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DOE OSTI2026

3D Play Fairway Analysis for Examining of Superhot Reservoir Production Scenarios

The DEEPEN (DE-risking Exploration for geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments) project was a multi-laboratory, international effort to reduce uncertainty and improve resource characterization in superhot geothermal systems. Building on this foundation, this work advances open-source tools designed to lower the exploration risk and cost of superhot geothermal projects while promoting transparency, reproducibility, and efficiency in exploration workflows. These tools are being tested at two key sites: (1) the Nesjavellir Geothermal Area in Iceland, where the Icelandic Deep Drilling Project (IDDP) will drill its third well, and (2) Newberry Volcano in Oregon, USA, where Mazama Energy will pilot the first superhot enhanced geothermal system (EGS). A major outcome is the creation of a modular, open-source Python framework for play fairway analysis (PFA) in 2D and 3D, called geoPFA. The PFA workflow has been expanded to produce pseudo conceptual models, and will soon be refined to assess reservoir components through integration with the thermo-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical (THMC) simulator TReactMech, to enable iterative coupling between PFA and THMC models, improving characterization of superhot systems. All three of the Icelandic Deep Drilling Project's production scenarios were analyzed via this framework: (1) a superhot deep injection well paired with conventional production wells at Nesjavellir, (2) a superhot deep production well at Nesjavellir, and (3) superhot enhanced geothermal system at Newberry Volcano. This analysis provides useful insights around conceptual modeling of these production scenarios, helping to inform decisions around which scenario is best suited for which types of environments.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the Economic and Environmental Impacts of Land Scarcity Under Deep Uncertainty

Abstract Land scarcity is increasing over time, driven by complex multisector dynamics. The impacts of land scarcity on the economy and environment are multi‐faceted and regional, so any action to convert land will contain inherent tradeoffs. These impacts are complicated by the deeply uncertain evolution of the various sectors influencing land scarcity. A need therefore exists to provide multi‐metric and multi‐sector assessments that are robust to myriad uncertainties. Land conservation effectively limits the supply of productive land, while biofuel consumption increases the demand and competition for that land, and how these dynamics individually and jointly propagate to economic and environmental impacts is an important open question. To address this, we adopt the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) that has representations of various important systems including the climate, macroeconomic, energy, agriculture and land, and water resources systems. Various scenarios of increased land demand (from biofuels) and decreased land supply (from conservation) under various socioeconomic scenarios drawn from the SSPs were simulated using GCAM. We find that while biofuel consumption and land conservation reduce carbon emissions, this comes at the cost of higher food prices, reduced crop production, and increased water withdrawals. Additionally, some regions experience these tradeoffs more severely than others and are more heavily impacted from the same biofuel mandate or by an additional percent of protected land. These and other findings highlight the importance of multisector modeling frameworks that capture many cross‐sector linkages, and acknowledge the important uncertainties confronting the human‐Earth system when making any analysis of land scarcity impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

An International Round-Robin Study on Thermoelectric Module Testing and Development of Standard Power Generation Modules

An international round-robin study on thermoelectric power generation modules was conducted with nine participating laboratories. Two types of commercially available bismuth telluride modules, 30 mm × 30 mm and 40 mm × 40 mm, were used. A test protocol was followed with five temperature set points from 50°C to 150°C. Graphite sheets were used as thermal interface materials with test pressure at 100 psi (0.69 MPa). The results showed large lab-to-lab variations and the key source of uncertainty for module efficiency was identified as the heat flux measurement. In the meantime, significant uncertainty was also found in maximum electrical power (P max ) measurements. As a result of the round-robin, a “standard module” with 4 × 4 legs on a 20 mm × 20 mm platform was suggested. A skutterudite module and a half-Heusler module were produced with identical geometry and 4 mm × 4 mm × 8 mm legs. All transport properties to calculate the figure-of-merit, zT, were measured from ambient temperature to 500°C. Module performance was measured by two laboratories. Two finite-element-analysis (FEA)-based models were developed independently to simulate and predict the module performance. In conclusion, the standard modules eliminated significant test uncertainties and are aimed at assisting device design and achieving more accurate performance predictions.

