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DOE OSTI2020

Concrete Structure Health Monitoring Using Vibro-acoustic Testing and Machine Learning

Assessment and management of aging concrete structures in nuclear power plants require a more systematic approach than simple reliance on margins of safety in existing codes. Research is required to deploy online monitoring capability to assess the health of concrete structures in nuclear power plants and perform predictive analytics based on heterogeneous measurements, in order to reduce the operation and maintenance costs. The research effort described in this report focuses on the health monitoring of concrete slabs containing reactive aggregates using the vibro-acoustic modulation (VAM) technique and predictive modeling. The research is developing an approach to enable detection, localization, and estimation of the extent of degradation in concrete slabs due to alkali-silica reaction (ASR). The project outcomes are generic and extendable to other degradation modes in concrete. A concrete slab without reinforcements was cast at Vanderbilt University and cured in aggressive conditions to accelerate ASR degradation. In this report, we develop a methodology for the automation of VAM testing, and the construction of machine learning models to facilitate damage localization in concrete structures. We investigate how machine learning models based on physics simulation data can be effectively utilized for damage localization (damage location and depth) and estimation in a concrete slab specimen. Our study indicates that these models could potentially support damage localization and estimation for NPP structures.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS2005

Experimental Development and Evaluation of Pneumatic Powered-Lift Super-STOL Aircraft

The powered-lift Channel Wing concept has been combined with pneumatic Circulation Control aerodynamic and propulsive technology to generate a Pneumatic Channel Wing (PCW) configuration intended to have Super-STOL or VSTOL capability while eliminating many of the operational problem areas of the original Channel Wing vehicle. Wind-tunnel development and evaluations of a PCW powered model conducted at Georgia Tech Research Institute (GTRI) have shown substantial lift capabilities for the blown configuration (CL values of 10 to 11). Variation in blowing of the channel was shown to be more efficient than variation in propeller thrust in terms of lift generation. Also revealed was the ability to operate unstalled at very high angles of attack of 40 deg - 45 deg, or to achieve very high lift at much lower angle of attack to increase visibility and controllability. In order to provide greater flexibility in Super-STOL takeoffs and landings, the blown model also displayed the ability to interchange thrust and drag by varying blowing without any moving parts. A preliminary design study of this pneumatic vehicle based on the two technologies integrated into a simple Pneumatic Channel Wing configuration showed very strong Super-STOL potential. This paper presents these experimental results, discusses variations in the configuration geometry under development, and addresses additional considerations to extend this integrated technology to advanced design studies of PCW-type vehicles.

Englar, Robert J.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Subgrid Combustion Modeling for the Next Generation National Combustion Code

In the first year of this research, a subgrid turbulent mixing and combustion methodology developed earlier at Georgia Tech has been provided to researchers at NASA/GRC for incorporation into the next generation National Combustion Code (called NCCLES hereafter). A key feature of this approach is that scalar mixing and combustion processes are simulated within the LES grid using a stochastic 1D model. The subgrid simulation approach recovers locally molecular diffusion and reaction kinetics exactly without requiring closure and thus, provides an attractive feature to simulate complex, highly turbulent reacting flows of interest. Data acquisition algorithms and statistical analysis strategies and routines to analyze NCCLES results have also been provided to NASA/GRC. The overall goal of this research is to systematically develop and implement LES capability into the current NCC. For this purpose, issues regarding initialization and running LES are also addressed in the collaborative effort. In parallel to this technology transfer effort (that is continuously on going), research has also been underway at Georgia Tech to enhance the LES capability to tackle more complex flows. In particular, subgrid scalar mixing and combustion method has been evaluated in three distinctly different flow field in order to demonstrate its generality: (a) Flame-Turbulence Interactions using premixed combustion, (b) Spatially evolving supersonic mixing layers, and (c) Temporal single and two-phase mixing layers. The configurations chosen are such that they can be implemented in NCCLES and used to evaluate the ability of the new code. Future development and validation will be in spray combustion in gas turbine engine and supersonic scalar mixing.

