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NASA NTRS2015

On the Reconstruction of Palaeo-Ice Sheets: Recent Advances and Future Challenges

Reconstructing the growth and decay of palaeo-ice sheets is critical to understanding mechanisms of global climate change and associated sea-level fluctuations in the past, present and future. The significance of palaeo-ice sheets is further underlined by the broad range of disciplines concerned with reconstructing their behaviour, many of which have undergone a rapid expansion since the 1980s. In particular, there has been a major increase in the size and qualitative diversity of empirical data used to reconstruct and date ice sheets, and major improvements in our ability to simulate their dynamics in numerical ice sheet models. These developments have made it increasingly necessary to forge interdisciplinary links between sub-disciplines and to link numerical modelling with observations and dating of proxy records. The aim of this paper is to evaluate recent developments in the methods used to reconstruct ice sheets and outline some key challenges that remain, with an emphasis on how future work might integrate terrestrial and marine evidence together with numerical modelling. Our focus is on pan-ice sheet reconstructions of the last deglaciation, but regional case studies are used to illustrate methodological achievements, challenges and opportunities. Whilst various disciplines have made important progress in our understanding of ice-sheet dynamics, it is clear that data-model integration remains under-used, and that uncertainties remain poorly quantified in both empirically-based and numerical ice-sheet reconstructions. The representation of past climate will continue to be the largest source of uncertainty for numerical modelling. As such, palaeo-observations are critical to constrain and validate modelling. State-of-the-art numerical models will continue to improve both in model resolution and in the breadth of inclusion of relevant processes, thereby enabling more accurate and more direct comparison with the increasing range of palaeo-observations. Thus, the capability is developing to use all relevant palaeo-records to more strongly constrain deglacial (and to a lesser extent pre-LGM) ice sheet evolution. In working towards that goal, the accurate representation of uncertainties is required for both constraint data and model outputs. Close cooperation between modelling and data-gathering communities is essential to ensure this capability is realised and continues to progress.

Ice sheet reconstruction↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bacterial and fungal composition and exometabolites control the development and persistence of soil water repellency

Soil water repellency (SWR), the reduced affinity of soil for water, is a phenomenon that affects soils globally. With worsening climate change, SWR is expected to increase emphasizing the need to understand the mechanisms driving SWR development and persistence. The importance of the soil microbes in SWR has been postulated for decades, but limited research has been conducted into whole-community interactions and the role of community metabolic activity. To address this gap in knowledge, we investigated the direct effect of microbial community composition, activity, and diversity, as well as their associated metabolites on the development and persistence of SWR by inoculating microcosms containing model soils with 15 different microbial communities and quantified respiration and SWR over time. Six communities that consistently produced either a hydrophobic or hydrophilic phenotype were characterized using metagenomics and metabolomics to determine the impact of microbial and metabolite composition and diversity on SWR. We identified several bacterial genera with significant changes in abundance between SWR phenotypes including Nocardiopsis and Kocuria in hydrophilic and Streptomyces and Cutibacterium in hydrophobic. We discovered that hydrophilic communities were more positively connected when compared to hydrophobic communities, which could be due to an increase in defense mechanism genes. Additionally, we identified specific metabolites associated with hydrophilic and hydrophobic phenotypes including an increase in the osmolyte ectoine in hydrophilic and an increase in plant-derived decomposition products in hydrophobic communities. Finally, our research suggests that fungi, previously thought to cause hydrophobicity, may actually contribute to hydrophilicity through their preferential consumption of hydrophobic compounds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Flood hazard model calibration using multiresolution model output

