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At least 1,441 records · Page 80

Baycal

Bayesian Model Calibration (BayCal) toolkit is a software plugin for Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) framework, arming at inversely quantifying the uncertainties associated with simulation model parameters based on available experiment data. BayCal seeks statistical inference of the uncertain input parameters that are consistent with the available measurement data or observed data. The unique feature of BayCal is the capability to be linked with RAVEN to build corresponding calibration workflows for complex multi-physics simulations. In addition to be able to use the machine learning capability of RAVEN to significantly reduce the computational cost of expensive simulation models, another distinctive feature of BayCal is the capability to deal with high-dimensional correlated model outputs, such as time series observations at multiple locations, via principal component analysis (PCA) technique.

Wang, Congjian↗

Analysis of Acoustic Modeling and Sound Propagation in Aircraft Noise Prediction

An analysis has been performed of measured and predicted aircraft noise levels around Denver International Airport. A detailed examination was made of 90 straight-out departures that yielded good measurements on multiple monitors. Predictions were made with INM 5, INM 6 and the simulation model NMSIM. Predictions were consistently lower than measurements, less so for the simulation model than for the integrated models. Lateral directivity ("installation effect") patterns were seen which are consistent with other recent measurements. Atmospheric absorption was determined to be a significant factor in the underprediction. Calculations of atmospheric attenuation were made over a full year of upper air data at seven locations across the United States. It was found that temperature/humidity effects could cause variations of up to +/-4 dB, depending on season, for the sites examined. It was concluded that local temperature and humidity should be accounted for in aircraft noise modeling.

Plotkin, Kenneth J.↗

Generation of field-aligned current in the auroral zone

Generation of a magnetic field-aligned current in the auroral zone connecting the magnetospheric and ionospheric plasmas has been studied by means of a three dimensional particle simulation model. The model is of a magnetostatic variety appropriate for a low beta plasma in which the high frequency transverse displacement current has been eliminated. The simulation model is highly elongated along the magnetic field lines in order to model a highly elongated flux tube in the auroral zone. An enhanced field-aligned current was generated by injection of a magnetospheric plasma across the auroral zone magnetic field at the center of the model. Such a plasma injection may correspond to a plasmoid injection at the geomagnetic tail associated with magnetic reconnection during a substorm or a transverse plasma flow along the low latitude magnetopause boundary layer. The results of the simulations show that the field-aligned current can be enhanced over the thermal current by a factor of 5 - 10 via such injection. Associated with the enhanced current are the electrostatic ion cyclotron waves and shear Alfven waves excited in the auroral zone.

Okuda, Hideo↗

Internal variability and forcing influence model–satellite differences in the rate of tropical tropospheric warming

Climate-model simulations exhibit approximately two times more tropical tropospheric warming than satellite observations since 1979. The causes of this difference are not fully understood and are poorly quantified. Here, we apply machine learning to relate the patterns of surface-temperature change to the forced and unforced components of tropical tropospheric warming. This approach allows us to disentangle the forced and unforced change in the model-simulated temperature of the midtroposphere (TMT). In applying the climate-model-trained machine-learning framework to observations, we estimate that external forcing has produced a tropical TMT trend of 0.25 ± 0.08 K⋅decade −1 between 1979 and 2014, but internal variability has offset this warming by 0.07 ± 0.07 K⋅decade −1 . Using the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) large ensemble, we also find that a discontinuity in the variability of prescribed biomass-burning aerosol emissions artificially enhances simulated tropical TMT change by 0.04 K⋅decade −1 . The magnitude of this aerosol-forcing bias will vary across climate models, but since the latest generation of climate models all use the same emissions dataset, the bias may systematically enhance climate-model trends over the satellite era. Our results indicate that internal variability and forcing uncertainties largely explain differences in satellite-versus-model warming and are important considerations when evaluating climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Electromagnetic Transient (EMT) Simulation Algorithm for Evaluation of Photovoltaic (PV) Generation Systems

Use of inverter-based resources facilitating renewable energy resources such as photovoltaic (PV) generation is increasing rapidly with decreasing costs and reduced emissions associated. To accommodate such rapid growth of inverter-based resources like PV systems, electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation models of both PV systems and grids are required to analyze the interaction of PVs in the grid (like the post-event analysis). In addition, the EMT simulation would help with the planning of future power grid with a large number of PVs as well as other inverter-based distributed generation systems. In this paper, the EMT simulation models of PV systems and grids are developed based on the differential algebraic equations (DAEs) representing their EMT dynamics. Furthermore, advanced simulation algorithms including numerical stiffness-based hybrid discretization, DAE clustering and aggregation, multi-order integration, and matrix splitting approaches are applied to accelerate the EMT simulation. The proposed algorithm was applied to 125 PV inverters within 52-bus medium-voltage (MV) distribution grid.

