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Light quark Yukawas in triboson final states

Triple heavy vector boson production, pp → VVV (V = W, Z), has recently been observed for the first time. We propose that precision measurements of this process provide an excellent probe of the first generation light quark Yukawa couplings. Modified quark interactions with the off-shell Higgs in this process lead to a rapid growth of the partonic cross sections with energy, which manifests in an enhanced p T distribution of the final state leptons and quarks. We quantify this effect and estimate the present and future 2σ sensitivity to the up, down, and strange Yukawas. In particular, we find that HL-LHC can reach $\mathscr{O}$(400) sensitivity to the down Yukawa relative to the Standard Model value, improving the current sensitivity in this process by a factor of 10, and which can be further improved to $\mathscr{O}$(30) at FCC-hh. This is competitive with and complementary to constraints from global fits and other on-shell probes of the first generation Yukawas. The triboson sensitivity at HL-LHC corresponds to probing dimension-6 SMEFT operators suppressed by an $\mathscr{O}$(1) TeV scale, similarly to other LHC Higgs probes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Isovector charges of the nucleon from 2+1-flavor QCD with clover fermions

Here, we present high-statistics estimates of the isovector charges of the nucleon from four 2 + 1-flavor ensembles generated using Wilson-clover fermions with stout smearing and tree-level tadpole improved Symanzik gauge action at lattice spacings 𝑎 ≈ 0.127 and 0.09 fm and with 𝑀 𝜋 ≈ 280 and 170 MeV. The truncated solver method with bias correction and the coherent source sequential propagator construction are used to cost-effectively achieve 𝑂⁡(1⁢0 5 ) measurements on each ensemble. Using these data, the analysis of two-point correlation functions is extended to include four states in the fits, and of three-point functions to three states. Control over excited-state contamination in the calculation of the nucleon mass, the mass gaps between excited states, and in the matrix elements is demonstrated by the consistency of estimates using this multistate analysis of the spectral decomposition of the correlation functions and from simulations of the three-point functions at multiple values of the source-sink separation. The results for all three charges, 𝑔 𝐴 , 𝑔 𝑆 , and 𝑔 𝑇 , are in good agreement with calculations done using the clover-on-HISQ lattice formulation with similar values of the lattice parameters.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Plasma IMS Composition Measurements for Europa and the Other Galilean Moons

NASA and ESA are planning the joint Europa Jupiter System Mission (EJSM) to the Jupiter system with specific emphasis to Europa and Ganymede, respectively. The Japanese Space Agency is also planning an orbiter mission to explore Jupiter's magnetosphere and the Galilean satellites. For NASA's Jupiter Europa Orbiter (JEO) we are developing the 3D Ion Mass Spectrometer (IMS) with two main goals which can also be applied to the other Galilean moons, 1) measure the plasma interaction between Europa and Jupiter's magnetosphere and 2) infer the 4 pi surface composition to trace elemental and significant isotopic levels. The first goal supports the magnetometer (MAG) measurements, primarily directed at detection of Europa's sub-surface ocean, while the second gives information about transfer of material between the Galilean moons, and between the moon surfaces and subsurface layers putatively including oceans. The measurement of the interactions for all the Galilean moons can be used to trace the in situ ion measurements of pickup ions back to either Europa's or Ganymede's surface from the respectively orbiting spacecraft. The IMS instrument, being developed under NASA's Astrobiology Instrument Development Program, would maximally achieve plasma measurement requirements for JEO and EJSM while moving forward our knowledge of Jupiter system composition and source processes to far higher levels than previously envisaged. The composition of the global surfaces of Europa and Ganymede can be inferred from the measurement of ejected neutrals and pick-up ions using at minimum an in situ payload including MAG and IMS also fully capable of meeting Level 1 mission requirements for ocean detection and survey. Elemental and isotopic analysis of potentially extruded oceanic materials at the moon surfaces would further support the ocean objectives. These measurements should be made from a polar orbiting spacecraft about Europa or Ganymede at height 100 km. The ejecta produced by sputtering of the surfaces of Europa and Ganymede has been shown to be representative of the surface composition. Level 2 science on surface geology and composition can then be further enhanced by addition of the following: 3D Ion Neutral Mass Spectrometer (INNS), 3D plasma electron spectrometer (ELS), and hot plasma energetic particle instrument. The measurement approach is to alternate between times measuring pickup ions and times measuring plasma and magnetic field parameters along the spacecraft trajectory. By measuring the pickup ion energy, arrival direction and mass-per-charge, the ion can be traced back along the ejection trajectory to the approximate area of origin if the 3-D electric field and magnetic field are known. In situ observations of plasma flow velocities and vector magnetic fields can be used to determine the local convective electric field (E = -VXB) along the spacecraft trajectory. By combining this information with models of the magnetospheric interaction with Europa, one can generate 3D maps of the electric and magnetic field and compute the trajectories of the pickup ions back to the surface or exospheric points of origin. In the case of Ganymede there is the additional complexity of its own internal dipole magnetic field, while Io's volcanic activity introduces the complexity of a highly structured denser atmosphere. Callisto with its less globally extended exosphere will have a simpler interaction than for Europa (i.e., more like our moon). We will discuss these differences in light of the above proposed technique. Finally, the INNS observations and neutral exosphere models are needed to estimate production rates of pickup ions. The hot plasma measurements are needed to correct for sputtering rates which can be time dependent and electron plasma observations for electron impact ionization rates. Instrument characteristics, field-of-view requirements, modes of operation and effects of radiation on instrument functionality will be discussed.

