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DOE OSTI2026

Application of artificial intelligence methods in the international roughness index prediction of rigid and composite pavements: a systematic review

The International Roughness Index (IRI) is a widely adopted metric for quantifying pavement roughness, directly influencing vehicle safety, ride comfort, and overall roadway performance. In recent years, the use of Machine Learning (ML) models for IRI prediction has gained momentum, with the goal of improving the allocation of maintenance and rehabilitation resources by enabling accurate assessments of pavement conditions. Most prior reviews, however, have concentrated on flexible pavements, leaving a notable gap regarding rigid and composite pavements. To address this gap, the present study conducts a systematic review of Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods applied to IRI prediction for rigid and composite pavements. Literature published between 2004 and 2025 is synthesized to highlight prevailing trends, methodological contributions, and directions for future research. Particular attention is given to the types of models employed, the datasets used for training and validation, and the role of input variables and data-processing strategies. Across the included studies, ensemble learning methods (especially gradient boosting variants such as XGBoost), artificial neural networks, and hybrid architectures frequently achieved high predictive skill, with several models reporting test-set coefficients of determination approaching 0.9–0.96, indicating strong potential for capturing the influence of traffic, pavement structure, and climatic factors. Since these results are obtained from heterogeneous datasets and evaluation protocols, they are interpreted qualitatively rather than as strict cross-study rankings. Analysis of input variables revealed that pavement age and initial IRI were included in 91% (21 of 23) and 78% (18 of 23) of studies, respectively. Climatic variables such as the freezing index appeared in 57% (13 of 23), while traffic-related factors were considered in 65% (15 of 23). The findings underscore the importance of standardized, high-quality datasets, such as those from the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) program, along with data consistency, model interpretability, computational efficiency, and replicability in enhancing IRI prediction. Future research should focus on incorporating input variable selection techniques to identify the most influential predictors, thereby improving accuracy and robustness. Integrating these approaches with advanced non-linear data-driven models, coupled with robust hyperparameter optimization, holds considerable promise for strengthening the reliability of IRI prediction and supporting resilient pavement management strategies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Employing MACS/ViBRANT as a Surrogate MARVEL Reactor for Startup Reactivity Tuning and Supervisory Control Processes

Advanced nuclear reactors are a key part of the future of nuclear energy both in the United States and globally. They offer unique benefits for various energy-demanding applications, including use in remote locations, compact size, modular manufacturing, remote monitoring, low and/or variable power rating operation, and reliance on novel technologies to enhance operational safety. To achieve economic feasibility, advanced reactors must significantly reduce their workforces in comparison with the current fleet. Achieving this reduction will occur through reducing staff workloads using technology to achieve autonomous or semi-autonomous operations, demonstrated by comprehensive testing and validation activities. These operations will require both software and hardware platforms during the design and testing phases. While simulations are useful during the design phase, their performance can significantly deviate during actual deployment on hardware. This report presents the outcomes of a collaborative technical initiative between the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Microreactor Program (MRP) and Advanced Sensors and Instrumentation (ASI) Program. The collaboration utilized the Microreactor Automated Control System (MACS) hardware platform to bridge the gap between theoretical reactor design and actual startup and control operations. Two key use cases were investigated: facilitating the startup testing period and demonstrating supervisory control. The first use case details the key Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation (MARVEL) reactor startup physics testing activities conducted using the MACS platform. These activities included drum worth measurements, shutdown margin assessment, temperature feedback analysis, and scram time evaluation, as well as unique testing that would apply to the MARVEL reactor to demonstrate the testing methodologies in a low-risk environment. The MACS platform, serving as a surrogate representation of the MARVEL reactor, proved instrumental in performing these tests. The exercise revealed aspects that led to optimized processes, refined hardware design, and enhanced base software capabilities. By maturing methods and technologies in this manner, the initiative promises to reduce wasted time in the actual on-site reactor deployment effort, thereby saving significant time and resources. The second use case focuses on the development and implementation of supervisory control methods aimed at managing core tilt, which can result from asymmetrical operations or manufacturing imperfections in fuel rods or reactivity control devices. A key objective was to assess and compare the use of artificial intelligence (AI) for supervisory control. The effort aimed to define the role of supervisory control to enhance performance without risking control instability. This effort explored three distinct approaches: rules-based (RB) methods, optimization techniques, and reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms. Each approach was evaluated for its ease of implementation, its usability, and its effectiveness in responding to asymmetries in neutron flux. Comparative analysis of these approaches provided valuable insights into their applicability and effectiveness, offering a robust framework for advanced reactor operations. Together, these two use cases highlight the potential of hardware test beds to help streamline the design, operation, and control of advanced nuclear reactors. This collaborative effort underscores the importance of continued innovation and experimentation in achieving the next generation of safe, reliable, and economically viable nuclear energy solutions.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling the impact of extreme summer drought on conventional and renewable generation capacity: Methods and a case study on the Eastern U.S. power system

