Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “EXPECTATION VALUE”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,459 records · Page 81
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1995

Inductive Approaches to Improving Diagnosis and Design for Diagnosability

The first research area under this grant addresses the problem of classifying time series according to their morphological features in the time domain. A supervised learning system called CALCHAS, which induces a classification procedure for signatures from preclassified examples, was developed. For each of several signature classes, the system infers a model that captures the class's morphological features using Bayesian model induction and the minimum message length approach to assign priors. After induction, a time series (signature) is classified in one of the classes when there is enough evidence to support that decision. Time series with sufficiently novel features, belonging to classes not present in the training set, are recognized as such. A second area of research assumes two sources of information about a system: a model or domain theory that encodes aspects of the system under study and data from actual system operations over time. A model, when it exists, represents strong prior expectations about how a system will perform. Our work with a diagnostic model of the RCS (Reaction Control System) of the Space Shuttle motivated the development of SIG, a system which combines information from a model (or domain theory) and data. As it tracks RCS behavior, the model computes quantitative and qualitative values. Induction is then performed over the data represented by both the 'raw' features and the model-computed high-level features. Finally, work on clustering for operating mode discovery motivated some important extensions to the clustering strategy we had used. One modification appends an iterative optimization technique onto the clustering system; this optimization strategy appears to be novel in the clustering literature. A second modification improves the noise tolerance of the clustering system. In particular, we adapt resampling-based pruning strategies used by supervised learning systems to the task of simplifying hierarchical clusterings, thus making post-clustering analysis easier.

Fisher, Douglas H.↗
NASA NTRS1960

An Exploratory Statistical Analysis of a Planet Approach-Phase Guidance Scheme Using Angular Measurements with Significant Error

An exploratory analysis of vehicle guidance during the approach to a target planet is presented. The objective of the guidance maneuver is to guide the vehicle to a specific perigee distance with a high degree of accuracy and minimum corrective velocity expenditure. The guidance maneuver is simulated by considering the random sampling of real measurements with significant error and reducing this information to prescribe appropriate corrective action. The instrumentation system assumed includes optical and/or infrared devices to indicate range and a reference angle in the trajectory plane. Statistical results are obtained by Monte-Carlo techniques and are shown as the expectation of guidance accuracy and velocity-increment requirements. Results are nondimensional and applicable to any planet within limits of two-body assumptions. The problem of determining how many corrections to make and when to make them is a consequence of the conflicting requirement of accurate trajectory determination and propulsion. Optimum values were found for a vehicle approaching a planet along a parabolic trajectory with an initial perigee distance of 5 radii and a target perigee of 1.02 radii. In this example measurement errors were less than i minute of arc. Results indicate that four corrections applied in the vicinity of 50, 16, 15, and 1.5 radii, respectively, yield minimum velocity-increment requirements. Thrust devices capable of producing a large variation of velocity-increment size are required. For a vehicle approaching the earth, miss distances within 32 miles are obtained with 90-percent probability. Total velocity increments used in guidance are less than 3300 feet per second with 90-percent probability. It is noted that the above representative results are valid only for the particular guidance scheme hypothesized in this analysis. A parametric study is presented which indicates the effects of measurement error size, initial perigee, and initial energy on the guidance requirements. Measurement error size significantly affects both guidance accuracy and velocity-increment expenditure. The initial trajectory, as given by its perigee and energy, affects the velocity-increment expenditure but not final guidance accuracy.

Friedlander, Alan L.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Fluorescence Studies of Protein Crystal Nucleation

