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Power Generation for River and Tidal Generators

Renewable energy sources are the second largest contributor to global electricity production, after fossil fuels. The integration of renewable energy continued to grow in 2014 against a backdrop of increasing global energy consumption and a dramatic decline in oil prices during the second half of the year. As renewable generation has become less expensive during recent decades, and it becomes more accepted by the global population, the focus on renewable generation has expanded from primarily wind and solar to include new types with promising future applications, such as hydropower generation, including river and tidal generation. Today, hydropower is considered one of the most important renewable energy sources. In river and tidal generation, the input resource flow is slower but also steadier than it is in wind or solar generation, yet the level of water turbulent flow may vary from one place to another. This report focuses on hydrokinetic power conversion.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

High Pressure Biomass Gasification

According to the Billion Ton Report, the U.S. has a large supply of biomass available that can supplement fossil fuels for producing chemicals and transportation fuels. Agricultural waste, forest residue, and energy crops offer potential benefits: renewable feedstock, zero to low CO 2 emissions depending on the specific source, and domestic supply availability. Biomass can be converted into chemicals and fuels using one of several approaches: (i) biological platform converts corn into ethanol by using depolymerization of cellulose to form sugars followed by fermentation, (ii) low-temperature pyrolysis to obtain bio-oils which must be treated to reduce oxygen content via HDO hydrodeoxygenation), and (iii) high temperature pyrolysis to produce syngas (CO + H 2 ). This last approach consists of producing syngas using the thermal platform which can be used to produce a variety of chemicals and fuels. The goal of this project was to develop an improved understanding of the gasification of biomass at high pressure conditions and how various gasification parameters might affect the gasification behavior. Since most downstream applications of synags conversion (e.g., alcohol synthesis, Fischer-Tropsch synthesis etc) involve utilizing high pressure catalytic processes, there is an interest in carrying out the biomass gasification at high pressure which can potentially reduce the gasifier size and subsequent downstream cleaning processes. It is traditionally accepted that high pressure should increase the gasification rates (kinetic effect). There is also precedence from coal gasification literature from the 1970s that high pressure gasification would be a beneficial route to consider. Traditional approach of using thermogravimetric analyzer (TGA) or high-pressure themogravimetric analyzer (PTGA) worked well in understanding the gasification kinetics of coal gasification which was useful in designing high pressure coal gasification processes. However, similar approach for biomass gasification was not very useful and was the impetus for this study. Specifically, we aimed this study at three broad objectives: (i) defining operating conditions at which C 2 -C 4 hydrocarbons are formed since these represent loss of carbon efficiency, (ii) understanding the formation of tar species which create downstream processing difficulties in addition of carbon efficiency loss, and (iii) kinetics of biomass gasification where it would be possible to understand the effect of operating conditions and gas phase composition.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Design and Implementation of Geothermal Energy Systems at West Chester University

West Chester University has launched a comprehensive transformation of its campus heating and cooling systems from traditional fossil fuels to geothermal. This change will significantly decrease the institution's carbon footprint and serve as a national model for green campus efforts. The institution has designed a phased series of projects to build a district geo-exchange system with shared well fields, central pumping station and distribution piping to provide the geo-exchange water to campus buildings as their internal building HVAC systems are changed to be able to use the geo-exchange water. This project addresses the US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) goal to invest in clean energy technologies that strengthen the economy, protect the environment, and reduce dependence on foreign oil. In addition, this project advances EERE's efforts to establish geothermal energy as an economically competitive contributor to the US energy supply.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Green Ocean Amazon 2014/15 High-Volume Filter Sampling: Atmospheric Particulate Matter of an Amazon Tropical City and its Relationship to Population Health Field Campaign Report

