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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Toward Urban Water Security: Broadening the Use of Machine Learning Methods for Mitigating Urban Water Hazards

Due to the complex interactions of human activity and the hydrological cycle, achieving urban water security requires comprehensive planning processes that address urban water hazards using a holistic approach. However, the effective implementation of such an approach requires the collection and curation of large amounts of disparate data, and reliable methods for modeling processes that may be co-evolutionary yet traditionally represented in non-integrable ways. In recent decades, many hydrological studies have utilized advanced machine learning and information technologies to approximate and predict physical processes, yet none have synthesized these methods into a comprehensive urban water security plan. In this paper, we review ways in which advanced machine learning techniques have been applied to specific aspects of the hydrological cycle and discuss their potential applications for addressing challenges in mitigating multiple water hazards over urban areas. We also describe a vision that integrates these machine learning applications into a comprehensive watershed-to-community planning workflow for smart-cities management of urban water resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating mass-absorption cross-section of ambient black carbon aerosols: theoretical, empirical, and machine learning models

The mass-absorption cross-section of black carbon (MAC BC ) is an essential parameter to link the atmospheric concentration of black carbon (BC) with its radiative forcing. When a direct calculation of MAC BC based on observations of aerosol light absorption and BC mass concentration is impossible, we rely on modeling and simulations to estimate MAC BC , but currently, there is no consensus model that can be relied on for accurate predictions across all atmospheric environments when BC particles have different coating thicknesses. Here, we applied five MAC BC prediction models (including three light scattering theories, an empirical model based on observations of particle mass concentrations, and a machine learning model developed in our previous work) to aerosols from three Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) field campaigns. While many studies have found that increasing the complexity of the models helps to constrain biases of the estimated MAC BC , our effort is to evaluate the models based on the criteria of simplicity and accuracy. We find that our machine learning model (support vector machine for regression, SVM) generally performs well across all DOE ARM field campaign data, while the accuracy of core-shell Mie theory depends on the bias correction algorithm applied to filter-based light absorption data. Generally, the empirical model for internally-mixed particles that we considered tends to over-predict MAC BC , while Mie theory for externally-mixed particles tends to under-predict MAC BC . An examination of the influence of coating material on BC cores suggests that the performance of our current SVM model is degraded when the BC is thickly-coated (e.g., it has undergone aging and mixing with other materials in the atmosphere).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantum pattern recognition algorithms for charged particle tracking

High-energy physics is facing a daunting computing challenge with the large datasets expected from the upcoming High-Luminosity Large Hadron Collider in the next decade and even more so at future colliders. A key challenge in the reconstruction of events of simulated data and collision data is the pattern recognition algorithms used to determine the trajectories of charged particles. The field of quantum computing shows promise for transformative capabilities and is going through a cycle of rapid development and hence might provide a solution to this challenge. This article reviews current studies of quantum computers for charged particle pattern recognition in high-energy physics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulating Atmospheric Processes in Earth System Models and Quantifying Uncertainties With Deep Learning Multi‐Member and Stochastic Parameterizations

Abstract Deep learning is a powerful tool to represent subgrid processes in climate models, but many application cases have so far used idealized settings and deterministic approaches. Here, we develop stochastic parameterizations with calibrated uncertainty quantification to learn subgrid convective and turbulent processes and surface radiative fluxes of a superparameterization embedded in an Earth System Model (ESM). We explore three methods to construct stochastic parameterizations: (a) a single Deep Neural Network (DNN) with Monte Carlo Dropout; (b) a multi‐member parameterization; and (c) a Variational Encoder Decoder with latent space perturbation. We show that the multi‐member parameterization improves the representation of convective processes, especially in the planetary boundary layer, compared to individual DNNs. The respective uncertainty quantification illustrates that methods (b) and (c) are advantageous compared to a dropout‐based DNN parameterization regarding the spread of convective processes. Hybrid simulations with our best‐performing multi‐member parameterizations remained challenging and crash within the first days. Therefore, we develop a pragmatic partial coupling strategy relying on the superparameterization for condensate emulation. Partial coupling reduces the computational efficiency of hybrid Earth‐like simulations but enables model stability over 5 months with our multi‐member parameterizations. However, our hybrid simulations exhibit biases in thermodynamic fields and differences in precipitation patterns. Despite this, the multi‐member parameterizations enable improvements in reproducing tropical extreme precipitation compared to a traditional convection parameterization. Despite these challenges, our results indicate the potential of a new generation of multi‐member machine learning parameterizations leveraging uncertainty quantification to improve the representation of stochasticity of subgrid effects.

