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Use of Stable Mercury Isotopes to Assess Mercury and Methylmercury Transformation and Transport across Critical Interfaces from the Molecular to the Watershed Scale (Final Report)

This project titled “Use of Stable Mercury Isotopes to Assess Mercury and Methylmercury Transformation and Transport across Critical Interfaces from the Molecular to the Watershed Scale” represents a collaborative effort between the University of Michigan (Jason Demers, PI) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (Scott Brooks, co-I). Much has been learned about mercury (Hg) cycling in stream ecosystems, and East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) in particular, through decades of previous research. Nevertheless, some of the most fundamental questions regarding the sources of bioavailable Hg and its transformation to toxic methylmercury (MeHg) have remained unanswered. These fundamental questions include: (1) what are the sources and biogeochemical processes that lead to the input of dissolved Hg to stream water across critical subsurface interfaces within stream ecosystems, and EFPC in particular? and (2) what are the sources and biogeochemical processes that control the production and fate of bioaccumulative MeHg within stream ecosystems, and in EFPC in particular? To address these fundamental questions, our project aimed to couple laboratory experiments and field observations, both utilizing natural abundance Hg stable isotope techniques, to identify the processes responsible for generating mobile, bioavailable dissolved Hg from recalcitrant legacy sources within critical subsurface zones (e.g., streambed hyporheic zone, riparian floodplain subsurface). We used the isotopic signature of this bioavailable dissolved Hg to track its mobilization across these critical interfaces in order to link diffuse subsurface sources of dissolved Hg with increases in surface water dissolved Hg flux measured at the watershed scale. Additionally, our research aimed to determine the isotopic composition of MeHg within these same critical subsurface zones. We directly assessed the isotopic composition of MeHg within biota in order to gain insight into which subsurface sources of inorganic Hg and toxic MeHg are available for bioaccumulation within the EFPC ecosystem. Net fluxes of dissolved Hg along the flow path of EFPC were shown to vary spatially and temporally. In the Upper EFPC, within the Y12 boundary, stream water flux of dissolved Hg consistently decreased between the outfall and the downstream boundary of Y12 (57% ± 29%, 1SD). Within the Upper EFPC, an assessment of Hg isotopic composition suggested that losses were strongly reaction-driven, although isotopic diagnostics did not conform to any known processes. Downstream of Y12, in the upper reach of the Lower EFPC, dissolved Hg fluxes tended to increase during the dormant season (net gain of 11-120%), and decrease during the growing season (net loss of 23% +/- 18%, 1SD). In the downstream-most reach of Lower EFPC, dissolved Hg fluxes increased by 12-108% in 9 out of 10 monthly assessments. Overall, diffuse fluxes from the non-Y12 watershed accounted for 34% (+/- 17%, 1SD) of all dissolved Hg exported during base flow. Within Lower EFPC, an assessment of Hg isotopic composition was consistent with the contribution of diffuse Hg inputs from high-concentration hotspots within riparian floodplains and streambed hyporheic pore water. To investigate remobilization of recalcitrant Hg from legacy sediment sources, we developed procedures that coupled isotopic analysis with sequential extractions of streambed sediment. We found that the proportion of weakly-bound Hg within EFPC streambed sediment was relatively small, but could still account for a large proportion of the annual flux of dissolved Hg from EFPC. These sequential extractions also showed that this weakly-bound Hg fraction could be replenished from the much larger fraction of recalcitrant Hg in sediment. The isotopic composition of these weakly-bound and remobilized recalcitrant Hg fractions within the sediment was consistent with high-concentration dissolved Hg hotspots within hyporheic pore water. Thus, this research provided novel evidence that legacy mercury sources within streambed sediment could provide an ongoing contribution of dissolved Hg to surface waters. Finally, we developed new methods for the direct determination of the MeHg isotopic composition of organisms, which allowed a more direct evaluation of inorganic Hg and MeHg sources accumulating in the food web. We found that fish and aquatic invertebrates in both EFPC and a regional background site obtained inorganic Hg and MeHg from multiple isotopically distinct sources, including sediment, suspended particulates, and periphyton. Photodemethylation was found to be an important reaction influencing MeHg dynamics at both sites. However, the balance of microbial methylation and demethylation processes differed between the two streams, with fractionation resulting from methylation and demethylation processes being relatively in balance within the regional background site, whereas microbial methylation appeared to be dominant over microbial demethylation within the EFPC ecosystem. Broadly, the application of Hg isotopic analysis in this study led to numerous novel insights regarding the biogeochemical cycling of Hg in stream ecosystems. This research project promoted the development of two new approaches, including the coupling of sequential extractions with Hg isotopic analysis to assess remobilization of recalcitrant Hg within sediments, and a new method for the isotopic analysis of MeHg isolated from environmental samples. Both of these efforts represent advances in capacity for the field of mercury isotopic analysis and environmental assessment. Overall, this study demonstrates that the application of Hg stable isotope techniques continues to provide new insights into the biogeochemical cycling of Hg in complex aquatic environments, both within the EFPC and beyond.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Rapidly Deployable Acoustic Monitoring and Localization System Based on a Low-Cost Wave Buoy Platform

