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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,459 records · Page 81
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainty quantification for deep learning in particle accelerator applications

With the advent of increased computational resources and improved algorithms, machine learning-based models are being increasingly applied to complex problems in particle accelerators. However, such data-driven models may provide overly confident predictions with unknown errors and uncertainties. For reliable deployment of machine learning models in high-regret and safety-critical systems such as particle accelerators, estimates of prediction uncertainty are needed along with accurate point predictions. In this investigation, we evaluate Bayesian neural networks (BNN) as an approach that can provide accurate predictions along with reliably quantified uncertainties for particle accelerator problems, and compare their performance with bootstrapped ensembles of neural networks. We select three accelerator setups for this evaluation: a storage ring, a photoinjector, and a linac. The problems span different data volumes and dimensionalities (e.g., scalar predictions as well as image outputs). It is found that BNN provide accurate predictions of the mean along with reliable estimates of predictive uncertainty across the test cases. In this vein, BNN may offer an attractive alternative to deterministic deep learning tools to generate accurate predictions with quantified uncertainties in particle accelerator applications.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

An interpretable machine learning framework to understand bikeshare demand before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in New York City

In recent years, bikesharing systems have become increasingly popular as affordable and sustainable micromobility solutions. Advanced mathematical models such as machine learning are required to generate good forecasts for bikeshare demand. Here, this study proposes a machine learning modeling framework to estimate hourly demand in a large-scale bikesharing system. Two Extreme Gradient Boosting models were developed: one using data from before the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2019 to February 2020) and the other using data from during the pandemic (March 2020 to February 2021). Furthermore, a model interpretation framework based on SHapley Additive exPlanations was implemented. Based on the relative importance of the explanatory variables considered in this study, share of female users and hour of day were the two most important explanatory variables in both models. However, the month variable had higher importance in the pandemic model than in the pre-pandemic model.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Golden Eagle Behavioral Modeling Enabled by High-Fidelity Atmospheric Models

The DOE-funded Golden Eagle Behavioral Modeling project combines knowledge of eagle behavior, eagle telemetry data, high-fidelity atmospheric and wind power plant flow models, and machine learning to develop tools that predict behavior and risk around wind power plants. This presentation provides background on the project and modeling approaches, as well as recent modeling and validation results from the region around the Top of the World wind plant in Wyoming.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials for Modeling Framework Flexibility and Water Uptake in NbOFFIVE-1-Ni Metal–Organic Framework

Metal–organic frameworks (MOFs), with their distinctive porous structures and tunable chemical properties, have shown immense promise in the separation and storage of gases. Currently, the accurate simulation of their adsorptive properties remains challenging, especially for systems where the molecules fit very tightly into the pores. Traditional simulation methods often approximate the frameworks as rigid and do not account for the framework flexibility seen in materials such as NbOFFIVE-1-Ni. First-principles molecular dynamics (FPMD) simulations offer the desired accuracy in modeling this flexibility but are limited by their extensive computational demands, rendering them impractical for long simulations. Conversely, classical force field-based simulations offer computational efficiency but lack the necessary accuracy. Here, to break this accuracy-efficiency trade-off, we have developed machine learning interatomic potentials trained on energies and forces from FPMD to model the framework flexibility of NbOFFIVE-1-Ni in the presence of water over nanosecond time scales. Furthermore, by integrating MLIP-driven molecular dynamics (MLIP-MD) with grand canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) simulations, we further incorporated framework flexibility into adsorption predictions, yielding water adsorption isotherms that better align with experimental data compared to those of conventional GCMC simulations. These advances offer new opportunities for the design and optimization of MOFs in gas storage and separation applications.

adsorption↗
DOE OSTI2021

Toward Hybrid Physics-Machine Learning to improve Land Surface Model predictions

A critical challenge for Land Surface Models (LSMs) is to simulate processes at the surface and the subsurface and their feedbacks to the atmosphere. Even using the same climate forcings, different LSMs predict different surface fluxes and soil moisture conditions due to differences in the formulations of individual processes, parameterizations, and representation of spatial heterogeneity. Ultimately, these differences contribute to the LSM prediction errors and uncertainty. This research seeks to address this challenge by coupling physics-based modeling with state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) techniques to describe complex physical and biogeochemical processes and narrow the gap between model predictions and observations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

ppdx : Automated modeling of protein–protein interaction descriptors for use with machine learning