Sittler, Edward↗

A Systems Approach to Estimating the Uncertainty Limits of X-Ray Radiographic Metrology

Micro- and nanomanufacturing capabilities have rapidly expanded over the past decade to include complex three-dimensional (3D) structure fabrication; however, the metrology required to accurately assess these processes via part inspection and characterization has struggled to keep pace. X-ray computed tomography (CT) is considered an ideal candidate for providing the critically needed metrology on the smallest scales, especially internal features, or inaccessible regions. X-ray CT supporting micro- and nanomanufacturing often push against the poorly understood resolution and variation limits inherent to the machines, which can distort or hide fine structures. In this study, we have developed and experimentally verify a comprehensive analytical uncertainty propagation signal variation flow graph (SVFG) model for X-ray radiography in this work to better understand resolution and image variability limits on the small scale. The SVFG approach captures, quantifies, and predicts variations occurring in the system that limit metrology capabilities, particularly in the micro/nanodomain. This work is the first step to achieving full uncertainty modeling of CT reconstructions and provides insight into improving X-ray attenuation imaging systems. The SVFG methodology framework is applied to generate a complete basis set of functions describing the major sources of variation in radiographs. Five models are identified, covering variation in energy, intensity, length, blur, and position. Radiographic system experiments are defined to measure the parameters required by the SVFGs. Best practices are identified for these measurements. The SVFG models are confirmed via direct measurement of variation to predict variation within 30% on average.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Planck 2013 results. XXV. Searches for cosmic strings and other topological defects

Planck data have been used to provide stringent new constraints on cosmic strings and other defects. We describe forecasts of the CMB power spectrum induced by cosmic strings, calculating these from network models and simulations using line-of-sight Boltzmann solvers. We have studied Nambu-Goto cosmic strings, as well as field theory strings for which radiative effects are important, thus spanning the range of theoretical uncertainty in the underlying strings models. We have added the angular power spectrum from strings to that for a simple adiabatic model, with the extra fraction defined as f 10 at multipole = 10. This parameter has been added to the standard six parameter fit using COSMOMC with flat priors. For the Nambu-Goto string model, we have obtained a constraint on the string tension of G μ/c 2 < 1.5 × 10 -7 and f 10 < 0.015 at 95% confidence that can be improved to G μ/c 2 < 1.3 × 10-7 and f 10 < 0.010 on inclusion of high-&ell; CMB data. For the Abelian-Higgs field theory model we find, G μ AH /c 2 < 3.2 × 10 -7 and f 10 < 0.028. The marginalised likelihoods for f 10 and in the f 10 -Ω b h 2 plane are also presented. We have additionally obtained comparable constraints on f 10 for models with semilocal strings and global textures. In terms of the effective defect energy scale these are somewhat weaker at G μ/c 2 < 1.1 × 10 -6 . We have made complementarity searches for the specific non-Gaussian signatures of cosmic strings, calibrating with all-sky Planck resolution CMB maps generated from networks of post-recombination strings. We have validated our non-Gaussian searches using these simulated maps in a Planck -realistic context, estimating sensitivities of up to Δ G μ/c 2 &approx; 4 × 10 -7 . We have obtained upper limits on the string tension at 95% confidence of G μ/c 2 < 9.0 × 10 -7 with modal bispectrum estimation and G μ/c 2 < 7.8 × 10 -7 for real space searches with Minkowski functionals. These are conservative upper bounds because only post-recombination string contributions have been included in the non-Gaussian analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The High-energy Radiation Environment around a 10 Gyr M Dwarf: Habitable at Last?

