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At least 1,441 records · Page 80

From Simulation to Reality With Random Noise

The challenging environment of autonomous vehicle (AV) navigation necessitates certain functions be performed by deep neural networks. Optimizing these models involves collecting vast quantities of domain-specific training data and ensuring that the dataset is representative of expected conditions. High-fidelity simulation plays a vital role in making this process feasible, allowing a wide range of scenarios to be explored at low cost. However, learning from simulation introduces subtle biases into models, which can degrade real-world performance in unpredictable ways. This effect can be mitigated with learning schemes specialized to bridge distributional shifts (transfer learning). Given the complex nature of these methods, the underlying models, and their environments, meaningfully evaluating performance is notstraight forward. Many unrelated factors can effect an improvement in generalization accuracy, but a full ablation analysis is often difficult. To tease out signal from noise, it is necessary to understand how transfer learning performance is affected by noise itself. The goals of this paper are (i) to establish a domain randomization baseline for a simple classification transfer learning task and (ii) to validate the RRAV testbed as a platform for further research in sim-to-real learning. We generate imagery from a simulation of NASA Ames Research Center and train a small convolutional neural network (ConvNet) to classify position relative to a centerline. Further models are trained with different types of noise progressively added to the data. The models are deployed aboard the on-site test vehicle to test real-world performance. In our experiments, we find that such naive domain randomization raises sim-to-real accuracy from 64% to 79%, while training directly on real data yields an 89% accuracy ceiling. These results suggest that the isolated mechanism of domain randomization can significantly improve generalization.

simulation↗

Development of wind turbine blade recycling baselines in the United States

Over the past several years, the wind energy industry has received scrutiny regarding wind turbine blade (WTB) recycling due to the landfilling of WTBs caused by a lack of industrially viable recycling solutions. The amount of WTBs that will need to be recycled is set to increase in the United States as the deployment of wind energy is expected to rapidly grow to meet the nation's energy goals by 2035. While significant progress has been made worldwide, it is still unclear which WTB recycling solutions would be the most cost and energy effective within the United States for the existing fleet of wind turbines. To guide researchers and industry with a clear path forward, a range of options for WTB recycling in the United States are modeled through development of baseline scenarios and the use of formal life cycle assessment (LCA). Model data have been collected through literature review, industry engagement, and expert opinion regarding current end of life practices and considerations surrounding equipment, labor, and logistics. A detailed baseline for WTB decommissioning processes has been developed and used to assess alternative approaches, such as on-site shredding to compare the impacts on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The developed LCA model and baseline scenarios for WTB recycling is used to assess the current WTB decommissioning practices in the United States along with emerging recycling pathways, including cement kiln co-processing and pyrolysis. Initial findings indicate that there are different approaches to decommissioning WTBs in the United States, each of which has unique implications for recycling. In light of this finding, additional results from the modeling will be used to better understand decommissioning practices and assist in making educated decisions on recycling pathways for the future. Throughout the analysis, focus was given to where international efforts might differ from the United States. WTB recycling is occurring worldwide, and different countries have different drivers for creating markets for recycled WTB materials. The contrasts and similarities between the United States and other countries offer insight to areas of opportunity that the United States could investigate and areas that can be readily transferred from existing solutions. By modeling and characterizing the current decommissioning practices and potential recycling solutions for the United States, a clearer vision will be created for pathways forward as to how to handle end of life WTBs to enable more efficient and cost-effective opportunities for material recovery from end-of-life WTBs.

Korey, Matt↗

Model support roll balance and roll coupling

The design concepts of two specialized wind tunnel model support mechanisms are described. The forced oscillation roll balance mechanism was designed to meet the specific requirement to measure aerodynamic forces and moments to permit determination of the damping-in-roll parameters of winged configurations. A variable speed motor is used to oscillate the model by means of an offset crank. The oscillating motion is resisted by a torsion spring to provide a restoring torque and is attached to the section forward of the strain-gage balance. This spring action allows the model to be oscillated at a frequency for velocity resonance, whereby the mechanical spring and any aerodynamic spring balance. This spring action allows the model to be oscillated at a frequency for velocity resonance, whereby the mechanical spring and any aerodynamic spring balance out the model inertia. The only torque then required to oscillate the model at that particular frequency is equal to that due to aerodynamic damping. The second mechanism, a roll coupling for remotely rotating a model, was designed to invert or roll a model about its longitudinal axis when mounted for testing.