The primary objective of this project is to develop a cost-effective, fit-for-purpose environmental monitoring system, “NoiseSpotter®,” that characterizes, classifies, and provides accurate location information for anthropogenic and natural sounds in near real-time. NoiseSpotter was developed to support the evaluation of potential acoustic effects of marine energy (ME) projects. By utilizing a compact array of three acoustic particle motion sensors, NoiseSpotter triangulates individual bearings to provide sound source localization to within 5% accuracy, allowing the ability to discern ME device sounds relative to other confounding sounds in the environment, while providing location estimates to nearby marine mammals for environmental mitigation purposes. The ME industry needs proven solutions to meet environmental impact assessment needs. The NoiseSpotter® includes off-the-shelf, modular components that are easy to assemble and disassemble. Its acoustic particle motion sensors are commercially available and the data logger and real-time telemetry system is designed to be plug-and-play. The entire system is relatively compact and can be deployed from small vessels. NoiseSpotter’s near real-time capability enables operational monitoring of ME sounds, particularly during early stages of technology adoption to facilitate mitigation of potential noise effects. Widespread adoption of the technology for acoustic monitoring of ME devices requires that it be cost effective; hence the anticipated commercial cost of system hardware is $35,000. This project contributes to reducing barriers to ME testing through support of scientific research focused on reducing or mitigating environmental risks and lowering costs and complexity of environmental monitoring. This project has developed an acoustic monitoring system, NoiseSpotter® (U.S. Patent No. 11,156,734 and U.S. Registered Trademark No. 6,442,313), to detect and characterize baseline noise and sounds from ME operations and support geolocation of detected sounds. The intended outcome of the project is to mitigate concerns about the potential for ME device noise to alter marine mammal or fish behavior. NoiseSpotter® enables cost-effective, near real-time acoustic monitoring of an operational ME device relative to ambient environmental noise and provides a technical basis for ME developers seeking to navigate the permitting process in an efficient manner.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Cost Efficiency of Environmental DNA as Compared to Conventional Methods for Biodiversity Monitoring Purposes at Marine Energy Sites

The installation of marine energy systems may affect marine environments, and by extension, marine fish communities. Therefore, biomonitoring is an integral part of assessing impacts on species. Environmental DNA (eDNA) provides a noninvasive alternative to conventional monitoring surveys and the possibility of a more accurate assessment of species richness. Yet, its cost efficiency compared to traditional methods of monitoring is relatively unknown, especially when applied to monitoring around tidal, wave, and offshore wind energy installations. For this study, 202 peer-reviewed journal articles were dissected to inventory the diversity of supplies used for collecting and processing eDNA samples and to compile the average cost of eDNA surveys. Information collected included the type, volume, and brand of containers used in sampling; material, size, and brand of filters; and extraction methods. Cost information was gathered for the most common supplies, and a total cost was estimated for a hypothetical eDNA survey in Sequim Bay, WA, to compare with traditional methods of surveying such as beach seining and scuba surveys. The results showed a higher-than-expected diversity of supplies to collect and process eDNA samples. The most common supplies were 1 L Nalgene bottles at an average cost of 7.96 USD for collecting samples, 0.45 µm glass fiber Merck Millipore filters at an average cost of 1.51 USD for filtering samples, and the Qiagen DNeasy Blood and Tissue kit at 3.54 USD per sample for extracting DNA. When compared to beach seine and scuba surveys, eDNA surveys undertaken by senior researchers are less expensive for both initial surveys with all new materials as well as for follow-up surveys reusing some of the supplies. However, when surveys are done solely by students, eDNA surveys are more expensive than scuba surveys when no prior supplies are available and more than both beach seine and scuba surveys for follow-up surveys reusing supplies. In a professional sphere, where surveys are less often conducted by teams of students only, eDNA surveys are an effective and less-costly alternative to conventional methods. We anticipate that the development and refinement of eDNA methodology will continue to decrease surveying costs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The Vela Hotel Program: The AEC's Space-Based Nuclear Detection and Treaty Verification Program [Slides]