Behrens, Gunnar [Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und R↗
DOE OSTI2026

Condition monitoring of wind turbine drivetrains: state-of-the-art technologies, recent trends, and future outlook

As global wind capacity expands, reducing operations and maintenance costs is critical to lowering the levelized cost of energy. This paper explores the state of the art in condition monitoring and prognostic strategies for wind turbine drivetrains, which are among the most failure-prone and maintenance-intensive subsystems. Current diagnostic methodologies are evaluated, covering supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data, high-frequency vibration and acoustic analysis, machine learning and digital twin frameworks. Finally, practical challenges are identified that limit wide-scale industrial adoption, in order to guide future research and industrial efforts.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep-Learning Interatomic Potential Connects Molecular Structural Ordering to the Macroscale Properties of Polyacrylonitrile

Polyacrylonitrile (PAN) is an important commercial polymer, bearing atactic stereochemistry resulting from nonselective radical polymerization. As such, an accurate, fundamental understanding of governing interactions among PAN molecular units is indispensable for advancing the design principles of final products at reduced processability costs. While ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations can provide the necessary accuracy for treating key interactions in polar polymers, such as dipole–dipole interactions and hydrogen bonding, and analyzing their influence on the molecular orientation, their implementation is limited to small molecules only. Herein, we show that the neural network interatomic potentials (NNIPs) that are trained on the small-scale AIMD data (acquired for oligomers) can be efficiently employed to examine the structures and properties at large scales (polymers). NNIP provides critical insight into intra- and interchain hydrogen-bonding and dipolar correlations and accurately predicts the amorphous bulk PAN structure validated by modeling the experimental X-ray structure factor. Furthermore, the NNIP-predicted PAN properties, such as density and elastic modulus, are in good agreement with their experimental values. Overall, the trend in the elastic modulus is found to correlate strongly with the PAN structural orientations encoded in the Hermans orientation factor. In conclusion, this study enables the ability to predict the structure–property relations for PAN and analogues with sustainable ab initio accuracy across scales.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving vertical detail in simulated temperature and humidity data using machine learning

Atmospheric models used for weather forecasting and climate predictions discretise the atmosphere onto a vertical grid. There are however atmospheric phenomena that occur on scales smaller than the thickness of those model layers. The formation of low-level clouds due to temperature inversions is an example. This leads to atmospheric models underestimating, or even missing, these clouds and their radiative effects. Using radiosonde observations as training data, a machine learning model is used to improve the vertical detail of modelled profiles of temperature and specific humidity. In addition, a physics-informed machine learning model is developed and compared to the traditional approach; showing improvements in the cloud fraction profiles calculated from its predictions. The vertically enhanced profiles also improve the representation of layers of convective inhibition and anomalous refractivity gradients. This work facilitates targeted improvements to the representation of certain atmospheric processes without the burden of increased memory and computational cost from increasing vertical resolution throughout the whole model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Generative AI models for learning flow maps of stochastic dynamical systems in bounded domains

