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At least 1,441 records · Page 80
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

EVALUATION OF HRA METHODOLOGIES FOR APPLICATION IN SDP WORK

This study critically evaluates human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies applicable to regulatory probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) model, with a particular focus on their role in supporting the significance determination process (SDP) in nuclear safety assessment. Firstly, three widely utilized HRA methods – IDHEAS-ECA, SPAR-H, and ASEP/THERP – were qualitatively and quantitatively assessed. Qualitative assessments were conducted using attributes from the NEA/CSNI/R(2015)1 report, while quantitative evaluations employed regression and correlation analyses to compare predicted human error probabilities (HEPs) against empirical data. Results reveal distinct strengths, for example, IDHEAS-ECA’s robust predictive accuracy and K-HRA’s alignment with operational practices. In addition, dependency analysis and recovery analysis were critically evaluated. For dependency analysis, the methods’ handling of inter-task dependencies and their impact on HEPs were examined, while recovery analysis highlighted strategies for mitigating failure events. Furthermore, strategies were proposed to evaluate performance-shaping factors under conditions of reduced human performance, such as stress, fatigue, or cognitive overload, addressing specific challenges faced in SDP evaluations. Human errors from KINS’s operational performance information system event reports were evaluated as a case study. This study identifies gaps and provides actionable insights to ensure their validity and applicability in SDP HRA applications. This paper is a part of research conducted by KINS, and it should be noted that this result does not represent the regulatory position of KINS.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS1994

Multiparameter radar study of rainfall: Potential application to area-time integral studies

Multiparameter radars measure one or more additional parameters in addition to the coventional reflectivity factor. The combination of radar observations from a multiparameter radar is used to study the time evolution of rainstorms. A technique is presented to self-consistently compare the area-time integral (ATI) and rainfall volume estimates from convective storms, using two different measurements from a multiparameter radar. Rainfall volumes for the lifetime of individual storms are computed using the reflectivity at S band (10-cm wavelength) as well as one-way specific attenuation at X band (3-cm wavelength). Area-time integrals are computed by summing all areas in each radar snapshot having reflectivities (S band) in excess of a preselected threshold. The multiparameter radar data used in this study were acquired by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) CP-2 radar during the Cooperative Huntsville Meteorological Experiment (COHMEX) and the Convection and Precipitation/Electrification Experiment (CaPE), respectively. ATI studies were accomplished in this work using multiparameter radar data acquired during the lifetime of six convective events that occurred in the COHMEX radar coverage area. A case study from the COMHEX field campaign (20 July 1986) was selected to depict the various stages in the evolution of a storm over which the ATI and rainfall volume computations were performed using multiparameter radar data. Another case study from the CaPE field campaign (12 August 1991) was used to demonstrate the evolution of a convective cell based on differential reflectivity observations.

Raghavan, R.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Role of Low-Level, Terrain-Induced Jets in Rainfall Variability in Tigris Euphrates Headwaters

Rainfall variability in the Tigris Euphrates headwaters is a result of interaction between topography and meteorological features at a range of spatial scales. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, driven by the NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2), has been implemented to better understand these interactions. Simulations were performed over a domain covering most of the Middle East. The extended simulation period (1983 - 2013) enables us to study seasonality, interannual variability, spatial variability, and extreme events of rainfall. Results showed that the annual cycle of precipitation produced by WRF agrees much more closely with observations than does R-2. This was particularly evident during the transition months of April and October, which were further examined to study the underlying physical mechanisms. In both months, WRF improves representation of interannual variability relative to R-2, with a substantially larger benefit in April. This improvement results primarily from WRFs ability to resolve two low-level, terrain-induced flows in the region that are either absent or weak in R-2: one parallel to the western edge of the Zagros Mountains, and one along the east Turkish highlands. The first shows a complete reversal in its direction during wet and dry days, when flowing southeasterly it transports moisture from the Persian Gulf to the region, and when flowing northwesterly it blocks moisture and transports it away from the region. The second is more directly related to synoptic-scale systems and carries moist, warm air from the Mediterranean and Red Seas toward the region. The combined contribution of these flows explains about 50 of interannual variability in both WRF and observations for April and October precipitation.