Riverine floods pose a considerable risk to many communities. Improving flood hazard projections has the potential to inform the design and implementation of flood risk management strategies. Current flood hazard projections are uncertain, especially due to uncertain model parameters. Calibration methods use observations to quantify model parameter uncertainty. With limited computational resources, researchers typically calibrate models using either relatively few expensive model runs at high spatial resolutions or many cheaper runs at lower spatial resolutions. This leads to an open question: is it possible to effectively combine information from the high and low resolution model runs? We propose a Bayesian emulation–calibration approach that assimilates model outputs and observations at multiple resolutions. As a case study for a riverine community in Pennsylvania, we demonstrate our approach using the LISFLOOD-FP flood hazard model. Here, the multiresolution approach results in improved parameter inference over the single resolution approach in multiple scenarios. Results vary based on the parameter values and the number of available models runs. Our method is general and can be used to calibrate other high dimensional computer models to improve projections.

multiresolution↗

DOE OSTI2023

LA100 Equity Strategies. Chapter 7: Housing Weatherization and Resilience

The LA100 Equity Strategies project integrates community guidance with robust research, modeling, and analysis to identify strategy options that can increase equitable outcomes in Los Angeles' clean energy transition. This chapter focuses on housing weatherization and access to cooling as means to achieve more equitable resilience to heat waves during unplanned power outages. Specifically, NREL used weather, housing, and socioeconomic data to characterize LA's residential building stock. We?developed a residential building stock model to simulate the energy use of 50,000 dwellings representing the diversity of housing types, appliances, climate zones, and household incomes across Los Angeles. We then simulated and evaluated the impacts of 10 building envelope and cooling upgrades on indoor temperature - a main cause of heat-induced health risks-over a 4-day power outage during a heat wave. We examined occupant exposure to extreme heat and how heat exposure changes with each upgrade across income, tenure (renter/owner status), building type, and disadvantaged community (DAC) status. We also examined upgrade costs and utility bills. Based on the results of our analysis and community guidance, we identified building envelope upgrades and cooling strategies that could save lives and maintain safe home temperatures for LA's low-income households in the event of a planned or unplanned power outage during a summer heat wave. Research was guided by input from the community engagement process, and associated equity strategies are presented in alignment with that guidance.

building envelope↗

NASA NTRS2018

GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecast System: ENSO Prediction Skill and Bias

The GEOS-5 AOGCM known as S2S-1.0 has been in service from June 2012 through January 2018 (Borovikov et al. 2017). The atmospheric component of S2S-1.0 is Fortuna-2.5, the same that was used for the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), but with adjusted parameterization of moist processes and turbulence. The ocean component is the Modular Ocean Model version 4 (MOM4). The sea ice component is the Community Ice CodE, version 4 (CICE). The land surface model is a catchment-based hydrological model coupled to the multi-layer snow model. The AGCM uses a Cartesian grid with a 1 deg × 1.25 deg horizontal resolution and 72 hybrid vertical levels with the upper most level at 0.01 hPa. OGCM nominal resolution of the tripolar grid is 1/2 deg, with a meridional equatorial refinement to 1/4 deg. In the coupled model initialization, selected atmospheric variables are constrained with MERRA. The Goddard Earth Observing System integrated Ocean Data Assimilation System (GEOS-iODAS) is used for both ocean state and sea ice initialization. SST, T and S profiles and sea ice concentration were assimilated.

GEOS-↗

DOE OSTI2024

Description of FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target: Development of an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment

