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At least 1,459 records · Page 81

Accelerating high-strain continuum-scale brittle fracture simulations with machine learning

Failure in brittle materials under dynamic loading conditions is a result of the propagation and coalescence of microcracks. Simulating this discrete crack evolution at the continuum level is computationally expensive or, in some cases, intractable, resulting in the need to make broad assumptions or neglect key physics. In this work, we have developed an approach using machine learning that overcomes the current inability to represent meso-scale physics at the macro-scale. Our approach leverages damage and stress data from a computationally expensive high-fidelity model that explicitly resolves microcrack behavior to build an inexpensive machine learning emulator. Once trained, the machine learning emulator is used to predict the evolution of crack length statistics, which then informs a continuum-scale constitutive model. This results in a significant speed-up of the workflow by four orders of magnitude. Both the machine learning emulator and the continuum-scale model are validated against the high-fidelity model and experimental data, respectively, showing excellent agreement. There are two key findings. The first is that we can reduce the dimensionality of the problem, establishing that the machine learning emulator only needs the length of the longest crack and one of the maximum stress components to capture the necessary physics. Another compelling finding is that the emulator can be trained in one experimental setting and transferred successfully to predict behavior in a different setting.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Monte Carlo simulation of order-disorder transition in refractory high entropy alloys: A data-driven approach

High entropy alloys (HEAs) are a series of novel materials that demonstrate many exceptional mechanical properties. To understand the origin of these attractive properties, it is important to investigate the thermodynamics and elucidate the evolution of various chemical phases. In this work, we introduce a machine learning approach to construct the effective Hamiltonian and study the thermodynamics of HEAs through canonical Monte Carlo simulation. The main characteristic of our method is to use pairwise interactions between atoms as the machine learning features and systematically improve the representativeness of the dataset using active learning from the Monte Carlo samples. We find this method produces highly robust and accurate effective Hamiltonians that give less than 0.1 mRy test error for all the three refractory HEAs: MoNbTaW, MoNbTaVW, and MoNbTaTiW. Using replica exchange to speed up the MC simulation, we calculated the specific heats and short-range order parameters in a wide range of temperatures. For all the studied materials, we find there are two major order-disorder transitions occurring respectively at T 1 and T 2 , where T 1 is near room temperature but T 2 is much higher. Further, we demonstrate that the transition at T 1 is caused by W and Nb while the one at T 2 is caused by the other elements. By comparing with experiments, the results demonstrate that the order-disorder transitions have a profound impact on the strength and ductility of HEAs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Saddle point sampling using scaled normal coordinates

The sampling of saddle points (SPs) on a potential energy surface (PES) is critical for describing the dynamics and transport properties of materials. In this paper we propose a saddle point search (SPS) method that enables efficient sampling of practically meaningful SPs around a local minimum by converting the PES to the scaled normal coordinates (SNCs), together with the dimer method. We find that the pathway leading to a SP using SNCs is highly efficient and is independent of the system size. This results in the significantly increased SPS efficiency and the enhanced possibility of a complete catalog of the SPs. In addition, we perform SPSs using the SNCs for the diffusion of a vacancy and a dumbbell in body-centered cubic Fe and demonstrate (1) the required number of system force evaluations for a SPS decreases by at least an order of magnitude, (2) the effects of the system size on the number of force evaluations are greatly decreased, and (3) the effects of the number of atoms involved in the SPS on the probability of finding practically meaningful SPs is mostly eliminated. We also discuss the computational cost of introducing the SNCs. It should be highlighted that the SNCs could also be applied to other minimum-mode following methods, demonstrating the general versatility of the proposed method.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A phase-field study of stainless-steel oxidation from high-temperature carbon dioxide exposure

An electrochemical phase-field model has been developed to investigate the oxidation mechanisms of the 21-2N valve stainless steel alloy exposed to carbon dioxide at 973 K. Three oxide phases observed in oxidation experiments are included in the model: Mn 3 O 4 , Cr 2 O 3 , and MnCr 2 O 4 . Local charge neutrality and the conserved current condition are assumed to include the impact of the electric potential on oxidation, though it is found to be negligible when the system is electrically isolated. The sensitivity of the oxidation processes to the values of the diffusion mobilities is examined, and the oxidation rate is calibrated against experimental data by modifying the sensitive mobilities. We find that both inward oxygen and outward metal diffusion are important for oxidation. Furthermore, by investigating the impact of the order of the initial oxide layers, we find that Cr 2 O 3 serves as a barrier to outward Mn diffusion. Moreover, controlling the initial oxide layer order can be used to limit oxidation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The microscopic mechanisms of high temperature oxidation of Haynes 282

