Machine learning enabled reduced-order scenario generation for stochastic analysis of solar power forecasts
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Energy & Fuels↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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2021 Cost of Wind Energy Review [Slides]
This analysis uses representative utility-scale and distributed wind energy projects to estimate the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for land-based, offshore, and distributed wind power in the United States. Data and results detailed here are derived from 2021 commissioned plants and representative industry data as well as state-of-the-art modeling capabilities. Modeling is conducted to provide more granular detail on specific cost categories. This study represents the 11th annual installment and is intended to provide insight into current component-level costs as well as a basis for understanding variability in wind energy LCOE across the country.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Key Design Trades for a Near-term Lunar Fission Surface Power System
NASA and DOE have been developing concepts for lunar and Mars Fission Surface Power (FSP) systems for decades and have considered many different technologies and system variations. In 2023, three contractor teams completed Phase 1 conceptual design studies on a 40 kWe lunar FSP system in response to a modest set of NASA requirements and goals. A government team consisting of NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), and Idaho National Laboratory (INL) was formed to develop an independent design approach that adhered to the same requirements and goals posed to the contractor teams. GRC provided expertise, analysis, and design decisions for the power conversion, heat rejection, power management & distribution (PMAD), and mission integration. LANL and INL provided expertise, analysis, and design decisions for the reactor and shielding. The goal of the government study was to develop representative concepts that could be used in NASA architecture studies, guide government technology investments, and inform Phase 2 requirements definition. This paper provides a summary of the key technology options, system-level trades, and mission-level concept-of-operations.
99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
Towards fully predictive gyrokinetic full- f simulations: validation and triangularity studies in TCV
Designing economical magnetic confinement fusion power plants motivates computational tools that can estimate plasma behavior from engineering parameters without direct reliance on experimental measurement of the plasma profiles. In this work, we present full-f global long-wavelength gyrokinetic simulations of edge and scrape-off layer turbulence in tokamaks that use only magnetic geometry, heating power, and particle inventory as inputs. Unlike many modeling approaches that employ free parameters fitted to experimental data, raising uncertainties when extrapolating to reactor scales. This approach directly simulates turbulence and resulting profiles through gyrokinetics without such empirical adjustments. This is achieved via an adaptive sourcing algorithm in Gkeyll that strictly controls energy injection and emulates particle sourcing due to neutral recycling. We show that the simulated kinetic profiles compare reasonably well with Thomson scattering and Langmuir probe data for Tokamak á Configuration Variable (TCV) discharge #65125, and that the simulations reproduce characteristic features such as blob transport and self-organized electric fields. Applying the same framework to study triangularity effects suggests mechanisms contributing to the improved confinement reported for negative triangularity (NT). Simulations of TCV discharges #65125 and #65130 indicate that NT increases the E x B flow shear (by about 20% in these cases), which correlates with reduced turbulent losses and a modest change in the distribution of power exhaust to the vessel wall. While the physical models contain approximations that can be refined in future work, the predictive capability demonstrated here, evolving multiple profile relaxation times with kinetic electron and ion models in hundreds of GPU hours, indicates the feasibility of using Gkeyll to support design studies of fusion devices.
Hoffmann, Antoine Cyril David [Princeton Plasma Ph↗
Orbits of Saturn's Inner Moons and Other Observations Connected within the 1995-1996 Saturnian Ring Plane Crossing
We reduced and analyzed radio images of Saturn taken in 1990-1995 at 0.35, 2.0, 3.6 and 6.1 cm wavelength. The latitudinal brightness distribution varies substantially over time. Detailed modeling of these data shows that NH4SH condenses at the thermochemical equilibrium temperature of 235.5 K only at Northern mid-latitudes. Over most of the planet, condensation does not occur until the gas cools to 190 +/- 5 K. Supersaturation may also cause the dark equatorial region seen in 1995 at 6.1 cm. Observations of the rings show that the West (dusk) ansa is brighter than the East (dawn) ansa by factors up to 2. The magnitude of the asymmetry increases with increasing wavelength and with decreasing distance to the planet. This East-West asymmetry may be due to multiple scattering in gravitational wakes. We improved the Monte Carlo scattering code used to model the microwave emission from Saturn's rings at multiple wavelengths. The basic code outlined in Dunn, Molnar, and Fix describes the rings as a uniform, infinite layer of ice spheres with a finite vertical extent. The particle sizes follow a power law distribution and scatter light according to a linear combination of Mie and isotropic phase functions. These parameters may be adjusted to reflect the physical properties in the scattering properties of the ring particles. This is used to construct a model which can be directly compared to Very Large Array data. The code has been extended by including anisotropic particle distributions, primarily in the form of the wake structures that are likely to exist in the enhancements. The vertical extent of the wakes equals that of the ring layer. Between the wakes are regions of diminished density so that the optical depth integrated over many wakes matches that of the Voyager occultation experiments. This allows us to model the brightness temperature as a function of azimuth and look for asymmetric scattering behavior in the rings. By changing the width and relative density of the wakes, we can alter the nature of the gross scattering properties of the rings to match what is seen in our data.
