Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “AGE ESTIMATION”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,459 records · Page 81

Early-Stage Classic Hodgkin Lymphoma: The Utilization of Radiation Therapy and Its Impact on Overall Survival

Purpose: To examine the association between radiation therapy (RT) utilization and overall survival (OS) for patients with early-stage Hodgkin lymphoma (HL). Methods and Materials: Using the National Cancer Database, we evaluated clinical features and survival outcomes among patients diagnosed with stage I/II HL from 1998 to 2011. The association between RT use, covariables, and outcome was assessed in a Cox proportional hazards regression model. Propensity score matching was performed to balance observed confounding factors. Survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: Among the 41,943 patients in the National Cancer Database with stage I/II HL, 29,752 patients were analyzed for this study. Radiation therapy use was associated with younger age (≤40 years), favorable insured status, higher socioeconomic status (income, education), and treatment at comprehensive community cancer centers (all P<.05). Five-year OS for patients receiving RT was 94.5%, versus 88.9% for those not receiving RT (P<.01). Radiation therapy use was a significant predictor of OS in the “As-Treated” cohort (hazard ratio 0.53, 95% confidence interval 0.49-0.58, P<.01) and intention-to-treat analysis (P<.01). After propensity score matching based on clinicopathologic characteristics, RT use remained associated with improved OS (hazard ratio 0.46, 95% confidence interval 0.38-0.56, P<.01). Over the study period, RT utilization for this cohort decreased from 55% to 44%, most commonly because it was not part of the planned initial treatment strategy. Conclusions: Consolidation RT was associated with improved OS for patients with early-stage classic HL. We also have identified patient-specific variations in the use of RT that may be targeted to improve patient access to care.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

WISE Y dwarfs as probes of the brown dwarf-exoplanet connection

We have determined astrometric positions for 15 WISE-discovered late-type brown dwarfs (six T8-9 and nine Y dwarfs) using the Keck-II telescope, the Spitzer Space Telescope, and the Hubble Space Telescope. Combining data from 8 to 20 epochs we derive parallactic and proper motions for these objects, which puts the majority within 15 pc. For ages greater than a few Gyr, as suggested from kinematic considerations, we find masses of 10-30 M {sub Jup} based on standard models for the evolution of low-mass objects with a range of mass estimates for individual objects, depending on the model in question. Three of the coolest objects have effective temperatures ∼350 K and inferred masses of 10-15 M {sub Jup}. Our parallactic distances confirm earlier photometric estimates and direct measurements and suggest that the number of objects with masses below about 15 M {sub Jup} must be flat or declining, relative to higher mass objects. The masses of the coldest Y dwarfs may be similar to those inferred for recently imaged planet-mass companions to nearby young stars. Objects in this mass range, which appear to be rare in both the interstellar and protoplanetary environments, may both have formed via gravitational fragmentation—the brown dwarfs in interstellar clouds and companion objects in a protoplanetary disk. In both cases, however, the fact that objects in this mass range are relatively infrequent suggests that this mechanism must be inefficient in both environments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Pre-screening to guide coronary artery calcium scoring for early identification of high-risk individuals in the general population

Abstract Aims To evaluate the ability of Systematic COronary Risk Estimation 2 (SCORE2) and other pre-screening methods to identify individuals with high coronary artery calcium score (CACS) in the general population. Methods and results Computed tomography-based CACS quantification was performed in 6530 individuals aged 45 years or older from the general population. Various pre-screening methods to guide referral for CACS were evaluated. Miss rates for high CACS (CACS ≥300 and ≥100) were evaluated for various pre-screening methods: moderate (≥5%) and high (≥10%) SCORE2 risk, any traditional coronary artery disease (CAD) risk factor, any Risk Or Benefit IN Screening for CArdiovascular Disease (ROBINSCA) risk factor, and moderately (>3 mg/24 h) increased urine albumin excretion (UAE). Out of 6530 participants, 643 (9.8%) had CACS ≥300 and 1236 (18.9%) had CACS ≥100. For CACS ≥300 and CACS ≥100, miss rate was 32 and 41% for pre-screening by moderate (≥5%) SCORE2 risk and 81 and 87% for high (≥10%) SCORE2 risk, respectively. For CACS ≥300 and CACS ≥100, miss rate was 8 and 11% for pre-screening by at least one CAD risk factor, 24 and 25% for at least one ROBINSCA risk factor, and 67 and 67% for moderately increased UAE, respectively. Conclusion Many individuals with high CACS in the general population are left unidentified when only performing CACS in case of at least moderate (≥5%) SCORE2, which closely resembles current clinical practice. Less stringent pre-screening by presence of at least one CAD risk factor to guide CACS identifies more individuals with high CACS and could improve CAD prevention.