Round-robin↗

DOE OSTI2024

Joint Inversion of Regional Waveform, First-Motion Polarity, and Synthetic Aperture Radar Surface Displacement for the Fourth and Sixth North Korean Declared Nuclear Explosions

Here, this study analyzed the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK) fourth (DPRK4, 6 January 2016 M w 4.49) and sixth (DPRK6, 7 September 2017 M w 5.2) declared nuclear tests, employing a joint seismic and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) inversion to improve understanding of these events and enhance moment tensor (MT) inversion capabilities. The recent efforts have focused on employing seismic waveform and InSAR geodetic deformation data separately to analyze these and the previous nuclear tests (e.g., Chiang et al., 2018; Myers et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018). Building upon our previous work (Chi-Durán et al., 2021), we performed a joint regional waveform, first-motion (FM) polarity, and surface displacement inversion, which demonstrated improved source-type discrimination, a revised MT solution with reduced scalar moment uncertainty, and an independently constrained location. In this article, we build on the previous results for DPRK6 by including an analysis using a four-layered velocity model with free-surface topography to compute the near-source static deformation Green’s functions. The model consists of a 50 m basalt layer (⁠V P = 2.07 km/s, V S = 1.2 km/s⁠), a 250 m stratified volcanic deposit layer (⁠V P = 1.73 km/s, V S = 1.0 km/s⁠), a 700 m weathered granodiorite layer (⁠V P = 2.5 km/s, V S = 1.3 km/s⁠⁠), and a granodiorite half-space (⁠V P = 5.35 km/s, V S = 3.09 km/s⁠⁠). The half-space shares the velocity of the regional MDJ2 velocity model (Ford et al., 2010), which has proven effective for waveform inversion in the region. This model considers the range of reported values for various lithologies and weathering effects. Our findings show that using the layered velocity model enhances the recovery of source location and depth for both the explosions by improving fits and reducing uncertainties. The joint inversion also improves source-type discrimination and better constrains the scalar seismic moment necessary for downstream yield estimation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Fracture Analysis of Cohesive Zone Models for Modeling Residual Stress Induced Delamination in Composite Structures

A fracture study of coupon-scale composite cylinders with embedded defects was conducted with an objective to assess and validate a modeling approach using two available cohesive material models. The study included experimental and simulation evaluations of initiation of crack growth and progression. Interrupted thermal experiments used acoustic emissions monitoring to identify the onset of crack progression during each cooling interval and ultrasonic scanning provided images of defect growth. Verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) processes were performed in the assessment of the simulation predicted temperature at which crack propagation begins (quantity of interest). The Sobol sensitivity analysis identified the hoop direction elastic modulus in the carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) plies as the most influential parameter for simulations using both cohesive models, accounting for at least 70% of the variation in the temperature at crack propagation. The UQ temperature range for the Tvergaard-Hutchinson model was higher (more conservative) than the experimental acoustic measurement indicators of crack progression, while the temperature range for the Thouless-Parmigiani model enveloped the experimental data points for the primary defect size of 0.75 x 1 in. The simulations could not capture the stable crack growth indicated in the experiments. This is likely due to the models’ inability to represent anisotropic fracture toughness attributed to the structure of the orthotropic fiber weave in a woven composite laminate.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Pooling Data Improves Multimodel IDF Estimates over Median-Based IDF Estimates: Analysis over the Susquehanna and Florida

Traditional multimodel methods for estimating future changes in precipitation intensity, duration, and frequency (IDF) curves rely on mean or median of models’ IDF estimates. Such multimodel estimates are impaired by large estimation uncertainty, shadowing their efficacy in planning efforts. Here, assuming that each climate model is one representation of the underlying data generating process, i.e., the Earth system, we propose a novel extension of current methods through pooling model data: (i) evaluate performance of climate models in simulating the spatial and temporal variability of the observed annual maximum precipitation (AMP), (ii) bias-correct and pool historical and future AMP data of reasonably performing models, and (iii) compute IDF estimates in a nonstationary framework from pooled historical and future model data. Pooling enhances fitting of the extreme value distribution to the data and assumes that data from reasonably performing models represent samples from the “true” underlying data generating distribution. Through Monte Carlo simulations with synthetic data, we show that return periods derived from pooled data have smaller biases and lesser uncertainty than those derived from ensembles of individual model data. We apply this method to NA-CORDEX models to estimate changes in 24-h precipitation intensity–frequency (PIF) estimates over the Susquehanna watershed and Florida peninsula. Our approach identifies significant future changes at more stations compared to median-based PIF estimates. The analysis suggests that almost all stations over the Susquehanna and at least two-thirds of the stations over the Florida peninsula will observe significant increases in 24-h precipitation for 2–100-yr return periods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty

Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.

