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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Opening pathways for the conversion of woody biomass into sustainable aviation fuel via catalytic fast pyrolysis and hydrotreating

Meeting aggressive decarbonization targets set by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) will require the rapid development of technologies to produce sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) can support these efforts by opening pathways for the conversion of woody biomass into an upgraded biogenic oil that can be further processed to SAF and other fuels. However, the absence of end-to-end experimental data for the process leads to uncertainty in the yield, product quality, costs, and sustainability of the pathway. The research presented here serves to address these needs through a series of integrated experimental campaigns in which real biomass feedstocks are converted to a final SAF product using large bench-scale continuous reactor systems. For these campaigns, the degree of catalytic upgrading during CFP was varied to produce CFP-oils with oxygen contents of 17 and 20 wt% on a dry basis. The CFP-oils were then hydrotreated and distilled into gasoline, diesel, and SAF fractions. Detailed yield and compositional data were obtained for each step of the process to inform technoeconomic and lifecycle analyses, and the fuel properties of the SAF fraction were evaluated to provide first-of-its-kind insight into the quality of the final product. This research reveals opportunities to optimize process carbon efficiency by tuning the degree of catalytic upgrading during the CFP step and highlights routes to produce a high-quality cycloalkane-rich SAF with 85–92% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to fossil-based pathways.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

SMALE: Enhancing Scalability of Machine Learning Algorithms on Extreme-Scale Computing Platforms

Deployment and execution of machine learning tasks on extreme-scale computing platforms face several significant technical challenges: 1) High computing cost incurred by dense networks – The computing workload of deep networks with densely-connected topology increases rapidly with the network size, imposing a non-scalable computing model of extreme-scale computing platforms; 2) Non-optimized workload distribution – Many advanced deep learning algorithms, e.g., sparsification and irregular net-work topology, produce very unbalanced workload distribution on extreme-scale computing platforms. The computation efficiency is greatly hindered by the incurred data and computation redundancies as well as long tails of the node with extensive workload; 3) Constraints in data movement and I/O bottle-neck – Inter-node data movement in extreme-scale computing platforms are associated with high energy and latency costs, and subject to the constraints of I/O bandwidth; and 4) Generalization of algorithm realization and acceleration on computing platforms – The large varieties of machine learning algorithms and structures of extreme-scale computing platforms make the derivation of a generalized algorithm realization and acceleration method very challenging, which, however, is the requirement by domain scientists and interested users. We call the above challenges Smale’s Problems in Machine Learning and Understanding for High-Performance Computing Scientific Discovery. The objective of our three-year research project is to develop a holistic innovation set at structure, assembly, and acceleration layers of machine learning algorithms to address the above challenges in algorithm deployment and execution. Three tasks are particularly performed, including: At the algorithm structure level, we investigate the techniques that can structurally sparsify on the topology of deep networks for computing workload reduction. We also study clustering and pruning techniques that can optimize the workload distributions over the extreme-scale computing platforms; At the algorithm assembly level, we derive a unified learning framework for unsupervised transfer learning and dynamic growing capabilities. Novel training methods are also exploited to enhance the training efficiency of the proposed framework; At the algorithm acceleration level, we will develop a series of techniques that can accelerate the computation of sparse matrix operations, which are one of the core executions in deep learning and optimize memory access of the concerned platforms. Our proposed techniques attack the fundamental problems in machine learning algorithms running on extreme-scale computing platforms by vertically integrating the solutions at three closely entangled layers, paving the long-term scaling path of machine learning applications under DOE context. Three tasks corresponding to the above respective research orientations are performed during the three-year project period with our collaborators at ORNL. The outcome of the proposed project is anticipated to form a holistic solution set of novel algorithms and network topologies, efficient training techniques, and fast acceleration methods to promote the computing scalability of the machine learning applications of particular interest to DOE.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Searching for Low-mass Population III Stars Disguised as White Dwarfs