Choi, Jongchan↗

Modelling and Simulation of a Thermoelectric Heat Pump with Micro-Channel Heat Transfer

Thermoelectric heat pumps (TEHPs) have advantages of modularity and simple design for heating and cooling in some applications. Models of thermoelectric (TE) heat pumps are widely studied. Nevertheless, most existing modeling work focuses on the TE material or air-sourced TE modules. TEHP modeling, especially the relationship between modules and heat exchangers, has not been comprehensively conducted. This work presents a water-to-water TEHP modeling framework that combines Goldsmid’s approach for TE material performance, Gnielinski’s correlation for convective heat transfer, and thermal balance theory for heat exchange networks. This combined framework provides an accurate theoretical analysis of the water-to-water TEHP system. Subsequently, the framework was used to empirically determine TE material properties (electric resistivity, thermal conductivity, and Seebeck coefficient) that minimize modeling errors versus experimentally observed values from the literature. Finally, an additional set of experimental TEHP data was used to validate the model, all with relative absolute deviations of approximately 10% when predicting heating capacity and 10%–20% when forecasting cooling capacity at a 30 K temperature lift. For future work, people can further develop models of TEHPs with an air-based heat sink on one side and water channels on the other side.

Wan, Hanlong↗

Advanced modeling and simulation of research reactors using dynamic mode decomposition

Full text of publication follows. Due to the ever-increasing safety requirements, the current trend of nuclear reactor analysis is shifting towards high-fidelity multi-physics models, which have a very high computational cost and modelling complexity. As the cost of even a single model run makes it impossible to analyse the behaviour and performance of these models on large-scale commercial plants, it has become even more significant to provide suitable benchmarks to validate and test them extensively. In this sense, research reactors offer a promising solution for the initial validation of high-fidelity models, as they are significantly smaller than commercial reactors and their characteristics are well known. In particular, the reactors of the TRIGA family have been used to assess and validate models and methods for Generation-IV designs, as they have some similar features (such as the dominance of natural convection as cooling mechanism and the difficulties in performing sub-channel analysis using standard codes). Still, the computational requirements of high-fidelity models make them unsuitable for real-time analysis, even following their assessment on research reactors. In this sense, Model Order Reduction (MOR) techniques give an additional strategy to reduce the computational cost of high-fidelity models (whilst preserving sufficient accuracy). In particular, this work focuses on Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD), a non-intrusive MOR technique that aims at representing models with explicit temporal dynamics by extracting the time-varying characteristics and the governing structures based only on a set of available data, thus without needing any underlying knowledge of the governing equations. In addition, DMD also computes a low-dimensional surrogate of the dynamic matrix of the system, making it suited for stability analysis and real-time evaluations. This work focuses on the application and validation of the DMD method on the Computational Fluid-Dynamics (CFD) model TRIGA Mark II reactor, also discussing in detail the potentiality of this algorithm as an advanced modelling tool for nuclear reactor analysis. (author)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Translating dosimetry of Dibenzo[ def,p ]chrysene (DBC) and metabolites across dose and species using physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling

We report that Dibenzo[def,p]chrysene (DBC) is an environmental polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) that causes tumors in mice and has been classified as a probable human carcinogen by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Animal toxicity studies often utilize higher doses than are found in relevant human exposures. Additionally, like many PAHs, DBC requires metabolic bioactivation to form the ultimate toxicant, and species differences in DBC and DBC metabolite metabolism have been observed. To understand the implications of dose and species differences, a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model (PBPK) for DBC and major metabolites was developed in mice and humans. Metabolism parameters used in the model were obtained from experimental in vitro metabolism assays using mice and human hepatic microsomes. PBPK model simulations were evaluated against mice dosed with 15 mg/kg DBC by oral gavage and human volunteers orally microdosed with 29 ng of DBC. DBC and its primary metabolite DBC-11,12-diol were measured in blood of mice and humans, while in urine, the majority of DBC metabolites were obeserved as conjugated DBC-11,12-diol, conjugated DBC tetrols, and unconjugated DBC tetrols. The PBPK model was able to predict the time course concentrations of DBC, DBC-11,12-diol, and other DBC metabolites in blood and urine of human volunteers and mice with reasonable accuracy. Agreement between model simulations and measured pharmacokinetic data in mice and human studies demonstrate the success and versatility of our model for interspecies extrapolation and applicability for different doses. Furthermore, our simulations show that internal dose metrics used for risk assessment do not necessarily scale allometrically, and that PBPK modeling provides a reliable approach to appropriately account for interspecies differences in metabolism and physiology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A new bioenergy model that simulates the impacts of plant‐microbial interactions, soil carbon protection, and mechanistic tillage on soil carbon cycling