Ties, Daan (ORCID:0000000164729886)↗

Time trend analysis of rare cancer incidence 2011–2018: Nationwide population-based cancer registries in Japan

Rare cancers collectively account for a significant proportion of the overall cancer burden in Japan. We aimed to describe and examine the incidence of each rare cancer and the temporal changes using the internationally agreed rare cancer classification. Cancer cases registered in regional population-based cancer registries from 2011 to 2015 and the National Cancer Registry (NCR) from 2016 to 2018 were classified into 18 families, 68 Tier-1 cancer groupings, and 216 single cancer entities based on the RARECAREnet list. Crude incidence rates and age-standardized incidence rates (ASR) were calculated for Tier-1 and Tier-2 cancers. The annual percent change and the 95% and 99% confidence limits for annual ASR for each of the 68 Tier-1 cancers were estimated using the log-linear regression of the weighted least squares method. The differences in ASRs between 2011 and 2018 were evaluated as an absolute change. A total of 5,640,879 cases were classified into Tier-1 and Tier-2 cancers. The ASRs of 18 out of 52 Tier-1 cancers in the rare cancer families increased, whereas the ASR for epithelial tumors of gallbladder decreased. The ASRs of 6 out of the 16 Tier-1 cancers in the common cancer families increased, whereas those of epithelial tumors of stomach and liver decreased. There was no significant change in the incidence of the other 40 Tier-1 cancers. The incidence of several cancers increased due to the dissemination of diagnostic concepts, improved diagnostic techniques, changes in coding practice, and the initiation of the NCR.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Environmental cadmium and lead exposures and age-related macular degeneration in U.S. adults: The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2005 to 2008

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a complex disease resulting from the interplay of genetic predisposition and environmental exposures, and has been linked to oxidative stress and inflammatory mechanisms. Lead and cadmium can accumulate in human retinal tissues and may damage the retina through oxidative stress, and may thereby play a role in the development of AMD. We examined associations between blood lead, blood cadmium, and urinary cadmium concentrations and the presence of AMD in 5390 participants aged 40 years and older with blood lead and blood cadmium measures and a subsample of 1548 with urinary cadmium measures in the 2005–2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. AMD was identified by grading retinal photographs with a modification of the Wisconsin Age-Related Maculopathy Grading System. The weighted prevalence of AMD was 6.6% (n=426). Controlling for age, gender, race/ethnicity, education and body mass index, adults in the highest blood cadmium quartile had higher odds of AMD compared to the lowest quartile (odds ratio [OR], 1.56; 95% CI, 1.02–2.40), with a significant trend across quartiles (p-trend=0.02). After further adjustment for pack-years of cigarette smoking, estimates were somewhat attenuated (OR, 1.43; 95% CI, 0.91–2.27; p-trend=0.08). Similar associations were found with urinary cadmium. The association between urinary cadmium and AMD was stronger in non-Hispanic whites (NHW) than in non-Hispanic blacks (NHB) (OR, 3.31; 95% CI, 1.37–8.01 for levels above versus below the median among NHW; OR,1.45; 95% CI, 0.40–5.32 for levels above versus below the median among NHB; p-interaction=0.03). We found no association between blood lead levels and AMD. Higher cadmium body burden may increase risk of AMD, particularly among non-Hispanic white individuals; however, additional studies are needed before firm conclusions can be drawn. - Highlights: • We examined the association of cadmium and lead with age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in U.S. adults. • Cadmium in both blood and urine was borderline significantly associated with the risk of AMD. • Blood lead was not associated with the risk of AMD. • The association between urine cadmium and AMD was stronger in whites than in blacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NEW EXTINCTION AND MASS ESTIMATES FROM OPTICAL PHOTOMETRY OF THE VERY LOW MASS BROWN DWARF COMPANION CT CHAMAELEONTIS B WITH THE MAGELLAN AO SYSTEM