The urgency to deliver fusion power is growing now more than ever, with increasing pressure for both public programs and private companies to meet milestones timelines and overcome significant remaining technical challenges to ensure growth of a nascent fusion industry in time to meet rapidly growing clean energy demands. With incredible advancements in computation and years of investment in fusion model development and validation, integrated modeling is poised to fill a key role in accelerating the timeline to a fusion pilot plant (FPP). Future fusion pilot plants will operate in regimes far beyond current experience, and device design will rely on physics-based prediction and extrapolation. Many concepts will also rely on simulation to assess safety (shielding, tritium management, materials activation and lifetimes), economics and scalability before the decision to build. Importantly, integrated simulation can be used to reveal and solve the complexities of system integration that may otherwise not be apparent in physical components or models developed in isolation. New experimental test facilities that produce relevant conditions to validate and resolve key technical challenges for various subsystems (materials, blankets, fuel cycle, etc.) have been repeatedly called for by the fusion community but are not yet realized. Integrated modeling has an important role in identifying realistic load conditions (thermal, electromagnetic, plasma, neutron and photon loads, etc.) and defining the components and experiments for these test facilities in order to ensure meaningful validation that sufficiently reduces modeling uncertainties and technical risk for the full integrated reactor. The Fusion REactor Design and Assessment (FREDA) SciDAC project is building a component-based integrated modeling framework & data structure to enable self-consistent, multi-fidelity, iterative optimization workflows for the fusion reactor design process. FREDA aims to shorten the time to viable designs by providing a set of flexible workflows to support the various stages of the design process using an integrated model hierarchy, ranging from the simple analytic descriptions to the highest fidelity, theory-based plasma and engineering modeling developed by the fusion and fission communities. These tools are expected to be needed for timely support of FPP design in the milestone program and in the FIRE collaboratives. The plasma simulation backbone of FREDA is IPS-FASTRAN with newly developed coupled Core-Edge Pedestal-SOL (CESOL) workflows, which is being extended to the far-SOL region up to the plasma facing components. FREDA incorporates the FERMI engineering modeling suite and will enable self-consistent evaluation of the thermal shields, limiters, blanket, magnets, and other surrounding structures with predictions of temperatures, erosion, dpa, activation, tritium generation and transport, creep, corrosion, material degradation, etc. Parametric generation of 3D CAD enables rapid iteration of component geometry in response to plasma and loading specifications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS2019

Developing a soil inversion model framework for regional permafrost monitoring

Currently, the community lacks capabilities to assess and monitor landscape scale permafrost active layer dynamics over large extents. To address this need, we developed a concept of a remote sensing based Soil Inversion Model for regional Permafrost (SIM-P) monitoring. The current SIM-P framework includes a satellite-based soil process model and a soil dielectric model. We are also working on incorporating a radar scattering model for Arctic tundra into the SIM-P framework. A unified soil parameterization scheme was developed to harmonize key soil thermal, hydraulic and dielectric parameters in the soil process and radar models that can be used in the joint soil-radar inversion framework. The soil parameter retrievals of the SIM-P framework include soil organic content (SOC) and active layer thickness (ALT). Initial tests of SIM-P using in-situ soil permittivity observations showed reasonable accuracy in predicting site-level SOC and soil temperature profiles at an Alaska tundra site and ALT in Arctic Alaska. SIM-P will be further tested using airborne P- and L-band radar data collected during NASA’s Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) to evaluate the sensitivity of longwave radar to active layer properties.

Miller, Charles E.↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Iowa Tribe of Kansas and Nebraska: Advancing Clean, Resilient, and Sovereign Energy (Summary Report of Communities LEAP Activities)

The Iowa Tribe of Kansas and Nebraska (ITKN) is a federally recognized Native American Tribe located along the Missouri River on the border of northeast Kansas and southeastern Nebraska. There are over 800 residents (Tribal citizens and non-Tribal) who live on the reservation, as well as more than 500 people who visit or work on the reservation on a daily basis. The ITKN faces many energy challenges, including rising service costs and dozens of power outages annually that impact resident well-being and business activities on Tribal lands. Power service issues are made more challenging by the remoteness of the reservation, which is 20 miles from the nearest town. Despite this, the ITKN has a long history of cultural and economic resilience: Local self-reliance, environmental stewardship, respecting the carrying capacity of the land, and strengthening the community are Tribal communities' traditional strengths. Long-term energy goals for the ITKN are centered around achieving energy sovereignty. Priority actions include: (1) Establishing a Tribal Utility Authority (TUA) to promote social welfare and community development.; (2) Deploying renewable community microgrids with ground-mount solar arrays and sustainable energy storage systems to advance energy sovereignty, resilience, and reliability. To advance these goals, the ITKN partnered with the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Communities LEAP (Local Energy Action Program) pilot. From August 2022 to March 2024, the ITKN community coalition collaborated with technical assistance providers at DOE's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Sandia National Laboratories to evaluate TUA planning needs and microgrid deployment scenarios. This final report details the Communities LEAP technical assistance process, models and analysis performed, and results.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2012

