Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “FIT”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,459 records · Page 81

REVISING THE HALOFIT MODEL FOR THE NONLINEAR MATTER POWER SPECTRUM

Based on a suite of state-of-the-art high-resolution N-body simulations, we revisit the so-called halofit model as an accurate fitting formula for the nonlinear matter power spectrum. While the halofit model has frequently been used as a standard cosmological tool to predict the nonlinear matter power spectrum in a universe dominated by cold dark matter, its precision has been limited by the low resolution of N-body simulations used to determine the fitting parameters, suggesting the necessity of an improved fitting formula at small scales for future cosmological studies. We run high-resolution N-body simulations for 16 cosmological models around the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe best-fit cosmological parameters (one-, three-, five-, and seven-year results), including dark energy models with a constant equation of state. The simulation results are used to re-calibrate the fitting parameters of the halofit model so as to reproduce small-scale power spectra of the N-body simulations, while keeping the precision at large scales. The revised fitting formula provides an accurate prediction of the nonlinear matter power spectrum in a wide range of wavenumbers (k {<=} 30 h Mpc{sup -1}) at redshifts 0 {<=} z {<=} 10, with 5% precision for k {<=} 1 h Mpc{sup -1} at 0 {<=} z {<=} 10 and 10% for 1 {<=} k {<=} 10 h Mpc{sup -1} at 0 {<=} z {<=} 3. We discuss the impact of the improved halofit model on weak-lensing power spectra and correlation functions, and show that the improved model better reproduces ray-tracing simulation results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Quantifying mass segregation and new core radii for 54 Milky Way globular clusters

We present core radii for 54 Milky Way globular clusters determined by fitting King-Michie models to cumulative projected star count distributions. We find that fitting star counts rather than surface brightness profiles produces results that differ significantly due to the presence of mass segregation. The sample in each cluster is further broken down into various mass groups, each of which is fit independently, allowing us to determine how the concentration of each cluster varies with mass. The majority of the clusters in our sample show general agreement with the standard picture that more massive stars will be more centrally concentrated. We find that core radius versus stellar mass can be fit with a two-parameter power law. The slope of this power law is a value that describes the amount of mass segregation present in the cluster, and is measured independently of our distance from the cluster. This value correlates strongly with the core relaxation time and physical size of each cluster. Supplementary figures are also included showing the best fits and likelihood contours of fit parameters for all 54 clusters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Time-resolved analysis of Fermi gamma-ray bursts with fast- and slow-cooled synchrotron photon models

Time-resolved spectroscopy is performed on eight bright, long gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) dominated by single emission pulses that were observed with the Fermi Gamma-Ray Space Telescope. Fitting the prompt radiation of GRBs by empirical spectral forms such as the Band function leads to ambiguous conclusions about the physical model for the prompt radiation. Moreover, the Band function is often inadequate to fit the data. The GRB spectrum is therefore modeled with two emission components consisting of optically thin non-thermal synchrotron radiation from relativistic electrons and, when significant, thermal emission from a jet photosphere, which is represented by a blackbody spectrum. To produce an acceptable fit, the addition of a blackbody component is required in five out of the eight cases. We also find that the low-energy spectral index α is consistent with a synchrotron component with α = –0.81 ± 0.1. This value lies between the limiting values of α = –2/3 and α = –3/2 for electrons in the slow- and fast-cooling regimes, respectively, suggesting ongoing acceleration at the emission site. The blackbody component can be more significant when using a physical synchrotron model instead of the Band function, illustrating that the Band function does not serve as a good proxy for a non-thermal synchrotron emission component. The temperature and characteristic emission-region size of the blackbody component are found to, respectively, decrease and increase as power laws with time during the prompt phase. In addition, we find that the blackbody and non-thermal components have separate temporal behaviors as far as their respective flux and spectral evolutions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Color-magnitude distribution of face-on nearby galaxies in Sloan digital sky survey DR7