Recent work has demonstrated that high levels of X-ray and UV activity on young M dwarfs may drive rapid atmospheric escape on temperate, terrestrial planets orbiting within the habitable zone. However, secondary atmospheres on planets orbiting older, less active M dwarfs may be stable and present more promising candidates for biomarker searches. In order to evaluate the potential habitability of Earth-like planets around old, inactive M dwarfs, we present new Hubble Space Telescope and Chandra X-ray Observatory observations of Barnard’s Star (GJ 699), a 10 Gyr old M3.5 dwarf, acquired as part of the Mega-MUSCLES program. Despite the old age and long rotation period of Barnard’s Star, we observe two FUV (δ 130 ≈ 5000 s; E 130 ≈ 10 29.5 erg each) and one X-ray (E X ≈ 10 29.2 erg) flares, and we estimate a high-energy flare duty cycle (defined here as the fraction of the time the star is in a flare state) of ~25%. A publicly available 5 Å to 10 μm spectral energy distribution of GJ 699 is created and used to evaluate the atmospheric stability of a hypothetical, unmagnetized terrestrial planet in the habitable zone (r HZ ~ 0.1 au). Both thermal and nonthermal escape modeling indicate (1) the quiescent stellar XUV flux does not lead to strong atmospheric escape: atmospheric heating rates are comparable to periods of high solar activity on modern Earth, and (2) the flare environment could drive the atmosphere into a hydrodynamic loss regime at the observed flare duty cycle: sustained exposure to the flare environment of GJ 699 results in the loss of ≈87 Earth atmospheres Gyr -1 through thermal processes and ≈3 Earth atmospheres Gyr -1 through ion loss processes. These results suggest that if rocky planet atmospheres can survive the initial ~5 Gyr of high stellar activity, or if a second-generation atmosphere can be formed or acquired, the flare duty cycle may be the controlling stellar parameter for the stability of Earth-like atmospheres around old M stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Poromechanical cohesive interface element with combined Mode I-II cohesive zone elastoplasticity for simulating fracture in fluid-saturated porous media

A combined Mode I-II cohesive zone (CZ) elasto-plastic constitutive model, and a two-dimensional (2D) cohesive interface element (CIE) are formulated and implemented at small strain within an ABAQUS User Element (UEL) for simulating 2D crack nucleation and propagation in fluid-saturated porous media. Here, the CZ model mitigates problems of convergence for the global Newton-Raphson solver within ABAQUS, which when combined with a viscous stabilization procedure allows for simulation of post-peak response under load control for coupled poromechanical finite element analysis, such as concrete gravity dam stability analysis. Verification examples are presented, along with a more complex ambient limestone-concrete wedge fracture experiment, water-pressurized concrete wedge experiment, and concrete gravity dam stability analyses. A calibration procedure for estimating the CZ parameters is demonstrated with the limestone-concrete wedge fracture process. For the water-pressurized concrete wedge fracture experiment it is shown that the inherent time-dependence of the poromechanical CIE analysis provides a good match with experimental force versus displacement results at various crack mouth opening rates, yet misses the pore water pressure evolution ahead of the crack tip propagation. This is likely a result of the concrete being partially-saturated in the experiment, whereas the finite element analysis assumes fully water saturated concrete. For the concrete gravity dam analysis, it is shown that base crack opening and associated water uplift pressure leads to a reduced Factor of Safety, which is confirmed by separate analytical calculations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Economical and Environmentally Benign Extraction of Rare Earth Elements (REES) from Coal & Coal Byproducts