Environmental sciences↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the Sensitivity of Pourbaix Diagrams to Computational Protocols: Electrochemical Stability of Ni Oxides as a Case Study

Pourbaix diagrams stand as a useful tool in assessing and visualizing materials’ electrochemical stability and are widely used for electrocatalyst design. However, their reliability hinges on the accuracy of the chemical potentials of involved phases, which may bear uncertainties and can be significantly impacted by decision-making steps in the computational protocol. Here, this study introduces a robust sensitivity analysis framework, exemplified through a detailed examination of the computational Pourbaix diagram of Ni, the oxides of which are used as high-activity and cost-friendly catalysts for many electrochemical reactions. Quantities of interest derived from the Pourbaix diagram include the appearance and stability domain of the catalytically active Ni oxide phases along with the onset electrochemical potentials of phase transitions. These metrics can guide the design of operational conditions for Ni oxide electrocatalysts. We find that the employed DFT exchange-correlation functional has the most significant influence on the computed Pourbaix diagram. Uncertainties on crystal structures, along with their related ab initio energetics, are also found to affect the size of the phase stability domain. Higher-order coupling among input parameters is found to play a crucial role in influencing the appearance and distribution of Ni phases in the diagram. Our findings suggest a need to consider variations and uncertainties associated with the computational procedures on predicted Pourbaix diagrams for materials design.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cosmological constraints from CODEX galaxy clusters spectroscopically confirmed by SDSS-IV/SPIDERS DR16

ABSTRACT This paper presents a cosmological analysis based on the properties of X-ray selected clusters of galaxies from the CODEX survey which have been spectroscopically followed up within the SPIDERS programme as part of the sixteenth data release (DR16) of SDSS-IV. The cosmological sub-sample contains a total of 691 clusters over an area of 5350 deg2 with newly measured optical properties provided by a reanalysis of the CODEX source catalogue using redMaPPer and the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys (DR8). Optical richness is used as a proxy for the cluster mass, and the combination of X-ray, optical, and spectroscopic information ensures that only confirmed virialized systems are considered. Clusters are binned in observed redshift, $\tilde{z} \in \left[0.1, 0.6 \right)$ and optical richness, $\tilde{\lambda } \in \left[25, 148 \right)$ and the number of clusters in each bin is modelled as a function of cosmological and richness–mass scaling relation parameters. A high-purity sub-sample of 691 clusters is used in the analysis and best-fitting cosmological parameters are found to be $\Omega _{m_{0}}=0.34^{+0.09}_{-0.05}$ and $\sigma _8=0.73^{+0.03}_{-0.03}$. The redshift evolution of the self-calibrated richness–mass relation is poorly constrained due to the systematic uncertainties associated with the X-ray component of the selection function (which assumes a fixed X-ray luminosity–mass relation with h = 0.7 and $\Omega _{m_{0}}=0.30$). Repeating the analysis with the assumption of no redshift evolution is found to improve the consistency between both cosmological and scaling relation parameters with respect to recent galaxy cluster analyses in the literature.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

3D Play Fairway Analysis for Examining of Superhot Drilling Production Scenarios: Preprint

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Establishing performance metrics for quantitative non-targeted analysis: a demonstration using per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances

Abstract Non-targeted analysis (NTA) is an increasingly popular technique for characterizing undefined chemical analytes. Generating quantitative NTA (qNTA) concentration estimates requires the use of training data from calibration “surrogates,” which can yield diminished predictive performance relative to targeted analysis. To evaluate performance differences between targeted and qNTA approaches, we defined new metrics that convey predictive accuracy, uncertainty (using 95% inverse confidence intervals), and reliability (the extent to which confidence intervals contain true values). We calculated and examined these newly defined metrics across five quantitative approaches applied to a mixture of 29 per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). The quantitative approaches spanned a traditional targeted design using chemical-specific calibration curves to a generalizable qNTA design using bootstrap-sampled calibration values from “global” chemical surrogates. As expected, the targeted approaches performed best, with major benefits realized from matched calibration curves and internal standard correction. In comparison to the benchmark targeted approach, the most generalizable qNTA approach (using “global” surrogates) showed a decrease in accuracy by a factor of ~4, an increase in uncertainty by a factor of ~1000, and a decrease in reliability by ~5%, on average. Using “expert-selected” surrogates ( n = 3) instead of “global” surrogates ( n = 25) for qNTA yielded improvements in predictive accuracy (by ~1.5×) and uncertainty (by ~70×) but at the cost of further-reduced reliability (by ~5%). Overall, our results illustrate the utility of qNTA approaches for a subclass of emerging contaminants and present a framework on which to develop new approaches for more complex use cases. Graphical Abstract