This paper describes ppdx, a python workflow tool that combines protein sequence alignment, homology modeling, and structural refinement, to compute a broad array of descriptors for characterizing protein–protein interactions. The descriptors can be used to predict various properties of interest, such as protein–protein binding affinities, or inhibitory concentrations (IC 50 ), using approaches that range from simple regression to more complex machine learning models. The software is highly modular. It supports different protocols for generating structures, and 95 descriptors can be currently computed. More protocols and descriptors can be easily added. The implementation is highly parallel and can fully exploit the available cores in a single workstation, or multiple nodes on a supercomputer, allowing many systems to be analyzed simultaneously. As an illustrative application, ppdx is used to parametrize a model that predicts the IC 50 of a set of antigens and a class of antibodies directed to the influenza hemagglutinin stalk.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

WHONDRS River Corridor Sediment and Water Geochemistry and In Situ Sensor Data from Machine-Learning-Informed Sites across the Contiguous United States (v6)

This dataset supports a broader study examining hyporheic zone respiration rates to improve predictive models at a contiguous United States (CONUS) scale. The CONUS-Scale Model-Sample Study (CM) was designed following ICON (integrated, coordinated, open, and networked) principles to facilitate a model-experiment (ModEx) iteration approach, leveraging crowdsourced sampling across the CONUS. New machine learning models were created every month to guide sampling locations. Data from the resulting samples were used to test and rebuild the machine learning models for the next round of sampling guidance. Sampling began in April 2022 and ended in October 2023. In addition to the widely distributed CONUS sites, a more spatially focused sampling occurred in the Yakima River Basin, WA in summer 2022. Data from this more spatially intensive sampling occurred under the label “Second Spatial Study (SSS)” and were also included in the machine learning models. Other data types collected from SSS that were not part of CM were published in a separate data package (https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/view/doi:10.15485/1969566). This data package was originally published in February 2023. It was updated in June 2023 (v2; new and modified files); December 2023 (v3; new and modified files); June 2024 (v4; new and modified files); April 2024 (v5; new and modified files); and September 2025 (v6; modified files). See the change history section in the readme for more details. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. This dataset is comprised of two folders of field photos and videos, one folder of raw Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) data and one main data folder containing (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) field metadata; (4) readme; (5) international generic sample number (IGSN) mapping file; (6) field protocols; (7) a subfolder with sample data; and (8) a subfolder with sensor data. The sample data subfolder contains (1) surface water and sediment dissolved organic carbon (DOC, measured as non-purgeable organic carbon, NPOC) data and averages; (2) surface water and sediment total nitrogen data and averages; (3) surface water major cations and anions and averages; (4) sediment grain size data; (5) sediment iron (II) data and averages; (6) wet sediment mass, dry sediment mass, water mass, and wet sediment volume in incubation and sediment ICR vials; (7) sediment incubation respiration rate data and averages; (8) normalized respiration rate data and averages; (9) methods codes; (10) sediment specific surface area; (11) sediment percent carbon and nitrogen; (12) sediment gravimetric moisture and averages; (15) sediment X-ray diffraction (XRD) data; (16) sediment adenosine triphosphate (ATP) and averages; (17) a subfolder with sediment incubation respiration data, scripts, and plots; (18) surface water and sediment FTICR methods; and (19) a subfolder of 9.4 Tesla (9.4T) FTICR-MS data. This folder contains five subfolders, one containing the sediment .xml data files, one containing the water .xml files, one containing the sediment CoreMS output files, one containing the water CoreMS output files, and the other containing instructions and scripts for processing the files in CoreMS (https://github.com/EMSL-Computing/CoreMS).The sensor data subfolder contains (1) a subfolder with miniDOT dissolved oxygen and temperature data and plots; (2) miniDOT dissolved oxygen and temperature summary data; and (3) miniDOT installation methods. All files are .csv, .pdf, .R, .xml, .d, .html, .Rmd, .py, .cal, .json, .jpg, .jpeg, .png, .mov, or .mp4. CORRECTION: Carbon and nitrogen content are reported as percentages. The current column headers "01395_C_percent_per_mg" and "01397_N_percent_per_mg" are incorrect. These should read "01395_C_percent" and "01397_N_percent" and will be corrected in the next version of this data package. We thank the United States Forest Service, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Washington Department of Natural Resources, Cowiche Canyon Conservatory, Washington State Parks and Recreation Commission (Scientific Research Permit #210901), and the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation for access to field locations where the samples labeled “SSS” were collected. We also thank the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for working with us to facilitate sample collection and optimization of data usage according to their values and worldview. WHONDRS consortium members were asked to provide any acknowledgments for the collection of samples labeled “CM” and the following is a list of acknowledgments that were submitted with their corresponding Site IDs: (MART) Research activities were conducted in part on the Wind River Experimental Forest within the Gifford Pinchot National Forest; (MP- 100379) Philadelphia is part of Lenapehoking, the ancestral homelands of the Lenape peoples; (MP-102398) Land surveyed is the ancestral homelands of the Nookhose'iinenno (Arapaho), Tsis tsis'tas (Cheyenne), and Nuuchu (Ute); (MP-100749 and MP- 100747) Georgia Coastal Ecosystem LTER, OCE-1832178; (SP-70 and SP-72) Eastern Shoshone, Shoshone-Bannock; (MP- 102944) Funded by Oregon Watershed Enhancement Board. On the traditional lands of the Confederated Tribes of the Siletz, Confederated Tribes of the Grand Rhonde, and the Clatsop-Nehalem Confederated Tribe; (MP- 100607) Holiday Creek is located on the traditional territory of the Monacan Indian Nation; (SP-45) Lafayette Blue Springs State Park; (MP-102420) NSF DEB-2016749; (MP-100019) New Hampshire Agriculture Experiment Station; (SP-35) Rayonier (land owner; https://www.rayonier.com/); (MP- 101276) US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research, Subsurface Biogeochemical Research, Watershed Dynamics and Evolution SFA at ORNL; (MP- 103224) Watershed Dynamics and Evolution SFA at ORNL; (MP- 101584) Traditional lands of the Oceti Sakowin (Dakota, Lakota, Nakoda) and Anishinaabe Peoples.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mechanisms of Ethylene Epoxidation over Silver from Machine Learning-Accelerated First-Principles Modeling and Microkinetic Simulations