We have analyzed the distributions in the color-magnitude diagram (CMD) of a large sample of face-on galaxies to minimize the effect of dust extinctions on galaxy color. About 300,000 galaxies with log (a/b) < 0.2 and redshift z < 0.2 are selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey DR7 catalog. Two methods are employed to investigate the distributions of galaxies in the CMD, including one-dimensional (1D) Gaussian fitting to the distributions in individual magnitude bins and two-dimensional (2D) Gaussian mixture model (GMM) fitting to galaxies as a whole. We find that in the 1D fitting, two Gaussians are not enough to fit galaxies with the excess present between the blue cloud and the red sequence. The fitting to this excess defines the center of the green valley in the local universe to be (u – r){sub 0.1} = –0.121M {sub r,} 0{sub .1} – 0.061. The fraction of blue cloud and red sequence galaxies turns over around M {sub r,} {sub 0.1} ∼ –20.1 mag, corresponding to stellar mass of 3 × 10{sup 10} M {sub ☉}. For the 2D GMM fitting, a total of four Gaussians are required, one for the blue cloud, one for the red sequence, and the additional two for the green valley. The fact that two Gaussians are needed to describe the distributions of galaxies in the green valley is consistent with some models that argue for two different evolutionary paths from the blue cloud to the red sequence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Investigating the differential emission measure and energetics of microflares with combined SDO/AIA and RHESSI observations

An important question in solar physics is whether solar microflares, the smallest currently observable flare events in X-rays, possess the same energetic properties as large flares. Recent surveys have suggested that microflares may be less efficient particle accelerators than large flares, and hence contribute less non-thermal energy, which may have implications for coronal heating mechanisms. We therefore explore the energetic properties of microflares by combining EUV and X-ray measurements. We present forward-fitting differential emission measure (DEM) analysis of 10 microflares. The fitting is constrained by combining, for the first time, high-temperature Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) observations and flux data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA). Two fitting models are tested for the DEM; a Gaussian distribution and a uniform DEM profile. A Gaussian fit proved unable to explain the observations for any of the studied microflares. However, 8 of 10 events studied were reasonably fit by a uniform DEM profile. Hence microflare plasma can be considered to be significantly multi-thermal, and may not be significantly peaked or contain resolvable fine structure, within the uncertainties of the observational instruments. The thermal and non-thermal energy is estimated for each microflare, comparing the energy budget with an isothermal plasma assumption. From the multi-thermal fits the minimum non-thermal energy content was found to average approximately 30% of the estimated thermal energy. By comparison, under an isothermal model the non-thermal and thermal energy estimates were generally comparable. Hence, multi-thermal plasma is an important consideration for solar microflares that substantially alters their thermal and non-thermal energy content.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DUST AND GAS IN THE MAGELLANIC CLOUDS FROM THE HERITAGE HERSCHEL KEY PROJECT. I. DUST PROPERTIES AND INSIGHTS INTO THE ORIGIN OF THE SUBMILLIMETER EXCESS EMISSION

The dust properties in the Large and Small Magellanic clouds (LMC/SMC) are studied using the HERITAGE Herschel Key Project photometric data in five bands from 100 to 500 μm. Three simple models of dust emission were fit to the observations: a single temperature blackbody modified by a power-law emissivity (SMBB), a single temperature blackbody modified by a broken power-law emissivity (BEMBB), and two blackbodies with different temperatures, both modified by the same power-law emissivity (TTMBB). Using these models, we investigate the origin of the submillimeter excess, defined as the submillimeter emission above that expected from SMBB models fit to observations <200 μm. We find that the BEMBB model produces the lowest fit residuals with pixel-averaged 500 μm submillimeter excesses of 27% and 43% for the LMC and SMC, respectively. Adopting gas masses from previous works, the gas-to-dust ratios calculated from our fitting results show that the TTMBB fits require significantly more dust than are available even if all the metals present in the interstellar medium (ISM) were condensed into dust. This indicates that the submillimeter excess is more likely to be due to emissivity variations than a second population of colder dust. We derive integrated dust masses of (7.3 ± 1.7) × 10{sup 5} and (8.3 ± 2.1) × 10{sup 4} M {sub ☉} for the LMC and SMC, respectively. We find significant correlations between the submillimeter excess and other dust properties; further work is needed to determine the relative contributions of fitting noise and ISM physics to the correlations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Toward a better understanding of the GRB phenomenon: A new model for GRB PROMPT emission and its effects on the new L{sub i}{sup NT}– E{sub peak,i}{sup rest,NT} relation