It is uncertain whether or not low-mass Population III stars ever existed. While limits on the number density of Population III stars with M {sub *} ≈ 0.8 M {sub ⊙} have been derived, using Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) data, little is known about the occurrence of Population III stars at lower masses. In the absence of reliable parallaxes, the spectra of metal-poor main-sequence (MPMS) stars with M {sub *} ≲ 0.8 M {sub ⊙} can easily be confused with those of cool white dwarfs. To resolve this ambiguity, in this paper we present a classifier that differentiates between MPMS stars and white dwarfs, based on photometry and/or spectroscopy without the use of parallax information. We build and train our classifier using state-of-the-art theoretical spectra, and evaluate it on existing SDSS-based classifications for objects with reliable Gaia DR2 parallaxes. We then apply our classifier to a large catalog of objects with SDSS photometry and spectroscopy to search for MPMS candidates. We discover several previously unknown, extremely metal-poor (EMP) candidate stars, and recover numerous confirmed EMP stars already noted in the literature. We conclude that archival SDSS spectroscopy has already been exhaustively searched for EMP stars. We predict that the lowest-mass stars of primordial composition will have redder optical-to-infrared colors than cool white dwarfs at constant effective temperature, due to surface gravity-dependent collision-induced absorption from molecular hydrogen. We suggest that the application of our classifier to data produced by next-generation spectroscopic surveys will set stronger constraints on the number density of low-mass Population III stars in the Milky Way.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sensitivity Analysis of Drivers Water Shortage in the Los Angeles Region During Drought

The code and detailed step-by-step instructions for generating the model output data, processing results, and analysis and plotting are provided at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. The PyArtes model is a python adaptation of the Artes model. PyArtes uses many of the same input data and optimization model architecture as Artes. Documentation for the PyArtes model is provided in the Supplement to the paper. The primary data product are simulated monthly water shortages for indoor and outdoor demand under a large ensemble of drought scenarios (>13,000). The droughts are hypothetical and are not based on historical time series data of supply sources - though historical data did help inform ranges explored for supply parameters. Demands are informed by recent 2017-2021 water supply data. Demands used for the model can be accessed at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. Simulations resolve demand for over 90 water providers in the study region. The results report 36 months of water shortage data for each indoor and outdoor demand node. The study also developed a multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network trained on a subset of the simulated shortage ensemble to emulate worst annual water shortage for a given set of parameter multipliers -- provided the parameter values fall within the ranges sampled in the ensemble. Emulated water shortages for synthetic ensembles are in the MLP-generated shortages folder. The MLP model was used to generate larger ensembles to support Sobol analysis that would have been extremely computationally expensive to simulate. Datasets provided in this repository*: Simulated shortages. These results are used for the analysis for Figures 5, 8, and 9 in the paper, and also to train the MLP emulator. .zip file containing outputs for the 13,312 scenario ensemble. Separate .csv files for indoor and outdoor shortage for each scenario. Rows = demand ids (~100), Columns = months (36) Units = acre-feet/month of shortage (shortage = monthly demand - supply). 1 acft = 1233.48 m^3 .csv files of aggregated shortages derived from the 13,312 ensemble Rows = scenarios (13,312), Columns = demand ids (~100) Units = acre-feet/year (either worst annual shortage or total shortage over the 3-year drought) .csv file of the parameter multipliers scenarios for the ensemble .csv file of the parameter ranges and baseline values the multipliers were applied to MLP-generated shortages. These results are used for Figures 4, 6, and 7 in the paper. mwd higher folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results Emulated shortages. Rows = scenarios, columns = demand ids, units acft Sobol results. Rows = demand ids, columns Sobol (S1, ST, or 95% confidence interval) value for each parameter mwd lower folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results same organization as mwd higher MLP performance: performance metrics (R^2, RMSE, BIAS, MAPE) for the testing subset (20% or 2,662 scenarios) and simulated vs emulated worst year shortage (acre-feet/year) for every demand node, MWD wholesale regions, and the entire study region (LAC). Supporting data for figures. Figure plotting scripts in the associated GitHub repo. These files support analysis and visualization. Geospatial Data used for plotting simulated water shortages and Sobol results. Dictionary of full names for demand nodes in the model and estimates of water supply by source type informed by Artes input files and California Urban Water Management Planning data: https://water.ca.gov/Programs/Water-Use-And-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Use-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Management-Plans *Readme files provided for each folder.

drought↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing \textit{otsdaq}: Enhancements for Usability, Accuracy, and Robustness