Manaus, the capital of the Brazilian state of Amazonas, is developing very rapidly. Its pollution plume contains aerosols from fossil fuel combustion mainly due to vehicular emission, industrial activity, and a thermal power plant. Soil resuspension is probably a secondary source of atmospheric particles. The plume transports from Manaus to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility ARM site at Manacapuru urban pollutants as well as pollutants from pottery factories along the route of the plume. Considering the effects of particulate matter on health, atmospheric particulate matter was evaluated at this site as part of the ARM Facility’s Green Ocean Amazon 2014/15 (GoAmazon 2014/15) field campaign. Aerosol or particulate matter (PM) is typically defined by size, with the smaller particles having more health impact. Total suspended particulate (TSP) are particles smaller than 100 μm; particles smaller than 2.5 μm are called PM2.5. In this work, the PM2.5 levels were obtained from March to December of 2015, totaling 34 samples and TSP levels from October to December of 2015, totaling 17 samples. Sampling was conducted with PM2.5 and TSP high-volume samplers using quartz filters (Figure 1). Filters were stored during 24 hours in a room with temperature (21,1ºC) and humidity (44,3 %) control, in order to do gravimetric analyses by weighing before and after sampling. This procedure followed the recommendations of the Brazilian Association for Technical Standards local norm (NBR 9547:1997). Mass concentrations of particulate matter were obtained from the ratio between the weighted sample and the volume of air collected. Defining a relationship between particulate matter (PM2.5 and TSP) and respiratory diseases of the local population is an important goal of this project, since no information exists on that topic.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Developing high-resolution spatial data of migration corridors for avian species of concern in regions of high potential wind development

The future of the US economy, our national security, and our environmental quality all depend on decreasing our reliance on foreign oil and on fossil fuels. An essential component of decreasing this reliance is the development of alternative energy sources. Wind power is among the most important alternative energy sources currently available, and the mid-Atlantic region is a primary focus for wind power development. In addition to being important to the development of wind power, the mid-Atlantic region holds a special responsibility for the conservation of the eastern North America's golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos). This small population breeds in northeastern Canada, winters in the southern Appalachians, and nearly all of these birds pass through the mid-Atlantic region twice each year. Movement of these birds is not random and, particularly during spring and autumn, migrating golden eagles concentrate in a narrow 30-50 mile wide corridor in central Pennsylvania. Thus, because the fate of these rare birds may depend on responsible management of the habitat they use it is critical to use research to identify ways to mitigate prospective impacts on this and similar raptor species. The goal of this project was to develop high-resolution spatial risk maps showing migration corridors of and habitat use by eastern golden eagles in regions of high potential for wind development. To accomplish this, we first expanded existing models of raptor migration for the eastern USA to identify broad-scale migration patterns. We then used data from novel high-resolution tracking devices to discover routes of passage and detailed flight behavior of individual golden eagles throughout the eastern USA. Finally, we integrated these data and models to predict population-level migration patterns and individual eagle flight behavior on migration. We then used this information to build spatially explicit, probabilistic maps showing relative risk to birds from wind development. This project has numerous benefits to people and to wildlife, primarily because it will provide a framework for safer and less controversial development of wind power. Because golden eagles are an important "umbrella" for other raptors, this project benefits a suite of species that may be impacted by wind turbines. Finally this work is a recognized priority for central Appalachian states and it is explicitly called for in, and meets the goals of, numerous state wildlife conservation plans. The final product we created, a region-wide map of relative risk to eagles of development of wind power, has allowed us to make specific recommendations regarding siting and operation of and mitigation at wind facilities. This approach also serves as a model for other projects to protect eagles in other places and to conserve suites of species beyond raptors.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

High Energy Yield Distributed Architecture for Large Commercial and Utility-Scale PV Systems