Pu, Shirley (ORCID:0000000201223797)↗

DOE OSTI2019

Assessing an experimental approach for chemical explosive mode and heat release rate using DNS data

Obtaining information about burning characteristics and flame structures by analyzing experimental data is an important issue for understanding combustion processes and pursuing combustion modeling approaches. It has been shown that Raman/Rayleigh measurements of major species and temperature can be used to approximate the local heat release rate and the chemical explosive mode, and that these results are sufficiently accurate for a qualitative assessment of the relative importance of different heat release zones within the same overall flame structure in laminar and mildly turbulent partially premixed flames. The present study uses data from direct numerical simulation (DNS) to extend and quantify the understanding of the approximation method with respect to premixed and stratified-premixed flames with significant turbulence–chemistry interaction (high Karlovitz number). Here, the accuracy of the approximation procedure is assessed as previously applied, using just major species and temperature, as well as with the OH radical included as an additional experimentally accessible species. The accuracy of the local chemical explosive mode and the local heat release rate results from the approximation are significantly improved with OH included, yielding quantitative agreement with the DNS results. Further, a global sensitivity analysis is applied to identify the sensitivity of the heat release rate and chemical explosive mode to experimental uncertainties imprinted upon the DNS data prior to the approximation procedure.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Novel approaches in hadron spectroscopy

The last two decades have witnessed the discovery of a myriad of new and unexpected hadrons. The future holds more surprises for us, thanks to new-generation experiments. Understanding the signals and determining the properties of the states requires a parallel theoretical effort. To make full use of available and forthcoming data, a careful amplitude modeling is required, together with a sound treatment of the statistical uncertainties, and a systematic survey of the model dependencies. We review the contributions made by the Joint Physics Analysis Center to the field of hadron spectroscopy.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying electron temperature distributions from time-integrated x-ray emission spectra

K-shell x-ray emission spectroscopy is a standard tool used to diagnose the plasma conditions created in high-energy-density physics experiments. In the simplest approach, the emissivity-weighted average temperature of the plasma can be extracted by fitting an emission spectrum to a single temperature condition. It is known, however, that a range of plasma conditions can contribute to the measured spectra due to a combination of the evolution of the sample and spatial gradients. In this work, we define a parameterized model of the temperature distribution and use Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the input parameters, yielding uncertainties in the fit parameters to assess the uniqueness of the inferred temperature distribution. Here we present the analysis of time-integrated S and Fe x-ray spectroscopic data from the Orion laser facility and demonstrate that while fitting each spectral region to a single temperature yields two different temperatures, both spectra can be fit simultaneously with a single temperature distribution. We find that fitting both spectral regions together requires a maximum temperature of $1310^{+90}_{-70}$ eV with significant contributions from temperatures down to 200 eV.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Phase-based velocity extraction method for photonic Doppler velocimetry with potential higher time resolution

We present an extension of the [Takeda et al., J. Opt. Soc. Am. 72, 156 (1982)] phase extraction method to heterodyne photonic Doppler velocimetry applications. The method yields results equivalent to those obtained by the short-time Fourier transform (STFT), while offering potential improvements in time resolution. Unlike STFT, which relies on window functions, such as the Hamming window, that emphasize central data points and diminish the influence of edges, the extended Takeda method utilizes all data uniformly. This uniform treatment allows for the derivation of empirical equations that directly relate velocity error to the actual time resolution rather than to the local analysis duration. The established equation provides a useful metric for both optimizing hardware configuration and guiding data analysis. Simulation and experimental results confirm that, for a given dataset, specifying a target time resolution yields consistent velocity errors for both methods. These findings underscore the Takeda method’s advantages, particularly its potential higher time resolution and reduced computational burden, making it a valuable tool for high-throughput applications such as laser dynamic compression experiments.