In this work we employed machine learning-augmented density functional theory (DFT) thermodynamic calculations to assess the stability of different AgO x structures under catalytic ethylene epoxidation reaction conditions. We found that there are multiple AgO x surface motifs that could co-exist under the relevant conditions. These included Ag surface oxides (e.g., AgO_p(4 × 4) and Ag 1.83 O) and atomic oxygen-covered Ag(111) surfaces. Furthermore, we employed DFT calculations to evaluate the energetics of different reaction mechanisms by which ethylene and oxygen can react on these surfaces. These studies revealed several energetically viable reaction pathways for ethylene epoxidation. Microkinetic modeling analyses, based on the DFT-calculated reaction pathways, showed that ethylene epoxidation can proceed on all surfaces and that multiple pathways, including those involving Langmuir–Hinshelwood and Eley–Rideal mechanisms, could be involved in selective and unselective reactions. The diversity of mechanisms that we discovered in the context of the relatively simple ethylene epoxidation reaction on Ag suggests that the richness and complexity of surface chemistry are most likely a rule rather than an exception in heterogeneous catalytic chemical transformations on metal surfaces and that the concept of a single or even a dominant mechanism and reaction intermediates might need to be revisited for many reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using Machine Learning to Generate a GISS ModelE Calibrated Physics Ensemble (CPE)

A neural network (NN) surrogate of the NASA GISS ModelE atmosphere (version E3) is trained on a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) spanning 45 physics parameters and 36 outputs. The NN is leveraged in a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Bayesian parameter inference framework to generate a second posterior constrained ensemble coined a “calibrated physics ensemble,” or CPE. The CPE members are characterized by diverse parameter combinations and are, by definition, close to top-of-atmosphere radiative balance, and must broadly agree with numerous hydrologic, energy cycle and radiative forcing metrics simultaneously. Global observations of numerous cloud, environment, and radiation properties (provided by global satellite products) are crucial for CPE generation. The inference framework explicitly accounts for discrepancies (or biases) in satellite products during CPE generation. We demonstrate that product discrepancies strongly impact calibration of important model parameter settings (e.g., convective plume entrainment rates; fall speed for cloud ice). Structural improvements new to E3 are retained across CPE members (e.g., stratocumulus simulation). Notably, the framework improved the simulation of shallow cumulus and Amazon rainfall while not degrading radiation fields, an upgrade that neither default parameters nor Latin Hypercube parameter searching achieved. Analyses of the initial PPE suggested several parameters were unimportant for output variation. However, many “unimportant” parameters were needed for CPE generation, a result that brings to the forefront how parameter importance should be determined in PPEs. From the CPE, two diverse 45-dimensional parameter configurations are retained to generate radiatively-balanced, auto-tuned atmospheres that were used in two E3 submissions to CMIP6.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