Nickel-based superalloy finds widespread applications in aerospace and extreme environments. They are known for their high temperature oxidation resistance under extended periods. However, the oxide formation and evolution which sets the stages for the later parabolic oxidation kinetics is not fully understood. This paper aims to provide new insights into the transient stage oxidation mechanism and kinetics of a typical Ni-based superalloy (Haynes 282). While tracking the chemical and microstructural evolution under micrometer scale at 800°C, we show that the oxide scale and its grain boundary species change significantly during the initial stages of oxidation and can have a profound impact on the oxidation kinetics. Cr 2 O 3 forms initially at the grain boundary along with minor amount of Al 2 O 3 . Then, the grain boundary region is enriched with copious amounts TiO 2 while Cr migrates away from the grain boundary. A noticeable change in the isothermal oxidation kinetics observed likely results from a mechanistic change from uniform surface oxidation to preferential outward diffusion of Ti 4+ ions through the grain boundary. Through first-principles calculations combined with energy dispersive spectroscopy, we confirmed the preferential outward diffusion of Ti 4+ ions as the diffusion barrier is lower for Ti than Cr along the grain boundaries. In conclusion, these findings highlight the critical role of early-stage grain boundary oxidation dynamics in dictating the long-term oxidation resistance of Ni-based superalloys and provide a foundation for future strategies to enhance their performance in extreme environments.

DFT↗

Improved stellarator permanent magnet designs through combined discrete and continuous optimizations

A common optimization problem in the areas of magnetized plasmas and fusion energy is the design of magnets to produce a given three-dimensional magnetic field distribution to high precision. When designing arrays of permanent magnets for stellarator plasma confinement, such problems have tens of thousands of degrees of freedom whose solutions, for practical reasons, should be constrained to discrete spaces. We perform a direct comparison between two algorithms that have been developed previously for this purpose, and demonstrate that composite procedures that apply both algorithms in sequence can produce substantially improved results. One approach uses a continuous, quasi-Newton procedure to optimize the dipole moments of a set of magnets and then projects the solution onto a discrete space. The second uses an inherently discrete greedy optimization procedure that has been enhanced and generalized for this work. Further, the approaches are both applied to design arrays cubic rare-Earth permanent magnets to confine a quasi-axisymmetric plasma with a magnetic field on axis of 0.5 T. The first approach tends to find solutions with higher field accuracy, whereas the second can find solutions with substantially (up to 30%) fewer magnets. When the approaches are combined, they can obtain solutions with magnet quantities comparable to the second approach while matching the field accuracy of the first.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Accelerating multicanonical sampling with irreversibility

Flat-histogram Monte Carlo simulations are well-established, robust methods to perform random walks in a physical observable or parameter space, making them suitable for finding ground states or studying phase transitions in complex systems in statistical physics. However, their efficiency can be limited by the time to attain the desired flat distribution, which is generally unknown prior to the simulations. In particular, they might suffer from slowing down towards the end of a simulation due to the diffusive nature of random walks. In this work we apply irreversibility to the multicanonical Monte Carlo method via the lifting approach to alleviate this behavior. We achieve a 2–4 times speedup in ground-state search for a two-dimensional (2D) Ising model, and up to an order of magnitude of speedup for finding the ground-state energy in an Edwards–Anderson spin glass, compared to traditional multicanonical sampling. In conclusion, the round-trip times between ground states show a narrower distribution and are significantly shorter compared to the reversible counterpart, suggesting that a lower convergence time with a smaller time variance is feasible.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Systematics in the XENON1T data: The 15-keV anti-axion

The XENON1T collaboration Aprile et al. [2020] has found an excess of electron recoil events in their Science Run 1 data below ~7 keV with a spectral shape consistent with that expected from a solar-axion-induced signal. The claimed statistical significance of the solar-axion model over the null hypothesis is 3.5σ. In this work we provide suggestive evidence for mismodeling in the electron recoil data that may decrease the local significance of the axion model. To reach this conclusion, we search for a signal with the spectral template of the solar axion model, but shifted to higher (unphysical) energies above ~7 keV. We find that the distribution of significances found from this side-band analysis does not follow the expected chi-square distribution. For example, we find a high-significance feature in the data, with a global $p$-value $p≈0.026$, when the solar axion model is shifted upwards in energy by ~15 keV and allowed to have a negative normalization. We argue that such statistical tests, if performed a priori, provide a data-driven way to test and potentially account for systematic uncertainties on the background model in low-threshold dark matter experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Challenges for the statistical gravitational-wave method to measure the Hubble constant