Early Interest in "Detection": "I would suggest that the best way to get reliable information in a short time would be to send from the States a man qualified to do the testing of the samples on the spot. This man should be officially a representative of the State Department, and his detecting devices, such as small portable Geiger Counters, could then go into Switzerland in the diplomatic pouch via air from Southern Italy. This man could then contact, through the Embassy, suitable people who could collect the water samples without arousing too much curiosity. A fishing trip in a boat would probably give the best disguise, as the fisherman could carry a water bottle in his lunch basket, and fill it after drinking the original contents. The water should be collected from the center of the river, to get the swiftest flowing water, so that the holdup could be minimized. In the lake, the water should be collected as near to the suspected site as possible, or as near to each of the inlet rivers as can be done. Speed in getting from the collection point to the counting room is of great importance, as you are, no doubt, aware." - Luis Alvarez to Major Furman, May 1944.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Energy Justice Framework for Marine Energy: Considerations from PacWave

To accelerate the energy transition while addressing land use conflicts and community opposition, federal policies and incentives require that new energy infrastructure provide direct benefits to communities, and ensure that these benefits remain in the community. The objective of this study is to develop a framework for collecting demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental data and supporting communities in understanding how such data can support more just and equitable outcomes. Specifically, this study addresses two research questions: (1) How can energy justice be incorporated into ME project life cycle, and (2) what social and economic data are needed to assess how marine energy development supports energy justice? Based on our literature review and the data collection template, a case study of PacWave, a wave energy testing facility located on the central Oregon Coast, is employed to draw more specific implications for how energy justice can be integrated into marine energy. PacWave represents a flagship investment by Oregon State University, the State of Oregon, and the Department of Energy. The facility is situated in Lincoln County, which is home to the Confederated Tribes of Siletz Indians and family-scale fishing enterprises. PacWave has strong community support as a testing site and holds potential to provide valuable lessons for other communities.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Spallation Neutron Source Second Target Station Construction Project: Biological Assessment

The Endangered Species Act of 1973 (16 U.S.C. 153 et seq.), as amended (ESA or Act) in section 7(a)(1) directs Federal agencies to conserve and recover listed species and use their authorities in the furtherance of the purposes of the Act by carrying out programs for the conservation of endangered and threatened species so that listing is no longer necessary (50 CFR §402). Furthermore, the Act in section 7(a)(2) directs Federal agencies to consult (referred to as section 7 consultation) with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) when their activities “may affect” a listed species or designated critical habitat. This biological assessment (BA) analyzes the potential effects of the proposed Spallation Neutron Source Second Target Station STS construction project on the U. S. Department of Energy Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) on Federal listed threatened, endangered, proposed, and under consideration for Federal listing bat species, pursuant to section 7(a)(2) of the ESA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Behavior, Distribution, and Passage Metrics of Juvenile Chinook Salmon Above and Below Lookout Point Dam, Fall 2016 and Spring 2017 (Final Report)

This report presents the results of a fish behavior, distribution, and passage study conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Portland District (USACE) at Lookout Point Dam (or Lookout) during the fall of 2016 (October–December) and spring of 2017 (March–June). The goal of this study was to provide biologists, engineers, resource managers, and regional decision-makers with information about the behavior, distribution, and passage of juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) through the reservoir and tailwaters of Lookout. The results of this study are intended to inform decision-making about long-term structural and operational measures to help rebuild populations of Upper Willamette River spring Chinook salmon listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Passage and Survival of Chinook Salmon at Lookout Point Dam, Fall 2017 and Spring 2018 (Final Report)