rainfall variability↗
NASA NTRS1986

High precision U-PB geochronology and implications for the tectonic evolution of the Superior Province

The underlying mechanisms of Archean tectonics and the degree to which modern plate tectonic models are applicable early in Earth's history continue to be a subject of considerable debate. A precise knowledge of the timing of geological events is of the utmost importance in studying this problem. The high precision U-Pb method has been applied in recent years to rock units in many areas of the Superior Province. Most of these data have precisions of about + or - 2-3 Ma. The resulting detailed chronologies of local igneous development and the regional age relationships furnish tight constraints on any Archean tectonic model. Superior province terrains can be classified into 3 types: (1) low grade areas dominated by meta-volcanic rocks (greenstone belts); (2) high grade, largely metaplutonic areas with abundant orthogneiss and foliated to massive I-type granitoid bodies; and (3) high grade areas with abundant metasediments, paragneiss and S-type plutons. Most of the U-Pb age determinations have been done on type 1 terrains with very few having been done in type 3 terrains. A compilation of over 120 ages indicates that the major part of igneous activity took place in the period 2760-2670 Ma, known as the Kenoran event. This event was ubiquitous throughout the Superior Province.

Davis, D. W.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Storylines for the 1997 New Year’s Flood: The role of watershed antecedent conditions and future warming in shaping discharge in the Truckee River watershed

The 1997 New Year’s flood was among the most devastating floods in the Truckee River watershed located in western Nevada. This event resulted from complex interactions of flood drivers, such as extreme precipitation, wet antecedent watershed conditions, warm temperatures and rapid snowmelt. We leveraged simulated forcings from the regionally refined mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM-E3SM) and a process-based hydrological model to recreate the 1997 New Year’s flood for the Truckee River watershed across four climate warming levels ranging from the current temperatures to + 4° C. For each scenario, we conducted ensemble simulations with the same forcing but with 100 different seasonal watershed antecedent conditions, which were randomly sampled from long-term hydrological simulations. The results show that the 1997 New Year’s flood can be reproduced or exceeded consistently only when the antecedent watershed conditions are wet, specifically when streamflows are above the 75th percentile of the climatological value. There is negligible change in ensemble mean peakflows for Truckee River near Reno; however, there are increases of 18% and 14% under the warming levels of + 3° C and + 4° C, respectively. The increases in peakflows under future climate warming are attributed to wetter antecedent watershed conditions and enhanced snowmelt. Furthermore, the largest increases in peakflows occur at small, high-elevation headwater basins along the Sierra Nevada crest. This study highlights that changes in extreme flood events will result from the complex interplay of multiple flood drivers. It also demonstrates the potential of storyline approaches to analyze future realizations of these extreme events under different climate scenarios.

Climate change impact study↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Nuclear and Radiological Security in Polarized Times: Safeguarding Against Extremist Insider Threats

Domestic violent extremism has been on the rise in recent years, fueled by growing political polarization, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the spread of misinformation online. This concerning trend raises an important question: has this increase in extremist violence manifested in more incidents involving radioactive or nuclear (RN) materials and a corresponding security concern? To explore this question, we analyzed existing data on events involving chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear materials over time. Specifically, we examined the rate of RN-related incidents, the targets of these events, and the ideologies motivating the perpetrators by using the Violent Non-State Actor Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Event Database from the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism. Our analysis aimed to determine whether the broader rise of violent extremism has translated to an elevated risk of attacks involving RN materials. Results of the analysis revealed that there was no clear increase in events involving RN material in the dataset. However, given the rarity of these events, this conclusion does not indicate that such a trend might not appear in coming years if violent extremism continues to rise. To address the potential risk presented by violent extremism, in addition to quantifying the frequency of RN events, we also reviewed traits that could make organizations more susceptible to insider threats from radicalized employees. Focusing on the literature around counterproductive workplace behavior, we identified organizational characteristics that might increase the risk of malicious acts committed by radicalized insiders. These risk factors include abusive leadership, situational constraints, and organizational injustice. Finally, using these organizational risk characteristics, we discuss interventions that organizations with RN material can take to reduce their risk of attacks stemming from violent extremism while still protecting individual rights to privacy and civil liberties. Overall, this article provides an overview of the intersections between rising domestic extremism, insider threats, and risks posed by RN materials. We present current data on trends and patterns in this space as well as practical guidance for organizational resilience.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of the J / ψ Polarization with Respect to the Event Plane in Pb-Pb Collisions at the LHC