Gravitational waves (GW) can be employed as standard sirens that will soon measure the Hubble constant with sufficient precision to weigh in on the ~5σ Hubble tension. Most GW sources will have no identified electromagnetic counterpart, leading to uncertainty in the redshift of the source, and in turn a degeneracy between host galaxy distance, redshift, and H 0 . In the case where no electromagnetic counterparts are identified, it has been proposed that a statistical canvassing of candidate GW hosts, found in a large galaxy survey for example, can be used to accurately constrain the Hubble constant. We study and simulate this "galaxy voting" method to compute H 0 . Here, we find that the Hubble constant posterior is in general biased relative to the true value even when making optimistic assumptions about the statistical properties of the sample. Using the MICECAT light-cone catalog, we find that the bias in the H0 posteriors depends on the realization of the underlying galaxy sample and the precision of the GW source distance measurement.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Testing the parametric model for self-interacting dark matter using matched halos in cosmological simulations

Here, we systemically evaluate the performance of the self-interacting dark matter (SIDM) halo model proposed in Ref.Yang et al. (2023) with matched halos from high-resolution cosmological CDM and SIDM simulations. The model incorporates SIDM effects along mass evolution histories of CDM halos and it is applicable to both isolated halos and subhalos. We focus on the accuracy of the model in predicting halo density profiles at z = 0 and the evolution of maximum circular velocity. We find the model predictions agree with the simulations within 10%–50% for most of the simulated (sub)halos, 50%–100% for extreme cases. This indicates that the model effectively captures the gravothermal evolution of the halos with very strong, velocity-dependent self-interactions. For an example application, we apply the model to study the impact of various SIDM scenarios on strong lensing perturber systems, demonstrating its utility in predicting SIDM effects for small-scale structure analyses. Our findings confirm that the model is an effective tool for mapping CDM halos into their SIDM counterparts.

Yang, Daneng [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing↗

De-Risking High-Recovery Brackish Water Desalination via Flow Reversal and Feed Flushing Using Techno-Economic Assessment

Novel desalination technologies have demonstrated enhanced performance and improved financial metrics over existing processes adopted by industry. Establishing quantitative performance targets is essential for achieving financial benefits over the current state of the art. Herein, we demonstrate how WaterTAP, a techno-economic assessment (TEA) tool, can be used to identify minimum performance metrics necessary to achieve financial benefit over using existing processes. This study evaluates the feasibility of increasing water recovery at the Chino Desalter I above 90 % through the addition of a third variable configuration reverse osmosis (VCRO) stage. Sensitivity analyses revealed flow reversal frequency, feed flushing volume (used as a cleaning step), and membrane lifespan are key factors influencing the financial viability of the VCRO process. The TEA analysis demonstrated that the system must achieve a recovery of 84 % and a 1-year membrane lifespan to have a breakeven LCOW, while achieving 90 % recovery can ultimately reduce the LCOW by 16 %. Notably, a trade-off between decreasing frictional losses and increased osmotic pressure across the recovery range, resulted in a stable specific energy consumption across the recovery range, enabling meaningful LCOW reductions without an energy penalty, a key finding that contrasts with conventional RO. This work demonstrates how TEA can guide system design by identifying key performance targets and exploring trade-offs, enabling data-driven decisions to de-risk innovative processes. These findings underscore the importance of leveraging TEA to evaluate scaling mitigation strategies and optimize inland desalination systems for sustainable and cost-effective operation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Clinically applicable 53-Gene prognostic assay predicts chemotherapy benefit in gastric cancer: A multicenter study

BACKGROUND:We previously established a 53-gene prognostic signature for overall survival (OS) of gastric cancer patients. This retrospective multi-center study aimed to develop a clinically applicable gene expression detection assay and to investigate the prognostic value of this signature. METHODS:A TCGA gastric adenocarcinoma cohort (TCGA-STAD) was used for comparing 53-gene signature with other gene signatures. A high-throughput mRNA hybridization gene expression assay was developed to quantify the expression of 53-genes in formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissues of 540 patients enrolled from three hospitals. 180 patents were randomly selected from two hospitals to build a prognostic prediction model based on the 53-gene signature using leave-p-out (one-third out) cross-validation method together with Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier analysis, and the model was assessed on three validation cohorts. FINDINGS:In the evaluation phase, studies based on TCGA-STAD showed that the 53-gene signature was significantly superior to other three prognostic signatures and was independent of TCGA molecular subtypes and clinical factors. For clinical validation and utility, the prognostic scores were generated using the newly developed assay, which was reliable and sensitive, in 100 sampling training sets and were significantly associated with OS in 100 sampling validation sets. The scores were significantly associated with OS in three independent and combined validation cohorts, and in patients with stages II and III/IV. The multivariate Cox regression demonstrated that the prognostic power of the score was independent of clinical factors, consistent with those findings in the TCGA dataset. Finally, patients with good prognostic scores exhibited significantly a better 5-year OS rate from adjuvant FOLFOX chemotherapy after surgery than from other chemotherapies. INTERPRETATION:The 53-gene prognostic score system is clinically applicable for predicting the OS of patients independent of clinical factors in gastric cancers, which could also be a promising predictive biomarker for FOLFOX regimen. FUNDING:Chinese National Science and Technology, National Natural Science Foundation and Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Fossil energy deployment through midcentury consistent with 2°C climate stabilization

