Exploiting OMI NO 2 satellite observations to infer fossil-fuel CO 2 emissions from U.S. megacities
Fossil-fuel CO 2 emissions and their trends in eight U.S. megacities during 2006–2017 are inferred by combining satellite-derived NO X emissions with bottom-up city-specific NO X -to-CO 2 emission ratios. A statistical model is fit to a collection NO 2 plumes observed from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), and is used to calculate top-down NO X emissions. Decreases in OMI-derived NO X emissions are observed across the eight cities from 2006 to 2017 (-17% in Miami to -58% in Los Angeles), and are generally consistent with long-term trends of bottom-up inventories (-25% in Miami to -49% in Los Angeles), but there are some interannual discrepancies. City-specific NO X -to-CO 2 emission ratios, used to calculate inferred CO 2 , are estimated through annual bottom-up inventories of NO X and CO 2 emissions disaggregated to 1 × 1 km 2 resolution. Over the study period, NO X -to-CO 2 emission ratios have decreased by ~40% nationwide (-24% to -51% for our studied cities), which is attributed to a faster reduction in NO X when compared to CO 2 due to policy regulations and fuel type shifts. Combining top-down NO X emissions and bottom-up NO X -to-CO 2 emission ratios, annual fossil-fuel CO 2 emissions are derived. Inferred OMI-based top-down CO 2 emissions trends vary between +7% in Dallas to -31% in Phoenix. For 2017, we report annual fossil-fuel CO 2 emissions to be: Los Angeles 113 ± 49 Tg/yr; New York City 144 ± 62 Tg/yr; and Chicago 55 ± 24 Tg/yr. A study in the Los Angeles area, using independent methods, reported a 2013–2016 average CO 2 emissions rate of 104 Tg/yr and 120 Tg/yr, which suggests that the CO 2 emissions from our method are in good agreement with other studies' top-down estimates. Lastly, we anticipate future remote sensing instruments – with better spatial and temporal resolution – will better constrain the NO X -to-CO 2 ratio and reduce the uncertainty in our method.