Sharpes, R. E.↗

A conceptual model for how to design for building envelope characteristics. Impact of thermal comfort intervals and thermal mass on commercial buildings in U.S. climates

The paper presents a simplified conceptual model for energy demand calculations based on building envelope characteristics, thermal mass and local climate. It is based on a network model and lumped analysis of the dynamic process. Characteristic parameters for the buildings are suggested; Driving temperature (DT), Driving temperature difference, (DTD), External Load Temperature (ELT), and Thermal Load Resistance (TLR). The Building Envelope Performance ( BEP 0 ), based on a controlled constant indoor temperature is introduced. Solution techniques using stable explicit forward differences based on analytical solutions are derived. The conceptual model has been used for mapping the Driving temperature difference and introduced two performance factors and . The first factor represents the effect of thermal comfort interval and thermal mass on the energy demand. The latter represents the ratio between cooling and heating energy demand. These three parameters and factors have been visualized on U.S. maps and enable a possibility to communicate the demand of energy, and cooling and the coupling to building characteristics, in a concise way.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Helicopter rotor wake geometry and its influence in forward flight. Volume 1: Generalized wake geometry and wake effect on rotor airloads and performance

An analytic investigation to generalize wake geometry of a helicopter rotor in steady level forward flight and to demonstrate the influence of wake deformation in the prediction of rotor airloads and performance is described. Volume 1 presents a first level generalized wake model based on theoretically predicted tip vortex geometries for a selected representative blade design. The tip vortex distortions are generalized in equation form as displacements from the classical undistorted tip vortex geometry in terms of vortex age, blade azimuth, rotor advance ratio, thrust coefficient, and number of blades. These equations were programmed to provide distorted wake coordinates at very low cost for use in rotor airflow and airloads prediction analyses. The sensitivity of predicted rotor airloads, performance, and blade bending moments to the modeling of the tip vortex distortion are demonstrated for low to moderately high advance ratios for a representative rotor and the H-34 rotor. Comparisons with H-34 rotor test data demonstrate the effects of the classical, predicted distorted, and the newly developed generalized wake models on airloads and blade bending moments. Use of distorted wake models results in the occurrence of numerous blade-vortex interactions on the forward and lateral sides of the rotor disk. The significance of these interactions is related to the number and degree of proximity to the blades of the tip vortices. The correlation obtained with the distorted wake models (generalized and predicted) is encouraging.

Egolf, T. A.↗

Constitutive Model Development for Aging Polymer Encapsulants (ASC P&EM FY2021 L2 Milestone 7836)

This SAND report fulfills the completion requirements for the ASC Physics and Engineering Modeling Level 2 Milestone 7836 during Fiscal Year 2021. The Sandia Simplified potential energy clock (SPEC) non-linear viscoelastic constitutive model was developed to predict a whole host of polymer glass physical behaviors in order to provide a tool to assess the effects of stress on these materials over their lifecycle. Polymer glasses are used extensively in applications such as electronics packaging, where encapsulants and adhesives can be critical to device performance. In this work, the focus is on assessing the performance of the model in predicting material evolution associated with long-term physical aging, an area that the model has not been fully vetted in. These predictions are key to utilizing models to help demonstrate electronics packaging component reliability over decades long service lives, a task that is very costly and time consuming to execute experimentally. The initiating hypothesis for the work was that a model calibration process can be defined that enables confidence in physical aging predictions under ND relevant environments and timescales without sacrificing other predictive capabilities. To test the hypothesis, an extensive suite of calibration and aging data was assembled from a combination of prior work and collaborating projects (Aging and Lifetimes as well as the DoD Joint Munitions Program) for two mission relevant epoxy encapsulants, 828DGEBA/DEA and 828DGEBA/T403. Multiple model calibration processes were developed and evaluated against the entire set of data for each material. A qualitative assessment of each calibration's ability to predict the wide range of aging responses was key to ranking the calibrations against each other. During this evaluation, predictions that were identified as non-physical, i.e., demonstrated something that was qualitatively different than known material behavior, were heavily weighted against the calibration performance. Thus, unphysical predictions for one aspect of aging response could generate a lower overall rating for a calibration process even if that process generated better quantitative predictions for another aspect of aging response. This insurance that all predictions are qualitatively correct is important to the overall aim of utilizing the model to predict residual stress evolution, which will depend on the interplay amongst the different material aging responses. The DSC-focused calibration procedure generated the best all-around aging predictions for both materials, demonstrating material models that can qualitatively predict the whole host of different physical aging responses that have been measured. This step forward in predictive capability comes from an unanticipated source, utilization of calorimetry measurements to specify model parameters. The DSC-focused calibration technique performed better than compression-focused techniques that more heavily weigh measurements more closely related to the structural responses to be predicted. Indeed, the DSC-focused calibration procedure was only possible due to recent incorporation of the enthalpy and heat capacity features into SPEC that was newly verified during this L2 milestone. Fundamentally similar aspects of the two material model calibrations as well as parametric studies to assess sensitives of the aging predictions are discussed within the report. A perspective on the next steps to the overall goal of residual stress evolution predictions under stockpile conditions closes the report.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

