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Optimal processing of satellite-derived magnetic anomaly data

It is shown how the concept of the power spectrum can be extended to two-dimensional spatial power spectra and how it can be used in determining optimal data processing methods for satellite-derived magnetic anomaly data and planning missions to obtain such data. The analysis techniques are applied to the data set and data-processing procedure described by Mayhew et al. (1980), a study that treats magnetic anomaly data for Australia and the surrounding ocean obtained by the polar orbit POGO series satellites. It is shown that the data-processing method used by Mayhew et al. is approximately equivalent to an invariant two-dimensional linear filter and that it is reasonably close to optimal with respect to accuracy, although some possible improvements are suggested. However, as is usual when filtering data, some real 'signal' is unavoidably removed along with the 'noise' resulting in errors that can be quite large. A method for reducing these errors by using additional data from a medium inclination orbit satellite (for example, 60 deg inclination) is proposed.

Mcleod, M. G.↗

Describing patterns of familial cancer risk in subfertile men using population pedigree data

STUDY QUESTION Can we simultaneously assess risk for multiple cancers to identify familial multicancer patterns in families of azoospermic and severely oligozoospermic men? SUMMARY ANSWER Here, distinct familial cancer patterns were observed in the azoospermia and severe oligozoospermia cohorts, suggesting heterogeneity in familial cancer risk by both type of subfertility and within subfertility type. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Subfertile men and their relatives show increased risk for certain cancers including testicular, thyroid, and pediatric. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION A retrospective cohort of subfertile men (N = 786) was identified and matched to fertile population controls (N = 5674). Family members out to third-degree relatives were identified for both subfertile men and fertile population controls (N = 337 754). The study period was 1966–2017. Individuals were censored at death or loss to follow-up, loss to follow-up occurred if they left Utah during the study period. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS Azoospermic (0 × 10 6 /mL) and severely oligozoospermic (<1.5 × 10 6 /mL) men were identified in the Subfertility Health and Assisted Reproduction and the Environment cohort (SHARE). Subfertile men were age- and sex-matched 5:1 to fertile population controls and family members out to third-degree relatives were identified using the Utah Population Database (UPDB). Cancer diagnoses were identified through the Utah Cancer Registry. Families containing ≥10 members with ≥1 year of follow-up 1966–2017 were included (azoospermic: N = 426 families, 21 361 individuals; oligozoospermic: N = 360 families, 18 818 individuals). Unsupervised clustering based on standardized incidence ratios for 34 cancer phenotypes in the families was used to identify familial multicancer patterns; azoospermia and severe oligospermia families were assessed separately. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE Compared to control families, significant increases in cancer risks were observed in the azoospermia cohort for five cancer types: bone and joint cancers hazard ratio (HR) = 2.56 (95% CI = 1.48–4.42), soft tissue cancers HR = 1.56 (95% CI = 1.01–2.39), uterine cancers HR = 1.27 (95% CI = 1.03–1.56), Hodgkin lymphomas HR = 1.60 (95% CI = 1.07–2.39), and thyroid cancer HR = 1.54 (95% CI = 1.21–1.97). Among severe oligozoospermia families, increased risk was seen for three cancer types: colon cancer HR = 1.16 (95% CI = 1.01–1.32), bone and joint cancers HR = 2.43 (95% CI = 1.30–4.54), and testis cancer HR = 2.34 (95% CI = 1.60–3.42) along with a significant decrease in esophageal cancer risk HR = 0.39 (95% CI = 0.16–0.97). Thirteen clusters of familial multicancer patterns were identified in families of azoospermic men, 66% of families in the azoospermia cohort showed population-level cancer risks, however, the remaining 12 clusters showed elevated risk for 2-7 cancer types. Several of the clusters with elevated cancer risks also showed increased odds of cancer diagnoses at young ages with six clusters showing increased odds of adolescent and young adult (AYA) diagnosis [odds ratio (OR) = 1.96–2.88] and two clusters showing increased odds of pediatric cancer diagnosis (OR = 3.64–12.63). Within the severe oligozoospermia cohort, 12 distinct familial multicancer clusters were identified. All 12 clusters showed elevated risk for 1–3 cancer types. An increase in odds of cancer diagnoses at young ages was also seen in five of the severe oligozoospermia familial multicancer clusters, three clusters showed increased odds of AYA diagnosis (OR = 2.19–2.78) with an additional two clusters showing increased odds of a pediatric diagnosis (OR = 3.84–9.32). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION Although this study has many strengths, including population data for family structure, cancer diagnoses and subfertility, there are limitations. First, semen measures are not available for the sample of fertile men. Second, there is no information on medical comorbidities or lifestyle risk factors such as smoking status, BMI, or environmental exposures. Third, all of the subfertile men included in this study were seen at a fertility clinic for evaluation. These men were therefore a subset of the overall population experiencing fertility problems and likely represent those with the socioeconomic means for evaluation by a physician. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS This analysis leveraged unique population-level data resources, SHARE and the UPDB, to describe novel multicancer clusters among the families of azoospermic and severely oligozoospermic men. Distinct overall multicancer risk and familial multicancer patterns were observed in the azoospermia and severe oligozoospermia cohorts, suggesting heterogeneity in cancer risk by type of subfertility and within subfertility type. Describing families with similar cancer risk patterns provides a new avenue to increase homogeneity for focused gene discovery and environmental risk factor studies. Such discoveries will lead to more accurate risk predictions and improved counseling for patients and their families. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) This work was funded by GEMS: Genomic approach to connecting Elevated germline Mutation rates with male infertility and Somatic health (Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD): R01 HD106112). The authors have no conflicts of interest relevant to this work.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

