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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2011

Electron Scale Solar Wind Turbulence: Cluster Observations and Theoretical Modeling

Turbulence at MagnetoHydroDynamics (MHD) scales of the solar wind has been studied for more than three decades, using data analyzes, theoretical and numerical modeling. However smaller scales have not been explored until very recently. Here, we review recent results on the first observation of cascade and dissipation of the solar wind turbulence at the electron scales. Thanks to the high resolution magnetic and electric field data of the Cluster spacecraft, we computed the spectra of turbulence up to {approx}100 Hz (in the spacecraft reference frame) and found two distinct breakpoints in the magnetic spectrum at 0.4 Hz and 35 Hz, which correspond, respectively, to the Doppler-shifted proton and electron gyroscales, f{sub {rho}p} and f{sub {rho}e}. Below f{sub {rho}p} the spectrum follows a Kolmogorov scaling f{sup -1.62}, typical of spectra observed at 1 AU. Above f{sub {rho}p} a second inertial range is formed with a scaling f{sup -2.3} down to f{sub {rho}e}. Above f{sub {rho}e} the spectrum has a steeper power law {approx}f{sup -4.1} down to the noise level of the instrument. Solving numerically the linear Maxwell-Vlasov equations combined with recent theoretical predictions of the Gyro-Kinetic theory, we show that the present results are fully consistent with a scenario of a quasi-two-dimensional cascade into Kinetic Alfven modes (KAW).

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Integrated 0-1 Hour First-Flash Lightning Nowcasting, Lightning Amount and Lightning Jump Warning Capability

Lightning one of the most dangerous weather-related phenomena, especially as many jobs and activities occur outdoors, presenting risk from a lightning strike. Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning represents a considerable safety threat to people at airfields, marinas, and outdoor facilities-from airfield personnel, to people attending outdoor stadium events, on beaches and golf courses, to mariners, as well as emergency personnel. Holle et al. (2005) show that 90% of lightning deaths occurred outdoors, while 10% occurred indoors despite the perception of safety when inside buildings. Curran et al. (2000) found that nearly half of fatalities due to weather were related to convective weather in the 1992-1994 timeframe, with lightning causing a large component of the fatalities, in addition to tornadoes and flash flooding. Related to the aviation industry, CG lightning represents a considerable hazard to baggage-handlers, aircraft refuelers, food caterers, and emergency personnel, who all become exposed to the risk of being struck within short time periods while convective storm clouds develop. Airport safety protocols require that ramp operations be modified or discontinued when lightning is in the vicinity (typically 16 km), which becomes very costly and disruptive to flight operations. Therefore, much focus has been paid to nowcasting the first-time initiation and extent of lightning, both of CG and of any lightning (e.g, in-cloud, cloud-to-cloud). For this project three lightning nowcasting methodologies will be combined: (1) a GOESbased 0-1 hour lightning initiation (LI) product (Harris et al. 2010; Iskenderian et al. 2012), (2) a High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) lightning probability and forecasted lightning flash density product, such that a quantitative amount of lightning (QL) can be assigned to a location of expected LI, and (3) an algorithm that relates Pseudo-GLM data (Stano et al. 2012, 2014) to the so-called "lightning jump" (LJ) methodology (Shultz et al. 2011) to monitor lightning trends and to anticipate/forecast severe weather (hail > or =2.5 cm, winds > or =25 m/s, tornadoes). The result will be a time-continuous algorithm that uses GOES satellite, radar fields, and HRRR model fields to nowcast first-flash LI and QL, and subsequently monitors lightning trends on a perstorm basis within the LJ algorithm for possible severe weather occurrence out to > or =3 hours. The LI-QL-LJ product will also help prepare the operational forecast community for Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data expected in late 2015, as these data are monitored for ongoing convective storms. The LI-QL-LJ product will first predict where new lightning is highly probable using GOES imagery of developing cumulus clouds, followed by n analysis of NWS (dual-polarization) radar indicators (reflectivity at the -10 C altitude) of lightning occurrence, to increase confidence that LI is immanent. Once lightning is observed, time-continuous lightning mapping array and Pseudo-GLM observations will be analyzed to assess trends and the severe weather threat as identified by trends in lightning (i.e. LJs). Additionally, 5- and 15-min GOES imagery will then be evaluated on a per-storm basis for overshooting and other cloud-top features known to be associated with severe storms. For the processing framework, the GOES-R 0-1 hour convective initiation algorithm's output will be developed within the Warning Decision Support System - Integrated Information (WDSS-II) tracking tool, and merged with radar and lightning (LMA/Psuedo-GLM) datasets for active storms. The initial focus of system development will be over North Alabama for select lightning-active days in summer 2014, yet will be formed in an expandable manner. The lightning alert tool will also be developed in concert with National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters to meet their needs for real-time, accurate first-flash LI and timing, as well as anticipated lightning trends, amounts, continuation and cessation, so to provide key situational awareness and decision support information. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center will provide important logistical and collaborative support and training, involving interactions with the NWS and broader user community.