An Inverse Chance-constrained Approach to the Calibration of Robust Models

This paper proposes a strategy to calibrate computational models according to uncertain input-output data. To this end, uncertainty in the data is first quantified by creating adversarial data sets. Samples drawn from such sets are then mapped from the input-output space to the parameter space using an inverse mapping. This mapping minimizes the collective output spread of an ensemble of point predictions while satisfying a set of individual data-matching requirements. The distribution of the resulting parameter points, which often exhibits strong parameter dependencies, is then modeled using sliced-normals. The chance-constrained formulation used to learn this distribution enables the analyst to trade-off a greater likelihood for most of the data against a lower likelihood for some of the data thereby relaxing the conservatism of the calibrated model. This formulation not only neglects the worst-performing quantiles of each adversarial distribution but also eliminates the potentially serious effects that outliers might have on the resulting model. This calibration approach not only has a considerably lower computational cost than the standard forward approach but it also allows for the identification of suitable distribution classes, which in turn yield better calibrated models.

Calibration↗

Driving the grid forward: How electric vehicle adoption shapes power system infrastructure and emissions

We model the effect of plug-in electric vehicle (EV) adoption on U.S. power system generator capacity investment, operations, and emissions through 2050 by estimating power systems outcomes under a range of EV adoption trajectory scenarios. Our EV adoption scenarios are informed by 1) an Energy Information Administration scenario with no policy intervention, 2) EV growth expected under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), 3) a Biden Administration 50% EV sales target by 2030, 4) the Environmental Protection Agency’s projections under vehicle emissions standards, and 5) the International Energy Agency’s roadmap to Net Zero by 2050. We find across these scenarios that increasing EV adoption induces investment in new wind, solar, storage, and natural gas capacity, affecting power generation mix and emissions. The net effect of increasing EV adoption beyond our IRA base case is to increase power sector emissions by about 5 mtCO 2 eq per EV-year in 2026 (comparable to displaced gasoline vehicle combustion emissions), but this effect rapidly drops to annual levels below 1 mtCO 2 eq per EV-year by 2032 and continues below this level through 2050. Consequential effects of EV adoption vary regionally, with most regions primarily increasing wind or solar capacity and some regions primarily increasing natural gas capacity, even in 2050. Our national emissions estimates per EV-year are relatively robust to the level of EV adoption beyond our baseline and to variation in assumptions about power systems, EV behavior, and policy.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