We study the polarization of inclusive J/ψ produced in Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{^sNN}$ = 5.02 TeV at the LHC in the dimuon channel, via the measurement of the angular distribution of its decay products. We perform the study in the rapidity region 2.5 < y < 4, for three transverse momentum intervals (2 < p T < 4, 4 < p T < 6, 6 < p T < 10 GeV/c) and as a function of the centrality of the collision for 2 < p T < 6 GeV/c. For the first time, the polarization is measured with respect to the event plane of the collision, by considering the angle between the positive-charge decay muon in the J/ψ rest frame and the axis perpendicular to the event-plane vector in the laboratory system. A small transverse polarization is measured, with a significance reaching 3.9σ at low p T and for intermediate centrality values. The polarization could be connected with the behavior of the quark-gluon plasma, formed in Pb-Pb collisions, as a rotating fluid with large vorticity, as well as with the existence of a strong magnetic field in the early stage of its formation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2017

Design Considerations for Attitude State Awareness and Prevention of Entry into Unusual Attitudes

Loss of control - inflight (LOC-I) has historically represented the largest category of commercial aviation fatal accidents. A review of the worldwide transport airplane accidents (2001-2010) evinced that loss of attitude or energy state awareness was responsible for a large majority of the LOC-I events. A Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) study of 18 worldwide loss-of-control accidents and incidents determined that flight crew loss of attitude awareness or energy state awareness due to lack of external visual reference cues was a significant causal factor in 17 of the 18 reviewed flights. CAST recommended that "Virtual Day-Visual Meteorological Condition" (Virtual Day-VMC) displays be developed to provide the visual cues necessary to prevent loss-of-control resulting from flight crew spatial disorientation and loss of energy state awareness. Synthetic vision or equivalent systems (SVS) were identified for a design "safety enhancement" (SE-200). Part of this SE involves the conduct of research for developing minimum aviation system performance standards (MASPS) for these flight deck display technologies to aid flight crew attitude and energy state awareness similar to that of a virtual day-VMC-like environment. This paper will describe a novel experimental approach to evaluating a flight crew's ability to maintain attitude awareness and to prevent entry into unusual attitudes across several SVS optical flow design considerations. Flight crews were subjected to compound-event scenarios designed to elicit channelized attention and startle/surprise within the crew. These high-fidelity scenarios, designed from real-world events, enable evaluation of the efficacy of SVS at improving flight crew attitude awareness to reduce the occurrence of LOC-I incidents in commercial flight operations.

Ellis, Kyle K. E.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accident event progression, gaps, and key performance indicators for steam generator tube rupture events in water-cooled SMRs: A review

According to historical records of reactor-related incidents, a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) is one of the most common occurrences at operating pressurized water reactors (PWRs). Such design-basis accidents (DBAs) could lead to a direct path for radionuclides to be released to the atmosphere via the safety and relief valves, making assessments of radionuclide discharge from operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) into the environment crucial for ensuring safety. In such analyses, the primary focus has been on the extent of radioactive release, not the potential damage to the core. Moreover, significant and timely intervention by operators is needed during the initial stages of SGTRs in order to avert overfilling of the SGs, as well as to restrict the dissemination of radioactive materials. Determining the event sequence and phases that occur during an SGTR incident in an advanced passive (e.g., AP1000) water-cooled nuclear reactor is crucial for implementing effective passive safety systems (PSSs) for a specific water-cooled small modular reactor (SMR) design. Here this study provides a comprehensive review of the accident event progression, associated physical phenomena, knowledge gaps, and key performance indicators that must be evaluated and assessed in thermal-hydraulics models, based on relevant test data, respectively.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS2009

