterized by a high density of stacking faults, twin boundaries, and point defects produced in the course of the rapid resolidification.

Chemistry↗

One-Pot Depolymerization and Polycondensation of PET Based Random Oligo- and Polyesters

The glycolysis of PET is a promising well-developed technique that could be utilized in a wide range of processes. Due to its equilibrial nature, the high ratio of reagents and the purification steps it is an expensive process. In this study our goal was to modify the standard glycolysis to an easily modulateable method (acido-alcoholysis) suited for one-pot oligoester, polyester synthesis. Adipic acid was added to the depolymerization reaction to connect low molecular weighed components into oligoesters. PET depolymerization reaction series were carried out with ethylene–glycol/adipic acid and butane-1,4-diol/adipic acid to demonstrate the tuneability of these systems. The reaction products were thoroughly characterized with NMR, FTIR, TGA, DSC and functional group analysis. One-pot depolymerization-polycondensation reactions were engineered to produce unsaturated and saturated polyesters. The unsaturated polyesters were dissolved in styrene, cross-linked and moulded to be characterized with DMA. A decreasing tendency of the glass transition temperature and cross-link density were found in the function of the ratio of adipic acid used during the depolymerization step. Acido-alcoholysis proved to be a versatile technique that could be used to engineer oligoesters and polyesters. The reagent use can be minimalized, and the raw reaction products can be directly applied as mid-products.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Stable Kalman filters for processing clock measurement data

Kalman filters have been used for some time to process clock measurement data. Due to instabilities in the standard Kalman filter algorithms, the results have been unreliable and difficult to obtain. During the past several years, stable forms of the Kalman filter have been developed, implemented, and used in many diverse applications. These algorithms, while algebraically equivalent to the standard Kalman filter, exhibit excellent numerical properties. Two of these stable algorithms, the Upper triangular-Diagonal (UD) filter and the Square Root Information Filter (SRIF), have been implemented to replace the standard Kalman filter used to process data from the Deep Space Network (DSN) hydrogen maser clocks. The data are time offsets between the clocks in the DSN, the timescale at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), and two geographically intermediate clocks. The measurements are made by using the GPS navigation satellites in mutual view between clocks. The filter programs allow the user to easily modify the clock models, the GPS satellite dependent biases, and the random noise levels in order to compare different modeling assumptions. The results of this study show the usefulness of such software for processing clock data. The UD filter is indeed a stable, efficient, and flexible method for obtaining optimal estimates of clock offsets, offset rates, and drift rates. A brief overview of the UD filter is also given.

Clements, P. A.↗

Nonlinear random response prediction using MSC/NASTRAN

An equivalent linearization technique was incorporated into MSC/NASTRAN to predict the nonlinear random response of structures by means of Direct Matrix Abstract Programming (DMAP) modifications and inclusion of the nonlinear differential stiffness module inside the iteration loop. An iterative process was used to determine the rms displacements. Numerical results obtained for validation on simple plates and beams are in good agreement with existing solutions in both the linear and linearized regions. The versatility of the implementation will enable the analyst to determine the nonlinear random responses for complex structures under combined loads. The thermo-acoustic response of a hexagonal thermal protection system panel is used to highlight some of the features of the program.

Robinson, J. H.↗

Fast GPU-Based Generation of Large Graph Networks From Degree Distributions

Synthetically generated, large graph networks serve as useful proxies to real-world networks for many graph-based applications. The ability to generate such networks helps overcome several limitations of real-world networks regarding their number, availability, and access. Here, we present the design, implementation, and performance study of a novel network generator that can produce very large graph networks conforming to any desired degree distribution. The generator is designed and implemented for efficient execution on modern graphics processing units (GPUs). Given an array of desired vertex degrees and number of vertices for each desired degree, our algorithm generates the edges of a random graph that satisfies the input degree distribution. Multiple runtime variants are implemented and tested: 1) a uniform static work assignment using a fixed thread launch scheme, 2) a load-balanced static work assignment also with fixed thread launch but with cost-aware task-to-thread mapping, and 3) a dynamic scheme with multiple GPU kernels asynchronously launched from the CPU. The generation is tested on a range of popular networks such as Twitter and Facebook, representing different scales and skews in degree distributions. Results show that, using our algorithm on a single modern GPU (NVIDIA Volta V100), it is possible to generate large-scale graph networks at rates exceeding 50 billion edges per second for a 69 billion-edge network. GPU profiling confirms high utilization and low branching divergence of our implementation from small to large network sizes. For networks with scattered distributions, we provide a coarsening method that further increases the GPU-based generation speed by up to a factor of 4 on tested input networks with over 45 billion edges.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Confidence in Numerical Simulations

This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to “forecast,” that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists “think.” This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. “Confidence” derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Performing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Through RAVEN

The Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENviroment (RAVEN) code is a software tool that acts as the control logic driver and post-processing engine for the newly developed Thermal-Hydraulic code RELAP-7. RAVEN is now a multi-purpose Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) software framework that allows dispatching different functionalities: Derive and actuate the control logic required to simulate the plant control system and operator actions (guided procedures), allowing on-line monitoring/controlling in the Phase Space Perform both Monte-Carlo sampling of random distributed events and Dynamic Event Tree based analysis Facilitate the input/output handling through a Graphical User Interface (GUI) and a post-processing data mining module

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Markovian transport processes in a heterogeneous, variably saturated watershed: A multi-domain spatial Markov model

Transport processes in watersheds remain challenging to describe accurately with upscaled models because of their intricate complexities at multiple scales that can lead to multi-modal, non-Fickian breakthrough curves. One of the recent advances in solute transport modeling has been the Lagrangian spatial Markov model (SMM), which describes transport using velocity increments and models the correlated transitions between them. The method has been applied previously to saturated porous media and fractured media, but these successful applications suggest it may be useful for describing watershed scale processes as well. An existing, 3-D, heterogeneous variably saturated model of a headwaters catchment and classical random walk particle tracking were used to generate a forward simulation and the resulting transport was analyzed with a spatial Markov framework. Existing SMM methods were used to analyze the transport paths through the complex, unconfined domain and we found that the vadose zone plays an important role in the correlation structure. As such, a new kind of SMM is proposed, termed a multi-domain SMM (MD-SMM), that uses separate correlation models for auto-transitions in the vadose zone and the saturated zone, and for the cross-transitions between them. The MD-SMM improves representation of transport relative to the single domain model and can naturally delineate times when a particle is in the vadose zone or the saturated zone, adding an additional degree of realism to the upscaled model. Lastly, we show that the transition probability matrix for transport in the saturated portion of this unconfined system is approximately Markovian, which is an important validation of the proposed framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A ModEx Framework for Watershed Subsurface Investigation With Limited Geophysical Data Using Machine Learning and Hydrologic Modeling

Abstract Subsurface heterogeneity influences watershed hydrology strongly but remains difficult to characterize at catchment scales with sparse and costly field data. Geophysical surveys such as electromagnetic induction (EMI) provide local spatial subsurface images yet scaling them to watershed scales and converting EMI‐derived resistivity into hydraulic properties remains a challenge. We present a Model–Experiment (ModEx) framework that integrates limited EMI data with machine learning (ML) and hydrologic modeling to improve process representation and guide field investigations. Sparse EMI surveys were scaled to the catchment scale using a Random Forest model, and the resulting resistivity fields were combined with nearby borehole constraints to parameterize a hydrologic model. The EMI‐informed hydrological simulations improved predictions of streamflow sustained by subsurface flow and shallow saturation patterns. By combining EMI data and ML with hydrologic modeling, the ModEx framework guides future subsurface surveys, providing a transferable and efficient strategy for data–model integration across diverse watersheds. Plain Language Summary Mapping the underground network of soil and rock that controls water is essential for predicting floods and droughts, but seeing underground is difficult and expensive. We cannot drill everywhere, so scientists use geophysical tools to scan broad areas. There are two key challenges: these geophysical scans are often sparse across the whole watershed, and the geophysical data is hard to translate into water‐related properties. We used artificial intelligence to solve these problems. We taught a computer to find patterns linking the limited geophysical data to the land surface properties. This allowed it to fill in the gaps and create a complete, useful subsurface map for the entire watershed. This new map improves hydrologic simulations, leading to more accurate predictions of water movement in the watershed. It also helps scientists build better models with less data and generates a priority map showing where to measure next, making future investigations more efficient. Key Points Limited EMI scaled with ML improves catchment‐scale subsurface parameterization for hydrologic models The framework integrates hydrologic modeling with limited geophysical data to support subsurface investigation design ModEx framework offers a transferable data–model integration strategy that quantifies and reduces uncertainty guiding watershed studies

Chen, Hang↗

Role of defects in the process of graphene growth on hexagonal boron nitride from atomic carbon

Hexagonal boron nitride (h-BN) is an attractive substrate for graphene, as the interaction between these materials is weak enough for high carrier mobility to be retained in graphene but strong enough to allow for some epitaxial relationship. We deposited graphene on exfoliated h-BN by molecular beam epitaxy (MBE), we analyzed the atomistic details of the process by ab initio density functional theory (DFT), and we linked the DFT and MBE results by random walk theory. Graphene appears to nucleate around defects in virgin h-BN. The DFT analysis reveals that sticking of carbon to perfect h-BN is strongly reduced by desorption, so that pre-existing seeds are needed for the nucleation. The dominant nucleation seeds are C{sub N}C{sub B} and O{sub N}C{sub N} pairs and B{sub 2}O{sub 3} inclusions in the virgin substrate.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