Menon, Suresh↗

NASA NTRS1993

Task Analysis of Shuttle Entry and Landing Activities

The Task Analysis of Shuttle Entry and Landing (E/L) Activities documents all tasks required to land the Orbiter following an STS mission. In addition to analysis of tasks performed, task conditions are described, including estimated time for completion, altitude, relative velocity, normal and lateral acceleration, location of controls operated or monitored, and level of g's experienced. This analysis precedes further investigations into potential effects of zero g on piloting capabilities for landing the Orbiter following long-duration missions. This includes, but is not limited to, researching the effects of extended duration missions on piloting capabilities. Four primary constraints of the analysis must be clarified: (1) the analysis depicts E/L in a static manner--the actual process is dynamic; (2) the task analysis was limited to a paper analysis, since it was not feasible to conduct research in the actual setting (i.e., observing or filming duration an actual E/L); (3) the tasks included are those required for E/L during nominal, daylight conditions; and (4) certain E/L tasks will vary according to the flying style of each commander.

Holland, Albert W.↗

NASA NTRS1999

New Generation Lidar Technology and Applications

Lidar has been a tool for atmospheric research for several decades. Until recently routine operational use of lidar was not known. Problems have involved a lack of appropriate technology rather than a lack of applications. Within the last few years, lidar based on a new generation of solid state lasers and detectors have changed the situation. Operational applications for cloud and aerosol research applications are now well established. In these research applications, the direct height profiling capability of lidar is typically an adjunct to other types of sensing, both passive and active. Compact eye safe lidar with the sensitivity for ground based monitoring of all significant cloud and aerosol structure and the reliability to operate full time for several years is now in routine use. The approach is known as micro pulse lidar (MPL). For MPL the laser pulse repetition rate is in the kilohertz range and the pulse energies are in the micro-Joule range. The low pulse energy permits the systems to be eye safe and reliable with solid state lasers. A number of MPL systems have been deployed since 1992 at atmospheric research sites at a variety of global locations. Accurate monitoring of cloud and aerosol vertical distribution is a critical measurement for atmospheric radiation. An airborne application of lidar cloud and aerosol profiling is retrievals of parameters from combined lidar and passive sensing involving visible, infrared and microwave frequencies. A lidar based on a large pulse, solid state diode pumped ND:YAG laser has been deployed on the NASA ER-2 high altitude research aircraft along with multi-spectral visible/IR and microwave imaging radiometers since 1993. The system has shown high reliability in an extensive series of experimental projects for cloud remote sensing. The retrieval of cirrus radiation parameters is an effective application for combined lidar and passive sensing. An approved NASA mission will soon begin long term lidar observation of atmospheric structure from space. The Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) of the Earth Observing System is scheduled for deployment in the 2001 time frame. GLAS is both a cloud and aerosol lidar and a surface altimeter, principally for monitoring of polar ice sheets. The GLAS instrument is based on all solid state lasers operating at 40 Hz and high efficiency, solid state detectors. The design lifetime is three to five years. Data from the GLAS mission is expected to revolutionize some aspects of our understanding of the global distribution of cloud and aerosols for global climate prediction.

Spinhirne, James D.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Repeatability of ice shapes in the NASA Lewis icing research tunnel

Tests were conducted in the Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) at the NASA Lewis Research Center to document the current capability of the IRT, focused mainly on the repeatability of the ice shape over a range of icing conditions. Measurements of drag increase due to the ice accretion were also made to document the repeatability of drag. The repeatability of the ice shape was very good at low temperatures, but only fair at near freezing temperatures. In general, drag data shows good repeatability.

SHAPE REPEATABILITY↗

NASA NTRS2021

VESIcal Part I: An open-source thermodynamic model engine for mixed volatile (H2O-CO2) solubility in silicate melts

Thermodynamics has been fundamental to the interpretation of geologic data and modeling of geologic systems for decades. However, more recent advancements in computational capabilities and a marked increase in researchers’ accessibility to computing tools has outpaced the functionality and extensibility of currently available modeling tools. Here we present VESIcal (Volatile Equilibria and Saturation Identification calculator): the first comprehensive modeling tool for H 2 O, CO 2 , and mixed (H 2 O-CO 2 ) solubility in silicate melts that: a) allows users access to seven commonly used models, plus easy inter-comparison between models; b) provides universal functionality for all models (e.g., functions for calculating saturation pressures, degassing paths, etc.); c) can process large datasets (1,000’s of samples) automatically; d) can output computed data into an excel spreadsheet for simple post-modeling analysis; e) integrates advanced plotting capabilities directly within the tool; and f) provides all of these within the framework of a python library, making the tool extensible by the user and allowing any of the model functions to be incorporated into any other code capable of calling python. The tool is presented within this manuscript, which is a Jupyter notebook containing worked examples accessible to python users with a range of skill levels. The basic functions of VESIcal can also be access via a web app (https://vesical.anvil.app). The VESIcal python library is open-source and available for download at https://github.com/kaylai/VESIcal.