Lissauer, Jack J.↗
Reinforcement Learning‐Based Adaptation of Grid Following Inverter's Internal Controller to Networked Microgrids' Strengths
The varying topological configurations, generator commitments and dispatches, and dynamic load demand lead to changing system's strengths during the operations of networked microgrids. When the system's strengths significantly change, the fixed control gains at large devices may result in unsatisfactory system performance; this necessitates the tuning of the control gains at large devices to adapt to the changing system's strengths. In this paper, observer-based reinforcement learning (RL) is utilised to automatically tune the proportional-integral (PI) gains of phase lock loop (PLL) controller of grid-following (GFL) inverters to adapt to the changing strengths of microgrids and networked microgrids. The RL agent in this framework augments an observer predicting system's strengths, from which the RL control policy will adjust accordingly to tune the PLL controller's gains towards the system's strengths. Also, to enhance the control performance, the recently introduced Barrier function-based RL framework is leveraged for the design of reward function to prevent the high frequency nadir. An operational 26 kV electric distribution system, which is modelled as networked microgrids, is used to illustrate the need and effectiveness of the proposed RL-tuned control.
frequency response↗
How Cyanobacterial Distributions Reveal Flow and Irradiance Conditions of Photosynthetic Biofilm Formation
Microbial life on Earth is enormously abundant at sediment-water interfaces. The fossil record in fact contains abundant evidence of the preservation of life on such surfaces. It is therefore critical to our interpretation of early Earth history, and potentially to history of life on other planets, to be able to recognize life forms at these interfaces. On Earth this life often occurs as organized structures of microbes and their extracellular exudates known as biofilms. When such biofilms occur in areas receiving sunlight photosynthetic biofilms are the dominant form in natural ecosystems due to selective advantage inherent in their ability to utilize solar energy. Cyanobacteria are the dominant phototrophic microbes in most modern and ancient photosynthetic biofilms, microbial mats and stromatolites. Due to their long (3.5 billion year) evolutionary history, this group has extensively diversified resulting in an enormous array of morphologies and physiological abilities. This enormous diversity and specialization results in very specific selection for a particular cyanobacterium in each available photosynthetic niche. Furthermore these organisms can alter their spatial orientation, cell morphology, pigmentation and associations with heterotrophic organisms in order to fine tune their optimization to a given micro-niche. These adaptations can be detected, and if adequate knowledge of the interaction between environmental conditions and organism response is available, the detectable organism response can be used to infer the environmental conditions causing that response. This presentation will detail two specific examples which illustrate this point, Light and water are essential to photosynthesis in cyanobacteria and these organisms have specific detectable behavioural responses to these parameters. We will present cyanobacterial responses to quantified flow and irradiance to demonstrate the interpretative power of distribution and orientation information. This study presents new results, but many such examples are already found in the literature.