Probalistic Models for Solar Particle Events

Probabilistic Models of Solar Particle Events (SPEs) are used in space mission design studies to describe the radiation environment that can be expected at a specified confidence level. The task of the designer is then to choose a design that will operate in the model radiation environment. Probabilistic models have already been developed for solar proton events that describe the peak flux, event-integrated fluence and missionintegrated fluence. In addition a probabilistic model has been developed that describes the mission-integrated fluence for the Z>2 elemental spectra. This talk will focus on completing this suite of models by developing models for peak flux and event-integrated fluence elemental spectra for the Z>2 element

Adams, James H., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Model of Rapid Radicalization Behavior Using Agent-Based Modeling and Quorum Sensing

Understanding the dynamics of radicalization, especially rapid radicalization, has become increasingly important to US policy in the past several years. Traditionally, radicalization is considered a slow process, but recent social and political events demonstrate that the process can occur quickly. Examining this rapid process, in real time, is impossible. However, recreating an event using modeling and simulation (M&S) allows researchers to study some of the complex dynamics associated with rapid radicalization. We propose to adapt the biological mechanism of quorum sensing as a tool to explore, or possibly explain, rapid radicalization. Due to the complex nature of quorum sensing, M&S allows us to examine events that we could not otherwise examine in real time. For this study, we employ Agent Based Modeling (ABM), an M&S paradigm suited to modeling group behavior. The result of this study was the successful creation of rapid radicalization using quorum sensing. The Battle of Mogadishu was the inspiration for this model and provided the testing conditions used to explore quorum sensing and the ideas behind rapid radicalization. The final product has wider applicability however, using quorum sensing as a possible tool for examining other catalytic rapid radicalization events.

Schwartz, Noah↗
DOE OSTI2021

Digital Biosurveillance for Zoonotic Disease Detection in Kenya

Infectious disease surveillance is crucial for early detection and situational awareness of disease outbreaks. Digital biosurveillance monitors large volumes of open-source data to flag potential health threats. This study investigates the potential of digital surveillance in the detection of the top five priority zoonotic diseases in Kenya: Rift Valley fever (RVF), anthrax, rabies, brucellosis, and trypanosomiasis. Open-source disease events reported between August 2016 and October 2020 were collected and key event-specific information was extracted using a newly developed disease event taxonomy. A total of 424 disease reports encompassing 55 unique events belonging to anthrax (43.6%), RVF (34.6%), and rabies (21.8%) were identified. Most events were first reported by news media (78.2%) followed by international health organizations (16.4%). News media reported the events 4.1 (±4.7) days faster than the official reports. There was a positive association between official reporting and RVF events (odds ratio (OR) 195.5, 95% confidence interval (CI); 24.01–4756.43, p < 0.001) and a negative association between official reporting and local media coverage of events (OR 0.03, 95% CI; 0.00–0.17, p = 0.030). This study highlights the usefulness of local news in the detection of potentially neglected zoonotic disease events and the importance of digital biosurveillance in resource-limited settings.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Earth Observation from Space - The Issue of Environmental Sustainability

