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At least 1,441 records · Page 80
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

How accurate is a machine learning-based wind speed extrapolation under a round-robin approach?

As the size of commercial wind turbines keeps increasing, having accurate ways to vertically extrapolate wind speed is essential to obtain a precise characterization of the wind resource for wind energy production. Recently, machine learning has been proposed and applied to extrapolate wind speed to hub heights. However, previous studies trained and tested the machine learning methods at the same site, giving them an unfair advantage over the conventional extrapolation techniques, which are instead more universal. Here, we use data from four sites in Oklahoma to test a round-robin validation approach for machine learning, under which we train a random forest at a site, and test it at a different site, where the model has no prior knowledge of the wind resource. We quantify how the accuracy of this technique varies with distance from the training site, and we find that it outperforms conventional techniques for wind extrapolation at all the considered spatial separations. We then assess how the accuracy of the machine-learning based approach varies when it is used to predict wind speed in a wind farm far wake. Finally, we explore as case study the performance of the random forest in extrapolating winds during a low-level jet event.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advanced Distributed Wind Turbine Controls Series: Part 1-Flatirons Campus Model Overview – Microgrids, Infrastructure Resilience, and Advanced Controls Launchpad (MIRACL)

Wind turbines are typically deployed to provide energy, reduce diesel-fuel consumption, reduce carbon emissions, and reduce costs for energy and fuel transportation. However, in addition to solely providing energy to the power system, wind turbines contain rotating masses and inverter-based controls that can enable various reliability and resilience services through advance controls. As part of the Microgrids, Infrastructure Resilience, and Advanced Controls Launchpad (MIRACL), it is demonstrated that advanced wind turbine controls can be employed to support higher contributions of wind, and to demonstrate ways that wind can play a role in supporting grid stability in islanded or grid-connected configurations. This paper documents models of various subsystem comprising a portion of NREL's Flatirons campus that will be used in three subsequent reports to demonstrate capabilities of advanced wind turbine controls. The series of reports will detail advanced capabilities of distributed wind turbines to provide support to isolated grids, distribution grids, and microgrids. We developed models to simulate a wind turbine (600 kW), solar PV (430 kW), battery energy storage system (1 MW/1MWh), a diesel generator (2 MW) and various types of loads (critical, dynamic). The model of the subsystems in MATLAB/Simulink are validated with available data from real-world components on NREL's Flatirons Campus. These validated models can be configured for various studies including four MIRACL use cases: 1) isolated grids, 2) microgrids, and 3) behind-the-meter, and 4) front-of-the-meter wind turbine deployments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Parameter estimation with maximal updated densities

A recently developed measure-theoretic framework solves a stochastic inverse problem (SIP) for models where uncertainties in model output data are predominantly due to aleatoric (i.e., irreducible) uncertainties in model inputs (i.e., parameters). The subsequent inferential target is a distribution on parameters. Another type of inverse problem is to quantify uncertainties in estimates of “true” parameter values under the assumption that such uncertainties should be reduced as more data are incorporated into the problem, i.e., the uncertainty is considered epistemic. A major contribution of this work is the formulation and solution of such a parameter identification problem (PIP) within the measure-theoretic framework developed for the SIP. The approach is novel in that it utilizes a solution to a stochastic forward problem (SFP) to update an initial density only in the parameter directions informed by the model output data. In other words, this method performs “selective regularization” only in the parameter directions not informed by data. Further, the solution is defined by a maximal updated density (MUD) point where the updated density defines the measure-theoretic solution to the PIP. Another significant contribution of this work is the full theory of existence and uniqueness of MUD points for linear maps with Gaussian distributions. Data-constructed Quantity of Interest (QoI) maps are also presented and analyzed for solving the PIP within this measure-theoretic framework as a means of reducing uncertainties in the MUD estimate. We conclude with a demonstration of the general applicability of the method on two problems involving either spatial or temporal data for estimating uncertain model parameters. The first problem utilizes spatial data from a stationary partial differential equation to produce a MUD estimate of an uncertain boundary condition. The second problem utilizes temporal data obtained from the state-of-the-art ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model to obtain a MUD estimate of uncertain wind drag coefficients for a simulated extreme weather event near the Shinnecock Inlet located in the Outer Barrier of Long Island, NY, USA.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling magnetic fields with helical solutions to Laplace’s equation