Photovoltaic energy has come a long way from its early days when small cells were fabricated in the labs in the early 50s. While it took a long time for PV modules to mature into what we now see in the market and in rooftops across the world, the power electronics has been lagging behind & was always the weakest point in the PV plant, being responsible for the majority of failures & robbing the PV plants of their full potential by losing precious Watts in the process of converting power from DC to AC. Since the early days of PV power, it has been recognized that the modules need to operate at their maximum power point in order to extract as much power as is available from the PV modules at a given time of day and year. Numerous maximum power point devices were developed to do just this. While effective at extracting as much power as they can, soon after there was a realization that in a PV installation where a central inverter is used, many losses occur, hence energy yield losses. This has led to thinking about alternative architectures where the maximum power point tracking (MPPT) is performed much closer to the modules rather than at a central inverter. Several architectures were proposed ranging from a microinverter, microconverter, string inverter, string optimizer, and to a multi-string inverter or optimizer. While these architectures promise to increase the energy yield by 5% to 25% (depending where MPPT is located), & recovering losses due to shading, soiling, mismatch … there were no real studies and implementations in the field to corroborate these numbers. The program that GE Global Research proposed & received funding for is aimed at a type of distributed architectures, namely the dc architectures where only the MPPT function is distributed across the PV plant. Further, the project is concerned with choosing the right architecture for large scale commercial & utility scale plants but not residential installations. Findings from Task 1- Define Requirements & Develop Architecture- showed that for large scale commercial & utility PV plants, locating the MPPT at the string level with a string size of >3kW is the most cost effective solution & that the increase in energy yield of 6% to 8% is more than enough to make up for the increased cost due to additional power electronics. Our study also shows that in addition to an increase in energy yield, having a dc/dc converter at the string level brings additional benefits such as increased array visibility, allowing for increased monitoring and diagnostics; high and constant dc bus voltage which allows for reducing losses further and optimizing the inverter; and ability to detect ground and arc faults. Task 2 focused on designing a suitable dc/dc converter that meets the requirements defined in Task 1: Efficiency, Cost, & Reliability. For this task, we surveyed and simulated all candidate topologies known by the practitioners in the field. We also generated a novel topology, simulated it, & compared it to existing topologies. Our novel topology being a partial power processing converter came out on top due to its simplicity (fewer parts), it high efficiency, its reliability, and its lower cost. In the remaining tasks of the project, we built the hardware, tested it first in the lab, then in the field and once we worked out all the bugs and issues and were confident our system was robust, we installed it on the rooftop and started collecting the data by mid-Q3 2012. We shared our work with the scientific community in the form of conference & Journal papers, hence contributing to the general understanding of this technology area. The methods, techniques, and hardware developed under this project have all been tested in the field over long periods of time, and under many conditions and have been shown to be robust and reliable. The converters built and developed under this program have been in operation in the field since mid-June 2012, and no hardware failures have been recorded. While some software issues have been seen, none have been showstoppers. The cost analysis of the hardware showed that it meets the cost target set in the requirement document developed in the trade-off study. Improving the performance of solar installations for commercial and utility scale plants contributes to reducing their cost of ownership, hence spreading them to a larger section of the society and making them affordable. Our project contributed to the understanding of the distributed architectures, showed that PV plants’ cost of electricity can be reduced through additional power electronics which allows for harvesting more energy from the plant. When the project started in 2009, the cost of PV energy was still high, hence there was a real need to increase the energy yield, hence reduce the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). While costs have come down significantly, the need for increasing the energy yield is still relevant, hence the project results, hardware, and techniques developed are still pertinent today. By taking this project from concept to rooftop demonstration, we showed that the technology is mature enough, robust enough, and has the potential to be used by many more customers, hence benefiting the public in general through the spread of PV energy, which ultimately contributes to reducing our dependency on fossil fuel, improving the environment, and creating more jobs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Future of Air Conditioning for Buildings - Executive Summary