Fluorescence can be used to study protein crystal nucleation through methods such as anisotropy, quenching, and resonance energy transfer (FRET), to follow pH and ionic strength changes, and follow events occurring at the growth interface. We have postulated, based upon a range of experimental evidence that the growth unit of tetragonal hen egg white lysozyme is an octamer. Several fluorescent derivatives of chicken egg white lysozyme have been prepared. The fluorescent probes lucifer yellow (LY), cascade blue, and 5-((2-aminoethyl)aminonapthalene-1-sulfonic acid (EDANS), have been covalently attached to ASP 101. All crystallize in the characteristic tetragonal form, indicating that the bound probes are likely laying within the active site cleft. Crystals of the LY and EDANS derivatives have been found to diffract to at least 1.7 A. A second group of derivatives is to the N-terminal amine group, and these do not crystallize as this site is part of the contact region between the adjacent 43 helix chains. However derivatives at these sites would not interfere with formation of the 43 helices in solution. Preliminary FRET studies have been carried out using N-terminal bound pyrene acetic acid (Ex 340 nm, Em 376 nm) lysozyme as a donor and LY (Ex -425 nm, Em 525 nm) labeled lysozyme as an acceptor. FRET data have been obtained at pH 4.6, 0.1 M NaAc buffer, at 5 and 7% NaCl, 4 C. The corresponding Csat values are 0.471 and 0.362 mg/ml (approximately 3.3 and approximately 2.5 x 10(exp -5) M respectively). The data at both salt concentrations show a consistent trend of decreasing fluorescence intensity of the donor species (PAA) with increasing total protein concentration. This decrease is more pronounced at 7% NaCl, consistent with the expected increased intermolecular interactions at higher salt concentrations reflected in the lower solubility. The calculated average distance between any two protein molecules at 5 x 10(exp -6) M is approximately 70nm, well beyond the range where any FRET can be expected. Results from these and ongoing studies will be presented.

Pusey, Marc L.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Unified Models of Turbulence and Nonlinear Wave Evolution in the Extended Solar Corona and Solar Wind

The PI (Cranmer) and Co-I (A. van Ballegooijen) made significant progress toward the goal of building a "unified model" of the dominant physical processes responsible for the acceleration of the solar wind. The approach outlined in the original proposal comprised two complementary pieces: (1) to further investigate individual physical processes under realistic coronal and solar wind conditions, and (2) to extract the dominant physical effects from simulations and apply them to a one-dimensional and time-independent model of plasma heating and acceleration. The accomplishments in the report period are thus divided into these two categories: 1a. Focused Study of Kinetic MHD Turbulence. We have developed a model of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence in the extended solar corona that contains the effects of collisionless dissipation and anisotropic particle heating. A turbulent cascade is one possible way of generating small-scale fluctuations (easy to dissipate/heat) from a pre-existing population of low-frequency Alfven waves (difficult to dissipate/heat). We modeled the cascade as a combination of advection and diffusion in wavenumber space. The dominant spectral transfer occurs in the direction perpendicular to the background magnetic field. As expected from earlier models, this leads to a highly anisotropic fluctuation spectrum with a rapidly decaying tail in the parallel wavenumber direction. The wave power that decays to high enough frequencies to become ion cyclotron resonant depends on the relative strengths of advection and diffusion in the cascade. For the most realistic values of these parameters, though, there is insufficient power to heat protons and heavy ions. The dominant oblique waves undergo Landau damping, which implies strong parallel electron heating. We thus investigated the nonlinear evolution of the electron velocity distributions (VDFs) into parallel beams and discrete phase-space holes (similar to those seen in the terrestrial magnetosphere) which are an alternate means of heating protons via stochastic interactions similar to particle-particle collisions. 1b. Focused Study of the Multi-Mode Detailed Balance Formalism. The PI began to explore the feasibility of using the "weak turbulence," or detailed-balance theory of Tsytovich, Melrose, and others to encompass the relevant physics of the solar wind. This study did not go far, however, because if the "strong" MHD turbulence discussed above is a dominant player in the wind's acceleration region, this formalism is inherently not applicable to the corona. We will continue to study the various published approaches to the weak turbulence formalism, especially with an eye on ways to parameterize nonlinear wave reflection rates. 2. Building the Unified Model Code Architecture. We have begun developing the computational model of a time-steady open flux tube in the extended corona. The model will be "unified" in the sense that it will include (simultaneously for the first time) as many of the various proposed physical processes as possible, all on equal footing. To retain this generality, we have formulated the problem in two interconnected parts: a completely kinetic model for the particles, using the Monte Carlo approach, and a finite-difference approach for the self-consistent fluctuation spectra. The two codes are run sequentially and iteratively until complete consistency is achieved. The current version of the Monte Carlo code incorporates gravity, the zero-current electric field, magnetic mirroring, and collisions. The fluctuation code incorporates WKJ3 wave action conservation and the cascade/dissipation processes discussed above. The codes are being run for various test problems with known solutions. Planned additions to the codes include prescriptions for nonlinear wave steepening, kinetic velocity-space diffusion, and multi-mode coupling (including reflection and refraction).

