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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

Autonomous nondestructive evaluation of resistance spot welded joints

The application of non-destructive evaluation approaches has attracted strong interests in modern automotive industries. Here, we present an autonomous deep-computing framework to analyze raw videos from infrared systems and to predict weld nugget shape and size with unprecedented accuracy and speed. In a comprehensive training and testing experiment with 90 videos (seven sets of welding material stack-ups), a new method was developed to assemble sufficient datasets for neural network training. Our framework successfully predicts all the nugget shapes with F1 scores that range from 0.84 to 0.92. The total training time on Nvidia DGX station takes less than 10 min for each set of welding material stack-up. The real inference time of an individual dataset (with 30 video frames) takes about 0.005 s. The procedure and methods developed in the study can be applied to other image-based weld property prediction, as well as other manufacturing processes. Furthermore, our well-trained neural networks take limited memory resources (2.3 MB) and are suitable for embedded microprocessors for in-situ welding quality control as edge computing within an intelligent welding framework.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Downscaled CMIP5 projections of physical fire risk understate historical trends

Reliable projections of wildfire risk are important for multi-sector impacts analysis. Statistically downscaled and bias-corrected Earth system model ensemble products are routinely used to analyze regional physical wildfire risk, but evaluations of historical observed trends and variability are lacking. Here, we evaluate physical fire risk over the western United States using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) by comparing model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), statistically downscaled via the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) approach, against the observational target dataset gridMET, a gridded high-resolution surface meteorological product. We analyze multidecadal trends and interannual variability in seasonal average FWI for the historical period and future projections under two emissions scenarios, and we compare MACA-CMIP5 ensemble results with a simple time series model that generates historical and future projections of seasonal FWI based on bootstrapping observed historical trends and variability. Our findings indicate that MACA-CMIP5 accurately captures the magnitude and spatial patterns of seasonally averaged FWI but tends to underestimate historical decadal trends. We show that future increases in fire risk may be underestimated relative to the simple time series model that projects historical variability into the future. We also highlight that model biases in relative humidity contribute significantly to model-data differences. Our results underscore the importance of historical hindcasting exercises for informing broader multi-sector applications.

FWI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Can the GPM IMERG Final Product Accurately Represent MCSs’ Precipitation Characteristics over the Central and Eastern United States?

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) play an important role in water and energy cycles as they produce heavy rainfall and modify the radiative profile in the tropics and midlatitudes. An accurate representation of MCSs’ rainfall is therefore crucial in understanding their impact on the climate system. The V06B Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals from Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) half-hourly precipitation final product is a useful tool to study the precipitation characteristics of MCSs because of its global coverage and fine spatiotemporal resolutions. However, errors and uncertainties in IMERG should be quantified before applying it to hydrology and climate applications. This study evaluates IMERG performance on capturing and detecting MCSs’ precipitation in the central and eastern United States during a 3-yr study period against the radar-based Stage IV product. The tracked MCSs are divided into four seasons and are analyzed separately for both datasets. IMERG shows a wet bias in total precipitation but a dry bias in hourly mean precipitation during all seasons due to the false classification of nonprecipitating pixels as precipitating. These false alarm events are possibly caused by evaporation under the cloud base or the misrepresentation of MCS cold anvil regions as precipitating clouds by the algorithm. IMERG agrees reasonably well with Stage IV in terms of the seasonal spatial distribution and diurnal cycle of MCSs precipitation. A relative humidity (RH)-based correction has been applied to the IMERG precipitation product, which helps reduce the number of false alarm pixels and improves the overall performance of IMERG with respect to Stage IV.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

The U.S. Agrivoltaic Shading Tool: A National-Scale Interface for Modeling Light and Shade Patterns in Ten Common Agrivoltaic Configurations