We used the Magellan adaptive optics system and its VisAO CCD camera to image the young low mass brown dwarf companion CT Chamaeleontis B for the first time at visible wavelengths. We detect it at r', i', z', and Y{sub S}. With our new photometry and T {sub eff} ∼ 2500 K derived from the shape of its K-band spectrum, we find that CT Cha B has A{sub V} = 3.4 ± 1.1 mag, and a mass of 14-24 M{sub J} according to the DUSTY evolutionary tracks and its 1-5 Myr age. The overluminosity of our r' detection indicates that the companion has significant Hα emission and a mass accretion rate ∼6 × 10{sup –10} M {sub ☉} yr{sup –1}, similar to some substellar companions. Proper motion analysis shows that another point source within 2'' of CT Cha A is not physical. This paper demonstrates how visible wavelength adaptive optics photometry (r', i', z', Y{sub S}) allows for a better estimate of extinction, luminosity, and mass accretion rate of young substellar companions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Simulation Studies of the Effect of Forest Spatial Structure on InSAR Signature

The height of scattering phase retrieved from InSAR data is considered being correlated with the tree height and the spatial structure of the forest stand. Though some researchers have used simple backscattering models to estimate tree height from the height of scattering center, the effect of forest spatial structure on InSAR data is not well understood yet. A three-dimensional coherent radar backscattering model for forest canopies based on realistic three-dimensional scene was used to investigate the effect in this paper. The realistic spatial structure of forest canopies was established either by field measurements (stem map) or through use of forest growth model. Field measurements or a forest growth model parameterized using local environmental parameters provides information of forest species composition and tree sizes in certain growth phases. A fractal tree model (L-system) was used to simulate individual 3- D tree structure of different ages or heights. Trees were positioned in a stand in certain patterns resulting in a 3-D medium of discrete scatterers. The radar coherent backscatter model took the 3-D forest scene as input and simulates the coherent radar backscattering signature. Interferometric SAR images of 3D scenes were simulated and heights of scattering phase centers were estimated from the simulated InSAR data. The effects of tree height, crown cover, crown depth, and the spatial distribution patterns of trees on the scattering phase center were analyzed. The results will be presented in the paper.

Sun, Guoqing↗

Time-temperature-superposition analysis of diverse datasets by the minimum-arclength method: long-term prediction with uncertainty margins

In a recent publication, we carried out an extensive analysis of an unsupervised method of determining optimum shift factors in time-temperature-superposition of accelerated-aging data that involves minimizing the vertical arclength to obtain the master curve. For synthetic Arrhenius data with a variety of noise distributions, the work showed that, in conjunction with bootstrap-resampling, the method can produce reliable estimates of the mean activation energy along with uncertainty quantification. Here, we apply the above method to six different datasets taken from the published literature and demonstrate accurate prediction of mean activation energy from the data as-is without the need for any pre-processing or fitting. We also compare uncertainty margins computed by second-order bootstrap with that by linear regression theory and show that the former appears to provide consistent margins in the presence of common noise types in real data, including intra-isotherm measurement-errors, sample-to-sample variations, and intrinsic deviation from perfect Arrhenius behavior.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Baseline blood levels of manganese, lead, cadmium, copper, and zinc in residents of Beijing suburb

Baseline blood concentrations of metals are important references for monitoring metal exposure in environmental and occupational settings. The purpose of this study was to determine the blood levels of manganese (Mn), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), lead (Pb), and cadmium (Cd) among the residents (aged 12–60 years old) living in the suburb southwest of Beijing in China and to compare the outcomes with reported values in various developed countries. Blood samples were collected from 648 subjects from March 2009 to February 2010. Metal concentrations in the whole blood were determined by ICP-MS. The geometric means of blood levels of Mn, Cu, Zn, Pb and Cd were 11.4, 802.4, 4665, 42.6, and 0.68 µg/L, respectively. Male subjects had higher blood Pb than the females, while the females had higher blood Mn and Cu than the males. There was no gender difference for blood Cd and Zn. Smokers had higher blood Cu, Zn, and Cd than nonsmokers. There were significant age-related differences in blood levels of all metals studied; subjects in the 17–30 age group had higher blood levels of Mn, Pb, Cu, and Zn, while those in the 46–60 age group had higher Cd than the other age groups. A remarkably lower blood level of Cu and Zn in this population as compared with residents of other developed countries was noticed. Based on the current study, the normal reference ranges for the blood Mn were estimated to be 5.80–25.2 μg/L; for blood Cu, 541–1475 μg/L; for blood Zn, 2349–9492 μg/L; for blood Pb, <100 μg/L; and for blood Cd, <5.30 μg/L in the general population living in Beijing suburbs. - Highlights: • Baseline blood levels of metals in residents of Beijing suburb are investigated. • BMn and BPb in this cohort are higher than those in other developed countries. • Remarkably lower blood levels of Cu and Zn in this Chinese cohort are noticed. • The reference values for blood levels of Mn, Cu, Zn, Pb, and Cd are established.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Distance Estimate Method for Asymptotic Giant Branch Stars Using Infrared Spectral Energy Distributions