Cranmer, Steven R.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Optimal Strategies for Validating TRMM Rainfall Estimates with Rain-Gauge Data

In spite of all their problems, rain gauges measure rainfall in such a direct way when compared with other methods of estimating rainfall that comparing their totals to satellite estimates remains an essential tool in the validation of satellite products. Some disagreement between averages of satellite data and rain-gauge data is expected because of the very different sampling patterns of the two systems--the satellite provides only occasional snapshots of large areas, whereas rain gauges provide continuous measurements over very small areas. A quantitative estimate of the expected level of disagreement due to the differences in sampling is needed in order for comparisons of the two kinds of averages to be informative. As part of an earlier effort to determine the sampling error of satellite averages, a space-time model for rainfall statistics was developed. Sets of parameter values for the model have been obtained for which the model statistics are found to agree quite well with those of radar data taken over the Atlantic during GATE and the western Pacific during TOGA COARE. Although the model was intended to represent the statistics of relatively large scale fluctuations of rain, it is surprisingly consistent with the very different scales on which rain gauges observe. Implications for maximizing the benefit in comparisons of rain gauge averages and TRMM estimates are derived using the model predictions.

Bell, Thomas L.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Visual assessment of the radiation distribution in the ISS Lab module: visualization in the human body

The US Lab module of the International Space Station (ISS) is a primary working area where the crewmembers are expected to spend majority of their time. Because of the directionality of radiation fields caused by the Earth shadow, trapped radiation pitch angle distribution, and inherent variations in the ISS shielding, a model is needed to account for these local variations in the radiation distribution. We present the calculated radiation dose (rem/yr) values for over 3,000 different points in the working area of the Lab module and estimated radiation dose values for over 25,000 different points in the human body for a given ambient radiation environment. These estimated radiation dose values are presented in a three dimensional animated interactive visualization format. Such interactive animated visualization of the radiation distribution can be generated in near real-time to track changes in the radiation environment during the orbit precession of the ISS.

NASA Center JSC↗
NASA NTRS2006

Nucleosynthesis: Stellar and Solar Abundances and Atomic Data

Abundance observations indicate the presence of often surprisingly large amounts of neutron capture (i.e., s- and r-process) elements in old Galactic halo and globular cluster stars. These observations provide insight into the nature of the earliest generations of stars in the Galaxy the progenitors of the halo stars responsible for neutron-capture synthesis. Comparisons of abundance trends can be used to understand the chemical evolution of the Galaxy and the nature of heavy element nucleosynthesis. In addition age determinations, based upon long-lived radioactive nuclei abundances, can now be obtained. These stellar abundance determinations depend critically upon atomic data. Improved laboratory transition probabilities have been recently obtained for a number of elements. These new gf values have been used to greatly refine the abundances of neutron-capture elemental abundances in the solar photosphere and in very metal-poor Galactic halo stars. The newly determined stellar abundances are surprisingly consistent with a (relative) Solar System r-process pattern, and are also consistent with abundance predictions expected from such neutron-capture nucleosynthesis.

Cowan, John J.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of Duct Propagation Models

This paper presents results of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses conducted to assess the relative merits of three duct propagation codes. Results from this study are intended to support identification of a "working envelope" within which to use the various approaches underlying these propagation codes. This investigation considers a segmented liner configuration that models the NASA Langley Grazing Incidence Tube, for which a large set of measured data was available. For the uncertainty analysis, the selected input parameters (source sound pressure level, average Mach number, liner impedance, exit impedance, static pressure and static temperature) are randomly varied over a range of values. Uncertainty limits (95% confidence levels) are computed for the predicted values from each code, and are compared with the corresponding 95% confidence intervals in the measured data. Generally, the mean values of the predicted attenuation are observed to track the mean values of the measured attenuation quite well and predicted confidence intervals tend to be larger in the presence of mean flow. A two-level, six factor sensitivity study is also conducted in which the six inputs are varied one at a time to assess their effect on the predicted attenuation. As expected, the results demonstrate the liner resistance and reactance to be the most important input parameters. They also indicate the exit impedance is a significant contributor to uncertainty in the predicted attenuation.