Agrivoltaic systems are dual-use configurations that co-locate agriculture and photovoltaic (PV) infrastructure and require careful design to balance crop performance and energy generation. A critical element of agrivoltaic design is the spatial and temporal distribution of irradiance and shade within and around PV arrays. To support research, planning, and stakeholder decision-making, we introduce the U.S. Agrivoltaic Shading Tool, a novel web-based application that delivers high-resolution irradiance and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) modeling for ten standardized PV configurations across the conterminous United States. The tool leverages the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) System Advisor Model (SAM) to perform detailed irradiance simulations, using meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). Outputs include seasonal, monthly, weekly, and diurnal patterns of available sunlight, amount of shade, irradiance, and PAR at ground level within agrivoltaic system footprints. For a user's selected location, these results are visualized through interactive visualizations, heatmaps, and time-series plots, designed to be accessible to both technical and non-technical users. In addition to facilitating rapid spatial exploration of agrivoltaic light environments, the tool will offer seamless integration with the InSPIRE Agrivoltaics Design and Analysis Model (ADAM). This optional workflow will allow users to port selected site and configuration parameters into a more advanced modeling environment for further customization of structural layouts, crop-system compatibility, power generation, and technoeconomic performance. Finally, to promote open science, the entire dataset will be hosted and available for open access through the OpenEI platform. By standardizing and disseminating high-quality irradiance data and design tools, the U.S. Agrivoltaic Shading Tool supports a wide range of users, including researchers, landowners, energy developers, and policymakers, in evaluating the agronomic and energetic feasibility of agrivoltaic systems across the United States.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Omics-Lethal Human Viruses, MERS-CoV Experiment MFB002

The purpose of this experiment was to evaluate the human host response to wild-type Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (icMERS-CoV, EMC2012) and mutant virus infection. Sample data was obtained from primary human fibroblasts for mRNA, miRNA, proteomics, lipidomics, and metabolomics expression analysis. Secondary host-associated viral dataset downloads contain one or more statistically processed (normalization data transformation) quantitative dataset collections resulting in qualitative expression analyses of primary host-pathogen experimental study designs. Leveraging unique high-resolution Omics capabilities for proteomics, metabolomics, lipidomics, and transcriptomics dataset downloads each have a direct relationship to a primary sample submission corresponding to a specific MERS-CoV virus infection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Antarctic ice sheet model comparison with uncurated geological constraints shows that higher spatial resolution improves deglacial reconstructions

Accurately reconstructing past changes to the shape and volume of the Antarctic ice sheet relies on the use of physically based and thus internally consistent ice sheet modeling, benchmarked against spatially limited geologic data. The challenge in model benchmarking against geologic data is diagnosing whether model-data misfits are the result of an inadequate model, inherently noisy or biased geologic data, and/or incorrect association between modeled quantities and geologic observations. In this work we address this challenge by (i) the development and use of a new model-data evaluation framework applied to an uncurated data set of geologic constraints, and (ii) nested high-spatial-resolution modeling designed to test the hypothesis that model resolution is an important limitation in matching geologic data. While previous approaches to model benchmarking employed highly curated datasets, our approach applies an automated screening and quality control algorithm to an uncurated public dataset of geochronological observations (specifically, cosmogenic-nuclide exposure-age measurements from glacial deposits in ice-free areas). This optimizes data utilization by including more geological constraints, reduces potential interpretive bias, and allows unsupervised assimilation of new data as they are collected. We also incorporate a nested model framework in which high-resolution domains are downscaled from a continent-wide ice sheet model. We highlight the application of this framework by applying these methods to a small ensemble of deglacial ice-sheet model simulations, and demonstrate that the nested approach improves the ability of model simulations to match exposure age data collected from areas of complex topography and ice flow. We develop a range of diagnostic model-data comparison metrics to provide more insight into model performance than possible from a single-valued misfit statistic, showing that different metrics capture different aspects of ice sheet deflation.