Development of a High Resolution Weather Forecast Model for Mesoamerica Using the NASA Ames Code I Private Cloud Computing Environment

Two projects at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center have collaborated to develop a high resolution weather forecast model for Mesoamerica: The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, which integrates unique NASA satellite and weather forecast modeling capabilities into the operational weather forecasting community. NASA's SERVIR Program, which integrates satellite observations, ground-based data, and forecast models to improve disaster response in Central America, the Caribbean, Africa, and the Himalayas.

Molthan, Andrew↗

NASA NTRS2022

Building a Land Data Assimilation Community to Tackle Technical Challenges in Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainty in Land Model Predictions

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

Land↗

DOE OSTI2021

An evolutionary algorithm for designing microbial communities via environmental modification

Despite a growing understanding of how environmental composition affects microbial communities, it remains difficult to apply this knowledge to the rational design of synthetic multispecies consortia. This is because natural microbial communities can harbour thousands of different organisms and environmental substrates, making up a vast combinatorial space that precludes exhaustive experimental testing and computational prediction. Here, we present a method based on the combination of machine learning and metabolic modelling that selects optimal environmental compositions to produce target community phenotypes. In this framework, dynamic flux balance analysis is used to model the growth of a community in candidate environments. A genetic algorithm is then used to evaluate the behaviour of the community relative to a target phenotype, and subsequently adjust the environment to allow the organisms to approach this target. We apply this iterative process to thousands of in silico communities of varying sizes, showing how it can rapidly identify environments that yield desired taxonomic compositions and patterns of metabolic exchange. Moreover, this combination of approaches produces testable predictions for the assembly of experimental microbial communities with specific properties and can facilitate rational environmental design processes for complex microbiomes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Protist diversity and community complexity in the rhizosphere of switchgrass are dynamic as plants develop

Abstract Background Despite their widespread distribution and ecological importance, protists remain one of the least understood components of the soil and rhizosphere microbiome. Knowledge of the roles that protists play in stimulating organic matter decomposition and shaping microbiome dynamics continues to grow, but there remains a need to understand the extent to which biological and environmental factors mediate protist community assembly and dynamics. We hypothesize that protists communities are filtered by the influence of plants on their rhizosphere biological and physicochemical environment, resulting in patterns of protist diversity and composition that mirror previously observed diversity and successional dynamics in rhizosphere bacterial communities. Results We analyzed protist communities associated with the rhizosphere and bulk soil of switchgrass (SG) plants ( Panicum virgatum ) at different phenological stages, grown in two marginal soils as part of a large-scale field experiment. Our results reveal that the diversity of protists is lower in rhizosphere than bulk soils, and that temporal variations depend on soil properties but are less pronounced in rhizosphere soil. Patterns of significantly prevalent protists groups in the rhizosphere suggest that most protists play varied ecological roles across plant growth stages and that some plant pathogenic protists and protists with omnivorous diets reoccur over time in the rhizosphere. We found that protist co-occurrence network dynamics are more complex in the rhizosphere compared to bulk soil. A phylogenetic bin-based null model analysis showed that protists’ community assembly in our study sites is mainly controlled by homogenous selection and dispersal limitation, with stronger selection in rhizosphere than bulk soil as SG grew and senesced. Conclusions We demonstrate that environmental filtering is a dominant determinant of overall protist community properties and that at the rhizosphere level, plant control on the physical and biological environment is a critical driver of protist community composition and dynamics. Since protists are key contributors to plant nutrient availability and bacterial community composition and abundance, mapping and understanding their patterns in rhizosphere soil is foundational to understanding the ecology of the root-microbe-soil system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evolutionary Stability of Microbial Mutualism in Simulated Microgravity

