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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Accelerated Materials Design for Molten Salt Technologies Using Innovative High-Throughput Methods

The focus of the project is on building an innovative accelerated materials design platform for molten salt technologies using novel high-throughput methods coupled to data analytics. The main objectives is to predict a FeCrMnNi alloy compositional space with better corrosion resistance than stainless steel 316 and identify new molten salt corrosion mechanisms. The project demonstrates the feasibility to use high-throughput methods coupled to data analytics to accelerate alloy design for extreme environments applications. Using a trained and tested machine learning (ML) model, 2000 FeCrMnNi alloy corrosion rate in molten chloride salts were predicted and a compositional field with corrosion rate lower than 316 stainless steel was identified. The ML model interpretability unveiled multiple features of importance in the model prediction. Some features were expected to be of relative significance, such as work function, surface energy and alloy electronegativity, and the ML model interpretability analysis confirmed those. On the other hand, the most important feature is the diffusion coefficient of Ni in the bulk alloy which indicates that a surface diffusion mechanism plays an important role in the overall corrosion mechanism in molten salts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Tribomechadynamics Research Challenge: Confronting blind predictions for the linear and nonlinear dynamics of a thin-walled jointed structure with measurement results

The present article summarizes the submissions to the Tribomechadynamics Research Challenge announced in 2021. The task was a blind prediction of the vibration behavior of a system comprising a thin plate clamped on two sides via bolted joints. Both geometric and frictional contact nonlinearities are expected to be relevant. Provided were the CAD models and technical drawings of all parts as well as assembly instructions. The main objective was to predict the frequency and damping ratio of the lowest-frequency mode as function of the amplitude. Many different prediction approaches were pursued, ranging from well-known methods to very recently developed ones. After the submission deadline, the system has been fabricated and tested. The aim of this article is to evaluate the current state of the art in modeling and vibration prediction, and to provide directions for future methodological advancements.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Updating and Evaluating Anthropogenic Emissions for NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast Systems for Aerosols (GEFS-Aerosols): Application of an SO 2 Bias-Scaling Method

We updated the anthropogenic emissions inventory in NOAA’s operational Global Ensemble Forecast for Aerosols (GEFS-Aerosols) to improve the model’s prediction of aerosol optical depth (AOD). We used a methodology to quickly update the pivotal global anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions using a speciated AOD bias-scaling method. The AOD bias-scaling method is based on the latest model predictions compared to NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA2). The model bias was subsequently applied to the CEDS 2019 SO 2 emissions for adjustment. The monthly mean GEFS-Aerosols AOD predictions were evaluated against a suite of satellite observations (e.g., MISR, VIIRS, and MODIS), ground-based AERONET observations, and the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP) ensemble results. The results show that transitioning from CEDS 2014 to CEDS 2019 emissions data led to a significant improvement in the operational GEFS-Aerosols model performance, and applying the bias-scaled SO 2 emissions could further improve global AOD distributions. The biases of the simulated AODs against the observed AODs varied with observation type and seasons by a factor of 3~13 and 2~10, respectively. The global AOD distributions showed that the differences in the simulations against ICAP, MISR, VIIRS, and MODIS were the largest in March–May (MAM) and the smallest in December–February (DJF). When evaluating against the ground-truth AERONET data, the bias-scaling methods improved the global seasonal correlation (r), Index of Agreement (IOA), and mean biases, except for the MAM season, when the negative regional biases were exacerbated compared to the positive regional biases. The effect of bias-scaling had the most beneficial impact on model performance in the regions dominated by anthropogenic emissions, such as East Asia. However, it showed less improvement in other areas impacted by the greater relative transport of natural emissions sources, such as India. The accuracies of the reference observation or assimilation data for the adjusted inputs and the model physics for outputs, and the selection of regions with less seasonal emissions of natural aerosols determine the success of the bias-scaling methods. A companion study on emission scaling of anthropogenic absorbing aerosols needs further improved aerosol prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scalable deep learning for watershed model calibration