Geosciences↗

NASA NTRS2002

Simulating Snow Over Sea Ice In Climate Models

We have evaluated two methods of simulating the seasonal cycle of snow over sea ice in and around the Arctic: The NCAR global climate model CCM3, with its standard snow hydrology, and the snow pack model SNTHERM, forced with hourly atmospheric output from CCM3. A new dataset providing dates for the onset of snow melt over Arctic sea ice provides a means for assessing basin-wide how well the models simulate melt onset, but contains no information on how long it then takes for all the snow to melt. Use of data from the SHEBA site provides very detailed information on the behavior of the snow before and during the melt season, but only for a very limited area. Russian drift data provide climatological data on the seasonal cycle of snow water equivalent and snow density, over multi-year sea ice in the central Arctic basin. These datasets are used to compare the two modeling methods, and to see if use of the more physically-realistic SNTHERM provides any significant improvements. Conclusions obtained so far include: 1. Both CCM3 and CCM3/SNTHERM do a good job overall of matching the onset of snow melt dataset; although CCM3/SNTHERM consistently trends to underestimate the date and CCM3 to overestimate it. 2. SHEBA and ice drift data for the Arctic show that CCM3/ SNTHERM does a better job than CCM3 at simulating the total melt period. 3. Ice drift snow density and accumulation data suggest that while providing superior results, CCM3/SNTHERM may still suffer from overly vigorous melting. 4. Both the large-scale atmospheric forcing and snow pack physical processes are important in proper simulation of the snow seasonal cycle. Ongoing work includes further diagnosis of CCM3/SNTHERM, use of more observational datasets, especially from marginal seas in the pan-Arctic, and full coupling of SNTHERM into CCM3 (work to date has all been off-line simulations).

Arnold, James E.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Characterization of Days Based On Analysis of National Airspace System Performance Metrics

Days of operations in the National Airspace System can be described in term of traffic demand, runway conditions, equipment outages, and surface and enroute weather conditions. These causes manifest themselves in terms of departure delays, arrival delays, enroute delays and traffic flow management delays, Traffic flow management initiatives such as, ground stops, ground delay programs, miles-in-trail restrictions, rerouting and airborne holding are imposed to balance the air traffic demand with respect to the available capacity, In order to maintain operational efficiency of the National Airspace System, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) maintains delay sad other statistics in the Air Traffic Operations Network (OPSNET) and the Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) databases. OPSNET data includes reportable delays of fifteen minutes ox more experienced by Instrument Flight Rule (IFR) flights. Numbers of aircraft affected by departure delays, enroute delays, arrival delays and traffic flow delays are recorded in the OPSNET data. ASPM data consist of number of actual departures, number of canceled departures, percentage of on time departures, percentage of on time gate arrivals, taxi-out delays. taxi-in delays, gate delays, arrival delays and block delays. Surface conditions at the major U.S. airports are classified in terms of Instrument Meteorological Condition (IMC) and Visual Meteorological Condition (VMC) as a function of the time of the day in the ASPM data. The main objective of this paper is to use OPSNET and ASPM data to classify the days in the datasets into few distinct groups, where each group is separated from the other groups in terms of a distance metric. The motivations for classifying the days are two-fold, 1) to enable selection of days of traffic with particular operational characteristics for concept evaluation using system-wide simulation systems such as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Airspace Concepts Evaluation Tool (ACES) and 2) to enable evaluation of a given day with respect to the characteristics of the classified groups. The first part of the paper is devoted to the analysis of major trends seen in the OPSNET and ASPM data. The second part of the paper is devoted to describing features or measures derived from the OPSNET and ASPM data that are suitable for characterizing days, and the classification algorithm used for grouping the days. Finally, the method for evaluating the characteristics of a given day with respect to the properties of the groups is described.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Results from On-Board CSA-CP and CDM Sensor Readings During the Burning and Suppression of Solids II (BASS-II) Experiment in the Microgravity Science Glovebox (MSG)

