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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,441 records · Page 80
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Impact of Satellite Microwave Radiance Data Assimilation on GEOS Atmospheric Analysis and Forecasts in Tropics

The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) has developed a system to assimilate all-sky microwave radiance data in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS). The system provides additional constraints on the analysis process near the storm regions and adjusts the geophysical parameters such as precipitation, cloud, moisture, surface pressure, and wind by combining information from microwave radiance measurements and model forecasts in an optimal manner. The system proved that assimilating the all-sky microwave radiance data improve the GEOS atmospheric analyses and forecasts. This all-sky data framework has been included in the GEOS Forward Processing (FP) system and currently assimilating all-sky GMI data in real-time for GEOS global analysis and forecast production at the GMAO. This presentation describes the methodologies to assimilate cloud- and precipitation-affected microwave radiances in GEOS data assimilation system based on hybrid four-dimensional ensemble-variational (4D-EnVar) configuration. In the current operational GEOS-FP system, the addition of all-sky GMI radiances has the largest impact in the Tropics. Specific humidity is significantly improved in the short term (0-72 hours) forecasts. Similar improvements are seen in the Tropical and lower tropospheric temperature and winds. More detailed results on all-sky microwave radiance data impact on GEOS analysis and forecasts are discussed in this presentation.

Kim, Min-Jeong↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Management of Operations under Visual Flight Rules in UTM for Disaster Response Missions

The disaster response domain has experienced an increased focus in recent years due to the rise in number and scale of events, lessons learned from past experience, and emerging technologies that make possible a more coordinated and effective response. As part of this focus, JAXA and NASA have been collaborating on the integration of manned and unmanned aircraft in support of disaster response operations through integrated testing of their respective mission planning and optimization system (Disaster Relief Aircraft Information Sharing Network, or D-NET) and an automated UAS traffic management system (e.g., UTM). In 2018, JAXA and NASA jointly participated in a large-scale disaster drill in Japan where the integration of systems was successfully demonstrated through real-time data exchanges, visualization, and decision making as part of the coordinated airspace management of a manned helicopter in VFR conditions and unmanned small UAS operating in common areas. This work details a flight test consisting of two flights that were conducted December 2019 near the Chofu Aerodrome in Tokyo, which focused on the evaluation of pilots operating under Visual Flight Rules (VFR) communicating through D-NET and sharing intent and position information within UTM. This work contributes to defining the necessary requirements for digital coordination between manned and unmanned operations. UTM requires the use of operation volumes, which are spatial and temporal volumes that encompass UAS flight trajectories and account for technical performance errors and deviations due to disturbances (e.g., wind). A series of flights, representing different missions, used landmark-based operation volumes and conformance of the aircraft to those operation volumes were tracked within UTM. Experienced disaster response helicopter pilots provided insight on the development of the operation plans and their usability during disaster response operations. Results from the flight test supported the suggested benefits of using landmarks for planning and positional awareness and highlighted the need for future research in advanced visualization capabilities to support operations that consider both system constraints and flight deck/airspace management interaction.

disaster response↗
DOE OSTI2020

RouteE: A Vehicle Energy Consumption Prediction Engine

The emergence of connected and automated vehicles and smart cities technologies create the opportunity for new mobility modes and routing decision tools, among many others. To achieve maximum mobility and minimum energy consumption, it is critical to understand the energy cost of decisions and optimize accordingly. The Route Energy prediction model (RouteE) enables accurate estimation of energy consumption for a variety of vehicle types over trips or sub-trips where detailed drive cycle data are unavailable. Applications include vehicle route selection, energy accounting and optimization in transportation simulation, and corridor energy analyses, among others. The software is a Python package that includes a variety of pre-trained models from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). However, RouteE also enables users to train custom models using their own data sets, making it a robust and valuable tool for both fast calculations and rigorous, data-rich research efforts. The pre-trained RouteE models are established using NREL’s Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator paired with approximately 1 million miles of drive cycle data from the Transportation Secure Data Center, resulting in energy consumption behavior estimates over a representative sample of driving conditions for the United States. Validations have been performed using on-road fuel consumption data for conventional and electrified vehicle powertrains. Transferring the results of the on-road validation to a larger set of real-world origin-destination pairs, it is estimated that implementing the present methodology in a green-routing application would accurately select the route that consumes the least fuel 90% of the time. The novel machine learning techniques used in RouteE make it a flexible and robust tool for a variety of transportation applications.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Design of a Molten Salt Flow Cell for Combined Absorbance and Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy for Online Measurements