This final report provides a complete summary of the activities, results, analytical discussion, and overall evaluation of the project titled “Economical and Environmentally Benign Extraction of Rare Earth Elements (REES) from Coal & Coal Byproducts” under DOE Award Number DE-FE-0027155 that started in March 2016 and ended December 2017. Fly ash was selected as the coal-byproduct source material due to fact that it is readily available with no need for extensive methods to obtain the material, it is produced in large quantities (>50 million tons per year) and had REE concentrations similar to other coal-byproducts. The selected fly ash used throughout this project was from the Mill Creek power generating facility operated by Louisville Gas and Electric located in Louisville, KY and was subjected to a variety of physical and chemical characterization tests. Results from fusion extractions showed that the selected fly-ash had a TREE+Y concentration of 480 ppm with critical REEs concentration of 200 ppm. The fly ash had an outlook ratio of 1.25 and an estimated value of $16-$18 worth of salable REEs per 1-tonne of fly ash. Additional characterizations by optical evaluation, QEMSCAN, XRD, size fractionation, and SEM analysis showed the fly ash consisted of small glassy spherules with a size range between 1 to 110 µm (ave. diam. of 13 um), was heterogeneous in chemical composition (main crystalline phases: aluminum oxides and iron oxides) and was primarily an amorphous material (75 to 80%). A simple stepped approach was completed to estimate the total REE resource quantity. The approach included REE characterization of the representative samples, evaluation of fly-ash availability, and final determination estimated resource availability with regards to REE grade on a regional and national scale. This data represents the best available information and is based upon the assumptions that the power generating facility where the fly-ash was obtained will use the same coal sources (actual mines were identified), the coal materials will have relatively consistent REE concentrations, and the REE extraction process developed during this project can achieve 42% REE recovery (validated and confirmed). Calculations indicated that the estimated REE resource is approximately 175,000 tonnes with a current estimated value of $3,330MM. The proposed REE extraction and production process developed during this project used four fundamental steps; 1) fly-ash pretreatment to enhance REE extraction, 2) REE extraction by acid digestion, 3) REE separation/concentration by carbon adsorption and column chromatography, and 4) REE oxide production. Secondary processing steps to manage process residuals and additional processing techniques to produce value-added products were incorporated into the process during the project. These secondary steps were not only necessary to manage residuals, but also provided additional revenue streams that offset operational and capital expenditures. The process produces one value product stream (production of zeolite Na-P1), a solids waste stream, and one liquid stream that met RCRA discharge requirements. Based upon final design criteria and operational parameters, the proposed system could produce approximately 200 grams of REOs from 1-tonne of fly-ash, thereby representing a TREE+Y recovery of 42% (project target of > 25%). A detailed economic model was developed to evaluate both CAPEX and OPEX estimates for systems with varying capacities between 100 kg to 200 tonnes of fly ash processed per day. Using a standard system capacity of 10 tonne/day system, capital costs were estimated at $88/kg fly ash while operating costs were estimated at approximately $450/kg fly ash. This operating cost estimate includes a revenue of $495/tonne of fly ash processed from the value-added product produced from the system (zeolite Na-P1). Although operating cost savings due to zeolite production were significant, the capital + operating cost for a 10 tonne system was more expensive than the total dollar value of REEs present in the fly ash material. Specifically, the estimated cost per 1-tonne of fly ash treated is approximately $540 while the estimated value of REEs in the fly ash is $18-$20/tonne. This is an excessive difference showing that the proposed process is not economically feasible strictly on the basis of REE revenue compared to extraction costs. Although the current proposed system does not produce sufficient quantities of REEs or additional revenue sources to offset operational and capital costs, supplementary factors including US strategic concerns, commercial demands, and defense department requirements must be factored. At this time, the process developed during this project provides foundational information for future development of simple processes that require low capital investment and one that will extract a valuable quality and quantity of REE oxides from industrial waste.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Discovery of a 105-ms X-ray Pulsar in Kesteven-79: On the Nature of Compact Central Objects in Supernova Remnants

We report the discovery of 105-ms X-ray pulsations from the compact central object (CCO) in the supernova remnant \snr\ using data acquired with the {\it Newton X-Ray Multi-Mirror Mission). Using two observations of the pulsar taken 6-days apart we derive an upper limit on its spin-down rate of $\dot P < 9 \times 10"{-14}$-s-~$~{-l)$,a nd find no evidence for binary orbital motion. The implied energy loss rate is $\dot E < 3 \times 10A{36)$-ergs-s$A{-1)$, polar magnetic field strength is $B-{\rm p) < 3 \times 10A{12)$-G, and spin-down age is $\tau > 18.5$-kyr. The latter exceeds the remnant's estimated age, suggesting that the pulsar was born spinning near its current period. The X-ray spectrum of \psr\ is best characterized as a blackbody of temperature $kT {BB) =, 0.43\pm0.02$ keV, radius $R-{BB) \approx 1.3$-km, and $~I{\rm bol) = 5.2 \times 10A{33)$ ergs-sSA{-1)$ at $d = 7.1$-kpc. The sinusoidal light curve is modulated with a pulsed fraction of $>45\%$, suggestive of a small hot spot on the surface of the rotating neutron star. The lack of a discernible pulsar wind nebula is consistent with an interpretation of \psr\ as a rotation-powered pulsar whose spin-down luminosity falls below the empirical threshold for generating bright wind nebulae, $\dot E-{\rm c) = 4 \times 10A{36)$-ergs-sSA{-I)$. The age discrepancy suggests that its $\dot E$ has always been below $\dot E c$, perhaps a distinguishing property of the CCOs. Alternatively, the X-ray spectrum of \psr\ suggests a low-luminosity AXP, but the weak inferred $B-{\rm p)$ field is incompatible with a magnetar theory of its X-ray luminosity. The ordinary spin parameters discovered from \psr\ highlight the inability of existing theories to explain the high luminosities and temperatures of CCO thermal X-ray spectra.

