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NASA NTRS2024

Future of the Search for Life: Workshop Report

The 2-week, virtual Future of the Search for Life science and engineering workshop brought together more than 100 scientists, engineers, and technologists in March and April 2022 to provide their expert opinion on the interconnections between life-detection science and technology. Participants identified the advances in measurement and sampling technologies they believed to be necessary to perform in situ searches for life elsewhere in our Solar System, 20 years or more in the future. Among suggested measurements for these searches, those pertaining to three potential indicators of life termed “dynamic disequilibrium,” “catalysis,” and “informational polymers” were identified as particularly promising avenues for further exploration. For these three indicators, small breakout groups of participants identified measurement needs and knowledge gaps, along with corresponding constraints on sample handling (acquisition and processing) approaches for a variety of environments on Enceladus, Europa, Mars, and Titan. Despite the diversity of these environments, sample processing approaches all tend to be more complex than those that have been implemented on missions or envisioned for mission concepts to date. The approaches considered by workshop breakout groups progress from nondestructive to destructive measurement techniques, and most involve the need for fluid (especially liquid) sample processing. Sample processing needs were identified as technology gaps. These gaps include technology and associated sampling strategies that allow the preservation of the thermal, mechanical, and chemical integrity of the samples upon acquisition; and to optimize the sample information obtained by operating suites of instruments on common samples. Crucially, the interplay between science-driven life-detection strategies and their technological implementation highlights the need for an unprecedented level of payload integration and extensive collaboration between scientists and engineers, starting from concept formulation through mission deployment of life-detection instruments and sample processing systems.

Marc Neveu↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Future Lightning Instruments for Weather and Climate Monitoring From LEO

Lightning is not only a natural hazard, but it also holds information about physical processes at work in deep convection and influences atmospheric oxidants that modulate ozone and methane. Hence, spaceborne lightning observations are essential for monitoring extreme events and feedbacks in Earth’s climate system. Low-Earth orbiting (LEO) lightning mapping instruments established a 25-year record of global lightning activity and resulted in a wealth of studies that motivated its designation as an Essential Climate Variable by the World Meteorological Organization. Although geostationary observations of lightning have become increasingly available since 2017, LEO lightning mappers continue to serve critical needs given their unique vantage point and acceptance as a unifying reference for geostationary lightning mapper and ground-based global lightning datasets. At the close of 2023, the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) will cease operations on the International Space Station, which introduces a critical gap in LEO-based monitoring of global lightning activity. To address this need, NASA is developing new lightning mapping technology that enables future LEO-based satellite missions. Existing LEO-based lightning mappers rely on narrowband optical emissions centered on 777.4-nm and detectors that capture 500 images per second to detect lightning both day and night. Lightning can also produce optical emissions in a narrowband centered on 337-nm without any corresponding emissions at the traditionally used near-infrared (NIR) wavelength. These near-ultraviolet (UV) emissions are associated with earlier stage electrical breakdown (e.g., streamers), may frequent intense regions of deep convective storms, and may be a significant source of nitrogen oxide production in the upper atmosphere. A new lightning mapping instrument called the CubeSat Lightning Imaging and Detection Experiment (CLIDE) is being designed at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center to use high-speed, scientific CMOS image sensors capable of detecting lightning’s transient optical emissions in the near-UV and NIR during both daylit and nighttime scenes. This will extend the record of global lightning activity and help pave the way for future small satellite missions that combine radio and optical lightning detectors to obtain novel three-dimensional maps of lightning on a global scale, which can revolutionize the way lightning is used to monitor weather and understand changes in climate.

lightning↗
NASA NTRS2023

Future Increases in Amazonia Water 1 Stress from CO2 Physiology and Deforestation

Several different drivers are contributing to climate change within the Amazon basin, including forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols, plant physiology responses to rising CO 2 , and deforestation. Attribution among these drivers has not been quantified for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate simulations. Here we identify the contribution of CO 2 physiology and deforestation to future hydroclimate change in the Amazon basin by combining information from four experiments and eight different Earth system models in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Together, forcing from CO 2 physiology and deforestation account for about 44% of the projected annual precipitation decline, 48% of surface relative humidity decline and 11% of warming over the Amazon basin by 2100 for SSP3-7.0. Other Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 SSP simulations have similar contributions from the two drivers. Insight from our attribution analysis can aid in identifying research priorities aimed at reducing uncertainty in future projections of water availability, carbon dynamics and wildfire risk.