We present a method to estimate distances to asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars in the Galaxy, using spectral energy distributions (SEDs) in the near- and mid-infrared. By assuming that a given set of source properties (initial mass, stellar temperature, composition, and evolutionary stage) will provide a typical SED shape and brightness, sources are color matched to a distance-calibrated template and thereafter scaled to extract the distance. The method is tested by comparing the distances obtained to those estimated from very long baseline interferometry or Gaia parallax measurements, yielding a strong correlation in both cases. Additional templates are formed by constructing a source sample likely to be close to the Galactic center, and thus with a common, typical distance for calibration of the templates. These first results provide statistical distance estimates to a set of almost 15,000 Milky Way AGB stars belonging to the Bulge Asymmetries and Dynamical Evolution (BAaDE) survey, with typical distance errors of ±35%. With these statistical distances, a map of the intermediate-age population of stars traced by AGBs is formed, and a clear bar structure can be discerned, consistent with the previously reported inclination angle of 30° to the GC–Sun direction vector. These results motivate deeper studies of the AGB population to tease out the intermediate-age stellar distribution throughout the Galaxy, as well as determining statistical properties of the AGB population luminosity and mass-loss-rate distributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Microcraters on Apollo 15 and 16 rocks

Microcrater frequency distributions, determined for 11 Apollo 16 rocks and three Apollo 15 rocks, fall into four categories. Category 1 rocks (68415, 68416, 62235) are angular, cratered on one side only, and have moderate crater densities. Category 2 rocks (60016, 66075, 61175) are subrounded, cratered on all sides, and have distributions suggestive of the steady state. Category 3 rocks (61015, 62295) are subangular and cratered on only one side, but the crater frequency distributions have some of the characteristics of category 2 rocks. Category 4 rocks (15015, 15017, 15076, 60335) are angular, cratered on only one side, and have moderated to very low crater densities. The crater frequency distributions of categories 1 and 4 have properties indicating the possibility of estimating the time they were exposed to micrometeor bombardment. Category 1 rocks appear to have been exposed for 2 to 3 m.y. These rocks, particularly 68415, 68416, and 69935, may be ejecta from South Ray Crater, indicating an age of 2 to 3 m.y. for South Ray Crater. Category 4 rocks have been exposed for much shorter periods.

Morrison, D. A.↗

Helium diffusion in stars and the value of the cosmological constant

The effect of He diffusion on the evolution of stars is to speed it up by increasing the mean atomic weight at the center, thereby minimizing the apparent conflict between the great ages of globular clusters and the age of the universe, as arrived at via the Hubble constant. Attention is presently given to the consequences of work on this effect by Noerdlinger and Arrigo (1980) and Stringfellow et al. (1983), implying that Tayler's (1986) estimate for globular clusters of 16 Gyr should be reduced to 13 Gyr.

Noerdlinger, Peter↗

The resurfacing history of Mars - A synthesis of digitized, viking-based geology

A global geologic map series of Mars was digitized at high resolution (1.846 sq km/pixel). It was found that the surface of Mars is predominantly volcanic. A resurfacing history was constructed by estimating the total extent of the geologic units. Eolian resurfacing was prevalent during the Late Amazonian Epoch, affecting 4.9 x 10 to the 6th sq km. It was found that resurfacing rates vary according to the absolute-age scheme used and generally decrease with time. Resurfacing rates were approximately 1000 sq km/yr during the Middle Noachian Epoch, one hundred to several hundred sq km/yr during the Late Noachian to Late Hesperian Epochs, and tens of sq km/yr or less during the Amazonian Period.