Gotthelf, E. V.↗

Hierarchies of Models: Toward Understanding Planetary Nebulae

Stars like our sun (initial masses between 0.8 to 8 solar masses) end their lives as swollen red giants surrounded by cool extended atmospheres. The nuclear reactions in their cores create carbon, nitrogen and oxygen, which are transported by convection to the outer envelope of the stellar atmosphere. As the star finally collapses to become a white dwarf, this envelope is expelled from the star to form a planetary nebula (PN) rich in organic molecules. The physics, dynamics, and chemistry of these nebulae are poorly understood and have implications not only for our understanding of the stellar life cycle but also for organic astrochemistry and the creation of prebiotic molecules in interstellar space. We are working toward generating three-dimensional models of planetary nebulae (PNe), which include the size, orientation, shape, expansion rate and mass distribution of the nebula. Such a reconstruction of a PN is a challenging problem for several reasons. First, the data consist of images obtained over time from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and spectra obtained from Kitt Peak National Observatory (KPNO) and Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO). These images are of course taken from a single viewpoint in space, which amounts to a very challenging tomographic reconstruction. Second, the fact that we have two disparate and orthogonal data types requires that we utilize a method that allows these data to be used together to obtain a solution. To address these first two challenges we employ Bayesian model estimation using a parameterized physical model that incorporates much prior information about the known physics of the PN. In our previous works we have found that the forward problem of the comprehensive model is extremely time consuming. To address this challenge, we explore the use of a set of hierarchical models, which allow us to estimate increasingly more detailed sets of model parameters. These hierarchical models of increasing complexity are akin to scientific theories of increasing sophistication, with each new model/theory being a refinement of a previous one by either incorporating additional prior information or by introducing a new set of parameters to model an entirely new phenomenon. We apply these models to both a simulated and a real ellipsoidal PN to initially estimate the position, angular size, and orientation of the nebula as a two-dimensional object and use these estimates to later examine its three-dimensional properties. The efficiency/accuracy tradeoffs of the techniques are studied to determine the advantages and disadvantages of employing a set of hierarchical models over a single comprehensive model.

Knuth, Kevin H.↗

Hierarchies of Models: Toward Understanding Planetary Nebulae

Stars like our sun (initial masses between 0.8 to 8 solar masses) end their lives as swollen red giants surrounded by cool extended atmospheres. The nuclear reactions in their cores create carbon, nitrogen and oxygen, which are transported by convection to the outer envelope of the stellar atmosphere. As the star finally collapses to become a white dwarf, this envelope is expelled from the star to form a planetary nebula (PN) rich in organic molecules. The physics, dynamics, and chemistry of these nebulae are poorly understood and have implications not only for our understanding of the stellar life cycle but also for organic astrochemistry and the creation of prebiotic molecules in interstellar space. We are working toward generating three-dimensional models of planetary nebulae (PNe), which include the size, orientation, shape, expansion rate and mass distribution of the nebula. Such a reconstruction of a PN is a challenging problem for several reasons. First, the data consist of images obtained over time from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and spectra obtained from Kitt Peak National Observatory (KPNO) and Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO). These images are of course taken from a single viewpoint in space, which amounts to a very challenging tomographic reconstruction. Second, the fact that we have two disparate and orthogonal data types requires that we utilize a method that allows these data to be used together to obtain a solution. To address these first two challenges we employ Bayesian model estimation using a parameterized physical model that incorporates much prior information about the known physics of the PN. In our previous works we have found that the forward problem of the comprehensive model is extremely time consuming. To address this challenge, we explore the use of a set of hierarchical models, which allow us to estimate increasingly more detailed sets of model parameters. These hierarchical models of increasing complexity are akin to scientific theories of increasing sophistication, with each new model/theory being a refinement of a previous one by either incorporating additional prior information or by introducing a new set of parameters to model an entirely new phenomenon. We apply these models to both a simulated and a real ellipsoidal PN to initially estimate the position, angular size, and orientation of the nebula as a two-dimensional object and use these estimates to later examine its three-dimensional properties. The efficiency/accuracy tradeoffs of the techniques are studied to determine the advantages and disadvantages of employing a set of hierarchical models over a single comprehensive model.

Knuth, Kevin H.↗

Microphysical Retrievals from Simultaneous Measurements by Airborne and Ground Radars during OLYMPEX

The OLYMPEX field campaign took place over the Olympic Peninsula of Washington during winter 2015-2016. During the intensive observing period, several aircraft flights obtained multi-frequency airborne radar measurements at X-, Ku-, Ka, and W-band from radars aboard the ER-2 and DC-8 aircraft. In addition, ground radars at S- and X-band performed RHI scans under the aircraft ground tracks. These coincident datasets provide a wealth of complementary information about the hydrometeor particle sizes, shapes, and orientations.In order to synthesize these measurements and test the robustness of scattering models, an optimal estimation retrieval based upon a Hitschfeld-Bordan profiling algorithm has been developed. This algorithm retrieves profiles of the particle size distribution parameters Nw and Dm, and, in the ice phase, relative proportions of aggregate, pristine, and rimed particles, using scattering models with different size-density and size-aspect ratio relationships. Under this formulation, only the pristine particles are horizontally aligned and capable of producing non-zero ZDR and KDP.From the nadir-looking airborne multifrequency radars, we find that aggregates may be readily distinguished from rimed and pristine particles owing to their uniqueness in triple-frequency space. However, rimed and pristine particles occupy a similar region in this space and thus polarimetric measurements greatly enhance their identification in our retrieval framework. With these capabilities we will present analyses of three-dimensional hydrometeor mapping obtained during various OLYMPEX cases. Some features retrieved in these cases include a layer of enhanced aggregation about 2km above the melting layer, hypothesized to be maintained by orographic uplift. This layer is often situated above a layer of denser, aligned particles. Regions of riming and supercooled liquid water beneath generating cells are also identified by our retrieval algorithm. Comparisons to in-situ observations and evaluation of scattering models will be presented.