A novel flow cell allowing for multiple optical spectroscopy measurements on flowing molten salts was designed, and demonstrative calibrations of impurities in aqueous samples were performed. Online compositional measurements of molten salts are of high interest to monitor the state of relevant solar and nuclear systems. Here, the Spectroscopic Configuration for Optical Real-Time Characterization of High-Temperature (SCORCH) fluids cell was designed to meet this need by providing optical access to a high-temperature molten salt sample stream without physical contact between the sample and window materials. Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) was utilized to quantify Li, Cr, Fe, Ni, Sr, and Pr at concentrations ranging nominally from 0 to 315 mmol L −1 . Laser power, frequency, and plasma position were optimized to mitigate challenges associated with sample splashing. Univariate calibration models were built with R 2 > 0.98, percent root mean square error of cross-validation (%RMSECV) as low as 2.7%, and limits of quantification (LOQs) down to 4.1 mmol L −1 . Simultaneously, absorbance calibrations were developed for the applicable analytes (Cr, Ni, and Pr) using Beer’s law with a pathlength of 4.41 ± 0.10 mm. These models provide excellent quantification performance with R 2 > 0.999, %RMSECV as low as 0.6%, and LODs down to 0.08 mmol L −1 . Although these calibrations were performed for each spectroscopic technique separately, the two methods may be combined in the future through multivariate modeling and sensor fusion to provide more robust models with the benefits of both techniques (e.g., absorbance: oxidation state concentrations, LIBS: elemental concentration). Additionally, optimized spectrometers may be deployed to enhance sensitivity.

absorbance spectroscopy↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hierarchical Speed Planner for Automated Vehicles: A Framework for Lagrangian Variable Speed Limit in Mixed-Autonomy Traffic

Here, this article presents a novel hierarchical speed planning framework for variable speed limits in mixed-autonomy traffic environments, leveraging server-side macroscopic control and vehicle-side microscopic execution. The framework integrates real-time traffic state estimation (TSE) and reinforcement learning (RL)-based control to mitigate congestion and improve traffic flow. A TSE enhancement module combines macroscopic data from sources like INRIX with high-resolution observations from connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs), enabling predictive modeling to address latency and noise. The target speed design module employs kernel smoothing and a buffer zone strategy to optimize traffic density and flow around bottlenecks. The proposed system was validated in the largest open-road test to date with 100 CAVs, demonstrating an overall 8% traffic density decrease, with a specific decrease of 7% upstream, 10% downstream, and a 52% decrease during the congestion formation phase at bottlenecks.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1992

Machine Learning Techniques in Optimal Design

Many important applications can be formalized as constrained optimization tasks. For example, we are studying the engineering domain of two-dimensional (2-D) structural design. In this task, the goal is to design a structure of minimum weight that bears a set of loads. A solution to a design problem in which there is a single load (L) and two stationary support points (S1 and S2) consists of four members, E1, E2, E3, and E4 that connect the load to the support points is discussed. In principle, optimal solutions to problems of this kind can be found by numerical optimization techniques. However, in practice [Vanderplaats, 1984] these methods are slow and they can produce different local solutions whose quality (ratio to the global optimum) varies with the choice of starting points. Hence, their applicability to real-world problems is severely restricted. To overcome these limitations, we propose to augment numerical optimization by first performing a symbolic compilation stage to produce: (a) objective functions that are faster to evaluate and that depend less on the choice of the starting point and (b) selection rules that associate problem instances to a set of recommended solutions. These goals are accomplished by successive specializations of the problem class and of the associated objective functions. In the end, this process reduces the problem to a collection of independent functions that are fast to evaluate, that can be differentiated symbolically, and that represent smaller regions of the overall search space. However, the specialization process can produce a large number of sub-problems. This is overcome by deriving inductively selection rules which associate problems to small sets of specialized independent sub-problems. Each set of candidate solutions is chosen to minimize a cost function which expresses the tradeoff between the quality of the solution that can be obtained from the sub-problem and the time it takes to produce it. The overall solution to the problem, is then obtained by solving in parallel each of the sub-problems in the set and computing the one with the minimum cost. In addition to speeding up the optimization process, our use of learning methods also relieves the expert from the burden of identifying rules that exactly pinpoint optimal candidate sub-problems. In real engineering tasks it is usually too costly to the engineers to derive such rules. Therefore, this paper also contributes to a further step towards the solution of the knowledge acquisition bottleneck [Feigenbaum, 1977] which has somewhat impaired the construction of rulebased expert systems.