The Building Technologies Office (BTO), within the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, works with researchers and industry to develop and deploy technologies that can substantially reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in residential and commercial buildings. Air conditioning (A/C) systems in buildings contribute to GHG emissions both directly through refrigerant emissions, as well as indirectly through fossil fuel combustion for power generation. BTO promotes pre-competitive research and development (R&D) on next-generation HVAC technologies that support the phase down of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) production and consumption, as well as cost-effective energy efficiency improvements. Over the past several decades, product costs and lifecycle cooling costs have declined substantially in many global markets due to improved, higher-volume manufacturing and higher energy efficiency driven by R&D investments and efficiency policies including minimum efficiency standards and labeling programs.1 This report characterizes the current landscape and trends in the global A/C market, including discussion of both direct and indirect climate impacts, and potential global warming impacts from growing global A/C usage. The report also documents solutions that can help achieve international goals for energy efficiency and GHG emissions reductions. The solutions include pathways related to low-global warming potential2 (GWP) refrigerants, energy efficiency innovations, long-term R&D initiatives, and regulatory actions. DOE provides, with this report, a fact-based vision for the future of A/C use around the world. DOE intends for this vision to reflect a broad and balanced aggregation of perspectives. DOE brings together this content in an effort to support dialogue within the international community and help keep key facts and objectives at the forefront among the many important discussions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

U.S. Laws and Regulations for Renewable Energy Grid Interconnections

Rapidly declining costs of wind and solar energy technologies, increasing concerns about the environmental and climate change impacts of fossil fuels, and sustained investment in renewable energy projects all point to a not-so-distant future in which renewable energy plays a pivotal role in the electric power system of the 21st century. In light of public pressures and market factors that hasten the transition towards a low-carbon system, power system planners and regulators are preparing to integrate higher levels of variable renewable generation into the grid. Updating the regulations that govern generator interconnections and operations is crucial to ensure system reliability while creating an enabling environment for renewable energy development. This report presents a chronological review of energy laws and regulations concerning grid interconnection procedures in the United States, highlighting the consequences of policies for renewable energy interconnections. Where appropriate, this report places interconnection policies and their impacts on renewable energy within the broader context of power market reform.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Flambeau River Biofuels Demonstration Plant

Flambeau River BioFuels, Inc. (FRB) proposed to construct a demonstration biomass-to-liquids (BTL) biorefinery in Park Falls, Wisconsin. The biorefinery was to be co-located at the existing pulp and paper mill, Flambeau River Papers, and when in full operation would both generate renewable energy – making Flambeau River Papers the first pulp and paper mill in North America to be nearly fossil fuel free – and produce liquid fuels from abundant and renewable lignocellulosic biomass. The biorefinery would serve to validate the thermochemical pathway and economic models for BTL production using forest residuals and wood waste, providing a basis for proliferating BTL conversion technologies throughout the United States. It was a project goal to create a compelling new business model for the pulp and paper industry, and support the nation’s goal for increasing renewable fuels production and reducing its dependence on foreign oil. FRB planned to replicate this facility at other paper mills after this first demonstration scale plant was operational and had proven technical and economic feasibility.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Driftless Area Initiative Biomass Energy Project

The Driftless Area Initiative Biomass Energy Project evaluated the potential for biomass energy production and utilization throughout the Driftless Region of Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. The research and demonstration aspect of the project specifically focused on biomass energy feedstock availability and production potential in the region, as well as utilization potential of biomass feedstocks for heat, electrical energy production, or combined heat and power operations. The Driftless Region was evaluated because the topography of the area offers more acres of marginal soils on steep slopes, wooded areas, and riparian corridors than the surrounding “Corn Belt”. These regional land characteristics were identified as potentially providing opportunity for biomass feedstock production that could compete with traditional agriculture commodity crops economically. The project researched establishment methods and costs for growing switchgrass on marginal agricultural lands to determine the economic and quantitative feasibility of switchgrass production for biomass energy purposes. The project was successful in identifying the best management and establishment practices for switchgrass in the Driftless Area, but also demonstrated that simple economic payback versus commodity crops could not be achieved at the time of the research. The project also analyzed the availability of woody biomass and production potential for growing woody biomass for large scale biomass energy production in the Driftless Area. Analysis determined that significant resources exist, but costs to harvest and deliver to the site were roughly 60% greater than that of natural gas at the time of the study. The project contributed significantly to identifying both production potential of biomass energy crops and existing feedstock availability in the Driftless Area. The project also analyzed the economic feasibility of dedicated energy crops in the Driftless Area. High commodity crop prices and land values coupled with low fossil fuel prices, particularly natural gas, hampered the likelihood of widespread production and/or utilization of for large scale heating or electrical generation at the time of the study.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Design and Implementation of Geothermal Energy Systems at West Chester University