Tanaka, Kenneth L.↗

Anthropogenic Sulfate, Clouds, and Climate Forcing

This research work is a joint effort between research groups at the Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Virginia Tech University, Georgia Institute of Technology, Brookhaven National Laboratory, and Texas A&M University. It has been jointly sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. In this research, a detailed tropospheric aerosol-chemistry model that predicts oxidant concentrations as well as concentrations of sulfur dioxide and sulfate aerosols has been coupled to a general circulation model that distinguishes between cloud water mass and cloud droplet number. The coupled model system has been first validated and then used to estimate the radiative impact of anthropogenic sulfur emissions. Both the direct radiative impact of the aerosols and their indirect impact through their influence on cloud droplet number are represented by distinguishing between sulfuric acid vapor and fresh and aged sulfate aerosols, and by parameterizing cloud droplet nucleation in terms of vertical velocity and the number concentration of aged sulfur aerosols. Natural sulfate aerosols, dust, and carbonaceous and nitrate aerosols and their influence on the radiative impact of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, through competition as cloud condensation nuclei, will also be simulated. Parallel simulations with and without anthropogenic sulfur emissions are performed for a global domain. The objectives of the research are: To couple a state-of-the-art tropospheric aerosol-chemistry model with a global climate model. To use field and satellite measurements to evaluate the treatment of tropospheric chemistry and aerosol physics in the coupled model. To use the coupled model to simulate the radiative (and ultimately climatic) impacts of anthropogenic sulfur emissions.

Ghan, Steven J.↗

The Plunge Phase of Friction Stir Welding

The many advantages of Friction Stir Welding have led to a relatively rapid acceptance in the often conservative welding community. Because the process is so different from traditional fusion welding, with which most investigators are most familiar, there remain many aspects of FSW for which there is no clear consensus. For example, the well known onion rings seen in transverse sections have been variously interpreted as grain size variations, variation in density of second phase particles and parts of the carousel of material rotating with the pin that have been shed from the carousel. Using Orientation Imaging Microscopy, Schneider has recently noted that the onion rings have a different orientation (and hence etch differently) than the surrounding material, and this orientation is consistent with slip plane orientations at the edge of the carousel. Likewise, the forces and torque exerted by the FSW tool on the work piece largely remain unaccounted for. Although these forces are routinely measured by investigators with commercial instrumented welders, they are rarely reported or even qualitatively analyzed. This paper will introduce a model based on a carousel or disk of material that rotates with the tool to estimate the torque and plunge force required to plunge a tool into the work piece. A stationary tool is modeled rather than the moving tool because effects such as thermal transients and metallurgical changes in the sample (primarily aging in aluminum) can be more easily accounted for. It is believed, however, that with some modifications the model should be applicable to a moving tool also.

McClure, John C.↗

Integration of performance assessments and 3116 basis documents within the Savannah River Site liquid waste facilities - 15375

The end of the Cold War has left a legacy of over 136 million liters (36 million gallons) of radioactive waste in the aging waste tanks at the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site (SRS). A robust program is in place to remove waste from these tanks, treat the waste to separate it into a relatively small volume of high-level waste and a large volume of low-level waste, and to actively dispose of the low-level waste on-site. This process allows the US Department of Energy (DOE) to move forward with closure of the cleaned waste tanks and associated ancillary structures. To support performance-based, risk decision making for closure and disposal activities, three individual performance assessments (PAs) have been developed - salt-stone Disposal Facility, F-Tank Farm and H-Tank Farm. In addition, three Waste Determinations (WDs) have been made by the Secretary of Energy, in consultation with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), under the authority of Section 3116 of the Ronald W. Reagan National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2005 (NDAA Section 3116). To support these waste determination decisions, individual '3116 Basis Documents' were developed that describe the assumptions and conditions under which the criteria outlined in NDAA Section 3116 are met. The development of each of the PAs represented a long and arduous effort that involved the development of both deterministic and probabilistic conceptual models of the facilities, the development of assumptions and associated ranges, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, model data collection and analyses, writing of the actual performance assessment, internal and external peer reviews, and ultimately approval by DOE. Similarly, the development of the 3116 Basis Documents represents similar time and financial commitments. At the end of these efforts, after years of preparation and millions of dollars in investment, we have thousands of pages of highly technical text, tables of data and hundreds of graphs and charts all contained in a series of thick binders that fit neatly on the shelf of a bookcase. We were done - right? Actually, we were just getting started. Performance Assessments and 3116 Basis Documents are living documents that shape day-to-day and long-term decision making in the operation of a low-level waste disposal facility (e.g., salt-stone Disposal Facility) or in area closure activities (e.g., F-Tank Farm or H-Tank Farm). Although these documents do not contain specifically described requirements per se, they do utilize specific assumptions that, if changed significantly, could result in no longer being able to demonstrate that there is reasonable assurance that the required performance objectives or the criteria from NDAA Section 3116 can be met. Savannah River Remediation LLC (SRR), the contractor responsible for Liquid Waste operations at SRS, has not only developed the PAs and 3116 Basis Documents to support this work and shepherded these documents through the DOE approval process, but has also developed the processes and procedures to ensure the successful implementation and integration of these documents into day-to-day decision making within the associated facilities. This paper describes these processes, including the Un-reviewed Waste Management Question process and the PA Maintenance process, and provides specific examples of their successful implementation. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