Gamma-ray burst (GRB) prompt emission spectra in the keV–MeV energy range are usually considered to be adequately fitted with the empirical Band function. Recent observations with the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope (Fermi) revealed deviations from the Band function, sometimes in the form of an additional blackbody (BB) component, while on other occasions in the form of an additional power law (PL) component extending to high energies. In this article we investigate the possibility that the three components may be present simultaneously in the prompt emission spectra of two very bright GRBs (080916C and 090926A) observed with Fermi, and how the three components may affect the overall shape of the spectra. While the two GRBs are very different when fitted to a single Band function, they look like “twins” in the three-component scenario. Through fine-time spectroscopy down to the 100 ms timescale, we follow the evolution of the various components. We succeed in reducing the number of free parameters in the three-component model, which results in a new semi-empirical model—but with physical motivations—to be competitive with the Band function in terms of number of degrees of freedom. From this analysis using multiple components, the Band function is globally the most intense component, although the additional PL can overpower the others in sharp time structures. The Band function and the BB component are the most intense at early times and globally fade across the burst duration. The additional PL is the most intense component at late time and may be correlated with the extended high-energy emission observed thousands of seconds after the burst with Fermi/Large Area Telescope. Unexpectedly, this analysis also shows that the additional PL may be present from the very beginning of the burst, where it may even overpower the other components at low energy. We investigate the effect of the three components on the new time-resolved luminosity–hardness relation in both the observer and rest frames and show that a strong correlation exists between the flux of the non-thermal Band function and its E{sub peak} only when the three components are fitted simultaneously to the data (i.e., F{sub i}{sup NT}–E{sub peak,i}{sup NT} relation). In addition, this result points toward a universal relation between those two quantities when transposed to the central engine rest frame for all GRBs (i.e., L{sub i}{sup NT}–E{sub peak,i}{sup rest,NT} relation). We discuss a possible theoretical interpretation of the three spectral components within this new empirical model. We suggest that (i) the BB component may be interpreted as the photosphere emission of a magnetized relativistic outflow, (ii) the Band component has synchrotron radiation in an optically thin region above the photosphere, either from internal shocks or magnetic field dissipation, and (iii) the extra PL component extending to high energies likely has an inverse Compton origin of some sort, even though its extension to a much lower energy remains a mystery.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The one-loop matter bispectrum in the Effective Field Theory of Large Scale Structures

With this study, given the importance of future large scale structure surveys for delivering new cosmological information, it is crucial to reliably predict their observables. The Effective Field Theory of Large Scale Structures (EFTofLSS) provides a manifestly convergent perturbative scheme to compute the clustering of dark matter in the weakly nonlinear regime in an expansion in k/k NL , where k is the wavenumber of interest and k NL is the wavenumber associated to the nonlinear scale. It has been recently shown that the EFTofLSS matches to 1% level the dark matter power spectrum at redshift zero up to k ≃ 0.3 h Mpc –1 and k ≃ 0.6 h Mpc –1 at one and two loops respectively, using only one counterterm that is fit to data. Similar results have been obtained for the momentum power spectrum at one loop. This is a remarkable improvement with respect to former analytical techniques. Here we study the prediction for the equal-time dark matter bispectrum at one loop. We find that at this order it is sufficient to consider the same counterterm that was measured in the power spectrum. Without any remaining free parameter, and in a cosmology for which kNL is smaller than in the previously considered cases (σ 8 =0.9), we find that the prediction from the EFTofLSS agrees very well with N-body simulations up to k ≃ 0.25 h Mpc –1 , given the accuracy of the measurements, which is of order a few percent at the highest k's of interest. While the fit is very good on average up to k ≃ 0.25 h Mpc –1 , the fit performs slightly worse on equilateral configurations, in agreement with expectations that for a given maximum k, equilateral triangles are the most nonlinear.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: delensed power spectra and parameters

We present ΛCDM cosmological parameter constraints obtained from delensed microwave background power spectra. Lensing maps from a subset of DR4 data from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) are used to undo the lensing effect in ACT spectra observed at 150 and 98 GHz. At 150 GHz, we remove the lensing distortion with an effective efficiency of 30% (TT), 30% (EE), 26% (TE) and 20% (BB); this results in detections of the delensing effect at 8.7σ (TT), 5.1σ (EE), 2.6σ (TE), and 2.4σ (BB) significance. The combination of 150 and 98 GHz TT, EE, and TE delensed spectra is well fit by a standard ΛCDM model. We also measure the shift in best-fit parameters when fitting delensed versus lensed spectra; while this shift does not inform our ability to measure cosmological parameters, it does provide a three-way consistency check among the lensing inferred from the best-fit parameters, the lensing in the CMB power spectrum, and the reconstructed lensing map. This shift is predicted to be zero when fitting with the correct model since both lensed and delensed spectra originate from the same region of sky. Furthermore, fitting with a ΛCDM model and marginalizing over foregrounds, we find that the shift in cosmological parameters is consistent with zero. Our results show that gravitational lensing of the microwave background is internally consistent within the framework of the standard cosmological model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Inverse modeling of circular lattices via orbit response measurements in the presence of degeneracy

