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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian Optimal Sensor Augmentation Via Estimated Mutual Information

We consider the problem of designing a sensor network to most efficiently locate the source of a seismic event. The left panel of Figure 1 shows 982 possible sensor locations in a region of interest. The objective is to infer the unknown location of an earthquake, indicated by the gold dot for illustration purposes. Assume that three sensors have already been placed for data collection. Travel times of the P-wave from the source to the three sensors are observed and used to infer the unknown source location via a Bayesian statistical model described subsequently. The right panel of Figure 1 shows samples from the resulting posterior distribution for source location along with a posterior estimate of this location.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Formal Experimentation and Analysis of Handheld RFID Readers as a Tool for Nuclear Material Accounting

Commercial, off-the-shelf Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) systems have been successfully deployed for inventory tracking in numerous industries, but their viability in the tracking of complex environments containing nuclear material is less understood. Of primary interest in this setting is a RFID tracking system for nuclear material accounting which can reliably identify as many tags as possible with high accuracy, while also reducing an operator’s exposure to radiation. In this work, we develop a formal statistical approach to identify relevant handheld RFID reader settings which optimize tagging performance. To achieve this goal, we design a full factorial split-plot experiment for a static shelf configuration scene with 50 randomly placed nuclear material containers affixed with RFID tags. We use Bayesian inference to fit a second-order response surface model which expresses the probability of a successful match for each container as a function of the experimental factors. Such effects are allowed to vary across individual containers and the containers’ population in its entirety to estimate overall effects. Uncertainties of estimates and predictions are quantified via their corresponding posterior distributions. Following extensive model checking and validation, the fitted model is used to identify experimental factors which maximize matching probabilities at both the container-level and for the full shelf configuration scene. We also analyze sensitivity of performance to relevant factors.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Population-level Dark Energy Constraints from Strong Gravitational Lensing using Simulation-Based Inference

In this work, we present a scalable approach for inferring the dark energy equation-of-state parameter ($w$) from a population of strong gravitational lens images using Simulation-Based Inference (SBI). Strong gravitational lensing offers crucial insights into cosmology, but traditional Monte Carlo methods for cosmological inference are computationally prohibitive and inadequate for processing the thousands of lenses anticipated from future cosmic surveys. New tools for inference, such as SBI using Neural Ratio Estimation (NRE), address this challenge effectively. By training a machine learning model on simulated data of strong lenses, we can learn the likelihood-to-evidence ratio for robust inference. Our scalable approach enables more constrained population-level inference of $w$ compared to individual lens analysis, constraining $w$ to within $1\sigma$.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2017

Multiwavelength Characterization of an ACT-selected, Lensed Dusty Star-forming Galaxy at z = 2.64

We present C i(2–1) and multi-transition {sup 12}CO observations of a dusty star-forming galaxy, ACT J2029+0120, which we spectroscopically confirm to lie at z = 2.64. We detect CO(3–2), CO(5–4), CO(7–6), CO(8–7), and C i(2–1) at high significance, tentatively detect HCO{sup +}(4–3), and place strong upper limits on the integrated strength of dense gas tracers (HCN(4–3) and CS(7–6)). Multi-transition CO observations and dense gas tracers can provide valuable constraints on the molecular gas content and excitation conditions in high-redshift galaxies. We therefore use this unique data set to construct a CO spectral line energy distribution (SLED) of the source, which is most consistent with that of a ULIRG/Seyfert or QSO host object in the taxonomy of the Herschel Comprehensive ULIRG Emission Survey. We employ RADEX models to fit the peak of the CO SLED, inferring a temperature of T ∼ 117 K and n{sub H{sub 2}}∼10{sup 5} cm{sup −3}, most consistent with a ULIRG/QSO object and the presence of high-density tracers. We also find that the velocity width of the C i line is potentially larger than seen in all CO transitions for this object, and that the L{sub C i(2−1)}{sup ′}/L{sub CO(3−2)}{sup ′} ratio is also larger than seen in other lensed and unlensed submillimeter galaxies and QSO hosts; if confirmed, this anomaly could be an effect of differential lensing of a shocked molecular outflow.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Joint Modeling of Quasar Variability and Accretion Disk Reprocessing Using Latent Stochastic Differential Equations

