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Waste Control Specialists Technical Review Team Report

1. Modeling of Drum 68660 and the WCS Drums: A calibrated model of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Drum 68660 indicates that pressurization of the drum by restriction of drum venting could have led to the thermal runaway reaction at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in 2014, supporting the hypothesis that the contents of the drum were not fundamentally different from the overall remediated nitrate salt (RNS) waste stream. 2. Nitric Acid Reactions and Aging of the Waste: The stability of the WCS RNS waste with respect to autocatalytic thermal runaway due to nitric acid chemistry should increase over time as the nitric acid is depleted from chemical reactions in the drum. However, this cannot be confirmed because of the lack of long-term experimental data on the impact of aging on the reactivity of RNS waste. The calibrated model indicates that the waste drums retain most of their reactive components, metal nitrate salts and sWheat Scoop ® , even after eight years. 3. Pressure Effects and Runaway Reactions: The calibrated model indicates that if the drums and standard waste boxes (SWBs) are not allowed to pressurize during transport or storage and they are stored at historical WIPP repository temperatures, then an autocatalytic thermal runaway event is not expected to occur. Since the cause of Drum 68660 pressurization is not known, decision makers are not able to tailor mitigating strategies to the initiating event. Consequently, mitigating strategies must consider all feasible internal and external events that could lead to the pressurization of the drums. 4. Temperature Effects and Runaway Reactions: Temperature also has a strong influence on the stability of the waste. The calibrated model indicates that cooling the drums or SWBs can reduce the possibility of autocatalytic thermal runaway reactions. Simulations suggest that for a drum with a plugged vent, the probability of thermal runaway may be reduced or eliminated if wastes are maintained at or below 43 °F through active cooling measures from the initiation of transport until emplacement at WIPP.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Report on in-situ studies of flash sintering of uranium dioxide

Flash sintering is a novel type of field assisted sintering that uses an electric field and current to provide densification of materials on very short time scales. The potential for field assisted sintering techniques to be used in producing nuclear fuel is gaining recognition due to the potential economic benefits and improvements in material properties. The flash sintering behavior has so far been linked to applied and material parameters, but the underlying mechanisms active during flash sintering have yet to be identified. This report summarizes the efforts to investigate flash sintering of uranium dioxide using dilatometer studies at Los Alamos National Laboratory and two separate sets of in-situ studies at Brookhaven National Laboratory’s NSLS-II XPD-1 beamline. The purpose of the dilatometer studies was to understand individual parameter (applied and material) effects on the flash behavior and the purpose of the in-situ studies was to better understand the mechanisms active during flash sintering. As far as applied parameters, it was found that stoichiometry, or oxygen-to-metal ratio, has a significant effect on the flash behavior (time to flash and speed of flash). Composite systems were found to have degraded sintering behavior relative to pure UO 2 . The critical field studies are complete for UO 2.00 and will be analyzed against an existing model for comparison. The in-situ studies showed that the strength of the field and current are directly related to the sample temperature, with temperature-driven phase changes occurring at high values. The existence of an ‘incubation time’ has been questioned, due to a continuous change in lattice parameter values from the moment that the field is applied. Some results from the in-situ experiments, which should provide evidence regarding ion migration, are still being analyzed. Some preliminary conclusions can be made from these results with regard to using field assisted sintering to fabricate nuclear fuel. First, the pure UO 2 -based system shows promising behavior with flash sintering, but composite systems are likely to show better sintering behavior with spark plasma sintering. Efforts to develop these methods should therefore be tailored towards the likelihood of success. Additionally, modeling is a rapidly developing aspect of current flash sintering research and should be used in parallel with experiments. Ultimately, ongoing flash sintering studies on various materials, like those summarized in this report, are rapidly contributing to the feasibility of controlling this method for use in the future.

