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At least 1,441 records · Page 80

Interannual Lightning Variability within the TRMM LIS Dataset Using an ENSO Perspective

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) was used to investigate inter-annual variability of lightning from 1998-2014 within the 38° S – 38° N range. Previous studies have indicated that the El-Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is one significant contributor to inter-annual lightning variability, potentially the dominant mechanism on the global scale. This period of 16 years contained four warm- (El Niño), eight cold- (La Niña), and four neutral-phase ENSO years based on the oceanic Niño index. Large magnitude lightning anomalies were found during the warm phase of ENSO, with mean warm-phase anomalies of > 10 Fl (1000 km) −2 min −1 in north-central Africa and Argentina. This includes a +35 Fl (1000 km) −2 min −1 anomaly in Argentina during the 2009 El Niño. In general, large-scale anomalies of thermodynamic properties and upper-atmospheric vertical motion coincided with the lightning anomalies observed in both Africa and South America. The anomaly over north-central Africa, however, was characterized by a 6-week shift in the annual lightning maximum with the warm phase, a result of the more complex environmental response to ENSO over the Sahel. The most consistent ENSO anomalies with appreciable lightning were found in southeastern Africa, northwestern Brazil, central Mexico, and the southern Red Sea. Of these, all but the Mexico region had enhanced lightning with the cold phase and suppressed lightning with the warm phase.

Austin G. Clark↗

CFD Validation Study of a Hypersonic Cone-Slice-Flap Variable Geometry Configuration

Model validation is the process of determining the degree of accuracy between physical reality and the model. The result of model validation can either be used to improve the model through calibration or quantify the model-form uncertainty. This work focuses on providing the model-form uncertainty through an area metric for a hypersonic cone-slice-flap variable geometry configuration given uncertainty in both the simulation and experimental data. The research here compares two different turbulence models for the simulations. For a variable geometry, performing uncertainty quantification to capture the model-form uncertainty on every configuration is computationally challenging. This work lays out a procedure that can give an accurate representation of the model-form uncertainty using a small number of high-fidelity runs and many low-fidelity runs on multiple configurations. Running this comparison provides a quantifiable measurement for the accuracy of each turbulence model for this type of design. The high-fidelity CFD solver used was VULCAN-CFD and the low-fidelity results came from Cart3D. The experimental data came from the 20-Inch Mach 6 Tunnel located at NASA Langley Research Center. The present work showed that the using both the Spalart and Allamaras and Menter Shear-Stress Transport turbulence models overpredicted the drag and lift coefficient, while underpredicting the pitching moment coefficient. The model-form uncertainty estimate resulted in up to a 13.6% change in the total uncertainty for the drag coefficient, up to a 57.4% change in total uncertainty for the lift coefficient, and up to a 100% change in total uncertainty for the pitching moment coefficient.

Laura M. White↗

CFD Validation Study of a Hypersonic Cone-Slice-Flap Variable Geometry Configuration

Model validation is the process of determining the degree of accuracy between physical reality and the model. The result of model validation can either be used to improve the model through calibration or quantify the model-form uncertainty. This work focuses on providing the model-form uncertainty through an area metric for a hypersonic cone-slice-flap variable geometry configuration given uncertainty in both the simulation and experimental data. For a variable geometry, performing uncertainty quantification to capture the model-form uncertainty on every configuration is computationally challenging. This work lays out a procedure that can give an accurate representation of the model-form uncertainty using a small number of high-fidelity runs and many low-fidelity runs on multiple configurations. Running this comparison provides a quantifiable measurement for the accuracy of each turbulence model for this type of design. The high-fidelity CFD solver used was VULCAN-CFD and the low-fidelity results came from Cart3D. The experimental data came from the 20-Inch Mach 6 Tunnel located at NASA Langley Research Center. The present work showed that the turbulence simulation overpredicted the drag and lift coefficient, while underpredicting the pitching moment coefficient. The model-form uncertainty estimate resulted up to a 13.6% change in the total uncertainty for the drag coefficient, up to a 57.4% change in total uncertainty for the lift coefficient, and up to a 100% change in total uncertainty for the pitching moment coefficient.