Across recent years, there has been a growing prevalence of extreme weather events throughout the United States, posing significant challenges to the reliable and resilient operation of power systems. Specifically, summer droughts threaten to severely reduce available generation capacity to meet regional electricity demand, potentially leading to power outages. This underscores the importance of accurate resource adequacy (RA) assessment to ensure the reliable operation of the nation’s energy infrastructure. Accurately evaluating the usable capacity of regional generation fleets is a challenging undertaking due to the intricate interactions between power systems and hydro-climatic systems. Here, this paper proposes a systematic and analytical framework to evaluate the impacts of extreme summer drought events on the available capacity of various generating technologies, incorporating both meteorological and hydrologic factors. The framework provides detailed plant-level capacity derating models for hydroelectric, thermoelectric, and renewable power plants, facilitating evaluations with high temporal and spatial resolution. The application of the proposed impact assessment framework to the 2025 generation fleet of the real-world power system within the PJM and SERC regions of the United States yields insightful results. By analyzing the daily usable capacity of 6,055 at-risk generators across the study region, it shows that the summer capacity deration is most significant for hydroelectric and once-through thermal power plants, followed by recirculating thermal power plants and combustion turbines. In the event of the recurrence of the 2007 southeastern summer drought event in the near future, the generation fleet could experience a substantial reduction in available capacity, estimated at approximately 8.5 GW, compared to typical summer conditions. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the usable capacity of the generation fleet would suffer an even more significant decrease under conditions of increasingly severe summer droughts. The proposed approach and the findings of this study provide valuable methodologies and insights, empowering stakeholders to bolster the resilience of power systems against the potentially devastating effects of future extreme drought events.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2004

Vibration-Based Data Used to Detect Cracks in Rotating Disks

Rotor health monitoring and online damage detection are increasingly gaining the interest of aircraft engine manufacturers. This is primarily due to the fact that there is a necessity for improved safety during operation as well as a need for lower maintenance costs. Applied techniques for the damage detection and health monitoring of rotors are essential for engine safety, reliability, and life prediction. Recently, the United States set the ambitious goal of reducing the fatal accident rate for commercial aviation by 80 percent within 10 years. In turn, NASA, in collaboration with the Federal Aviation Administration, other Federal agencies, universities, and the airline and aircraft industries, responded by developing the Aviation Safety Program. This program provides research and technology products needed to help the aerospace industry achieve their aviation safety goal. The Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) Group of the Optical Instrumentation Technology Branch at the NASA Glenn Research Center is currently developing propulsion-system-specific technologies to detect damage prior to catastrophe under the propulsion health management task. Currently, the NDE group is assessing the feasibility of utilizing real-time vibration data to detect cracks in turbine disks. The data are obtained from radial blade-tip clearance and shaft-clearance measurements made using capacitive or eddy-current probes. The concept is based on the fact that disk cracks distort the strain field within the component. This, in turn, causes a small deformation in the disk's geometry as well as a possible change in the system's center of mass. The geometric change and the center of mass shift can be indirectly characterized by monitoring the amplitude and phase of the first harmonic (i.e., the 1 component) of the vibration data. Spin pit experiments and full-scale engine tests have been conducted while monitoring for crack growth with this detection methodology. Even so, published data are extremely limited, and the basic foundation of the methodology has not been fully studied. The NDE group is working on developing this foundation on the basis of theoretical modeling as well as experimental data by using the newly constructed subscale spin system shown in the preceding photograph. This, in turn, involved designing an optimal sub-scale disk that was meant to represent a full-scale turbine disk; conducting finite element analyses of undamaged and damaged disks to define the disk's deformation and the resulting shift in center of mass; and creating a rotordynamic model of the complete disk and shaft assembly to confirm operation beyond the first critical concerning the subscale experimental setup. The finite element analysis data, defining the center of mass shift due to disk damage, are shown. As an example, the change in the center of mass for a disk spinning at 8000 rpm with a 0.963-in. notch was 1.3 x 10(exp -4) in. The actual vibration response of an undamaged disk as well as the theoretical response of a cracked disk is shown. Experiments with cracked disks are continuing, and new approaches for analyzing the captured vibration data are being developed to better detect damage in a rotor. In addition, the subscale spin system is being used to test the durability and sensitivity of new NDE sensors that focus on detecting localized damage. This is designed to supplement the global response of the crack-detection methodology described here.