Abstract Advancing our predictive understanding of bioenergy systems is critical to design decision tools that can inform which feedstock to plant, where to plant it, and how to manage its production to provide both energy and ecosystem carbon (C) benefits. Here, we lay the foundation for that advancement by integrating recent developments in the science of belowground processes in shaping the C cycle into a new bioenergy model, FUN‐BioCROP (Fixation and Uptake of Nitrogen‐Bioenergy Carbon, Rhizosphere, Organisms, and Protection). We show that FUN‐BioCROP can approximate the historical trajectory of soil C dynamics as natural ecosystems were successively converted into intensive agriculture and bioenergy systems. This ability relies in part on a novel tillage representation that mechanistically models tillage as a process that increases microbial access to C. Importantly, the impacts of tillage and feedstock choice also influence FUN‐BioCROP simulations of warming responses with no‐till perennial feedstocks, miscanthus, and switchgrass, having more C that is unprotected and susceptible to warming than tilled annual feedstocks like corn–corn–soybean. However, this susceptibility to warming is balanced by a greater potential for increases in belowground C allocation to enhance soil C stocks in perennial systems. Collectively, our model results highlight the importance of belowground processes in evaluating the ecosystem C benefits of bioenergy production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Effect of Internal Structure on Warpage in a Large-Scale Additive Manufacturing Process With Bio-Derived Composites

Extrusion-based large-format additive manufacturing (LFAM) often results in unintended deformation and failures due to thermal residual stress between layers. This LFAM involves a hot molten polymer deposited on a previously deposited and cooled layer, generating a temperature mismatch between the layers. The temperature discrepancy causes a thermal contraction mismatch, generating thermal residual stress. Due to the residual stress, printed structures experience warpage and delamination Therefore, understanding the heat distribution behavior is essential to preventing undesired deformation and failures. The goal of this study is to investigate the effect of infill patterns on heat distribution and deformation in an LFAM system. Wood fiber-reinforced polylactic acid was used as a sustainable and low-cost reinforcement material. A numerical model was developed to predict the temperature and deformation field with thermo-mechanical properties, which were measured by a dynamic mechanical analysis and a thermal expansion test. Simulations were performed on a box geometry with three different infill patterns. The simulation model was verified with temperature data gathered from an infrared camera. The results show good agreement between predicted and measured temperature profiles. The developed simulation model was applied to a roof tray with different infill patterns for a case study. We found that the different thermal mass distributions resulting from the various infill patterns affected the heat distribution and deformation. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the thermal and mechanical behavior of LFAM.

Jo, Eonyeon↗

Modeling and Simulation of Vehicle Dynamics on the Surface of Phobos

In this paper we analyze the dynamics of a spacecraft in proximity of Phobos by developing the equations of motion of a test mass in the Phobos rotating frame using a model based on circularly-restricted three body problem, and by analyzing the dynamics of a ATHLETE hopper vehicle interacting with the soil under different soil-interaction conditions. The main conclusion of the numerical studies is that the system response is dominated by the stiffness and damping parameters of the leg springs, with the soil characteristics having a much smaller effect. The system simulations identify ranges of parameters for which the vehicle emerges stably (relying only on the passive viscoelastic damper at each leg) or unstably (needing active attitude control) from the hop. The implication is that further experimental and possibly computational modeling work, as well as site characterization (from precursor missions) will be necessary to obtain validated performance models.

soil-structure interaction↗

AeroMACS C-Band Interference Modeling and Simulation Results

A new C-band (5091-5150 MHz) airport communications system designated as Aeronautical Mobile Airport Communications System (AeroMACS) is being planned under the Federal Aviation Administration s NextGen program. It is necessary to establish practical limits on AeroMACS transmission power from airports so that the threshold of interference into the Mobile Satellite Service (Globalstar) feeder uplinks is not exceeded. To help provide guidelines for these limits, interference models have been created with the commercial software Visualyse Professional. In this presentation, simulation results were shown for the aggregate interference power at low earth orbit from AeroMACS transmitters at each of up to 757 airports in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and the surrounding area. Both omni-directional and sectoral antenna configurations were modeled. Effects of antenna height, beamwidth, and tilt were presented.