EXPLAINABLE AND TRUSTWORTHY DIAGNOSTICS ACHIEVABLE THROUGH PROCESS-BASED AUTOMATED REASONING

An approach has been developed that incorporates domain knowledge to obtain a more explainable and trustworthy equipment health monitoring diagnosis than might otherwise be obtained from a purely data-driven method. Physics-based models serve to constrain the realizable solution space and render a more trusted diagnosis. An automated reasoning algorithm performs backward chaining to infer a diagnosis that is consistent with logic statements that have been evaluated as true. This diagnosis is made explainable to an operator by providing the forward chaining path that elucidates for inspection and validity testing those truths implied by the diagnosis.

automated reasoning↗

DCS - A global satellite environmental data collection system.

This paper presents a summary of the results of a comparative study of satellite data collection systems which utilize remote ground data collection platforms transmitting data directly to a satellite and down to low-cost direct read-out local user terminals. The general objective of the study was to evaluate cost and technical feasibility of five medium orbiting and six geo-synchronous satellite data collection system (DCS) configurations with varying degrees of spacecraft and local user terminal (LUT) complexity. The goal of trading spacecraft and LUT complexity was to determine practical feasible systems with low-cost terminals, yet with a reasonable overall system cost the would permit the broad worldwide utilization of a highly beneficial data collection system. Results presented include data collection system analyses, satellite and local user terminal designs, and estimated costs. A summary of the types of local users and their requirements is also included.

