Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Comprehension”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,459 records · Page 81
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Energy-saving potential evaluation for primary schools with occupant-centric controls

Recent studies demonstrated that there is significant energy-saving potential for primary schools, which heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems with occupant-centric control (OCC) is an excellent candidate to save energy. However, such an energy impact has yet to be evaluated for different climate zones as well as different energy code versions, but is critical for technology transfer and deployment. Therefore, this paper conducts comprehensive evaluation on the energy-saving potentials for the primary schools with two advanced OCC strategies: presence-based and counting-based. In this work, ninety-six building energy models with stochastic behavior of occupants are developed and simulated, which consist of two building energy code versions, 16 climate zones, and baseline case (without OCC) and two advanced cases (with OCC). To evaluate the energy saving potentials for OCC, primary schools in the U.S. are used as an example. The results show that there is significant energy-saving potential for primary schools by considering OCC strategies, especially the counting-based case. The energy-saving potential is up to 10.2% for presence-based OCC and 12.41% for counting-based OCC. Furthermore, both climate and code version have a significant impact on energy savings from OCC strategies. The energy-saving potentials vary from 1.79% to 12.41% for different climates and code versions. This evaluation can also contribute to quantify the nationwide energy saving potential for other countries.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Overall chilled water system energy consumption modeling and optimization

The emergence of increasingly affordable variable-speed drive technology has changed the approach used to control chilled water systems equipped with these drives. The purpose of this research was to develop an integrated chilled water modeling technique that can determine the optimal system setpoints and estimate the energy saving potential of chiller system. The chiller system equipped with Variable Frequency Drives (VFDs) on cooling tower fans and condenser water pumps. To accomplish the objective, physical component models of the centrifugal chiller, cooling tower and condenser water pump were established with the goal of incorporating the system’s condenser water flow rate and cooling tower fan speeds as optimization variables. Furthermore, a cooling load prediction algorithm was developed using a multiple non-linear regression model to approximate the building’s cooling load subject to a range of environmental conditions. The inputs and outputs of the individual component models were linked to estimate how adjusting the cooling tower fan and condenser water pump speed would influence the system’s comprehensive performance. Here, the overall system model was then optimized using a generalized reduced gradient optimization algorithm to determine the potential energy savings through speed control with VFDs and to ascertain a control logic strategy for the building automation system to operate the heating and cooling system. A case-study was performed on a single chiller system at a museum and the model was calibrated according to logged data collected over four months. Results showed that for the system analyzed, the energy saving of optimizing the cooling tower fan system was found to be 12–15%, while the energy saving potential of optimizing the condenser water pump with the cooling tower fan was negligible. Additionally, comparing different cooling tower fan control strategies showed that a wet-bulb approach-based cooling tower control strategy was shown to have the highest correlation to the optimized fan speed with an R 2 of 0.924.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Parametric study of solid-solid translucent phase change materials in building windows

Thermal energy storage and solar radiation management are crucial to improve the sustainability and energy efficiency of buildings. Compared with the implementation of phase change materials (PCMs) in opaque components, the energy saving potential of incorporating PCMs in transparent glazing windows is much less studied and not well understood. Here we present a comprehensive parametric study of novel PCM windows for building energy saving with a focus on optimizing and quantitatively distinguishing the contributions from the optical and thermal properties of the PCM, which is particularly useful for the design of solid-solid PCM windows. We investigate a reference commercial office building using EnergyPlus by developing an equivalent model of our PCM window that is compatible with EnergyPlus's modeling capabilities. Compared with a clear-clear double-pane window, the integration of 3 mm solid-solid PCMs with optimal properties in warm, mixed, and cold climates can respectively save up to 17.2%, 14.0%, and 5.8% energy for the HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning) system, and 9.4%, 6.7%, and 3.2% energy for the whole building. We also demonstrate that these energy savings are most sensitive to the solar absorptance of PCMs for all three climates. The optimal transition temperature varies with climate and is related to the climate and solar radiation heat gain. Other issues are also briefly discussed, such as hysteresis, window orientations, and the effect of interior lighting. Finally, although the optimal PCM windows show energy saving performance comparable with low-emissivity windows, the PCM windows provide a unique advantage in terms of shifting HVAC loads which can provide benefits to the electrical grid.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic Linking of Upstream Energy and Freight Demands for Bio and Fossil Energy Pathways in the Global Change Analysis Model