Simulating stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in bounded domains, presents significant computational challenges due to particle exit phenomena, which requires accurate modeling of interior stochastic dynamics and boundary interactions. Despite the success of machine learning-based methods in learning SDEs, existing learning methods are not applicable to SDEs in bounded domains because they cannot accurately capture the particle exit dynamics. We present a unified hybrid data-driven approach that combines a conditional diffusion model with an exit prediction neural network to capture both interior stochastic dynamics and boundary exit phenomena. Our ML model consists of two major components: a neural network that learns exit probabilities using binary cross-entropy loss with rigorous convergence guarantees, and a training-free diffusion model that generates state transitions for non-exiting particles using closed-form score functions. The two components are integrated through a probabilistic sampling algorithm that determines particle exit at each time step and generates appropriate state transitions. Here, the performance of the proposed approach is demonstrated via three test cases: a one-dimensional simplified problem for theoretical verification, a two-dimensional advection-diffusion problem in a bounded domain, and a three-dimensional problem of interest to magnetically confined fusion plasmas.

Bounded domains↗
DOE OSTI2025

A review of displacement cascade simulations using molecular dynamics emphasizing interatomic potentials for TPBAR components

This review explores molecular dynamics simulations for studying radiation damage in Tritium Producing Burnable Absorber Rod (TPBAR) materials, emphasizing the role of interatomic potentials in displacement cascades. Recent machine learning potentials (MLPs), trained on quantum data, enhance prediction accuracy over traditional models like EAM. We highlight temperature, PKA energy, and composition effects on damage evolution in TPBAR components, recommending suitable potentials and discussing advancements for materials in extreme radiation environments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Large-scale genomic analyses with machine learning uncover predictive patterns associated with fungal phytopathogenic lifestyles and traits

Abstract Invasive plant pathogenic fungi have a global impact, with devastating economic and environmental effects on crops and forests. Biosurveillance, a critical component of threat mitigation, requires risk prediction based on fungal lifestyles and traits. Recent studies have revealed distinct genomic patterns associated with specific groups of plant pathogenic fungi. We sought to establish whether these phytopathogenic genomic patterns hold across diverse taxonomic and ecological groups from the Ascomycota and Basidiomycota, and furthermore, if those patterns can be used in a predictive capacity for biosurveillance. Using a supervised machine learning approach that integrates phylogenetic and genomic data, we analyzed 387 fungal genomes to test a proof-of-concept for the use of genomic signatures in predicting fungal phytopathogenic lifestyles and traits during biosurveillance activities. Our machine learning feature sets were derived from genome annotation data of carbohydrate-active enzymes (CAZymes), peptidases, secondary metabolite clusters (SMCs), transporters, and transcription factors. We found that machine learning could successfully predict fungal lifestyles and traits across taxonomic groups, with the best predictive performance coming from feature sets comprising CAZyme, peptidase, and SMC data. While phylogeny was an important component in most predictions, the inclusion of genomic data improved prediction performance for every lifestyle and trait tested. Plant pathogenicity was one of the best-predicted traits, showing the promise of predictive genomics for biosurveillance applications. Furthermore, our machine learning approach revealed expansions in the number of genes from specific CAZyme and peptidase families in the genomes of plant pathogens compared to non-phytopathogenic genomes (saprotrophs, endo- and ectomycorrhizal fungi). Such genomic feature profiles give insight into the evolution of fungal phytopathogenicity and could be useful to predict the risks of unknown fungi in future biosurveillance activities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating Cosmological Constraints from Galaxy Cluster Abundance using Simulation-Based Inference

Inferring the values and uncertainties of cosmological parameters in a cosmology model is of paramount importance for modern cosmic observations. In this paper, we use the simulation-based inference (SBI) approach to estimate cosmological constraints from a simplified galaxy cluster observation analysis. Using data generated from the Quijote simulation suite and analytical models, we train a machine learning algorithm to learn the probability function between cosmological parameters and the possible galaxy cluster observables. The posterior distribution of the cosmological parameters at a given observation is then obtained by sampling the predictions from the trained algorithm. Our results show that the SBI method can successfully recover the truth values of the cosmological parameters within the 2σ limit for this simplified galaxy cluster analysis, and acquires similar posterior constraints obtained with a likelihood-based Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, the current state-of the-art method used in similar cosmological studies.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep Learning Advances Arctic River Water Temperature Predictions