K. Iacovino↗

NASA NTRS2007

Emphasizing Spectrum Management for Sustainable Development Research and Applications in Disaster Management

NASA's spaceborne Earth and Heliospheric Observatories and airborne sensors provide a plethora of measurements. These measurements are used in science research to understand the climatology of our home planet and the solar fluxes and cycle of the only star in our solar system 'Sun' which is critical driver for the retention of life on Earth. Specifically, these measurements help us to understand the water and energy cycle, the carbon cycle, weather and climate, atmospheric chemistry, solar variability, and solid Earth and interior to feed into sophisticated mathematical models to analyze and predict the Earth's behavior as an integrated system. The main thrust of this research is on improving the prediction capability in the areas of weather, long term climate and solid Earth processes, and further help the humanity and future generations in terms of societal benefits in managing natural disasters, sustainability issues and many more. This work is further linked with our contributions in the Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS) Specifically, the data and knowledge resulting from the Earth observing systems and analytical models of the Earth can be made available for assimilation into decision support systems to serve society for disaster management. Through partnerships with national and international agencies and organizations, NASA's Science Mission Directorate's, Applied Sciences Program contributes to benchmarking practical uses of observations and predictions from Earth science remote sensing systems research. The objective is to establish innovative solutions using Earth observations and science information to provide decision support that can be adapted in applications of national and international priority. We along with the international community will continue this critical field of investigation by using our existing and future sensors from space, airborne and insitue environment. In our quest to expanding our knowledge, there will be a need for deploying additional sensors to obtain high spatial, temporal and spectral resolution measurements. These sensors operate in multiple spectral band ranging from UV, visible, infrared, microwave and radio frequency ranges. Of a particular concern is the microwave frequency bands which play a key role in land, ocean, moisture sensing. This is because of a growing commercial demand in the area of high speed broadband communication all over the world, the electronic manufacturers are looking into high frequency microwave spectral bands. This may present a risk to the remote sensing sensors because of additional sources of noise that can impair the highly sensitive passive remote sensing instruments.

Ambrose, Stephen↗

NASA NTRS2015

Advancing Test Capabilities at NASA Wind Tunnels

NASA maintains twelve major wind tunnels at three field centers capable of providing flows at 0.1 M 10 and unit Reynolds numbers up to 45106m. The maintenance and enhancement of these facilities is handled through a unified management structure under NASAs Aeronautics and Evaluation and Test Capability (AETC) project. The AETC facilities are; the 11x11 transonic and 9x7 supersonic wind tunnels at NASA Ames; the 10x10 and 8x6 supersonic wind tunnels, 9x15 low speed tunnel, Icing Research Tunnel, and Propulsion Simulator Laboratory, all at NASA Glenn; and the National Transonic Facility, Transonic Dynamics Tunnel, LAL aerothermodynamics laboratory, 8 High Temperature Tunnel, and 14x22 low speed tunnel, all at NASA Langley. This presentation describes the primary AETC facilities and their current capabilities, as well as improvements which are planned over the next five years. These improvements fall into three categories. The first are operations and maintenance improvements designed to increase the efficiency and reliability of the wind tunnels. These include new (possibly composite) fan blades at several facilities, new temperature control systems, and new and much more capable facility data systems. The second category of improvements are facility capability advancements. These include significant improvements to optical access in wind tunnel test sections at Ames, improvements to test section acoustics at Glenn and Langley, the development of a Supercooled Large Droplet capability for icing research, and the development of an icing capability for large engine testing. The final category of improvements consists of test technology enhancements which provide value across multiple facilities. These include projects to increase balance accuracy, provide NIST-traceable calibration characterization for wind tunnels, and to advance optical instruments for Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) validation. Taken as a whole, these individual projects provide significant enhancements to NASA capabilities in ground-based testing. They ensure that these wind tunnels will provide accurate and relevant experimental data for years to come, supporting both NASAs mission and the missions of our government and industry customers.

wind tunnel testing↗

NASA NTRS1988

Accomplishments at NASA Langley Research Center in rotorcraft aerodynamics technology

In recent years, the development of aerodynamic technology for rotorcraft has continued successfully at NASA LaRC. Though the NASA Langley Research Center is not the lead NASA center in this area, the activity was continued due to facilities and individual capabilities which are recognized as contributing to helicopter research needs of industry and government. Noteworthy accomplishments which contribute to advancing the state of rotorcraft technology in the areas of rotor design, airfoil research, rotor aerodynamics, and rotor/fuselage interaction aerodynamics are described. Rotor designs were defined for current helicopters and evaluated in wind tunnel testing. These designs have incorporated advanced airfoils defined analytically and also proven in wind tunnel tests. A laser velocimetry system has become a productive tool for experimental definition of rotor inflow/wake and is providing data for rotorcraft aerodynamic code validation.