For the first time on ISS, BASS-II utilized MSG working volume dilution with gaseous nitrogen (N2). We developed a perfectly stirred reactor model to determine the N2 flow time and flow rate to obtain the desired reduced oxygen concentration in the working volume for each test. We calibrated the model with CSA-CP oxygen readings offset using the Mass Constituents Analyzer reading of the ISS ambient atmosphere data for that day. This worked out extremely well for operations, and added a new vital variable, ambient oxygen level, to our test matrices. The main variables tested in BASS-II were ambient oxygen concentration, ventilation flow velocity, and fuel type, thickness, and geometry. BASS-II also utilized the on-board CSA-CP for oxygen and carbon monoxide readings, and the CDM for carbon dioxide readings before and after each test. Readings from these sensors allow us to evaluate the completeness of the combustion. The oxygen and carbon dioxide readings before and after each test were analyzed and compared very well to stoichiometric ratios for a one step gas-phase reaction. The CO versus CO2 followed a linear trend for some datasets, but not for all the different geometries of fuel and flow tested. Lastly, we calculated the heat release rates during each test from the oxygen consumption and burn times, using the constant 13.1 kJ of heat released per gram of oxygen consumed. The results showed that the majority of the tests had heat release rates well below 100 Watts.

combustion products↗

NASA NTRS2020

Ensemble PM2.5 Forecasting during the 2018 Camp Fire Event Using the HYSPLIT Transport and Dispersion Model

Biomass burning releases a vast amount of aerosols into the atmosphere, often leading to severe air quality and health problems. Prediction of the air quality effects from biomass burning emissions is challenging due to uncertainties in fire emission, plume rise calculation, and other model inputs/processes. Ensemble forecasting is increasingly used to represent model uncertainties. In this paper, an ensemble forecast was conducted to predict surface PM2.5 during the 2018 California Camp Fire event using the NOAA HYSPLIT dispersion model at 0.1- degree horizontal resolution. Different combinations of four satellite-based fire emission datasets (FEER, FLAMBE, GBBEPx and GFAS), two plume rise schemes (Briggs and Sofiev), various meteorology inputs and model setup options were used to create the forecast ensemble, for a total of 112 experiments. The performance of each ensemble member and the ensemble mean were evaluated using ground-based observations, with four statistical metrics and an overall rank. The ensemble spread of the 112 members reached 1000 μg/m3, highlighting the large uncertainty in wildfire forecast. The ensemble mean displayed the best performance. Each fire emission product contributed to one or more members among the top ten performers, revealing the forecasting dependence on both the quality of fire emissions data and model representation of emission, transport and removal processes. In addition, an ensemble size reduction technique was introduced. With the help of this technique, the ensemble size was reduced from 112 to 28 members and still produced an ensemble mean that yielded comparable or even better performance to that of the full ensemble.

Biomass Burning↗

NASA NTRS2021

Burning and Suppression of Solids–II (BASS-II) Summary Report

The Burning and Suppression of Solids (BASS) experiment hardware is a small flow duct that provides containment for small scale burning of solid samples within the Microgravity Science Glovebox (MSG) aboard the International Space Station (ISS). A video camera with a data overlay and a 35-mm still camera record the combustion events. The controls (ignition, fan speed, etc.) are operated by an astronaut while the principal investigator team monitors the experiment from the ground and communicates directly with the astronaut. For the first time on ISS, BASS–II utilized MSG working volume dilution with gaseous N2. We developed a perfectly stirred reactor model to determine the N2 flow time and flow rate to obtain the desired reduced O2 concentration in the working volume for each test. We calibrated the model with the Compound Specific Analyzer-Combustion Products (CSA-CP) O2 readings offset using the Major Constituents Analyzer reading of the ISS ambient atmosphere data for that day. This worked out extremely well for operations, and added a new vital variable, ambient O2 level, to our test matrices. The main variables tested in BASS–II were ambient O2 concentration, ventilation flow velocity, and fuel type, thickness, and geometry. BASS–II also utilized the onboard CSA-CP for O2 and CO readings, and the Carbon Dioxide Monitor for CO2 readings before and after each test. Readings from these sensors allow us to evaluate the completeness of the combustion. The O2 and CO2 readings before and after each test were analyzed and compared very well to stoichiometric ratios for a one-step gas-phase reaction. The CO versus CO2 followed a linear trend for some datasets, but not for all the different geometries of fuel and flow tested. We calculated the heat release rates during each test from the O2 consumption and burn times, using the constant 13.1 kJ of heat released per gram of O2 consumed. The results showed that most of the tests had heat release rates well below 100 W. Lastly, the global equivalence ratio for the tests is estimated to be fuel rich, 1.3 on average using mass loss and O2 consumption data.