The accelerated warming in the Arctic poses serious risks to freshwater ecosystems by altering streamflow and river thermal regimes. However, limited research on Arctic River water temperatures exists due to data scarcity and the absence of robust methodologies, which often focus on large, major river basins. To address this, we leveraged the newly released, extensive AKTEMP data set and advanced machine learning techniques to develop a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. By incorporating ERA5-Land reanalysis data and integrating physical understanding into data-driven processes, our model advanced river water temperature predictions in ungauged, snow- and permafrost-affected basins in Alaska. Our model outperformed existing approaches in high-latitude regions, achieving a median Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.95 and root mean squared error of 1.0°C. The LSTM model learned air temperature, soil temperature, solar radiation, and thermal radiation—factors associated with energy balance—were the most important drivers of river temperature dynamics. Soil moisture and snow water equivalent were highlighted as critical factors representing key processes such as thawing, melting, and groundwater contributions. Glaciers and permafrost were also identified as important covariates, particularly in seasonal river water temperature predictions. Our LSTM model successfully captured the complex relationships between hydrometeorological factors and river water temperatures across varying timescales and hydrological conditions. This scalable and transferable approach can be potentially applied across the Arctic, offering valuable insights for future conservation and management efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data Architecture and Analytics Requirements for Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Applications to Achieve Condition-Based Maintenance

This report identified some of the important requirements that needs to be taken into consideration as part of the data evolution for the CBM application of a CWS in a NPP. In the data evolution process, the information is converted into insight leading into actions using advancements in AI/ML technologies. A notion of RESET AI: design, development, deployment, and operation principals are introduced to lifecycle of AI technologies. Towards the end of the report, we discussed how this CBM can be realized in a SDE. As path forward, this report lays the foundation for developing a more detailed industry guidance supporting data evolution for other plant applications like operations and plant support. These would be developed as part of ongoing research in the fiscal year 2023.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Secure Collaborative Environment for Seamless Sharing of Scientific Knowledge

In a secure collaborative environment, tera-bytes of data generated from powerful scientific instruments are used to train secure machine learning (ML) models on exascale computing systems, which are then securely shared with internal or external collaborators as cloud-based services. Devising such a secure platform is necessary for seamless scientific knowledge sharing without compromising individual, or institute-level, intellectual property and privacy details. By enabling new computing opportunities with sensitive data, we envision a secure collaborative environment that will play a significant role in accelerating scientific discovery. Several recent technological advancements have made it possible to realize these capabilities. In this paper, we present our efforts at ORNL toward developing a secure computation platform. We present a use case where scientific data generated from complex instruments, like those at the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS), are used to train a differential privacy enabled deep learning (DL) network on Summit, which is then hosted as a secure multi-party computation (MPC) service on ORNL’s Compute and Data Environment for Science (CADES) cloud computing platform for third-party inference. In this feasibility study, we discuss the challenges involved, elaborate on leveraged technologies, analyze relevant performance results and present the future vision of our work to establish secure collaboration capabilities within and outside of ORNL.