Quasars are bright active galactic nuclei powered by the accretion of matter around supermassive black holes at the center of galaxies. Their stochastic brightness variability depends on the physical properties of the accretion disk and black hole. The upcoming Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) is expected to observe tens of millions of quasars, so there is a need for efficient techniques like machine learning that can handle the large volume of data. Quasar variability is believed to be driven by an X-ray corona, which is reprocessed by the accretion disk and emitted as UV/optical variability. We are the first to introduce an auto-differentiable simulation of the accretion disk and reprocessing. We use the simulation as a direct component of our neural network to jointly model the driving variability and reprocessing, trained with supervised learning on simulated LSST-like 10 yr quasar light curves. We encode the light curves using a transformer encoder, and the driving variability is reconstructed using latent stochastic differential equations, a physically motivated generative deep learning method that can model continuous-time stochastic dynamics. By embedding the physical processes of the driving signal and reprocessing into our network, we achieve a model that is more robust and interpretable. We demonstrate that our model outperforms a Gaussian process regression baseline and can infer accretion disk parameters and time delays between wave bands, even for out-of-distribution driving signals. Our approach provides a powerful framework that can be adapted to solve other inverse problems in multivariate time series.

Fagin, Joshua [City Univ. of New York (CUNY), NY (↗
DOE OSTI2021

Extract useful information from building permits data to profile a city’s building retrofit history

Building retrofit is one of the key strategies for cities to reduce energy use and GHG emissions. The historical information about changes to buildings is crucial to infer the buildings’ current energy system efficiency levels and to identify candidate buildings for retrofit. In general, a building permit is required before the start of any construction activity of a building, such as changing building structure, remodeling, or installing new equipment. Moreover, many large cities provide public datasets of building permits in history. Therefore, the permits are a potentially good resource for mining information on the city’s retrofit history. In this study, we use the permit dataset from the city of San Francisco as a case study. Location and time information from the dataset is also used to depict the retrofit timeline of each building and the whole building stock. The type of work of the permit is inferred from the descriptive text by a machine learning model. At last, the limitations of the current permit dataset and potential improvements on the permit data management are discussed to better utilize the information in the future.

Zhang, Wanni↗
DOE OSTI2016

INFERRING GRAVITATIONAL POTENTIALS FROM MASS DENSITIES IN CLUSTER-SIZED HALOS

We use N-body simulations to quantify how the escape velocity in cluster-sized halos maps to the gravitational potential in a ΛCDM universe. Using spherical density-potential pairs and the Poisson equation, we find that the matter density inferred gravitational potential profile predicts the escape velocity profile to within a few percent accuracy for group and cluster-sized halos (10{sup 13}<M{sub 200}<10{sup 15} M {sub ⊙}, with respect to the critical density). The accuracy holds from just outside the core to beyond the virial radius. We show the importance of explicitly incorporating a cosmological constant when inferring the potential from the Poisson equation. We consider three density models and find that the Einasto and Gamma profiles provide a better joint estimate of the density and potential profiles than the Navarro, Frenk, and White profile, which fails to accurately represent the escape velocity. For individual halos, the 1σ scatter between the measured escape velocity and the density-inferred potential profile is small (<5%). Finally, while the sub-halos show 15% biases in their representation of the particle velocity dispersion profile, the sub-halo escape velocity profile matches the dark matter escape velocity profile to high accuracy with no evidence of velocity bias outside 0.4r {sub 200}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Correcting for Selection Biases in the Determination of the Hubble Constant from Time-Delay Cosmography

The time delay between multiple images of strongly lensed quasars has been used to infer the Hubble constant. The primary systematic uncertainty for time-delay cosmography is the mass-sheet transform (MST), which preserves the lensing observables while altering the inferred ⁠H 0 . The TDCOSMO collaboration used velocity dispersion measurements of lensed quasars and lensed galaxies to infer that mass sheets are present, which decrease the inferred H 0 by 8 per cent. Here, we test the assumption that the density profiles of galaxy–galaxy and galaxy–quasar lenses are the same. We use a composite star-plus-dark-matter mass profile for the parent deflector population and model the selection function for galaxy–galaxy and galaxy–quasar lenses. We find that a power-law density profile with an MST is a good approximation to a two-component mass profile around the Einstein radius, but we find that galaxy–galaxy lenses have systematically higher mass-sheet components than galaxy–quasar lenses. For individual systems, λ int correlates with the ratio of the half-light radius and Einstein radius of the lens. By propagating these results through the TDCOSMO hierarchical inference code, we find that H 0 is lowered by a further 3 per cent. Using a more recent measurement of velocity dispersions and our fiducial model for selection biases, we infer H 0 = 66 ± 4 (stat) ± 1 (model sys) ± 2 (measurement sys) km s -1 Mpc -1 for the TDCOSMO plus SLACS data set. The first residual systematic error is due to plausible alternative choices in modelling the selection function, and the second is an estimate of the remaining systematic error in the measurement of velocity dispersions for SLACS lenses. Accurate time-delay cosmography requires precise velocity dispersion measurements and accurate calibration of selection biases.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sequential spectral line analysis for accurate density and temperature diagnosis of laboratory opacity measurements