Microgravity↗

NASA NTRS2021

Maya Forest Water Resources II: Mapping Inundation Below the Forest Canopy in the Maya Tri-National Forest

To monitor seasonal flooding within the tri-National Maya Forest the team completed the methodology started by the Summer 2021 term to analyze changes in inundation dynamic throughout 2017. The team analyzed inundation dynamics in Google Earth Engine (GEE) using Earth observation products from the Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) 2, and International Space Station (ISS) Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation LiDAR (GEDI). The team improved the landcover classification using the Random Forest algorithm in GEE by adding canopy height data derived from GEDI, elevation and slope data from Copernicus, and additional multi-spectral band ratios from Landsat 8. The pixel-based land cover classification produced an overall accuracy of 88%. Experiments measuring inundation extent using L-band SAR included comparing results with a priori knowledge, topography datasets, and auxiliary datasets. We iteratively tested and found threshold values for identifying forested inundation using the ratio for HH divided by HV. The resulting methodology and products helped end users from Belize’s Land Information Center (LIC) and Forest Department, Guatemala’s Center for Monitoring and Evaluation (CEMEC), and Mexico’s El Colegio de la Frontera Sur (ECOSUR) manage land and water resources and protect communities.

Stephanie Jiménez↗

NASA NTRS2024

Assessments of Physiology and Cognition in Hybrid-Reality Environments (APACHE) – A VR “Sandbox” for Planetary Spacewalk Research

Human Performance↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessments of Physiology and Cognition in Hybrid-Reality Environments (APACHE)