ML for microbiomes

The software provides machine learning analysis and visualization to detect patterns in microbiome data, including topic modeling, probabilistic graphical modeling, conventional machine learning methods, and deep learning. The software is written in python and R, it uses some python and R libraries as well as big open-source libraries like sklearn, networkX, pytorch (python), pgmpy (python), and bnlearn (R). It also has a script to use for MALLET and DTM (open-source packages for topic modeling, written in Java).

Kim, Anastasiia↗
DOE OSTI2022

Finding predictive models for singlet fission by machine learning

Singlet fission (SF), the conversion of one singlet exciton into two triplet excitons, could significantly enhance solar cell efficiency. Molecular crystals that undergo SF are scarce. Computational exploration may accelerate the discovery of SF materials. However, many-body perturbation theory (MBPT) calculations of the excitonic properties of molecular crystals are impractical for large-scale materials screening. We use the sure-independence-screening-and-sparsifying-operator (SISSO) machine-learning algorithm to generate computationally efficient models that can predict the MBPT thermodynamic driving force for SF for a dataset of 101 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH101). SISSO generates models by iteratively combining physical primary features. The best models are selected by linear regression with cross-validation. The SISSO models successfully predict the SF driving force with errors below 0.2 eV. Based on the cost, accuracy, and classification performance of SISSO models, we propose a hierarchical materials screening workflow. Three potential SF candidates are found in the PAH101 set.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine-Learned Manifold-Based Models for Large Eddy Simulation of Turbulent Combustion

Reduced-order manifold combustion models are commonly used to lower the cost of reacting Large Eddy Simulations (LES) and may be derived either from physical principles as in flamelet models or from data-driven methods like Principal Component Analysis (PCA). In either case, neural networks are increasingly used as part of these models to provide a nonlinear mapping between a small set of pre-defined variables that parameterize the manifold and outputs of interest, such as reaction rates. In this work, we propose a new manifold-based modeling approach that combines the definition of the manifold-parameterizing variables (linear combinations of species), the nonlinear mapping to the outputs, and closure of filtered quantities for LES into the structure of a single neural network. This allows the process used to train the neural network to simultaneously optimize both the functional form of the model and the identities of the inputs to the model. The new approach can flexibly incorporate thermochemical data from any combustion system; if trained on data from 1D flames it can be interpreted as an optimized flamelet model, but it can also be used to learn models from data from more complex configurations. This work presents a priori evaluations of the new approach in both contexts. Evaluation using data from 1D premixed flames demonstrates the physical interpretability of the manifold variables generated by the new approach. Evaluation using data from direct numerical simulations of turbulent flames shows improved predictions relative to either flamelet or PCA-based models in a more complex configuration.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Explainable machine learning for hydrogen diffusion in metals and random binary alloys

Hydrogen diffusion in metals and alloys plays an important role in the discovery of new materials for fuel cell and energy storage technology. While analytic models use hand-selected features that have clear physical ties to hydrogen diffusion, they often lack accuracy when making quantitative predictions. Machine learning models are capable of making accurate predictions, but their inner workings are obscured, rendering it unclear which physical features are truly important. To develop interpretable machine learning models to predict the activation energies of hydrogen diffusion in metals and random binary alloys, we create a database for physical and chemical properties of the species and use it to fit six machine learning models. Our models achieve root-mean-squared errors between 98–119 meV on the testing data and accurately predict that elemental Ru has a large activation energy, while elemental Cr and Fe have small activation energies. By analyzing the feature importances of these fitted models, we identify relevant physical properties for predicting hydrogen diffusivity. While metrics for measuring the individual feature importances for machine learning models exist, correlations between the features lead to disagreement between models and limit the conclusions that can be drawn. Instead grouped feature importance, formed by combining the features via their correlations, agree across the six models and reveal that the two groups containing the packing factor and electronic specific heat are particularly significant for predicting hydrogen diffusion in metals and random binary alloys. In conclusion, this framework allows us to interpret machine learning models and enables rapid screening of new materials with the desired rates of hydrogen diffusion.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Chemical-Free Lithium Separation from High-Salinity Brines Using Model-Informed and Machine Learning-Optimized Multi-Column Zwitterionic Chromatography

Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) technologies often struggle to produce high-purity lithium salts from high-salinity brines, as current approaches require chemical-based elution, regeneration, and precipitation steps, resulting in significant environmental footprints. A novel salt fractionation approach using carboxybetaine resin, known as zwitterionic chromatography (ZIC), has demonstrated that lithium ions can be separated from divalent cations under high-salinity conditions using only water as eluent, with no regeneration required. To enable continuous and scalable deployment of this approach, we developed a chemical-free Multi-column Zwitterionic Chromatography (MZC) process and its theoretical and process models. To predict and optimize this nontraditional separation system, we introduced a novel anti-Langmuir isotherm, and the isotherm parameters were estimated through a machine learning-driven optimization based on artificial neural network ensembles with numerical feasibility assessment. Using machine learning-driven optimization, the MZC process achieved 98.0% lithium recovery, 99.5 % Li/(Li + Mg + Ca) purity, a 31.3% productivity increase, and a 33% reduction in water use compared to batch operation. The proposed MZC process enables lithium separation at $0.6-1.2 kg-1 Li, with costs dominated by resin manufacturing, while offering lower separation costs and carbon footprint compared with conventional carbonation. Overall, these findings position the MZC process as an effective polishing step within scalable and sustainable lithium production pipelines.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning-enabled discovery of ionic liquid–solvent electrolytes exhibiting high ionic conductivity

Ionic liquids (ILs), which are a class of materials with versatile nature and growing popularity, are facing impediments toward widespread usage as electrolytes due to various factors such as low ionic conductivity, high viscosity, high market price etc. One of the ways these limitations can be addressed is by mixing ILs with a molecular solvent. In a combinatorial sense, there exists an immense number of specific IL–solvent combinations. An exhaustive experimental or even simulation-based investigation of the chemical space spanned by such combinations can be extremely time-consuming, expensive, and nearly impossible. An alternative approach is to employ machine learning-based models developed from available databases. Although there exists prior literature that integrates machine learning to investigate mixtures of specific solvents with ILs, these models lack generalization necessitating development of a large number of ML models to handle various solvents. To remedy this shortcoming, as a part of designing green electrolytes with high ionic conductivity that can have potential applications in next-generation batteries and solar cells, this work aims to develop a unified machine learning model to predict ionic conductivity of any IL–solvent mixture system. In this regard, three models, namely, Random Forest, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and artificial neural network (ANN) were formulated using the NIST ILThermo database. The dataset contained 549 unique ionic liquids from 16 cation families and 81 unique solvents, representing a total of 23 712 datapoints. SHAPLEY additive explanation (SHAP) method was used to assess the impact of various features on model prediction and their significance was compared with literature to gain physical insight about the model behavior. Finally, using the developed models, approximately 2.5 million IL–solvent mixtures at five different compositions were screened at room temperature. The high-throughput screening yielded nearly 19 000 IL–solvent mixtures for which ionic conductivity was found to exceed the ionic conductivity of conventional Li-ion battery electrolyte.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mesoscale informed parameter estimation through machine learning: A case-study in fracture modeling

Scale bridging is a critical need in computational sciences, where the modeling community has developed accurate physics models from first principles, of processes at lower length and time scales that influence the behavior at the higher scales of interest. However, it is not computationally feasible to incorporate all of the lower length scale physics directly into upscaled models. This is an area where machine learning has shown promise in building emulators of the lower length scale models, which incur a mere fraction of the computational cost of the original higher fidelity models. We demonstrate the use of machine learning using an example in materials science estimating continuum scale parameters by emulating, with uncertainties, complicated mesoscale physics. Additionally, we describe a new framework to emulate the fine scale physics, especially in the presence of microstructures, using machine learning, and showcase its usefulness by providing an example from modeling fracture propagation. Our approach can be thought of as a data-driven dimension reduction technique that yields probabilistic emulators. Our results show well-calibrated predictions for the quantities of interests in a low-strain simulation of fracture propagation at the mesoscale level. Furthermore, on average, we achieve ~10% relative errors on time-varying quantities like total damage and maximum stresses. Successfully replicating mesoscale scale physics within the continuum models is a crucial step towards predictive capability in multi-scale problems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