Mecikalski, John↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mechanisms of Low-Level Jet Formation in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Offshore

Low level jets (LLJs) in the atmosphere exhibit a local windspeed maximum inthe boundary layer and are commonly observed both over land and in coastal environments. Because LLJs present strong positive shear beneath the maximum (or "jet nose") and negative shear above the nose, they pose a challenge to future offshore wind technology through their impacts on turbine performance and wakes. Summertime LLJs in the Great Plains have been attributed to frictional decoupling triggering an inertial oscillation, whilecoastal LLJs in California or the North Sea have additional driving mechanisms such as baroclinic forcing. By comparison, LLJs in the coastal US Mid-Atlantic have received less attention, with conflicting evidence about the mechanism that triggers these high shear events. Motivated by future wind energy development in the region, this work elucidates the atmospheric mechanisms of LLJ formation in the US Mid-Atlantic. Using observational data from two floating LiDAR buoys deployed bythe New York State Energy Research and Development Authority in the NY Bight, we identify four sustained LLJ events whose windspeeds and directions are well predicted by a WRF simulation (Weather Research and Forecasting Model). From analysis of the WRF data, we find that the four case studies provide evidence of concurrent inertial oscillation, reduced vertical mixing, and baroclinicity. In addition, we use simple atmospheric dynamics and a single-column-model to compare the relative contribution of each of these mechanisms to triggering the LLJ. By improving understanding and predictability of coastal mid-Atlantic LLJs, this work reduces uncertaintiesof wind energy deployment in the region, aiding the US's transition toward renewable energy.

atmospheric boundary layers↗
NASA NTRS2006

Forecasting of Storm-Surge Floods Using ADCIRC and Optimized DEMs

Increasing the accuracy of storm-surge flood forecasts is essential for improving preparedness for hurricanes and other severe storms and, in particular, for optimizing evacuation scenarios. An interactive database, developed by WorldWinds, Inc., contains atlases of storm-surge flood levels for the Louisiana/Mississippi gulf coast region. These atlases were developed to improve forecasting of flooding along the coastline and estuaries and in adjacent inland areas. Storm-surge heights depend on a complex interaction of several factors, including: storm size, central minimum pressure, forward speed of motion, bottom topography near the point of landfall, astronomical tides, and, most importantly, maximum wind speed. The information in the atlases was generated in over 100 computational simulations, partly by use of a parallel-processing version of the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. ADCIRC is a nonlinear computational model of hydrodynamics, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the US Navy, as a family of two- and three-dimensional finite-element-based codes. It affords a capability for simulating tidal circulation and storm-surge propagation over very large computational domains, while simultaneously providing high-resolution output in areas of complex shoreline and bathymetry. The ADCIRC finite-element grid for this project covered the Gulf of Mexico and contiguous basins, extending into the deep Atlantic Ocean with progressively higher resolution approaching the study area. The advantage of using ADCIRC over other storm-surge models, such as SLOSH, is that input conditions can include all or part of wind stress, tides, wave stress, and river discharge, which serve to make the model output more accurate. To keep the computational load manageable, this work was conducted using only the wind stress, calculated by using historical data from Hurricane Camille, as the input condition for the model. Hurricane storm-surge simulations were performed on an eight-node Linux computer cluster. Each node contained dual 2-GHz processors, 2GB of memory, and a 40GB hard drive. The digital elevation model (DEM) for this region was specified using a combination of Navy data (over water), NOAA data (for the coastline), and optimized Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data (over land). This high-resolution topographical data of the Mississippi coastal region provided the ADCIRC model with improved input with which to calculate improved storm-surge forecasts.