Comprehensive study of the environmental impacts associated with demand for an energy resource or carrier in any one sector requires a full consideration of the direct and indirect impacts on the rest of the regional and global energy system. It is important to consider the energy that is consumed in producing primary energy resources and energy consumed in transporting these energy resources internationally and domestically in order to produce a complete picture of these impacts. Biofuels are especially complex since they have feedbacks not just to the energy system but also to regional and global crop markets. Different modeling and analysis strategies have been applied to consider these impacts, which occur “upstream” of final energy consumption, with some success. Traditional life cycle models allow for rich technological detail in linking upstream impacts of energy demand with downstream final consumption; however, they cannot by themselves represent dynamic economic feedbacks across multiple sectors and regions over time. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling does account for economic feedback among all sectors and regions; however, CGE modeling does not lend itself to physical representation of technological detail. Partial equilibrium (PE) modeling is a heterogeneous category describing economic models that focus on a subset of the economy, and they differ in coverage and ease in incorporating more sectors and economic links. In this study, we present a strategy for dynamically including the direct and indirect impacts of energy demand with physical and technology detail by explicitly adding these upstream energy and transportation links to GCAM, a PE model of global energy, land use, and emissions. We incorporate the following inter-sectoral linkages: energy inputs to crop production, energy inputs to fossil resource production, and freight transport requirements of energy and agricultural commodities. We assess the implications of explicitly including these links by measuring the global impacts of increased corn ethanol demand in the United States with and without these links included. Although the net global impact of the upstream links on energy and emissions are relatively modest in the scenarios we studied, the inclusion of these links illustrates interesting trade-offs in energy and transportation demand among fossil fuel and agriculture sectors. These sectoral interactions suggest that this level of modeling detail could be important in evaluating future analytical questions.

Sampedro Martinez de Estivariz, Jon↗
DOE OSTI2022

Utilizing commercial heating, ventilating, and air conditioning systems to provide grid services: A review

The modern power grid faces multiple challenges due to an increase in the adoption of renewable generation, such as dynamically balancing supply and demand at different time scales. Demand side management in buildings plays a vital role in achieving this balance because buildings can provide grid services through a variety of building assets. However, the development of grid-interactive, efficient buildings is still in its infancy, and a systematic and holistic understanding of grid service delivery strategies in terms of energy efficiency, load shifting, load shedding and load modulating is still limited. This paper is a comprehensive review of the development and application of building-level control strategies for utilizing heating, ventilating, and air conditioning systems to provide grid services. These strategies have been investigated through numerical and experimental studies. Control algorithms, such as heuristic rule-based control and model-based control, have been used to enable the automatic control delivery of grid services. The advantages and disadvantages of the strategies are summarized and discussed. Finally, research trends are also identified, which include considering predicted mean vote-based and occupant-based thermal comfort, modeling of occupant behavior, integrating power grid operations with building control, and combining different demand flexibility modes in the control design.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Co-optimization of repairs and dynamic network reconfiguration for improved distribution system resilience

In this work, a post-disaster distribution system repair and restoration (DSRR) strategy is proposed to improve distribution system resilience. The DSRR strategy is formulated as a two-stage optimization. The first stage is a comprehensive co-optimization of repair crew scheduling, dynamic network reconfiguration, and distributed energy resource (DER) dispatch based on the forecast load profile. The goal is to minimize the accumulative operating cost caused by the load reduction payment as well as DER operating cost. In particular, since the number of available repair crews is usually smaller than the number of faulted lines after a disaster event, the DSRR strategy determines the optimal scheduling for repairing faulted lines. The second stage is a re-dispatch of the DER power output and load shedding based on the real-time load demand of each bus. The proposed algorithm is validated by case studies of the IEEE 33-bus and 123-bus test systems. We consider those scenarios in which faults occur in multiple heavy-loaded feeders. The simulation results demonstrate that the DSRR strategy effectively coordinate the repair scheduling, network reconfiguration and load shedding to minimize the operating cost.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of machine learning to evaluating and remediating models for energy and environmental engineering