High-energy physics (HEP) experiments require data acquisition (DAQ) systems that can orchestrate complex detector operations, high data throughput, and responsive, real-time feedback to operators. Traditional DAQ stacks, which are often bespoke, command-line driven and highly specific, impose large learning curves on users. The Off-The-Shelf Data Acquisition (\textit{otsdaq}) framework was created to address these issues by offering a highly customizable and scalable browser-based ’desktop’ environment, in which experiment-specific control and monitoring applications can be easily deployed and integrated. Although the initial development of the \textit{otsdaq} software was aimed at the Fermilab Test Beam Facility, \textit{otsdaq} is now being leveraged for broader deployment, including the upcoming Mu2e experiment, where real-time monitoring of field-programmable gate array (FPGA)-based Data Transfer Controllers (DTCs), Clock and Fanout (CFO) boards, and several other subsystems are critical. We contribute a set of targeted improvements to \textit{otsdaq}: bitmap visualization functionality for configured data, improved and corrected delta-based DTC throughput metrics, version control (VC)-backed source navigation for console messages, custom navigation hooks to eliminate disruptive user interface glitches, and copy-to-clipboard support for macro execution history. These changes improve usability, reduce debugging time, and increase accuracy in performance data as Mu2e moves toward commissioning.

Mohammed, A. [Unlisted, US]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Searches for direct slepton production in the compressed-mass corridor in $\sqrt{\textrm{s}}$ = 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents searches for the direct pair production of charged light-flavour sleptons, each decaying into a stable neutralino and an associated Standard Model lepton. The analyses focus on the challenging ``corridor'' region, where the mass difference, $Δm$, between the slepton ($\tilde{e}$ or $\tildeμ$) and the lightest neutralino ($\tildeχ^{0}_{1}$) is less or similar to the mass of the $W$ boson, $m(W)$, with the aim to close a persistent gap in sensitivity to models with $Δm \lesssim m(W)$. Events are required to contain a high-energy jet, significant missing transverse momentum, and two same-flavour opposite-sign leptons ($e$ or $μ$). The analysis uses $pp$ collision data at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb$^{-1}$. Several kinematic selections are applied, including a set of boosted decision trees. These are each optimised for different $Δm$ to provide expected sensitivity for the first time across the full $Δm$ corridor. The results are generally consistent with the Standard Model, with the most significant deviations observed with a local significance of 2.0 $σ$ in the selectron search, and 2.4 $σ$ in the smuon search. While these deviations weaken the observed exclusion reach in some parts of the signal parameter space, the previously present sensitivity gap to this corridor is largely reduced. Constraints at the 95% confidence level are set on simplified models of selectron and smuon pair production, where selectrons (smuons) with masses up to 300 (350) GeV can be excluded for $Δm$ between 2 GeV and 100 GeV.

hadron-hadron scattering↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Statistics-Based Threshold for the RMS-Energy Oscillation Detector

System operators and reliability coordinators currently rely on extensive baselining studies to set thresholds for their oscillation detectors. The resulting thresholds are based largely on engineering judgment and may vary significantly between organizations. In this paper, statistical distribution theory is used to derive a detection threshold for the widely deployed root-mean-square (RMS)-energy detector. This expression provides a theoretical basis for the detector's configuration, simplifies the process of selecting the threshold, and enables improved consistency among organizations that need to coordinate during system-wide events. Three methods for calculating the threshold using synchrophasor measurements are also proposed. These methods ensure that the threshold can be calculated reliably for various applications. Tests with simulated and field-measured data demonstrate that the statistics-based threshold provides consistent detection of grid disturbances while maintaining a low probability of false alarm.

Follum, James D.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nowcasting Earthquakes With Stochastic Simulations: Information Entropy of Earthquake Catalogs

Earthquake nowcasting has been proposed as a means of tracking the change in large earthquake potential in a seismically active area. The method was developed using observable seismic data, in which probabilities of future large earthquakes can be computed using Receiver Operating Characteristic methods. Furthermore, analysis of the Shannon information content of the earthquake catalogs has been used to show that there is information contained in the catalogs, and that it can vary in time. So an important question remains, where does the information originate? In this paper, we examine this question using stochastic simulations of earthquake catalogs. Our catalog simulations are computed using an Earthquake Rescaled Aftershock Seismicity (“ERAS”) stochastic model. This model is similar in many ways to other stochastic seismicity simulations, but has the advantage that the model has only 2 free parameters to be set, one for the aftershock (Omori-Utsu) time decay, and one for the aftershock spatial migration away from the epicenter. Generating a simulation catalog and fitting the two parameters to the observed catalog such as California takes only a few minutes of wall clock time. While clustering can arise from random, Poisson statistics, we show that significant information in the simulation catalogs arises from the “non-Poisson” power-law aftershock clustering, implying that the practice of de-clustering observed catalogs may remove information that would otherwise be useful in forecasting and nowcasting. We also show that the nowcasting method provides similar results with the ERAS model as it does with observed seismicity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Power Grid Contingency Analysis with Machine Learning: A Brief Survey and Prospects