Claire, E. J.↗

Solar Flare Catalog for SPICE Instrument on the Solar Orbiter

Studying the solar corona, the outermost layer of solar atmosphere, is a pivotal part of understanding the dynamic relations between solar activity and the solar wind, which can disrupt the near-Earth environment. Solar flares emit electromagnetic radiation in the solar corona, capable of releasing large amounts of energy in a matter of minutes. Flares can also be associated with Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and affect Earth’s ionosphere. One instrument that can be used to study flares is the Spectral Imaging of the Coronal Environment (SPICE) instrumentaboard the Solar Orbiter (SolO). SPICE is a high-resolution extreme ultraviolet stigmatic slit spectrometer that covers emission lines formed from the solar chromosphere to corona. Since SPICE is a stigmatic slit spectrometer, the instrument can only take in data from a small spatial area on the Sun at a time. Due to the fast and unpredictable nature of flare events, it can be difficult to determine if and when SPICE has observed a flare. For this reason, we have created a catalog of flares observed by SPICE. This catalog of observational data was assembledby cross referencing data between different solar missions, including data from SolO’s E xtreme Ultraviolet Imager (EUI) and Spectrometer Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX), Solar Dynamics Observatory’s Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA) instrument, and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R). Supplemental analysis of the SPICE solar flare data includes Gaussian line fitting for flares of particular interest. The catalog can be utilized to locate and study coronal loop structures and flare ribbons. This SPICE solar flare catalog and additional supplemental analysis allows for the ease of identification of useful SPICE spectral data and multi-instrument analysis in order to study solar flare activity. It will be open for use by the Solar Orbiter and broader Heliophysics communities.

Anneliese L. Schmidt↗

Fast Simulators for Satellite Cloud Optical Centroid Pressure Retrievals, 1. Evaluation of OMI Cloud Retrievals

We have developed a relatively simple scheme for simulating retrieved cloud optical centroid pressures (OCP) from satellite solar backscatter observations. We have compared simulator results with those from more detailed retrieval simulators that more fully account for the complex radiative transfer in a cloudy atmosphere. We used this fast simulator to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of cloud OCPs from the two OMI algorithms using collocated data from CloudSat and Aqua MODIS, a unique situation afforded by the A-train formation of satellites. We find that both OMI algorithms perform reasonably well and that the two algorithms agree better with each other than either does with the collocated CloudSat data. This indicates that patchy snow/ice, cloud 3D, and aerosol effects not simulated with the CloudSat data are affecting both algorithms similarly. We note that the collocation with CloudSat occurs mainly on the East side of OMI's swath. Therefore, we are not able to address cross-track biases in OMI cloud OCP retrievals. Our fast simulator may also be used to simulate cloud OCP from output generated by general circulation models (GCM) with appropriate account of cloud overlap. We have implemented such a scheme and plan to compare OMI data with GCM output in the near future.

Joiner, J.↗

Evidence for a Low Bulk Crustal Density for Mars from Gravity and Topography

Knowledge of the average density of the crust of a planet is important in determining its interior structure. The combination of high-resolution gravity and topography data has yielded a low density for the Moon’s crust, yet for other terrestrial planets the resolution of the gravity field models has hampered reasonable estimates. By using well-chosen constraints derived from topography during gravity field model determination using satellite tracking data, we show that we can robustly and independently determine the average bulk crustal density directly from the tracking data, using the admittance between topography and imperfect gravity. We find a low average bulk crustal density for Mars, 2582 ± 209 kgm−3. This bulk crustal density is lower than that assumed until now. Densities for volcanic complexes are higher, consistent with earlier estimates, implying large lateral variations in crustal density. In addition, we find indications that the crustal density increases with depth.

Goossens, Sander J.↗

The Relation Between Atmospheric Humidity and Temperature Trends for Stratospheric Water