##CAI suggestions##↗

Investigation of Portable Event-Based Monte Carlo Transport Using the NVIDIA Thrust Library

Power consumption considerations are driving future high performance computing platforms toward many-core computing architectures. Los Alamos National Laboratory's Trinity machine, available in 2016, will use both Intel Xeon Haswell processors and Intel Xeon Phi Knights Landing many integrated core (MIC) architecture coprocessors. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's Sierra machine, available in 2018, will use an IBM PowerPC architecture along with Nvidia graphics processing unit (GPU) architecture accelerators. These different advanced architectures make the computing landscape in upcoming years complex. Traditional approaches to Monte Carlo transport do not work efficiently on these new computing platforms. MIC architectures require vectorization to operate efficiently, and vectorization is difficult to achieve in Monte Carlo transport. GPU architectures require additional code to explicitly use the hardware, requiring significant code changes or hardware specific branches in the source code. A significant challenge for Monte Carlo transport projects is to simultaneously support within a single source code base efficient simulations for both the current generation of architectures and the different advanced computing architectures. In order to address these challenges, two important changes are typically required: a new algorithmic approach for solving Monte Carlo transport, and explicit use of hardware specific software. In this paper, we describe initial research investigations of an event-based Monte Carlo transport algorithm implemented using the Nvidia Thrust library on a GPU for a Monte Carlo test code. The event-based algorithm targets many-core architectures by increasing SIMD (single instruction multiple data) parallelism, while Thrust potentially provides portable performance by allowing one source code base to compile code targeted for both CPUs and GPUs. We described preliminary investigations of portable event-based Monte Carlo algorithms implemented using the Nvidia Thrust library in a research Monte Carlo test code. We found that an explicit CUDA implementation of an event-based Monte Carlo algorithm performed significantly more efficiently than a Thrust implementation on GPU platforms, most likely as a result of additional flexibility in access to different memory spaces on the GPU. Additionally, we showed that on GPU platforms and at large enough problem sizes the event-based implementations perform more efficiently than the serial history-based implementation running on the host CPU. While investigating this problem, we also discovered that the performance of the event-based algorithm is affected by what tallies are being used. A zonal scalar flux tally requires atomic operations that significantly impacted the performance of the code, in some cases producing slowdowns instead of speedups. We decided to remove the tally in order to focus on the effectiveness of the event-based algorithm. Future work will be required to research more effective ways of handling such tallies. Additionally, we would like to consider new ways for optimizing both the Thrust and CUDA versions, in order to see how much performance we have yet to achieve. The potential trade-off between portability and performance was demonstrated in this investigation. Thrust provides both CPU and GPU versions of the code in one code base, but it does so at a cost. We discovered approximately a factor of 2-5 performance difference between Thrust and CUDA on each GPU platform we tested. Thrust provides a tool to access the GPUs with less effort and specialization, but it does so by giving up fine grained control where extra performance can be found for this application. Future work will be required to determine whether this performance differential between Thrust and CUDA can be reduced for event-based Monte Carlo transport. (authors)

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

In-Flight Operation of the Dawn Ion Propulsion System: Status at One Year from the Vesta Rendezvous

