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At least 1,459 records · Page 81

BEYONDPLANCK VI. Noise characterization and modeling

We present a Bayesian method for estimating instrumental noise parameters and propagating noise uncertainties within the global BeyondPlanck Gibbs sampling framework, and apply this to Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) time-ordered data. Following previous literature, we initially adopt a 1/ f model for the noise power spectral density (PSD), but find the need for an additional lognormal component in the noise model for the 30 and 44 GHz bands. We implement an optimal Wiener-filter (or constrained realization) gap-filling procedure to account for masked data. We then use this procedure to both estimate the gapless correlated noise in the time-domain, n corr , and to sample the noise PSD parameters, ξ n = {σ 0 , f knee , α, A p }. In contrast to previous Planck analyses, we assume piecewise stationary noise only within each pointing period (PID), not throughout the full mission, but we adopt the LFI Data Processing Center (DPC) results as priors on α and f knee . On average, we find best-fit correlated noise parameters that are mostly consistent with previous results, with a few notable exceptions. However, a detailed inspection of the time-dependent results reveals many important findings. First and foremost, we find strong evidence for statistically significant temporal variations in all noise PSD parameters, many of which are directly correlated with satellite housekeeping data. Second, while the simple 1/ f model appears to be an excellent fit for the LFI 70 GHz channel, there is evidence for additional correlated noise not described by a 1/ f model in the 30 and 44 GHz channels, including within the primary science frequency range of 0.1–1 Hz. In general, most 30 and 44 GHz channels exhibit deviations from 1/ f at the 2–3σ level in each one hour pointing period, motivating the addition of the lognormal noise component for these bands. For some periods of time, we also find evidence of strong common mode noise fluctuations across the entire focal plane. Overall, we conclude that a simple 1/ f profile is not adequate to fully characterize the Planck LFI noise, even when fitted hour-by-hour, and a more general model is required. These findings have important implications for large-scale CMB polarization reconstruction with the Planck LFI data, and the current work is a first attempt at understanding and mitigating these issues.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Imaging phonon dynamics with ultrafast electron microscopy: Kinematical and dynamical simulations

Ultrafast x-ray and electron scattering techniques have proven to be useful for probing the transient elastic lattice deformations associated with photoexcited coherent acoustic phonons. Indeed, femtosecond electron imaging using an ultrafast electron microscope (UEM) has been used to directly image the influence of nanoscale structural and morphological discontinuities on the emergence, propagation, dispersion, and decay behaviors in a variety of materials. Here, we describe our progress toward the development of methods ultimately aimed at quantifying acoustic-phonon properties from real-space UEM images via conventional image simulation methods extended to the associated strain-wave lattice deformation symmetries and extents. Using a model system consisting of pristine single-crystal Ge and a single, symmetric Lamb-type guided-wave mode, we calculate the transient strain profiles excited in a wedge specimen and then apply both kinematical- and dynamical-scattering methods to simulate the resulting UEM bright-field images. While measurable contrast strengths arising from the phonon wavetrains are found for optimally oriented specimens using both approaches, incorporation of dynamical scattering effects via a multi-slice method returns better qualitative agreement with experimental observations. Contrast strengths arising solely from phonon-induced local lattice deformations are increased by nearly an order of magnitude when incorporating multiple electron scattering effects. We also explicitly demonstrate the effects of changes in global specimen orientation on the observed contrast strength, and we discuss the implications for increasing the sophistication of the model with respect to quantification of phonon properties from UEM images.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Minimizing the impacts of the ammonia economy on the nitrogen cycle and climate

Ammonia (NH 3 ) is an attractive low-carbon fuel and hydrogen carrier. However, losses and inefficiencies across the value chain could result in reactive nitrogen emissions (NH 3 , NO x , and N 2 O), negatively impacting air quality, the environment, human health, and climate. A relatively robust ammonia economy (30 EJ/y) could perturb the global nitrogen cycle by up to 65 Mt/y with a 5% nitrogen loss rate, equivalent to 50% of the current global perturbation caused by fertilizers. Moreover, the emission rate of nitrous oxide (N 2 O), a potent greenhouse gas and ozone-depleting molecule, determines whether ammonia combustion has a greenhouse footprint comparable to renewable energy sources or higher than coal (100 to 1,400 gCO 2 e/kWh). The success of the ammonia economy hence hinges on adopting optimal practices and technologies that minimize reactive nitrogen emissions. We discuss how this constraint should be included in the ongoing broad engineering research to reduce environmental concerns and prevent the lock-in of high-leakage practices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Biogeophysical Effects of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change Not Detectable in Warmest Month