NASA is planning to return to the Moon in the mid-2020s as a stepping stone to Mars missions in the 2030s. Spacewalks, or extravehicular activities (EVAs), performed on the Moon and Mars will differ in a variety of ways from those that have been performed in decades past. NASA has identified multiple risks to human health and performance associated with a crewed mission to Mars, especially those associated with exploration EVAs which are expected to be a primary mission activity. Crew may be expected to conduct up to 24 hours of EVA per person per week, where the likelihood of injury and/or mental mistakes are increased compared to ground-based training or current microgravity EVAs and the consequences of which can be catastrophic. Current test environments for exploration EVA research and technology development are large, costly facilities that are limited in their availability or capabilities. Spacesuit testing in a reduced gravity environment such as NASA’s Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory, while a good representation of the crew’s physical workload during exploration EVAs, typically has small datasets and is difficult to integrate physiological sensors or other types of crew performance measures. Meanwhile, scientific field-based testing such as NASA’s Desert Research and Technology Studies offers an operationally relevant environment for exploration EVAs, particularly for cognitive workload, but is also limited by small datasets, lack of a pressurized spacesuit, and obtrusive measures. The limitations of current analogs for exploration EVAs identify a need for a new test environment that can approximate both the physical and cognitive demands associated with exploration EVAs to enable rapid, controlled, and repeatable evaluations of human health and performance risks of exploration missions. In response, the Human Physiology, Performance, Protection, and Operations Laboratory (H-3PO) at NASA Johnson Space Center has developed a hybrid reality exploration EVA analog named the Assessments of Physiology And Cognition in Hybrid-reality Environments (APACHE) to address these limitations using a combination of virtual, physical, and hybrid reality techniques. The APACHE facility resides at NASA Johnson Space Center and serves as a large “sandbox” for EVA research and simulation. At its center is a roughly 15x20ft space surrounded by a 14” tall sandbox partially filled with lunar regolith simulant to emulate the physical feeling of walking on a planetary surface and to allow for simulated geology operations. Nearby, a curved passive treadmill (Skillmill Connect, Technogym, Fairfield, NJ) and an omnidirectional treadmill (Infinadeck, Infinadeck, Rocklin, CA) are included to enable exploration of these large virtual environments while also imposing the physical demands, representative timelines, and cognitive burdens required to navigate and traverse these distances during exploration EVA. A 6DOF motion platform is used to simulate rover operations and supports various human performance evaluations and associated risks. Lastly, APACHE can support two extravehicular (EV) crewmembers working in tandem. A computer workstation is located nearby and also supports an intravehicular (IV) crewmember as part of a full mission simulation. The IV crewmember has direct video and audio communication with the EV crew in VR to provide operational and procedural support. The software used in APACHE was created by the JSC Engineering Directorate, in partnership with Buendea, powered by a custom Unreal Engine 5 (UE5.3, Epic Games) project. APACHE currently utilizes the HTC Vive Pro Eye in a wireless configuration for VR simulations. There are two virtual environments that subjects can explore within APACHE, a Lunar and Martian surface. The virtual Lunar surface was created from LIDAR data of the Lunar South Pole to create roughly 16 sq km of explorable terrain. The virtual Martian surface contains roughly 400 sq km of explorable terrain derived from Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter LIDAR data of the Jezero Crater. The immersion and related cognitive burdens of conducting a planetary EVA is simulated through a series of EVA-relevant tasks performed in the VR environment, using these high-fidelity visual representations. Additionally, APACHE includes biosensor driven informatics, such as real-time heart rate monitoring and/or derived values from model simulations, for active monitoring by the EV crew and added cognitive demand. A “Wizard of Oz” control panel enables test operators to activate contingency events such as simulated spacesuit malfunctions, loss of communications, and/or limited visibility. Embedded performance measures such as accuracy, completeness, and execution time have been developed for various exploration tasks to objectively quantify crew performance during an EVA and compare impacts to performance when different environmental stressors, both physical and cognitive, are added to or removed from the simulation. Additionally, validated cognitive and operational performance measures such as the Digit Symbol Substitution Task have been recreated and embedded in VR for direct and relatively unobtrusive measurement of motor perception. The APACHE environment currently supports multiple research studies at NASA. Examples include the CHAPEA project, a series of simulated year-long missions on Mars by a 4-person crew; and the CO2 Contingency Walk Back Study, an investigation of elevated CO2 exposure on crew performance during a contingency EVA scenario. APACHE also provides a test environment to support the development of the Crew State and Risk Model, which is a collection of individualized, mathematical models of crew physical and cognitive state; and the Personalized EVA Informatics and Decision Support system, an operational tool for flight controllers, and eventually a self-reliant Martian crew, to make biomedically-informed decisions in real-time to optimize the EVA planning and execution with respect to crew health and performance. Some technical challenges associated with developing the APACHE environment, as well as current limitations, include VR limitless natural walking with a hybrid spacesuit simulator, optimizing performance for wireless PC VR streaming while maintaining a high degree of visual fidelity, and the integration of various physiological (metabolic masks) and psychometric (eye tracking) sensors with the VR headset.