Machine learning (ML) algorithms have been increasingly successful in their applications to solve energy and environmental engineering problems. ML algorithms have the advantage of being able to solve highly nonlinear issues effectively. Furthermore, considering the limited sample size of data collected in energy and environmental engineering, obtaining a ML model with reasonable accuracy is simple. Unfortunately, the vast majority of the current applications of ML algorithms lack effective screening of dominant factors and comprehensive model validation, which weakens the predictive ability of the models. The present study takes the minimum miscible pressure (MMP) of CO 2 - oil systems as an example. It establishes a systematic and robust predictive model to address this issue. Based on 147 sets of slim tube tests, the predictive models of the MMPs are investigated by application of eight ML algorithms. The paper concludes that most of the published ML models in the field of energy and environmental engineering prediction are not reliable. Furthermore, it addresses the main reasons for the poor performance of some predictive models built by ML and provides guidelines on how to make such models robust. Further, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to point out the defects of current ML modeling methods and propose countermeasures for their application in energy and environmental engineering problems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The importance of maldistribution matching for thermal performance of compact heat exchangers

Compact heat exchangers have gained increased attention in recent years, particularly in demanding applications where high temperatures, high pressures, and/or high power densities are required. For decades, the heat exchanger (HX) community believes that flow maldistribution is a key factor for HX effectiveness, that is, reducing the degree of flow maldistribution (MALD) can help increase the HX effectiveness. Therefore, significant efforts have been devoted in the past to optimizing the header geometry to minimize flow maldistribution. This work was initially motivated by this, and the original goal was to figure out a HX header design with the lowest maldistribution. However, by systematically constructing a comprehensive maldistribution matrix, the analysis revealed that the HX effectiveness is not actually determined by the MALD, but instead dominated by the degree of maldistribution mismatch (MISM). This conclusion was also theoretically generalized, which indicated that matching of the local heat capacity rate is key for achieving maximum performance. The MISM provides a local means of tracking this information, while the MALD only provides a global approximation of the maldistribution itself. With this new perspective, flow maldistribution needs not necessarily be avoided, but instead matched between two fluid streams, to improve the HX performance. We demonstrated that by carefully designing the header geometry to match the velocity profiles of the two fluids in a 2 MW PCHE with molten salt and supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) as the heat transfer fluids, the HX could achieve a higher effectiveness even when the maldistribution increased. Finally, a technoeconomic study using a CSP system as an example revealed that the use of this new HX design paradigm could result in CSP capital cost savings as large as 16.6%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigating capacity credit sensitivity to reliability metrics and computational methodologies

Assigning capacity value to renewable energy sources (RES) is a challenge faced in planning their integration with the grid. The difficulties stem from the natural characteristics of variability and intermittency of wind and solar sources. The capacity credit (CC) analysis evaluates the system’s actual power output compared with a constant capacity generator, i.e., conventional generator and determines an effective capacity to use for planning and operation. Herein this paper presents different factors that could affect the CC of a system. Two methods are proposed to determine the CC, namely equivalent firm capacity (EFC) and effective load carrying capability (ELCC). Since these methods are based on satisfying reliability criteria, daily loss of load expectation (LOLE), hourly loss of load (LOLH), and expected energy not served (EENS) have been employed as indices. To obtain the CC value, both methods apply two techniques: traditional and optimization. Genetic algorithm (GA) is the optimization approach used in this paper. Then, this work compares the two techniques and shows the superior performance of the optimization approach. Two hybrid systems, stand-alone (SA) and grid-connected (GC) modes, are proposed and used as case studies. The hybrid systems consist of photovoltaic (PV), wind turbine (WT), and battery energy storage system (BESS). In this work, three different scenarios are used to compare capacity credit: system as a whole, only wind, and no batteries. Finally, sensitivity analysis is carried out to examine the impact of varying the wind speed, solar irradiation, and load. It is demonstrated that the choice of reliability index plays an important role in determining the capacity credit and it is shown that EENS is a more comprehensive and consistent index of reliability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimal management of electric hotel loads in mild hybrid heavy duty truck