Yue Li↗
NASA NTRS2024

Future CH4 Budgets as Modelled By A Fully Coupled Earth System Model Using Prescribed GHG Concentrations vs. Interactive CH4 Sources and Sinks

We have used the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth system model GISS-E2.1 to study the future budgets and trends of global and regional CH4 under different emission scenarios. GISS-E2.1 is one of the few ESMs that can be driven by anthropogenic CH4 emissions, as well as interactive natural sources such as wetlands, and can simulate the tropospheric CH4 chemistry. In frame of the recent short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) assessment by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), we used the GISS-E2.1 model with prescribed long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. In the present study, we have supplemented these simulations using the interactive CH4 sources and sinks in order to quantify the model performance and the sensitivity to CH4 sources and sinks. We have used the Current Legislation (CLE) and the Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) emission scenarios from the Eclipse V6b emission database to simulate the future chemical composition and climate impacts from 2015 to 2050. We have also simulated 1995-2014 in order to evaluate the model performance following the AMAP-SLCF protocol. The prescribed GHG version underestimates the Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) surface CH4 observations during the period between 1995 and 2023 by 1% [-8.4%-2.0%], with a correlation (r) of 0.71 [-0.41 0.99]. The largest underestimations are over the continental emission regions such as North America, Europe, and Asia, while biases are smallest over oceans. On the other hand, the simulation with interactive sources and sinks underestimates the GAW observations more than the prescribed simulation, by 18.5% [-25% -10.4%], with a lower r of 0.36 [-0.82 0.93]. Opposite to the prescribed simulation, the biases are largest over oceans and smaller over the continents, however they are still larger over land than the prescribed simulation. The interactive simulation, with large sources virtually over land and strong sink over oceans, has a land/ocean ratio larger than 1 while the prescribed simulation has this ratio equal to 1 as it distributes the global prescribed CH4 concentration equally in longitude over a given latitude. This clearly shows that the interactive sources and sinks should be represented in models in order to realistically simulate the chemical composition and the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere. As expected, the MFR scenario simulates lower global surface CH4 concentrations and burdens compared to the CLE scenario, however in both cases, global surface CH4 and burden continue to increase through 2050 compared to present day. In the CLE scenario, increases are largest over the equatorial belt, in particular over India and East China, while the MFR scenario shows increases over the whole Southern Hemisphere, however much smaller compared to CLE. Finally, the interactive simulation shows that the chemical CH4 sink increases in the CLE scenario, while it slightly decreases in the MFR, leading to a larger CH4 lifetime in the MFR scenario compared to in the CLE scenario.

CH4↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Starling Swarm Mission – Technology Objectives, Status and Future Applications

NASA’s Starling mission is advancing the readiness of technologies for cooperative groups of space craft referred to as swarms. The Starling swarm of four 6U spacecraft launched in July 2023, and is completing its tests in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) of four key technologies that will enable future swarm missions: onboard maneuver planning and execution to adjust the swarm formation; establishing and maintaining an adhoc network in space; relative and absolute orbit determination using optical sensors; autonomous collaboration between spacecraft for establishing and conducting a science observation plan. A mission extension is also being prepared to demonstrate a space traffic management architecture to address the large and rapidly growing number of space craft in LEO. In this presentation, the objectives of the Starling mission and its extension will be reviewed along with the latest status and mission outcomes. The presentation will also look at the revolutionary potential for swarms in future science and exploration missions and the impact to operations.