Watershed models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) consist of high-dimensional physical and empirical parameters. These parameters often need to be estimated/calibrated through inverse modeling to produce reliable predictions on hydrological fluxes and states. Existing parameter estimation methods can be time consuming, inefficient, and computationally expensive for high-dimensional problems. In this paper, we present an accurate and robust method to calibrate the SWAT model (i.e., 20 parameters) using scalable deep learning (DL). We developed inverse models based on convolutional neural networks (CNN) to assimilate observed streamflow data and estimate the SWAT model parameters. Scalable hyperparameter tuning is performed using high-performance computing resources to identify the top 50 optimal neural network architectures. We used ensemble SWAT simulations to train, validate, and test the CNN models. We estimated the parameters of the SWAT model using observed streamflow data and assessed the impact of measurement errors on SWAT model calibration. We tested and validated the proposed scalable DL methodology on the American River Watershed, located in the Pacific Northwest-based Yakima River basin. Our results show that the CNN-based calibration is better than two popular parameter estimation methods (i.e., the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation [GLUE] and the dynamically dimensioned search [DDS], which is a global optimization algorithm). For the set of parameters that are sensitive to the observations, our proposed method yields narrower ranges than the GLUE method but broader ranges than values produced using the DDS method within the sampling range even under high relative observational errors. The SWAT model calibration performance using the CNNs, GLUE, and DDS methods are compared using R 2 and a set of efficiency metrics, including Nash-Sutcliffe, logarithmic Nash-Sutcliffe, Kling-Gupta, modified Kling-Gupta, and non-parametric Kling-Gupta scores, computed on the observed and simulated watershed responses. The best CNN-based calibrated set has scores of 0.71, 0.75, 0.85, 0.85, 0.86, and 0.91. The best DDS-based calibrated set has scores of 0.62, 0.69, 0.8, 0.77, 0.79, and 0.82. The best GLUE-based calibrated set has scores of 0.56, 0.58, 0.71, 0.7, 0.71, and 0.8. The scores above show that the CNN-based calibration leads to more accurate low and high streamflow predictions than the GLUE and DDS sets. Our research demonstrates that the proposed method has high potential to improve our current practice in calibrating large-scale integrated hydrologic models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Study of self-interaction errors in density functional predictions of dipole polarizabilities and ionization energies of water clusters using Perdew-Zunger and locally scaled self-interaction corrected methods

Here, we studied the effects of self-interaction error (SIE) on the static dipole polarizabilities of water clusters modelled with three increasingly sophisticated, non-empirical density functional approximations (DFAs), viz. the local spin density approximation (LDA), the Perdew-Burke-Ernzherof (PBE) generalized-gradient approximation (GGA), and the strongly constrained and appropriately normed (SCAN) meta-GGA, using the Perdew-Zunger self-interaction-correction (PZ-SIC) energy functional in the Fermi-Lowdin orbital SIC (FLO-SIC) framework. Our results show that while all three DFAs overestimate the cluster polarizabilities, the description systematically improves from LDA to PBE to SCAN. The self-correlation free SCAN predicts polarizabilities quite accurately with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.58 Bohr 3 with respect to coupled cluster singles and doubles (CCSD) values. Removing SIE using PZ-SIC correctly reduces the DFA polarizabilities, but over-corrects, resulting in underestimated polarizabilities in SIC-LDA, -PBE, and -SCAN. Finally, we applied a recently proposed local-scaling SIC (LSIC) method using a quasi self-consistent scheme and using the kinetic energy density ratio as an iso-orbital indicator. The results show that the LSIC polarizabilities are in excellent agreement with mean absolute error of 0.08 Bohr 3 for LSIC-LDA and 0.06 Bohr 3 for LSIC-PBE with most recent CCSD polarizabilities. Likewise, the ionization energy estimates as an absolute of highest occupied energy eigenvalue predicted by LSIC are also in excellent agreement with CCSD(T) ionization energies with MAE of 0.4 eV for LSIC-LDA and 0.04 eV for LSIC-PBE. The LSIC-LDA predictions of ionization energies are comparable to the reported GW ionization energies while the LSIC-PBE ionization energies are more accurate than reported GW results.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Inter-well connectivity detection in CO 2 WAG projects using statistical recurrent unit models