Valenti, Elizabeth↗
NASA NTRS2004

The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array: Recent Severe Storm Observations and Future Prospects

The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array became operational in November 2001 as a principal component of a severe weather test bed to infuse new science and technology into the short-term forecasting of severe and hazardous weather, principally within nearby National Weather Service forecast offices. Since the installation of the LMA, it has measured the total lightning activity of a large number of severe weather events, including three supercell tornado outbreaks, two supercell hailstorm events, and numerous microburst-producing storms and ordinary non-severe thunderstorms. The key components of evolving storm morphology examined are the time rate-of-change (temporal trending) of storm convective and precipitation characteristics that can be diagnosed in real-time using NEXRAD WSR-88D Doppler radar (echo growth and decay, precipitation structures and velocity features, outflow boundaries), LMA (total lightning flash rate and its trend) and National Lightning Detection Network (cloud-to- ground lightning, its polarity and trends). For example, in a transitional season supercell tornado outbreak, peak total flash rates for typical supercells in Tennessee reached 70-100/min, and increases in the total flash rate occurred during storm intensification as much as 20-25 min prior to at least some of the tornadoes. The most intense total flash rate measured during this outbreak (over 800 flashes/min) occurred in a storm in Alabama. In the case of a severe summertime pulse thunderstorm in North Alabama, the peak total flash rate reached 300/min, with a strong increase in total lightning evident some 9 min before damaging winds were observed at the surface. In this paper we provide a sampling of LMA observations and products during severe weather events to illustrate the capability of the system, and discuss the prospects for improving the short-term forecasting of convective weather using total lightning data.

Goodman, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS1974

The GISS model of the global atmosphere

A description and numerical results are presented for a global atmospheric circulation model developed at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). The model version described is a 9-level primitive-equation model in sigma coordinates. It includes a realistic distribution of continents, oceans and topography. Detailed calculations of energy transfer by solar and terrestrial radiation make use of cloud and water vapor fields calculated by the model. The model hydrologic cycle includes two precipitation mechanisms: large-scale supersaturation and a parameterization of subgrid-scale cumulus convection. Results are presented both from a comparison of the 13th to the 43rd days (January) of one integration with climatological statistics, and from five short-range forecasting experiments. In the extended integration, the near-equilibrium January-mean model atmosphere exhibits an energy cycle in good agreement with observational estimates, together with generally realistic zonal mean fields of winds, temperature, humidity, transports, diabatic heating, evaporation, precipitation, and cloud cover.

Somerville, R. C. J.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Energy: An annotated bibliography

This bibliography is a compilation of approximately 4,300 selected references on energy and energy related topics. The references are arranged by date, with the latest works first, in the following subject categories: (1) energy and power - general; resources, supply/demand, and forecasting; policy, legislation, and regulation; research and development; environment; consumption and economics; and conservation, (2) energy and power sources - general, fossil fuels, hydrogen and methanol, organic wastes and waste heat, nuclear, geothermal, solar, wind, ocean/water, magnetohydrodynamics and electrohydrodynamics, and gas and steam turbines, and (3) energy and power storage and transmission. Literature from bibliographic sources dated January 1972 through July 1974 is covered, with some pertinent literature prior to 1972 included.