We briefly review previous applications of machine learning (ML) in power grid analyses and introduce our ongoing effort toward developing a generative-adversarial (GA) model for fast and reliable grid contingency analyses. According to our review, the persisting limitation of traditional ML techniques in grid analyses is the need for an exhaustive amount of training data for model generalization and accurate predictions. GA models overcome this limitation by first learning true data distribution from a small training set, from which new samples assimilating true data are generated with some variations. Subsequently, GA models can transfer learn or super-generalize with increased accuracy, that is, accurately predict n - (k + 2) contingencies from a small n - k training set and generated n - (k + 1) data. The joint effort between Idaho National Lab and Florida State University strives to develop a zero-shot and deep learning-based contingency analysis tool, named Smart Contingency Analysis Neural Network (SCANN), by leveraging the aforementioned advantages of GA models. The basic architecture of SCANN stems from the Latent Encoding of Atypical Perturbations network combined with an adversarial network, and it is designed to generate imbalanced power flow data from learned true data distributions for prediction purposes. Here we also introduce the abstract concept of resilience-chaos plots, a new resilience characterization tool proposed to complement SCANN by aiding in the assessment of large amounts of high-order contingency predictions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Next Generation Solvent Vapor Pressure Testing

Previous work by Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) indicated that the actual Next Generation Solvent vapor pressure would be higher than the Original Caustic Side Solvent Extraction (CSSX) solvent vapor pressure, but below a bounding vapor pressure using Raoult’s Law. Since solvent vapor pressure has a significant impact on Composite Lower Flammability Limits (CLFL) and attendant accident analyses, obtaining an additional margin from the bounding NGS vapor pressure would be valuable. In order to quantify how much margin might be gained from the NGS bounding solvent, SRNL researchers were requested to perform vapor pressure testing with the Next Generation Solvent (NGS) by Savannah River Mission Completion (SRMC). The vapor pressure curve for the NGS formulation set to be deployed at the Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF) has been determined by SRNL up to 55°C (131°F) using headspace Gas Chromatography (GC). It was expected that NGS would have a higher vapor pressure than the Original CSSX solvent; however, experimental results indicate a lower vapor pressure. At this time, it is uncertain if this difference is due to the 7x increase in concentration of the large calixarene in the solvent (0.007M BOBCalix in Original CSSX solvent vs. 0.05M MaxCalix in NGS) or to minor batch-to-batch variations in Isopar-L constituents. The NGS and the Original CSSX solvent vapor pressure data were fitted to the Antoine Equation. The Antoine equation gives a more accurate representation of the expected vapor pressure of the solvents outside of the temperature range tested. The Antoine equation fitting for NGS is given below: $P=10^{6.364⁻\frac{1788.4}{T+219.3}}$. Where, p is the vapor pressure (partial pressure) of NGS in mmHg and T is the temperature in °C. It is recommended that SRMC either continue using the more conservative Isopar-L vapor pressure calculations at SWPF with the equation developed for the Original CSSX solvent, or the equation presented above for the NGS solvent. Additionally, it is recommended to study the variability in Isopar-L vapor pressure between lots.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

MSD CoP Webinar: AI and Extreme Events - Overcoming Data Challenges for Improved Characterization of Climate Extremes

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: Artificial Intelligence (AI) models require large volumes of data for training and testing. Data requirements present challenges for using AI to explore extreme events with limited observational data. This webinar will showcase two innovative methods developed by part of the European Climate Intelligence (CLINT) project to overcome data challenges and harness AI to improve our understanding of climate extremes. Dr. Ascenso will present his research on data augmentation methods to improve estimates of tropical cyclones using satellite data. His presentation will review established methods for data augmentation and explore opportunities and challenges for using generative AI to generate images of extreme, life-threatening tropical cyclones. Next, Dr. Plesiat will present his research on deep learning techniques to overcome limited observational data sets. His presentation will illustrate deep learning methods to develop AI reconstructions of four climate indices across Europe. Presenters : Dr. Guido Ascenso (post-doctoral researcher, Politecnico di Milano); Dr. Étienne Plésiat (German Climate Computing Centre - DKRZ) Moderator(s): Stefano Galelli (MSD CoP WG Co-Lead), David Gold (MSD CoP WG Co-Lead), Jillian Sturtevant (MSD CoP WG Communications Officer), Matteo Giuliani (Politecnico di Milano, MSD CoP WG Member, Moderator and Organizer) This webinar was held on: October 11, 2024 from 11AM - 1PM ET