Energy system transformation scenarios satisfying particular climate stabilization objectives, such as 2°C, suggest that a wide range of fossil energy outcomes could be consistent with such objectives. The underlying drivers of variability in these outcomes cannot, however, be easily separated. This paper attempts to shed light on such drivers using a single, state-of-the-art global integrated assessment model (GCAM) to evaluate the energy system implications of climate stabilization near 2°C. We focus specifically on the role of fossil primary energy through midcentury under different assumptions about carbon capture and storage (CCS) and bioenergy supply. In our scenarios, coal and natural gas primary energy are most sensitive to the availability of CCS, with bioenergy supply having a secondary impact on these sources. Looking across primary energy sources, we find that primary energy from coal declines by midcentury relative to 2015 in all GCAM mitigation scenarios considered here, whereas primary energy from natural gas and oil increases by midcentury relative to 2015 in most of the scenarios in which CCS is available. We explain these results in terms of fundamental energy-economic relationships and discuss the implications of these findings for broader energy policy and planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Equity implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of energy expenditures across income classes under economy-wide deep decarbonization policies

With companies, states, and countries targeting net-zero emissions around midcentury, there are questions about how these targets alter household welfare and finances, including distributional effects across income groups. This paper examines the distributional dimensions of technology transitions and net-zero policies with a focus on welfare impacts across household incomes. The analysis uses a model intercomparison with a range of energy-economy models using harmonized policy scenarios reaching economy-wide, net-zero CO 2 emissions across the United States in 2050. Here we employ a novel linking approach that connects output from detailed energy system models with survey microdata on energy expenditures across income classes to provide distributional analysis of net-zero policies. Although there are differences in model structure and input assumptions, we find broad agreement in qualitative trends in policy incidence and energy burdens across income groups. Models generally agree that direct energy expenditures for many households will likely decline over time with reference and net-zero policies. However, there is variation in the extent of changes relative to current levels, energy burdens relative to reference levels, and electricity expenditures. Policy design, primarily how climate policy revenues are used, has first-order impacts on distributional outcomes. Net-zero policy costs, in both absolute and relative terms, are unevenly distributed across households, and relative increases in energy expenditures are higher for lowest-income households. However, we also find that recycled revenues from climate policies have countervailing effects when rebated on a per-capita basis, offsetting higher energy burdens and potentially even leading to net progressive outcomes. Model results also show carbon Laffer curves, where revenues from net-zero policies increase but then decline with higher stringencies, which can diminish the progressive effects of climate policies. We also illustrate how using annual income deciles for distributional analysis instead of expenditure deciles can overstate the progressivity of emissions policies by overweighting revenue impacts on the lowest-income deciles.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The role of the iron and steel sector in achieving net zero U.S. CO 2 emissions by 2050

The U.S. steel sector is a hard-to-abate sector because of its heavy dependence on fossil fuels and its high capital requirements. In 2015, the sector was one of the major carbon emitters, contributing 10 % of the U.S. industrial CO 2 emissions. The ability to decarbonize the U.S. iron and steel sector directly affects the ability of the U.S. to achieve economy-wide net zero CO 2 by 2050. In this paper, we use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to analyze different U.S. steel sector decarbonization pathways under varying technology, policy, and demand futures. These pathways provide insights on how various low-carbon steelmaking technologies such as those using carbon capture and storage (CCS), hydrogen, or scrap could help reduce U.S. steel emissions by mid-century. In our primary decarbonization pathway, we find that nearly all of the conventional fossil-based steelmaking capacity is fully integrated with CCS by 2050. However, without CCS availability, almost all of the conventional fossil-based steelmaking is phased-out by 2050 and is replaced by hydrogen-based production. Scrap-based production continues to remain vital across both of these decarbonization pathways. Furthermore, we find that demand reduction could help reduce the required levels of CCS and hydrogen-based production in the decarbonization pathways. Implementation of advanced energy efficiency measures could help substantially reduce the sector's energy usage. Finally, we observe that addressing the embodied carbon transfer associated with steel imports will be crucial for fully decarbonizing the U.S. steel sector.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The relative influences of hydrologic information and dams’ hydropower scheduling decisions on electricity price forecasts