The number and location of beam position monitors (BPMs) and steerers with respect to the quadrupoles in a circular lattice can lead to degeneracy in the context of fitting linear optics and extracting lattice information from measured closed orbits. Furthermore, the measurement uncertainties due to the imperfection of BPMs and steerers can be propagated by the fitting process in ways that prohibit the successful extraction of discrepancies between lattice elements in the real machine and their description in the corresponding model. We systematically studied the influence of the placement of BPMs and steerers on the reconstruction of linear optics and corresponding lattice information. The derivative of orbit response coefficients with respect to the quadrupole strengths, the Jacobian, is derived as an analytical formula. This analytical version of the Jacobian is used to further derive the theoretical limitations of fitting linear optics from closed orbits in terms of the placement of BPMs and steerers. It is further demonstrated that when evaluating the Jacobian during the fitting procedure, the analytical version can be used in place of the conventional finite-difference computation. This allows for greatly improved efficiency when computing the Jacobian during each iteration of the fitting procedure. The approach is tested with large-scale simulations and the findings are verified by measurement data taken on SIS18 synchrotron at GSI Helmholtz Centre for Heavy Ion Research. The presented methods are of general nature and can be applied to other accelerator lattices as well. The fitting procedure by using the analytical Jacobian is tested in conjunction with various methods for mitigating quasidegeneracy and the results agree with those obtained by using the conventional Jacobian via finite-difference approximation.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

$N$=5, 6, 7, 8: Nested hypothesis tests and truncation dependence of $|V_{cb}|$ |Vcb|

The determination of | V c b | from exclusive semileptonic B → D * ℓ ν decays is sensitive to the choice of form factor parametrization. Larger | V c b | values are obtained by fitting the Boyd-Grinstein-Lebed (BGL) versus the Caprini-Lellouch-Neubert (CLN) parametrization to recent Belle measurements. For the BGL parametrization, published fits use different numbers of parameters. We propose a method based on nested hypothesis tests to determine the optimal number of BGL parameters to fit the data, and find that six parameters are optimal to fit the Belle tagged and unfolded measurement. We further explore the differences between fits that use different numbers of parameters. The fits which yield | V c b | values in better agreement with determinations from inclusive semileptonic decays tend to exhibit tensions with heavy quark symmetry expectations. These have to be resolved before the determinations of | V c b | from exclusive and inclusive decays can be considered understood.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Hidden conformal symmetry from the lattice

We analyze newly expanded and refined data from lattice studies of an SU(3) gauge theory with eight Dirac fermions in the fundamental representation. We focus on the light composite states emerging from these studies, consisting of a set of pseudoscalars and a single light scalar. We first consider the view that this theory is just outside the conformal window. In this case, the pseudoscalars arise from spontaneous breaking of chiral symmetry. Identifying the scalar in this case as an approximate dilaton, we fit the lattice data to a dilaton effective field theory, finding that it yields a good fit even at lowest order. For comparison, we then consider the possibility that the theory is inside the conformal window. The fermion mass provides a deformation, triggering confinement. We employ simple scaling laws to fit the lattice data, and find that it is of lesser quality.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Symmetry-mode analysis for local structure investigations using pair distribution function data