Human Performance↗

NASA NTRS2012

Newly Released TRMM Version 7 Products, Other Precipitation Datasets and Data Services at NASA GES DISC

The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) is home of global precipitation product archives, in particular, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) products. TRMM is a joint U.S.-Japan satellite mission to monitor tropical and subtropical (40 S - 40 N) precipitation and to estimate its associated latent heating. The TRMM satellite provides the first detailed and comprehensive dataset on the four dimensional distribution of rainfall and latent heating over vastly undersampled tropical and subtropical oceans and continents. The TRMM satellite was launched on November 27, 1997. TRMM data products are archived at and distributed by GES DISC. The newly released TRMM Version 7 consists of several changes including new parameters, new products, meta data, data structures, etc. For example, hydrometeor profiles in 2A12 now have 28 layers (14 in V6). New parameters have been added to several popular Level-3 products, such as, 3B42, 3B43. Version 2.2 of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) dataset has been added to the TRMM Online Visualization and Analysis System (TOVAS; URL: http://disc2.nascom.nasa.gov/Giovanni/tovas/), allowing online analysis and visualization without downloading data and software. The GPCP dataset extends back to 1979. Version 3 of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) monitoring product has been updated in TOVAS as well. The product provides global gauge-based monthly rainfall along with number of gauges per grid. The dataset begins in January 1986. To facilitate data and information access and support precipitation research and applications, we have developed a Precipitation Data and Information Services Center (PDISC; URL: http://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/precipitation). In addition to TRMM, PDISC provides current and past observational precipitation data. Users can access precipitation data archives consisting of both remote sensing and in-situ observations. Users can use these data products to conduct a wide variety of activities, including case studies, model evaluation, uncertainty investigation, etc. To support Earth science applications, PDISC provides users near-real-time precipitation products over the Internet. At PDISC, users can access tools and software. Documentation, FAQ and assistance are also available. Other capabilities include: 1) Mirador (http://mirador.gsfc.nasa.gov/), a simplified interface for searching, browsing, and ordering Earth science data at NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). Mirador is designed to be fast and easy to learn; 2)TOVAS; 3) NetCDF data download for the GIS community; 4) Data via OPeNDAP (http://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/services/opendap/). The OPeNDAP provides remote access to individual variables within datasets in a form usable by many tools, such as IDV, McIDAS-V, Panoply, Ferret and GrADS; 5) The Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Web Map Service (WMS) (http://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/services/wxs_ogc.shtml). The WMS is an interface that allows the use of data and enables clients to build customized maps with data coming from a different network.

Liu, Zhong↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the Accuracy of Machine Learning Forecasts

To improve the accuracy of forecasting in machine learning, we must investigate multiple machine learning models and see how accurately they can predict values after training. We used seven machine learning models to try and get more accurate predictions. The models that were used were ARIMA, SES, MLP, CART, LightGBM, and XGBoost. We used a processed dataset from a Terminal at LAX that had the number of people traveling through terminal X every hour in March from 2015-2019. We trained our models with the dates March 6 - March 19 to predict the value for March 20th and the hours 6:00 am to 6:00 pm since those are the most popular traveling hours. By using the different models, we had varying results of accuracy when estimating the amount of people traveling through terminal X on March 20th. We know that machine learning models are helpful for forecasting and by seeing how accurately these models can predict, we can see how forecasting can be helpful for other issues. Using these methods, airports can use forecasting to predict the amount of people coming in and out and can use these predictions to prepare their resource management, operational efficiency, and overall passenger experience.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Guideline for Characterizing and Evaluating a Candidate Project Site for Solar Thermal Applications