Land-use and land-cover changes (hereafter simply “land use”) alter climates biogeophysically by affecting surface fluxes of energy and water. Yet, near-surface temperature responses to land use across observational versus model-based studies and spatial-temporal scales can be inconsistent. Here we assess the prevalence of the historical land use signal of daily maximum temperatures averaged over the warmest month of the year (t LU ) using regularized optimal fingerprinting for detection and attribution. We use observations from the Climatic Research Unit and Berkeley Earth alongside historical simulations with and without land use from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to reconstruct an experiment representing the effects of land use on climate. To assess the signal of land use at spatially resolved continental and global scales, we aggregate all input data across reference regions and continents, respectively. At both scales, land use does not comprise a significantly detectable set of forcings for two of four Earth system models and their multimodel mean. Furthermore, using a principal component analysis, we find that t LU is mostly composed of the nonlocal effects of land use rather than its local effects. These findings show that, at scales relevant for climate attribution, uncertainties in Earth system model representations of land use are too high relative to the effects of internal variability to confidently assess land use.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Entropy and chemical change. 1: Characterization of product (and reactant) energy distributions in reactive molecular collisions: Information and enthropy deficiency

Optimal means of characterizing the distribution of product energy states resulting from reactive collisions of molecules with restricted distributions of initial states are considered, along with those for characterizing the particular reactant state distribution which yields a given set of product states at a specified total energy. It is suggested to represent the energy-dependence of global-type results in the form of square-faced bar plots, and of data for specific-type experiments as triangular-faced prismatic plots. The essential parameters defining the internal state distribution are isolated, and the information content of such a distribution is put on a quantitative basis. The relationship between the information content, the surprisal, and the entropy of the continuous distribution is established. The concept of an entropy deficiency, which characterizes the specificity of product state formation, is suggested as a useful measure of the deviance from statistical behavior. The degradation of information by experimental averaging is considered, leading to bounds on the entropy deficiency.

Bernstein, R. B.↗

Precise near-earth navigation with GPS: A survey of techniques

The tracking accuracy of the low earth orbiters (below about 3000 km altitude) can be brought below 10 cm with a variety of differential techniques that exploit the Global Positioning System (GPS). All of these techniques require a precisely known global network of GPS ground receivers and a receiver aboard the user satellite, and all simultaneously estimate the user and GPS satellite orbits. Three basic approaches are the geometric, dynamic, and nondynamic strategies. The last combines dynamic GPS solutions with a geometric user solution. Two powerful extensions of the nondynamic strategy show considerable promise. The first uses an optimized synthesis of dynamics and geometry in the user solution, while the second uses a novel gravity-adjustment method to exploit data from repeat ground tracks. These techniques will offer sub-decimeter accuracy for dynamically unpredictable satellites down to the lowesst possible altitudes.

Yunck, T. P.↗

Bilinear modeling and nonlinear estimation

New methods are illustrated for online nonlinear estimation applied to the lateral deflection of an elastic beam on board measurements of angular rates and angular accelerations. The development of the filter equations, together with practical issues of their numerical solution as developed from global linearization by nonlinear output injection are contrasted with the usual method of the extended Kalman filter (EKF). It is shown how nonlinear estimation due to gyroscopic coupling can be implemented as an adaptive covariance filter using off-the-shelf Kalman filter algorithms. The effect of the global linearization by nonlinear output injection is to introduce a change of coordinates in which only the process noise covariance is to be updated in online implementation. This is in contrast to the computational approach which arises in EKF methods arising by local linearization with respect to the current conditional mean. Processing refinements for nonlinear estimation based on optimal, nonlinear interpolation between observations are also highlighted. In these methods the extrapolation of the process dynamics between measurement updates is obtained by replacing a transition matrix with an operator spline that is optimized off-line from responses to selected test inputs.

Dwyer, Thomas A. W., III↗

Combined control-structural optimization

An approach to combined control-structural optimization aimed at enhancing early design trade-offs is outlined and illustrated by numerical examples. The approach employs a homotopic strategy and is capable of generating families of designs that can be used in early trade studies. Analytical results are obtained for classes of structure/control objectives with LQG and LQR costs. For these, it is demonstrated that global optima can be computed for small values of the homotopy parameter.

