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At least 1,459 records · Page 81

Modeling of High-Temperature Corrosion of Zirconium Alloys Using the eXtended Finite Element Method (X-FEM)

Oxidation modeling in modern nuclear fuel performance codes is currently limited by the lack of coupling with mechanics, thus preventing proper description of how high-temperature oxidation impacts mechanical properties. This is mostly due to the fact that the finite difference formalism adopted in corrosion models is incompatible with the direct coupling with mechanics in the finite element modeling employed in modern nuclear fuel performance codes. In this study, a physically based zirconium alloy corrosion model called the Coupled-Current Charge Compensation (C4) model, which was initially developed for operating temperature conditions, has been updated to include high-temperature corrosion in order to provide additional critical information (e.g., oxygen concentration profile) under loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions—information lacking in existing empirical models. The C4 model was implemented in the MOOSE finite-element framework developed at Idaho National Laboratory, enabling it to be used in the BISON nuclear fuel performance code based on the MOOSE framework. To precisely track the different interfaces at a relatively low computational cost, the eXtended Finite Element Method (X-FEM) was applied in MOOSE. The model’s results were compared to those of existing empirical models as well as metallographic analysis of high-temperature oxidized Zircaloy-4 coupons. Oxygen diffusivities in the a and ß phases resulting from this comparison closely agree with those found in the literature. The C4 model implemented with X-FEM in MOOSE now has the capability to accurately predict oxide, oxygen-stabilized a, and prior ß phase layer growth kinetics under isothermal exposure at high temperature (1000–1500°C). Furthermore, in contrast with the empirical models, the C4 model accounts for the finite thickness of the fuel cladding. It can predict the oxygen concentration profile evolution through the whole cladding, enabling evaluation of the remaining ductile thickness—a crucial variable for modeling the mechanical behavior of the fuel cladding under LOCA. Furthermore, this implementation allows direct coupling with mechanics, at a low computing cost, using finite-element-based nuclear fuel performance codes such as BISON.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Experiments and simulations of isochorically heated warm dense carbon foam at the Texas Petawatt Laser

An experimental and simulation study of warm dense carbon foams at ambient density (n e ~10 21 cm –3 ) is presented. This study of isochorically heated foams is motivated by their potential application in carbon-atmosphere white-dwarf envelopes, where there are modeling uncertainties due to the equation of state. The foams are heated on an approximately picosecond time scale with a laser-accelerated proton beam. The cooling and expansion of the heated foams can be modeled with appropriately initialized radiation-hydrodynamics codes; xRAGE code is used in this work. The primary experimental diagnostic is the streaked optical pyrometer, which images a narrow band of radiation from the rear surface of the heated material. Presented are xRAGE modeling results for both solid aluminum targets and carbonized resorcinol-formaldehyde foam targets, showing that the foam appears to cool slowly on the pyrometer because of partial transparency. So that simulations of cooling foam are processed properly, it is necessary to account for finite optical depth in the photosphere calculation, and the methods for performing that calculation are presented in depth.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

1D Modeling for the Development of a Digital Twin for Hydropower Systems with Applications for a Testing Rig

Modeling and simulation constitute two important parts in constructing a sensible digital twin to mimic the dynamics of hydropower systems. Because of the physical nature of a hydropower system, the basic modeling should cover the water flow systems from the reservoir to the penstock (inlet water pipes), penstock to hydro turbine, and hydro turbine to generator and from the linkage of the hydropower systems to the grid. This report describes initial attempts to model these dynamic components, including the formulation of the linearized state space model for hydro turbine systems using the well-known six-coefficients linearization method and the formulation of the voltage and power dynamical models of a synchronous generator. To validate the accuracy of the proposed model, data collected from Norwegian University of Science and Technology were used to obtain relevant parameters for the model, and the desired simulation results were obtained. Additionally, neural network modeling and learning were also developed and applied to model the generation torque and water flow rate subsystems to demonstrate a potential learning scheme, which can be used in the development of a digital twin.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Predicting encapsulant delamination in photovoltaic modules bridging photochemical reaction kinetics and fracture mechanics