The accuracy of iron opacity calculated in stellar interiors has been questioned since the discovery of the “solar problem” and the discrepancies between the measured and modeled iron opacity reported in 2015. Experimental opacity benchmarks require accurate temperature and density measurements, which were inferred by analyzing tracer magnesium spectra in those experiments. Could the observed discrepancy be explained by insufficient accuracy in the inferred temperature, density, and their uncertainties? Previous analyses may have yielded biased results due to three limitations: (1) simultaneous multi-line fitting, (2) approximations in line-shape models, and (3) exclusion of certain spectral lines due to insufficient background characterization. Notably, the first issue is a common concern for many inversion methods, including Bayesian inferences. We present a refined analysis method that overcomes these limitations, applied to three categories of iron opacity experiments (Anchor 1, 2, and 3). In particular, the sequential fitting method yields unbiased results with more realistic uncertainties by accounting for line inconsistencies in the parameter uncertainties. The average electron temperature and density values are 162 ± 6 eV and (7.0 ± 1.9) × 10 21 cm −3 for six Anchor 1 experiments, 189 ± 7 eV and (3.4 ± 0.3) × 10 22 cm −3 for 21 Anchor 2 experiments, and 201 ± 6 eV and (4.8 ± 1.1) × 10 22 cm −3 for nine Anchor 3 experiments. These results show ∼4% temperature and ∼20% density reproducibility over a decade, which also aligns with the inferred parameter uncertainties. In conclusion, the resulting temperature and density uncertainties lead to a quasi-continuum iron opacity variation of ±4%–7% for wavelengths below 9.5 Å, which is insufficient to explain the significant model-data discrepancies reported in 2015.

Absorption spectroscopy↗
DOE OSTI2023

HOLISMOKES IX. Neural network inference of strong-lens parameters and uncertainties from ground-based images

Modeling of strong gravitational lenses is a necessity for further applications in astrophysics and cosmology. With the large number of detections in current and upcoming surveys, such as the Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), it is pertinent to investigate automated and fast analysis techniques beyond the traditional and time-consuming Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods. Building upon our (simple) convolutional neural network (CNN), we present here another CNN, specifically a residual neural network (ResNet), that predicts the five mass parameters of a singular isothermal ellipsoid (SIE) profile (lens center x and y, ellipticity e x and e y , Einstein radius θ E ) and the external shear (γ ext, 1 , γ ext, 2 ) from ground-based imaging data. In contrast to our previous CNN, this ResNet further predicts the 1σ uncertainty for each parameter. To train our network, we use our improved pipeline to simulate lens images using real images of galaxies from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Survey (HSC) and from the Hubble Ultra Deep Field as lens galaxies and background sources, respectively. We find very good recoveries overall for the SIE parameters, especially for the lens center in comparison to our previous CNN, while significant differences remain in predicting the external shear. From our multiple tests, it appears that most likely the low ground-based image resolution is the limiting factor in predicting the external shear. Given the run time of milli-seconds per system, our network is perfectly suited to quickly predict the next appearing image and time delays of lensed transients. Therefore, we use the network-predicted mass model to estimate these quantities and compare to those values obtained from our simulations. Unfortunately, the achieved precision allows only a first-order estimate of time delays on real lens systems and requires further refinement through follow-up modeling. Nonetheless, our ResNet is able to predict the SIE and shear parameter values in fractions of a second on a single CPU, meaning that we are able to efficiently process the huge amount of galaxy-scale lenses expected in the near future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improvement and generalization of ABCD method with Bayesian inference

To find New Physics or to refine our knowledge of the Standard Model at the LHC is an enterprise that involves many factors, such as the capabilities and the performance of the accelerator and detectors, the use and exploitation of the available information, the design of search strategies and observables, as well as the proposal of new models. We focus on the use of the information and pour our effort in re-thinking the usual data-driven ABCD method to improve it and to generalize it using Bayesian Machine Learning techniques and tools. We propose that a dataset consisting of a signal and many backgrounds is well described through a mixture model. Signal, backgrounds and their relative fractions in the sample can be well extracted by exploiting the prior knowledge and the dependence between the different observables at the event-by-event level with Bayesian tools. We show how, in contrast to the ABCD method, one can take advantage of understanding some properties of the different backgrounds and of having more than two independent observables to measure in each event. In addition, instead of regions defined through hard cuts, the Bayesian framework uses the information of continuous distribution to obtain soft-assignments of the events which are statistically more robust. To compare both methods we use a toy problem inspired by pp\to hh\to b\bar b b \bar b p p → h h → b b ‾ b b ‾ , selecting a reduced and simplified number of processes and analysing the flavor of the four jets and the invariant mass of the jet-pairs, modeled with simplified distributions. Taking advantage of all this information, and starting from a combination of biased and agnostic priors, leads us to a very good posterior once we use the Bayesian framework to exploit the data and the mutual information of the observables at the event-by-event level. We show how, in this simplified model, the Bayesian framework outperforms the ABCD method sensitivity in obtaining the signal fraction in scenarios with 1% and 0.5% true signal fractions in the dataset. We also show that the method is robust against the absence of signal. We discuss potential prospects for taking this Bayesian data-driven paradigm into more realistic scenarios.