We analyze the relation between atmospheric temperature and water vapor-a fundamental component of the global climate system-for stratospheric water vapor (SWV). We compare measurements of SWV (and methane where available) over the period 1980-2011 from NOAA balloon-borne frostpoint hygrometer (NOAA-FPH), SAGE II, Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS)/Aura, and Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) to model predictions based on troposphere-to-stratosphere transport from ERA-Interim, and temperatures from ERA-Interim, Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis (MERRA), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Radiosonde Atmospheric Temperature Products for Assessing Climate (RATPAC), HadAT2, and RICHv1.5. All model predictions are dry biased. The interannual anomalies of the model predictions show periods of fairly regular oscillations, alternating with more quiescent periods and a few large-amplitude oscillations. They all agree well (correlation coefficients 0.9 and larger) with observations for higherfrequency variations (periods up to 2-3 years). Differences between SWV observations, and temperature data, respectively, render analysis of the model minus observation residual difficult. However, we find fairly well-defined periods of drifts in the residuals. For the 1980s, model predictions differ most, and only the calculation with ERA-Interim temperatures is roughly within observational uncertainties. All model predictions show a drying relative to HALOE in the 1990s, followed by a moistening in the early 2000s. Drifts to NOAA-FPH are similar (but stronger), whereas no drift is present against SAGE II. As a result, the model calculations have a less pronounced drop in SWV in 2000 than HALOE. From the mid-2000s onward, models and observations agree reasonably, and some differences can be traced to problems in the temperature data. These results indicate that both SWV and temperature data may still suffer from artifacts that need to be resolved in order to answer the question whether the large-scale flow and temperature field is sufficient to explain water entering the stratosphere.

Fueglistaler, S.↗

Evaluating model accuracy for model-based reasoning

Described here is an approach to automatically assessing the accuracy of various components of a model. In this approach, actual data from the operation of a target system is used to drive statistical measures to evaluate the prediction accuracy of various portions of the model. We describe how these statistical measures of model accuracy can be used in model-based reasoning for monitoring and design. We then describe the application of these techniques to the monitoring and design of the water recovery system of the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) of Space Station Freedom.

Chien, Steve↗

RF and Optical Communications: A Comparison of High Data Rate Returns From Deep Space in the 2020 Timeframe

As NASA proceeds with plans for increased science data return and higher data transfer capacity for science missions, both RF and optical communications are viable candidates for significantly higher-rate communications from deep space to Earth. With the inherent advantages, smaller apertures and larger bandwidths, of optical communications, it is reasonable to expect that at some point in time and combination of increasing distance and data rate, the rapidly emerging optical capabilities would become more advantageous than the more mature and evolving RF techniques. This paper presents a comparison of the burden to a spacecraft by both RF and optical communications systems for data rates of 10, 100, and 1000 Mbps and large distances. Advanced technology for RF and optical communication systems have been considered for projecting capabilities in the 2020 timeframe. For the comparisons drawn, the optical and RF ground terminals were selected to be similar in cost. The RF system selected is composed of forty-five 12-meter antennas, whereas the selected optical system is equivalent to a 10-meter optical telescope. Potential differences in availability are disregarded since the focus of this study is on spacecraft mass and power burden for high-rate mission data, under the assumption that essential communications will be provided by low-rate, high availability RF. For both the RF and optical systems, the required EIRP, for a given data rate and a given distance, was achieved by a design that realized the lowest possible communications subsystem mass (power + aperture) consistent with achieving the lowest technology risk. A key conclusion of this paper is that optical communications has great potential for high data rates and distances of 2.67 AU and beyond, but requires R&D and flight demonstrations to prove out technologies.

Williams, W. Dan↗

Incompressible boundary-layer stability analysis of LFC experimental data for sub-critical Mach numbers

An incompressible boundary-layer stability analysis of Laminar Flow Control (LFC) experimental data was completed and the results are presented. This analysis was undertaken for three reasons: to study laminar boundary-layer stability on a modern swept LFC airfoil; to calculate incompressible design limits of linear stability theory as applied to a modern airfoil at high subsonic speeds; and to verify the use of linear stability theory as a design tool. The experimental data were taken from the slotted LFC experiment recently completed in the NASA Langley 8-Foot Transonic Pressure Tunnel. Linear stability theory was applied and the results were compared with transition data to arrive at correlated n-factors. Results of the analysis showed that for the configuration and cases studied, Tollmien-Schlichting (TS) amplification was the dominating disturbance influencing transition. For these cases, incompressible linear stability theory correlated with an n-factor for TS waves of approximately 10 at transition. The n-factor method correlated rather consistently to this value despite a number of non-ideal conditions which indicates the method is useful as a design tool for advanced laminar flow airfoils.