Nark, Douglas M.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Statistical Mechanics of Solar Wind Hydroxylation at the Moon, Within Lunar Magnetic Anomalies, and at Phobos

We present a new formalism to describe the outgassing of hydrogen initially implanted by the solar wind protons into exposed soils on airless bodies. The formalism applies a statistical mechanics approach similar to that applied recently to molecular adsorption onto activated surfaces. The key element enabling this formalism is the recognition that the interatomic potential between the implanted H and regolith-residing oxides is not of singular value but possess a distribution of trapped energy values at a given temperature, F(U,T). All subsequent derivations of the outward diffusion and H retention rely on the specific properties of this distribution. We find that solar wind hydrogen can be retained if there are sites in the implantation layer with activation energy values exceeding 0.5eV. We especially examine the dependence of H retention applying characteristic energy values found previously for irradiated silica and mature lunar samples. We also apply the formalism to two cases that differ from the typical solar wind implantation at the Moon. First, we test for a case of implantation in magnetic anomaly regions where significantly lower-energy ions of solar wind origin are expected to be incident with the surface. In magnetic anomalies, H retention is found to be reduced due to the reduced ion flux and shallower depth of implantation. Second, we also apply the model to Phobos where the surface temperature range is not as extreme as the Moon. We find the H atom retention in this second case is higher than the lunar case due to the reduced thermal extremes (that reduces outgassing).

Solar Wind↗
NASA NTRS2011

NASA Occupant Protection Standards Development

Current National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) occupant protection standards and requirements are based on extrapolations of biodynamic models, which were based on human tests performed under pre-Space Shuttle human flight programs where the occupants were in different suit and seat configurations than is expected for the Multi Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) and Commercial Crew programs. As a result, there is limited statistical validity to the occupant protection standards. Furthermore, the current standards and requirements have not been validated in relevant spaceflight suit, seat configurations or loading conditions. The objectives of this study were to develop new standards and requirements for occupant protection and rigorously validate these new standards with sub-injurious human testing. To accomplish these objectives we began by determining which critical injuries NASA would like to protect for. We then defined the anthropomorphic test device (ATD) and the associated injury metrics of interest. Finally, we conducted a literature review of available data for the Test Device for Human Occupant Restraint New Technology (THOR-NT) ATD to determine injury assessment reference values (IARV) to serve as a baseline for further development. To better understand NASA s environment, we propose conducting sub-injurious human testing in spaceflight seat and suit configurations with spaceflight dynamic loads, with a sufficiently high number of subjects to validate no injury during nominal landing loads. In addition to validate nominal loads, the THOR-NT ATD will be tested in the same conditions as the human volunteers, allowing correlation between human and ATD responses covering the Orion nominal landing environment and commercial vehicle expected nominal environments. All testing will be conducted without the suit and with the suit to ascertain the contribution of the suit to human and ATD responses. In addition to the testing campaign proposed, additional data analysis is proposed to mine existing human injury and response data from other sources, including military volunteer testing, automotive Crash Injury Research Engineering Network (CIREN), and IndyCar impact and injury data. These data sources can allow a better extrapolation of the ATD responses to off-nominal conditions above the nominal range that can safely be tested. These elements will be used to develop injury risk functions for each of the injury metrics measured from the ATD. These risk functions would serve as the basis for the NASA standards. Finally, we propose defining standard test methodology for evaluating future spacecraft designs against the IARVs, including developing a star-rating system to allow crew safety comparisons between vehicles.

Somers, Jeffrey T.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Decision Aid for Conjunction Risk Mitigation by Differential Drag