The series solution to Laplace's equation in a helical coordinate system is derived and refined using symmetry and chirality arguments. These functions and their more commonplace counterparts are used to model solenoidal magnetic fields via linear, multidimensional curve-fitting. A judicious choice of functional forms, a small number of free parameters and sparse input data can lead to highly accurate, fine-grained modeling of solenoidal magnetic fields, including helical features arising from the winding of the solenoid, with overall field accuracy at better than one part per million.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

AI-Based EMT Dynamic Model of PV Systems

Several electromagnetic transient (EMT) dynamic modeling methods are available to model systems like photovoltaic (PV) plants, wind power plants, variable-speed drives, among others. The methods include: (a) physics-based models and (b) data-driven models. The physics-based dynamic models may include high-fidelity switched system model and average-value model that both require the control algorithms included in the models. However, manufacturers typically prefer to provide black-box models to avoid disclosing proprietary. One of the solutions to prevent disclosing control algorithms is the use of data-driven dynamic EMT models of PV systems. In this paper, data-driven dynamic EMT model based on artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms are presented. The AI algorithms evaluated include convolutional neural networks, recurrent neural networks, and nonlinear auto-regressive exogenous model. Automation in generating data and training these models is also discussed in this paper. The results generated by the best AI algorithms have been observed to be greater than 95 % accurate.

Debnath, Suman↗
DOE OSTI2024

Utah FORGE Project 3-2417: Meteorological Data During 2023 Completion/Circulation

This preliminary data archive includes meteorological data recorded at the Utah FORGE facility over the period of time including the completion/cementing of well 78-16B and the initial 2023 circulation test, largely occurring in June/July/August of 2023. This information may prove useful for understanding seismic and other instrumentation responses during these activities. The meteorological station was installed June 23rd, 2023 during drilling; the circulation test occurred in mid July of 2023 (July 4-19). The included files span this period. All sensors were installed at the 16 pad and hence reflect weather state at the site. This dataset was acquired by the FOGMORE R&D project (Fiber Optic MOnitoring for Reservoir Evolution), Utah FORGE R&D Project 3-2417.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Low ozone dry deposition rates to sea ice during the MOSAiC field campaign: Implications for the Arctic boundary layer ozone budget

Dry deposition to the surface is one of the main removal pathways of tropospheric ozone (O 3 ). We quantified for the first time the impact of O 3 deposition to the Arctic sea ice on the planetary boundary layer (PBL) O 3 concentration and budget using year-round flux and concentration observations from the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) campaign and simulations with a single-column atmospheric chemistry and meteorological model (SCM). Based on eddy-covariance O 3 surface flux observations, we find a median surface resistance on the order of 20,000 s m –1 , resulting in a dry deposition velocity of approximately 0.005 cm s –1 . This surface resistance is up to an order of magnitude larger than traditionally used values in many atmospheric chemistry and transport models. The SCM is able to accurately represent the yearly cycle, with maxima above 40 ppb in the winter and minima around 15 ppb at the end of summer. However, the observed springtime ozone depletion events are not captured by the SCM. In winter, the modelled PBL O 3 budget is governed by dry deposition at the surface mostly compensated by downward turbulent transport of O 3 towards the surface. Advection, which is accounted for implicitly by nudging to reanalysis data, poses a substantial, mostly negative, contribution to the simulated PBL O 3 budget in summer. During episodes with low wind speed (<5 m s –1 ) and shallow PBL (<50 m), the 7-day mean dry deposition removal rate can reach up to 1.0 ppb h –1 . Our study highlights the importance of an accurate description of dry deposition to Arctic sea ice in models to quantify the current and future O 3 sink in the Arctic, impacting the tropospheric O 3 budget, which has been modified in the last century largely due to anthropogenic activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Search for High-energy Neutrino Emission from Galactic X-Ray Binaries with IceCube