Computer simulation↗

DOE OSTI2022

Direct Measurement of the Nickel Spectrum in Cosmic Rays in the Energy Range from 8.8 GeV/$\mathcal{n}$ to 240 GeV/$\mathcal{n}$ with CALET on the International Space Station

The relative abundance of cosmic ray nickel nuclei with respect to iron is by far larger than for all other transiron elements; therefore it provides a favorable opportunity for a low background measurement of its spectrum. Since nickel, as well as iron, is one of the most stable nuclei, the nickel energy spectrum and its relative abundance with respect to iron provide important information to estimate the abundances at the cosmic ray source and to model the Galactic propagation of heavy nuclei. However, only a few direct measurements of cosmic-ray nickel at energy larger than ~ 3 GeV/n are available at present in the literature, and they are affected by strong limitations in both energy reach and statistics. In this Letter, we present a measurement of the differential energy spectrum of nickel in the energy range from 8.8 to 240 GeV/n , carried out with unprecedented precision by the Calorimetric Electron Telescope (CALET) in operation on the International Space Station since 2015. The CALET instrument can identify individual nuclear species via a measurement of their electric charge with a dynamic range extending far beyond iron (up to atomic number Z = 40 ). The particle’s energy is measured by a homogeneous calorimeter (1.2 proton interaction lengths, 27 radiation lengths) preceded by a thin imaging section (3 radiation lengths) providing tracking and energy sampling. This Letter follows our previous measurement of the iron spectrum [O. Adriani et al. (CALET Collaboration), Phys. Rev. Lett. 126, 241101 (2021).], and it extends our investigation on the energy dependence of the spectral index of heavy elements. It reports the analysis of nickel data collected from November 2015 to May 2021 and a detailed assessment of the systematic uncertainties. In the region from 20 to 240 GeV/n our present data are compatible within the errors with a single power law with spectral index -2.51 ± 0.07 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Reconfigurable Planar Capacitor Sensor for Thru the Jacket Dielectric Constant Measurement of Cable Insulation

Planar capacitor sensors have been proposed to measure the aging-related dielectric constant variation of the jacket or insulation materials of cables. Although capacitor sensors have been used to monitor the aging of cable insulation by removing the jacket, through the jacket measurement of cable insulation dielectric constant variation is difficult because once the sensor is placed on the jacket it would either measure the aging of the jacket or that of the jacket and insulation together. A reconfigurable sensor along with innovative cable-specific models could be used to determine the jacket and insulation aging using the same sensor. For the proposed novel reconfigurable sensor, the electric field penetration depth is changed by activating and deactivating PIN diode switches. In one instance, the sensor measures the dielectric constant variation of the jacket, while in the next, it measures the dielectric constant variation of both the jacket and the insulation. Here, by leveraging previously developed capacitance estimation models from large-scale finite element simulations for a specific cable, these two sets of measurement data are used to evaluate the aging-related dielectric constant variation of the insulation. Experimental data from aged cable specimens are presented to demonstrate the operation of the sensor.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

High-Pressure Laminar Flame Speeds and Markstein Lengths of Syngas Flames Diluted in Carbon Dioxide and Helium

Abstract New laminar flame speed and burned-gas Markstein length data for H2–CO–O2–CO2–He mixtures have been measured from spherically expanding flames. Experiments were conducted at 10 atm and room temperature for H2:CO ratios ranging from 2:1 to 1:4 and for overall CO2 mole fractions from 0% to 30%. CO2 dilution had little effect on Markstein length, but CO2 dilutions of 10%, 20%, and 30% caused average reductions in flame speed of 47%, 73%, and 89%, respectively, regardless of H2:CO ratio. The study was designed to isolate the dilution effect of CO2 on flame speed, and a detailed analysis using the FCO2 method was used to show that the chemical-kinetic participation of CO2 was responsible for up to 20% of the reduction in flame speed. Hence, the majority (80% or more) of the reduction in flame speed due to CO2 is from the thermal effect. Accurate flame speed predictions were produced by five different chemical kinetics mechanisms for most conditions, with the slight exception of high-CO, high-CO2 mixtures. A thorough sensitivity analysis highlighted the larger effect of CO2 dilution on the important kinetics reactions than the effect of changing H2:CO. Sensitivity analysis also showed that the chain branching reaction H2O + O ⇌ OH + OH could be modified (albeit beyond its uncertainty) to achieve more accurate flame speed predictions, but also indicated that further improvement of flame speed modeling would require changes to many lesser reactions.

Engineering↗