Symmetry-adapted distortion modes provide a natural way of describing distorted structures derived from higher-symmetry parent phases. Structural refinements using symmetry-mode amplitudes as fit variables have been used for at least ten years in Rietveld refinements of the average crystal structure from diffraction data; more recently, this approach has also been used for investigations of the local structure using real-space pair distribution function (PDF) data. Here, the value of performing symmetry-mode fits to PDF data is further demonstrated through the successful application of this method to two topical materials: TiSe2, where a subtle but long-range structural distortion driven by the formation of a charge-density wave is detected, and MnTe, where a large but highly localized structural distortion is characterized in terms of symmetry-lowering displacements of the Te atoms. Here, the analysis is performed using fully open-source code within the DiffPy framework via two packages developed for this work: isopydistort, which provides a scriptable interface to the ISODISTORT web application for group theoretical calculations, and isopytools, which converts the ISODISTORT output into a DiffPy-compatible format for subsequent fitting and analysis. These developments expand the potential impact of symmetry-adapted PDF analysis by enabling high-throughput analysis and removing the need for any commercial software.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Advanced EXAFS analysis techniques applied to the L -edges of the lanthanide oxides

The unique properties of the lanthanide (Ln) elements make them critical components of modern technologies, such as lasers, anti-corrosive films and catalysts. Thus, there is significant interest in establishing structure–property relationships for Ln-containing materials to advance these technologies. Extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) is an excellent technique for this task considering its ability to determine the average local structure around the Ln atoms for both crystalline and amorphous materials. However, the limited availability of EXAFS reference spectra of the Ln oxides and challenges in the EXAFS analysis have hindered the application of this technique to these elements. The challenges include the limited k-range available for the analysis due to the superposition of L-edges on the EXAFS, multielectron excitations (MEEs) creating erroneous peaks in the EXAFS and the presence of inequivalent absorption sites. Herein, we removed MEEs to model the local atomic environment more accurately for light Ln oxides. Further, we investigated the use of cubic and non-cubic lattice expansion to minimize the fitting parameters needed and connect the fitting parameters to physically meaningful crystal parameters. The cubic expansion reduced the number of fitting parameters but resulted in a statistically worse fit. The non-cubic expansion resulted in a similar quality fit and showed non-isotropic expansion in the crystal lattice of Nd 2 O 3 . In total, the EXAFS spectra and the fits for the entire set of Ln oxides (excluding promethium) are included. The knowledge developed here can assist in the structural determination of a wide variety of Ln compounds and can further studies on their structure–property relationships.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Estimating uncertainty: A Bayesian approach to modelling photosynthesis in C3 leaves

The Farquhar-von Caemmerer-Berry (FvCB) model is extensively used to model pho-tosynthesis from gas exchange measurements. Since its publication, many methods have been developed to measure, or more accurately estimate, parameters of this model. Here, we have created a tool that uses Bayesian statistics to fit photosyn-thetic parameters using concurrent gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence mea-surements whilst evaluating the reliability of the parameter estimation. We have tested this tool on synthetic data and experimental data from rice leaves. Our results indicate that reliable parameter estimation can be achieved whilst only keeping one parameter, Km, that is, Michaelis constant for CO2 by Rubisco, prefixed. Additionally, we show that including detailed low CO2 measurements at low light levels increases reliability and suggests this as a new standard measurement protocol. By providing an estimated distribution of parameter values, the tool can be used to evaluate the quality of data from gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence measurement proto-cols. Compared to earlier model fitting methods, the use of a Bayesian statistics-based tool minimizes human interaction during fitting, reducing the subjectivity which is essential to most existing tools. A user friendly, interactive Bayesian tool script is provided.

Bayesian statistics, leaf photosynthesis, mesophyl↗

TRIZ-Based Design Improvement for Facilitating Transmission Control Unit Remanufacturing

Design for Remanufacturing (DfRem) centers on enhancing product design and operations to facilitate remanufacturing while increasing both economic and environmental sustainability. DfRem requires a comprehensive understanding of product characteristics, production conditions, and operational constraints. Thus, DfRem requires a systematic methodology to identify and implement alternative designs. Among many critical steps in remanufacturing, disassembly is essential because it directly supports remanufacturing by separation of product components for cleaning, inspection, and other subsequent process steps. This study proposes a TRIZ-based framework to improve product design for disassembly in support of remanufacturing. The framework is applied to a transmission control unit (TCU) case study. The current TCU design prevents remanufacturing due to the sealant-based component joinery, which complicates disassembly and risks damaging the printed circuit board (PCB). After defining technical contradictions for the TCU product design and reviewing the suggested TRIZ principles to solve the conflicts, a cantilever snap-fit design alternative is developed. The economic feasibility of the snap-fit design is assessed by comparing the current and snap-fit design costs for three life cycles. The cost analysis demonstrates that the cost of the snap-fit design remains the same as the current design. Additionally, the snap-fit design offers substantial cost savings for three life cycles compared to the current design. We demonstrate how snap-fit design supports both environmental and economic sustainability.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Monte Carlo calculations for reference dosimetry of electron beams with the PTW Roos and NE2571 ion chambers