Gyekenyesi, Andrew L.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Precursor Analysis Report: SQL Slammer Worm Infection of Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Plant 2003

The SQL Slammer Worm Infection of Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Plant 2003 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about Davis-Besse’s 2003 cyber attack and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed in the attack. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. On 25 January 2003, the SQL Slammer worm infected more than 90% of vulnerable hosts and crashed the internet in 10 to 15 minutes, making it one of the fastest spreading worms in history. SQL Slammer is a fileless, memory-resident worm that remotely exploits a stack-based buffer overflow vulnerability on local hosts to intensively scan and rapidly self-propagate across the internet. The worm infected approximately 300,000 unpatched hosts running Microsoft Structured Query Language (SQL) Server 2000 or Microsoft Desktop Engine (MSDE) 2000 with SQL Server Resolution Service. The SQL Slammer worm indirectly infected FirstEnergy’s Davis-Besse nuclear power plant by first infecting a consultant’s company network server and then propagating through an external misconfigured connection into Davis-Besse’s site network. The infection caused major network congestion, slow performance, data overloads, and the inability of local hosts to communicate with each other, which eventually caused a loss of availability and a loss of view when the Safety Parameter Display System (SPDS) and Plant Process Computer (PPC) crashed. At the time of the infection, the plant was already offline, the digital monitoring systems had redundant analog backups, and the plant control and safety functions were not affected, so there were no concerns of a safety breach. However, this incident resulted in many lessons learned and spawned important discussions about cybersecurity’s role in nuclear safety and electric power reliability regulation, policy, and guidance. Researchers and analysts identified 10 unique techniques utilized during the attack with a total of 640 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Eight of the identified techniques used during Davis-Besse cyber attack were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 596 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 428 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the 331 days preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification of a deep learning fuel property prediction model

Deep learning models are being widely used in the field of combustion. Given the black-box nature of typical neural network based models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical to ensure the reliability of predictions as well as the training datasets, and for a principled quantification of noise and its various sources. Deep learning surrogate models for predicting properties of chemical compounds and mixtures have been recently shown to be promising for enabling data-driven fuel design and optimization, with the ultimate goal of improving efficiency and lowering emissions from combustion engines. In this study, UQ is performed for a multi-task deep learning model that simultaneously predicts the research octane number (RON), Motor Octane Number (MON), and Yield Sooting Index (YSI) of pure components and multicomponent blends. The deep learning model is comprised of three smaller networks: Extractor 1, Extractor 2, and Predictor, and a mixing operator. The molecular fingerprints of individual components are encoded via Extractor 1 and Extractor 2, the mixing operator generates fingerprints for mixtures/blends based on linear mixing operation, and the predictor maps the fingerprint to the target properties. Two different classes of UQ methods, Monte Carlo ensemble methods and Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), are employed for quantifying the epistemic uncertainty. Combinations of Bernoulli and Gaussian distributions with DropConnect and DropOut techniques are explored as ensemble methods. All the DropConnect, DropOut and Bayesian layers are applied to the predictor network. Aleatoric uncertainty is modeled by assuming that each data point has an independent uncertainty associated with it. The results of the UQ study are further analyzed to compare the performance of BNN and ensemble methods. Although this study is confined to UQ of fuel property prediction, the methodologies are applicable to other deep learning frameworks that are being widely used in the combustion community.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A proposed high-intensity radiometer calibration method using concentrated solar radiation

Accurate calibration of irradiance measurement devices, or radiometers, is essential for ensuring the reliability of measurements in high heat applications such as concentrating solar power (CSP), aerospace, defense, and pulsed power systems. Despite the critical need, existing calibration standards and service providers are limited to irradiance levels below 100 kW/m 2 and specific radiation sources, which is insufficient for many applications. For instance, CSP technologies, particularly those under the Department of Energy’s Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) Gen 3 program, require accurate measurements of broadband irradiance at levels exceeding 2000 kW/m 2 . In even more extreme scenarios, such as re-entry vehicles, heat levels can surpass 10000 kW/m 2 . Current ISO standards, specifically ISO 14934–2 and ISO 14934–3, are constrained to lower irradiance levels and dependent on black body heat sources, limiting their applicability for high-intensity broadband irradiance measurements, particularly in concentrated solar applications. Here, to address this shortfall, the National Solar Thermal Test Facility (NSTTF) at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) proposes a calibration method and facility capable of characterizing radiometers up to 2750 kW/m 2 using concentrated solar irradiance. Calibrating with concentrated sunlight is important for solar applications as it aligns the calibration process with the solar spectrum. This alignment is crucial for minimizing systematic errors and avoiding the need for additional corrections that may arise when radiometers designed for solar applications are calibrated using black-body or electrical sources. This paper presents the present day NSTTF characterization facility and procedure, detailing the proposed calibration method and uncertainty quantification. The presented method builds upon 1980′s NSTTF methodology and involves both theoretical and empirical methods to establish a robust relationship between gauge voltage output and irradiance intensity, quantifying both measurement and fitting errors. By addressing the limitations of existing standards and extending the characterization range, this work provides an advancement in the field of high-intensity irradiance measurement and instrumentation characterization.

