Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “DEMAND”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,459 records · Page 81

The Ames Power Monitoring System

The Ames Power Monitoring System (APMS) is a centralized system of power meters, computer hardware, and specialpurpose software that collects and stores electrical power data by various facilities at Ames Research Center (ARC). This system is needed because of the large and varying nature of the overall ARC power demand, which has been observed to range from 20 to 200 MW. Large portions of peak demand can be attributed to only three wind tunnels (60, 180, and 100 MW, respectively). The APMS helps ARC avoid or minimize costly demand charges by enabling wind-tunnel operators, test engineers, and the power manager to monitor total demand for center in real time. These persons receive the information they need to manage and schedule energy-intensive research in advance and to adjust loads in real time to ensure that the overall maximum allowable demand is not exceeded. The APMS (see figure) includes a server computer running the Windows NT operating system and can, in principle, include an unlimited number of power meters and client computers. As configured at the time of reporting the information for this article, the APMS includes more than 40 power meters monitoring all the major research facilities, plus 15 Windows-based client personal computers that display real-time and historical data to users via graphical user interfaces (GUIs). The power meters and client computers communicate with the server using Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol (TCP/IP) on Ethernet networks, variously, through dedicated fiber-optic cables or through the pre-existing ARC local-area network (ARCLAN). The APMS has enabled ARC to achieve significant savings ($1.2 million in 2001) in the cost of power and electric energy by helping personnel to maintain total demand below monthly allowable levels, to manage the overall power factor to avoid low power factor penalties, and to use historical system data to identify opportunities for additional energy savings. The APMS also provides power engineers and electricians with the information they need to plan modifications in advance and perform day-to-day maintenance of the ARC electric-power distribution system.

Osetinsky, Leonid↗

Power Sources for Micro-Autonomous Vehicles- Challenges and Prospects

Micro-autonomous vehicle systems are expected to have expanded role in military missions by providing full spectrum intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance support on the battlefield, suppression of enemy defenses, and enabling co-operative (swarm-like) configurations. Of the numerous demanding requirements of autonomy, sensing, navigation, mobility, etc., meeting the requirement of mission duration or endurance is a very challenging one. This requirement is demanding because of the constraints of mass and volume that limit the quantity of energy that can be stored on-board. Energy is required for mobility, payload operation, information processing, and communication. Mobility requirements typically place an extraordinary demand on the specific energy (Wh/kg) and specific power (W/kg) of the power source; the actual distribution of the energy between mobility and other system functions could vary substantially with the mission type. The power requirements for continuous mobility can vary from 100-1000 W/kg depending on the terrain, ground speed and flight speed. Even with the power source accounting for 30% of the mass of the vehicle, the best of rechargeable batteries can provide only up to 1-2 hours of run-time for a continuous power demand at 100W/kg. In the case of micro-aerial vehicles with flight speed requirements in the range of 5-15 m s-1, the mission times rarely exceed 20 minutes [2]. Further, the power required during take-off and hover can be twice or thrice that needed for steady level flight, and thus the number and sequence of such events is also limited by the mass and size of the power source. For operations such as "perch and stare" or "silent watch" the power demand is often only a tenth of that required during continuous flight. Thus, variation in power demand during various phases of the mission importantly affects the power source selection.

fuel cells↗

Industrial Scale Energy Systems Integration; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

The industrial sector consumes 25% of the total energy in the U.S. and produces 18% of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Energy Systems Integration (ESI) opportunities can reduce those values and increase the profitability of that sector. This presentation outlines several options. Combined heat and power (CHP) is an option that is available today for many applications. In some cases, it can be extended to trigeneration by adding absorbtion cooling. Demand response is another option in use by the industrial sector - in 2012, industry provided 47% of demand response capacity. A longer term option that combines the benefits of CHP with those of demand response is hybrid energy systems (HESs). Two possible HESs are described and development implications discussed. extended to trigeneration by adding absorbtion cooling. Demand response is another option in use by the industrial sector - in 2012, industry provided 47% of demand response capacity. A longer term option that combines the benefits of CHP with those of demand response is hybrid energy systems (HESs). Two possible HESs are described and development implications discussed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Method for estimating power outages and restoration during natural and man-made events