This document presents a structured procedure for characterizing and evaluating candidate project sites for concentrating solar power (CSP) and solar heat for industrial processes (SHIP) applications. The objective is to provide project developers, researchers, and other stakeholders with a consistent, technology-agnostic framework for early-stage site assessment, enabling informed decision-making prior to significant investment in project development. Site selection is a critical factor in project success or failure for both CSP and SHIP projects. Key factors such as solar resource availability, land characteristics, environmental and regulatory constraints, infrastructure availability, and community context are determined by the choice of project site and can materially impact project performance, cost, schedule, and overall viability. This procedure is designed to systematically evaluate these factors, identify potential fatal flaws, and prioritize the most favorable candidate sites for further development. The process begins with rapid screening-level evaluation, using publicly available data to assess solar resource, land availability and suitability, zoning and land-use compatibility, and exclusion zones such as protected lands or sensitive habitats. Sites that meet the minimum screening criteria advance to a more detailed characterization. Subsequent sections of this report provide guidance for a next-level assessment of the most important technical and environmental parameters, including: 1) Solar resource quality, variability, and uncertainty using multiyear datasets and, where appropriate, on-site measurement campaigns; 2) Meteorological conditions such as wind, temperature, extreme weather events, and soiling impacts; 3) Land characteristics including slope, shading, and geotechnical conditions; and 4) Environmental and regulatory considerations, including permitting processes, endangered species, cultural resources, and visual impacts. The procedure also addresses infrastructure and integration considerations, including: 1) Grid interconnection requirements for CSP power generation projects; 2) Electrical and operational integration for SHIP facilities; 3) Water availability, quality, and permitting constraints, which are particularly critical for CSP in arid regions; and 4) Site access, construction logistics, and availability of workforce and supporting services. Recognizing the importance of social and economic context, the procedure includes evaluation of community engagement factors, such as stakeholder sentiment, proximity to sensitive visual receptors, workforce development opportunities, and local economic incentives. The outputs of these assessments are synthesized in a cost and risk evaluation, translating site characteristics into expected impacts on capital cost, operating cost, schedule, and technical risk. This is complemented by screening-level performance modeling, including 8760 simulations and long-term projections, to quantify expected energy or thermal output, assess variability thereof, and support comparison between candidate sites. Finally, the procedure provides high-level guidance on a structured go/no-go decision framework, categorizing sites based on identified risks and constraints, and outlining a clear path forward to feasibility studies and front-end engineering design for viable projects. By standardizing the site characterization process across both CSP and SHIP applications, this guideline aims to: 1) Improve consistency and transparency in early-stage project evaluation; 2) Reduce development risk and avoid investment in nonviable project sites; 3) Support collaboration between developers, researchers, and public agencies; and 4) Accelerate successful deployment of concentrating solar technologies for both power generation and industrial process heat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data-based filtered dissipation rate modelling for multi-modal turbulent combustion: evaluating a priori model generalizability

Manifold-based models offer a computationally efficient alternative to directly transporting the thermochemical state in computational simulations of turbulent reacting flows, projecting the high-dimensional thermochemical state-space onto a low-dimensional manifold. Recent efforts have yielded a manifold-based model applicable to multi-modal combustion, enabling reconstruction of the thermochemical state from solutions to two-dimensional manifold equations in mixture fraction and generalized progress variable that are parameterised by three scalar dissipation rates. In coarse-grained simulations such as Large Eddy Simulation (LES), closure of the multi-modal manifold equations and subfilter variances/covariance requires closure of three filtered scalar dissipation rates. Here, the present work adopts a data-based approach, providing closure for the three filtered scalar dissipation rates via deep neural networks (DNNs). High-fidelity datasets corresponding to an autoigniting n-dodecane jet flame and a bluff body swirl-stabilized confined lifted spray flame of two aviation fuels (Jet-A and C1) with different ignition propensities are leveraged to generate training data that spans a diverse range of thermodynamic conditions and combustion modes, including low- and high-temperature ignition regimes in addition to premixed and nonpremixed behaviour. A final DNN model is trained to enforce inherent physical constraints by learning nonlinear functional transformations of the three filtered scalar dissipation rates. The generalizability of this constrained DNN model is demonstrated a priori via conditional statistics evaluated on the lifted spray flame with C1–a configuration that had not been included in the training data. Excellent DNN agreement with conditional DNS statistics is observed, and integrated gradients are computed to identify the most sensitive input variables. The similarity of the marginal PDFs of the most informative input variables and outputs across configurations are quantified via the Wasserstein metric, demonstrating that data-based models may successfully generalize to unseen parametric conditions so long as the most informative input variables share similar distributions across training and testing datasets.

Data-based modelling↗