Abstract Photovoltaic (PV) modules are subjected to environmental stressors (UV exposure, temperature, and humidity) that cause degradation within the encapsulant and its interfaces with adjacent glass and cell substrates. To save experimental time and to enable long‐term assessment with intensive degradation only taking place after many years, the development of predictive models is indispensable. Previous works have modeled the delamination of the ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) encapsulant/glass and encapsulant/cell interfaces under field aging conditions with fundamental photochemical degradation reactions that lead to molecular scission and loss of interfacial adhesion, characterized by the fracture resistance, G c . However, these models were fundamentally limited in that the following aspects were not incorporated: (i) molecular crosslinking in the field, (ii) synergistic autocatalytic interactions of degradation mechanisms, (iii) connection between degraded encapsulant structure and its mechanical properties, and (iv) rigorous treatment of the plasticity contribution to G c with finite element models. Here, we present a time‐dependent multiscale model that addresses these limitations and is applicable to a wide range of encapsulants and interfaces. For the reference EVA encapsulant and its interfaces with the glass and cell, the presented model predicts an initial rise in G c in the first 3 years of field aging from crosslinking, then a subsequent sharp decline from degradation mechanisms. We used nanoindentation to measure the changes in EVA mechanical properties over exposure time to tune the model parameters. The model predictions of G c and mechanical properties match with experimental data and show an improvement compared to previous models. The model can even predict switches in failure interfaces, such as the observed EVA/cell to EVA/glass transition. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis study by varying the degradation and crosslinking kinetic parameters to demonstrate their effects on G c . Model extensions to polyolefin elastomer‐ and silicone‐encapsulants and their interfaces are also demonstrated.

Liu, Kuan↗

An overview of the Energy Modeling Forum 33rd study: Assessing large-scale global bioenergy deployment for managing climate change

Previous studies have projected a significant role for bioenergy in decarbonizing the global economy and helping realize international climate goals such as limiting global average warming to 2°C or 1.5°C. However, with significant variability in bioenergy results and significant concerns about potential environmental and social implications, greater transparency and dedicated assessment of the underlying modeling and results and more detailed understanding of the potential role of bioenergy are needed. Stanford University’s Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) initiated a 33rd study (EMF-33) to explore the viability of large-scale bioenergy as part of a comprehensive climate management strategy. This special issue presents the papers of the EMF-33 study—a multi-year inter-model comparison project designed to understand and assess global, long-run, biomass supply and bioenergy deployment potentials and related uncertainties. Using a novel scenario design with independent biomass supply and bioenergy demand protocols, EMF-33 separately elucidates and explores the modeling of biomass feedstock supplies and bioenergy technologies and their deployment—revealing, comparing, and assessing the modeling that is suggesting that bioenergy could be a key climate containment strategy. This introduction provides an overview of the EMF-33 study design and the overview, thematic, and individual modeling team papers and types of insights that make up this special issue. By providing enhanced transparency and new detailed insights, we hope to inform policy dialogue about the potential role of bioenergy and facilitate new research.

Rose, Steven K.↗

Quantification of uncertainties in coupled material degradation processes - High temperature, fatigue and creep

This paper describes the development of methodology that provides for quantification of uncertainties in lifetime strength of aerospace materials subjected to a number of diverse effects. A probabilistic material degradation model, in the form of a randomized multifactor interaction equation, has been postulated for lifetime strength degradation of structural components of aerospace propulsion systems. The model includes effects that typically reduce lifetime strength and may include temperature, mechanical fatigue, creep and others. The paper also includes the analysis of experimental data from the open literature for Inconel 718. These data are used to provide an initial check for model validity, as well as for calibration of the model's empirical material constants. The model validity check and calibration is carried out for three effects, namely, high temperature, mechanical fatigue and creep.

Boyce, L.↗

Empirical Storm-Time Correction to the International Reference Ionosphere Model E-Region Electron and Ion Density Parameterizations Using Observations from TIMED/SABER

The response of the ionospheric E-region to solar-geomagnetic storms can be characterized using observations of infrared 4.3 micrometers emission. In particular, we utilize nighttime TIMED/SABER measurements of broadband 4.3 micrometers limb emission and derive a new data product, the NO+(v) volume emission rate, which is our primary observation-based quantity for developing an empirical storm-time correction the IRI E-region electron density. In this paper we describe our E-region proxy and outline our strategy for developing the empirical storm model. In our initial studies, we analyzed a six day storm period during the Halloween 2003 event. The results of this analysis are promising and suggest that the ap-index is a viable candidate to use as a magnetic driver for our model.