This report presents the results of a fish passage and survival study conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers-Portland District (USACE) at Lookout Point Dam (Lookout Point) during fall 2017 (October–February) and spring 2018 (March–July). The goal of the study was to provide biologists, engineers, resource managers, and regional decisionmakers with information about the behavior, distribution, passage, and survival of juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) through the Lookout Point reservoir, project, and tailwaters. The results of this study are intended to inform decision-making about long-term structural and operational measures to help rebuild populations of Upper Willamette River Chinook salmon listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Radiological Impact of 2023 Operations at the Savannah River Site

This report presents the environmental dose assessment methods and the estimated potential doses to the public from 2023 Savannah River Site (SRS) air and liquid radioactive releases. Also documented are potential doses from special-case exposure scenarios, such as the consumption of wildlife or goat milk. Dose to the Offsite Representative Person The 2023 dose to the offsite representative person from SRS liquid releases was 0.14 mrem and from SRS air releases it was 0.016 mrem. To show compliance with the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) all pathway dose standard of 100 mrem/yr, SRS conservatively adds these two doses for a total representative person dose of 0.16 mrem which is 0.16% of the DOE standard. Sportsman Doses Onsite Hunter: SRS conducts annual hunts to control onsite deer and feral hog populations. The estimated dose from consuming harvested deer or hog meat is determined for every onsite hunter. During 2023, the maximum potential dose an onsite hunter received was 9.42 mrem, or 9.42% of DOE’s 100 mrem/yr all pathway dose standard. Creek Mouth Fisherman: SRS estimated the maximum potential dose from fish consumption at 0.17 mrem from bass collected at the mouth of Lower Three Runs. This dose is 0.17% of the DOE standard. SRS bases this hypothetical dose on the low probability scenario that, during 2023, a fisherman consumed 24 kg (53 lbs) of bass caught exclusively from the mouth of Lower Three Runs. Release of Material Containing Residual Radioactivity SRS did not release any real property (land or buildings) in 2023. SRS unconditionally released a total of 13,324 items of personal property (such as tools) from radiological areas in 2023. Most of these items did not leave the Site. However, all of these items required no additional radiological controls post-survey as they met DOE Order 458.1 release criteria. Radiation Dose to Aquatic and Terrestrial Biota SRS conducts screening evaluations of plant and animal doses for aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. For 2023, all SRS aquatic system locations passed the initial (Level 1) screenings and no further assessments were required at those locations. For the land-based systems evaluation, SRS performed initial screenings using concentration data from the five onsite radiological soil sampling locations. Typically, SRS collects and analyzes only one soil sample per year from each location. For 2023, all land-based locations passed their initial (Level 1) pathway screenings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

'Omics and Big Data in Harmful Algal Bloom Research

Phytoplankton, a group including eukaryotic microalgae and cyanobacteria, play a crucial climate role converting CO 2 into organic carbon through global primary production. They support a wide range of life, both freshwater and marine, from zooplankton to fish and mammals. While they are essential in nutrient cycles, certain phytoplankton species can proliferate excessively under favorable conditions, leading to harmful algal blooms (HABs) that pose significant threats to human and ecosystem health through the toxins they produce.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

PNNL Review of Federal and State Agency Regulatory Streamlining Practices

All major federal actions that have the potential to significantly affect the environment (e.g., land purchases and/or issuing grants, permits, leases, or licenses) are subject to multiple statutes including the following: • an environmental analysis under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) • potential consultations with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and/or National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) under the Endangered Species Act of 1973, as amended (ESA) • potential consultations with State Historical Preservation Officers (SHPOs) and/or tribal nations [often Tribal Historic Preservation Officers (THPOs)] under the National Historic Preservation Act of 1966 (NHPA). Given the size of the federal government and the corresponding variability and complexity in its missions, different branches within the federal government have a fairly wide range of approaches to fulfill their NEPA and consultation requitements. Many of these approaches are founded on the desire to streamline their NEPA and consultation processes while meeting the spirit and letter of the regulations. Some federal and state environmental/engineering agencies have developed web-based dashboards that provide a single web location for permit application submittals. They also use general permits in their various permitting processes. General permits can streamline the permitting process by establishing identical requirements for all eligible applicants. This reduces the time these agencies need to spend reviewing individual permits and setting specific requirements. In addition, general permits do not require a case-specific permit application. This paper presents a sampling of effective agency examples of streamlining the NEPA process and associated agency consultations. It also includes several examples of federal and state agency web portals, online application systems, and general permits that make application processes more efficient and accessible.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating the Effectiveness of a Detection and Deterrent System in Reducing Golden Eagle Fatalities at Operational Wind Facilities