The Dawn mission, part of NASA's Discovery Program, has as its goal the scientific exploration of the two most massive main-belt asteroids, Vesta and Ceres. The Dawn spacecraft was launched from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station on September 27, 2007 on a Delta-II 7925H-9.5 (Delta-II Heavy) rocket that placed the 1218 kg spacecraft into an Earth-escape trajectory. On-board the spacecraft is an ion propulsion system (IPS) developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory which will provide most of the delta V needed for heliocentric transfer to Vesta, orbit capture at Vesta, transfer among Vesta science orbits, departure and escape from Vesta, heliocentric transfer to Ceres, orbit capture at Ceres, and transfer among Ceres science orbits. The Dawn ion thruster [I thought we only called it a thruster. Both terms are used in the paper, but I think a replacement of every occurrence of "engine" with "thruster" would be clearer.] design is based on the design validated on NASA's Deep Space 1 (DS1) mission. However, because of the very substantial (11 km/s) delta V requirements for this mission Dawn requires two engines to complete its mission objectives. The power processor units (PPU), digital control and interface units (DCIU) slice boards and the xenon control assembly (XCA) are derivatives of the components used on DS1. The DCIUs and thrust gimbal assemblies (TGA) were developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The spacecraft was provided by Orbital Sciences Corporation, Sterling, Virginia, and the mission is managed by and operated from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Dawn partnered with Germany, Italy and Los Alamos National Laboratory for the science instruments. The mission is led by the principal investigator, Dr. Christopher Russell, from the University of California, Los Angeles. The first 80 days after launch were dedicated to the initial checkout of the spacecraft followed by cruise to Mars. Cruise thrusting leading to a Mars gravity assist began on December 17, 2007 and was successfully concluded as planned on October 31, 2008. During this time period the Dawn IPS was operated mostly at full power for approximately 6500 hours, consumed 71.7 kg of xenon and delivered approximately 1.8 km/s of delta V to the spacecraft. The thrusting to Mars was followed by a coasting period of approximately 3.5 months that included a Mars flyby in February of 2009. The Mars flyby provided a gravity assist (MGA) for a plane change and approximately 1 km/s of heliocentric energy increase and is the only part of the mission following launch in which a needed velocity change is not accomplished by the IPS. During the coast period IPS was operated for a trajectory correction maneuver and for engineering tests but was not operated for primary propulsion. Closest approach to Mars occurred as planned on February 17, 2009 and was followed by another coasting period of just under 4 months in duration. During this last coasting phase IPS was operated only for routine maintenance activities and for system engineering tests. Deterministic thrusting for heliocentric transfer to Vesta resumed on June 8, 2009. Since resumption of cruise to Vesta IPS has been operated at throttled power levels, most of the time at full power, and with a duty cycle of approximately 93%, leading to an arrival at Vesta in July of 2011 and arrival at Ceres in February 2015. This paper provides an overview of Dawn's mission objectives and the results of Dawn IPS mission operations through one year from the spacecraft's rendezvous with Vesta.

Garner, Charles E.↗

In-Flight Operation of the Dawn Ion Propulsion System Through Start of the Vesta Cruise Phase

The Dawn mission, part of NASA's Discovery Program, has as its goal the scientific exploration of the two most massive main-belt asteroids, Vesta and Ceres. The Dawn spacecraft was launched from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station on September 27, 2007 on a Delta-II 7925H-9.5 (Delta-II Heavy) rocket that placed the 1218 kg spacecraft into an Earth-escape trajectory. On-board the spacecraft is an ion propulsion system (IPS) which will provide most of the delta V needed for heliocentric transfer to Vesta, orbit capture at Vesta, transfer to Vesta science orbits, departure and escape from Vesta, heliocentric transfer to Ceres, orbit capture at Ceres, and transfer to Ceres science orbits. The Dawn ion design is based on the design validated on NASA's Deep Space 1 (DS1) mission. However, because of the very substantial (11 km/s) delta V requirements for this mission Dawn requires two engines to complete its mission objectives. The power processor units (PPU), digital control and interface units (DCIU) slice boards and the xenon control assembly (XCA) are derivatives of the components used on DS1. The DCIUs and thrust gimbal assemblies (TGA) were developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The spacecraft was provided by Orbital Sciences Corporation, Sterling, Virginia, and the mission is managed by and operated from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Dawn partnered with Germany, Italy and Los Alamos National Laboratory for the science instruments. The mission is led by the principal investigator, Dr. Christopher Russell, from the University of California, Los Angeles. The first 80 days after launch were dedicated to the initial checkout of the spacecraft followed by cruise to Mars. Cruise thrusting leading to a Mars gravity assist began on December 17, 2007 and was successfully concluded as planned on October 31, 2008. During this time period the Dawn IPS was operated mostly at full power for approximately 6500 hours, consumed 71.7 kg of xenon and delivered approximately 1.8 km/s of delta V to the spacecraft. The thrusting to Mars was followed by a coasting period of approximately 3.5 months that included a Mars flyby in February of 2009. The Mars flyby provided a gravity assist (MGA) for a plane change and approximately 1 km/s of heliocentric energy increase and is the only part of the mission following launch in which a needed velocity change is not accomplished by the IPS. During the coast period IPS was operated for a trajectory correction maneuver and for engineering tests but was not operated for primary propulsion. Closest approach to Mars occurred as planned on February 17, 2009 and was followed by another coasting period of just under 4 months in duration. During this last coasting phase IPS was operated only for routine maintenance activities and for system engineering tests. Deterministic thrusting for heliocentric transfer to Vesta resumed on June 8, 2009. IPS will be operated for over two years at throttled power levels leading to arrival at Vesta in September of 2011 and arrival at Ceres in February 2015. This paper provides an overview of Dawn's mission objectives and the results of Dawn IPS mission operations through the start of deterministic thrusting to Vesta.