Gardon gauge↗

DOE OSTI2022

How to Obtain the Redshift Distribution from Probabilistic Redshift Estimates

Abstract A reliable estimate of the redshift distribution n ( z ) is crucial for using weak gravitational lensing and large-scale structures of galaxy catalogs to study cosmology. Spectroscopic redshifts for the dim and numerous galaxies of next-generation weak-lensing surveys are expected to be unavailable, making photometric redshift (photo- z ) probability density functions (PDFs) the next best alternative for comprehensively encapsulating the nontrivial systematics affecting photo- z point estimation. The established stacked estimator of n ( z ) avoids reducing photo- z PDFs to point estimates but yields a systematically biased estimate of n ( z ) that worsens with a decreasing signal-to-noise ratio, the very regime where photo- z PDFs are most necessary. We introduce Cosmological Hierarchical Inference with Probabilistic Photometric Redshifts ( CHIPPR ), a statistically rigorous probabilistic graphical model of redshift-dependent photometry that correctly propagates the redshift uncertainty information beyond the best-fit estimator of n ( z ) produced by traditional procedures and is provably the only self-consistent way to recover n ( z ) from photo- z PDFs. We present the chippr prototype code, noting that the mathematically justifiable approach incurs computational cost. The CHIPPR approach is applicable to any one-point statistic of any random variable, provided the prior probability density used to produce the posteriors is explicitly known; if the prior is implicit, as may be the case for popular photo- z techniques, then the resulting posterior PDFs cannot be used for scientific inference. We therefore recommend that the photo- z community focus on developing methodologies that enable the recovery of photo- z likelihoods with support over all redshifts, either directly or via a known prior probability density.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2022

Tri-Agency Reliability Engineering Guidance: Post Mission Disposal and Extension Assessment

The Trilateral partners — the European Space Agency (ESA), Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the United States Government (USG) in their execution of safe and successful missions, have a long-standing history of sustaining the shared space environment of operational Earth-Moon orbits with their global space-stewardship, or spacekeeping, of these areas. This has driven missions to limit the generation of new and long-lived debris, control debris releases, minimize accidental explosions and collisions, and ensure Post-Mission Disposal of space systems, so that the environment remains safe for future operations and explorations. Given the continued need for space systems to support global mandatory infrastructure and commercial enterprise, spacefarers are extending beyond the Trilateral partners, more and smaller satellites are being deployed, and current assets are being utilized much longer than expected. This is making space more congested than ever; therefore, the Trilateral partners are evaluating potential future debris mitigation strategies, evolving technology, developing on-orbit servicing capabilities, and advancing their abilities to assess disposal and mission extension plans. They are also sharing their lessons learned and identifying opportunities for future state-of-the-art advancements for current and future space enterprises. Sustaining the space environment cannot be ensured by any one agency or country. Thus, the Trilateral authors have shared their lessons learned, insights, and guidance, herein, on disposal and mission extension assessment strategies with the gratitude of each agency. As such, this document is not prescriptive, but was formulated to enhance value-and-risk-balanced operational decision-making, support policy refinement, and guide spacefaring partners beyond these agencies to assess their activities in space with safety and a global space-stewardship, or spacekeeping, in mind. This includes not only the disposal and mission extension assessment addressed herein, but also preserving space history, ensuring collaboration/interoperability of technology, supporting fellow operators without interfering, and the utilization of in-situ resources for the common benefit of humankind. It is the intention of the Trilateral partners that this document evolves based on community lessons learned and the introduction of new assessment methodologies. So, all readers are encouraged to share their insights with the authors from their own application of this guidance or other strategies to ensure each mission has a successful, safe, and judicious life and conclusion.