Here, the problem of engine idling for heavy-duty trucks has been under study for decades with Auxiliary Power Units (APUs) and Truck Stop Electrification (TSE) as the most compelling solutions. With the electrification of trucks approaching feasibility in terms of cost-effective technology, hybridization offers another “degree of freedom” to tackle the problem. Here, this work aims at exploiting a battery pack of a 48 V mild-hybrid heavy-duty truck to store sufficient onboard energy for powering the auxiliary loads during the hoteling. This problem is not trivial, as the battery packs typically cannot recover the entire energy required through regeneration alone; hence an optimal energy management strategy needs to be employed to charge the battery through the engine during drive operation. This strategy optimizes powertrain performances among the four modes: (i) Engine of Coasting (EOC), (ii) Regeneration by braking, (iii) Regeneration by engine, and (iv) engine idling. This paper presents the development of a Dynamic Programming (DP) framework that employs a multi-objective cost function to minimize the fuel consumption and maximize the regeneration using the above-mentioned four modes. A typical heavy-duty truck drive cycle is used to represent the drive phase, with mandatory hoteling stops as per regulations. A comprehensive powertrain model is developed using validated components’ model. The DP employs two state variables: battery State-of-Charge (SOC) and engine mode, and three control inputs: (i) the engine ON–OFF state, (ii) clutch engagement state, and (iii) power request at the Electric Machine (EM) for calculating optimal SOC trajectory. The framework also tackles rapid engine ON–OFF scenarios to avoid the challenges associated with DP and the compromises in fuel cost with those approaches. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed framework is tested for potential fuel savings on two different battery packs by performing the full cycle simulations. The results show 6.47% of fuel consumption reduction as compared to traditional APU-based heavy-duty truck.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Beyond Energy Efficiency: A clustering approach to embed demand flexibility into building energy benchmarking

The intermittency of carbon-free renewables and the demand changes associated with the widespread push for electrifying the transportation and building sectors provides an opportunity for buildings to go beyond energy efficiency and push towards providing demand flexibility to the electricity grid. The duality of energy efficiency and demand flexibility is necessary for success in a sustainable and reliable energy transition. Current building energy benchmarking models are limited in their ability to integrate concepts of demand flexibility and/or utilize granular smart meter data. Thus, current benchmarking methods are focused annual energy usage and fail to incorporate how the time of use of energy consumption impacts emissions in a quickly changing energy grid. Without a more comprehensive view of energy usage and associated real-time emissions, current benchmarking methods are unlikely to realize the full decarbonization potential of buildings. New emerging data streams provide an opportunity to develop a new generation of benchmarking energy models that embed dimensions of energy efficiency, grid interactivity, and demand flexibility into their analysis. In this paper, we propose a four-step method for embedding grid interactivity and demand flexibility into building benchmarking models that utilizes emerging building and time-series electricity data streams. We first engineer features to produce a mix-type dataset that encompasses many attributes of grid-interactive and efficient buildings, and then we apply K-medoids using Gower's Distance to produce peer-group clusters. We apply the method to a case study of 306 primary and secondary schools in southern California, USA. The results show that the method effectively clusters buildings by attributes of demand flexibility and energy efficiency. The clustering results reveal patterns in inefficient building operations and demand inflexibility at the building peer group level. In conclusion, the interpretation of clusters can serve as an integrated energy efficiency and demand flexibility benchmarking model and inform performance-specific policy targeting for buildings that go beyond traditional efficiency measures.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Value and Representing Competitiveness of Electricity System Technologies in Economic Models

Evaluating competition between electricity technologies is challenging because it depends on both their costs and their values. While technology costs can typically be estimated from projections of the cost components - capital, fuel, and O&M - estimating a technology's value is more complex due to its dependence on its contributions to multiple different grid services, each with prices that can vary substantially over space and time. In this work, using an electricity model of the contiguous United States, we develop relationships between relative value and share of total generation for major electricity generation technologies which, when paired with projections of technology costs, can be used to estimate technology competitiveness. We identify significant differences in the relationship between relative value and generation share for variable renewable energy (VRE) and non-VRE sources, but we demonstrate that all technologies require consideration of their dynamic values (in addition to cost) when evaluating competitiveness. In addition, we demonstrate that relative value of a technology is substantially impacted by not only its own generation share but also other aspects of the system state, in particular the mix of other technologies present in the system. Finally, we use the developed relative value relationships in combination with projections of future technology costs in a coarse resolution model that competes technologies based on a comprehensive competitiveness metric: profitability-adjusted LCOE (PLCOE). We show that this simple representation of technology competition approximately recovers the generation mix from a detailed model, which is not possible using LCOE alone. Such an approach can be used to improve the representation of technology competition in coarse-resolution models such as integrated assessment models, for which simplified metrics are often needed.