A method of modeling electric supply and demand with a data processor in combination with a recordable medium, and for estimating spatial distribution of electric power outages and affected populations. A geographic area is divided into cells to form a matrix. Within the matrix, supply cells are identified as containing electric substations and demand cells are identified as including electricity customers. Demand cells of the matrix are associated with the supply cells as a function of the capacity of each of the supply cells and the proximity and/or electricity demand of each of the demand cells. The method includes estimating a power outage by applying disaster event prediction information to the matrix, and estimating power restoration using the supply and demand cell information of the matrix and standardized and historical restoration information.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The Essential Role of Nuclear Energy in Achieving Economy-wide Net-Zero Solutions

Governments and private industry around the world have established aggressive goals to achieve net-zero emissions for the power, industrial, and transportation sectors by 2050. These aggressive goals demand immediate action if we are to be successful, and they require us to think more holistically about our clean energy options. Programs within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) are addressing these holistic solutions. Traditionally, electricity generation and management and meeting energy demands for industry and transportation are considered independently. As we seek to achieve net-zero, we need to reassess energy demands. When we consider overall energy use, only one-third is in the form of electricity. Additional energy demands are in the form of heat or steam for industrial processes, as well as transportation. These sectors are much harder to abate, and electrification may not be the best option. Reducing environmental emissions at an affordable cost, while maintaining grid reliability and resilience, will require us to use all of the clean energy resources that we have available. That means coordinating the use of nuclear, renewables, and fossil fuels with carbon capture to meet growing demands for electricity, industrial applications, and mobility. The DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) program on Integrated Energy Systems (IES) is led by researchers at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and work is conducted in partnership with an array of other DOE laboratories, industry, and academia. The primary focus of IES research is to assess the technical and economic potential of IES to enhance the flexibility and utilization of nuclear reactors working alongside renewable generators to meet an array of energy demands—thereby maximizing the utilization of clean energy resources across all energy sectors. Various energy applications and product streams beyond electricity are being evaluated, ranging from generation of potable water to production of hydrogen, fertilizers, synthetic fuels, and chemicals. The DOE-NE program additionally partners with the Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office under the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to jointly fund the development of analysis tools, technologies, and nuclear-integrated hydrogen demonstration projects. This presentation highlights the wide array of R&D being conducted across multiple DOE-funded programs to develop and deploy nuclear-based IES that will be key to achieving our net-zero goals. By working with key collaborators in the nuclear industry, analytical studies are now becoming a reality in demonstration projects.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Providing Levelized Cost and Waiting Time Inputs for HDV Hydrogen Refueling Station Planning: A Case Study of U.S. I-75 Corridor

Widespread use of diesel fuels in freight transportation leads to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that play an important role in air pollution. The air pollution, as well as the energy crisis, drives the transition from diesel fuel to cleaner and more energy-efficient fuels such as hydrogen fuels. With such a transition, the strategic planning and optimization of supporting refueling infrastructure along the national highway for heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) become a necessity. Cost and service level are two essential factors to be considered in hydrogen refueling station location and capacity optimization. The service level in this study is assessed by the delay (waiting time) at fueling stations as well as the fueling demand fulfilled. To this end, this study presents a methodology to provide waiting time (delay) and levelized hydrogen fuel cost inputs under different station configurations (number of dispensers and fill rates) for hydrogen refueling station planning. Determining the station configurations based on the trade-off between the two inputs is further discussed. Particularly, this study points out that the levelized cost and waiting time are affected by hourly demand patterns and estimates the two inputs under different peak hour fueling demand scenarios. The results suggest that, with the same daily demand, the cost, as well as the waiting time, increases obviously with the peak hour demand. In the case study, the cost grows at least 30% when the peak hour visit frequency of the daily total visits increases from 5% (evenly distributed pattern) to 10% (the most common pattern for existing diesel fueling stations along I-75). Accounting for this peak hour effect in hydrogen refueling station planning is recommended. Overall, the waiting time model and cost analysis provide key inputs for optimizing hydrogen refueling station location and configurations based on anticipated refueling demand patterns. The paper is the second in a series that aims to build a comprehensive modeling plan and optimize hydrogen refueling infrastructure along the Interstate 75 (I-75) corridor for HDVs.