ESA↗

NASA NTRS2020

Stochastic Simulation of Mudcrack Damage Formation in an Environmental Barrier Coating

The FEAMAC/CARES program, which integrates finite element analysis (FEA) with the MAC/GMC (Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells) and the CARES/Life (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures / Life Prediction) programs, was used to simulate the formation of mudcracks during the cooling of a multilayered environmental barrier coating (EBC) deposited on a silicon carbide substrate. FEAMAC/CARES combines the MAC/GMC multiscale micromechanics analysis capability (primarily developed for composite materials) with the CARES/Life probabilistic multiaxial failure criteria (developed for brittle ceramic materials) and Abaqus (Dassault Systèmes) FEA. In this report, elastic modulus reduction of randomly damaged finite elements was used to represent discrete cracking events. The use of many small-sized low-aspect-ratio elements enabled the formation of crack boundaries, leading to development of mudcrack-patterned damage. Finite element models of a disk-shaped three-dimensional specimen and a twodimensional model of a through-the-thickness cross section subjected to progressive cooling from 1,300 °C to an ambient temperature of 23 °C were made. Mudcrack damage in the coating resulted from the buildup of residual tensile stresses between the individual material constituents because of thermal expansion mismatches between coating layers and the substrate. A two-parameter Weibull distribution characterized the coating layer stochastic strength response and allowed the effect of the Weibull modulus on the formation of damage and crack segmentation lengths to be studied. The spontaneous initiation of cracking and crack coalescence resulted in progressively smaller mudcrack cells as cooling progressed, consistent with a fractal-behaved fracture pattern. Other failure modes such as delamination, and possibly spallation, could also be reproduced. The physical basis assumed and the heuristic approach employed, which involves a simple stochastic cellular automaton methodology to approximate the crack growth process, are described. The results ultimately show that a selforganizing mudcrack formation can derive from a Weibull distribution that is used to describe the stochastic strength response of the bulk brittle ceramic material layers of an EBC.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Printed Wiring Board Technology Infusion and Supplier Capability Overview

Risk based technology infusion is a deliberate and systematic process which defines the analysis and communication methodology by which new technology is applied and integrated into existing and new designs, identifies technology development needs based on trends analysis and facilitates the identification of shortfalls against performance objectives. This presentation at QLF 2018 provides the audience a snapshot of quality variations in printed wiring board quality, as assessed, using experiences in processing and risk analysis of PWB structural integrity coupons. The presentation will focus on printed wiring board quality metrics used, the relative type and number of non-conformances observed and trend analysis using statistical methods. Trend analysis shows the top five non-conformances observed across PWB suppliers, the root cause(s) behind these non-conformance and suggestions of mitigation plans. The trends will then be matched with the current state of the PWB supplier base and its challenges and opportunities. The presentation further discusses the methods being applied at GSFC for evaluating candidate printed wiring board technologies which promote the adoption of higher throughput and faster processing technology for GSFC missions.

PCB fabrication↗

DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian Approach to Estimation of Water Table Elevations Using Historical Rasters as Prior Information 2019 - 20430

In cases of complex but only partially known geology and a lack of spatial control in observation well locations, water table elevation estimation is very challenging. In some cases, auxiliary information, such as observations of the movement of tracers, operation of injection and extraction wells, and calibration of groundwater models against the historical elevation data, can be combined with expert judgement to estimate flow directions in areas of sparse data and to aid in the production of more reliable contour maps (and associated rasters) than could be produced by relying on sparse well elevation data alone. Given a historical sequence of these raster maps, the question arises how to automate, to the extent possible, the process of producing new raster maps to reflect data from previous times, the current data and the operation of expert judgement. One solution is to adopt a Bayesian point of view and to regard the historical well elevation data, auxiliary information and historical raster maps as prior information. The well elevations for water table wells, as well as those for injection/extraction wells and the data associated with other relevant variables, can be viewed as predictors for the raster surface. From this prior information, we can, conditional on the values of these predictors for a new time period, compute an expected value map and a standard deviation map for the new raster. These then can be taken to specify a prior predictive distribution for the pixels in the new raster map. Then we condition the pixels, corresponding to water level observation wells within the raster, on the observed values in those wells (which in general will differ from the regression estimate) for the new time period. Given the smoothness of the water table surface, we then smooth the surface of deviations from the mean surface, based on the variograms of the historical rasters, and add this smoothed surface to the regression mean surface. The error structure of the produced raster map is defined by the regression error structure and the error due to smoothing based on the estimated variograms. This methodology has been developed and is being further refined for groundwater monitoring and remediation at LANL. It is a very flexible method that can also be applied with a variety of other predictors applied to model the water level wells in the area of interest over the historical record. The smoothness of the spatial process and its possible evolution over time can then be estimated from the residuals from this regression. This can be augmented by expert hydrogeological opinion based on site topography and hydrogeology. (authors)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sensor enabled data-driven predictive analytics for modeling and control with high penetration of DERs in distribution systems