Garner, Charles E.↗

In-Flight Operation of the Dawn Ion Propulsion System - The First Nine Months

The Dawn mission, part of NASA's Discovery Program, has as its goal the scientific exploration of the two most massive main-belt asteroids, Vesta and Ceres. The Dawn spacecraft was launched from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station on September 27, 2007 on a Delta-II 7925H-9.5 (Delta-II Heavy) rocket that placed the 1218 kg spacecraft into an Earth-escape trajectory. On-board the spacecraft is an ion propulsion system (IPS) which will provide most of the delta-V needed for heliocentric transfer to Vesta, orbit capture at Vesta, transfer to Vesta science orbits, departure and escape from Vesta, heliocentric transfer to Ceres, orbit capture at Ceres, and transfer to Ceres science orbits. The Dawn ion engine design is based on the design validated on NASA's Deep Space 1 mission. However, because of the very substantial (11 km/s) delta-V requirements for this mission Dawn requires two engines to complete its mission objectives. The power processor units (PPU), digital control and interface units (DCIU) slice boards and the xenon control assembly (XCA) are also based on the DS1 design. The DCIUs and thrust gimbal assemblies (TGA) were developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The spacecraft was provided by Orbital Sciences Corporation, Sterling, Virginia, and the mission is managed by and operated from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Dawn partnered with Germany, Italy and Los Alamos National Laboratory for the science instruments. The mission is led by the principal investigator, Dr. Christopher Russell, from the University of California, Los Angeles. The first 80 days after launch were dedicated to the initial checkout of the spacecraft prior to the initiation of long-term thrusting for the heliocentric transfer to Vesta. The IPS hardware, consisting of three ion thrusters and TGAs, two PPUs and DCIUs, xenon feed system, and spacecraft control software, was investigated extensively. Thrust measurements, roll torque measurements, pointing capabilities, control characteristics, and thermal behavior of the spacecraft and IPS were carefully evaluated. The Dawn IPS fully met all its initial checkout performance objectives. Deterministic thrusting for cruise began on December 17, 2007. Over the subsequent approximately 330 days the IPS will be operated virtually continuously at full power thrusting (approximately 91 mN) leading to a Mars flyby in February 2009. The encounter with Mars provides a gravity assist for a plane change and is the only source of post-launch delta-V apart from the IPS. Following the Mars gravity assist IPS will be operated for approximately one year at full power and for 1.3 years at throttled power levels leading to rendezvous with Vesta in August of 2011. Following nine months of orbital operations with IPS providing the propulsion needed for orbit capture, science orbit transfer and orbit maintenance and Vesta escape, Dawn will transit to Ceres with an expected arrival date of February 2015. As of June 16, 2008 the ion thrusters on Dawn have operated for close to 3,846 hours and have delivered nearly 1 km/s of delta-V to the spacecraft. Dawn IPS operation has been almost flawless during the initial checkout and six months of cruise. This paper provides an overview of Dawn's mission objectives, mission and system design, and the results of the post-launch Dawn IPS mission operations through June 2008

Garner, Charles E.↗

Insights for controlling plutonium behavior in hydrochloric acid solutions

Cyclic voltammetry, UV-vis, and X-ray absorption spectroscopy were used to demonstrate that aqueous plutonium coordination chemistry and electron transfer reactivity can be controlled by judicious manipulation of hydrochloric acid concentrations.