Prufert-Bebout, Lee↗
VERA neutronics high-fidelity benchmark for a modern PWR core design
Nearly 20 years since the origin of the infamous 'Kord Smith Challenge', and after 10 years and hundreds of millions of dollars invested by the US Department of Energy into the development of the Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA), the capability to accurately simulate a modern pressurized water reactor (PWR) fuel cycle at the fuel rod level with high-fidelity Monte Carlo (MC) stochastic transport methods still evades us. The deterministic methods in VERA make approximations that allow it to be successfully benchmarked against measured data from hundreds of PWR fuel cycles, but none of these benchmarks provided information at the local fuel rod level or allowed quantification of these approximations' impact for modern PWR reload designs. Using MPACT to establish the estimated isotopic distributions and thermal hydraulic conditions in a recent and challenging reactor design, a 2D quarter-core benchmark problem was established and solved consistently with both MPACT, the 51-energy group deterministic transport solver in VERA, and Shift, the continuous-energy MC transport solver in VERA. Impacts of energy groups, ray spacing, and scattering treatment were evaluated. Though MPACT has been previously shown to perform well compared to MC methods for initial Cycle 1 cores with only fresh fuel, this is the first benchmark of MPACT for a challenging modern reload core with depleted fuel and burnable absorbers. This work establishes additional credibility for the methods in MPACT and highlights the efficiency of these methods relative to those in use by MC-based tools. (authors)
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
Karhunen-Loeve Estimation of the Power Spectrum Parameters from the Angular Distribution of Galaxies in Early Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data
We present measurements of parameters of the three-dimensional power spectrum of galaxy clustering from 222 square degrees of early imaging data in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). The projected galaxy distribution on the sky is expanded over a set of Karhunen-Loeve (KL) eigenfunctions, which optimize the signal-to-noise ratio in our analysis. A maximum likelihood analysis is used to estimate parameters that set the shape and amplitude of the three-dimensional power spectrum of galaxies in the SDSS magnitude-limited sample with r* less than 21. Our best estimates are gamma = 0.188 +/- 0.04 and sigma(sub 8L) = 0.915 +/- 0.06 (statistical errors only), for a flat universe with a cosmological constant. We demonstrate that our measurements contain signal from scales at or beyond the peak of the three-dimensional power spectrum. We discuss how the results scale with systematic uncertainties, like the radial selection function. We find that the central values satisfy the analytically estimated scaling relation. We have also explored the effects of evolutionary corrections, various truncations of the KL basis, seeing, sample size, and limiting magnitude. We find that the impact of most of these uncertainties stay within the 2 sigma uncertainties of our fiducial result.
Szalay, Alexander S.↗
RF model of the distribution system as a communication channel, phase 2. Volume 2: Task reports
Based on the established feasibility of predicting, via a model, the propagation of Power Line Frequency on radial type distribution feeders, verification studies comparing model predictions against measurements were undertaken using more complicated feeder circuits and situations. Detailed accounts of the major tasks are presented. These include: (1) verification of model; (2) extension, implementation, and verification of perturbation theory; (3) parameter sensitivity; (4) transformer modeling; and (5) compensation of power distribution systems for enhancement of power line carrier communication reliability.
Rustay, R. C.↗
Post-Disturbance Dynamic Distribution System Restoration with DGs and Mobile Resources
Distributed generations (DGs) can act as emergency power supplies when distribution systems suffer from outages. However, the generation capabilities of DGs are generally limited by a number of factors including weather conditions, fuel limitations, etc. In this context, mobile resources that are able to reallocate resources to desired locations are regarded as important complements to conventional fixed DGs in assisting distribution system restoration. In this paper, a distribution system restoration model with DGs and mobile resources is proposed. Firstly, the dispatch and allocation of mobile resources are modeled with respect to the characteristics of the traffic network. Then the developed mobile resource models are integrated into the distribution system restoration model to co-optimize the scheduling of DGs and mobile resources. Uncertainty factors are managed by a model predictive control approach so that system operators can dynamically adjust the restoration strategy with the up-to-date information. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated through an IEEE 13-bus test system.