Munchak, S. Joseph↗

The Dark Energy Survey Supernova Programme: Modelling Selection Efficiency and Observed Core-collapse Supernova Contamination

The analysis of current and future cosmological surveys of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) at high redshift depends on the accuratephotometric classification of the SN events detected. Generating realistic simulations of photometric SN surveys constitutes anessential step for training and testing photometric classification algorithms, and for correcting biases introduced by selectioneffects and contamination arising from core-collapse SNe in the photometric SN Ia samples. We use published SN time-seriesspectrophotometric templates, rates, luminosity functions, and empirical relationships between SNe and their host galaxies toconstruct a framework for simulating photometric SN surveys. We present this framework in the context of the Dark EnergySurvey (DES) 5-yr photometric SN sample, comparing our simulations of DES with the observed DES transient populations.We demonstrate excellent agreement in many distributions, including Hubble residuals, between our simulations and data.We estimate the core collapse fraction expected in the DES SN sample after selection requirements are applied and beforephotometric classification. After testing different modelling choices and astrophysical assumptions underlying our simulation,we find that the predicted contamination varies from 7.2 to 11.7 per cent, with an average of 8.8 per cent and an r.m.s. of 1.1 percent. Our simulations are the first to reproduce the observed photometric SN and host galaxy properties in high-redshift surveyswithout fine-tuning the input parameters. The simulation methods presented here will be a critical component of the cosmologyanalysis of the DES photometric SN Ia sample: correcting for biases arising from contamination, and evaluating the associatedsystematic uncertainty.

M Vincenzi↗

Preliminary Sensorimotor and Cardiovascular Results from the Joint Russian/U.S. Pilot Field Test in Preparation for the Full Field Test

Ongoing collaborative research efforts between NASA's Neuroscience and Cardiovascular Laboratories, and the Institute of Biomedical Problems' (IBMP) Sensory-Motor and Countermeasures Laboratories have been measuring functional sensorimotor, cardiovascular and strength responses following bed rest, dry immersion, short-duration (Space Shuttle) and long-duration (Mir and International Space Station [ISS]) space flights. While the unloading paradigms associated with dry immersion and bed rest does serve as acceptable flight analogs, testing of crew responses following the long-duration flights previously has not been possible until a minimum of 24 hours after landing. As a result, it is not possible to estimate the nonlinear trend of the early (<24 hours) recovery process nor is it possible to accurately assess the full impact of the decrements associated with long-duration flight. To overcome these limitations, both the Russian and U.S. programs have implemented testing at the landing site. By joint agreement, this research effort has been identified as the functional Field Test (FT). For practical reasons the FT has been divided into two phases: the full FT and a preliminary pilot version (PFT) of the FT that is reduced in both length and scope. The primary goal of this research is to determine functional abilities in long-duration space-flight crews beginning as soon after landing as possible (< 2 hours) with one to three immediate follow-up measurements on the day of landing. This goal has both sensorimotor and cardiovascular elements, including evaluations of NASA's new anti-orthostatic compression garment and the Russian Kentavr garment. Functional sensorimotor measurements will include, but are not limited to, assessing hand/eye coordination, egressing from a seated position, walking normally without falling, measuring of dynamic visual acuity, discriminating different forces generated with both the hands and legs, recovering from a fall, coordinated walking involving tandem heel-to-toe placement, and determining postural ataxia while standing. The cardiovascular portion of the investigation includes measuring blood pressure and heart rate during a timed stand test in conjunction with postural ataxia testing (quiet stance sway) as well as cardiovascular responses during the other functional tasks. In addition to the immediate post-landing collection of data for the full FT, postflight data will be acquired between one and three more other times within the 24 hours after landing and will continue over the subsequent weeks until functional sensorimotor and cardiovascular responses have returned to preflight normative values. The PFT represents a single trial run comprised of a jointly agreed upon subset of tests from the full FT and relies heavily on IBMP's Sensory-Motor and Countermeasures Laboratories for content and implementation. The PFT has been collected on several ISS missions. Testing included: (1) a sit-to-stand test, (2) recovery from a fall where the crewmember began in the prone position on the ground and then stood for 3 minutes while cardiovascular stability was determined and postural ataxia data were acquired, and (3) a tandem heel-totoe walk test to determine changes in the central locomotor program. Video, cardiovascular parameters (heart rate and blood pressure), data from body-worn inertial sensors, and severity of postflight motion sickness were collected for each test session. In summary, the level of functional deficit is expected to be most profound during the acquisition of gravity loads immediately after landing when the demands for crew intervention in response to emergency operations will be greatest. Clearly measureable performance parameters such as ability to perform a seat egress, recover from a fall or the ability to see clearly when walking, and related physiologic data (orthostatic responses) are required to provide an evidence base for characterizing programmatic risks and the degree of variability among crewmembers for exploration missions where the crew will be unassisted after landing. Overall, these early functional and related physiologic measurements will allow estimation of nonlinear sensorimotor and cardiovascular recovery trends that has not been previously captured in over 50 years of space flight.