Wang, Yufei [Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los A↗

The Postwar Laboratory

Recent discussion of project policy has met with a widespread feeling that important alternatives were not being properly considered. These alternatives will be discussed here from the point of view of research personnel concerned with formulation a laboratory policy based on the wartime experience of Los Alamos. This policy is discussed on the primary assumption that the national investment here in facilities, in tradition, and in the existence of an going research and development laboratory organization ought not to be lightly discarded, but also ought not to be wholly continued without reexamination under the new conditions of peace. Others will discuss this policy more broadly, and others will make the decision of continuation; but the purpose of the present document is to suggest a policy which might help answer the question of what to do with Los Alamos.It is the thesis of this document that fundamental research in fields underlying the military utilization of atomic energy ought to be separated from all development testing and production. It still remains to argue which of these separate functions this mesa should carry out. In the next sections it is proposed to describe what this laboratory can do and what it should stop trying to do, and on this detailed basis a general program is proposed.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Impacts of a mushy‐layer thermodynamic approach in global sea‐ice simulations using the CICE sea‐ice model

Abstract We perform global simulations of the Los Alamos sea‐ice model, CICE, with a new thermodynamics component that has a fully prognostic, variable bulk salinity vertical profile based on mushy layer physics. The processes of gravity drainage, melt‐water flushing and snow‐ice formation are parameterized to allow the bulk salinity to evolve with time. We analyze the seasonal and spatial variation of sea‐ice bulk salinity, area, volume and thickness and compare these quantities to simulations using the previous thermodynamic component. Adjusting one of the gravity drainage parameters, we find good agreement between simulation results and fieldwork ice‐core observations of sea‐ice bulk salinity. As expected, bulk salinity is highest during periods of ice growth and lowest after periods of ice melt. In the northern hemisphere the new thermodynamics component produces thicker ice than the previous thermodynamics component. Of the nine major differences between the two models, differences in how salinities are calculated and how melt‐pond flushing is parameterized are the principal causes of this thickness difference. Thickness differences are smaller in the southern hemisphere than in the northern hemisphere since a greater fraction of ice melts, and differences cannot accumulate year‐on‐year. Model differences in how ice thickness changes and snow‐ice formation are calculated are the most important causes of the different thickness between the two thermodynamic components in the southern hemisphere. The melt‐pond area and volume are found to be highly sensitive to a parameter choice controlling drainage through macroscopic holes in the ice, in both hemispheres.

Turner, Adrian K.↗

An empirical model of electron and ion fluxes derived from observations at geosynchronous orbit

Knowledge of the plasma fluxes at geosynchronous orbit is important to both scientific and operational investigations. We present a new empirical model of the ion flux and the electron flux at geosynchronous orbit (GEO) in the energy range ~1 eV to ~40 keV. The model is based on a total of 82 satellite-years of observations from the Magnetospheric Plasma Analyzer instruments on Los Alamos National Laboratory satellites at GEO. These data are assigned to a fixed grid of 24 local-times and 40 energies, at all possible values of Kp. Bi-linear interpolation is used between grid points to provide the ion flux and the electron flux values at any energy and local-time, and for given values of geomagnetic activity (proxied by the 3-hour Kp index), and also for given values of solar activity (proxied by the daily F10.7 index). Initial comparison of the electron flux from the model with data from a Compact Environmental Anomaly Sensor II (CEASE-II), also located at geosynchronous orbit, indicate a good match during both quiet and disturbed periods. The model is available for distribution as a FORTRAN code that can be modified to suit user-requirements.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Effects of ULF waves on local and global energetic particles: Particle energy and species dependences