In the previous five years, the rate of conjunctions that the NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team processed and analyzed has more than tripled. (NASA CARA, 2024) New missions in the early development phases are now required to plan for dealing with conjunctions under the present space environment, and also projecting forward into a future likely with even further increased utilization of the space environment. Some missions are investigating the possibility of using differential drag to remediate conjunctions without expending limited fuel or for missions without propulsive capabilities. The NASA CARA team studied the historical record of conjunctions to evaluate the circumstances under which differential drag may be successfully applied and have developed a series of tables to use as a decision aid for missions considering differential drag. Currently, if a CARA-protected mission with maneuvering capabilities is predicted to have a conjunction with probability of collision (Pc) greater than 7E-5 (the default value of the ‘yellow threshold’, which may have some other value agreed by CARA and the mission during the Orbital Collison Avoidance Planning (OCAP) process), CARA will use its Maneuver Trade Space (MTS) tool to evaluate and recommend options for the timing and magnitude of a risk mitigation maneuver (RMM), based on the mission’s capabilities. If the conjunction’s Pc is greater than 1E-4, the ‘red threshold’, then an RMM must be executed per NASA Procedural Requirements (NPR) 8079.1 (NASA, 2023), although missions may execute an RMM even if the Pc is lower. The magnitude of the maneuver is typically a few cm/s, and CARA estimates how many will be required for the mission’s nominal lifetime – typically a few per year – during the OCAP process, to inform the mission’s delta-V requirement. For traditional satellites, this is usually smaller than other requirements for orbit insertion, maintenance, and disposal, but for CubeSats or other small satellite missions, a propulsion system may not provide much more than a few cm/s of delta-V or may not fit at all within the available budget of money, time, size, weight, and/or power (SWaP). Conversely, CubeSats often have deployable solar panels, which offer the capacity to have much higher areas facing some directions than others. Such a mission can instead use ‘differential drag’ to remediate a conjunction -- in other words, change its drag area (usually increasing) to deviate from the predicted collision course. This is how Planet’s Dove spacecraft maintain their formations and remediate conjunction risks without having on-board propulsion (Foster, et al., 2017) (Griffith, et al., 2021). CARA has been developing improvements to MTS to support differential-drag for NASA's missions -- where it is effective. CARA records all conjunctions of their protected payloads, with historical records starting in 2005 (with significant conjunction events starting to occur on or after 2013). From this record, approximately 7,300 had a Pc greater than 1E-4 at 3 days prior to the time of closest approach, the time analyzed for differential drag efficacy. Of those, approximately 4,300 had fully-defined covariance matrices stored for both the primary and secondary objects; this set of conjunctions is the basis for the analysis of this work. CARA’s MTS tool was used to propagate the primary satellite forward from that decision point with varying degrees of increase to ballistic coefficient (BC). Because these conjunctions came from multiple missions, the nondimensional ‘delta-BC’ factor was used to quantify and normalize the increase in ballistic coefficient, defined as follows: Delta-BC = BC_new / BC_old - 1 Positive delta-BC factors represent an increase in drag compared to the nominal attitude, while negative delta-BC factors (to a minimum of -1) represent a decrease in drag. At the conclusion of the differential-drag ‘maneuver’, the Pc was recalculated to evaluate whether or not the conjunction was mitigated (Pc < 3E-6). These results were then binned and sorted along several axes, including altitude, amount of delta-BC, and (pre-maneuver) rate of energy dissipation (EDR), to identify underlying patterns. The altitude plot is shown in Figure 1. To validate this analysis, we consulted the record of a NASA mission which uses differential drag to maintain its orbit and remediate conjunction risk. CARA’s empirical record of the mission’s orbit history suggests it achieves a delta-BC of 2.2. Of the twenty-one RMM plans that were submitted by this mission, eighteen were matched with conjunctions in the historical record; of those, twelve were successfully remediated (final measured Pc < 3E-6), and six were not. This is consistent with the expected efficacy for missions orbiting at that altitude. We are presently simulating this mission’s RMMs with MTS; this work is ongoing, but so far, the MTS results are qualitatively in agreement with the empirical results -- correctly predicting that a maneuver would or would not remediate a conjunction, if not exactly matching the final post-remediation Pc value. We found that differential drag was most successful for satellites with perigees below 560 km, and which could adopt an average delta-BC of 2 or greater (that is, increasing their ballistic coefficient by a factor of 3). However, this is a difficult threshold for a mission to clear; very few spacecraft are capable of adopting a high-drag configuration for 72 hours continuously. Planet’s Dove spacecraft use differential drag to remediate conjunctions (Griffith, et al., 2021), and they have a maximum delta-BC factor of 9, but in practice (with mission and charging constraints) they achieve a time-averaged delta-BC that is closer to 2 (Foster, et al., 2017). A mission’s differential drag utility strongly depends on the operational constraints that has the capacity to limit the time-averaged delta-BC. A mission with a high maximum delta-BC of 5 or more can have an effective delta-BC of less than 1 due to operational constraints such as instrument and solar panel pointing, especially if this constraint results in holding an intermediate drag value for most of its orbit. CARA has developed tables that can be used as decision aids to advise missions-in-development about the best way to utilize their differential drag capabilities. For missions below 560 km with the operational flexibility to devote multiple days to holding a high-drag configuration (or a sufficiently high drag ratio to compensate for limitations on that time), they are -- more likely than not -- able to successfully remediate high-risk conjunctions. Conversely, missions that do not meet these exacting criteria -- most missions -- can instead be advised to use on-board propulsion systems to perform RMMs, or to turn their minimum-area face towards the approach vector, thereby reducing Pc at the moment of conjunction due to the decreased Hard-Body Radius (HBR), that is a strongly correlated variable in the Pc calculations. (NASA, 2023)