Routine well-wise injection and production measurements contain significant information on subsurface structure and properties. Data-driven technology that interprets surface data into subsurface structure or properties can assist operators in making informed decisions by providing a better understanding of field assets. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO 2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. SRU is a special type of recurrent neural network (RNN) that allows for better characterization of temporal trends, by learning various statistics of the input at different time scales. In our application, the complete states (injection rate, pressure and cumulative injection) at injectors and pressure states at producers are fed to SRU as the input and the phase rates at producers are treated as the output. Once the SRU is trained and validated, it is then used to assess the connectivity of each injector to any producer using permutation variable importance method, wherein inputs corresponding to an injector are shuffled and the increase in prediction error at a given producer is recorded as the importance (connectivity metric) of the injector to the producer. This method is tested in both synthetic and field-scale cases. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. This significantly improves confidence in our data-driven procedure. The novelty of this work is that it is purely data-driven method and can directly interpret routine surface measurements to intuitive subsurface knowledge. Furthermore, the streamline-based validation procedure provides physics-based backing to the results obtained from data analytics. This study results in a reliable and efficient data analytics framework that is well-suited for large field applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

How the choice of exchange–correlation functional affects DFT-based simulations of the hydrated electron

Hydrated electrons are anionic species that are formed when an excess electron is introduced into liquid water. Building an understanding of how hydrated electrons behave in solution has been a long-standing effort of simulation methods, of which density functional theory (DFT) has come to the fore in recent years. The ability of DFT to model the reactive chemistry of hydrated electrons is an attractive advantage over semi-classical methodologies; however, relatively few density functional approximations (DFAs) have been used for the hydrated electron simulations presented in the literature. Here, we simulate hydrated electron systems using a series of exchange–correlation (XC) functionals spanning Jacob’s ladder. We calculate a variety of experimental and other observables of the hydrated electron and compare the XC functional dependence for each quantity. We find that the formation of a stable localized hydrated electron is not necessarily limited to hybrid XC functionals and that some hybrid functionals produce delocalized hydrated electrons or electrons that react with the surrounding water at an unphysically fast rate. Here, we further characterize how different DFAs impact the solvent structure and predicted spectroscopy of the hydrated electron, considering several methods for calculating the hydrated electron’s absorption spectrum for the best comparison between structures generated using different density functionals. None of the dozen or so DFAs that we investigated are able to correctly predict the hydrated electron’s spectroscopy, vertical detachment energy, or molar solvation volume.

Ab-initio molecular dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Extending Parsimonious Bayesian Inference

Parsimonious Bayesian inference is a theoretical framework for efficient data assimilation that seeks to balance increased consistency between predictions and training data against corresponding increases in model complexity. Within this framework, over-training is understood as optimization that encodes excessive information within model parameters while only achieving small improvements between predictions and training data. This project aims to develop practical methods of limiting excess model information during optimization. One key observation is that practical heuristics for parsimonious learning in high-dimensions must balance expressivity, i.e. the ability of the model to capture diverse predictions with only a few non-zero parameters, against discoverability, i.e. the ability to train the model with gradient-based optimization and drive parameters to low information states. As such, we developed logical activation functions that are able to adaptively approximate arbitrary truth tables that define Boolean logic operations within a probabilistic framework. These functions have demonstrated the ability to learn exclusive disjunction (XOR) and conditioned disjunction (if [condition] then [result_if_true] else [result_if_false]) within a single layer of a neural network. To efficiently exploit these activation functions to drive parsimonious learning required several other advances within the domain of variational inference. The most efficient form of complexity suppression is structured sparsification, driving most model parameters to zero while achieving the structural coherence among nonzeros needed for bandwidth reduction. Such models are not only far more efficient at suppressing information-theoretic complexity, they also reduce the other forms of complexity (computations, communication, storage, and the number of dependencies needed to evaluate predictions). Aiming to support enhanced sparsification, this project examined new approaches to high-dimensional variational inference that allow us to calibrate and control parameter uncertainty during optimization. By identifying which parameters can sustain sparsifying perturbations with little impact on prediction quality, we can develop better pruning strategies by framing them as approximate Bayesian inference. These advances also open paths to mitigate concerns with deploying advanced learning methods in resource-constrained environments, such as running models on power-limited or communication-limited devices.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

In with the old, in with the new: machine learning for time to event biomedical research