Alvarez, Ezequiel↗
DOE OSTI2020

ROM-Based Surrogate Systems Modeling of EBR-II

We report the System Analysis Module (SAM), developed and maintained by Argonne National Laboratory, is designed to provide whole-plant transient safety analysis capabilities for a number of advanced non-light water reactors, including sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR), lead-cooled fast reactor (LFR), and molten salt reactor (MSR)/fluoride-salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (FHR) designs. SAM is primarily constructed as a systems-level analysis tool, with the potential to incorporate reduced order models from three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations to improve characterization of complex, multidimensional physics. It is recognized that the computational expense associated with CFD can be intractable for various engineering analyses, such as uncertainty quantification, inference, and design optimization. This paper explores the reducibility of a SAM model using recent advances in randomized linear algebra techniques, which attempt to find recurring patterns in the various realizations generated by a model after randomly perturbing all its input parameters. The reduction is described in terms of fewer degrees of freedom (DOFs), referred to as the active DOFs, for the model variables such as input model parameters and model responses. The results indicate that there is significant room for additional reduction that may be leveraged for additional computational gains when employing SAM for engineering-intensive analyses that require repeated model executions. Different from physics-based reduction approaches, the proposed approach allows one to estimate upper bounds on the reduction errors, which are rigorously developed in this work. Finally, different methods for surrogate model construction, such as regression and neural network-based training, are employed to correlate the input and output active DOFs, which are related back to the original variables using matrix-based linear transformations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Aerosol Properties of the Atmospheres of Extrasolar Giant Planets

We use a model of aerosol microphysics to investigate the impact of high-altitude photochemical aerosols on the transmission spectra and atmospheric properties of close-in exoplanets, such as HD 209458 b and HD 189733 b. The results depend strongly on the temperature profiles in the middle and upper atmospheres, which are poorly understood. Nevertheless, our model of HD 189733 b, based on the most recently inferred temperature profiles, produces an aerosol distribution that matches the observed transmission spectrum. We argue that the hotter temperature of HD 209458 b inhibits the production of high-altitude aerosols and leads to the appearance of a clearer atmosphere than on HD 189733 b. The aerosol distribution also depends on the particle composition, photochemical production, and atmospheric mixing. Due to degeneracies among these inputs, current data cannot constrain the aerosol properties in detail. Instead, our work highlights the role of different factors in controlling the aerosol distribution that will prove useful in understanding different observations, including those from future missions. For the atmospheric mixing efficiency suggested by general circulation models, we find that the aerosol particles are small (∼nm) and probably spherical. We further conclude that a composition based on complex hydrocarbons (soots) is the most likely candidate to survive the high temperatures in hot-Jupiter atmospheres. Such particles would have a significant impact on the energy balance of HD 189733 b’s atmosphere and should be incorporated in future studies of atmospheric structure. We also evaluate the contribution of external sources to photochemical aerosol formation and find that their spectral signature is not consistent with observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Bayesian optimal experiments for uncertain biochemical pathway models

Abstract Pharmacodynamic (PD) models are mathematical models of cellular reaction networks that include drug mechanisms of action. These models are useful for studying predictive therapeutic outcomes of novel drug therapies in silico. However, PD models are known to possess significant uncertainty with respect to constituent parameter data, leading to uncertainty in the model predictions. Furthermore, experimental data to calibrate these models is often limited or unavailable for novel pathways. In this study, we present a Bayesian optimal experimental design approach for improving PD model prediction accuracy. We then apply our method using simulated experimental data to account for uncertainty in hypothetical laboratory measurements. This leads to a probabilistic prediction of drug performance and a quantitative measure of which prospective laboratory experiment will optimally reduce prediction uncertainty in the PD model. The methods proposed here provide a way forward for uncertainty quantification and guided experimental design for models of novel biological pathways.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Direct detection of dark matter substructure in strong lens images with convolutional neural networks