electricity model↗
DOE OSTI2023

Performance assessment of active insulation systems in residential buildings for energy savings and peak demand reduction

Active insulation systems (AISs) in buildings are envelopes that integrate thermal insulation, thermal energy storage, and controls. Although different designs for AISs have been proposed in the literature, a comprehensive analysis of feasible AISs is lacking. This paper discusses the energy performance, peak demand reduction potential, and performance characteristics of an AIS that uses a concrete wall as thermal mass sandwiched between two solid-state thermal switches (STSs). These STSs change their thermal conductivity using an on/off metal switch to create or break a thermal bridge across the STS. This paper first describes the experimental setup, used to determine the ratio of thermal resistance during R-high (low thermal conductivity) and R-low (high thermal conductivity) states of the STSs. This ratio was then used in whole-building energy simulations to evaluate the performance of AIS walls across different climate zones with/without a freeze timer of 60 min. The timer was added to reduce the number of switches of STSs from one state to another, and hence the energy needed for these switches. Analysis of the switching frequency and interval of STSs, thermal conductivity of walls, impact of wall orientation, and heat transfer through the wall from the use of AIS at different climate zones/locations were performed. The simulation results show that the AIS can achieve energy savings ranging from ~980 to 2,290 kWh in a single-family home with a floor area of ~220 m 2 compared with an IECC 2018 baseline. We found the energy savings was higher in dry climate zones which represent 17% of residential buildings in the United States, compared to humid or marine climate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advances in benchmarking and round robin testing for PEM water electrolysis: Reference protocol and hardware

While the number of publications in the PEM water electrolysis community increases each year, no common ground concerning reference hardware (test cells and test bench) and testing protocols has been yet established. This would, however, be necessary for the comparability of experimental results. First attempts for such reference hardware and procedures have been made in the framework of the Task 30 Electrolysis within the Technology Collaboration Programme on Advanced Fuel Cells (AFC TCP) of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Since then, improvements of both the test hardware (test cell and components) as well as the measurement protocol were identified, and a revised methodology and key results based on a comprehensive measurement series have been obtained. A detailed protocol for testing commercial reference components with a reference laboratory test cell developed in-house by Fraunhofer ISE is presented. For evaluation of the protocol and the hardware, it was tested at three different institutions at the same time. Impedance spectroscopic and polarization data was acquired and analyzed. The obtained differences in performance were calculated to give the community an expectation window to compare own data to. Finally, the importance of a thorough temperature control and the conditioning phase are demonstrated.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

A methodology to develop multi-physics dynamic fuel cell system models validated with vehicle realistic drive cycle data

Fuel cell (FC) technology has been identified as a technically attractive solution to decarbonize the transportation sector, especially for heavy-duty vehicles. In this context, the industry and the scientific community are in need of advanced fuel cell systems (FCS) models that are able to replicate real -world operating conditions. Due to the scarcity of said models in the open literature, this study aimed to develop a comprehensive methodology to calibrate and validate multi -physics dynamic FCS models. Therefore, the key contribution of this paper is the detailed description of the calibration process for each component and the calibration order. The specific focus here was to accurately describe the behavior of the FC stack as well as the cathode, anode, and cooling circuits of the balance of plant. The model was calibrated with the aid of experimental data from a Toyota Mirai FC electric vehicle, which was predominantly retrieved from the vehicle's Controller Area Network (CAN) bus system thereby negating the need for major intrusion into the powertrain system. The validation process was deemed successful with the model being able to truthfully replicate the characteristics of the FC vehicle operated on the World-wide harmonized Light duty Test Cycle (WLTC) 3b and US06 driving cycle. The time -resolved physical parameters such as the cathode pressure, mass flow, or the FC stack temperature were captured with high fidelity, while the overall performance parameters such as the H2 consumption in the stack and the system, and the compressor energy consumption were predicted accurately with a deviation lower than 0.47%, 1.75% and 1.89% with respect to the experimental data, respectively.