SU-F-I-79: Validation of a Monte Carlo Radiographic Simulation

Purpose: To validate a radiographic simulation in order to estimate patient dose due to clinically-used radiography protocols. Methods: A Monte Carlo simulation was created to simulate a radiographic x-ray beam using GEANT4. Initial validation was performed according to a portion of TG 195. Computational NURBS-based phantoms were used simulate patients of varying ages and sizes. The deposited energy in the phantom is output by the simulation. The exposure in air from a clinically used radiography unit was measured at 100 cm for various tube potentials. 10 million photons were simulated with 1 cubic centimeter of air located 100 cm from the source, and the total absorbed dose was noted. The normalization factor was determined by taking a ratio of the measured dose in air to the simulated dose in air. Dose to individual voxels is calculated using the energy deposition map along with the voxelized and segmented phantom and the normalization factor. Finally, the effective dose is calculated using the ICRP methodology and tissue weighting factors. Results: This radiography simulation allows for the calculation and visualization of the energy deposition map within a voxelized phantom. The ratio of exposure, measured using an ionization chamber, to air in the simulation was determined. Since the simulation output is calibrated to match the exposure of a given clinical radiographic x-ray tube, the dose map may be visualized. This will also allow for absorbed dose estimation in specific organs or tissues as well as a whole body effective dose estimation. Conclusion: This work indicates that our Monte Carlo simulation may be used to estimate the radiation dose from clinical radiographic protocols. This will allow for an estimate of radiographic dose from various examinations without the use of traditional methods such as thermoluminescent dosimeters and body phantoms.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Photochemical Evolution of the 2013 California Rim Fire: Synergistic Impacts of Reactive Hydrocarbons and Enhanced Oxidants

Large wildfires markedly alter regional atmospheric composition, but chemical complexity challenges model predictions of downwind impacts. Here, we elucidate key facets of gas-phase photochemistry and assess novel chemical processes via a case study of the 2013 California Rim Fire plume. Airborne in situ observations, acquired during the NASA Studies of Emissions, Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) mission, illustrate the evolution of volatile organic compounds (VOC), oxidants, and reactive nitrogen over 12 hours of atmospheric aging. Measurements show rapid formation of ozone and peroxyacyl nitrates (PNs), sustained peroxide production, and prolonged enhancements in oxygenated VOC and nitrogen oxides (NOX). Measurements and Lagrangian trajectories constrain a 0-D puff model that approximates plume photochemical history and provides a framework for evaluating key processes. Simulations examine the effects of 1) previously-unmeasured reactive VOC identified in recent laboratory studies, and 2) emissions and secondary production of nitrous acid (HONO). Inclusion of estimated unmeasured VOC leads to a 250% increase in OH reactivity and a 70% increase in radical production via oxygenated VOC photolysis. HONO amplifies radical cycling and serves as a downwind NOX source, although two different HONO production mechanisms (particulate nitrate photolysis and heterogeneous NO2 conversion) exhibit markedly different effects on ozone, NOX, and PNs. Analysis of radical initiation rates suggests that oxygenated VOC photolysis is a major radical source, exceeding HONO photolysis when averaged over the first 2 hours of aging. Ozone production chemistry transitions from VOC-sensitive to NOX-sensitive within the first hour of plume aging, with both peroxide and organic nitrate formation contributing significantly to radical termination. To simulate smoke plume chemistry accurately, models should simultaneously account for the full reactive VOC pool and all relevant oxidant sources.

SEAC4RS↗