Price dynamics in wholesale electricity markets are driven by supply and demand. In markets with hydroelectric dams, the timing and amount of hydropower offered can influence prices in similar ways to wind and solar power. Unlike variable renewable energy, however, the supply of hydropower in wholesale markets is a function of both water availability and operational decisions at dams. Dam operators maximize revenues in wholesale markets by aligning generation with the periods of highest expected prices, and these scheduling decisions may in turn influence prices. Here, we examine the relative importance of two types of information in predicting forward electricity prices: a) water availability at dams, in the form of short-to-medium-range hydrological forecasts; and b) hourly scheduling decisions at dams. Using softly coupled hydrologic, hydropower scheduling, and power systems models spanning the U.S. Western Interconnection, we quantify the importance of hydrologic forecast accuracy in correctly predicting wholesale electricity prices and compare this with the influence of dam operators’ own hourly scheduling decisions on realized market prices. We find that aligning hydropower generation schedules with the periods of high forecasted prices causes larger, inadvertent price forecast errors than imperfect hydrologic forecasts. This suggests that knowledge of how water is managed by dam operators within the week is more important than weekly inflow forecast errors when predicting forward electricity prices. Our findings have implications for optimal hydropower scheduling by region. Specifically, accounting for price effects is critical in markets dominated by hydropower capacity.

Electricity markets↗

On the dynamics of the fluoroethylene carbonate generated solid electrolyte interphase on silicon anodes during calendar life aging

Here, the widespread use of silicon (Si)-rich anodes in lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) is impeded by an unstable solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) incurring insufficient cell life. Fluoroethylene carbonate (FEC) additive in the electrolyte significantly improves cycle life. However, the gains on calendar life remain unclear; the SEI structure still undergoes detrimental alterations at rest. Thus, elucidating the SEI dynamics during calendar aging is critical to mitigating time-dependent capacity degradation. ATR-FTIR, XPS, and ToF-SIMS are used herein to investigate the SEI structure before and after calendar aging. Si cycled without FEC exhibits no notable SEI chemistry changes Pre- and Post-aging, leaving poor passivation as the main failure pathway. Conversely, the FEC-SEI starts as short oligomeric species from FEC/EC electroreduction prior to aging; after calendar aging, polymerized carbonates become consistently more prominent. Unexpectedly, the deposition of self-polymerized FEC species results from time exposure to the delithiated Si specifically as opposed to the lithiated surface. This unexpected finding is supported by another recent Si calendar-aging research, which albeit not investigating FEC, finds global failure of the SEI upon delithiation resulting in ∼247 fold more reactive surface compared to the lithiated.

Batteries↗

Building commissioning costs and savings across three decades and 1500 North American buildings

B.V. Building commissioning (Cx) is a process for assuring efficient building operations that can be applied to new construction and existing buildings, resulting in energy and non-energy benefits. Quantifying the benefits of commissioning is challenging, but a 2009 study of 643 commercial buildings provided a solid initial data set to which we added 839 additional buildings for a significantly expanded and updated meta-analysis representing 34.7 million square meters (373 million square feet) of floor area. Since 2009 the commissioning industry has continued to grow, driven by building codes, utility programs, and rising awareness of commissioning benefits. In parallel, building controls have become more sophisticated, and analytics software has emerged to assist with commissioning. We find that delivery mechanism and market segment are key determinants of outcomes, although significant and cost-effective savings are found across the spectrum. Median primary energy savings for Cx projects in existing buildings ranged from 5 percent for those conducted under utility programs, 9 percent for monitoring-based commissioning utility programs (i.e., augmented with submetering and diagnostics), and 14 percent for Cx projects outside of utility programs. Across all project types, median savings ranged from 3 percent for the lodging market segment to 16 percent for public order and safety facilities. Outcomes did not vary significantly by building size or by market segment. Energy savings are rarely estimated for new construction commissioning. We found that the median costs of Cx were lower for the 2018 sample than for the 2009 sample—$\$$2.85 per square meter ($\$$0.26 per square foot) for existing buildings (a 33 percent reduction) and $\$$8.78 per square meter ($\$$0.82 per square foot) for new construction (a reduction of almost 50 percent). The median simple payback time for existing buildings was 1.7 years, with a 25th–75th percentile range of 0.8–3.5 years. Overall, this article summarizes these and other key findings, and discusses how the 2018 data reflects shifts in commissioning practice and outcomes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