SpaceOps Starling Swarm Distributed Spacecraft Net↗
NASA NTRS2022

Impact of Future Low-Emissions Combustor Technology on Acoustic Scaling Laws

A first-of-its-kind examination of broadband noise associated with a far-term advanced low-emission aero-combustor concept is presented. Due to design trends and expected cycle changes for future aircraft propulsion systems, noise generated by sources in the combustor are expected to become of increasing significance for airport-community noise. The paper assesses the impact on legacy semi-empirical noise-prediction methods from the expected radical departures from current combustor operating conditions and designs, such as fuel-air distribution and flame anchoring techniques. Such methods are essential in system-level noise assessments at the preliminary design stage for advanced air transports to assure that overall environmental goals are met. Detailed unsteady pressure measurements, obtained in a fundamental combustion noise experiment utilizing a combustor rig at relevant pressures and temperatures, are analyzed. In addition to an advanced far-term low-emissions concept, a reference configuration with the test section arranged to model a modern combustor sector was also studied. For the test rig in the current-generation configuration, the measured broadband acoustic data are reasonably well described by the acoustic-power scaling laws used in legacy semi-empirical noise-prediction methods. For the future-advanced configuration, the legacy scaling laws, with some notable exceptions, provide correct trends, but with much less accuracy

aeroacoustics↗
NASA NTRS2024

Demonstration of Portable X-ray Fluorescence Spectroscopy for High-Throughput In-Situ Quantification of Surface Lunar Dust for Testing and Future Surface Missions

In this paper, we present a new method of quantification for surface concentrations of lunar dust and lunar simulant for use and deployment for development testing and potential eventual use for verification and development testing and lunar surface missions. This technique demonstrates the use of portable X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy (pXRF) to quantify lunar dust loading on surfaces using an adaption of existing pXRF techniques. This paper shows the background in current methodologies for quantification of lunar dust in tests as well as current and potential future techniques for lunar surface missions, as well as current applications of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) pXRF technology. The methodology for adapting current pXRF techniques is presented, followed by a demonstration of this new method on a variety of materials related to spaceflight or lunar surface missions. This technique shows high fidelity for immediate utilization as well as a demonstration of high potential for future surface missions.

Spectroscopy↗
NASA NTRS2024

How Can Future Climate Change Affect the Corn Production System in Nebraska, USA?

The increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns have affected both crop yields and water requirements challenging agricultural systems in sustaining high crop yields and ensuring water and food security. In the present study, we evaluated the impact of climate change on the corn production under irrigated and rainfed cropping systems in Nebraska considering four climate zones until 2100 as a case study for the US Corn Belt. Additionally, suggests ways to reduce the impact of climate change on corn yield and water resources. Five global circulation model datasets from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) interconnected to Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), were selected. Three future periods: near (2020–2039), mid (2040–2069), and far future (2070–2100) under SSP226, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios were used to predict the climate changes, crop cycle length, crop yield, and crop water requirement. Additionally, we input annual CO2 concentration scenarios for each SSP scenario to model changes from 2015 to 2100 using the CERES-Maize model. Temperatures are forecasted to rise, precipitation to decline, and crop cycle length to decrease, particularly for SSP370 (up to 49% yield decrease) and SSP585 (up to 67% yield decrease) by 2070–2100. Yields are expected to decline across all scenarios and periods for irrigated and rainfed fields due to the reduction in crop cycle length. Crop water demand is projected to increase, with rainfed systems facing heightened impact due to reduced precipitation. Addressing climate change in Nebraska requires actions like developing new corn varieties to longer the crop season, transitioning to efficient irrigation systems, improving irrigation management for water and food security, and reducing the risk of conflicts over its use. These results open possibilities for discussion about the actions that can be taken to cope with climate change and guarantee water and food security in the US Corn Belt.