We present the first comprehensive search for high-energy neutrino emission from high- and low-mass X-ray binaries conducted by IceCube. Galactic X-ray binaries are long-standing candidates for the source of Galactic hadronic cosmic rays and neutrinos. The compact object in these systems can be the site of cosmic-ray acceleration, and neutrinos can be produced by interactions of cosmic rays with radiation or gas, in the jet of a microquasar, in the stellar wind, or in the atmosphere of the companion star. We study X-ray binaries using 7.5 yr of IceCube data with three separate analyses. In the first, we search for periodic neutrino emission from 55 binaries in the Northern Sky with known orbital periods. In the second, the X-ray light curves of 102 binaries across the entire sky are used as templates to search for time-dependent neutrino emission. Finally, we search for time-integrated emission of neutrinos for a list of 4 notable binaries identified as microquasars. In the absence of a significant excess, we place upper limits on the neutrino flux for each hypothesis and compare our results with theoretical predictions for several binaries. In addition, we evaluate the sensitivity of the next generation neutrino telescope at the South Pole, IceCube-Gen2, and demonstrate its power to identify potential neutrino emission from these binary sources in the Galaxy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A bi-level spatiotemporal clustering approach and its application to drought extraction

We present a novel flexible bi-level spatiotemporal clustering algorithm to extract events based on their intensity and spatiotemporal structures. Our algorithm consists of using (i) a novel space-time k-means clustering to obtain spatiotemporally coherent intensity clusters, and (ii) a density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) to spatiotemporally section the intensity clusters into individual events. We discuss the development of the algorithm, the selection, tuning and meaning of the parameters within each step, as well as its validation. Finally, we apply the algorithm to a spatiotemporal drought index, standardized vapor pressure deficit drought index (SVDI), over the continental United States (US) from 1980–2021 and show that it captures historical drought events over the continental United States and their spatiotemporal extents.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using Meteorological Data to Evaluate Worldwide PV Degradation Rates

Here we automate the process to enable the creation of world maps for specific PV durability metrics. The end goal is to create a tool for the creation of world maps predicting the sensitivity of modules to degradation to inform the development and utilization of module testing standards and to provide information to module designers. TMY (Typical Meteorological Year) Data was aggregated from sites around the world to render insight into factors contributing to the degradation of solar modules. The focus of aggregating data was to create a single dataset to work with utilizing Solar Irradiance values combined with Ambient Temperature, Relative Humidity, Wind Speed and Dew-Point Temperature.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States (2023 Edition)

Estimates of the potential of renewable energy are essential for understanding how we can decarbonize our electric grid and economy. They provide key data for policymakers, land managers, and energy modelers by defining the quantity, quality, and cost of renewable resources. However, estimating renewable energy potential is challenging and requires frequent updates because of rapid advances in technology, cost reductions, and uncertainty about developable land that are due to social, regulatory, and environmental factors. Additionally, the complex processes involved in renewable energy development require regular reviews of methods and assumptions, which can also impact our understanding of renewable potential. In this, the 2023 edition of this annual report, we present new estimates of the technical potential for land-based wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) for the contiguous United States (CONUS). We also provide cost estimates for the available resources, presenting representative supply curves that can be used in downstream modeling and analysis. Additionally, we introduce the new methodologies used to estimate wind capacity, wind energy losses, transmission cost and representation, updated technology cost and design, and scenarios of siting constraints designed to help bound the uncertainty of renewable potential.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Acoustic Emission Measurement of a Wind Turbine Main Bearing

This report described acoustic emissions and temperature characteristics of a commercial main bearing in a wind turbine drivetrain. These characteristics were measured on the outer ring of the bearing by SKF DVST nodes, which are mounted on both upwind and downwind rows of the main bearing at four equally spaced circumferential locations. The measurement started in early 2018 and ends in 2020 and five-month data in 2018 winter was analyzed in this study.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Detection and Perception of Sound by Eagles and Surrogate Raptors