The electric power grid is undergoing a tremendous transformation due to the increasing penetration of renewable energy resources beginning with wind and more recently with the distributed energy resources (DERs) such as solar and battery storage. DERs have dramatically changed the role of the distribution systems in the overall power grid, and they are expected to contribute a significant portion of power generation in the future. If current trends for DERs continue, system operation and control will need to change dramatically for improved grid reliability and resiliency. As renewable resources increase in penetration, new and challenging operational, planning, and design problems are expected to emerge. Some of the key challenges that arise in the planning and operation of the future grid are: 1) Quantifying the impact of high DER penetration in distribution systems on bulk grid behavior over multiple time scales. 2) Identifying whether a particular DER configuration/settings have a large impact on the overall grid behavior. These challenges can be addressed in an offline manner using detailed T&D grid models and they can also be addressed in an online manner using sensor measurements. In particular, the advancement and planned growth in sensor technology in power grid over various voltage levels provide us with a unique opportunity to tackle these challenges from a data analytic perspective without needing detailed T&D grid models. A few questions that naturally arise when addressing the challenges from DERs using sensor data are: 1) How can we use limited sensor measurements to monitor & control voltage stability and small signal stability of the bulk system? 2) How can we ensure that the developed data analytic methods are robust to data availability and quality issues? 3) How can we compute the developed analytics in a scalable manner using streaming measurements? In this project, we addressed the aforementioned challenges arising from DERs and answered the questions raised above on how to effectively use the sensor measurements to enhance the reliability and performance of the electric grid. Thus, the overarching goal of this project is to develop effective reduced/representative system models from data that make the computational complexity sufficiently manageable so as to be useful to simulate, analyze, and even control complex non-linear power systems dynamics with large penetrations of DERs. In order to achieve the objective, the project team established a four-fold technical approach 1) Formulated a combined transmission-distribution co-simulation framework for data generation and validation, 2) Derived reduced/representative models of power systems based on data-driven methods for efficient computation and appropriate representation of system behavior, 3) Developed data driven characterization of power system behavior based on transfer operator theory, machine learning and optimization for model estimation, 4) Incorporated a scalable data management and processing architecture using distributed Kafka streaming applications that coordinate input data streams to the developed data analytics. The key accomplishments of the project are: 1) Development of a scalable multi-timescale T&D co-simulation framework (both for steady state and for dynamic co-simulation) using commercial solvers (PSSE and GridLAB-D). The steady-state T&D co-simulation interface is shared with our industry partner (PJM). 2) A structured reduced order dynamic model of distribution systems that can represent partial motor stalling along with a systematic procedure to derive the model parameters. 3) A PMU based online method to monitor, localize and mitigate fault-induced delayed voltage recovery using DER reactive support and load control in distribution systems. 4) Development of linear operator based robust methodologies for dynamic state estimation, uncertainty quantification, system identification and trajectory prediction for power system dynamics. 5) An adaptive damping control for utilizing wind energy resources to provide oscillation damping and system stability. 6) Implementation of Kafka-based framework for efficient processing of streaming data using Linux-based local virtual environment.

DER integration↗

NASA NTRS2019

Comprehensive Severe Weather Impact Assessment and Monitoring using Synthetic Aperture Radar and Auxiliary Data

Remote sensing datasets, particularly acquired by Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) sensors, have become increasingly important in severe weather disaster impact studies given their ability to observe the Earth largely irrespective of weather and sunlight conditions. The reliability of existing SAR change detection products applied on a pair of SAR images is constrained by the limitation of current methods to differentiate and classify disaster specific changes from anthropogenic surface alterations. Moreover, the inherent properties of the sensors, variations in SAR backscatter due to changes in surface conditions, and other factors exacerbate these limitations. We proposed a novel procedure expanding on earlier SAR-based change detection methods to exclude anthropogenic alterations and other sources of ambiguity that might lead to inaccurate mapping of the impacts of severe weather disasters. We applied the proposed procedure that is based on long term interferometric and amplitude-based change detection analyses of Sentinel- 1 SAR imagery to two study sites recently impacted by severe weather disasters (Flooding post severe weather events in urban centers; Hailstorm damage on crops). For the first case study, Sentinel-1 SLC scenes from two flood events in the Houston area (April 2016 flooding event and Hurricane Harvey of August-September 2017) were used to construct a flood map depicting areas repeatedly affected by the flood. Pixels with consistent coherence values in the pre-disaster coherence stack were retained for comparison with the pre- and post-disaster coherence stack and pixels with significant decline (greater than 60%) in coherence values were retained in the final flood map. The findings of the applied technique were calibrated and validated through datasets from NOAA/NWS Service storm reports, aerial imaging (NOAA and Civil Air Patrol), Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) reporting, and targeted collections of NASA’s L-band UAVSAR data. Findings and products derived from the adopted methodology can be useful in disaster response and mitigation activities.

