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DOE OSTI2021

Estimating Watershed Subsurface Permeability From Stream Discharge Data Using Deep Neural Networks

Subsurface permeability is a key parameter in watershed models that controls the contribution from the subsurface flow to stream flows. Since the permeability is difficult and expensive to measure directly at the spatial extent and resolution required by fully distributed watershed models, estimation through inverse modeling has had a long history in subsurface hydrology. The wide availability of stream surface flow data, compared to groundwater monitoring data, provides a new data source to infer soil and geologic properties using integrated surface and subsurface hydrologic models. As most of the existing methods have shown difficulty in dealing with highly nonlinear inverse problems, we explore the use of deep neural networks for inversion owing to their successes in mapping complex, highly nonlinear relationships. We train various deep neural network (DNN) models with different architectures to predict subsurface permeability from stream discharge hydrograph at the watershed outlet. The training data are obtained from ensemble simulations of hydrographs corresponding to an permeability ensemble using a fully-distributed, integrated surface-subsurface hydrologic model. The trained model is then applied to estimate the permeability of the real watershed using its observed hydrograph at the outlet. Our study demonstrates that the permeabilities of the soil and geologic facies that make significant contributions to the outlet discharge can be more accurately estimated from the discharge data. Their estimations are also more robust with observation errors. Compared to the traditional ensemble smoother method, DNNs show stronger performance in capturing the nonlinear relationship between permeability and stream hydrograph to accurately estimate permeability. Our study sheds new light on the value of the emerging deep learning methods in assisting integrated watershed modeling by improving parameter estimation, which will eventually reduce the uncertainty in predictive watershed models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Anomaly Detection and Mitigation in FACTS-based Wide-Area Voltage Control Systems using Machine Learning

With the increasing deployment of Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) devices in wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) for achieving improved voltage stability of bulk power systems, the possibility for cyber attacks on these systems is also increasing. Successful stealthy cyber attacks that are difficult to detect by traditional informational technology (IT)-based cybersecurity solutions or threshold-based bad data detectors can lead to a voltage collapse in power grid. This paper presents the testbed-based attacks implementation and real-time evaluation of machine learning (ML) algorithm for detecting and mitigating stealthy cyber attacks on FACTS-based WAVCS on a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed. Initially, we discuss the implementation of a fuzzy logic controller (FLC) that controls a Static VAR Compensator (SVC) device deployed in a two-area four-machine Kundur power system for improving transient voltage stability. Later, the ML-based Anomaly Detection and Mitigation (ADM) system is implemented on the cyber-physical HIL testbed to detect and mitigate various stealthy cyber attacks, which are injected in real-time over the wide-area network (WAN). The experimental results show accurate and effective performance of ADM system in detecting and mitigating anomalies while keeping the grid stable and within the system operating limits, as defined by the North America Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

tell: a Python package to model future total electricity loads in the United States

The purpose of the Total ELectricity Load (tell) model is to generate 21st century profiles of hourly electricity load (demand) across the Conterminous United States (CONUS). tell loads reflect the impact of climate and socioeconomic change at a spatial and temporal resolution adequate for input to an electricity grid operations model. tell uses machine learning to develop profiles that are driven by projections of climate/meteorology and population. tell also harmonizes its results with United States (U.S.) state-level, annual projections from a national- to global-scale energy-economy model. This model accounts for a wide range of other factors affecting electricity demand, including technology change in the building sector, energy prices, and demand elasticities, which stems from model coupling with the U.S. version of the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA). tell was developed as part of the Integrated Multisector Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project. IM3 explores the vulnerability and resilience of interacting energy, water, land, and urban systems in response to compound stressors, such as climate trends, extreme events, population, urbanization, energy system transitions, and technology change

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

DSS-SimPy-RL (Open-DSS and SimPy based Cyber-Physical RL environment) [SWR-23-29]

Recently, numerous data-driven approaches to control an electric grid using machine learning techniques have been investigated. With the advancement of reinforcement learning (RL) based techniques, gradually the conventional optimization based solvers are being replaced with RL approach where there is uncertainty in the environment such as renewable generation or cyber system emulation. However, to train an agent efficiently, it requires numerous interactions with an environment to learn the best policies. There are numerous RL environments for the power systems based on some well-known simulators, similarly there are environment for communication domains. While majority of the cyber emulators are based in an UNIX environment, the power simulators are based in the Windows-based operating system, the generation of cyber-physical mixed domain RL environment has been challenging. Existing co-simulation methods are efficient but resource and time intensive to generate large scale data set for training RL agents. Hence, this software focuses on development and validation of a mixed domain RL environment using Open DSS for the physical side and leverages a discrete event simulator python package, SimPy, for cyber-side emulation which is Operating Systems agnostic. Further utilizing this software co-simulation and training RL agents for re-routing based resilient control for network reconfiguration and volt-var control in power distribution feeder are performed.