After 06:13 UT on 24 August 2005, an interplanetary shock triggers large-amplitude ultralow-frequency (ULF) waves (|δB| ≥ 15 nT) in the Pc4–Pc5 wave band (1.6–9 mHz) near the noon geosynchronous orbit (6.6 R E ). The local and global effects of ULF waves on energetic particles are observed by five Los Alamos National Laboratory satellites at different magnetic local times. The large-amplitude ULF waves cause the synchronous oscillations of energetic electrons and protons (≥75 keV) at the noon geosynchronous orbit. When the energetic particles have a negative phase space density radial gradient, they undergo rapid outward radial diffusion and loss in the wave activity region. In the particle drift paths without strong ULF waves, only the rapidly drifting energetic electrons (≥225 keV) display energy-dispersive oscillations and flux decays, whereas the slowly drifting electrons (<225 keV) and protons (75–400 keV) have no ULF oscillation and loss feature. When the dayside magnetopause is compressed to the geosynchronous orbit, most of energetic electrons and protons are rapidly lost because of open drift trajectories. Furthermore, the global and multicomposition particle measurements demonstrate that the effect of ULF waves on nonlocal particle flux depends on the particle energy and species, whereas magnetopause shadowing effect is independent of the energetic particle species. For the rapidly drifting outer radiation belt particles (≥225 keV), nonlocal particle loss/acceleration processes could also change their fluxes in the entire drift trajectory in the absence of “ Dst effect” and substorm injection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

On the origin of low-energy electrons in the inner magnetosphere: Fluxes and pitch-angle distributions

Correct knowledge of the plasma fluxes in the inner magnetosphere is crucial for both scientific and programmatic applications. Knowledge of the low-energy electrons (approximately tens to hundreds of eV) in the inner magnetosphere is particularly important since these electrons are acted upon by various physical processes, accelerating the electrons to higher energies, and also causing their loss. However, measurements of low-energy electrons are challenging, and as a result, this population has been somewhat neglected previously. This work concerns observations of low-energy electrons made by the Helium Oxygen Proton Electron instrument on board the Van Allen Probes satellites and also observations from geosynchronous orbit made by the Magnetospheric Plasma Analyzer on board Los Alamos National Laboratory satellites. The fluxes of electrons from ~30 eV to 1 keV are quantified as a function of pitch-angle, McIlwain L parameter, and local time for both quiet and active periods. Results indicate two sources for low-energy electrons in this energy range: the low-energy tail of the electron plasma sheet and the high-energy tail of the dayside ionosphere. These populations are identified primarily as a result of their different pitch-angle distributions. Field-aligned outflows from the dayside ionosphere are observed at all L shells during quiet and active periods. Our findings also demonstrate that the dayside electron field-aligned fluxes at ~30 eV are particularly strong between L values of 6 and 7, indicating an enhanced source within the polar ionosphere.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Validation of sea ice models using an uncertainty-based distance metric for multiple model variables: NEW METRIC FOR SEA ICE MODEL VALIDATION

Here, we implement a variance-based distance metric (D n ) to objectively assess skill of sea ice models when multiple output variables or uncertainties in both model predictions and observations need to be considered. The metric compares observations and model data pairs on common spatial and temporal grids improving upon highly aggregated metrics (e.g., total sea ice extent or volume) by capturing the spatial character of model skill. The D n metric is a gamma-distributed statistic that is more general than the χ 2 statistic commonly used to assess model fit, which requires the assumption that the model is unbiased and can only incorporate observational error in the analysis. The D n statistic does not assume that the model is unbiased, and allows the incorporation of multiple observational data sets for the same variable and simultaneously for different variables, along with different types of variances that can characterize uncertainties in both observations and the model. This approach represents a step to establish a systematic framework for probabilistic validation of sea ice models. The methodology is also useful for model tuning by using the D n metric as a cost function and incorporating model parametric uncertainty as part of a scheme to optimize model functionality. We apply this approach to evaluate different configurations of the standalone Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) encompassing the parametric uncertainty in the model, and to find new sets of model configurations that produce better agreement than previous configurations between model and observational estimates of sea ice concentration and thickness.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Comparison of equilibrium ohmic and nonequilibrium swarm models for monitoring conduction electron evolution in high-altitude EMP calculations