Lopez-Juarez, Marcos↗
DOE OSTI2024

Maximizing energy efficiency in wastewater treatment plants: A data-driven approach for waste heat recovery and an economic analysis using Organic Rankine Cycle and thermal energy storage

Maximizing energy efficiency through waste heat recovery (WHR) processes is crucial for sustainable and ecofriendly operations across multiple industries, notably in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). This work proposes a comprehensive approach for assessing the WHR feasibility in WWTPs, structured in two main objectives. Firstly, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model is developed to accurately predict WHR based on operational data, including biogas temperature, biogas pressure, daily production in kWh, and WHR values in kWh th . The second objective focuses on economically evaluating the WHR feasibility based on the estimated WHR values obtained by the ANN model, and then realistically assessing the economic feasibility of integrating the Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) and Seasonal Thermal Energy Storage (STES) systems. With an application to the As-Samra WWTP located in Jordan, the developed ANN model demonstrates promising results in the validation phase, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2206 kWh/day, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1674 kWh/day, and an R-squared (R 2 ) value of 68%. On the other hand, the economic analysis reveals that an optimal ORC system of 412.14 kW e capacity yields a Net Present Value (NPV) of 2.09 million US dollars, a Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of 0.0749 USD/kWh, a Payback Period (PBP) of 4.8 years, and annual revenues of 428 kUSD. This work also investigates the techno-economic feasibility of integrating ORC-STES. Results indicate that the LCOE and PBP are highly affected by the ORC's capital cost, and integrating STES increases the LCOE to 0.0824 USD/kWh, rendering its integration with ORC infeasible. In conclusion, this study aims to advance the understanding and application of WHR in WWTPs, paving the way for more efficient and sustainable practices in the field.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A valuation framework for customers impacted by extreme temperature-related outages

Extreme temperature outages can lead to not just economic losses but also various non-energy impacts (NEI), such as increased mortality rates, property damage, and reduced productivity, due to significant degradation of indoor operating conditions caused by service disruptions. However, existing resilience assessment approaches lack specificity for extreme temperature conditions. They often overlook temperature-related mortality and neglect the customer characteristics and grid response in the calculation, despite the significant influence of these factors on NEI-related economic losses. This paper aims to address these gaps by introducing a comprehensive framework to estimate the impact of resilience enhancement not only on the direct economic losses incurred by customers but also on potential NEI, including mortality and the value of statistical life during extreme temperature-related outages. The proposed resilience valuation integrates customer characteristics and grid response variables based on a scalable grid simulation environment. This study adopts a holistic approach to quantify customer-oriented economic impacts, utilizing probabilistic loss scenarios that incorporate health-related factors and damage/loss models as a function of exposure for valuation. The proposed methodology is demonstrated through comparative resilient outage planning, using grid response models emulating a Texas weather zone during the 2021 winter storm Uri. The case study results show that enhanced outage planning with hardened infrastructure can improve the system resilience and thereby reduce the relative risk of mortality by 16% and save the total costs related to non-energy impacts by 74%. In conclusion, these findings underscore the efficacy of the framework by assessing the financial implications of each case, providing valuable insights for decision-makers and stakeholders involved in extreme-weather related resilience planning for risk management and mitigation strategies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analyzing the impact of design factors on solar module thermomechanical durability using interpretable machine learning techniques

Solar modules in utility-scale systems are expected to maintain decades of lifetime to rival conventional energy sources. However, cyclic thermomechanical loading often degrades their long-term performance, highlighting the importance of effective design to mitigate thermal expansion mismatches between module materials. Given the complex composition of solar modules, isolating the impact of individual components on overall durability remains a challenging task. In this work, we analyze a comprehensive data set that comprises bill-of-materials (BOM) and thermal cycling power loss from 251 distinct module designs to identify the predominant design factors and their impacts on the thermomechanical durability of modules. The methodology of our analysis combines machine learning modeling (random forest) and Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) to correlate design factors with power loss and interpret the model’s decision-making. The interpretation reveals that silicon type (monocrystalline or polycrystalline), encapsulant thickness, busbar numbers, and wafer thickness predominantly influence the degradation. With lower power loss of around 0.6% on average in the SHAP analysis, monocrystalline cells present better durability than polycrystalline cells. This finding is further substantiated by statistical testing on our raw data set. The SHAP analysis also demonstrates that while thicker encapsulants lead to reduced power loss, further increasing their thickness over around 0.6 to 0.7 mm does not yield additional benefits, particularly for the front side one. In addition, other important BOM features such as the number of busbars are analyzed. This study provides a blueprint for utilizing explainable machine learning techniques in a complex material system and can potentially guide future research on optimizing the design of solar modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