AI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Systems and methods for modeling water quality

A system, method, device and computer-readable medium for creating an ensemble model of water quality. The ensemble model is generated by determining a set of optimal component models for spectral regions of a body of water, and combining the optimal models. The optimal models can be based on remote sensing data, including satellite imagery. A K-fold partition approach or a global approach can be used to determine the optimal component models, and the optimal component models can be combined through spectral space partition rules to generate an ensemble model of water quality. The ensemble model not only has improved water quality prediction ability, but also has strong spatial and temporal extensibility. The spatial and temporal extensibility of the ensemble model is fundamentally important and desirable for long-term and large-scale remote sensing monitoring and assessment of water quality.

Liu, Hongxing↗
DOE OSTI2025

Interlaboratory comparison of secondary ion mass spectrometry analysis results from the 7th international technical nuclear forensics working group collaborative material exercise

A review and interlaboratory comparison of secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) data obtained by laboratories participating in the International Technical Nuclear Forensics Working Group (ITWG) 7th Collaborative Material Exercise (CMX-7) has been conducted. The analyzed materials were two uranium compounds in powder form and two pieces of uranium metal. The instruments used in this comparison were a small-geometry (SG) SIMS, CAMECA IMS 7f from the Research Centre Rez, and a large-geometry (LG) SIMS, CAMECA IMS 1280 from Los Alamos National Laboratory. Despite the differences in instruments and analytical procedures, e.g., sample preparation, SIMS setups, and data post-processing, there was good agreement for the 234 U/ 238 U, 235 U/ 238 U, and 236 U/ 238 U ratios in the analyzed materials. The main difference was in the precision, which was, as expected, higher for the LG-SIMS. In addition, a comparison between the laboratories was also made for the image processing algorithms applied to raw data acquired in automated particle measurement (APM) mode. In conclusion, the result of this comparison has led to identification of best practices for setting up parameters of the APM software.

and nuclear chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Observing dark matter decays to gravitons via graviton-photon conversion

Since dark matter is only known to have gravitational interactions, it may plausibly decay to gravitons on cosmological timescales. Although such a scenario can be easily realized, there are currently no known limits on this possibility based on indirect-detection methods. We propose a new search strategy that exploits the Gertsenshtein effect, whereby the gravitons produced in dark matter decays can convert to photons in large-scale magnetic fields along the line of sight to an observer. These conversions primarily occur within cosmological filaments which occupy a large (order unity) volume fraction and contain ∼ 10 – 100 nG fields with ∼ Mpc coherence lengths. Thus, dark matter decays to gravitons predict an irreducible population of extragalactic photons, which we constrain using the extragalactic gamma-ray background measured by the Fermi-LAT telescope. Using this method, we derive the first-ever constraints on the dark matter lifetime in the 0.1 GeV - 10 8 GeV mass range, contingent on the assumed filament magnetic field strength. We also make projections for the Advanced Particle-astrophysics Telescope, which can improve sensitivity to this dark matter decay channel by an order of magnitude beyond those we set using Fermi-LAT data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

AlloSHP: deconvoluting single homeologous polymorphism for phylogenetic analysis of allopolyploids