distributed generations (DGs)↗
A 100 kW-Class Technology Demonstrator for Space Solar Power
A first step in the development of solar power from space is the flight demonstration of critical technologies. These fundamental technologies include efficient solar power collection and generation, power management and distribution, and thermal management. In addition, the integration and utilization of these technologies into a viable satellite bus could provide an energy-rich platform for a portfolio of payload experiments such as wireless power transmission (WPT). This paper presents the preliminary design of a concept for a 100 kW-class free-flying platform suitable for flight demonstration of technology experiments. Recent space solar power (SSP) studies by NASA have taken a stepping stones approach that lead to the gigawatt systems necessary to cost-effectively deliver power from space. These steps start with a 100 kW-class satellite, leading to a 500 kW and then a 1 MW-class platform. Later steps develop a 100 MW bus that could eventually lead to a 1-2 GW pilot plant for SSP. Our studies have shown that a modular approach is cost effective. Modular designs include individual laser-power-beaming satellites that fly in constellations or that are autonomously assembled into larger structures at geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Microwave power-beamed approaches are also modularized into large numbers of identical units of solar arrays, power converters, or supporting structures for arrays and microwave transmitting antennas. A cost-effective approach to launching these modular units is to use existing Earth-to-orbit (ETO) launch systems, in which the modules are dropped into low Earth orbit (LEO) and then the modules perform their own orbit transfer to GEO using expendable solar arrays to power solar electric thrusters. At GEO, the modules either rendezvous and are assembled robotically into larger platforms, or are deployed into constellations of identical laser power-beaming satellites. Since solar electric propulsion by the modules is cost-effective for both self-transport of the modules from LEO to GEO, and for on-orbit stationkeeping and repositioning capability during the satellite’s lifetime, this technology is also critical in technology development for SSP. The 100 kW-class technology demonstrator will utilize advanced solar power collection and generation technologies, power management and distribution, advanced thermal management, and solar electric propulsion. State-of-the-art solar concentrators, highly efficient multi-junction solar cells, integrated thermal management on the arrays, and innovative deployable structure design and packaging make the 100 kW satellite feasible for launch on one existing launch vehicle. Early SSP studies showed that a major percentage of the on-orbit mass for power-beaming satellites was from massive power converters at the solar arrays, at the bus, at the power transmitter, or at combinations of these locations. Higher voltage mays and power management and distribution (PMAD) systems reduce or eliminate the need for many of these massive power converters, and could enable direct-drive of high-voltage solar electric thrusters. Lightweight, highly efficient thermal management systems are a critical technology that must be developed and flown for SSP feasibility. Large amounts of power on satellites imply that large amounts of waste heat will need to be managed. In addition, several of the more innovative lightweight configurations proposed for SSP satellites take advantage of solar concentrators that are intractable without advanced thermal management technologies for the solar arrays. These thermal management systems include efficient interfaces with the WPT systems or other high-power technology experiments, lightweight deployable radiators that can be easily integrated into satellite buses, and efficient reliable thermal distribution systems that can pipe heat from the technology experiments to the radiators. In addition to demonstrating the integration and use of these mission-critical technologies, the 100 kw-class satellite will provide a large experiment deck for a portfolio of technology experiments. Current plans for this technology demonstrator allow 2000 kg of payload capability and up to 100 kW of power. The technology experiments could include one or more wireless power transmission demonstrations, either to the Earth’s surface or to a suitable space-based receiver. Technology experiments to quantify the on-orbit performance of critical technologies for SSP or space exploration are welcomed. In addition, the technology experiments provide an opportunity for international cooperation, to advance technology readiness levels of SSP technologies that require flight demonstration. This paper will present the preliminary design for a 100 kW solar-powered satellite and a variety of technology experiments that may be suitable for flight demonstration. In addition, a space-to-Earth-surface WPT experiment will be discussed.
Connie Carrington↗
Moduli stabilisation and the statistics of axion physics in the landscape
String theory realisations of the QCD axion are often said to belong to the anthropic window where the decay constant is around the GUT scale and the initial misalignment angle has to be tuned close to zero. In this paper we revisit this statement by studying the statistics of axion physics in the string landscape. We take moduli stabilisation properly into account since the stabilisation of the saxions is crucial to determine the physical properties of the corresponding axionic partners. We focus on the model-independent case of closed string axions in type IIB flux compactifications and find that their decay constants and mass spectrum feature a logarithmic, instead of a power-law, distribution. In the regime where the effective field theory is under control, most of these closed string axions are ultra-light axion-like particles, while axions associated to blow-up modes can naturally play the role of the QCD axion. Hence, the number of type IIB flux vacua with a closed string QCD axion with an intermediate scale decay constant and a natural value of the misalignment angle is only logarithmically suppressed. In a recent paper we found that this correlates also with a logarithmic distribution of the supersymmetry breaking scale, providing the intriguing indication that most, if not all, of the phenomenologically interesting quantities in the string landscape might feature a logarithmic distribution.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Impact of artificial topological changes on flow and transport through fractured media due to mesh resolution