Wilson, John C.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Budget estimates: Fiscal year 1994. Volume 1: Agency summary

The NASA FY 1994 budget request of $15,265 million concentrates on (1) investing in the development of new technologies including a particularly aggressive program in aeronautical technology to improve the competitive position of the United States, through shared involvement with industry and other government agencies; (2) continuing the nation's premier program of space exploration, to expand our knowledge of the solar system and the universe as well as the earth; and (3) providing safe and assured access to space using both the space shuttle and expendable launch vehicles. Budget estimates are presented for (1) research and development, including space station, space transportation capability development, space science and applications programs, space science, life and microgravity sciences and applications, mission to planet earth, space research and technology, commercial programs, aeronautics technology programs, safety and mission quality, academic programs, and tracking and data advanced systems; and (2) space operations, including space transportation programs, launch services, and space communications.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2024

Why the US Needs an Enduring Plutonium Critical Assembly

Jezebel (operated from 1954-1977) has been the primary experiment for fast 239 Pu nuclear data validation for the last 70 years. Validation has included not only k eff , but also spectral indicies, Rossi-α, reactivity coefficients, and neutron leakage spectra. While this has been incredibly valuable to the community, there are three major issues. The first issue is that documentation on many of these experiments were lacking, leading to large uncertainties or (even worse) incorrect assumptions. The second issue is that while there have been many advances in research, there is no way to test those new advances today. The last issue is that since the assembly only operated for 23 years (and at time when 30 other critical assemblies were operating at the same facility and nuclear weapons testing was occurring), there were limited opportunities to observe how any system parameters changed as a function of time. Note that this work is not suggesting that a "Jezebel re placement" used for a limited experiment campaign would have great value. A new enduring (100 year target) plutonium (Pu) assembly with simple geometry and low uncertainties, however, would be extremely valuable. Such a capability would have a transformative impact on many research areas including nuclear data validation, analytical methods validation, dosimetry, reactor kinetics, and materials. The need for a new plutonium assembly is not new: it has been in the DOE Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP) Mission and Vision for over 10 years and was also the top priority established at the 2022 National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC) Futures meeting. This work will discuss how such a new capability would help ensure that the US retains international leadership in plutonium research. Last, a brief overview of Lilith, a project aimed to design a new enduring plutonium assembly for operation at the NCERC will be given.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS2012

Linked Open Data in the Global Change Information System (GCIS)

The U.S. Global Change Research Program (http://globalchange.gov) coordinates and integrates federal research on changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP is developing a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will centralize access to data and information related to global change across the U.S. federal government. The first implementation will focus on the 2013 National Climate Assessment (NCA) . (http://assessment.globalchange.gov) The NCA integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the USGCRP; analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. The NCA has received over 500 distinct technical inputs to the process, many of which are reports distilling and synthesizing even more information, coming from thousands of individuals around the federal, state and local governments, academic institutions and non-governmental organizations. The GCIS will present a web-based version of the NCA including annotations linking the findings and content of the NCA with the scientific research, datasets, models, observations, etc. that led to its conclusions. It will use semantic tagging and a linked data approach, assigning globally unique, persistent, resolvable identifiers to all of the related entities and capturing and presenting the relationships between them, both internally and referencing out to other linked data sources and back to agency data centers. The developing W3C PROV Data Model and ontology will be used to capture the provenance trail and present it in both human readable web pages and machine readable formats such as RDF and SPARQL. This will improve visibility into the assessment process, increase understanding and reproducibility, and ultimately increase credibility and trust of the resulting report. Building on the foundation of the NCA, longer term plans for the GCIS include extending these capabilities throughout the U.S. Global Change Research Program, centralizing access to global change data and information across the thirteen agencies that comprise the program.