West Chester University has launched a comprehensive transformation of its campus heating and cooling systems from traditional fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) to geothermal. This change will significantly decrease the institution’s carbon footprint and serve as a national model for green campus efforts. The institution has designed a phased series of projects to build a district geo-exchange system with shared well fields, central pumping station and distribution piping to provide the geo-exchange water to campus buildings as their internal building HVAC systems is changed to be able to use the geo-exchange water. This project addresses the US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) goal to invest in clean energy technologies that strengthen the economy, protect the environment, and reduce dependence on foreign oil. In addition, this project advances EERE’s efforts to establish geothermal energy as an economically competitive contributor to the US energy supply.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Quality Assurance Framework for Mini-Grids

Providing clean and affordable energy services to the more than 1 billion people globally who lack access to electricity is a critical driver for poverty reduction, economic development, improved health, and social outcomes. More than 84% of populations without electricity are located in rural areas where traditional grid extension may not be cost-effective; therefore, distributed energy solutions such as mini-grids are critical. To address some of the root challenges of providing safe, quality, and financially viable mini-grid power systems to remote customers, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) teamed with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to develop a Quality Assurance Framework (QAF) for isolated mini-grids. The QAF for mini-grids aims to address some root challenges of providing safe, quality, and affordable power to remote customers via financially viable mini-grids through two key components: (1) Levels of service: Defines a standard set of tiers of end-user service and links them to technical parameters of power quality, power availability, and power reliability. These levels of service span the entire energy ladder, from basic energy service to high-quality, high-reliability, and high-availability service (often considered 'grid parity'); (2) Accountability and performance reporting framework: Provides a clear process of validating power delivery by providing trusted information to customers, funders, and/or regulators. The performance reporting protocol can also serve as a robust monitoring and evaluation tool for mini-grid operators and funding organizations. The QAF will provide a flexible alternative to rigid top-down standards for mini-grids in energy access contexts, outlining tiers of end-user service and linking them to relevant technical parameters. In addition, data generated through implementation of the QAF will provide the foundation for comparisons across projects, assessment of impacts, and greater confidence that will drive investment and scale-up in this sector. The QAF implementation process also defines a set of implementation guidelines that help the deployment of mini-grids on a regional or national scale, helping to insure successful rapid deployment of these relatively new remote energy options. Note that the QAF is technology agnostic, addressing both alternating current (AC) and direct current (DC) mini-grids, and is also applicable to renewable, fossil-fuel, and hybrid systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Nuclear-Renewable Hybrid Energy Systems: 2016 Technology Development Program Plan

The United States is in the midst of an energy revolution, spurred by advancement of technology to produce unprecedented supplies of oil and natural gas. Simultaneously, there is an increasing concern for climate change attributed to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that, in large part, result from burning fossil fuels. An international consensus has concluded that the U.S. and other developed nations have an imperative to reduce GHG emissions to address these climate change concerns. The global desire to reduce GHG emissions has led to the development and deployment of clean energy resources and technologies, particularly renewable energy technologies, at a rapid rate. At the same time, each of the major energy sectors—the electric grid, industrial manufacturing, transportation, and the residential/commercial consumers— is increasingly becoming linked through information and communications technologies, advanced modeling and simulation, and controls. Coordination of clean energy generation technologies through integrated hybrid energy systems, as defined below, has the potential to further revolutionize energy services at the system level by coordinating the exchange of energy currency among the energy sectors in a manner that optimizes financial efficiency (including capital investments), maximizes thermodynamic efficiency (through best use of exergy, which is the potential to use the available energy in producing energy services), reduces environmental impacts when clean energy inputs are maximized, and provides resources for grid management. Rapid buildout of renewable technologies has been largely driven by local, state, and federal policies, such as renewable portfolio standards and production tax credits that incentivize investment in these generation sources. A foundational assumption within this program plan is that renewable technologies will continue to be major contributors to the future U.S. energy infrastructure. While increased use of clean renewable technologies will aid in achieving reduced GHG emissions, it also presents new challenges to grid management that must be addressed. These challenges primarily derive from the fundamental characteristics of variable renewable generators, such as wind and solar: non-dispatchability, variable production, and reduced electromechanical inertia. This document presents a preliminary research and development (R&D) plan for detailed dynamic simulation and analysis of nuclear-renewable hybrid energy systems (N-R HES), coupled with integrated energy system design, component development, and integrated systems testing. N-R HES are cooperatively-controlled systems that dynamically apportion thermal and/or electrical energy to provide responsive generation to the power grid.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Thermodynamic Properties of Aqueous Carbonate Species and Solid Carbonate Phases of Selected Trace Elements pertinent to Drinking Water Standards of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