CMIP6↗
NASA NTRS2024

Impacts of an Early Morning Low Earth Orbit Observing Platform in A Future Global Observing Network Scenario

Significant changes to the global observing network are expected in the coming decades including the launch of a global ring of geostationary satellites and a reduction in the number of low earth orbit (LEO) platforms. It is anticipated that there may be a gap in the LEO coverage between the planned mid-morning and early afternoon orbits. Here, the utility of an early morning LEO orbit for numerical weather prediction is considered using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE). A global observing network with two LEO platforms including microwave and hyperspectral infrared instruments and three geostationary hyperspectral infrared platforms is considered for a future baseline scenario. Two instruments, a microwave radiometer modeled on the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) and a hyperspectral infrared radiometer modeled on the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), are tested both individually and in conjunction on a new early morning orbit in addition to the future baseline scenario. The microwave instrument is found to have beneficial impacts for up to 4–7 days in the medium range forecast period with beneficial impacts for the infrared instrument for up to 3–5 days. Short-range forecast impacts estimated with Forecast Sensitivity Observation Impacts (FSOI) over the conterminous United States for the early morning orbit are somewhat weaker than for the same instruments in the early afternoon orbit due to the orbital passage being coincident with rawinsondes while the afternoon orbit is coincident with the minima of both rawinsondes and aircraft.

Nikki C Prive↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Explore Information Content Efficiently from Current and Future Hyperspectral Satellite Missions using a Spectral Fingerprinting Method

Hyperspectral remote sensors from current and future missions provide measurements of the Top of Atmosphere (TOA) radiance or reflectance spectra with high information content. For example, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), together with the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) have provided more than 20 years radiance measurements with thousands of spectral channels. These measurements will be continued for the next two decades with the same or more advanced hyperspectral sensors. The upcoming missions such as NASA’s CLARREO Pathfinder (CPF) and ESA’s TRUTHS will provide unprecedented accurate TOA hyperspectral radiance measurements in solar spectral region. Traditional ways to derive Climate Data Records (CDRs) from these measurements are performing spatial and temporal averages of the retrieved Level-2 products. However, it is a time-consuming process to generate decades of Level-2 data from Level-1 data. Furthermore, the differences in Level-2 algorithms used for different satellite sensors will introduce errors in derived CDRs. In this presentation, we will describe a spectral fingerprinting method to generate high-quality CDRs directly from spatiotemporally averaged Level-1 data. By using consistent radiative kernels which contain the spectral information of various atmospheric and surface CDRs, we can reduce the errors due to algorithm inconsistency. Additionally, the spectral fingerprinting method reduces the time needed to generate CDRs by more than three orders of magnitude. This makes it easy to reprocess CDRs once the Level-1 data from different satellites have been improved via either re-calibrations or inter-satellite calibrations. We will present results of applying spectral fingerprinting method to 20-years of AIRS and CrIS data. The resulting CDRs include: 1) vertical profiles of atmospheric temperature and water vapor, 2) cloud properties such as optical depth, effective size, and height, 3) vertical profiles or column amounts for atmospheric trace gases such as O3 and CO, and 4) surface emissivity spectra and skin temperatures. These CDRs will be publicly available at NASA GES DISC in late 2024. The same fingerprinting method is planned to be applied to future CPF and TRUTHS data for solar spectral region.

hyperspectral remote sensing↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Access to Space for NASA Small Sats: Current and Future Needs