One overarching objective of this program of study was the accumulation of objective, scientifically valid information relating to auditory performance of bald and golden eagles that may be used to guide the development of acoustic alerting/deterrence technologies intended to discourage encroachment into wind energy air spaces. To that end, analyses aimed at the characterization of sensitivity to sound in bald and golden eagles, along with findings in the supra-threshold, dynamic frequency spaces related to response latencies and amplitudes, leads us to conclude that bald, and golden eagles navigate the same basic working auditory space, as in other known and thus far characterized members of the diurnal raptor family. Specifically, bald and golden eagles, along with other raptor species within the group, operate in an auditory space characterized by a frequency band at least four octaves wide and centered on 2 kHz, with an upper frequency limit between 6 and 10 kHz at 80 dB SPL and a lower frequency limit that almost certainly extends below 0.2 kHz. Consequently, we recommend that signal designers use these data as a guideline in efforts to design effective and efficient acoustic alerting/deterrent systems. It is important to note that signal energy broadcast outside of this frequency band at moderate levels will not contribute to the efficacy of a deterrent but will add an unnecessary fraction to the overall acoustic pollution budget. The importance of this consideration is heightened by contemporaneous concerns related to the transmission of noise broadcast by wind energy farms. In addition, based on analyses of data acquired from red-tailed hawks using the same experimental paradigm and data acquisition system, we conclude that auditory function in the red-tailed hawk is sufficiently like that observed in bald and golden eagles to permit its use as a surrogate species. Response waveforms, threshold-frequency curves, and input-output characteristics match those of eagles closely. It should be noted however, that differences in sensitivity and slightly extended high-frequency limits of hearing should be taken into account when extrapolating findings from one species to the others. Although the inclusion of behavioral tests of red-tailed hawks to acoustic stimuli was beyond the scope of this investigation, future efforts to assess response parameters like signal-type preference and habituation rate will further elucidate their suitability to serve as eagle surrogates in behavioral studies; nonetheless, the species in question are well matched with respect to basic auditory performance. A second essential objective of this program of study was the acoustic characterization of a subset of calls comprising the vocal repertoires of bald and golden eagles that may be used to supplement auditory performance findings in the effort to guide the development of acoustic alerting signals. With regard to that objective, the vocal repertoires of both bald and golden eagle species are rich and varied. While similar in spectrographic structure, distinctive differences are also clear. Generally, golden eagles produce some calls with shorter durations, and similar “sounding” calls exhibit distinctively different spectrographic patterns than those of bald eagles. Both species produce calls that contain a wide variety of nonlinear elements that operate to enhance the rich and varied nature of commonly observed vocal products. Comparison of the average power spectra of commonly observed bald and golden eagle calls with threshold-frequency curves leads to the conclusion that call energies fall within the frequency bounds of hearing. Further, the acoustic energy of calls considered in this report tend to fall into overlapping, but different frequency ranges of the acoustic sensitivity curve. This condition may encourage signal designers to vary the frequency content of acoustic deterrence signals in the field. Finally, preliminary observations relating to the tendencies and proclivities of bald eagles to attend to the acoustic landscape lead to the conclusion that eagles monitor their immediate sound environment assiduously. Individuals respond to a variety of natural and synthetic sound signals reliably and, perhaps most relevant in the context of the engineering of acoustic alerting/deterrence technologies, habituation to most sounds considered in this effort was minimal. These preliminary results, while calling for extended behavioral testing, are promising and set the stage for the exportation of behavioral studies into real world scenarios.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Measurements of the 96 Zr(α,n) cross section for astrophysics and applications

The reaction 96 Zr(α,n) plays an important role in ν-driven wind nucleosynthesis in core-collapse supernovae and is a possible avenue for medical isotope production. Here, cross section measurements were performed using the activation technique at the Edwards Accelerator Laboratory. Results were analyzed along with world data on the 96 Zr(α, n) cross section and 96 Zr(α, α) differential cross section using large-scale Hauser-Feshbach calculations. We find general agreement between our data, previous measurements, and a statistical description of the reaction. However, we find a larger cross section at low energies compared to prior experimental results, allowing for a larger astrophysical reaction rate. This may impact results of core-collapse supernova ν-driven wind nucleosynthesis calculations, but does not significantly alter prior conclusions about 99 Mo production for medical physics applications. The results from our large-scale Hauser-Feshbach calculations demonstrate that phenomenological optical potentials may yet be adequate to describe (α, n) reactions of interest for ν-driven wind nucleosynthesis, albeit with regionally-adjusted model parameters.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2021

Meteodrone data

The University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL) Meteodrone (model SSE MM-641) is a small (1.1 kg GTOW, ~40 cm across) hexcopter UAS manufactured by Meteomatics. Maximum endurance is approximately 30 min and estimated maximum operating altitude of 1500 m. Profiles can be executed at ascent/descent rates up to 10 m/s. The Meteodrone is capable of measuring temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity and GPS position time-stamped with GPS time. Temperature and dual relative humidity sensors are shielded from solar exposure by a housing with a vertically oriented air intake and hoirizontal exhaust. Sensor aspiration is driven by rotorwash across the horizontal exhaust. In its current configuration data are recorded only when executing vertical profiles. Attitude and position are updated at a data rate of 20 Hz while meteorological observations are updated at 10 Hz.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Agent-Based Modeling for the Circular Economy: Lessons Learned From Three Case Studies