Laura White↗

Reassessing Post-Eruption Precipitation Anomalies in the Context of Natural Variability

Several studies have reported anomalous precipitation in the years that follow large volcanic eruptions. Here we assess precipitation anomalies in post-eruption years according to their rarity in non-volcanic periods. Using global simulations of climate over the last millennium, we reevaluate the response of precipitation to volcanic aerosols in terms of novel metrics. In this approach, the magnitude of the precipitation response is contextualized through comparisons to internal variability. We also examine the connections between global and regional-scale precipitation anomalies. Finally, we assess to what extent a unique ‘fingerprint’ of eruptions can be seen in the observational precipitation record in spite of concurrent internal variability.

volcanic eruptions↗

Discovery of Strongly Variable X-Ray Polarization in the Neutron Star Low-Mass X-Ray Binary Transient XTE J1701−462

Context. After about 16 years since its first outburst, the transient neutron star low-mass X-ray binary XTE J1701−462 turned on again in September 2022, allowing for the first study of its X-ray polarimetric characteristics by a dedicated observing program with the Imaging X-ray Polarimeter Explorer (IXPE). Aims. Polarimetric studies of XTE J1701−462 have been expected to improve our understanding of accreting weakly magnetized neutron stars, in particular, the physics and the geometry of the hot inner regions close to the compact object. Methods. The IXPE data of two triggered observations were analyzed using time-resolved spectroscopic and polarimetric techniques, following the source along its Z-track of the color–color diagram. Results. During the first pointing on 2022 September 29, an average 2–8 keV polarization degree of (4.6 ± 0.4)% was measured, the highest value found up to now for this class of sources. Conversely, only a ∼0.6% average degree was obtained during the second pointing ten days later. Conclusions. The polarimetric signal appears to be strictly related to the higher energy blackbody component associated with the boundary layer (BL) emission and its reflection from the inner accretion disk, and it is as strong as 6.1% and 1.2% (> 95% significant) above 3–4 keV for the two measurements, respectively. The variable polarimetric signal is apparently related to the spectral characteristics of XTE J1701−462, which is the strongest when the source was in the horizontal branch of its Z-track and the weakest in the normal branch. These IXPE results provide new important observational constraints on the physical models and geometry of the Z-sources. Here, we discuss the possible reasons for the presence of strong and variable polarization among these sources.

XTEJ1701↗

Rapid Variability of Mrk 421 During Extreme Flaring as Seen Through the Eyes of XMM-Newton

By studying the variability of blazars across the electromagnetic spectrum, it is possible to resolve the underlying processes responsible for rapid flux increases, so-called flares. We report on an extremely bright X-ray flare in the high-peaked BL Lacertae object Markarian 421 (Mrk 421) that occurred simultaneously with enhanced γ-ray activity detected at very high energies by First G-APD Cherenkov Telescope on 2019 June 9. We triggered an observation with XMM–Newton, which observed the source quasi-continuously for 25 h. We find that the source was in the brightest state ever observed using XMM–Newton, reaching a flux of 2.8 × 10 −9 erg cm -2 s -1 over an energy range of 0.3–10 keV. We perform a spectral and timing analysis to reveal the mechanisms of particle acceleration and to search for the shortest source-intrinsic time-scales. Mrk 421 exhibits the typical harder-when-brighter behaviour throughout the observation and shows a clock-wise hysteresis pattern, which indicates that the cooling dominates over the acceleration process. While the X-ray emission in different sub-bands is highly correlated, we can exclude large time lags as the computed z-transformed discrete correlation functions are consistent with a zero lag. We find rapid variability on time-scales of 1 ks for the 0.3–10 keV band and down to 300 s in the hard X-ray band (4–10 keV). Taking these time-scales into account, we discuss different models to explain the observed X-ray flare, and find that a plasmoid-dominated magnetic reconnection process is able to describe our observation best.

acceleration of particles↗

Accelerating Continuous Variable Coherent Ising Machines Via Momentum

The Coherent Ising Machine (CIM) is a non-conventional architecture that takes inspiration from physical annealing processes to solve Ising problems heuristically. Its dynamics are naturally continuous and described by a set of ordinary differential equations that have been proven to be useful for the optimization of continuous variables nonconvex quadratic optimization problems. The dynamics of such Continuous Variable CIMs (CV-CIM) encourage optimization via optical pulses whose amplitudes are determined by the negative gradient of the objective; however, standard gradient descent is known to be trapped by local minima and hampered by poor problem conditioning. In this work, we propose to modify the CV-CIM dynamics using more sophisticated pulse injections based on tried-and-true optimization techniques such as momentum and Adam. Through numerical experiments, we show that the momentum and Adam updates can significantly speed up the CV-CIM’s convergence and improve sample diversity over the original CV-CIM dynamics. We also find that the Adam-CV-CIM’s performance is more stable as a function of feedback strength, especially on poorly conditioned instances, resulting in an algorithm that is more robust, reliable, and easily tunable. More broadly, we identify the CIM dynamical framework as a fertile opportunity for exploring the intersection of classical optimization and modern analog computing.