Gebremichael, Esayas↗

DOE OSTI2021

ClimateNet: an expert-labeled open dataset and deep learning architecture for enabling high-precision analyses of extreme weather

Abstract. Identifying, detecting, and localizing extreme weather events is a crucial first step in understanding how they may vary under different climate change scenarios. Pattern recognition tasks such as classification, object detection, and segmentation (i.e., pixel-level classification) have remained challenging problems in the weather and climate sciences. While there exist many empirical heuristics for detecting extreme events, the disparities between the output of these different methods even for a single event are large and often difficult to reconcile. Given the success of deep learning (DL) in tackling similar problems in computer vision, we advocate a DL-based approach. DL, however, works best in the context of supervised learning – when labeled datasets are readily available. Reliable labeled training data for extreme weather and climate events is scarce. We create “ClimateNet” – an open, community-sourced human-expert-labeled curated dataset that captures tropical cyclones (TCs) and atmospheric rivers (ARs) in high-resolution climate model output from a simulation of a recent historical period. We use the curated ClimateNet dataset to train a state-of-the-art DL model for pixel-level identification – i.e., segmentation – of TCs and ARs. We then apply the trained DL model to historical and climate change scenarios simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM5.1) and show that the DL model accurately segments the data into TCs, ARs, or “the background” at a pixel level. Further, we show how the segmentation results can be used to conduct spatially and temporally precise analytics by quantifying distributions of extreme precipitation conditioned on event types (TC or AR) at regional scales. The key contribution of this work is that it paves the way for DL-based automated, high-fidelity, and highly precise analytics of climate data using a curated expert-labeled dataset – ClimateNet. ClimateNet and the DL-based segmentation method provide several unique capabilities: (i) they can be used to calculate a variety of TC and AR statistics at a fine-grained level; (ii) they can be applied to different climate scenarios and different datasets without tuning as they do not rely on threshold conditions; and (iii) the proposed DL method is suitable for rapidly analyzing large amounts of climate model output. While our study has been conducted for two important extreme weather patterns (TCs and ARs) in simulation datasets, we believe that this methodology can be applied to a much broader class of patterns and applied to observational and reanalysis data products via transfer learning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2017

A Virtual Laboratory for Aviation and Airspace Prognostics Research

Integration of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), autonomy, spacecraft, and other aviation technologies, in the airspace is becoming more and more complicated, and will continue to do so in the future. Inclusion of new technology and complexity into the airspace increases the importance and difficulty of safety assurance. Additionally, testing new technologies on complex aviation systems and systems of systems can be challenging, expensive, and at times unsafe when implementing real life scenarios. The application of prognostics to aviation and airspace management may produce new tools and insight into these problems. Prognostic methodology provides an estimate of the health and risks of a component, vehicle, or airspace and knowledge of how that will change over time. That measure is especially useful in safety determination, mission planning, and maintenance scheduling. In our research, we develop a live, distributed, hardware- in-the-loop Prognostics Virtual Laboratory testbed for aviation and airspace prognostics. The developed testbed will be used to validate prediction algorithms for the real-time safety monitoring of the National Airspace System (NAS) and the prediction of unsafe events. In our earlier work1 we discussed the initial Prognostics Virtual Laboratory testbed development work and related results for milestones 1 & 2. This paper describes the design, development, and testing of the integrated tested which are part of milestone 3, along with our next steps for validation of this work. Through a framework consisting of software/hardware modules and associated interface clients, the distributed testbed enables safe, accurate, and inexpensive experimentation and research into airspace and vehicle prognosis that would not have been possible otherwise. The testbed modules can be used cohesively to construct complex and relevant airspace scenarios for research. Four modules are key to this research: the virtual aircraft module which uses the X-Plane simulator and X-PlaneConnect toolbox, the live aircraft module which connects fielded aircraft using onboard cellular communications devices, the hardware in the loop (HITL) module which connects laboratory based bench-top hardware testbeds and the research module which contains diagnostics and prognostics tools for analysis of live air traffic situations and vehicle health conditions. The testbed also features other modules for data recording and playback, information visualization, and air traffic generation. Software reliability, safety, and latency are some of the critical design considerations in development of the testbed.