Liu, Yuandong↗

System and method for torque split arbitration

A method for torque split arbitration in a vehicle includes identifying at least one route characteristic of a portion of a route being traversed by the vehicle. The method further includes determining a target torque split based on the at least one route characteristics. The method further includes generating a first output torque demand that corresponds to a product of a first portion of a target torque demand to be provided by a first propulsion unit and a ratio of a total propulsion system torque demand and the target torque demand. The method further includes generating a second output torque demand based on the first output torque demand.

Aggoune, Karim↗

The Essential Role of Integrated Nuclear-Renewable Energy Systems in Achieving Economy-wide Net Zero Solutions

Background/Objectives. The Biden administration has committed to full decarbonization of the U.S. electricity grid by 2035 and economy-wide net zero emissions by 2050. These aggressive goals demand immediate action if we are to be successful, and they require us to think more holistically about our clean energy options. Focused laboratory initiatives, such as the INL Integrated Energy Systems (IES) Initiative, and multiple programs within the Department of Energy are working together to address these holistic solutions. Approach/Activities. Traditionally, electricity generation and management and meeting energy demands for industry and transportation are considered independently. As we seek to achieve net zero, we need to reassess our energy demands. When we consider overall energy use, only one-third is in the form of electricity. Additional energy demands are in the form of heat or steam for industrial processes, as well as transportation. Emissions across these sectors are much harder to abate, and electrification may not be the best option. Reducing environmental emissions at an affordable cost, while maintaining grid reliability and resilience, will require us to use all of the clean energy resources that we have available. That means coordinating the use of nuclear, renewables, and fossil fuels with carbon capture to meet growing demands for electricity, industrial applications, and mobility. The primary focus of IES research is to assess the technical and economic potential of various IES solutions to enhance the flexibility and utilization of nuclear energy generators working alongside renewable generators to meet an array of energy demands—thereby maximizing the utilization of clean energy resources across all energy sectors. Various energy applications and product streams beyond electricity are being evaluated, ranging from generation of potable water to production of hydrogen, fertilizers, synthetic fuels, and various chemicals. Results/Lessons Learned. This presentation will highlight the wide array of RD&D being conducted to develop and deploy nuclear-based IES that will be key to achieving our net zero goals. By working with key collaborators in the nuclear industry, analytical studies are now becoming a reality in multiple demonstration projects.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Advancing Nuclear Energy to Support Economy-wide Net-zero Solutions: Challenges and Opportunities

Governments and private industry around the world have established aggressive goals to achieve net-zero emissions for the power, industrial, and transportation sectors by 2050. These aggressive goals demand immediate action if we are to be successful, and they require us to think more holistically about our clean energy options. Programs within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) are addressing these holistic solutions. Traditionally, electricity generation and management and meeting energy demands for industry and transportation are considered independently. As we seek to achieve net-zero, we need to reassess energy demands. When we consider overall energy use, only one-third is in the form of electricity. Additional energy demands are in the form of heat or steam for industrial processes, as well as transportation. These sectors are much harder to abate, and electrification may not be the best option. Reducing environmental emissions at an affordable cost, while maintaining grid reliability and resilience, will require us to use all of the clean energy resources that we have available. That means coordinating the use of nuclear, renewables, and fossil fuels with carbon capture to meet growing demands for electricity, industrial applications, and mobility. The DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) program on Integrated Energy Systems (IES) is led by researchers at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and work is conducted in partnership with an array of other DOE laboratories, industry, and academia. The primary focus of IES research is to assess the technical and economic potential of IES to enhance the flexibility and utilization of nuclear reactors working alongside renewable generators to meet an array of energy demands—thereby maximizing the utilization of clean energy resources across all energy sectors. Various energy applications and product streams beyond electricity are being evaluated, ranging from generation of potable water to production of hydrogen, fertilizers, synthetic fuels, and chemicals. The DOE-NE program additionally partners with the Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office under the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to jointly fund the development of analysis tools, technologies, and nuclear-integrated hydrogen demonstration projects. This presentation highlights the wide array of R&D being conducted across multiple DOE-funded programs to develop and deploy nuclear-based IES that will be key to achieving our net-zero goals. By working with key collaborators in the nuclear industry, analytical studies are now becoming a reality in demonstration projects. The presentation specifically focuses on motivations for the paradigm shift in how nuclear energy is deployed and used, opportunities for nuclear energy to support an array of non-electric application, integration options, computational tools and experimental systems to support evaluation and to accelerate deployment, and industry partnerships.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Peak load reduction and load shaping in HVAC and refrigeration systems in commercial buildings by using a novel lightweight dynamic priority-based control strategy