Berry, S. A.↗

SRS Composite Analysis Monitoring Plan (FY2019 Model Validation)

Using a projected end-state date of 2065 (SRNS 2015b), the Savannah River Site (SRS) Composite Analysis (CA) modeling for each facility and waste site began on the inventory year assigned to it so that source depletion and radionuclide transport out of the system could be appropriately captured. Some SRS waste sites that have already achieved their end states (i.e. end-state inventories and end-state configuration) are currently contributing to the potential off-site public dose through source release, groundwater transport, discharge to on-site surface streams, and stream transport to the CA point of assessments (POAs). The inventory year assigned to these waste sites is 2002 or before. This means that SRS CA results from 2002 and beyond are a reasonable representation for these waste sites that have already achieved their end states and are currently contributing to the potential off-site public dose. The SRS Annual Environmental Report (AER) monitoring can differentiate and separate liquid pathway data allowing the data representing only waste sites at their end state to be produced. Because the SRS CA has projected reasonable end-state impacts from 2002 and beyond, and the AER monitoring can differentiate and separate operating and end-state contributions to annual liquid pathway release, an opportunity exists to use the AER monitoring data to validate the SRS CA model. The CA model validation program uses a graded and systematic approach for taking corrective action, starting with an SRS established administrative dose limit of 15 mrem/yr, below which no action is required. Based on the location of the 2010 SRS CA POAs, the only potential exposure pathway for the public is through surface water. The completion of the FY2019 CA model validation indicates that the SRS CA projected dose, while generally conservative, provides a reasonable representation of the maximum annual doses. These doses are well below the administrative limit; therefore, no additional action is required.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Possible methods for USSR-VLF navigation receivers

The U.S.S.R. has a VLF navigation system similar to OMEGA. Beukers has reported some information on the signal format, frequencies used, and the probable radiated power levels. From this data it appears possible to derive receiver operation modes and some implied reasons for the unique choice of the time-multiplexed frequency time base used. Of interest are receiver methods requiring processor gate complexity similar to a digital wristwatch including the use of mass-produced low frequency quartz crystal reference oscillators. The stability required of the local reference oscillator is probably much less critical than for other VLF receivers because of the signal format. One conclusion is that U.S.S.R.-VLF receivers might be fabricated at quite low cost making it possible for all persons in remote areas each to have his own private positioning aid. Further study of the actual transmitted signal format is warranted. While the nature of this memorandum is speculative because of the lack of confirming data, the receiver method proposed has evolved from related principles which have been applied to the operating OMEGA-VLF navigation system.

Burhans, R. W.↗

Understanding Aitken Mode Aerosol Variability over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica: Insights from Cloud Condensation Nuclei Data

Aitken mode aerosol particles play an important role influencing cloud properties and sustenance, acting as a reservoir of potential cloud condensation nuclei against precipitation scavenging. However, there is limited data on Aitken mode aerosols. In this study, we develop a method to estimate Aitken mode aerosol concentrations and size distribution using cloud condensation nuclei measurements (CCN) and κ-Köhler theory. The performance of this method is evaluated using scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS) data from recent field campaigns to demonstrate its skills and applicability. The method reasonably estimates Aitken- and accumulation-mode aerosol concentrations, achieving correlations of 0.7–0.9 with only modest biases (mean fractional bias within ±23% for Aitken mode and ±34% for accumulation-mode). This method is further applied to measurements collected over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica in recent years from multiple platforms, including ground sites, aircraft, and ships, to derive Aitken and accumulation-mode aerosol concentrations. Using the derived data, we examine the seasonal cycle, latitudinal variations, and vertical distribution of aerosols. Aitken mode aerosol concentrations are elevated over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica during the austral summer similar to the accumulation mode. In the austral summer, the free troposphere has more Aitken mode aerosols and fewer accumulation mode aerosols than the boundary layer, and thus likely serves as an important source of cloud-forming aerosol while also diluting the accumulation mode.