Background The genomic and evolutionary study of allopolyploid organisms involves multiple copies of homeologous chromosomes, making their assembly, annotation, and phylogenetic analysis challenging. Bioinformatics tools and protocols have been developed to study polyploid genomes, but sometimes require the assembly of their genomes, or at least the genes, limiting their use. Results We have developed AlloSHP, a command-line tool for detecting and extracting single homeologous polymorphisms (SHPs) from the subgenomes of allopolyploid species. This tool integrates three main algorithms, WGA, VCF2ALIGNMENT and VCF2SYNTENY, and allows the detection of SHPs for the study of diploid-polyploid complexes with available diploid progenitor genomes, without assembling and annotating the genomes of the allopolyploids under study. AlloSHP has been validated on three diploid-polyploid plant complexes, Brachypodium, Brassica, and Triticum-Aegilops, and a set of synthetic hybrid yeasts and their progenitors of the genus Saccharomyces. The results and congruent phylogenies obtained from the four datasets demonstrate the potential of AlloSHP for the evolutionary analysis of allopolyploids with a wide range of ploidy and genome sizes. Conclusions AlloSHP combines the strategies of simultaneous mapping against multiple reference genomes and syntenic alignment of these genomes to call SHPs, using as input data a single VCF file and the reference genomes of the known or closest extant diploid progenitor species. This novel approach provides a valuable tool for the evolutionary study of allopolyploid species, both at the interspecific and intraspecific levels, allowing the simultaneous analysis of a large number of accessions and avoiding the complex process of assembling polyploid genomes.

Allopolyploids↗
DOE OSTI2025

Geant4 Simulations and Experimental Results for the Pacific-Ocean Neutrino Experiment (P-ONE)

The Pacific-Ocean Neutrino Experiment (P-ONE) is an upcoming large-volume neutrino telescope planned to be built off the coast of Vancouver Island, Canada. It aims to detect high-energy neutrinos via the Cherenkov radiation produced in water by secondary particles born from high-energy neutrino interactions. Its first set of detectors is planned to be commissioned this year. However, since the telescope is still in its early stages of development, many tests and simulations must still be run to characterize the efficacy of the detectors. One necessary simulation must be devoted towards examining whether the polarization of the incoming Cherenkov light impacts the strength of the signals by the PMTs, and it must be supported by experimental data. In this report, I detail what I have completed during my SULI internship at the Los Alamos National Lab (LANL); I present the preliminary results of a Geant4 polarization simulation as well as preliminary laboratory measurements that will later be used to inform the future P-ONE design.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Cislunar Orbit Lifetimes from Initial Orbital Elements

The volume of space between Earth’s geosynchronous orbit out to the Moon’s sphere of influence, including the lunar Lagrange points, is crucial for the successful planning and execution of space missions, but not fully understood dynamically. This region is a part of cislunar space. Trajectories through cislunar space are influenced by the gravitational forces of the Sun, Earth, Moon, and other Solar System planets leading to typically unpredictable and chaotic trajectory behavior. It is therefore difficult to predict the stability of an trajectory through cislunar space from a set of initial conditions or orbital elements. We simulate one million cislunar orbits to train a self-organizing map (SOM) to cluster the trajectories and orbits into families based on how long they remain stable within the cislunar space. Using the trained SOM, we are able to predict the stable lifetime of a trajectory through cislunar space from a set of initial orbital elements to within an accuracy of 10% for 8% of simulated trajectories and within 50% for 43% of the simulated trajectories. Clustering in the SOM suggests that a variety of trajectory morphologies have similar lifetimes. Once trained, the SOM can predict the stable lifetime of a given cislunar trajectory within milliseconds. The methods developed in this work enable the rapid identification of stable cislunar orbits and trajectories that could be used for future space exploration. Moreover, the developed SOM method can generate orbital and trajectory lifetime estimates from minimal observational data, such as a single two line element, making it useful for early warning systems and large-scale sensor network operations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Janus: A Python Package for Agent-Based Modeling of Land Use and Land Cover Change

Janus is an open source Python package for agent-based modeling (ABM) of land use and land cover change (LULCC). Many ABMs of LULCC have been created across platforms, some of which are not ideal for large scale, high resolution scenarios. This model provides a simple object-oriented framework for creating ABMs specific to LULCC. The organizational philosophy of the modeling framework is to create software objects (agents) that are associated with specific and contextual attributes which are isolated from where those agents exist in the spatial setting of the model, yet provide clear linkages between the agent, their environment, and other agents in the simulation. In this way, the framework allows for assembly of LULCC ABMs with low (programmatic) overhead, making the models extensible and providing clear mechanisms for integrating them with process-oriented biophysical models. Provided with Janus is a suite of geospatial data preprocessing tools that can use arbitrary land cover products as an input. Crop choice decisions are based on potential crop prices, these can be created synthetically, or drawn from integrated human-Earth systems models such as the GCAM. Janus is publicly accessible through GitHub and provides an example dataset for testing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