Sustainable long-term space travel will require astronauts to live in built environments cohabited by microbes. Though much of space biology research has focused on microbial monocultures, microbes naturally live in multispecies communities in which they compete and cooperate. Understanding how communities experience spaceflight over generations can influence sanitation measures and the design of synthetic communities for applications in spaceflight. In this study, we investigated the evolutionary stability of mutualism in multispecies communities in microgravity using a model system of cooperating microbes. Our model consisted of bioengineered strains of mutually dependent E. coli and S. enterica. E. coli metabolized lactose and produced a carbon source for S. enterica, which secreted methionine for E. coli. By introducing a noncooperative ("cheater") strain of S. enterica, we tested the dynamic stability of mutualism. Using a rotating wall vessel, we simulated microgravity, specifically a low-shear, diffusion-limited environment where metabolite transfer is limited compared to 1g conditions. Fluorescent motile and non-motile strains were used to assess how motility affects the microbial experience of microgravity. We hypothesized that mutualism in non-motile cocultures would be favored in microgravity due to the diffusion-limited spatial structure, while motile strains would show less difference between simulated microgravity and other conditions. We cultured communities for approximately 20 generations and assessed community composition over time using flow cytometry. We compared simulated microgravity to cultures grown in agar plates as spatially structured controls, shaken flasks as well-mixed controls, and still flasks representing the convective mixing of 1g. A high, sustained cooperator-to-cheater ratio represented stable mutualism within the community. Our results show that microbial communities may better maintain mutualism in microgravity compared to their counterparts in 1g conditions and that the motility of a community’s constituents influences how the community experiences microgravity on generational timescales.

Nathan Moreno↗

DOE OSTI2025

Seeing the forest for all the trees: Mycorrhizal‐associated nutrient economies are modulated by stem density and the synchrony between overstorey and understorey communities

1. Identifying relationships between plant communities and soil characteristics is a critical step in understanding the consequences of species gains and losses in ecosystems. The mycorrhizal associated nutrient economy (MANE) hypothesis predicts that the degree to which tree species and their mycorrhizal associates affect soil properties is driven by the relative dominance of different mycorrhizal types (often measured by relative basal area). While this approach emphasizes the importance of canopy trees, it does not account for how other factors (e.g. the density and composition of understorey trees) may alter tree–soil relationships. 2. We analysed tree–soil data from an eastern deciduous forest in southern Indiana, USA that contains >29,000 georeferenced stems, including 21 species that associate with arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi and 14 that associate with ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi. We sampled soils (upper 5 cm) from across the plot and modelled soil characteristics to tree communities. Given differences in soil characteristics among AM-dominated and ECM-dominated neighbourhoods, we hypothesized that relationships between tree-mycorrhizal dominance and soils would be affected by both the density of stems in the plot (owing to ‘Zinke’ individual plant effects) and composition of the understorey trees (owing to ‘trait divergence effects’) 3. In support of our Zinke hypothesis, we found that the relationships between tree-mycorrhizal dominance and soil variables (soil pH, nitrification rates and carbon to nitrogen ratio) were strengthened as stand density increased. In support of the trait divergence hypothesis, we found that as the mismatch between overstorey and understorey composition increased (e.g. AM-dominated understories beneath ECM-dominated overstories and vice versa), the relationship between tree dominance and soil variables weakened. We were able to use these insights to create mycorrhizal metrics to predict soil variables that were sensitive to the structural composition of neighbourhoods. 4. Synthesis. Our results indicate that relationships between plants and soils in forests are not only shaped by dominant overstorey trees but also the density and composition of understorey trees. Thus, efforts to predict the ecosystem consequences of species gains and losses may benefit from considering these elements of forest structure and not only the basal area of the dominant trees.