Strong gravitational lensing is a potential way of uncovering the nature of dark matter, by finding perturbations to images that cannot be accounted for well by modeling the lens galaxy without additional structure, be it subhalos (smaller halos within the smooth lens) or line-of-sight (LOS) halos. Here, we introduce results attempting to infer the presence of substructure from images without requiring an intermediate step in which a smooth model has to be subtracted, using a simple convolutional neural network (CNN). We find that the network is only able to infer the presence of subhalos with greater than 75% accuracy when they have masses of greater than or equal to 5 × 10 9 M ⊙ if they lie within the main lens galaxy. Since less massive foreground LOS halos can have the same effect as higher-mass subhalos, the CNN can probe lower masses in the halo mass function. The accuracy does not improve significantly if we add a population of less massive subhalos. With the expectation of experiments such as Hubble Space Telescope and Euclid yielding thousands of high-quality strong lensing images in the next years, having a way of analyzing images quickly to identify candidates that merit further analysis to determine individual subhalo properties while preventing extensive resources being used for images that would yield null detections could be very useful. By understanding the sensitivity as a function of substructure mass, nondetections could be combined with the information from images with substructure to constrain the cold dark matter scenario, in particular if the sensitivity can be pushed to lower masses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Two key features influencing community assembly processes at regional scale: Initial state and degree of change in environmental conditions

Belowground microbial communities strongly influence ecosystem function such that predicting function may rely on understanding ecological processes that assemble communities. Uncertainty remains, however, in what governs the relative contributions of different ecological processes. To help fill this knowledge gap we test the general hypothesis that both initial state and degree of change in environmental conditions govern the relative contributions of different ecological assembly processes. To do so we leveraged regional-scale nutrient and organic matter addition experiments and used soil organic matter (SOM) as a proxy of integrated soil environmental conditions. Consistent with our hypothesis, we found that both the initial amount of SOM and the degree of change in SOM—in response to nutrient addition—influenced the relative contributions of different ecological assembly processes. These influences were most clearly observed at the regional scale, suggesting potential scale dependence. More specifically, nutrient additions homogenized bacterial community composition due to enhanced influences of homogenizing dispersal when SOM content was initially high. In contrast, nutrient additions led to divergence in community composition due to variable selection when initial SOM was low and/or when SOM increased significantly in response to nutrient additions. Our findings indicate important connections among initial conditions, degree of change in environmental variables, and microbial community assembly processes that may influence ecosystem processes. These conceptual inferences highlight a need to strengthen connections between ecological theory and biogeochemical modeling.

Feng, Youzhi↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Distant, Galaxy Cluster Environment of the Short GRB 161104A at $z\sim 0.8$ and a Comparison to the Short GRB Host Population

We present optical observations of the Swift short-duration gamma-ray burst (GRB) GRB 161104A and its host galaxy at z = 0.793 ± 0.003. We model the multiband photometry and spectroscopy with the stellar population inference code Prospector and explore the posterior using nested sampling. We find a mass-weighted age of $t_m = 2.12^{+0.23}_{-0.21}$ Gyr, stellar mass of log(M/M ⊙ ), metallicity of log(Z/Z ⊙ ), dust extinction of $A_V = 0.08^{+0.08}_{-0.05}$, and low star formation rate of 9.9 × 10 -2 M ⊙ yr -1 . These properties, along with a prominent 4000 Å break and optical absorption lines, classify this host as an early-type, quiescent galaxy. Using Dark Energy Survey galaxy catalogs, we demonstrate that the host of GRB 161104A resides on the outskirts of a galaxy cluster at z ≈ 0.8, situated ≈1 Mpc from the likely brightest cluster galaxy. We also present new modeling for 20 additional short GRB hosts (≈33% of which are early-type galaxies), finding population medians of and $t_m = 1.07^{+1.98}_{-0.67}$ Gyr (68% confidence). We further find that the host of GRB 161104A is more distant, less massive, and younger than the four other short GRB hosts known to be associated with galaxy clusters. Cluster short GRBs have faint afterglows, in the lower ≈11% (≈30%) of observed X-ray (optical) luminosities. We place a lower limit on the fraction of short GRBs in galaxy clusters versus those in the field of ≈5%–13%, consistent with the fraction of stellar mass of ≈10%–20% in galaxy clusters at redshifts 0.1 ≤ z ≤ 0.8. Future studies that take advantage of wider-field and deeper cluster surveys are needed to understand the true rate of short GRBs in clusters and their effect on heavy-element enrichment in the intracluster medium.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