Cerbone, Giuseppe↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian experimental design and parameter estimation for ultrafast spin dynamics

Abstract Advanced experimental measurements are crucial for driving theoretical developments and unveiling novel phenomena in condensed matter and materials physics, which often suffer from the scarcity of large-scale facility resources, such as x-ray or neutron scattering centers. To address these limitations, we introduce a methodology that leverages the Bayesian optimal experimental design paradigm to efficiently uncover key quantum spin fluctuation parameters from x-ray photon fluctuation spectroscopy (XPFS) data. Our method is compatible with existing theoretical simulation pipelines and can also be used in combination with fast machine learning surrogate models in the event that real-time simulations are unfeasible. Our numerical benchmarks demonstrate the superior performance in predicting model parameters and in delivering more informative measurements within limited experimental time. Our method can be adapted to many different types of experiments beyond XPFS and spin fluctuation studies, facilitating more efficient data collection and accelerating scientific discoveries.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fixed-target serial crystallography at the Structural Biology Center

Serial synchrotron crystallography enables the study of protein structures under physiological temperature and reduced radiation damage by collection of data from thousands of crystals. The Structural Biology Center at Sector 19 of the Advanced Photon Source has implemented a fixed-target approach with a new 3D-printed mesh-holder optimized for sample handling. The holder immobilizes a crystal suspension or droplet emulsion on a nylon mesh, trapping and sealing a near-monolayer of crystals in its mother liquor between two thin Mylar films. Data can be rapidly collected in scan mode and analyzed in near real-time using piezoelectric linear stages assembled in an XYZ arrangement, controlled with a graphical user interface and analyzed using a high-performance computing pipeline. Here, the system was applied to two β-lactamases: a class D serine β-lactamase from Chitinophaga pinensis DSM 2588 and L1 metallo-β-lactamase from Stenotrophomonas maltophilia K279a.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

MARS: Malleable Actor-Critic Reinforcement Learning Scheduler

In this paper, we introduce MARS, a new scheduling system for HPC-cloud infrastructures based on a cost-aware, flexible reinforcement learning approach, which serves as an intermediate layer for next generation HPC-cloud resource manager. MARS ensembles the pre-trained models from heuristic workloads and decides on the most cost-effective strategy for optimization. A whole workflow application would be split into several optimizable dependent sub-tasks, then based on the pre- defined resource management plan, a reward will be generated after executing a scheduled task. Lastly, MARS updates the Deep Neural Network (DNN) model based on the reward. MARS is designed to optimize the existing models through reinforcement mechanisms. MARS adapts to the dynamics of workflow applications, selects the most cost-effective scheduling solution among pre-built scheduling strategies (backfilling, SJF, etc.) and self- learning deep neural network model at run-time. We evaluate MARS with different real-world workflow traces. MARS can achieve 5%-60% increased performance compare to state-of-the- art approaches.