Abstract We performed a set of numerical simulations to characterize the interplay of fracture network topology, upscaling, and mesh refinement on flow and transport properties in fractured porous media. We generated a set of generic three-dimensional discrete fracture networks at various densities, where the radii of the fractures were sampled from a truncated power-law distribution, and whose parameters were loosely based on field site characterizations. We also considered five network densities, which were defined using a dimensionless version of density based on percolation theory. Once the networks were generated, we upscaled them into a single continuum model using the upscaled discrete fracture matrix model presented by Sweeney et al. (2019). We considered steady, isothermal pressure-driven flow through each domain and then simulated conservative, decaying, and adsorbing tracers using a pulse injection into the domain. For each simulation, we calculated the effective permeability and solute breakthrough curves as quantities of interest to compare between network realizations. We found that selecting a mesh resolution such that the global topology of the upscaled mesh matches the fracture network is essential. If the upscaled mesh has a connected pathway of fracture (higher permeability) cells but the fracture network does not, then the estimates for effective permeability and solute breakthrough will be incorrect. False connections cannot be eliminated entirely, but they can be managed by choosing appropriate mesh resolution and refinement for a given network. Adopting octree meshing to obtain sufficient levels of refinement leads to fewer computational cells (up to a 90% reduction in overall cell count) when compared to using a uniform resolution grid and can result in a more accurate continuum representation of the true fracture network.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Sensor/actuator colocation feasibility for distributed damping control using active power modulation
Not Available
O’Brien, John F.↗
Evolution of highly multimodal Rayleigh–Taylor instabilities
Rayleigh–Taylor (RT) instabilities are important fluid instabilities that arise in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) capsule implosions, and many other contexts. Multi-mode coupling is observed in experiments and plays a substantial role in material mix from RT instabilities. In this work, we study the evolution of highly multimodal perturbations (power law distribution) that approximate those found at manufactured material interfaces. We use simulations of over 2000 different perturbations in the LANL code xRAGE to identify distinct phases in the processes of bubble growth and bubble merger which can be visualized in a 2D phase portrait with clear regimes of mode growth and decay. Our results show that the dynamic evolution of the instability strongly depends on the mode of the perturbations and mode interactions. The merger process accelerates bubble growth. A non-Markovian region and a transition of the instability from: (1) initial exponential growth to (2) linear growth and to (3) quadratic growth and asymptotic behavior, are clearly captured in the phase space. We have developed a quantitative model of bubble growth that reproduces the dynamic behavior of ensembles of perturbations. Implications for ICF capsules designed for robustness against instabilities are discussed.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Computational design of microarchitected porous electrodes for redox flow batteries
Porous electrodes are used as the core reactive component across electrochemical technologies. In flowing systems, controlling the fluid distribution, species transport, and reactive environment is critical to attaining high performance. However, conventional electrode materials like felts and papers provide few opportunities for precise engineering of the electrode and its microstructure. To address these limitations, architected electrodes composed of unit cells with spatially varying geometry determined via computational optimization are proposed. Resolved simulation is employed to develop a homogenized description of the constituent unit cells. These effective properties serve as inputs to a continuum model for the electrode when used in the negative half-cell of a vanadium redox flow battery. Porosity distributions minimizing power loss are then determined via computational design optimization to generate architected porosity electrodes. The architected electrodes are compared to bulk, uniform porosity electrodes and found to lead to increased power efficiency across operating flow rates and currents. The design methodology is further used to generate a scaled-up electrode with comparable power efficiency to the bench-scale systems. Finally, the variable porosity architecture and computational design methodology presented here thus offers a novel pathway for automatically generating spatially engineered electrode structures with improved power performance.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Flow Channeling in Fracture Networks: Characterizing the Effect of Density on Preferential Flow Path Formation
Flow channelization is a commonly observed phenomenon in fractured subsurface media where the flow of fluids is restricted primarily to highly transmissive fracture networks surrounded by a low-permeability rock matrix. The multiscale structural heterogeneity of these networks results in multiscale flow channelization where preferential flow paths form at length scales ranging from the entire system down to the subfracture size. We present an analysis of how one of the largest scales in fractured media, the network density, influences the degree of flow channeling that occurs using an ensemble of semigeneric three-dimensional discrete fracture network (DFN) simulations. We construct 10 DFNs, whose fracture lengths follow a power law distribution, at four densities for a total of 40 networks. We characterize their structure in terms of the network topology and geometry. Eulerian and Lagrangian observations of the steady-state flow fields obtained within the networks are used to quantify the degree of flow channelization at the network scale. We introduce a measure for the importance-ranking/hierarchy of different flow paths in the network using graph-based analysis of Lagrangian transport by which the degree of flow channeling between networks is compared. These flow observations are then linked to the structural properties of the networks. In general, network-scale flow channeling decreases as the network density increases. However, at low densities, there is more uniform flow within the entire connected network than in high-density networks. We also demonstrate how standard transport observables can be used to infer the degree of flow channelization occurring within a fracture network.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