Blow, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS1980

An analysis of the Seasat Satellite Data Distribution System

A computerized data distribution network for remote accessing of Seasat generated data is described. The service is intended as an experiment to determine user needs and operational abilities for utilizing on-line satellite generated oceanographic data. Synoptic weather observations are input to the U.S. Fleet Numerical Oceanographic Central for preparation and transfer to a PDP 11/60 central computer, from which all access trunks originate. The data available includes meteorological and sea-state information in the form of analyses and forecasts, and users are being monitored for reactions to the system design, data products, system operation, and performance evaluation. The system provides data on sea level and upper atmospheric pressure, sea surface temperature, wind magnitude and direction, significant wave heights, direction, and periods, and spectral wave data. Transmissions have a maximum rate of 1.1 kbit/sec over the telephone line.

Ferrari, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Objective analysis and assimilation of observational data from FGGE

An objective analysis scheme is presented for the assimilation of meteorological data in which wind, geopotential height, and relative humidity are analyzed on mandatory pressure levels, and surface pressure and temperature are reduced to sea level for analysis. The present analysis/forecast system demonstrates a reasonable degree of forecast skill over the Northern Hemisphere for an ensemble of five-day integrations during the First Special Observing Period of the First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE) The vertical motion field shows outstanding agreement with the large scale synoptic pattern for the sample analysis presented, and the mean meridional circulation portrayed in the FGGE analysis is in close agreement with observational estimates.

Baker, W. E.↗
NASA NTRS1983

The use of dynamical constraints in the analysis of mesoscale rawinsonde data

A process for data interpolation which seeks to maintain dynamical consistency is applied to the analysis of mesoscale rawinsonde data obtained from the National Severe Storms Laboratory. The analysis procedure is in two steps: a successive-corrections interpolation to gridpoints, followed by a variational adjustment which uses a set of forecast equations of horizontal momentum as dynamical constraints. The objective analysis is applied in case studies of conditions on May 22, 1966 and June 8, 1966, and it is shown that the adjusted winds and geopotentials have greatly reduced residuals compared to the initial fields. Adjustments to the wind and geopotential fields have root mean square values of 1-2 m/sec and 30-50 sq m/sec per sec, respectively. In addition, the vertical velocity fields computed from the adjusted winds are found to be in closer agreement with actual weather data.

Bloom, S. C.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Predicting Clear-Air Turbulence From Microwave Radiometry

Proposed system combines microwave-instrument measurement of vertical temperature gradient with inertial navigation-system measurement of wind vector and provides warnings about time and severity of upcoming clear air turbulence (CAT), and indicates how to avoid it. Also saves fuel by making it unnecessary to detour around regions conservative forecasts indicate might contain CAT, instead, one navigates more efficiently by following altitude-avoidance advisories of proposed instrument.

Gary, Bruce L.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Total Lightning and Radar Storm Characteristics Associated with Severe Storms in Central Florida

This paper examines the three dimensional characteristics of lightning flashes and severe storms observed in Central Florida during 1997-1998. The lightning time history of severe and tornadic storms were captured during the on-going ground validation campaign supporting the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) experiment on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). The ground validation campaign is a collaborative experiment that began in 1997 and involves scientists at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center, MIT/Lincoln Laboratories, and the NWS Forecast Office at Melbourne, FL. Lightning signatures that may provide potential early warning of severe storms are being evaluated by the forecasters at the NWS/MLB office. Severe storms with extreme flash rates sometimes exceeding 300 per minute and accompanying rapid increases in flash rate prior to the onset of the severe weather (hall, damaging winds, tornadoes) have been reported by Hodanish et al. and Williams et al. (1998-this conference). We examine the co-evolving changes in storm structure (mass, echo top, shear, latent heat release) and kinematics associated with these extreme and rapid flash rate changes over time. The flash frequency and density are compared with the three dimensional radar reflectivity structure of the storm to help interpret the possible mechanisms producing the extreme and rapidly increasing flash rates. For two tornadic storms examined thus far, we find the burst of lightning is associated with the development of upper level rotation in the storm. In one case, the lightning burst follows the formation of a bounded weak echo region (BWER). The flash rates diminish with time as the rotation develops to the ground in conjunction with the decent of the reflectivity core. Our initial findings suggest the dramatic increase of flash rates is associated with a sudden and dramatic increase in storm updraft intensity which we hypothesize is stretching vertical vorticity as well as enhancing the development of the mixed phase region of the storm. We discuss the importance of these factors in producing both the observed extreme flash rates and the severe weather that follows in these storms and others to be presented.