Remote sensing scientists work under assumptions that should not be taken for granted and should, therefore, be challenged. These assumptions include the following: 1. Space, especially Low Earth Orbit (LEO), will always be available to governmental and commercial space entities that launch Earth remote sensing missions. 2. Space launches are benign with respect to environmental impacts. 3. Minimization of Type 1 error, which provides increased confidence in the experimental outcome, is the best way to assess the significance of environmental change. 4. Large-area remote sensing investigations, i.e. national, continental, global studies, are best done from space. 5. National space missions should trump international, cooperative space missions to ensure national control and distribution of the data products. At best, all of these points are arguable, and in some cases, they're wrong. Development of observational space systems that are compatible with sustainability principles should be a primary concern when Earth remote sensing space systems are envisioned, designed, and launched. The discussion is based on the hypothesis that reducing the environmental impacts of thedata acquisition step,which is at the very beginning of the information streamleading to decision and action, will enhance coherence in the information streamand strengthen the capacity of measurement processes to meet their stated functional goal, i.e. sustainable management of Earth resources. We suggest that unconventional points of view should be adopted and when appropriate, remedial measures considered that could help to reduce the environmental footprint of space remote sensing and of Earth observation and monitoring systems in general. This article discusses these five assumptions inthe contextof sustainablemanagementof Earth's resources. Takingeachassumptioninturn,we find the following: (1) Space debris may limit access to Low Earth Orbit over the next decades. (2) Relatively speaking, given that they're rare event, space launches may be benign, but study is merited on upper stratospheric and exospheric layers given the chemical activity associated with rocket combustion by-products. (3) Minimization of Type II error should be considered in situations where minimization of Type I error greatly hampers or precludes our ability to correct the environmental condition being studied. (4) In certain situations, airborne collects may be less expensive and more environmentally benign, and comparative studies should be done to determine which path is wisest. (5) International cooperation and data sharing will reduce instrument and launch costs and mission redundancy. Given fiscal concerns of most of the major space agencies e e.g. NASA, ESA, CNES e it seems prudent to combine resources.

Earth observation systems↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the attribution of the impacts of extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change

Investigations into the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme weather events are now starting to extend into analysis of anthropogenic impacts on non-climate (e.g. socio-economic) systems. However, care needs to be taken when making this extension, because methodological choices regarding extreme weather attribution can become crucial when considering the events’ impacts. The fraction of attributable risk (FAR) method, useful in extreme weather attribution research, has a very specific interpretation concerning a class of events, and there is potential to misinterpret results from weather event analyses as being applicable to specific events and their impact outcomes. Using two case studies of meteorological extremes and their impacts, we argue that FAR is not generally appropriate when estimating the magnitude of the anthropogenic signal behind a specific impact. Attribution assessments on impacts should always be carried out in addition to assessment of the associated meteorological event, since it cannot be assumed that the anthropogenic signal behind the weather is equivalent to the signal behind the impact because of lags and nonlinearities in the processes through which the impact system reacts to weather. Whilst there are situations where employing FAR to understand the climate change signal behind a class of impacts is useful (e.g. ‘system breaking’ events), more useful results will generally be produced if attribution questions on specific impacts are reframed to focus on changes in the impact return value and magnitude across large samples of factual and counterfactual climate model and impact simulations. We advocate for constant interdisciplinary collaboration as essential for effective and robust impact attribution assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A two-stage optical fusion framework for wildfire severity mapping across the conterminous United States

Accurate wildfire severity mapping (WSM) is essential for post-fire recovery planning, erosion risk assessment, ecosystem monitoring, and disaster risk reduction. Although Landsat and Sentinel optical imagery have been widely used for burn severity assessment, the added value of fusing multiple optical sensors has not been sufficiently quantified across diverse fire events, particularly since the launch of Landsat-9. This study evaluates whether multisensor optical fusion improves wildfire severity mapping relative to single-sensor baselines using Sentinel-2, Landsat-8, and Landsat-9 imagery across 40 wildfire events in the conterminous United States. We tested a two-stage fusion framework that combines feature-level fusion with pixel-level dimensionality reduction. First, feature-level fused datasets were created through early fusion by combining standardized post-fire bands from each sensor into a single predictor stack. Both raw reflectance bands and pairwise spectral transforms were retained to capture within- and cross-sensor spectral interactions. Second, Linear Discriminant Analysis was applied to both single-sensor and fused datasets to produce comparable low-dimensional feature spaces. Six machine-learning classifiers were then used to benchmark model performance with repeated spatially buffered train–test splits. Results show that Landsat-9 was the strongest single-sensor baseline. Among the fusion strategies, Sentinel-2 + Landsat-9 produced the most consistent improvement and reduced performance variability. Landscape-condition analysis further showed that this fusion was most beneficial in shrubland-dominated and high-terrain fires, where it achieved the highest overall mean accuracy and the fewest failures. In contrast, its benefits were less reliable in evergreen forests, mixed vegetation, and low- to moderate-elevation terrain. In operational settings, the Sentinel-2 + Landsat-9 configuration offers a practical solution for post-fire recovery planning, erosion-risk assessment, watershed management, and ecological monitoring when field observations are available and timely satellite-based information is needed.