Kang, Litai [University of Washington] (ORCID:0000↗

Software for Data Analysis with Graphical Models

Probabilistic graphical models are being used widely in artificial intelligence and statistics, for instance, in diagnosis and expert systems, as a framework for representing and reasoning with probabilities and independencies. They come with corresponding algorithms for performing statistical inference. This offers a unifying framework for prototyping and/or generating data analysis algorithms from graphical specifications. This paper illustrates the framework with an example and then presents some basic techniques for the task: problem decomposition and the calculation of exact Bayes factors. Other tools already developed, such as automatic differentiation, Gibbs sampling, and use of the EM algorithm, make this a broad basis for the generation of data analysis software.

Buntine, Wray L.↗

A lightweight, user-configurable detector ASIC digital architecture with on-chip data compression for MHz X-ray coherent diffraction imaging

Today, most X-ray pixel detectors used at light sources transmit raw pixel data off the detector ASIC. With the availability of more advanced ASIC technology nodes for scientific application, more digital functionalities from the computing domains (e.g., compression) can be integrated directly into a detector ASIC to increase data velocity. In this paper, we describe a lightweight, user-configurable detector ASIC digital architecture with on-chip compression which can be implemented in 130 nm technologies in a reasonable area on the ASIC periphery. In addition, we present a design to efficiently handle the variable data from the stream of parallel compressors. The architecture includes user-selectable lossy and lossless compression blocks. The impact of lossy compression algorithms is evaluated on simulated and experimental X-ray ptychography datasets. This architecture is a practical approach to increase pixel detector frame rates towards the continuous 1 MHz regime for not only coherent imaging techniques such as ptychography, but also for other diffraction techniques at X-ray light sources.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Generation of long time creep data on refractory alloys at elevated temperatures

Creep tests were conducted on two tantalum alloys (ASTAR 811C and T-111 alloy), on a molybdenum alloy (TZM), and on CVD tungsten. The T-111 alloy 1% creep life data have been subjected to Manson's station function analysis, and the progress on this analysis is described. In another test program, the behavior of T-111 alloy with continuously varying temperatures and stresses has been studied. The results indicated that the previously described analysis predicts the observed creep behavior with reasonable accuracy. In addition to the T-111 test program, conventional 1% creep life data have been obtained for ASTAR 811C alloy. Previously observed effects of heat treatment on the creep strength of this material have been discussed and a model involving carbide strengthening primarily at the grain boundaries, rather than in a classical dispersion hardening mechanism, has been proposed to explain the observed results.

Sheffler, K. D.↗

Quantifying sensitivity in numerical weather prediction-modeled offshore wind speeds through an ensemble modeling approach

A decade of research has shown that numerical weather prediction (NWP)-modeled wind speeds can be highly sensitive to the inputs and setups within the NWP model. For wind resource characterization applications, this sensitivity is often addressed by constructing a range of setups and selecting the one that best validates against observations. However, this approach is not possible in areas that lack high-quality hub height observations, especially offshore wind areas. In such cases, techniques to quantify and disseminate confidence in NWP-modeled wind speeds in the absence of observations are needed. We address this need in the present study and propose best practices for quantifying the spread in NWP-modeled wind speeds. We implement an ensemble approach in which we consider 24 different setups to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We construct the ensemble by considering variations in WRF version, WRF namelist, atmospheric forcing, and sea surface temperature (SST) forcing. Our analysis finds that the standard deviation produces more consistent estimates compared to the interquartile range and tends to be the more conservative estimator for ensemble variability. We further find that model spread increases closer to the surface and on shorter time scales. In conclusion, we explore methods to attribute total ensemble variability to the different ensemble components (e.g., atmospheric forcing and SST product) and find that contributions by components also vary depending on time scale. We anticipate that the methods and results presented in this paper will provide a reasonable foundation for further research into ensemble-based wind resource data sets.

17 WIND ENERGY↗