Small spacecraft technology advancements have fundamentally shifted how NASA’s Science Mission Directorate (SMD) executes science investigations. To support this approach, the SMD Rideshare Office (SRO) was established in 2020 to lead the definition and implementation of a directorate-wide rideshare strategy. Serving as the central point of contact for coordinating compatible NASA payloads with launch opportunities, the SRO maximizes science, exploration, and technology return on investment by enabling rideshare or other access to space opportunities for small spacecraft on SMD primary mission launches, VADR commercial launch procurements, and other government agency launch opportunities. As NASA seeks to reduce costs and increase the rate of discovery, small satellites and multi manifest access to space have become integral to achieving the agency’s strategic vision. While NASA has created the above-mentioned mechanisms to expand access to space and achieve lower launch costs for its small satellites, many factors have limited full exploit of the opportunity these mechanisms can bring. NASA continues to evolve its mission cultures and technical requirements to adapt and take advantage of burgeoning commercial launch and rideshare advancements. To do so NASA requires collaboration with small satellite manufacturers, principal investigators, and commercial industry partners. Current needs include technical development and design of structurally robust spacecraft buses capable of withstanding varied launch loads, which will increase rideshare interchangeability and versatility. Further, instrument and spacecraft designs must also evolve to handle diverse launch environments and loads factors, while reducing reliance on complex purge and cleanliness constraints, sensitivities to silicones and hydrocarbons, and magnetic requirements. Continued maturation of small and medium launch providers in the near-term is also essential to drive down costs through competition. The current mission selection cadence often complicates the ability to synchronize multiple missions on a single launch. Future needs can include affordable space maneuverability options such as enhanced spacecraft propulsion systems and unique orbital maneuvering capabilities for our individual smallsats or constellations. These emerging capabilities offer a path to unique science orbits for NASA small satellites, but only under the condition that their cost remains affordable and competitive to accommodate inherently smaller mission budgets. Additionally, the projected surge of multiple SMD small satellites launching simultaneously and to unique deep space science orbits necessitates evaluation of expanding deep space communications capabilities. This presentation provides a comprehensive overview of NASA SMD’s access to space landscape and offers further unique insights and discussion, backed by NASA rideshare experiences and lessons learned, on the current and future developments required to unleash the full potential of rideshare opportunities.

Rideshare↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Access to Space for NASA SmallSats: Current and Future Needs

Small spacecraft technology advancements have fundamentally shifted how NASA’s Science Mission Directorate (SMD) executes science investigations. To support this approach, the SMD Rideshare Office (SRO) was established in 2020 to lead the definition and implementation of a directorate-wide rideshare strategy. Serving as the central point of contact for coordinating compatible NASA payloads with launch opportunities, the SRO maximizes science, exploration, and technology return on investment by enabling rideshare or other access to space opportunities for small spacecraft on SMD primary mission launches, VADR commercial launch procurements, and other government agency launch opportunities. As NASA seeks to reduce costs and increase the rate of discovery, small satellites and multi manifest access to space have become integral to achieving the agency’s strategic vision. While NASA has created the above-mentioned mechanisms to expand access to space and achieve lower launch costs for its small satellites, many factors have limited full exploit of the opportunity these mechanisms can bring. NASA continues to evolve its mission cultures and technical requirements to adapt and take advantage of burgeoning commercial launch and rideshare advancements. To do so NASA requires collaboration with small satellite manufacturers, principal investigators, and commercial industry partners. Current needs include technical development and design of structurally robust spacecraft buses capable of withstanding varied launch loads, which will increase rideshare interchangeability and versatility. Further, instrument and spacecraft designs must also evolve to handle diverse launch environments and loads factors, while reducing reliance on complex purge and cleanliness constraints, sensitivities to silicones and hydrocarbons, and magnetic requirements. Continued maturation of small and medium launch providers in the near-term is also essential to drive down costs through competition. The current mission selection cadence often complicates the ability to synchronize multiple missions on a single launch. Future needs can include affordable space maneuverability options such as enhanced spacecraft propulsion systems and unique orbital maneuvering capabilities for our individual smallsats or constellations. These emerging capabilities offer a path to unique science orbits for NASA small satellites, but only under the condition that their cost remains affordable and competitive to accommodate inherently smaller mission budgets. Additionally, the projected surge of multiple SMD small satellites launching simultaneously and to unique deep space science orbits necessitates evaluation of expanding deep space communications capabilities. This presentation provides a comprehensive overview of NASA SMD’s access to space landscape and offers further unique insights and discussion, backed by NASA rideshare experiences and lessons learned, on the current and future developments required to unleash the full potential of rideshare opportunities.

Rideshare↗
DOE OSTI2010

Current and future costs for parabolic trough and power tower systems in the US market.