Reschke, M. F.↗

Preliminary Results from the Joint Russian and US Field Test: Measurement of Sensorimotor and Cardiovascular Responses Immediately Following Landing of the Soyuz Spacecraft

Ongoing collaborative research efforts between NASA's Neuroscience and Cardiovascular Laboratories, and the Institute of Biomedical Problems' (IBMP) Sensory-Motor and Countermeasures Laboratories have been measuring functional sensorimotor, cardiovascular and strength responses following bed rest, dry immersion, short duration (Space Shuttle) and long duration (Mir and International Space Station) space flights. While the unloading paradigms associated with dry immersion and bed rest have do serve as acceptable flight analogs, testing of crew responses following the long duration flights does not begin until a minimum of 24 hours after landing. As a result it is not possible to estimate the nonlinear trend of the early (<24 hr) recovery process nor is it possible to accurately assess the full impact of the decrements associated with long duration flight. To overcome these limitations both the Russian and U.S. sides have implemented testing at the time of landing and before the flight crews have left the landing site. By joint agreement this research effort has been identified as the functional Field Test (FT). For practical reasons the FT has been divided into two phases: the full FT and a preliminary pilot version (PFT) of the FT that is reduced in both length and scope. The primary goal of this research is to determine functional abilities in long duration space flight crews beginning as soon after landing as possible (< 2 hr) with one to three immediate follow-up measurements on the day of landing. This goal has both sensorimotor and cardiovascular elements including an evaluation of NASA's new anti-orthostatic compression garment as compared with the Russian Kentavr garment. Functional sensorimotor measurements will include, but are not limited to, assessment of hand/eye coordination, ability to egress from a seated position, walk normally without falling, measurement of dynamic visual acuity, ability to discriminate different forces generated with both the hands and legs, recovery from a fall, a coordinated walk involving tandem heel-to-toe placement and determination of postural ataxia while standing. The cardiovascular portion of the investigation includes blood pressure and heart rate measurements during a timed stand test in conjunction with postural ataxia testing. In addition to the immediate post-landing collection of data for the full FT, postflight data will be acquired at a minimum of one to three more other times within the 24 hr following landing and continue until functional sensorimotor and cardiovascular responses have returned to preflight normative values. The PFT represents a single trial run comprised of jointly agreed tests from the full FT and relies heavily on IBMP's Sensory-Motor and Countermeasures Laboratories for content, and implementation. The PFT is currently scheduled for the September 2013 landing of the Soyuz spacecraft (34S). Testing will include: (1) a sit-to-stand test, (2) recovery from a fall where the crewmember begins in the prone position on the ground and then stands for 3 min while cardiovascular stability is determined and postural ataxia data are acquired, and (3) a tandem heel-to-toe walk to determine changes in the central locomotor program. Video, cardiovascular parameters (heart rate and blood pressure), data from body-worn inertial sensors and severity of postflight motion sickness will be available for analysis. It is our intent to present, at this celebratory symposium, a summary of these data obtained from two crewmembers. In summary, the level of functional deficit is expected to be most profound during the acquisition of gravity loads immediately after landing when the demands for crew intervention in response to emergency operations will be greatest. Clearly measureable performance parameters such as ability to perform a seat egress, recover from a fall or the ability to see clearly when walking, and related physiological data (orthostatic responses) are required to provide an evidence base for characterizing programmatic risks and the degree of variability among crewmembers. Overall, these early functional and related physiological measurements will allow estimation of nonlinear sensorimotor and cardiovascular recovery trends to an accuracy that has not been previously captured in over 50 years of space flight.