The X-ray halo of an extremely luminous LSB disk galaxy

We are continuing to refine our upper limit on emission from halo gas in Malin 2. The upper limit is, of course, below the detected flux, but is made more difficult to quantify by the disk and possible AGN sources. We are also exploring spectral and spatial-size constraints to help separate the sources of emission. On the theory side, more recent work on the X-ray halo luminosity from halo gas leftover from galaxy formation has lowered the prediction for disk galaxies (e.g. Toft et al. 2002, MNRAS, 335, 799). While our upper limit is well below the original prediction, refinements in model have moved the theoretical goalposts, so that the observation may be consistent with newer models. A recent theoretical development, which our observations of Malin 2 appear to support, is that a substantial amount of mass can be accreted onto galaxies without being heated at a virial shock. The previous standard theory was that gas accreting into a halo hits a virial shock and is heated to high temperatures, which could produce X-ray halos in massive galaxies. Recent models show that "smooth accretion" of matter bypasses the virial shocking (Murali e t al. 2002, ApJ, 571, 1; Birnboim & Dekel 2003, MNRAS, 345, 349). Additionally, new hydrodynamical simulations of galaxy mergers by UCSC graduate student T. J. Cox show that hot gas halos can be created by gas blown out from the merger, taking up orbital energy of the merging galaxies (Cox et al. 2004, ApJ, 607, L87). If mergers rather than virial shocking are the origin of hot gas halos, the existence of an X-ray halo should depend more on past merger activity than halo mass. Then it makes sense that elliptical galaxies and poor groups with ellipticals, which are probably formed in mergers, have X-ray gas halos; while a giant, quiescent LSB disk galaxy like Malin 2, which has never suffered a major merger, does not have an X-ray halo. While both the observational expectations and theoretical models have changed since we began this project, which has forced us to re-evaluate the goals, we are pressing forward to firm up the observations and put them in context of the current models for X-ray halos of massive galaxies.

Weiner, Benjamin J.↗

Surface and Atmospheric Shortwave Radiative Fluxes From ISCCP Data and Fu-Liou Algorithm at Higher Spatial and Vertical Resolution

NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) has provided surface and TOA shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes using International Satellite Cloud Climatology data as the primary input. Release 4.0 came out in 2019, with data from July 1983 through June 2017, and improved validation stats relative to Release 3.0 (Stackhouse et al., 2012). Release 4.0 used the newly reprocessed ISCCP H data set. The shortwave algorithm for versions 3 and 4 has been based on the Pinker and Laszlo (1992) algorithm, which relies on the satellite-measured shortwave radiance to produce a TOA albedo. This background TOA albedo is made utilizing the background clear-sky visible radiance (called clear-sky composite radiance in the ISCCP data) and applying narrowband-to-broadband angular distribution models. Using a climatological aerosol assumption, the surface albedo is estimated using radiative transfer based (i.e., Fu/Liou radiative transfer model; Fu and Liou, 1993) look-up tables. Using this surface albedo and an instantaneous TOA albedo, the look-up tables are used to adjust both the aerosol optical depth (for clear sky) and cloud optical depth (for cloudy sky) for each scene. These properties and look up tables are then used to generate surface fluxes. While this has worked well to provide useful fluxes, it has occasionally resulted in inaccurate direct and diffuse surface SW fluxes due to the overreliance on aerosol optical depth. With increased computational power and storage now available, a more direct approach is now possible. Here we present a different approach for a future high resolution SRB Release 5.0. We replace the Pinker-Laszlo lookup table approach with a forward call to the Fu-Liou radiative transfer model as modified by the CERES team (Rose et al., 2006). In addition to being a proven radiation code, Fu-Liou allows the calculation of fluxes at different atmospheric levels and spectral bands, which will provide more insight into the surface radiation budget, its variability and attribution. It is expected that horizontal resolution will increase to at least 0.5°x0.5° from the current 1°x1°. Here we demonstrate a preliminary look at the next SRB, and show comparisons with the current release.

Earth Radiation Budget↗

Response studies of rotors and rotor blades with application to aeroelastic tailoring

Various tools for the aeroelastic stability and response analysis of rotor blades in hover and forward flight were developed and incorporated in a comprehensive package capable of performing aeroelastic tailoring of rotor blades in forward flight. The results indicate that substantial vibration reductions, of order 15-40%, in the vibratory hub shears can be achieved by relatively small modifications of the initial design. Furthermore the optimized blade can be up to 20% lighter than the original design. Accomplishments are reported for the following tasks: (1) finite element modeling of rotary-wing aeroelastic problems in hover and forward flight; (2) development of numerical methods for calculating the aeroelastic response and stability of rotor blades in forward fight; (3) formulation of the helicopter air resonance problem in hover with active controls; and (4) optimum design of rotor blades for vibration reduction in forward flight.