The Renewable Energy Wildlife Institute (REWI) was appointed as the prime awardee of DOE award number DE-EE0007883 to lead a team of scientists, wind developers, and technology manufacturers toward the overarching goal of evaluating the effectiveness of the current DTBird system in minimizing the risk of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) and other large soaring raptors from approaching the rotor-swept zone (RSZ) of operating wind turbines. As part of this goal, the team set out to 1) quantify the expected reduction in collision risk for golden eagles from operation of the detection and deterrence modules in a manner that supports the approach used by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to assess and credit facility operators for their efforts to minimize predicted collision fatalities and 2) provide information to help improve the technology to maximize its effectiveness. DTBird is an automated detection and audio deterrent system created by the Spanish company Liquen, designed to discourage birds from entering the RSZ of spinning wind turbines. The system uses cameras to automatically detect airborne targets of interest, records each such event in an online database, and triggers a warning signal (loud sound) if the tracked object has moved close to the turbine. If the object moves even closer to the RSZ, a more aggressive dissuasion signal is broadcast. To meet our objectives, the team conducted a two-year experiment at the Goodnoe Hills wind facility in Washington state, in which 14 turbines were outfitted with DTBird units. Daily, each DTBird-equipped turbine was randomly assigned to a control or treatment group. Treatment turbines operated with DTBird running as intended—broadcasting warning or deterrent signals when DTBird detected a target within range. On control turbines, no sound signals were broadcast if a moving target triggered the DTBird system. The team also flew unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) designed to coarsely mimic the general size, weight, and coloration of golden eagles in programmed flight transects across DTBird detection ranges to quantify DTBird’s ability to detect intended targets and to evaluate factors that influence the probability of detection and DTBird’s response distances. Additionally, the team evaluated the behavioral responses of in situ eagles exposed to spinning turbines alone (visual and sound influences) versus spinning turbines plus broadcasted DTBird audio deterrents, to estimate the effectiveness of deterrence by the DTBird system. The data and results from these investigations were combined with those from a pilot study conducted at the Manzana Wind Power Project in California to better evaluate DTBird’s effectiveness across different landscapes.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Linking Spatiotemporal Biological Data to Predict Harmful Algal Blooms

Cyanobacterial Harmful Algal Blooms (cHABs) have significant impacts on an affected region’s economy, ecology, and human health. The blooms can release toxins that kill fish and poison water for people and animals. The global adverse effects of cHABs are exacerbated by the consequences of climate change and increased pollution. Though the phenomena are well documented, scientists’ efforts to mitigate the damage are hampered by insufficient predictive models and incomplete granular knowledge of cHAB community structure. With a goal of leveraging bioinformatics and machine learning tools to better understand and predict cHABs, we are first exploring water sample data sets. Using nearly four thousand samples from the National Center for Biotechnology Information Sequence Read Archive (NCBI-SRA) across 16 years with latitude and longitude embedded in the metadata, we mapped the location of the samples onto a Lake Erie shape file. We combined information about location, date, and community taxa in the NCBI samples to discover factors that determine cHAB features. The data are separated into three distinct zones, with the majority pooled at the southwest end of the lake and occurring in 2017. The samples are rich in biological data; our next steps are to carry out whole genome sequence analysis and use the community profiles as part of our predictive machine learning model.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Mercury Detection Utilizing an Aquatic Animal as a Remote-Sensing Platform