Tilmes, Curt A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Near Earth Asteroid Medical Conditions List

Purpose: The Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) element is one of six elements within NASA s Human Research Program (HRP) and is responsible for addressing the risk of "the inability to adequately recognize or treat an ill or injured crewmember" for exploration-class missions. The Near Earth Asteroid (NEA) Medical Conditions List, constructed by ExMC, is the first step in addressing the above-mentioned risk for the 13-month long NEA mission. The NEA mission is being designed by NASA's Human Space Flight Architecture Team (HAT). The purpose of the conditions list is to serve as an evidence-based foundation for determining which medical conditions could affect a crewmember during the NEA mission, which of those conditions would be of concern and require treatment, and for which conditions a gap in knowledge or technology development exists. This information is used to focus research efforts and technology development to ensure that the appropriate medical capabilities are available for exploration-class missions. Scope and Approach: The NEA Medical Conditions List is part of a broader Space Medicine Exploration Medical Conditions List (SMEMCL), which incorporates various exploration-class design reference missions (DRMs). The conditions list contains 85 medical conditions which could occur during space flight and which are derived from several sources: Long-Term Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH) in-flight occurrence data, The Space Shuttle (STS) Medical Checklist, The International Space Station (ISS) Medical Checklist, and subject matter expert opinion. Each medical condition listed has been assigned a clinical priority and a clinical priority rationale based on incidence, consequence, and mitigation capability. Implementation: The conditions list is a "living document" and as such, new conditions can be added to the list, and the priority of conditions on the list can be adjusted as the DRM changes, and as screening, diagnosis, or treatment capabilities change. The NEA medical conditions list was used recently as the basis for identifying gaps in in-flight medical evaluation (screening) capabilities. Learning Objectives: The audience will become familiar with the approach taken by NASA's Exploration Medical Capability element in addressing the risk of inability to recognize and treat medical conditions in the setting of a Near Earth Asteroid mission. Which one of the following statements is incorrect? a) The Near Earth Asteroid (NEA) medical conditions list includes 85 medical conditions which could occur during space flight. b) Each condition on the NEA medical conditions list has been assigned a clinical priority and a clinical priority rationale. c) The NEA medical conditions list targets a mission to Mars. d) The NEA medical conditions list should be viewed as a "living document" where new conditions can be added and clinical priorities adjusted to address changes in the design reference mission or medical capabilities. The incorrect answer is c). The NEA medical conditions list targets a mission to a Near Earth Asteroid.

Barr, Yael R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Heritage BioSensor for Lunar Biology Experiments

Introduction: Automated biological experiments on small spacecraft missions have gained prominence over the past decade due to their simplicity, accessibility, and small mass, volume, and power needs. Most recently, the BioSensor microfluidic CubeSat payload aboard BioSentinel used an automated microfluidic cell culture system to study the effects of environmental stressors like deep space radiation and microgravity on yeast growth and metabolism. BioSentinel’s successor, the Lunar Explorer Instrument for space biology Applications (LEIA), will study the effects of lunar gravity and radiation using an improved version of the BioSensor microfluidic platform. The BioSensor payload has great adaptability to host a diverse range of biological experiments with single- and multi-celled organisms in both crewed and uncrewed missions, making it a compelling candidate for future space biology studies in a lunar surface environment. BioSensor Instrumentation on BioSentinel: The first spaceflight mission with the BioSensor, BioSentinel’s biology experiments occurred at three locations -- deep space, ISS and ground. The payload contained 18 microfluidic cards, each featuring 16 growth wells (a total of 288 growth wells). Each well was loaded before launch with desiccated yeast. In space, liquid culture medium (nutrients) was automatically introduced to batches of wells at a time to initiate a series of biology experiments. Temperature was maintained by thin film heaters on both sides of each card. Each well was equipped with three LEDs emitting at 570 nm, 630 nm, and 850 nm, paired with photodetectors to measure cell concentration and the alamarBlue (metabolic indicator dye) color transition from blue to pink. Phenotypic parameters like cell viability, metabolic rate, and generation time can be derived from these measurements. The sequence and timing of fluid fills, optical measurements, and thermal control were stored onboard, but could be updated asynchronously via ground communication. LEIA: LEIA is slated for launch no earlier than 2026 on a CLPS lander. BioSentinel’s BioSensor has been modified for use in LEIA. These improvements include: (a) storage for multiple culture medium types, (b) additional LED color (465 nm) for a new biological assay for antioxidant (carotenoid) production, (c) housing modifications for later biology load before launch, (d) improved isolation between electronic and fluidic components, and (e) improved humidity control for prolonged organism viability in case of post-load launch delay. Future Prospects: The consistent and successful demonstration of complex fluidics platforms alongside reliable instrument operations in a space environment is poised to create strong momentum for BioSensor-based biological experiment payloads. Planned future developments with the BioSensor include extending compatibility to a broader range of organisms and assays. Preliminary work has already demonstrated successful growth of Arabidopsis seedlings in fluidic cards. With a few modifications to the optical assembly, the setup could easily measure photosynthetic traits in plants and cyanobacteria. The addition of fluorescence measurements and generation of novel luminescent assays will elevate BioSensor’s functionality further. Beyond the BioSensor’s potential uses on free-flyer missions, ISS and Gateway, and CLPS landers, deploying the BioSensor to the lunar surface or in an artificial habitat on crewed missions could enable pioneering research on both how life responds to lunar conditions and future bioproduction capabilities making the BioSensor an indispensable tool for future space biology research.