Friedmann, P. P.↗

A scattering model for forested area

A forested area is modeled as a volume of randomly oriented and distributed disc-shaped, or needle-shaped leaves shading a distribution of branches modeled as randomly oriented finite-length, dielectric cylinders above an irregular soil surface. Since the radii of branches have a wide range of sizes, the model only requires the length of a branch to be large compared with its radius which may be any size relative to the incident wavelength. In addition, the model also assumes the thickness of a disc-shaped leaf or the radius of a needle-shaped leaf is much smaller than the electromagnetic wavelength. The scattering phase matrices for disc, needle, and cylinder are developed in terms of the scattering amplitudes of the corresponding fields which are computed by the forward scattering theorem. These quantities along with the Kirchoff scattering model for a randomly rough surface are used in the standard radiative transfer formulation to compute the backscattering coefficient. Numerical illustrations for the backscattering coefficient are given as a function of the shading factor, incidence angle, leaf orientation distribution, branch orientation distribution, and the number density of leaves. Also illustrated are the properties of the extinction coefficient as a function of leaf and branch orientation distributions. Comparisons are made with measured backscattering coefficients from forested areas reported in the literature.

Karam, M. A.↗

Machine-Learning Assisted Identification of Accurate Battery Lifetime Models with Uncertainty

Reduced-order battery lifetime models, which consist of algebraic expressions for various aging modes, are widely utilized for extrapolating degradation trends from accelerated aging tests to real-world aging scenarios. Identifying models with high accuracy and low uncertainty is crucial for ensuring that model extrapolations are believable, however, it is difficult to compose expressions that accurately predict multivariate data trends; a review of cycling degradation models from literature reveals a wide variety of functional relationships. Here, a machine-learning assisted model identification method is utilized to fit degradation in a stand-out LFP-Gr aging data set, with uncertainty quantified by bootstrap resampling. The model identified in this work results in approximately half the mean absolute error of a human expert model. Models are validated by converting to a state-equation form and comparing predictions against cells aging under varying loads. Parameter uncertainty is carried forward into an energy storage system simulation to estimate the impact of aging model uncertainty on system lifetime. The new model identification method used here reduces life-prediction uncertainty by more than a factor of three (86% ± 5% relative capacity at 10 years for human-expert model, 88.5% ± 1.5% for machine-learning assisted model), empowering more confident estimates of energy storage system lifetime.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Wind-Tunnel Investigation of the Stability of the Jettisonable Nose Section of the X-3 Airplane

Because previous work has indicated that jettisonable nose sections of airplanes may be inherently unstable, and thus may cause dangerous centripetal accelerations on a pilot after jettisoning during high-speed flight, an investigation has been conducted in the Langley 20-foot free-spinning tunnel to determine the behavior in descent of a model of the jettisonable nose section of the Douglas X-3 airplane. The effects of varying the center-of-gravity position, of attaching fins of various sizes, and of installing a stabilizing parachute were investigated. In the investigation the model descended with its front and trimmed 36 deg above the horizontal and rotated about a vertical wind axis while rolling about its longitudinal body axis. The nose section was made to descend in a stable front-down attitude when stabilizing fins were installed in conjunction with movement of the center of gravity forward or when a stable parachute was attached to the model.

Scher, Stanley H.↗

Laser-system model for enhanced operational performance and flexibility on OMEGA EP

The development of laser performance models having real-time prediction capability for the OMEGA EP laser system has been essential in meeting requests from its user community for increasingly complex pulse shapes that span a wide range of energies. The laser operations model PSOPS provides rapid and accurate predictions of OMEGA EP laser-system performance in both forward and backward directions, a user-friendly interface and rapid optimization capability between shots. We describe the model’s features and show how PSOPS has allowed real-time optimization of the laser-system configuration in order to satisfy the demands of rapidly evolving experimental campaign needs. We also discuss several enhancements to laser-system performance accuracy and flexibility enabled by PSOPS.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Consensus DOE Advanced Fuels Campaign TREAT/SATS Test Plan [Slides]