Mertens, Christoper J.↗

Adult weight change and premenopausal breast cancer risk: A prospective pooled analysis of data from 628,463 women

Early-adulthood body size is strongly inversely associated with risk of premenopausal breast cancer. It is unclear whether subsequent changes in weight affect risk. We pooled individual-level data from 17 prospective studies to investigate the association of weight change with premenopausal breast cancer risk, considering strata of initial weight, timing of weight change, other breast cancer risk factors and breast cancer subtype. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were obtained using Cox regression. Among 628,463 women, 10,886 were diagnosed with breast cancer before menopause. Models adjusted for initial weight at ages 18–24 years and other breast cancer risk factors showed that weight gain from ages 18–24 to 35–44 or to 45–54 years was inversely associated with breast cancer overall (e.g., HR per 5 kg to ages 45–54: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.95–0.98) and with oestrogen-receptor(ER)-positive breast cancer (HR per 5 kg to ages 45–54: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.94–0.98). Weight gain from ages 25–34 was inversely associated with ER-positive breast cancer only and weight gain from ages 35–44 was not associated with risk. None of these weight gains were associated with ER-negative breast cancer. Weight loss was not consistently associated with overall or ER-specific risk after adjusting for initial weight. Weight increase from early-adulthood to ages 45–54 years is associated with a reduced premenopausal breast cancer risk independently of early-adulthood weight. Biological explanations are needed to account for these two separate factors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

How initial conditions-, structural-, and parameter-based model uncertainty interact and influence predictions in permafrost ecosystems: Modeling Archive

This dataset contains model output and input data, as well as source code examples for the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model with the Dynamic Vegetation Model and Dynamic Organic Soil (DVM-DOS-TEM) for the field sites Imnavait creek and the Bonanza creek Long Term Ecological Research Network (LTER). The data covers simulations from the last glacial maximum (LGM) until 2100 for a selection of paleo scenarios, setting the mean temperature of the LGM up to 10°C lower than pre-industrial conditions. The model structure was modulated to represent various model versions, and this dataset contains the relevant changes in the source code. The raw output data, the processed statistical data, the setup and processing scripts as well as parameter value distribution files from a parameter sensitivity analysis are included as well. Model outputs include active layer depth, organic soil carbon, soil layer depths, gross primary productivity (GPP) with and without nitrogen limitation, net primary productivity (NPP), soil liquid water content, heterotrophic, maintenance, and growth respiration, soil temperature, and vegetation carbon (*.nc files). The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Initial use of Nek5000/Cardinal to improve closure models in Pronghorn

Heat transfer coefficient closure models for pebble bed reactors are built using a data-driven approach by leveraging the capabilities of an Evolutionary Algorithm entitled Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). In the present work, the Computational Fluid Dynamics code nekRS was used in order to collect the high-fidelity flow data for a core with 1,568 pebbles. To characterize the heat transfer, multiple concentric regions were considered to extract the physical quantities of interest, e.g./ the Reynolds number. The PSO algorithm is employed as part of an inverse problem targeting determine what are the coefficients for a Nusselt number correlation to match the collected data. Such correlation should follow any given format that is defined a priori. Finally, two correlations are proposed, one with an implicit dependence on the pebbles’ wall temperatures and another expressed as a fully explicit correlation depending on the flow conditions and the position within the core. Anyway, given the generic nature of the proposed approach, correlations following different formats could be tested. Preliminary results for the high-fidelity simulation of a fast MSR core are presented. The target Reynolds number is currently 20K, with the expectation that this will increase, pending the availability of further computational resources. These simulations will be used to inform lower fidelity models, including a coarse CFD turbulence model in Pronghorn. Additionally, they will serve as a reference for the RANS models in Nek5000/NekRS.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Interactive initialization of heat flux parameters for numerical models using satellite temperature measurements

Day/night Heat Capacity Mapping Mission image pairs over Kansas and Indiana were used to examine the spatial variation of moisture availability on the mesoscale. Of particular concern was whether patterns of moisture availability and thermal inertia, as well as surface heat fluxes, respond to significant spatial variations in the rainfall pattern. A temperature analysis for the Indiana case is presented.

Carlson, T. N.↗

Interactive initialization of heat flux parameters for numerical models using satellite temperature measurements

Efforts were made (1) to bring the image processing and boundary layer model operation into a completely interactive mode and (2) to test a method for determining the surface energy budget and surface moisture availability and thermal inertia on a scale appreciably larger than that of the city. A region a few hundred kilometers on a side centered over southern Indiana was examined.