Milman, M.↗

The ParaScope parallel programming environment

The ParaScope parallel programming environment, developed to support scientific programming of shared-memory multiprocessors, includes a collection of tools that use global program analysis to help users develop and debug parallel programs. This paper focuses on ParaScope's compilation system, its parallel program editor, and its parallel debugging system. The compilation system extends the traditional single-procedure compiler by providing a mechanism for managing the compilation of complete programs. Thus, ParaScope can support both traditional single-procedure optimization and optimization across procedure boundaries. The ParaScope editor brings both compiler analysis and user expertise to bear on program parallelization. It assists the knowledgeable user by displaying and managing analysis and by providing a variety of interactive program transformations that are effective in exposing parallelism. The debugging system detects and reports timing-dependent errors, called data races, in execution of parallel programs. The system combines static analysis, program instrumentation, and run-time reporting to provide a mechanical system for isolating errors in parallel program executions. Finally, we describe a new project to extend ParaScope to support programming in FORTRAN D, a machine-independent parallel programming language intended for use with both distributed-memory and shared-memory parallel computers.

Cooper, Keith D.↗

Local and Global Bifurcations of Flow Fields During Physical Vapor Transport: Application to a Microgravity Experiment

The local bifurcation of the flow field, during physical vapor transport for a parametric range of experimental interest, shows that its dynamical state ranges from steady to aperiodic. Comparison of computationally predicted velocity profiles with laser doppler velocimetry measurements shows reasonable agreement in both magnitude and planform. Correlation of experimentally measured crystal quality with the predicted dynamical state of the flow field shows a degradation of quality with an increase in Rayleigh number. The global bifurcation of the flow field corresponding to low crystal quality indicates the presence of a traveling wave for Ra = 1.09 x 10(exp 5). For this Rayleigh number threshold a chaotic transport state occurs. However, a microgravity environment for this case effectively stabilizes the flow to diffusive-advective and provides the setting to grow crystals with optimal quality.

Duval, W. M. B.↗

Time-Extended Payoffs for Collectives of Autonomous Agents

A collective is a set of self-interested agents which try to maximize their own utilities, along with a a well-defined, time-extended world utility function which rates the performance of the entire system. In this paper, we use theory of collectives to design time-extended payoff utilities for agents that are both aligned with the world utility, and are "learnable", i.e., the agents can readily see how their behavior affects their utility. We show that in systems where each agent aims to optimize such payoff functions, coordination arises as a byproduct of the agents selfishly pursuing their own goals. A game theoretic analysis shows that such payoff functions have the net effect of aligning the Nash equilibrium, Pareto optimal solution and world utility optimum, thus eliminating undesirable behavior such as agents working at cross-purposes. We then apply collective-based payoff functions to the token collection in a gridworld problem where agents need to optimize the aggregate value of tokens collected across an episode of finite duration (i.e., an abstracted version of rovers on Mars collecting scientifically interesting rock samples, subject to power limitations). We show that, regardless of the initial token distribution, reinforcement learning agents using collective-based payoff functions significantly outperform both natural extensions of single agent algorithms and global reinforcement learning solutions based on "team games".

Tumer, Kagan↗

Using Data Assimilation Methods for Prediction of Solar Activity

The variability of solar magnetic activity known as the 11-­‐year solar cycles has the longest history of observations. These solar cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth’s space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-­‐term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and long-­‐term sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of the solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Solar Activity↗

Parametric Modeling and Economic Analysis of a 2MW th 3-Stream sCO 2 Heat Exchanger

Here, this paper presents the design and cost optimization of a novel 2MW th 3-stream sCO2 plate-fin heat exchanger. This heat exchanger design is unique in that it uses reduced metal oxide particle-to-sCO2 heat exchanger for cost-effective energy storage applications. The design uses low velocity, laminar air as the re-oxidizing reactant to transfer the heat of the re-oxidizing reaction to a sCO2 power loop. The design of the heat exchanger is based on a 2-D, 3-fluid plate/fin heat transfer model. The model parameterizes the size, shape, and number of passages of the heat exchanger to calculate the temperature profile, pressure drop, and fluid velocities of all three fluids. Global heat exchanger parameters such as the effectiveness and total heat transferred to the sCO2 are then calculated for overall performance. Due to the value and increased use of sCO2 heat exchangers in power cycles, a cost model of the system based on the unique high temperature/high pressure operating conditions was created using quotes from reference projects and market analysis. These quoted air-to-sCO2 heat exchangers are then processed using multiple weighting factors pertinent to heat exchanger design, including heat exchanger type, maximum temperature, differential pressures, fluids, duty, and more. These factors are then used in an exponential function in order to generate a parameterized cost curve. The design and cost of the heat exchanger are then optimized using the SMPSO genetic algorithm in Python. The optimization objectives for the system are to maximize the overall system effectiveness, including an air recuperator for preheating, and to minimize unit costs. Additional constraints are added to the system for the sCO2 and air pressure drops, air velocity to reduce particle entrainment, and the length and volume of the heat exchanger.