LVC-DE↗

NASA NTRS2013

Adoption of Test Driven Development and Continuous Integration for the Development of the Trick Simulation Toolkit

This paper describes the adoption of a Test Driven Development approach and a Continuous Integration System in the development of the Trick Simulation Toolkit, a generic simulation development environment for creating high fidelity training and engineering simulations at the NASA/Johnson Space Center and many other NASA facilities. It describes what was learned and the significant benefits seen, such as fast, thorough, and clear test feedback every time code is checked-in to the code repository. It also describes a system that encourages development of code that is much more flexible, maintainable, and reliable. The Trick Simulation Toolkit development environment provides a common architecture for user-defined simulations. Trick builds executable simulations using user-supplied simulation-definition files (S_define) and user supplied "model code". For each Trick-based simulation, Trick automatically provides job scheduling, checkpoint / restore, data-recording, interactive variable manipulation (variable server), and an input-processor. Also included are tools for plotting recorded data and various other supporting tools and libraries. Trick is written in C/C++ and Java and supports both Linux and MacOSX. Prior to adopting this new development approach, Trick testing consisted primarily of running a few large simulations, with the hope that their complexity and scale would exercise most of Trick's code and expose any recently introduced bugs. Unsurprising, this approach yielded inconsistent results. It was obvious that a more systematic, thorough approach was required. After seeing examples of some Java-based projects that used the JUnit test framework, similar test frameworks for C and C++ were sought. Several were found, all clearly inspired by JUnit. Googletest, a freely available Open source testing framework, was selected as the most appropriate and capable. The new approach was implemented while rewriting the Trick memory management component, to eliminate a fundamental design flaw. The benefits became obvious almost immediately, not just in the correctness of the individual functions and classes but also in the correctness and flexibility being added to the overall design. Creating code to be testable, and testing as it was created resulted not only in better working code, but also in better-organized, flexible, and readable (i.e., articulate) code. This was, in essence the Test-driven development (TDD) methodology created by Kent Beck. Seeing the benefits of Test Driven Development, other Trick components were refactored to make them more testable and tests were designed and implemented for them.

Penn, John M.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Range Imaging without Moving Parts

Range-imaging instruments of a type now under development are intended to generate the equivalent of three-dimensional images from measurements of the round-trip times of flight of laser pulses along known directions. These instruments could also provide information on characteristics of targets, including roughnesses and reflectivities of surfaces and optical densities of such semi-solid objects as trees and clouds. Unlike in prior range-imaging instruments based on times of flight along known directions, there would be no moving parts; aiming of the laser beams along the known directions would not be accomplished by mechanical scanning of mirrors, prisms, or other optical components. Instead, aiming would be accomplished by using solid-state devices to switch input and output beams along different fiber-optic paths. Because of the lack of moving parts, these instruments could be extraordinarily reliable, rugged, and long-lasting. An instrument of this type would include an optical transmitter that would send out a laser pulse along a chosen direction to a target. An optical receiver coaligned with the transmitter would measure the temporally varying intensity of laser light reflected from the target to determine the distance and surface characteristics of the target. The transmitter would be a combination of devices for generating precise directional laser illumination. It would include a pulsed laser, the output of which would be coupled into a fiber-optic cable with a fan-out and solid-state optical switches that would enable switching of the laser beam onto one or more optical fibers terminated at known locations in an array on a face at the focal plane of a telescope. The array would be imaged by the telescope onto the target space. The receiver optical system could share the aforementioned telescope with the transmitter or could include a separate telescope aimed in the same direction as that of the transmitting telescope. In either case, light reflected from the target would be focused by the receiver optical system onto an array of optical fibers matching the array in the transmitter. These optical fibers would couple the received light to one or more photodetector( s). Optionally, the receiver could include solid-state optical switches for choosing which optical fiber(s) would couple light to the photodetector(s). This instrument architecture is flexible and can be optimized for a wide variety of applications and levels of performance. For example, it is scalable to any number of pixels and pixel resolutions and is compatible with a variety of ranging and photodetection methodologies, including, for example, ranging by use of modulated (including pulsed and encoded) light signals. The use of fixed arrays of optical fibers to generate controlled illumination patterns would eliminate the mechanical complexity and much of the bulk of optomechanical scanning assemblies. Furthermore, digital control of the selection of the fiber-optic pathways for the transmitted beams could afford capabilities not seen in previous three-dimensional range-imaging systems. Instruments of this type could be specialized for use as, for example, proximity detectors, three-dimensional robotic vision systems, airborne terrain-mapping systems, and inspection systems.

Blair, J. Bryan↗