Carlson, T. N.↗

Interactive initialization of heat flux parameters for numerical models using satellite temperature measurements

A method for obtaining patterns of moisture availability (and net evaporation) from satellite infrared measurements employs Carlson's boundary layer model and a variety of image processing routines executed by a minicomputer. To test the method with regard to regional scale moisture analyses, two case studies were chosen because of the availability of HCMM data and because of the presence of a large horizontal gradient in antecedent precipitation and crp moisture index. Results show some correlation in both cases between antecedent precipitation and derived moisture availability. Apparently, regional-scale moisture availability patterns can be determined with some degree of fidelity but the values themselves may be useful only in the relative sense and significant to within plus or minus one category of dryness over a range of 4 or 5 categories between absolutely dry and field saturation. Preliminary results suggest that the derived moisture values correlate best with longer-term precipitation totals, suggesting that the infrared temperatures respond more sensitively to a relatively deep substrate layer.

Carlson, T. N.↗

High Order And High Resolution Methods For a Model CAA Problem

The initial value problem for the first order linear wave equation in one space dimension is treated for two cases with specified initial data and grid, and data from solutions at t = 400 and t = 800 are presented, as prescribed for Problem 1 in Category 1. Results are shown from computations with a sequence of recently developed high order and high resolution methods which combine Hermite interpolation, Cauchy-Kowaleskya recursion for time derivatives, and Taylor series time advancement. These methods have the same order of accuracy in time as in space. Results are shown from methods that range from third to nineteenth order. The stated problems with the prescribed coarse grid can be simulated with errors that are at the level of machine accuracy if the method is sufficiently high order. In addition, the growth of the maximum absolute error out to t = 100,000 is given for simulations with the stated problem data.

Goodrich, John W.↗

Winter QPF Sensitivities to Snow Parameterizations and Comparisons to NASA CloudSat Observations

Steady increases in computing power have allowed for numerical weather prediction models to be initialized and run at high spatial resolution, permitting a transition from larger scale parameterizations of the effects of clouds and precipitation to the simulation of specific microphysical processes and hydrometeor size distributions. Although still relatively coarse in comparison to true cloud resolving models, these high resolution forecasts (on the order of 4 km or less) have demonstrated value in the prediction of severe storm mode and evolution and are being explored for use in winter weather events . Several single-moment bulk water microphysics schemes are available within the latest release of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model suite, including the NASA Goddard Cumulus Ensemble, which incorporate some assumptions in the size distribution of a small number of hydrometeor classes in order to predict their evolution, advection and precipitation within the forecast domain. Although many of these schemes produce similar forecasts of events on the synoptic scale, there are often significant details regarding precipitation and cloud cover, as well as the distribution of water mass among the constituent hydrometeor classes. Unfortunately, validating data for cloud resolving model simulations are sparse. Field campaigns require in-cloud measurements of hydrometeors from aircraft in coordination with extensive and coincident ground based measurements. Radar remote sensing is utilized to detect the spatial coverage and structure of precipitation. Here, two radar systems characterize the structure of winter precipitation for comparison to equivalent features within a forecast model: a 3 GHz, Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) based in Omaha, Nebraska, and the 94 GHz NASA CloudSat Cloud Profiling Radar, a spaceborne instrument and member of the afternoon or "A-Train" of polar orbiting satellites tasked with cataloguing global cloud characteristics. Each system provides a unique perspective. The WSR-88D operates in a surveillance mode, sampling cloud volumes of Rayleigh scatterers where reflectivity is proportional to the sixth moment of the size distribution of equivalent spheres. The CloudSat radar provides enhanced sensitivity to smaller cloud ice crystals aloft, as well as consistent vertical profiles along each orbit. However, CloudSat reflectivity signatures are complicated somewhat by resonant Mie scattering effects and significant attenuation in the presence of cloud or rain water. Here, both radar systems are applied to a case of light to moderate snowfall within the warm frontal zone of a cold season, synoptic scale storm. Radars allow for an evaluation of the accuracy of a single-moment scheme in replicating precipitation structures, based on the bulk statistical properties of precipitation as suggested by reflectivity signatures.

Molthan, Andrew↗