Reducing peak power demand in a building can reduce electricity expenses for the building owner and contribute to the efficiency and reliability of the electrical power grid. For the building owner, reduced expenses come from the reduction or elimination of peak power charges on electricity bills. For the power system operator, reducing peak power demand leads to a more predictable load profile and reduces stress on the electric grid system. Herein we present a computationally inexpensive, dynamic, and retrofit-deployable control strategy to effect peak load reduction and load shaping. The effectiveness of the control strategy is examined in a simulation with 80 air-conditioning units and 40 refrigeration units. The results show that a peak demand reduction of 60 kW can be achieved relative to peak demand in a typical set point–based approach. The proposed strategy was deployed in a gymnasium building with four rooftop HVAC units, where it showed over 15% peak demand (kW) reduction savings while maintaining or lowering energy consumption (in kilowatt-hours) relative to the set point–based thermostat controls.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Peak Power Minimization for Commercial Thermostatically Controlled Loads in Multi-Unit Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings

The load profiles of most commercial and industrial consumers are characterized by brief periods of very high power consumption followed by intervals of lower demand. To encourage such consumers to flatten their load profiles, power utilities in and around the world often levy a monthly demand charge (DC) on the peak demand measured over brief intervals. In this work, we consider the joint optimization of energy costs (EC) and the instantaneous peak power of a multi-unit building which uses a hydronic heating, ventilation and cooling (HVAC) system and responds to a demand response (DR) program. Despite the non-linear structure of the problem, we show how optimal solutions can be obtained efficiently using linear programming. Next, we study the power demand patterns resulting from our proposed strategy for thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs), and evaluate the strategy’s performance for various climate zones in the US, under both typical and atypical weather conditions. Finally, the results show that depending on the ambient conditions and the tariff structure, our strategy can result in utility bill savings of up to nearly 19% compared to the baseline. The results also indicate that our power control strategy can significantly reduce the instantaneous peak power consumption in commercial TCLs.

HVAC↗

Shift in seasonal climate patterns likely to impact residential energy consumption in the United States

Abstract We develop a highly-resolved ensemble of climate simulations and empirical relationships between weather and household energy consumption to provide one of the most detailed estimates to date for potential climate-driven changes in the United States residential energy demand under the highest greenhouse gas emissions pathway. Our results indicate that more intense and prolonged warm conditions will drive an increase in electricity demand while a shorter and milder cold season will reduce natural gas demand by the mid 21st century. The environmental conditions that favor more cooling degree days in summer and reduced heating degree days in winter are driven by changes in daily maximum temperatures and daily minimum temperatures in the respective seasons. Our results also indicate that climate-driven change can potentially reverse impacts of a projected decrease in rural population on residential energy demand. These projected changes in climate-driven energy demand have implications for future energy planning and management.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Circular economy priorities for photovoltaics in the energy transition