Baheri, Betis↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bi-Level Linear Programming Model for Automatic Load Shedding: A Distributed Wide-Area Measurement System-based Solution

Load shedding is currently implemented as a two-step based approach. In the first step, manual load shedding is taken place, were system operators, using estimates, inform distribution utilities of predicted stressful conditions. Information provided include the potential use of energy reserves, as well as load shedding amount. In a second step, automatic load shedding is done. The latter is realized using protection relays. While considering frequency variation, pre-defined values of load to be shed and correspondent number of stages for such to be realized are transformed into relay settings. Under-frequency protection relays use only local measurements towards decision making, thus operate in a decentralized architecture. Decision making is done in milliseconds plus breaker time. While this approach has provided much system reliability, considering the new smart grid paradigm, where system dynamics are much faster due to increasing renewable resources penetration, in some operating conditions it will generate sub-optimal solutions, such as islanding. Phasor measurement units provide a source of information which can be useful for this problem. Centralized architecture-based solutions for automatic load shedding, as present in the state-of-the-art, require though total processing times which are not acceptable for real-life implementation. In this work, considering the above, a bi-level linear programming model is presented. The model is implemented considering a distributed architecture while leveraging phasor measurement units data. The upper-level model estimates the current system state. Results of this model are embedded in a lower-level model, which decision variables are the location and load value to be shed. Easy-to-implement model, built-on the classic weighted least squares solution, highlight potential aspects towards real-life applications.

Bretas, Arturo Suman↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cybersecurity Assessment in DER-rich Distribution Operations: Criticality Levels and Impact Analysis

The integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) in distribution networks has become a pivotal strategy for achieving decarbonization, enhancing grid resilience, and optimizing grid efficiency. Remote monitoring and control op- erations of such resources rely on a network of sensors and communication infrastructure, exposing the system to potential cyber threats. Therefore, as the deployment of DERs increases, ensuring secure monitoring and control becomes an imperative challenge. This paper utilizes real-time feeder models, which are instrumental in developing cybersecurity testbeds tailored for hardware-in-loop (HIL) systems. These models enable users to simulate cyber attacks in a real-world environment and analyze the power distribution operations during vulnerabilities. Furthermore, we discuss several practical sets of grid parameters to identify critical levels of DERs and evaluate various scenarios that simulate cyber threats on sensitive DERs. The modified IEEE 123-bus model is used as the test case for demonstrating the proposed scenarios. The findings from this study provide valuable insights into the vulnerabilities and potential consequences of cyber attacks on DERs, allowing for better mitigation strategies and improved cyber resilience in future distribution networks.

Maharjan, Manisha↗
DOE OSTI2021

Co-Optimization Scheme for Hybrid Electric Vehicles Powertrain and Exhaust Emission Control System Using Future Speed Prediction

Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) have been an effective solution for improved vehicle fuel efficiency and reduced emission pollution. In this paper, a co-optimization scheme is proposed to optimize fuel efficiency for HEVs. Here, the proposed optimization scheme uses obtainable future speed prediction as the basis to optimally tune control parameters for the existing powertrain control system. The ramp-up time of the catalyst temperature to reach its light-off level in the exhaust emission system is also considered as an additional optimization constraint to reduce emission. The Toyota Prius Hybrid Simulink model which is an integrated model for a powertrain and exhaust emission system is validated using real data from several real driving cycle scenarios. Then, to simplify the formulation of the proposed algorithm, the model for the optimization for powertrain and exhaust emission systems is represented by a set of equivalent neural network (NN) models learned using the data generated from the well-validated Toyota Prius Hybrid Simulink model. Using NN models, a co-optimization algorithm is established that provides an optimal tuning of some fuel-sensitive powertrain control parameters using future speed prediction, leading to a novel co-optimization algorithm, achieving on average a further 9.22% fuel savings for the Toyota Prius Hybrid Simulink model.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Practical Challenges in Real-Time Demand Response

We report on a real-time demand response experiment with 100 controllable devices. The experiment reveals several key challenges in the deployment of a real-time demand response program, including time delays, uncertainties, characterization errors, multiple timescales, and nonlinearity, which have been largely ignored in previous studies. To resolve these practical issues, we develop and implement a two-level multi-loop control structure integrating feed-forward proportional-integral controllers and optimization solvers in closed loops, which eliminates steady-state errors and improves the dynamical performance of the overall building response. Furthermore, the proposed methods are validated by Hardware-in-the-Loop (HiL) tests.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