This report contains a series of tables summarizing the thermodynamic properties of aqueous carbonate complexes and solid carbonate phases of the following elements: arsenic (As), barium (Ba), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), cobalt (Co), copper (Cu), iron (Fe), lead (Pb), manganese (Mn), mercury (Hg), nickel (Ni) thallium (Tl), uranium (U) and zinc (Zn). Most of these elements are potentially hazardous as defined by extant primary drinking water standards of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The remainder are not considered hazardous, but are either listed by EPA under secondary standards, or because they can adversely affect drinking water quality. Additional tables are included giving the thermodynamic properties for carbonates of the alkali metal and alkali earth elements, sodium (Na), potassium (K), magnesium (Mg), calcium (Ca), and strontium (Sr), because of their value in developing correlative models to estimate the thermodynamic properties of carbonate minerals for which no such data currently exist. The purpose in creating the tables in this report is to provide future investigators with a convenient source for selecting and tracing the sources of thermodynamic data of the above listed elements for use in modeling their geochemical behavior in “underground sources of drinking water” (USDW). The incentive for doing so lies with a heightened concern over the potential consequences of the proposed capture and storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) generated by fossil fuel fired power plants in deep subsurface reservoirs. If CO2 were to leak from such reservoirs, it could migrate upward and contaminate USDWs with undesirable, but undetermined, consequences to water quality. The EPA, Office of Research and Development, through an Interagency Agreement with the U.S. Department of Energy at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, funded the preparation of this report.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Structure Biology of Membrane Bound Enzymes

The overall goal of the proposed research is to understand the membrane-associated active processes catalyzed by an alkane $\square$-hydroxylase (AlkB) from eubacterium Pseudomonase oleovorans. AlkB performs oxygenation of unactivated hydrocarbons found in crude oils. The enzymatic reaction involves energy-demanding steps in the membrane with the uses of structurally unknown metal active sites featuring a diiron [FeFe] center. At present, a critical barrier to understanding the membrane-associated reaction mechanism is the lack of structural information. The structural biology efforts have been challenged by technical difficulties commonly encountered in crystallization and structural determination of membrane proteins. The specific aims of the current budget cycle are to crystalize AlkB and initiate X-ray analysis to set the stage for structural determination. The long-term goals of our structural biology efforts are to provide an atomic description of AlkB structure, and to uncover the mechanisms of selective modification of hydrocarbons. The structural information will help elucidating how the unactivated C-H bonds of saturated hydrocarbons are oxidized to initiate biodegradation and biotransformation processes. The knowledge gained will be fundamental to biotechnological applications to biofuel transformation of non-edible oil feedstock. Renewable biodiesel is a promising energy carry that can be used to reduce fossil fuel dependency. The proposed research capitalizes on prior BES-supported efforts on over-expression and purification of AlkB to explore the inner workings of a bioenergy-relevant membrane-bound enzyme.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Outlooks for Wind Power in the United States: Drivers and Trends under a 2016 Policy Environment