Among the many ambitious decarbonization goals globally, the US intends grid decarbonization by 2035, requiring 1 TW of installed photovoltaics (PV), up from ~110 GW in 2021. This unprecedented global scale-up will stress existing PV supply chains with increased material and energy demands. By 2050, 1.75 TW of PV in the US cumulatively demands 97 million metric tonnes of virgin material and creates 8 million metric tonnes of life cycle waste. This analysis leverages the PV in Circular Economy tool (PV ICE) to evaluate two circular economy approaches, lifetime extension and closed-loop recycling, on their ability to reduce virgin material demands and life cycle wastes while meeting capacity goals. Modules with 50-year lifetimes can reduce virgin material demand by 3% through reduced deployment. Modules with 15-year lifetimes require an additional 1.2 TW of replacement modules to maintain capacity, increasing virgin material demand and waste unless >90% of module mass is closed-loop recycled. Currently, no PV technology is more than 90% closed-loop recycled. Glass, the majority of mass in all PV technologies and an energy intensive component with a problematic supply chain, should be targeted for a circular redesign. Our work contributes data-backed insights prioritizing circular PV strategies for a sustainable energy transition.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Management of Risk and Uncertainty Through Optimized Co-Operation of Transmission Systems and Microgrids With Responsive Loads (Final Report)

The evolution of the power system to the reliable, efficient and sustainable system of the future will involve development of both demand- and supply-side technology and operations. Ambitious national and state-level goals around the decarbonization of electricity relies on the integration of very high levels of renewable resources, most of which are variable and intermittent. The use of demand response is an ideal approach to counterbalance the intermittency of renewable generation and brings the consumer into the spotlight. Though individual consumers are interconnected at the low-voltage distribution system, these resources are typically modeled as variables at the transmission network level. Demand-side participation cannot be leveraged effectively without explicitly including the distribution system dynamics in the optimization-based wholesale market operations. This project grew from a vision for co-optimized interaction of distribution systems, or microgrids, with the high-voltage transmission system. In this framework, microgrids encompass consumers, distributed renewables and storage. The energy management system of the lower voltage system (distribution or microgrid) can also sell (buy) excess (necessary) energy from the transmission system. Until recently, very little research had been conducted on the co-optimization of these two systems due to computational limitations. However, advances in computational capabilities, and the judicious use of decomposition methods and innovative approximation methods for high-dimension dynamic programming made this goal a viable objective for this project, leading to a fundamental shift in the ability to integrate and fully utilize demand-side resources. To this end, the modeling framework developed introduces a novel co-optimization framework, to include the operations of both the transmission and distribution systems (or microgrids) in operational decision making. This framework was used to analyze renewable and distributed generation along with responsive demand and to compare the capability of co-optimized systems to perform with higher levels of variable renewables. An ideal microgrid is defined as an electric entity capable of operating in both interconnected (with the high-voltage grid) and islanded mode. As such, the microgrid should incorporate generating units (traditional units and intermittent) and if needed, exchange power with the high-voltage grid. The interplay between the microgrid and high-voltage grid motivated the development of the co-optimization approach to ensure efficient performance of the interconnected network. Results show that the use of a bi-level optimization approach is an appropriate structure, capable of co-optimizing a transmission system with multiple distribution systems and microgrids. While increasing the number of connected systems provides increasing flexibility for renewables integration this can also the economic benefits to the low-voltage subsystems with each additional system connected. Comparison of a traditional single-level decision structure with the co-optimization approach illustrates a reduction in overall system cost under co-optimization, while specific cost allocations to transmission and distribution systems are changed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Integrated Transportation-Energy Systems Modeling

Transportation is currently the least-diversified energy demand sector, with over 90% of global transportation energy use coming from petroleum product. After over a century of petroleum dominance, however, many leading experts anticipate major electrification trends that could disrupt the transportation energy demand landscape. These changes in electricity demand complement profound changes happening within electric power supply systems, including integration of variable renewables, distributed generation and storage, and greater participation in power system planning and operations from traditionally passive consumers. This broader context underscores the importance of understanding how transportation electrification will impact electricity demand, including changes in the load shapes that characterize the system and the opportunity to leverage flexible EV charging to more cost-effectively balance demand and supply. This talk provides an overview of recent findings on infrastructure requirements to support EV adoption, integration challenges and the impact of EV on power systems, and opportunities to leverage flexible (or smart) EV charging to support power system planning and operations.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