CyDER: A Cyber Physical Co-simulation Platform for Distributed Energy Resources in Smartgrids

The CyDER project aimed at developing an open-source, modular and scalable co-simulation platform for power grids with large shares of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs). The project partners are the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore National Lab (LLNL), PG&E, SolarCity, and ChargePoint. The prime recipient is LBNL; SolarCity and ChargePoint were partners for the project’s first two years. Increased DER integration introduces a number of challenges in power grid operation including a more dynamic interaction between the transmission grid and distribution grids, and increased modeling complexity. Although specialized software exists to precisely model different components of the power system, it is far from trivial to integrate all various models and perform a holistic simulation. Instead of replicating all models in a common simulation program, a commonly accepted approach to tackle this model diversity is to couple third-party simulators and models through a co-simulation platform that coordinates information exchange among the various components. Following this line of research, this project’s objective was to develop a co-simulation platform based on a widely accepted industrial standard called Functional Mockup Interface (FMI). Within this process, the project developed models compliant with the FMI standard, called Functional Mockup Units (FMUs), and used them to perform various operational and planning power system analyses. Relying and building upon an industrial standard is the main differentiation of this project compared with previous or parallel efforts in the co-simulation area. Particular emphasis was put on delivering software utilities to facilitate setting up and running co-simulations by end-users. Furthermore, a strong aspect of this project is demonstrating that co-simulation techniques can be used to perform Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) simulations that couple software components (e.g., simulated models) with hardware components (e.g., real devices such PV systems and batteries). The long-term goal of CyDER project is to help establish FMI as a powerful standard for co-simulation and promote adoption by electric utilities and other interested stakeholders. The main accomplishments of the project include the development of several FMUs including distribution and transmission grid models, PV inverters with Volt/Var/Watt controllers, batteries, and predictive optimal controllers. Additionally, a unique software package was developed, called SimulatorToFMU, which is capable of exporting any Python-driven simulator or Python script as an FMU. This is an important contribution towards establishing FMI as one of the main co-simulation standards, because more and more third-party programs for sub-system modeling and simulation are delivered with Python APIs. The CyDER platform was used to perform PV hosting capacity analyses in real utility feeders with and without smart inverter controls, battery storage, and EV charging. Smart inverter controls include conventional Volt/Var/Watt controls for reactive power support and active power curtailment, but also predictive controls that optimize the charging and discharging profile of the battery connected on the DC side in order to minimize the customer’s economic benefit. Finally, an important result of this project is delivering an experimental setup that consists of residential-scale PV inverters with battery storage, a real-time grid simulator with an ideal voltage source as grid emulator, and micro Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs). All these components and additional software modules are coupled to one another using the FMI standard and can be co-simulated with the CyDER platform.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Digital Twin Framework for PIP-II Linac: AI-Driven Multi-Scale Modeling from Ion Source to 800 MeV

The PIP-II linac will enable >1.2 MW beam power for DUNE, requiring unprecedented operational reliability across its warm front-end (RFQ, MEBT) and five distinct SRF sections operating at 162.5/325/650 MHz. We present a comprehensive digital twin framework uniquely combining a fully differentiable fast beam transport code with neural network surrogates trained on high-fidelity PIC simulations, capturing space charge and nonlinear dynamics beyond traditional envelope codes while achieving 10⁴ speedup at <1% accuracy. End-to-end differentiability enables gradient-based optimization across 500+ parameters simultaneously previously impossible with conventional tools while the model incorporates static/dynamic errors and serves as a virtual commissioning platform for diverse hardware integration. The framework facilitates reinforcement learning for pulsed/CW mode transitions, predictive maintenance through anomaly detection, and autonomous tuning algorithm development with real-time execution capability. Validation against physics simulations shows excellent agreement for the front-end, with initial results demonstrating potential for 30% commissioning time reduction and proactive fault mitigation, providing a scalable blueprint for operating next-generation high-intensity accelerators.