The predictive modeling literature for biomedical applications is dominated by biostatistical methods for survival analysis, and more recently some out of the box machine learning approaches. In this article, we show a presentation of a machine learning method appropriate for time-to-event modeling in the area of prostate cancer long-term disease progression. Using XGBoost adapted to long-term disease progression, we developed a predictive model for 118 788 patients with localized prostate cancer at diagnosis from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). Our model accounted for patient censoring. Harrell’s c-index for our model using only features available at the time of diagnosis was 0.757 95% confidence interval [0.756, 0.757]. Our results show that machine learning methods like XGBoost can be adapted to use accelerated failure time (AFT) with censoring to model long-term risk of disease progression. Furthermore, the long median survival justifies and requires censoring. Overall, we show that an existing machine learning approach can be used for AFT outcome modeling in prostate cancer, and more generally for other chronic diseases with long observation times.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of softening kinetics and recrystallization texture in non-isothermally annealed bulged tubes using CPFEM and CA models

A hierarchically coupled cellular automata (CA) model, crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM), and thermal finite element (FE) model is developed to predict the softening kinetics of the bulged steel tube during non-isothermal annealing. Through the developed model, the kinetics of softening mechanisms including static recovery (SRV) and static recrystallization (SRX), as well as the recrystallization texture are predicted. Later, the Johnson-Mehl-Avrami-Kohnogorov (JMAK) model based on the predicted SRX data is developed to interpret the recrystallization behavior of the material. To perform this study, diverse experimental tests including tube hydroforming (THF), annealing, uniaxial tensile test, hardness test, as well as microstructure observations through optical microscopy and Electron Backscatter Diffraction (EBSD) tests on steel tube are performed. The obtained experimental data are utilized to calibrate and verify the implemented CPFEM model for simulation of THF process, thermal FE model for prediction of the local temperature over annealing time, and CA algorithm for modeling of the softening kinetics and texture evolution throughout the annealing process. The study shows that the predicted deformation characteristics, softening kinetics, recrystallization texture and temperature profile during non-isothermal annealing are in good agreement with experimental data. During the annealing process, a total of four stages for the kinetics of softening mechanisms is observed: No softening; SRV only; SRV dominant; and SRX dominant. During the progress of SRX, the behavior of recrystallization is abruptly changed, confirming that two different mechanisms are controlling the kinetics of transformation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Review of the Effects of Polymer Binder Properties on Microstructure and Irreversible Volume Growth of Plastic Bonded Explosives Formulations

The rational design of effective polymeric binders for the formulation of plastic-bonded explosives (PBX) is challenging due to their inherent compositional complexity. The composites comprise irregularly shaped energetic material (EM) powders coated with low weight fractions of polymer via non-equilibrium processes such as slurry coating. Defects can deleteriously affect PBX stability and performance: nano- to micrometer-scale voids can act as loci for hot spots, lowering deflagration and detonation temperatures in unpredictable ways. Furthermore, some nominally desirable polymer properties are at odds with each other: e. g. good flow characteristics are desirable for coating and adhesion, but mechanical stiffness is needed to prevent deformation and cracking of PBX under mechanical stress. Good binder adhesion is critical, but the best means to predict and measure adhesion in PBX is not obvious. Experimental methods of determining binder adhesion on model surfaces may not capture polymer structural configurations relevant to deposition during coating. Molecular dynamics-based computational models have predicted key observables in PBX formulation, suggesting that they may be powerful tools for binder selection. In this review, primarily recent (~2006 and later) literature on polymeric binders for insensitive HE (IHE) is surveyed. We focus on how binder properties influence observable PBX properties as resistance to irreversible volume growth and void formation in PBX formulations mainly (but not exclusively) featuring 1,3,5-triamino-2,4,6-trinitrobenzene (TATB) as the EM (e. g. PBX 9502, LX-17 and others). Conclusions from these studies yield useful guidelines for choosing HE binder candidates, as well as for the general design of highly-filled polymer composite materials. Finally, studies describing challenges in PBX formulation with the newer and more energetically dense high explosive, LLM-105, will be discussed.

adhesion↗
DOE OSTI2020

Extracting and Generating PV Soiling Profiles for Analysis, Forecasting, and Cleaning Optimization