Ising Model↗

Influence of Atmospheric Variability on Predicted Sonic Boom Metrics

As part of the Quesst mission, NASA will fly the X-59 aircraft over selected communities to survey community responses to low sonic booms. Previously, we developed a Kalman filter method to estimate the loudness metrics experienced by each survey participant during each flight. The Kalman filter fuses acoustic measurements with predictions from PCBoom, a sonic boom propagation model. PCBoom requires vertical profiles of the temperature, humidity, and wind to propagate sonic booms through the atmosphere and predict the loudness metrics at the ground. Prior to each X-59 flight, NASA will launch weather balloons to measure the vertical atmospheric profile. However, the atmosphere changes continually with geographic location and time. The purpose of this work is to determine where and when to launch these weather balloons to minimize the uncertainty in the predicted loudness metrics caused by atmospheric variability. We analyzed the effect of atmospheric variability on the predicted Perceived Level in three communities in different climate zones in the United States. To achieve acceptable uncertainty in the Perceived Level, weather balloons should be launched from at least two different sites within the survey area within one hour of each X-59 flight.

sonic boom↗

Local and Regional Diurnal Variability of Aerosol Properties Retrieved by DSCOVR/EPIC UV Algorithm

The diurnal variability of aerosol optical depth retrieved from L1 point satellite radiance measurements closely matches surface observations. Seasonal variability of retrieved single scattering albedo is in good qualitative agreement with equivalent ground-based observations. EPIC aerosol products can be used in the qualitative and quantitative monitoring of extraordinary aerosol events resulting from wildfires and desert dust storms.

Aerosols, Absorption, Satellite retrieval↗

Variable Emittance Coatings

Variable emittance coatings (VECs) can reduce thermal control system mass and power by passively changing radiator heat rejection according to spacecraft and environment heat loads. VECs make establishing a lunar presence easier since this technology helps overcome challenges with harsh thermal environments on the lunar surface and in transit. This CIF focuses on creating testing capabilities to assess VECs from collaborators in academia and industry. Two main testing capabilities were created. First, a set of temperature dependent Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) measurement accessories were designed, fabricated, and used to measure samples received from collaborators. These accessories are capable of measuring the transmittance and reflectance of semi transparent and opaque samples. Second, a vacuum calorimetry experiment was designed and built to assess the variable heat rejection of larger coupons.

Sydney Taylor↗

Variability and Trends in Dates of the Last Spring Freeze and the First Fall Freeze over the United States

The timing of the last freeze of the spring and the first freeze in the fall have implications for agriculture and ecosystems in a region, and changes in theses dates are expected with a changing climate. In this study, indices used to represent these dates are computed from the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). The indices are analyzed over the United States to assess the climatology, trends, and variability over 1980-2023. In general, the last spring freeze date has trended earlier, and the first fall freeze date has trended later over this period; regional variations in these trends are investigated. We explore drivers of interannual variability in the timing of the last spring freeze and first fall freeze for different regions of the United States.

Natalie Thomas↗

Ocean-Land Teleconnections and Chaotic Atmospheric Variability in Climate Models, with Implications for Real-World Behavior

This study introduces a unique approach to estimating a fundamental but unmeasurable property of Nature: ρo 2 , the fraction of the variance of a given meteorological variable that is determined by boundary forcing (specifically, SSTs) as opposed to chaotic atmospheric dynamics. Here, we focus on continental monthly-averaged near-surface air temperature, or T2M. Rather than determining the fractions of SST-explained T2M variance found for a specific atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and then assuming that these fractions also represent Nature, we perform an analysis that entails: (i) evaluating a specific AGCM’s ability to capture observed variability with an infinite number of ensemble members, (ii) quantifying the degree to which different modeling systems agree on SST-land teleconnections, and (iii) combining these results into our novel estimates of ρo 2 . The derived ρo 2 fields suggest, with caveats, that AGCMs tend to overestimate the fraction of explained T2M variance (the signal-to-total variance ratio) in the Tropics.

Randal D Koster↗