Pathak, Abhishek [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000021704208↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fiber-Coupled Multipass NIR Sensor for In Situ, Real-Time Water Vapor Outgassing Monitoring

This work presents the recent development of a fiber-coupled multipass near-infrared (NIR) gas sensor used to monitor water vapor desorption of small material coupons. The gas sensor design employs a White cell topology to maximize the optical path length over a compact, hand-size footprint. Water vapor concentrations are quantified over a large dynamic range by simultaneously applying wavelength modulation and tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy techniques. A custom headspace optimized for material desorption experiments is assembled using commercially available vacuum chamber components. We provide in situ measurements of water vapor desorption from two geometries of the industrially important silicone elastomer Sylgard-184 as a case study for sensor viability. To corroborate the results, the gas sensor data are compared to numerical simulations based on a triple-mode diffusion–sorption model, consisting of Henry, Langmuir, and Pooling modes.

gas sensor↗
DOE OSTI2021

Change-point Detection and Image Segmentation for Time Series of Astrophysical Images

Many astrophysical phenomena are time-varying, in the sense that their intensity, energy spectrum, and/or the spatial distribution of the emission suddenly change. This paper develops a method for modeling a time series of images. Under the assumption that the arrival times of the photons follow a Poisson process, the data are binned into 4D grids of voxels (time, energy band, and x-y coordinates), and viewed as a time series of non-homogeneous Poisson images. The method assumes that at each time point, the corresponding multiband image stack is an unknown 3D piecewise constant function including Poisson noise. It also assumes that all image stacks between any two adjacent change points (in time domain) share the same unknown piecewise constant function. The proposed method is designed to estimate the number and the locations of all of the change points (in time domain), as well as all of the unknown piecewise constant functions between any pairs of the change points. The method applies the minimum description length principle to perform this task. A practical algorithm is also developed to solve the corresponding complicated optimization problem. Simulation experiments and applications to real data sets show that the proposed method enjoys very promising empirical properties. Applications to two real data sets, the XMM observation of a flaring star and an emerging solar coronal loop, illustrate the usage of the proposed method and the scientific insight gained from it.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7

Abstract. Previous phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) have primarily focused on simulations driven by atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), for both idealized model experiments and climate projections of different emissions scenarios. We argue that although this approach was practical to allow parallel development of Earth system model simulations and detailed socioeconomic futures, carbon cycle uncertainty as represented by diverse, process-resolving Earth system models (ESMs) is not manifested in the scenario outcomes, thus omitting a dominant source of uncertainty in meeting the Paris Agreement. Mitigation policy is defined in terms of human activity (including emissions), with strategies varying in their timing of net-zero emissions, the balance of mitigation effort between short-lived and long-lived climate forcers, their reliance on land use strategy, and the extent and timing of carbon removals. To explore the response to these drivers, ESMs need to explicitly represent complete cycles of major GHGs, including natural processes and anthropogenic influences. Carbon removal and sequestration strategies, which rely on proposed human management of natural systems, are currently calculated in integrated assessment models (IAMs) during scenario development with only the net carbon emissions passed to the ESM. However, proper accounting of the coupled system impacts of and feedback on such interventions requires explicit process representation in ESMs to build self-consistent physical representations of their potential effectiveness and risks under climate change. We propose that CMIP7 efforts prioritize simulations driven by CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use and projected deployment of carbon dioxide removal technologies, as well as land use and management, using the process resolution allowed by state-of-the-art ESMs to resolve carbon–climate feedbacks. Post-CMIP7 ambitions should aim to incorporate modeling of non-CO2 GHGs (in particular, sources and sinks of methane and nitrous oxide) and process-based representation of carbon removal options. These developments will allow three primary benefits: (1) resources to be allocated to policy-relevant climate projections and better real-time information related to the detectability and verification of emissions reductions and their relationship to expected near-term climate impacts, (2) scenario modeling of the range of possible future climate states including Earth system processes and feedbacks that are increasingly well-represented in ESMs, and (3) optimal utilization of the strengths of ESMs in the wider context of climate modeling infrastructure (which includes simple climate models, machine learning approaches and kilometer-scale climate models).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