conjunction assessment↗
NASA NTRS1985

Ozone during sudden stratospheric warming: A three-dimensional simulation

Sudden warmings which are currently observed in the winter stratosphere are believed to be due to the upward propagation of planetary waves originating in the troposphere. Major warmings are characterized by local increases of the temperature in a deep layer beyond the stratopause, with values of the order of 50 K at 10 mbar appearing over a short period of time and leading to significant changes in the rate constant of several chemical reactions. During such events, the dynamical fields in the stratosphere are completely altered, so that dramatic changes in the transport of trace constituents are expected. Preliminary results of a 3-D model simulation of the ozone behavior during winter in connection with the appearance of stratospheric warmings are reported. The middle stratosphere (12 mbar or approximately 32 km) where the chemical lifetime of odd oxygen is quite long, and consequently, transport plays a major role is emphasized.

Rose, K.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Wind-driven angular momentum loss in binary systems. I - Ballistic case

We study numerically the average loss of specific angular momentum from binary systems due to mass outflow from one of the two stars for a variety of initial injection geometries and wind velocities. We present results of ballistic calculations in three dimensions for initial mass ratios q of the mass-losing star to primary star in the range q between 10 exp -5 and 10. We consider injection surfaces close to the Roche lobe equipotential surface of the mass-losing star, and also cases with the mass-losing star underfilling its Roche lobe. We obtain that the orbital period is expected to have a negative time derivative for wind-driven secular evolution of binaries with q greater than about 3 and with the mass-losing star near filling its Roche lobe. We also study the effect of the presence of an absorbing surface approximating an accretion disk on the average final value of the specific angular momentum loss. We find that the effect of an accretion disk is to increase the wind-driven angular momentum loss. Our results are relevant for evolutionary models of high-mass binaries and low-mass X-ray binaries.

Brookshaw, Leigh↗
NASA NTRS1993

An early solar dynamo prediction: Cycle 23 is approximately cycle 22

In this paper, we briefly review the 'dynamo' and 'geomagnetic precursor' methods of long-term solar activity forecasting. These methods depend upon the most basic aspect of dynamo theory to predict future activity, future magnetic field arises directly from the magnification of pre-existing magnetic field. We then generalize the dynamo technique, allowing the method to be used at any phase of the solar cycle, through the development of the 'Solar Dynamo Amplitude' (SODA) index. This index is sensitive to the magnetic flux trapped within the Sun's convection zone but insensitive to the phase of the solar cycle. Since magnetic fields inside the Sun can become buoyant, one may think of the acronym SODA as describing the amount of buoyant flux. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle's smoothed peak activity will be about 210 +/- 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a sunspot number of 170 +/- 25. This suggests that solar cycle #23 will be large, comparable to cycle #22. The estimated peak is expected to occur near 1999.7 +/- 1 year. Since the current approach is novel (using data prior to solar minimum), these estimates may improve when the upcoming solar minimum is reached.

Schatten, Kenneth H.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Multi-Scale Fractal Analysis of Image Texture and Pattern

Fractals embody important ideas of self-similarity, in which the spatial behavior or appearance of a system is largely scale-independent. Self-similarity is a property of curves or surfaces where each part is indistinguishable from the whole. The fractal dimension D of remote sensing data yields quantitative insight on the spatial complexity and information content contained within these data. Analyses of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) images of homogeneous land covers near Huntsville, Alabama revealed that the fractal dimension of an image of an agricultural land cover indicates greater complexity as pixel size increases, a forested land cover gradually grows smoother, and an urban image remains roughly self-similar over the range of pixel sizes analyzed(l0 to 80 meters). The forested scene behaves as one would expect-larger pixel sizes decrease the complexity of the image as individual clumps of trees are averaged into larger blocks. The increased complexity of the agricultural image with increasing pixel size results from the loss of homogeneous groups of pixels in the large fields to mixed pixels composed of varying combinations of NDVI values that correspond to roads and vegetation. The same process occur's in the urban image to some extent, but the lack of large, homogeneous areas in the high resolution NDVI image means the initially high D value is maintained as pixel size increases. The slope of the fractal dimension-resolution relationship provides indications of how image classification or feature identification will be affected by changes in sensor resolution.