Here, atmospheric electromagnetic pulse (EMP) events are important physical phenomena that occur through both man-made and natural processes. Radiation-induced currents and voltages in EMP can couple with electrical systems, such as those found in satellites, and cause significant damage. Due to the disruptive nature of EMP, it is important to accurately predict EMP evolution and propagation with computational models. CHAP-LA (Compton High Altitude Pulse-Los Alamos) is a state-of-the-art EMP code that solves Maxwell inline images equations for gamma source-induced electromagnetic fields in the atmosphere. In EMP, low-energy, conduction electrons constitute a conduction current that limits the EMP by opposing the Compton current. CHAP-LA calculates the conduction current using an equilibrium ohmic model. The equilibrium model works well at low altitudes, where the electron energy equilibration time is short compared to the rise time or duration of the EMP. At high altitudes, the equilibration time increases beyond the EMP rise time and the predicted equilibrium ionization rate becomes very large. The ohmic model predicts an unphysically large production of conduction electrons which prematurely and abruptly shorts the EMP in the simulation code. An electron swarm model, which implicitly accounts for the time evolution of the conduction electron energy distribution, can be used to overcome the limitations exhibited by the equilibrium ohmic model. We have developed and validated an electron swarm model previously in Pusateri et al. (2015). Here we demonstrate EMP damping behavior caused by the ohmic model at high altitudes and show improvements on high-altitude, upward EMP modeling obtained by integrating a swarm model into CHAP-LA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sea ice thermohaline dynamics and biogeochemistry in the Arctic Ocean: Empirical and model results

Here, large changes in the sea ice regime of the Arctic Ocean have occurred over the last decades justifying the development of models to forecast sea ice physics and biogeochemistry. The main goal of this study is to evaluate the performance of the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) to simulate physical and biogeochemical properties at time scales of a few weeks and to use the model to analyze ice algal bloom dynamics in different types of ice. Ocean and atmospheric forcing data and observations of the evolution of the sea ice properties collected from 18 April to 4 June 2015, during the Norwegian young sea ICE expedition, were used to test the CICE model. Our results show the following: (i) model performance is reasonable for sea ice thickness and bulk salinity; good for vertically resolved temperature, vertically averaged Chl a concentrations, and standing stocks; and poor for vertically resolved Chl a concentrations. (ii) Improving current knowledge about nutrient exchanges, ice algal recruitment, and motion is critical to improve sea ice biogeochemical modeling. (iii) Ice algae may bloom despite some degree of basal melting. (iv) Ice algal motility driven by gradients in limiting factors is a plausible mechanism to explain their vertical distribution. (v) Different ice algal bloom and net primary production (NPP) patterns were identified in the ice types studied, suggesting that ice algal maximal growth rates will increase, while sea ice vertically integrated NPP and biomass will decrease as a result of the predictable increase in the area covered by refrozen leads in the Arctic Ocean.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An improved empirical model of electron and ion fluxes at geosynchronous orbit based on upstream solar wind conditions

In this study, a new empirical model of the electron fluxes and ion fluxes at geosynchronous orbit (GEO) is introduced, based on observations by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) satellites. The model provides flux predictions in the energy range ~1 eV to ~40 keV, as a function of local time, energy, and the strength of the solar wind electric field (the negative product of the solar wind speed and the z component of the magnetic field). Given appropriate upstream solar wind measurements, the model provides a forecast of the fluxes at GEO with a ~1 h lead time. Model predictions are tested against in-sample observations from LANL satellites and also against out-of-sample observations from the Compact Environmental Anomaly Sensor II detector on the AMC-12 satellite. The model does not reproduce all structure seen in the observations. However, for the intervals studied here (quiet and storm times) the normalized root-mean-square deviation < ~0.3. It is intended that the model will improve forecasting of the spacecraft environment at GEO and also provide improved boundary/input conditions for physical models of the magnetosphere.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