Purpose: To investigate recommendations for reference dosimetry of electron beams and gradient effects for the NE2571 chamber and to provide beam quality conversion factors using Monte Carlo simulations of the PTW Roos and NE2571 ion chambers. Methods: The EGSnrc code system is used to calculate the absorbed dose-to-water and the dose to the gas in fully modeled ion chambers as a function of depth in water. Electron beams are modeled using realistic accelerator simulations as well as beams modeled as collimated point sources from realistic electron beam spectra or monoenergetic electrons. Beam quality conversion factors are calculated with ratios of the doses to water and to the air in the ion chamber in electron beams and a cobalt-60 reference field. The overall ion chamber correction factor is studied using calculations of water-to-air stopping power ratios. Results: The use of an effective point of measurement shift of 1.55 mm from the front face of the PTW Roos chamber, which places the point of measurement inside the chamber cavity, minimizes the difference betweenR{sub 50}, the beam quality specifier, calculated from chamber simulations compared to that obtained using depth-dose calculations in water. A similar shift minimizes the variation of the overall ion chamber correction factor with depth to the practical range and reduces the root-mean-square deviation of a fit to calculated beam quality conversion factors at the reference depth as a function of R{sub 50}. Similarly, an upstream shift of 0.34 r{sub cav} allows a more accurate determination of R{sub 50} from NE2571 chamber calculations and reduces the variation of the overall ion chamber correction factor with depth. The determination of the gradient correction using a shift of 0.22 r{sub cav} optimizes the root-mean-square deviation of a fit to calculated beam quality conversion factors if all beams investigated are considered. However, if only clinical beams are considered, a good fit to results for beam quality conversion factors is obtained without explicitly correcting for gradient effects. The inadequacy of R{sub 50} to uniquely specify beam quality for the accurate selection of k{sub Q} factors is discussed. Systematic uncertainties in beam quality conversion factors are analyzed for the NE2571 chamber and amount to between 0.4% and 1.2% depending on assumptions used. Conclusions: The calculated beam quality conversion factors for the PTW Roos chamber obtained here are in good agreement with literature data. These results characterize the use of an NE2571 ion chamber for reference dosimetry of electron beams even in low-energy beams.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

A validated tumor control probability model based on a meta-analysis of low, intermediate, and high-risk prostate cancer patients treated by photon, proton, or carbon-ion radiotherapy

Purpose: A fully heterogeneous population averaged mechanistic tumor control probability (TCP) model is appropriate for the analysis of external beam radiotherapy (EBRT). This has been accomplished for EBRT photon treatment of intermediate-risk prostate cancer. Extending the TCP model for low and high-risk patients would be beneficial in terms of overall decision making. Furthermore, different radiation treatment modalities such as protons and carbon-ions are becoming increasingly available. Consequently, there is a need for a complete TCP model. Methods: A TCP model was fitted and validated to a primary endpoint of 5-year biological no evidence of disease clinical outcome data obtained from a review of the literature for low, intermediate, and high-risk prostate cancer patients (5218 patients fitted, 1088 patients validated), treated by photons, protons, or carbon-ions. The review followed the preferred reporting item for systematic reviews and meta-analyses statement. Treatment regimens include standard fractionation and hypofractionation treatments. Residual analysis and goodness of fit statistics were applied. Results: The TCP model achieves a good level of fit overall, linear regression results in a p-value of <0.000 01 with an adjusted-weighted-R{sup 2} value of 0.77 and a weighted root mean squared error (wRMSE) of 1.2%, to the fitted clinical outcome data. Validation of the model utilizing three independent datasets obtained from the literature resulted in an adjusted-weighted-R{sup 2} value of 0.78 and a wRMSE of less than 1.8%, to the validation clinical outcome data. The weighted mean absolute residual across the entire dataset is found to be 5.4%. Conclusions: This TCP model fitted and validated to clinical outcome data, appears to be an appropriate model for the inclusion of all clinical prostate cancer risk categories, and allows evaluation of current EBRT modalities with regard to tumor control prediction.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