This record is comprised of summary slides of the Combined TREAT-LOC & SATS Integral LOCA Experiment Plan. The experimental program has been developed to specifically address data gaps and opportunities identified through detailed review of the existing public knowledgebase on LOCA FFRD and specific experimental development for prototypic LOCA conditions for LWR systems. The test program relies on a unique combination of in-pile and out-of-pile experimental approaches to (1) provide clear tieback to the existing integral and semi-integral LOCA experiment database using state-of-the-art facilities. More importantly, this program will systematically investigate the impacts of: (2) prototypic HBu fuel and cladding thermomechanical behaviors under postulated LWR LOCA conditions never fully investigated before. These conditions correspond with prototypic decay-energy heat up (DEH) and stored-energy heat up (SEH) conditions. Unique TREAT capability will provide first evaluation of SEH conditions on HBu fuels. The test program includes an emphasis on developing improved mechanistic understanding of key phenomena through independent experimental systems, development of a database to support fuel performance modeling tools, world leading advanced materials characterization, and the most advanced approach to in-situ diagnostics ever deployed to evaluate FFRD. The results will represent a significant leap forward in the evaluation of prototypic conditions and novel data to support modeling development and validation, as well as to inform the technical basis of LOCA-induced FFRD.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Classification of Nuclear Reactor Operations Using Spatial Importance and Multisensor Networks

Distributed multisensor networks record multiple data streams that can be used as inputs to machine learning models designed to classify operations relevant to proliferation at nuclear reactors. The goal of this work is to demonstrate methods to assess the importance of each node (a single multisensor) and region (a group of proximate multisensors) to machine learning model performance in a reactor monitoring scenario. This, in turn, provides insight into model behavior, a critical requirement of data-driven applications in nuclear security. Using data collected at the High Flux Isotope Reactor at Oak Ridge National Laboratory via a network of Merlyn multisensors, two different models were trained to classify the reactor’s operational state: a hidden Markov model (HMM), which is simpler and more transparent, and a feed-forward neural network, which is less inherently interpretable. Traditional wrapper methods for feature importance were extended to identify nodes and regions in the multisensor network with strong positive and negative impacts on the classification problem. These spatial-importance algorithms were evaluated on the two different classifiers. The classification accuracy was then improved relative to baseline models via feature selection from 0.583 to 0.839 and from 0.811 ± 0.005 to 0.884 ± 0.004 for the HMM and feed-forward neural network, respectively. While some differences in node and region importance were observed when using different classifiers and wrapper methods, the nodes near the facility’s cooling tower were consistently identified as important—a conclusion further supported by studies on feature importance in decision trees. Node and region importance methods are model-agnostic, inform feature selection for improved model performance, and can provide insight into opaque classification models in the nuclear security domain.

Tibbetts, Jake↗

Frame invariant neural network closures for Kraichnan turbulence

Numerical simulations of geophysical and atmospheric flows have to rely on parameterizations of subgrid scale processes due to their limited spatial resolution. Despite substantial progress in developing parameterization (or closure) models for subgrid scale (SGS) processes using physical insights and mathematical approximations, they remain imperfect and can lead to inaccurate predictions. In recent years, machine learning has been successful in extracting complex patterns from high-resolution spatio-temporal data, leading to improved parameterization models, and ultimately better coarse grid prediction. However, the inability to satisfy known physics and poor generalization hinders the application of these models for real-world problems. In this work, we put forth a frame invariant closure approach to improve the accuracy and generalizability of deep learning-based subgrid scale closure models by embedding physical symmetries directly into the structure of the neural network. Specifically, we utilized specialized layers within the convolutional neural network in such a way that desired constraints are theoretically guaranteed without the need for any regularization terms. We demonstrate our framework for a two-dimensional decaying turbulence test case mostly characterized by the forward enstrophy cascade. We show that our frame invariant SGS model (i) accurately predicts the subgrid scale source term, (ii) respects the physical symmetries such as translation, Galilean, and rotation invariance, and (iii) is numerically stable when implemented in coarse-grid simulation with generalization to different initial conditions and Reynolds number. This work opens up a possibility of connecting physics-based theories and data-driven modeling paradigms, and thus represents a promising step towards the development of physically consistent data-driven turbulence closure models.

42 ENGINEERING↗