MANE framework↗

DOE OSTI2023

Process-Oriented Diagnostics: Principles, Practice, Community Development, and Common Standards

Process-oriented diagnostics (PODs) aim to provide feedback for model developers through model analysis based on physical hypotheses. However, the step from a diagnostic based on relationships among variables, even when hypothesis driven, to specific guidance for revising model formulation or parameterizations can be substantial. The POD may provide more information than a purely performance-based metric, but a gap between POD principles and providing actionable information for specific model revisions can remain. Furthermore, in coordinating diagnostics development, there is a trade-off between freedom for the developer, aiming to capture innovation, and near-term utility to the modeling center. Best practices that allow for the former, while conforming to specifications that aid the latter, are important for community diagnostics development that leads to tangible model improvements. Promising directions to close the gap between principles and practice include the interaction of PODs with perturbed physics experiments and with more quantitative process models as well as the inclusion of personnel from modeling centers in diagnostics development groups for immediate feedback during climate model revisions. Examples are provided, along with best-practice recommendations, based on practical experience from the NOAA Model Diagnostics Task Force (MDTF). Common standards for metrics and diagnostics that have arisen from a collaboration between the MDTF and the Department of Energy’s Coordinated Model Evaluation Capability are advocated as a means of uniting community diagnostics efforts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2000

Controlling Microbial Byproducts using Model-Based Substrate Monitoring and Control Strategies

We have developed a computer-controlled bioreactor system to study various aspects of microbially-mediated nitrogen cycling. The system has been used to investigate methods for controlling microbial denitrification (the dissimilatory reduction of nitrate to N2O and N2) in hydroponic plant growth chambers. Such chambers are key elements of advanced life support systems being designed for use on long duration space missions, but nitrogen use efficiency in them is reduced by denitrification. Control software architecture was designed which permits the heterogeneous control of system hardware using traditional feedback control, and quantitative and qualitative models of various system features. Model-based feed forward control entails prediction of future systems in states and automated regulation of system parameters to achieve desired and avoid undesirable system states. A bacterial growth rate model based on the classic Monod model of saturation kinetics was used to evaluate the response of several individual denitrifying species to varying environmental conditions. The system and models are now being applied to mixed microbial communities harvested from the root zone of a hydroponic growth chamber. The use of a modified Monod organism interaction model was evaluated as a means of achieving more accurate description of the dynamic behavior of the communities. A minimum variance parameter estimation routine was also' used to calibrate the constant parameters in the model by iterative evaluation of substrate (nitrate) uptake and growth kinetics. This representation of processes and interactions aids in the formulation of control laws. The feed forward control strategy being developed will increase system autonomy, reduce crew intervention and limit the accumulation of undesirable waste products (NOx).

Smernoff, David T.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Geometric Scale-up Experiments on Fluidization of Geldart B Glass Beads

The objective of this work is to provide a valuable database from controlled experiments for validating computational models. Recently, coarse-grained techniques such as particle-in-cell (PIC) or coarse-grained discrete element modeling (DEM) have gained popularity due to their computational efficiency while modeling large-scale systems; however, the influence of model parameters and their sensitivities at different geometric scales and flow conditions remain to be analyzed. These datasets are critical for the multiphase flow research community to assess predictive capability of modeling techniques as well as elucidate the hydrodynamic behavior in these systems. This study performed fluidization experiments using three different test sections with internal diameters of 2.5, 4, and 6 in. The operating conditions, bed material, and range of flow velocities at the inlet were constant in all the units, which were not hydrodynamically scaled. Glass beads having a Sauter Mean Diameter of 332 μm were used. Superficial velocity was varied from 2.97 to 5.35 times the minimum fluidization velocity and the initial static bed height was 0.1524 m. The order in which the experiments were performed was randomized and replicates were included to provide uncertainty in measurements. Statistics of differential pressure and bed height from these tests were reported. Future plans include validating PIC methodology in the open-source software, MFiX (Multiphase Flow with Interphase Exchanges) using results from this study. This could further be extended to determine optimal model parameters using inverse techniques such as deterministic calibration or Bayesian inference.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Geometric Scale-up Experiments on Fluidization of Geldart B Glass Beads

42 ENGINEERING↗