The circular economy (CE) aims at decoupling human activities from resource use, creating wealth in the process. Recently, many scholars have questioned the link between increased circularity and sustainability, resulting in many methodological approaches being developed for that purpose. This presentation summarizes the insights gained from the application of agent-based modeling (ABM) to study the techno-economic and social conditions promoting circularity and sustainability of three technologies: photovoltaic (PV) modules, hard disk drives (HDDs), and wind blades. Four main categories of agents are defined in the ABM: asset owners, service providers (e.g., refurbishers), recyclers, and manufacturers. Two main CE strategies are represented: lifetime extension (through repair or reuse) and recycling. The developed models start by projecting installed capacities and end-of-life (EOL) quantities. Then the theory of planned behavior - a social psychology model explaining behavior adoption based on attitude, peer influence, and costs - is used to model the asset owners' EOL decision (i.e., landfill, recycle or extend the lifetime of the asset). Then, the quantities of assets flowing to the recycler and service provider agents and quantities of materials flowing to manufacturers are computed. Recyclers' economies of scale are dynamically modeled, and the value generated by the CE strategies for the recyclers, service providers, and manufacturers is computed within the model. When data are available, avoided greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the CE strategies adoption are calculated exogenously from the ABM simulations. Results show that with improved used PV modules warranties, the reuse CE strategy adoption increases from 1% to 23% between 2020 and 2050. Similarly, improved standards could enhance HDDs end-users trust in data-wiping - a prerequisite to reuse - leading to a 3-fold increase in the reuse rate and avoid about 5 million tons of CO2 eq by 2050. Regarding wind blades, 5-15 years lifetime extension could reduce EOL blade quantities by 13%. High costs and logistic issues prevent blades from being recycled in greater quantities. One insight from the case studies is the necessity to have mature secondary markets for reuse to be a viable option. Interestingly, PV reuse is limited by the willingness of PV owners to purchase used modules (on the demand side), while HDDs reuse is constrained by the lack of trust toward data-wiping (limiting the supply of used HDDs). The six limits of the CE concepts presented by Korhonen et al. (2018) are finally used to interpret the results. The HDD case study is an exemplary lock-in, where the first accepted practice (shredding) retains most of the market. The PV results illustrate the technical limitation to reuse, as the growing demand cannot be supplied entirely with used PV modules. The wind case study shows the relevance of clearly defining physical flows - what type of waste should wind blades be considered, how should they be transported and landfilled? - a crucial consideration that also applies to PV modules. Finally, the three case studies highlight the relevance of studying a technology's technical, economic, and market material efficiency potentials altogether and the potential benefit of coupling ABM to life cycle assessment.

agent-based modeling↗
DOE OSTI2022

System Modeling Frameworks for Wind Turbines and Plants: Review and Requirements Specifications

System modeling frameworks for wind turbines and plants are used by research groups and industry to design wind energy systems that take into account key trade-offs across performance, cost, and reliability at both the turbine and plant level. The frameworks are exercised using a variety of multi-disciplinary design, analysis and optimization (MDAO) methods. To improve inter-operability and foster collaboration, this report proposes a classification system for the frameworks along dimensions of model fidelity and scope. The classification system is first motivated with reviews the state-of-the-art in the development of software frameworks for integrated wind turbine and plant simulation. Within each major wind turbine and power plant subsystem, a matrix is developed for the disciplines used and the fidelity levels with which each discipline can be modeled. The existing frameworks are then classified according to the matrix. Next, an ontology is proposed that will allow for standardizing how data is transferred between the most common discipline-fidelity combinations used in the frameworks. A common representation of data creates the ability to 1) share system descriptions and analysis results, supporting more transparent benchmarks and comparison, and 2) integrate models together into workflows within and across organizations for improving the efficiency and performance of wind turbine and power plant design processes. Ultimately, this integration leads to better overall wind energy system designs with high performance and low costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