Mercury species in open water, especially the accumulated methylmercury ion, pose a threat to fish and environment. Therefore, it is important to develop a small sensor package that can be integrated into a biotelemetry sensor carried by an aquatic animal, enhancing the ability to detect mercury contamination in large water areas. A quartz crystal microbalance (QCM) sensor using metal-organic framework (MOF) as sensing material was developed to detect mercury and methylmercury ions in real time based on acoustic wave perturbation. Thiol groups were introduced into the MOF UiO-66 through the organic linker to prepare the UiO-66-SH which was confirmed by infrared spectroscopy results. Batch adsorption experiments were conducted for the Hg 2+ , CH 3 Hg + , and Ca 2+ ions adsorption in the UiO-66-SH. The adsorption capacities of the mercury ions were more than an order of magnitude higher than those of the competing Ca 2+ ions at the same concentration. The frequency changes of the QCM sensor with the UiO-66-SH sensing film were an order of magnitude higher than those of the controlled baseline QCM sensor without a sensing film. Additionally, the frequency change can be tailored by adjusting the thickness of the MOF film and the adsorption properties of the sensing material. The sensor frequency change correlates well with ion adsorption capacities.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Building research capacity in Southern Appalachian mountain wetlands

This project increased research capacity in Southern Appalachian wetlands by facilitating new collaborations between the PI (UNC Asheville) and DOE and academic research partners. Mountain wetlands are among the rarest natural communities in the Southern Appalachians; most of the sites contain rare or endangered species and have been incorporated into or are being considered for the new Mountain Bogs National Wildlife Refuge (established in 2015). PI Wilcox’s research since 2010 has focused on wetland hydrology at over a dozen priority field sites in western North Carolina, eastern Tennessee, and northern Georgia. This project provided time and funding to learn about DOE programs and resources, including meteorological data, watershed modeling programs, analytical capabilities, and computing facilities. PI Wilcox was able to meet potential research partners at professional conferences and the DOE-BER-ESS PI meeting and invite several of those potential partners to visit UNC Asheville and nearby field sites in Western North Carolina. These connections have resulted in three new collaborative research proposals, and a new cooperative agreement with the US Fish and Wildlife Service that includes two new field sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Land of Opportunity: Potential for Renewable Energy on Federal Lands

Renewable energy (RE) in the United States has historically been deployed primarily on private lands, but the growing interest in RE development, generally across the country and specifically on federal lands, raises questions about the potential for RE on public lands. This study seeks to estimate RE technical potential on federal lands and project the amount of RE to be developed on federal lands under decarbonization scenarios for the contiguous United States. The study applied a combination of high-resolution geospatial analysis and power sector modeling and relied on multiple partner federal agencies and land administrators from the Bureau of Land Management, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the U.S. Forest Service, the U.S. Department of Defense, and the U.S. Department of Energy. In our reference siting access case, we estimate 44 million acres of federal land across the contiguous United States is potentially suitable for UPV development, which corresponds to a capacity technical potential of 5,750 gigawatts (GW) (Figure ES-1). Federal land area available for wind development is similar to UPV but wind’s generating capacity technical potential is lower (875 GW). The technical potential is estimated for two geothermal technologies, hydrothermal and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), both of which have a smaller amount of federal land available for development (12 and 27 million acres, respectively). However, in terms of capacity, the technical potential for EGS (975 GW) is approximately equal to wind’s technical potential and there is an estimated 130 GW of hydrothermal potential. We also developed cases with more-limited land available for UPV and wind (for federal and non-federal lands) resulting in 96% reduction of wind capacity potential and 70% reduction for UPV. In a case with additional constraints applied to non-federal lands only (Limited Private), the overall (federal and non-federal) technical potential declines but the share of that technical potential on federal lands is higher than in the other siting cases. The technical potential is the maximum amount that could be developed, but only a small fraction would be developed or needed in the future. Across seven scenarios that achieve 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035, we estimate 26 GW to 270 GW of RE capacity could be deployed on federal lands by 2035. The three central scenarios have 51–84 GW of RE deployed by 2035 and requiring about 500,000 to 1,000,000 acres of total land area. Direct land consumption is less than total land use required, thus enabling co-use opportunities. The large technical potential estimates and the increasing deployment projections from the collection of scenarios show the opportunities for RE development on federal lands. Capturing these opportunities-while minimizing conflicts with other land uses, federal department or agency missions, and public interest, and simultaneously maximizing the economic, grid, and social value of the projects-would require collaborative planning among federal land administrators, grid planners, project developers, the public, and other stakeholders.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Financial Analysis of the Smallmouth Bass Flows implemented at the Glen Canyon Dam during Water Year 2024

The Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) is a Colorado River Storage Project (CRSP) power resource that is a component of the Salt Lake City Area Integrated Projects (SLCA/IP). The 2016 record of decision (ROD) for the GCD long-term experimental and management plan (LTEMP) final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) specifies criteria for GCD monthly water releases, daily and hourly operating limits, and experimental releases. This report presents a financial analysis of the Smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) (SMB) flows implemented at GCD during Water Year (WY) 2024. These bypass flows were introduced by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) as an emergency response to the growing threat posed by invasive SMB in the Colorado River ecosystem downstream of the dam. SMB are a non-native predatory species that pose a significant threat to native fish populations, including the endangered humpback chub (Gila cypha). The thermal regime below GCD, typically cold due to hypolimnetic releases from Lake Powell, has historically served as a thermal barrier limiting SMB establishment. However, persistently low reservoir levels in recent years have reduced stratification in Lake Powell, allowing warmer water to be released downstream. This has enabled SMB to spawn successfully below the dam, prompting urgent ecological concerns. To mitigate the risk of SMB proliferation, the USBR implemented a series of bypass flows in WY 2024. Drawn from a lower elevation than the penstocks, the bypass structures released cooler water downstream. These short-duration bypass flows aimed to keep temperatures cool enough to prevent SMB from spawning, thereby reducing the ecological threat posed by this invasive species. Although motivated by ecological objectives, these bypass flows came with financial tradeoffs. Releasing water through the bypass structures instead of the turbines at GCD reduced hydropower generation, resulting in a significantly lower financial position for Western Area Power Administration (WAPA), which is responsible for marketing the electricity produced by the GCD Powerplant. This report analyzes the financial impact of the SMB flows implemented from July to November 2024. These experimental releases led to an estimated financial cost of approximately $18.9 million, primarily driven by the substantial volume of water diverted through the bypass structures. This study applies an integrated set of tools to estimate WAPA financial impacts by simulating GCD under two types of cases; namely, (1) a “With Experiment” case that mimics the water operations that actually occurred, including the SMB bypass flows, and (2) a “Without Experiment” case that simulates operations under the assumption that the SMB flows did not occur. Both cases comply with LTEMP hourly and daily operating criteria, and the monthly water release volumes are assumed to be identical under both cases. The Colorado River Storage Project Python-based model (CRiSPPy) model was the main modeling tool used to simulate the dispatch of the GCD hydropower plant and associated water releases from Lake Powell. In the modeling process, the research team used extensive data sets and historical information on SLCA/IP power plant characteristics, hydrologic conditions, and WAPA’s power purchases and sales prices.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Hanford Site Ecological Monitoring Report for Calendar Year 2017

The U.S. Department of Energy, Richland Operations Office (DOE-RL) conducts ecological monitoring on the Hanford Site to collect and track data needed to ensure compliance with an array of environmental laws, regulations, and policies governing the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) activities. Ecological monitoring data provide baseline information about the plants, animals, and habitats under DOE-RL stewardship at the Hanford Site required for decision making under the National Environmental Policy Act and Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act. DOE/EIS-0222-FU, Final Hanford Comprehensive Land Use Plan Environmental Impact Statement, (CLUP) evaluates potential environmental impacts associated with implementing a comprehensive land use plan for the Hanford Site over the next 50 years. The vision for the DOE-RL-managed portion of the Hanford Site focuses not only on the cleanup of nuclear facilities and waste sites but on the protection of groundwater, the Columbia River, and the restoration of the land for access and use. To reach these goals DOE-RL is working closely with partners, such as the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and National Park Service, to enable use of the Hanford land consistent with the CLUP. As DOE-RL moves toward accomplishing this vision, monitoring the ecological resources present to determine whether there is a need for conservation and/or protection of any resources will be critical for making informed decisions for responsible site stewardship.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