Landsat↗
DOE OSTI2023

SEEMS: A Single Event Effects and Muon Spectroscopy facility at the Spallation Neutron Source

This study outlines a concept that would leverage the existing proton accelerator at the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) of Oak Ridge National Laboratory to enable transformative science via one world-class facility serving two missions: Single Event Effects (SEE) and Muon Spectroscopy (μSR). The μSR portion would deliver the world’s highest flux and highest resolution pulsed muon beams for material characterization purposes, with precision and capabilities well beyond comparable facilities. The SEE capabilities deliver neutron, proton, and muon beams for aerospace industries that are facing an impending challenge to certify equipment for safe and reliable behavior under bombardment from atmospheric radiation originating from cosmic and solar rays. With negligible impact on the primary neutron scattering mission of the SNS, the proposed facility will have enormous benefits for both science and industry. Herein, we have designated this facility “SEEMS.”

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Classification of Dissolution Events Using Fusion of Effluents Measurements and Classifiers

Classifiers for dissolution events at a radiochemical processing facility are studied using gamma spectra measurements of effluents collected by a high purity germanium detector located at its off-gas stack. Data sets collected at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Radiochemical Engineering Development Center under a Pu dissolution campaign spanning a three months period are utilized. Features corresponding to the activity levels of 15 radionuclides, including isotopes of iodine, krypton, and xenon, that are indicated by the target decay chains, are computed from the spectra at 1 hour intervals. A conceptualization diagram is developed to reflect the steps from the source to measurement to feature computation that depend on fission products indicated by decay chains, chemical processing, and effluents transport to the off-gas stack. A diverse set of eight classifiers based on different design principles are trained using the ground truth data for this campaign, and the outputs of top three classifiers, namely, classification trees, Ensemble of Trees (EOT), and k-nearest neighbor, are combined using EOT classifier-fuser. Our results show that for 5-fold cross validation, features associated with isotopes of xenon provide the lowest classification error among the different elements across the classifiers; the classification error is furthered improved when all 15 isotope features are used by each classifier, and it is again improved by the fusion of three classifiers. Further reduction in classification error is achieved by using a measurement window of 1-2 days which is identified based on half-life time estimates of the isotopes; it is long enough for the stabilization of feature estimates while being short enough not to be affected by the follow on dissolution events. As a net result of feature and classifier fusion, combined with the incorporation of decay chain and isotope half-life information, this approach achieves 98% detection rate while maintaining a false alarm rate under 2% for this data set.

Rao, Nageswara↗
DOE OSTI2026

Explanation of the seasonal variation of cosmic multiple muon events observed with the NOvA Near Detector

The flux of cosmic ray muons at the Earth’s surface exhibits seasonal variations due to changes in the temperature of the atmosphere affecting the production and decay of mesons in the upper atmosphere. Using 1473 live days of data collected by the NuMI Off-axis 𝜈 𝑒 Appearance (NOvA) Near Detector during 2018–2022, we studied the seasonal pattern in the multiple-muon event rate. The data confirm an anticorrelation between the multiple-muon event rate and effective atmospheric temperature, consistent across all the years of data. Previous analyses from MINOS and NOvA saw a similar anticorrelation but did not include an explanation. We find that this anticorrelation is driven by altitude–geometry effects as the average muon production height changes with the season. This has been studied with a CORSIKA cosmic ray simulation package by varying atmospheric parameters, and provides an explanation to a longstanding discrepancy between the seasonal phases of single and multiple-muon events.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