Wilson, Jeffrey↗

An Observationally Constrained Evaluation of the Oxidative Capacity in the Tropical Western Pacific Troposphere

Hydroxyl radical (OH) is the main daytime oxidant in the troposphere and determines the atmospheric lifetimes of many compounds. We use aircraft measurements of O3, H2O, NO, and other species from the Convective Transport of Active Species in the Tropics (CONTRAST) field campaign, which occurred in the tropical western Pacific (TWP) during January-February 2014, to constrain a photochemical box model and estimate concentrations of OH throughout the troposphere. We find that tropospheric column OH (OHCOL) inferred from CONTRAST observations is 12 to 40% higher than found in chemical transport models (CTMs), including CAM-chem-SD run with 2014 meteorology as well as eight models that participated in POLMIP (2008 meteorology). Part of this discrepancy is due to a clear-sky sampling bias that affects CONTRAST observations; accounting for this bias and also for a small difference in chemical mechanism results in our empirically based value of OHCOL being 0 to 20% larger than found within global models. While these global models simulate observed O3 reasonably well, they underestimate NOx (NO +NO2) by a factor of 2, resulting in OHCOL approx.30% lower than box model simulations constrained by observed NO. Underestimations by CTMs of observed CH3CHO throughout the troposphere and of HCHO in the upper troposphere further contribute to differences between our constrained estimates of OH and those calculated by CTMs. Finally, our calculations do not support the prior suggestion of the existence of a tropospheric OH minimum in the TWP, because during January-February 2014 observed levels of O3 and NO were considerably larger than previously reported values in the TWP.

Hydroxyl radical↗

Packing and flow particle simulations

Granular material is present across natural and industrial processes on Earth and other planets. Granular particles show up in space exploration (lunar regolith), avalanches (boulders), food (coffee), construction (concrete powder) and manufacturing (additive manufacturing powder, battery slurries). Important phenomena emerge from large collections of granular particles. The size scales of the particles in granular material, 10 μm diameter or larger, makes particle-based simulations a tractable computational method. This seminar will present the packing and flow of granular matter using particle-based discrete element modeling simulations. Particles modeled with rotational friction only require as few as 2.6 contacts for mechanical stability, as opposed to 6 contacts for frictionless particles. Optimal parameters for in-space manufacturing particulate material are identified. Specifically, the maximum density and contacts occurs for a large-to-small particle volume ratio of 0.265. Stress and contact fabric fluctuations of flowing dry granular matter have power-law scaling with strain rate, and a kink. The pressure-dependent slope change kink could identify the transition between slower, quasistatic and faster, inertial flows.

granular↗

Acquisition of the QPSK demodulator in the presence of interference

The acquisition behavior of the tracking and data relay satellite system (TDRSS) receiver (a quadrative phase-shift keying (QPSK) demodulator using a dither lock detector) in the presence of interference from another user has been analyzed using a simulation model. The demodulator is composed of an automatic gain control, a QPSK Costas loop, a frequency sweep unit, lock test units, and a control unit. The simulation model has been tested for the following variables: signal and interference Doppler frequencies and phase offsets (with respect to initial voltage control oscillator setup), signal-to-interference ratio (SIR), and signal I/Q power ratio. The simulation results are discussed.