The identification and prediction of the daily soiling profiles of a photovoltaic site is essential to plan the optimal cleaning schedule. In this article, we analyze and propose various methods to extract and generate photovoltaic soiling profiles, in order to improve the analysis and the forecast of the losses. New soiling rate extraction methods are proposed to reflect the seasonal variability of the soiling rates and, for this reason, are found to identify the most convenient cleaning day with the highest accuracy for the investigated sites. Also, we present an approach that could be used to predict future soiling losses through the implementation of stochastic weather generation algorithms whose ability to identify in advance the best cleaning schedule is also successfully tested. The methods presented in this article can optimize the operation and maintenance schedule and could make it possible, in the future, to predict soiling losses through analysis based only on environmental parameters, such as rainfall and particulate matter, without the need of long-term soiling data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards stacking fault energy engineering in FCC high entropy alloys

Stacking Fault Energy (SFE) is an intrinsic alloy property that governs much of the plastic deformation mechanisms observed in fcc alloys. While SFE has been recognized for many years as a key intrinsic mechanical property, its inference via experimental observations or prediction using, for example, computationally intensive first-principles methods is challenging. This difficulty precludes the explicit use of SFE as an alloy design parameter. In this work, we combine DFT calculations (with necessary configurational averaging), machine-learning (ML) and physics-based models to predict the SFE in the fcc CoCrFeMnNiV-Al high-entropy alloy space. The best-performing ML model is capable of accurately predicting the SFE of arbitrary compositions within this 7-element system. Finally, this efficient model along with a recently developed model to estimate intrinsic strength of fcc HEAs is used to explore the strength–SFE Pareto front, predicting new-candidate alloys with particularly interesting mechanical behavior.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of Multiplexed Immuno-N-Terminomics to Reveal the Landscape of Proteolytic Processing in Early Embryogenesis of Drosophila melanogaster

Protein expression levels are regulated through both translation and degradation mechanisms. Levels of degradation intermediates, i.e., partially degraded proteins, cannot be distinguished from those of intact proteins by global proteomics analysis, which quantify total protein abundance levels. This study aimed to develop a tool for assessing the aspects of degradation regulation via proteolytic processing through a new multiplexed N-terminomics method involving selective isobaric labeling of protein N-termini and immunoaffinity capture of the labeled N-terminal peptides. Our method allows for not only identification or proteolytic cleavage sites, but also highly multiplexed quantification of proteolytic processing. In this paper, we profiled a number of potential cleavage sites by signal peptidase and provided experimental confirmation of predicted cleavage sites of signal peptide. Furthermore, the present method uniquely represents the landscape of proteomic proteolytic processing rate during early embryogenesis in Drosophila melanogaster, revealing the underlying mechanism of stringent decay regulation of zygotically expressed proteins during early stages of embryogenesis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncovering the predictive pathways of lithium and sodium interchange in layered oxides

Ion exchange is a powerful method to access metastable materials with advanced functionalities for energy storage applications. However, high concentrations and unfavourably large excesses of lithium are always used for synthesizing lithium cathodes from parent sodium material, and the reaction pathways remain elusive. Here, using layered oxides as model materials, we demonstrate that vacancy level and its corresponding lithium preference are critical in determining the accessible and inaccessible ion exchange pathways. Taking advantage of the strong lithium preference at the right vacancy level, we establish predictive compositional and structural evolution at extremely dilute and low excess lithium based on the phase equilibrium between Li 0.94 CoO 2 and Na 0.48 CoO 2 . Such phase separation behaviour is general in both surface reaction-limited and diffusion-limited exchange conditions and is accomplished with the charge redistribution on transition metals. Guided by this understanding, we demonstrate the synthesis of Na y CoO 2 from the parent Li x CoO 2 and the synthesis of Li 0.94 CoO 2 from Na y CoO 2 at 1-1,000 Li/Na (molar ratio) with an electrochemical assisted ion exchange method by mitigating the kinetic barriers. Our study opens new opportunities for ion exchange in predictive synthesis and separation applications. Ion exchange is a powerful method to access metastable materials for energy storage, but identifying lithium and sodium interchange in layered oxides remains challenging. Using such model materials, vacancy level and corresponding lithium preference are shown to be crucial for ion exchange pathway accessibility.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Similarity Downselection: Finding the n Most Dissimilar Molecular Conformers for Reference-Free Metabolomics