Chinmayee Govinda Raj↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Comprehensive Experimental Study on Microstructure‐Graded Graphite Anodes for Enhancing Fast‐Charging Capability of Lithium‐Ion Batteries

Lithium‐ion batteries with high gravimetric capacity density and improved cycle life performance under fast‐charging conditions are crucial for widespread electric vehicle (EV) adoption. This study investigates how designing graphite anode microstructure, specifically porosity, and particle‐size gradients, improves lithium‐ion (Li + ) transport during fast‐charging conditions. Three‐layered graphite anodes with varying porosity (24%, 36%, 46%) and particle size gradients (3, 5, 10 μm) were compared to a conventional single‐layered electrode in half‐cell configurations. At room temperature and high discharge rate (2C), both gradient structures showed significantly enhanced capacity retention (80% and 67% vs. 50%) compared to the conventional electrode, highlighting the effectiveness of microstructure engineering for fast charging. The study also investigated the temperature's impact on cycle life. After 200 cycles at 2°C and 45°C, all gradient structures demonstrated superior capacity retention (≈80%) compared to the conventional electrode (35%), suggesting the gradients mitigate degradation rate at high temperatures. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy confirmed superior Li+ diffusion and lower resistivity in gradient electrodes. Simulations explored the influence of gradient profiles on reaction kinetics across the electrode thickness. Overall, this research demonstrates that the fast‐charging capability of graphite electrodes can be greatly enhanced by engineering the electrode microstructure, thereby making EV technology more accessible and appealing.

Ahmadi, Soma↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the Known Unknown: Including Marine Sources of Greenhouse Gases in Climate Modeling

Researchers have recently estimated that Arctic submarine permafrost currently traps 60 billion tons of methane and contains 560 billion tons of organic carbon in seafloor sediments and soil, a giant pool of carbon with potentially large feedbacks on the climate system. Unlike terrestrial permafrost, the submarine permafrost system has remained a “known unknown” because of the difficulty in acquiring samples and measurements. Consequently, this potentially large carbon stock never yet considered in global climate models or policy discussions, represents a real wildcard in our understanding of Earth’s climate. This report summarizes our group’s effort at developing a numerical modeling framework designed to produce a first-of-its-kind estimate of Arctic methane gas releases from the marine sediments to the water column, and potentially to the atmosphere, where positive climate feedback may occur. Newly developed modeling capability supported by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program at Sandia National Laboratories now gives us the ability to probabilistically map gas distribution and quantity in the seabed by using a hybrid approach of geospatial machine learning, and predictive numerical thermodynamic ensemble modeling. The novelty in this approach is its ability to produce maps of useful data in regions that are only sparsely sampled, a common challenge in the Arctic, and a major obstacle to progress in the past. By applying this model to the circum-Arctic continental shelves and integrating the flux of free gas from in situ methanogenesis and dissociating gas hydrates from the sediment column under climate forcing, we can provide the most reliable estimate of a spatially and temporally varying source term for greenhouse gas flux that can be used by global oceanographic circulation and Earth system models (such as DOE’s E3SM). The result will allow us to finally tackle the wildcard of the submarine permafrost carbon system, and better inform us about the severity of future national security threats that sustained climate change poses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2006

Decision Support Methods and Tools

This paper is one of a set of papers, developed simultaneously and presented within a single conference session, that are intended to highlight systems analysis and design capabilities within the Systems Analysis and Concepts Directorate (SACD) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center (LaRC). This paper focuses on the specific capabilities of uncertainty/risk analysis, quantification, propagation, decomposition, and management, robust/reliability design methods, and extensions of these capabilities into decision analysis methods within SACD. These disciplines are discussed together herein under the name of Decision Support Methods and Tools. Several examples are discussed which highlight the application of these methods within current or recent aerospace research at the NASA LaRC. Where applicable, commercially available, or government developed software tools are also discussed

Green, Lawrence L.↗