Emerson, Charles W.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Vertical Transport Processes for Inert and Scavenged Species: TRACE-A Measurements

The TRACE-A mission of the NASA DC-8 aircraft made a large-scale survey of the tropical and subtropical atmosphere in September and October of 1992. Both In-situ measurements of CO (G. Sachsen NASA Langley) and aerosol size (J. Browell group, NASA Langley) provide excellent data sets with which to constrain vertical transport by planetary boundary layer mixing and deep-cloud cumulus convection. Lidar profiles of aerosol-induced scattering and ozone (also by Bremen) are somewhat require more subtle interpretation as tracers, but the vertical information on layering largely compensates for these complexities. The reason this DC-8 dataset is so useful is that very large areas of biomass burning over Africa and South America provide surface sources of appropriate sizes with which to characterize vertical and horizontal motions; the major limitation of our source description is that biomass burning patterns move considerably every few days, and daily burning inventories are a matter of concurrent, intensive research. We use the Penn State / NCAR MM5 model in an assimilation mode on the synoptic and intercontinental scale, and assess the success it shows in vertical transport descriptions. We find that the general level of emissions suggested by the climatological approach (Will. Has, U. of Montana) appears to be approximately correct, possibly a bit low, for this October, 1992, time period. Vertical transport in planetary boundary layer mixing to 5.5 kin was observed and reproduced in our simulations. Furthermore we find evidence that Blackader "transilient" or matrix-transport scheme is needed, but may require some adaptation in our tracer model: CO seems to exhibit very high values at the top of the planetary boundary layer, a process that stretches the eddy-diffusion parameterization. We will report on progress in improving the deep convective transport of carbon monoxide: the Grail scheme as we used it at 100 kin resolution did not transport enough material to the upper troposphere. We expect to be able to attribute this to either parameterization reasons (inadequacy of this parameterization at the large 100km scale) or other reasons. Nevertheless, the qualitative nature of deep transport by clouds shows up well in the simulations. As for scavengable species, the simulations predict tens of micrograms per standard cubic meter of smoke aerosol in the boundary layer. In a straightforward illustration of our simple bulk-mass scavenging parameterization, to one or two micrograms per standard cubic meter of smoke aerosol in the free troposphere just above the source regions: very high concentrations for the free troposphere. We expect to report on comparisons of these predictions to a variety of observations.

Chatfield, Robert B.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Temporal Decrease in Upper Atmospheric Chlorine

We report a steady decrease in the upper stratospheric and lower mesospheric abundances of hydrogen chloride (HCl) from August 2004 through January 2006, as measured by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) aboard the Aura satellite. For 60(deg)S to 60(deg)N zonal means, the average yearly change in the 0.7 to 0.1 hPa (approx.50 to 65 km) region is -27 +/- 3 pptv/year, or -0.78 +/- 0.08 percent/year. This is consistent with surface abundance decrease rates (about 6 to 7 years earlier) in chlorine source gases. The MLS data confirm that international agreements to reduce global emissions of ozone-depleting industrial gases are leading to global decreases in the total gaseous chlorine burden. Tracking stratospheric HCl variations on a seasonal basis is now possible with MLS data. Inferred stratospheric total chlorine (CITOT) has a value of 3.60 ppbv at the beginning of 2006, with a (2-sigma) accuracy estimate of 7%; the stratospheric chlorine loading has decreased by about 43 pptv in the 18-month period studied here. We discuss the MLS HCl measurements in the context of other satellite-based HCl data, as well as expectations from surface chlorine data. A mean age of air of approx. 5.5 years and an age spectrum width of 2 years or less provide a fairly good fit to the ensemble of measurements.

chlorine↗
NASA NTRS2009

Observation of Solar Wind Charge Exchange Emission From Exospheric Material in and Outside Earth's Magnetosheath 2008 September 25

A long XMM-Newton exposure is used to observe solar wind charge exchange (SWCX) emission from exospheric material in and outside Earth's magnetosheath. The light curve of the O vii (0.5-0.62 keV) band is compared with a model for the expected emission, and while the emission is faint and the light curve has considerable scatter, the correlation is significant to better than 99.9%. This result demonstrates the validity of the geocoronal SWCX emission model for predicting a contribution to astrophysical observations to a scale factor of order unity (1.5). In addition, an average value of the SWCX O vii emission from the magnetosheath over the observation of 2.6 +/- 0.5 LU is derived. The results also demonstrate the potential utility of using X-ray observations to study global phenomena of the magnetosheath which currently are only investigated using in situ measurements.

Snowden, S. L.↗