Goodman, Steven J↗
NASA NTRS2013

A Major Solar Eruptive Event in July 2012: Defining Extreme Space Weather Scenarios

A key goal for space weather studies is to define severe and extreme conditions that might plausibly afflict human technology. On 23 July 2012, solar active region 1520 (approx. 141 deg W heliographic longitude) gave rise to a powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) with an initial speed that was determined to be 2500+/-500 km/s. The eruption was directed away from Earth toward 125 deg W longitude. STEREO-A sensors detected the CME arrival only about 19 h later and made in situ measurements of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field. In this paper, we address the question of what would have happened if this powerful interplanetary event had been Earthward directed. Using a well-proven geomagnetic storm forecast model, we find that the 23-24 July event would certainly have produced a geomagnetic storm that was comparable to the largest events of the twentieth century (Dst approx. - 500 nT). Using plausible assumptions about seasonal and time-of-day orientation of the Earth's magnetic dipole, the most extreme modeled value of storm-time disturbance would have been Dst= - 1182 nT. This is considerably larger than estimates for the famous Carrington storm of 1859. This finding has far reaching implications because it demonstrates that extreme space weather conditions such as those during March of 1989 or September of 1859 can happen even during a modest solar activity cycle such as the one presently underway. We argue that this extreme event should immediately be employed by the space weather community to model severe space weather effects on technological systems such as the electric power grid.

solar longitude↗
NASA NTRS2021

Retrieving the global distribution of the threshold of wind erosion from satellite data and implementing it into the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory land–atmosphere model (GFDL AM4.0/LM4.0)

Dust emission is initiated when surface wind velocities exceed the threshold of wind erosion. Many dust models used constant threshold values globally. Here we use satellite products to characterize the frequency of dust events and land surface properties. By matching this frequency derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue aerosol products with surface winds, we are able to retrieve a climatological monthly global distribution of the wind erosion threshold (V(threshold)) over dry and sparsely vegetated surfaces. This monthly two-dimensional threshold velocity is then implemented into the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled land–atmosphere model (AM4.0/LM4.0). It is found that the climatology of dust optical depth (DOD) and total aerosol optical depth, surface PM10 dust concentrations, and the seasonal cycle of DOD are better captured over the “dust belt” (i.e., northern Africa and the Middle East) by simulations with the new wind erosion threshold than those using the default globally constant threshold. The most significant improvement is the frequency distribution of dust events, which is generally ignored in model evaluation. By using monthly rather than annual mean V(threshold), all comparisons with observations are further improved. The monthly global threshold of wind erosion can be retrieved under different spatial resolutions to match the resolution of dust models and thus can help improve the simulations of dust climatology and seasonal cycles as well as dust forecasting.

Bing Pu↗
DOE OSTI2022

Puerto Rico Demand Response Impact and Forecast Tool (PR-DRIFT) - Beta Version [Slides]

Due to high fossil fuel imports, high electricity rates, an unreliable electricity grid, and 100% renewable electricity goals, demand response can play a crucial role for the Puerto Rico electricity grid. The Puerto Rico Demand Response Impact and Forecast Tool (PR-DRIFT) is a spreadsheet-based tool in which users can estimate the potential impacts of demand response, energy efficiency, and VRE and storage adoption in Puerto Rico from 2021 through 2040. The tool includes projections for solar, wind, and battery adoption based on released RFPs and energy targets (including Act-17 2019) to generate a projected net load profile for each hour through 2040. Based on user inputs and default assumptions, the tool also projects load profile impacts of demand response and energy efficiency, and is specifically focused on highlighting projected demand response technical potential. This demand response technical potential can be used by local utilities, regulators, program administrators, or researchers to help design demand response programs for larger impact.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2017

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 9 Appendix H - Forecast Precipitation

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 11, Appendix J - Forecast Evaporation

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