Yoginath, Srikanth↗
NASA NTRS2016

UAV Research at NASA Langley: Towards Safe, Reliable, and Autonomous Operations

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) are fundamental components in several aspects of research at NASA Langley, such as flight dynamics, mission-driven airframe design, airspace integration demonstrations, atmospheric science projects, and more. In particular, NASA Langley Research Center (Langley) is using UAVs to develop and demonstrate innovative capabilities that meet the autonomy and robotics challenges that are anticipated in science, space exploration, and aeronautics. These capabilities will enable new NASA missions such as asteroid rendezvous and retrieval (ARRM), Mars exploration, in-situ resource utilization (ISRU), pollution measurements in historically inaccessible areas, and the integration of UAVs into our everyday lives all missions of increasing complexity, distance, pace, and/or accessibility. Building on decades of NASA experience and success in the design, fabrication, and integration of robust and reliable automated systems for space and aeronautics, Langley Autonomy Incubator seeks to bridge the gap between automation and autonomy by enabling safe autonomous operations via onboard sensing and perception systems in both data-rich and data-deprived environments. The Autonomy Incubator is focused on the challenge of mobility and manipulation in dynamic and unstructured environments by integrating technologies such as computer vision, visual odometry, real-time mapping, path planning, object detection and avoidance, object classification, adaptive control, sensor fusion, machine learning, and natural human-machine teaming. These technologies are implemented in an architectural framework developed in-house for easy integration and interoperability of cutting-edge hardware and software.

Davila, Carlos G.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling of the metal–insulator transition temperature in alio-valently doped VO 2 through symbolic regression

The correlated semiconductor vanadium dioxide (VO 2 ) exhibits an insulator–metal transition (IMT) near room temperature, which is of interest in various device applications. Precise IMT temperature control is crucial to determine the use cases across technologies such as thermochromic windows, actuators for robots or neuronal oscillators. Doping the cation or anion sites can modulate the IMT by several tens of degrees and control hysteresis. However, modeling the effects of control parameters (e.g., doping concentration, type of dopants) is challenging due to complex experimental procedures and limited data, hindering the use of traditional data-driven machine learning approaches. Symbolic regression (SR) can bridge this gap by identifying nonlinear expressions connecting key input parameters to target properties, even with small data sets. In this work, we develop SR models to capture the IMT trends in VO 2 influenced by different dopant parameters. Using experimental data from the literature, our study reveals a dual nature of the IMT temperature with varying tungsten (W) doping concentrations. The symbolic model captures data trends and accounts for experimental variability, providing a complementary approach to first-principles calculations. Our feature-driven analysis across a broader class of dopants informs selectivity and provides qualitative insights into tuning phase transition properties valuable for neuromorphic computing and thermochromic windows.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Detector pixel calibration of time-of-flight neutron diffractometers accelerated by machine learning

Modern time-of-flight neutron diffractometers at spallation neutron source are equipped with two dimensional detectors with fine pixelations. The flight path of neutrons from the moderator to the sample and to the detector needs to be precisely calibrated at detector pixel level using standard powders so the diffraction data from all the detector pixels can be correctly time-focused to produce high resolution diffraction peaks. The number of pixels can reach to millions which makes a single-pixel calibration process time-consuming, or even impossible, with conventional fitting routine. Here we presented a machine learning aided calibration process via a “training and predict” process by training machine learning models with the relations between the individual pixel time-of-flight diffraction pattern and fitted diffraction constant. The training models take a portion of the available pixels to predict the diffraction constants precisely and rapidly for massive pixel diffraction patterns.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of machine learning to sporadic experimental data for understanding epitaxial strain relaxation

Understanding epitaxial strain relaxation is one of the key challenges in functional thin films with strong structure–property relations. Herein, we employ an emerging data analytics approach to quantitatively evaluate the underlying relationships between critical thickness ($h_c$) of strain relaxation and various physical and chemical features, despite the sporadic experimental data points available. First, we have collected and refined the reported $h_c$ of the perovskite oxide thin film/substrate system to construct a consistent sub-dataset which captures a common trend among the varying experimental details. Then, we employ correlation analyses and feature engineering to find the most relevant feature set which includes Poisson's ratio and lattice mismatch. With the insight offered by correlation analyses and feature engineering, machine learning (ML) models have been trained to deduce a decent accuracy, which has been further validated experimentally. In this work, the demonstrated framework is expected to be efficiently extended to the other classes of thin films in understanding $h_c$.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