Over the past decade, wind power has become one of the fastest growing electricity generation sources in the United States. Despite this growth, the U.S. wind industry continues to experience year-to-year fluctuations across the manufacturing and supply chain as a result of dynamic market conditions and changing policy landscapes. Moreover, with advancing wind technologies, ever-changing fossil fuel prices, and evolving energy policies, the long-term future for wind power is highly uncertain. In this report, we present multiple outlooks for wind power in the United States, to explore the possibilities of future wind deployment. The future wind power outlooks presented rely on high-resolution wind resource data and advanced electric sector modeling capabilities to evaluate an array of potential scenarios of the U.S. electricity system. Scenario analysis is used to explore drivers, trends, and implications for wind power deployment over multiple periods through 2050. Specifically, we model 16 scenarios of wind deployment in the contiguous United States. These scenarios span a wide range of wind technology costs, natural gas prices, and future transmission expansion. We identify conditions with more consistent wind deployment after the production tax credit expires as well as drivers for more robust wind growth in the long run. Conversely, we highlight challenges to future wind deployment. We find that the degree to which wind technology costs decline can play an important role in future wind deployment, electric sector CO 2 emissions, and lowering allowance prices for the Clean Power Plan.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Prospective Analysis of the Costs, Benefits, and Impacts of U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards

This report evaluates the future costs, benefits, and other impacts of renewable energy used to meet current state renewable portfolio standards (RPSs). It also examines a future scenario where RPSs are expanded. The analysis examines changes in electric system costs and retail electricity prices, which include all fixed and operating costs, including capital costs for all renewable, non-renewable, and supporting (e.g., transmission and storage) electric sector infrastructure; fossil fuel, uranium, and biomass fuel costs; and plant operations and maintenance expenditures. The analysis evaluates three specific benefits: air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and water use. It also analyzes two other impacts, renewable energy workforce and economic development, and natural gas price suppression. This analysis finds that the benefits or renewable energy used to meet RPS polices exceed the costs, even when considering the highest cost and lowest benefit outcomes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Assessment of potential greenhouse gas mitigation from changes to crop root mass and architecture

Reducing (and eventually reversing) the increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere due to human activities, and thus reducing the extent and severity of anthropogenic climate change, is one of the great challenges facing humanity. While most of the man-caused increase in GHGs has been due to fossil fuel use, land use (including agriculture) currently accounts for about 25% of total GHG emissions and thus there is a need to include emission reductions from the land use sector as part of an effective climate change mitigation strategy. In addition, analyses included in the recent IPCC 5th Climate Change Assessment report suggests that it may not be possible to achieve large enough emissions reductions in the energy, transport and industrial sectors alone to stabilize GHG concentrations at a level commensurate with a less than 2°C global average temperature increase, without the help of a substantial CO 2 sink (i.e., atmospheric CO 2 removal) from the land use sector. One of the potential carbon sinks that could contribute to this goal is increasing C storage in soil organic matter on managed lands. This report details a preliminary scoping analysis, to assess the potential agricultural area in the US – where appropriate soil, climate and land use conditions exist – to determine the land area on which ‘improved root phenotype’ crops could be deployed and to evaluate the potential long-term soil C storage, given a set of ‘bounding scenarios’ of increased crop root input and/or rooting depth for major crop species (e.g., row crops (corn, sorghum, soybeans), small grains (wheat, barley, oats), and hay and pasture perennial forages). The enhanced root phenotype scenarios assumed 25, 50 and 100% increase in total root C inputs, in combination with five levels of modifying crop root distributions (i.e., no change and four scenarios with increasing downward shift in root distributions). We also analyzed impacts of greater root production on the soil-crop nitrogen balance, from the standpoint of increased need for additional N inputs and consequences for increased N 2 O flux, as well as potential impacts if more and deeper roots contributed to reduced N leaching. In the enhanced root phenotype scenarios, the implicit assumption was that increases in overall plant production could be achieved (e.g., through increased CO 2 assimilation, greater growth efficiency) without reducing the harvested yield – that is, we did not include potential leakage and land substitution effects from potential decreased crop yield in the analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