Cost Model↗

Kernel-based global sensitivity analysis obtained from a single data set

Results from global sensitivity analysis (GSA) often guide the understanding of complicated input–output systems. Kernel-based GSA methods have recently been proposed for their capability of treating a broad scope of complex systems. In this paper, we develop a new set of kernel GSA tools when only a single set of input–output data is available. Three key advances are made: (1) A new numerical estimator is proposed that demonstrates an empirical improvement over previous procedures. (2) A computational method for generating inner statistical functions from a single data set is presented. (3) A theoretical extension is made to define conditional sensitivity indices, which reveal the degree that the inputs carry shared information about the output when inherent input–input correlations are present. Utilizing these conditional sensitivity indices, a decomposition is derived for the output uncertainty based on what is called the optimal learning sequence of the input variables, which remains consistent when correlations exist between the input variables. Further, while these advances cover a range of GSA subjects, a common single data set numerical solution is provided by a technique known as the conditional mean embedding of distributions. The new methodology is implemented on benchmark systems to demonstrate the provided insights.

42 ENGINEERING↗

LCOE*: Re-Thinking LCOE for Photovoltaic Systems

Solar industry is working towards reducing the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). The LCOE formulation includes various implicitly connected cost and physical design parameters. This entails complex cost analyses by economists, and electrical analysis and energy yield calculations of solar farms by device physicists/technologists. The standard formulation requires a constant exchange of information to optimize the design of a specific farm. In this paper, we present a fundamental reformulation of LCOE (in terms of LCOE*) to deconvolve the cost vs. energy yield analysis so that economists and technologists can work independently towards minimizing LCOE. We validate our LCOE* formulation by comparing LCOE calculated by the traditional vs. new method. We further provide a global analysis of LCOE* as an illustrative example. This LCOE* will accelerate new technology development (e.g. bifacial PV) by allowing a rapid and transparent analysis of its cost-performance trade-off.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Image-analysis techniques for determination of morphology and kinematics in arctic sea ice

SAR data have been used to study sea ice with respect to its motion and formation/deformation. With the prospect of the Alaska SAR Facility development in the near future, there is a great need for robust and efficient sea-ice analysis techniques. This paper presents a sea-ice motion analysis technique that can be used for: (1) local motion analysis of a selected ice patch, and (2) a global ice motion over the entire image area. In order to meet the operational speed requirement (over fifty images per day) a sea-ice motion analysis technique has been developed which requires very little human interaction. The proposed technique uses a subset of easily distinguishable features to predict global motion characteristics. The developed technique is applied to two pairs of SEASAT SAR images, one pair with a minor motion of 'ice pack' and another with a larger and discontinuous motion of 'fast ice'. The new approach enables the development of a set of computer-aided tools for feature selection and registration and the implementation of an optimal search strategy for automatic template matching via a motion prediction model.

Lee, Meemong↗

Implicit solvers for unstructured meshes

Implicit methods were developed and tested for unstructured mesh computations. The approximate system which arises from the Newton linearization of the nonlinear evolution operator is solved by using the preconditioned GMRES (Generalized Minimum Residual) technique. Three different preconditioners were studied, namely, the incomplete LU factorization (ILU), block diagonal factorization, and the symmetric successive over relaxation (SSOR). The preconditioners were optimized to have good vectorization properties. SSOR and ILU were also studied as iterative schemes. The various methods are compared over a wide range of problems. Ordering of the unknowns, which affects the convergence of these sparse matrix iterative methods, is also studied. Results are presented for inviscid and turbulent viscous calculations on single and multielement airfoil configurations using globally and adaptively generated meshes.

Venkatakrishnan, V.↗

Research in Satellite-Fiber Network Interoperability

This four part report evaluated the performance of high data rate transmission links using the ACTS satellite, and to provide a preparatory test framework for two of the space science applications that have been approved for tests and demonstrations as part of the overall ACTS program. The test plan will provide guidance and information necessary to find the optimal values of the transmission parameters and then apply these parameters to specific applications. The first part will focus on the satellite-to-earth link. The second part is a set of tests to study the performance of ATM on the ACTS channel. The third and fourth parts of the test plan will cover the space science applications, Global Climate Modeling and Keck Telescope Acquisition Modeling and Control.

Edelson, Burt↗