NREL's Solar Advisor Model (SAM) is employed to estimate the current and future costs for parabolic trough and molten salt power towers in the US market. Future troughs are assumed to achieve higher field temperatures via the successful deployment of low melting-point, molten-salt heat transfer fluids by 2015-2020. Similarly, it is assumed that molten salt power towers are successfully deployed at 100MW scale over the same time period, increasing to 200MW by 2025. The levelized cost of electricity for both technologies is predicted to drop below 11 cents/kWh (assuming a 10% investment tax credit and other financial inputs outlined in the paper), making the technologies competitive in the marketplace as benchmarked by the California MPR. Both technologies can be deployed with large amounts of thermal energy storage, yielding capacity factors as high as 65% while maintaining an optimum LCOE.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2011

Automated Commissioning for Lower-cost, Widely Deployed Building Commissioning of the Future

This chapter takes a brief look at the benefits of commissioning and describes a vision of the future where most of the objectives of commissioning will be accomplished automatically by capabilities built into the building systems themselves. Commissioning will become an activity that is performed continuously rather than periodically, and only repairs requiring replacement or overhaul of equipment will require manual intervention. This chapter then identifies some of the technologies that will be needed to realize this vision and ends with a call for all involved in the enterprise of building commissioning and automation to embrace and dedicate themselves to a future of automated commissioning.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2011

The future of IAEA safeguards: challenges and responses

For nearly two decades, the International Atomic Energy Agency (lAEA) has been transforming its safeguards system to address the challenges posed by undeclared nuclear programs, the associated revelation of an extensive non-State nuclear procurement network and other issues, including past limits to its verification mandate and the burden of noncompliance issues. Implementing the new measures, including those in the Additional Protocol, and integrating new and old safeguards measures, remains a work in progress. Implementation is complicated by factors including the limited teclmological tools that are available to address such issues as safeguarding bulk handling facilities, detection of undeclared facilities/activities, especially related to enrichment, etc. As this process continues, new challenges are arising, including the demands of expanding nuclear power production worldwide, so-called safeguards by design for a new generation of facilities, the possible IAEA role in a fissile material cutoff treaty and other elements of the arms control and disarmament agenda, the possible role in 'rollback' cases, etc. There is no doubt safeguards will need to evolve in the future, as they have over the last decades. In order for the evolutionary path to proceed, there will inter alia be a need to identify technological gaps, especially with respect to undeclared facilities, and ensure they are filled by adapting old safeguards technologies, by developing and introducing new and novel safeguards teclmologies and/or by developing new procedures and protocols. Safeguards will also need to respond to anticipated emerging threats and to future, unanticipated threats. This will require strategic planning and cooperation among Member States and with the Agency. This paper will address challenges to IAEA safeguards and the technological possibilities and R&D strategies needed to meet those challenges in the context of the forty-year evolution of safeguards, including the ongoing transformation of safeguards by the Agency.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2012

AVESTAR Center for clean energy plant operators of the future

Clean energy plants in the modern grid era will increasingly exploit carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), fuel/product flexibility, and load following. Integrated power/process plants will require next generation of well-trained engineering and operations professionals. High-fidelity dynamic simulators are well suited for training, education, and R&D on clean energy plant operations. Combining Operator Training System (OTS) with 3D virtual Immersive Training System (ITS) enables simultaneous training of control room and plant field operators of the future. Strong collaboration between industry, academia, and government is required to address advanced R&D challenges. AVESTAR Center brings together simulation technology and world-class expertise focused on accelerating development of clean energy plants and operators of the future.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2012

Future Prospects of Accelerator Science for Particle Physics

Future advances in understanding fundamental questions of nature require revolutionary developments in accelerator science to allow several orders of magnitude enhancements in terms of energy, intensity, faster timing, and higher resolution. The challenges of the 21st century (energy, power, environment, resources, cost, and space) also play a significant role in the development of accelerator tools. In this overview article, we consider several recent developments and ideas that may become steps in addressing the challenges and which may find their way into designs of accelerator tools of the future.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