A Fully Passive Daily Load-follow Operation in a Small PWR System

An innovative fully passive load-follow operation (PLFO) concept, based only on the negative reactivity feedbacks, is proposed by the authors. The new design concept requires no control rod adjustment or boron utilization for achieving load-follow operation in pressurized water reactors (PWRs). PLFO is motivated by the need for developing next-generation PWRs with enhanced power maneuvering capabilities, increased level of autonomism, and less dependence on active controllers. Enhanced power maneuvering capabilities are required to allow next-generation PWRs to actively contribute to electrical grid stability. Meanwhile, increased level of autonomism and less dependence on active controllers are required for safety and reliability of next-generation PWRs. However, developing an autonomous thermal reactor is challenging due to its strong thermal and xenon (Xe) reactivity feedback. Therefore, enhancing power maneuvering capabilities and simultaneously increasing the level of autonomy with less dependence on active controllers is very challenging in PWRs. However, PLFO is a promising solution. For the feasibility of PLFO, the coolant temperature coefficient (CTC) should be always clearly negative and this requires a soluble boron-free (SBF) coolant system. An SBF coolant system is also favorable in terms of reactor safety. Nevertheless, utilizing soluble boron in load-following operation is not favorable, as the change in boron concentration is a quite slow process. The power demand can be either regular (repeated pattern in a daily-basis) or irregular (varying demand). The feasibility of PLFO for regular demand was demonstrated by the authors in other works. This paper is dedicated for summarizing the feasibility of PLFO for irregular demand, and to point out the impact of Xe reactivity on PLFO for a varying power demand.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Data-driven key performance indicators and datasets for building energy flexibility: A review and perspectives

Energy flexibility, through short-term demand-side management (DSM) and energy storage technologies, is now seen as a major key to balancing the fluctuating supply in different energy grids with the energy demand of buildings. This is especially important when considering the intermittent nature of ever-growing renewable energy production, as well as the increasing dynamics of electricity demand in buildings. This paper provides a holistic review of (1) data-driven energy flexibility key performance indicators (KPIs) for buildings in the operational phase and (2) open datasets that can be used for testing energy flexibility KPIs. The review identifies a total of 48 data-driven energy flexibility KPIs from 87 recent and relevant publications. These KPIs were categorized and analyzed according to their type, complexity, scope, key stakeholders, data requirement, baseline requirement, resolution, and popularity. Moreover, 330 building datasets were collected and evaluated. Of those, 16 were deemed adequate to feature building performing demand response or building-to-grid (B2G) services. The DSM strategy, building scope, grid type, control strategy, needed data features, and usability of these selected 16 datasets were analyzed. This review reveals future opportunities to address limitations in the existing literature: (1) developing new data-driven methodologies to specifically evaluate different energy flexibility strategies and B2G services of existing buildings; (2) developing baseline-free KPIs that could be calculated from easily accessible building sensors and meter data; (3) devoting non-engineering efforts to promote building energy flexibility, standardizing data-driven energy flexibility quantification and verification processes; and (4) curating and analyzing datasets with proper description for energy flexibility assessm.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene: Impacts of Local Water Extraction and Reservoir Regulation in the U.S.

Hydrological drought is a substantial negative deviation from normal hydrologic conditions and is influenced by climate and human activities such as water management. By perturbing the streamflow regime, climate change and water management may significantly alter drought characteristics in the future. Here we utilize a high-resolution integrated modeling framework that represents water management in terms of both local surface water extraction and reservoir regulation, and use the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) to quantify hydrological drought. We explore the impacts of water management on hydrological drought over the contiguous US in a warming climate with and without emissions mitigation. Despite the uncertainty of climate change impacts, local surface water extraction consistently intensifies drought that dominates at the regional to national scale. However, reservoir regulation alleviates drought by enhancing summer flow downstream of reservoirs. The relative dominance of drought intensification or relief is largely determined by the water demand, with drought intensification dominating in regions with intense water demand such as the Great Plains and California, while drought relief dominates in regions with low water demand. Here, at the national level, water management increases the spatial extent of extreme drought despite some alleviations of moderate to severe drought. In an emissions mitigation scenario with increased irrigation demand for bioenergy production, water management intensifies drought more than the business-as-usual scenario at the national level, so the impacts of emissions mitigation must be evaluated by considering its benefit in reducing warming and evapotranspiration against its effects on increasing water demand and intensifying drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