Computational methods for creating in silico libraries of molecular descriptors (e.g., collision cross sections) are becoming increasingly prevalent due to the limited number of authentic reference materials available for traditional library building. These so-called “reference-free metabolomics” methods require sampling sets of molecular conformers in order to produce high accuracy property predictions. Due to the computational cost of the subsequent calculations for each conformer, there is a need to sample the most relevant subset and avoid repeating calculations on conformers that are nearly identical. The goal of this study is to introduce a heuristic method of finding the most dissimilar conformers from a larger population in order to help speed up reference-free calculation methods and maintain a high property prediction accuracy. Finding the set of the n items most dissimilar from each other out of a larger population becomes increasingly difficult and computationally expensive as either n or the population size grows large. Because there exists a pairwise relationship between each item and all other items in the population, finding the set of the n most dissimilar items is different than simply sorting an array of numbers. For instance, if you have a set of the most dissimilar n = 4 items, one or more of the items from n = 4 might not be in the set n = 5. An exact solution would have to search all possible combinations of size n in the population exhaustively. We present an open-source software called similarity downselection (SDS), written in Python and freely available on GitHub. SDS implements a heuristic algorithm for quickly finding the approximate set(s) of the n most dissimilar items. We benchmark SDS against a Monte Carlo method, which attempts to find the exact solution through repeated random sampling. We show that for SDS to find the set of n most dissimilar conformers, our method is not only orders of magnitude faster, but it is also more accurate than running Monte Carlo for 1,000,000 iterations, each searching for set sizes n = 3–7 out of a population of 50,000. We also benchmark SDS against the exact solution for example small populations, showing that SDS produces a solution close to the exact solution in these instances. Using theoretical approaches, we also demonstrate the constraints of the greedy algorithm and its efficacy as a ratio to the exact solution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Trust in Artificial Intelligence: Meta-Analytic Findings

Objective The present meta-analysis sought to determine significant factors that predict trust in artificial intelligence (AI). Such factors were divided into those relating to (a) the human trustor, (b) the AI trustee, and (c) the shared context of their interaction. Background There are many factors influencing trust in robots, automation, and technology in general, and there have been several meta-analytic attempts to understand the antecedents of trust in these areas. However, no targeted meta-analysis has been performed examining the antecedents of trust in AI. Method Data from 65 articles examined the three predicted categories, as well as the subcategories of human characteristics and abilities, AI performance and attributes, and contextual tasking. Lastly, four common uses for AI (i.e., chatbots, robots, automated vehicles, and nonembodied, plain algorithms) were examined as further potential moderating factors. Results Results showed that all of the examined categories were significant predictors of trust in AI as well as many individual antecedents such as AI reliability and anthropomorphism, among many others. Conclusion Overall, the results of this meta-analysis determined several factors that influence trust, including some that have no bearing on AI performance. Additionally, we highlight the areas where there is currently no empirical research. Application Findings from this analysis will allow designers to build systems that elicit higher or lower levels of trust, as they require.

Behavioral Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Optical and Infrared Are Connected

Galaxies are often modeled as composites of separable components with distinct spectral signatures, implying that different wavelength ranges are only weakly correlated. They are not. We present a data-driven model that exploits subtle correlations between physical processes to accurately predict infrared (IR) Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) photometry from a neural summary of optical Sloan Digital Sky Survey spectra. The model achieves accuracies of $χ^{2}_{N} ≈ 1$ for all photometric bands in WISE, as well as good colors. We are able to tightly constrain typically IR-derived properties, e.g., the bolometric luminosities of active galactic nuclei (AGN) and dust parameters such as q PAH . We also test whether current spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting methods reproduce such panchromatic relations, but find their predictions biased and overconfident, likely due to model misspecification, with correlated biases in star-formation rates (SFRs) and AGN luminosities being most evident. To help improve SED models, we determine which features of the optical spectrum are responsible for our improved predictions, and identify several lines (Ca II , Sr II , Fe I , [O II ], and Hα), which point to the complex chronology of star formation and chemical enrichment being incorrectly modeled.

Jespersen, Christian Kragh [Princeton Univ., NJ (U↗