Reschke, M. F.↗

A study of the threshold method utilizing raingage data

The threshold method for estimation of area-average rain rate relies on determination of the fractional area where rain rate exceeds a preset level of intensity. Previous studies have shown that the optimal threshold level depends on the climatological rain-rate distribution (RRD). It has also been noted, however, that the climatological RRD may be composed of an aggregate of distributions, one for each of several distinctly different synoptic conditions, each having its own optimal threshold. In this study, the impact of RRD variations on the threshold method is shown in an analysis of 1-min rainrate data from a network of tipping-bucket gauges in Darwin, Australia. Data are analyzed for two distinct regimes: the premonsoon environment, having isolated intense thunderstorms, and the active monsoon rains, having organized convective cell clusters that generate large areas of stratiform rain. It is found that a threshold of 10 mm/h results in the same threshold coefficient for both regimes, suggesting an alternative definition of optimal threshold as that which is least sensitive to distribution variations. The observed behavior of the threshold coefficient is well simulated by assumption of lognormal distributions with different scale parameters and same shape parameters.

Short, David A.↗

Power System for Venus Surface Exploration

A radioisotope power and cooling system is designed to provide electrical power for a probe operating on the surface of Venus. Most foreseeable electronics devices and sensors cannot operate at the 450 C ambient surface temperature of Venus. Because the mission duration is substantially long and the use of thermal mass to maintain an operable temperature range is likely impractical, some type of active refrigeration may be required to keep electronic components at a temperature below ambient. The fundamental cooling parameters are the cold sink temperature, the hot sink temperature, and the amount of heat to be removed. In this instance, it is anticipated that electronics would have a nominal operating temperature of 300 C. Due to the highly thermal convective nature of the high-density (90 bar CO2) atmosphere, the hot sink temperature was assumed to be 50 C, which provided a 500 C temperature of the cooler's heat rejecter to the ambient atmosphere. The majority of the heat load on the cooler is from the high temperature ambient surface environment on Venus, with a small contribution of heat generation from electronics and sensors. Both thermoelectric (RTG) and dynamic power conversion systems were analyzed, based on use of a standard isotope (General-purpose heat source, or GPHS) brick. For the radioisotope Stirling power converter configuration designed, the Sage model predicts a thermodynamic power output capacity of 478.1 watts, which slightly exceeds the required 469.1 watts. The hot sink temperature is 1200 C, and the cold sink temperature is 500 C. The required heat input is 1740 watts. This gives a thermodynamic efficiency of 27.48 %. It is estimated that the mechanical efficiency of the power converter design is on the order of 85 %, based on experimental measurements taken from 500-watt power class, laboratory-tested Stirling engines. The overall efficiency is calculated to be 23.36 %. The mass of the power converter is estimated at approximately 21.6 kg. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Landis, Geoffrey A.↗

A Quasi-Global Approach to Improve Day-Time Satellite Surface Soil Moisture Anomalies through the Land Surface Temperature Input

Passive microwave observations from various spaceborne sensors have been linked to the soil moisture of the Earth's surface layer. A new generation of passive microwave sensors are dedicated to retrieving this variable and make observations in the single theoretically optimal L-band frequency (1-2 GHz). Previous generations of passive microwave sensors made observations in a range of higher frequencies, allowing for simultaneous estimation of additional variables required for solving the radiative transfer equation. One of these additional variables is land surface temperature, which plays a unique role in the radiative transfer equation and has an influence on the final quality of retrieved soil moisture anomalies. This study presents an optimization procedure for soil moisture retrievals through a quasi-global precipitation-based verification technique, the so-called Rvalue metric. Various land surface temperature scenarios were evaluated in which biases were added to an existing linear regression, specifically focusing on improving the skills to capture the temporal variability of soil moisture. We focus on the relative quality of the day-time (01:30 pm) observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E), as these are theoretically most challenging due to the thermal equilibrium theory, and existing studies indicate that larger improvements are possible for these observations compared to their night-time (01:30 am) equivalent. Soil moisture data used in this study were retrieved through the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM), and in line with theory, both satellite paths show a unique and distinct degradation as a function of vegetation density. Both the ascending (01:30 pm) and descending (01:30 am) paths of the publicly available and widely used AMSR-E LPRM soil moisture products were used for benchmarking purposes. Several scenarios were employed in which the land surface temperature input for the radiative transfer was varied by imposing a bias on an existing regression. These scenarios were evaluated through the Rvalue technique, resulting in optimal bias values on top of this regression. In a next step, these optimal bias values were incorporated in order to re-calibrate the existing linear regression, resulting in a quasi-global uniform LST relation for day-time observations. In a final step, day-time soil moisture retrievals using the re-calibrated land surface temperature relation were again validated through the Rvalue technique. Results indicate an average increasing Rvalue of 16.5%, which indicates a better performance obtained through the re-calibration. This number was confirmed through an independent Triple Collocation verification over the same domain, demonstrating an average root mean square error reduction of 15.3%. Furthermore, a comparison against an extensive in situ database (679 stations) also indicates a generally higher quality for the re-calibrated dataset. Besides the improved day-time dataset, this study furthermore provides insights on the relative quality of soil moisture retrieved from AMSR-E's day- and night-time observations.

soil moisture↗