Ghazvinian, Farzad↗

MPEX AI Digital Twins

All magnetically confined plasma fusion power plant concepts (Tokamak, Spherical Tokamak, Stellarator, Mirror, ...) must exhaust the heat and plasma from the core confinement region to the material walls. The primary channel for this exhaust is through a plasma divertor which directs plasma along open magnetic field lines to a material target. The Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment (MPEX) illustrated in Figure 1, is a high-power, steady-state linear plasma device designed to produce the plasma material interaction (PMI) conditions of the divertor of future magnetic confinement fusion power plants: energy flux 20MW/m 2 , ion fluence 1031/m 2 , pulse duration 106 sec. These goals of plasma exposure in MPEX are well beyond those achieved in magnetic fusion experimental devices. Successfully achieving these high power steady state conditions for long pulses requires operational control of the heating and particle sources and the plasma flux to the walls and target. The MPEX AI Hot Spot Controller, proposed in this project, will help achieve the operational milestones of MPEX. The MPEX device will begin commissioning at the end of FY26. A smaller proto-MPEX was operated for 14,666 plasma discharges and will resume operation in September of 2025 as proto-MPEX-lite, with reduced capability, to test a new window for the Helicon plasma source. The proto-MPEX data has undergone surrogate modeling with machine learning methods (R. Archibald, 2022 IEEE International Conference on Big Data). This proto-MPEX data will be used to begin development of the AI digital twins described in this white paper. The scientific mission of MPEX is to qualify materials of different composition for use in the high energy and plasma flux conditions of a fusion power plant. The materials exposed in MPEX will in some cases be exposed to high neutron fluxes at other ORNL facilities to measure the changes to their PMI properties. The targets exposed in MPEX will be transported under vacuum to a Surface Analysis Station (SAS). The SAS will be equipped with the following diagnostics: Focused Ion Beam (FIB) for trench milling, 100-400 angstrom resolution scanning electron microscope (SEM), surface mapping x-ray spectrometer, high resolution camera, and a future upgrade to a laser induced breakdown spectroscopy quadruple mass spectrometer (LIBS-QMS). The MPEX experiments will generate diverse pre- and post-exposure measurement data of detailed material properties down to the crystal grain level in 3D for post-exposure assessment of PMI damage (e.g. cracking, melting, erosion and redeposition of the material). Physics models for the PMI, and how the material composition and manufacturing impact its performance under high energy plasma exposure, need to be validated with MPEX data to guide the selection of new candidate materials. Our vision for the MPEX AI Digital Twins project is to supply experimental and physics model simulation data to train Artificial Intelligence (AI) models for data processing, analysis, operational control, PMI and materials simulation to maximize the scientific output of the MPEX device. Ultimately, an AI digital twin of MPEX material assessment metrics for tested and synthetic material types with simulated PMI will be trained by the AI Modeling Teams on the experimental and physics simulation data submitted to the American Science Cloud by this project. A purely empirical search for the best material is inefficient given the finite number of samples that can be tested on MPEX. In order to expand the material properties database for training the MPEX Material Assessment AI Digital Twin, and to gain physics understanding of the PMI processes, physics models of the material properties and PMI processes are required. The physics simulations provide detailed simulation data, like impact angles for plasma ions, sputtering yields, transport of the ionized sputtered target material in the plasma, and redeposition locations. This simulation data expands the measurement data for deeper physics understanding. The experimental data is essential to validate the PMI and material structure simulation models. The validated models can then be used to generate new simulation data of MPEX material assessments for synthetic material compositions that have not been exposed in MPEX. These predictive simulations, plus the whole experimental dataset, will be used to train the MPEX Material Assessment AI Digital Twin allowing a rapid generative AI search for new materials with reduced PMI damage by interpolating the domain of the training set. These new optimum materials can be simulated with the physics codes and/or tested in MPEX. The ability of AI neural networks to interpolate multi-dimensional parameter spaces and generate virtual data is exploited for a more efficient search for optimum materials. The advent of the Transformational AI Models Consortium (TAIMC) is an opportunity to engage with state of the art private and public AI developers to achieve the goals of the AI digital twins and AI accelerated physics models proposed in this project. Our partners at ORNL from the Advance Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) organization will collaborate in accelerating the integrated plasma material interaction simulation framework. This simulation framework will provide a platform for generating simulation data across a range of physical fidelities, including hybrid methods that produce multi-fidelity results. This data will be leveraged for AI model development, both for generation of surrogates and the automation of simulation campaigns. A part of the research below will include collaborative efforts with the TAIMC to (i) adapt data storage approaches to ensure AI-readiness, (ii) provide a protypical exemplar to inform and exercise constructed workflows, and (iii) generate and share data, using the TAIMC unified AI data standard, for foundational models that will be trained from multiple sources across the DOE complex. We will also collaborate with the TAIMC, as well as the planned AI modeling teams, to develop approaches for reducing the cost of data generation. These include tailored multi-fidelity approaches as well as fine-tuning strategies to augment general, large-scale foundational models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Mathematical Simulation of Flight Maneuvers

Mathematical model simulates response of spin-stabilized spacecraft to commanded thruster pulses, using set of equations based on known inertial properties of vehicle and previously-determined thrustor performance. Model used to generate sequence of thrustor commands to accomplish specified maneuver.

Frauenholz, R. B.↗

Deep Learning Parameterization of Vertical Wind Velocity Variability via Constrained Adversarial Training

Atmospheric models with typical resolution in the tenths of kilometers cannot resolve the dynamics of air parcel ascent, which varies on scales ranging from tens to hundreds of meters. Small-scale wind fluctuations are thus characterized by a subgrid distribution of vertical wind velocity W with standard deviation σ W . The parameterization of σ W is fundamental to the representation of aerosol–cloud interactions, yet it is poorly constrained. Using a novel deep learning technique, this work develops a new parameterization for σ W merging data from global storm-resolving model simulations, high-frequency retrievals of W , and climate reanalysis products. The parameterization reproduces the observed statistics of σ W and leverages learned physical relations from the model simulations to guide extrapolation beyond the observed domain. Incorporating observational data during the training phase was found to be critical for its performance. The parameterization can be applied online within large-scale atmospheric models, or offline using output from weather forecasting and reanalysis products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