Sahu, Abhijeet↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning based simultaneous control of air handling unit discharge air and condenser water temperatures set-point for minimized cooling energy in an office building

In this study, an artificial intelligence based real-time prediction and control model to optimize condenser water temperature and discharge air temperature (DAT) set-points in water-cooled air handling unit (AHU) system has been developed. EnergyPlus-MATLAB co-simulation has been conducted to analyze the developed model's effectiveness. Here, to develop artificial neural networks (ANN) model, embedded neural network objects in MATLAB was utilized. The developed model could decide an optimal temperature set-points based on outdoor air wet-bulb temperature to reflect the Korean climate context. As a result, the developed ANN prediction model showed the predictive performance of Cv(RMSE) of approximately 21%. Compared to the conventional fixed temperature algorithm, which fixes AHU DAT at 14°C and condenser water temperature at 32°C, the ANN based optimized control showed a 22% total cooling energy reduction. These results show that significant energy savings can be achieved by simultaneously controlling condenser water temperature and AHU DAT set-points considering Korean climatic characteristics using AI technologies such as ANN models.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Universal Polarization Transformations: Spatial Programming of Polarization Scattering Matrices Using a Deep Learning‐Designed Diffractive Polarization Transformer

Abstract Controlled synthesis of optical fields having nonuniform polarization distributions presents a challenging task. Here, a universal polarization transformer is demonstrated that can synthesize a large set of arbitrarily‐selected, complex‐valued polarization scattering matrices between the polarization states at different positions within its input and output field‐of‐views (FOVs). This framework comprises 2D arrays of linear polarizers positioned between isotropic diffractive layers, each containing tens of thousands of diffractive features with optimizable transmission coefficients. After its deep learning‐based training, this diffractive polarization transformer can successfully implement N i N o = 10 000 different spatially‐encoded polarization scattering matrices with negligible error, where N i and N o represent the number of pixels in the input and output FOVs, respectively. This universal polarization transformation framework is experimentally validated in the terahertz spectrum by fabricating wire‐grid polarizers and integrating them with 3D‐printed diffractive layers to form a physical polarization transformer. Through this set‐up, an all‐optical polarization permutation operation of spatially‐varying polarization fields is demonstrated, and distinct spatially‐encoded polarization scattering matrices are simultaneously implemented between the input and output FOVs of a compact diffractive processor. This framework opens up new avenues for developing novel devices for universal polarization control and may find applications in, e.g., remote sensing, medical imaging, security, material inspection, and machine vision.

Optical neural networks↗

DOE OSTI2021

Toward Decoding the Relationship between Domain Structure and Functionality in Ferroelectrics via Hidden Latent Variables

Polarization switching mechanisms in ferroelectric materials are fundamentally linked to local domain structure and the presence of the structural defects, which both can act as nucleation and pinning centers and create local electrostatic and mechanical depolarization fields affecting wall dynamics. However, the general correlative mechanisms between domain structure and polarization dynamics are only weakly explored, precluding insight into the associated physical mechanisms. In this work, the correlation between local domain structures and switching behavior in ferroelectric materials is explored using convolutional encoder–decoder networks, enabling image to spectral (im2spec) and spectral to image (spec2im) translations via encoding of latent variables. The latter reflect the assumption that the relationship between domain structure and polarization switching is parsimonious, i.e., is based upon a small number of local mechanisms. The analysis of latent variables distributions and their real-space representations provides insight into the predictability of the local switching behavior and hence associated physical mechanisms. We further pose that the regions where these correlative relationships are violated, i.e., predictability of the polarization dynamics from domain structure is reduced, represent the obvious target for detailed studies, e.g., in the context of automated experiments. This approach provides a workflow to establish the presence of correlation between local spectral responses and local structure and can be universally applied to spectral imaging techniques such as piezoresponse force microscopy (PFM), scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) and spectroscopy, and electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS) in scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Topological Machine Learning Methods for Power System Responses to Contingencies

While deep learning tools, coupled with the emerging machinery of topological data analysis, are proven to deliver various performance gains in a broad range of applications, from image classification to biosurveillance to blockchain fraud detection, their utility in areas of high societal importance such as power system modeling and, particularly, resilience quantification in the energy sector yet remains untapped. To provide fast acting synthetic regulation and contingency reserve services to the grid while having minimal disruptions on customer quality of service, we propose a new topology-based system that depends on a neural network architecture for impact metric classification and prediction in power systems. This novel topology-based system allows one to evaluate the impact of three power system contingency types, in conjunction with transmission lines, transformers, and transmission lines combined with transformers. We show that the proposed new neural network architecture equipped with local topological measures facilitates more accurate classification of unserved load as well as the amount of unserved load. In addition, we are able to learn more about the complex relationships between electrical properties and local topological measurements on their simulated response to contingencies for the NREL-SIIP power system.

contingency analysis↗

DOE OSTI2022

Harmonized Automatic Relay Mitigation of Nefarious Intentional Events (HARMONIE) - Special Protection Scheme (SPS)

The harmonized automatic relay mitigation of nefarious intentional events (HARMONIE) special protection scheme (SPS) was developed to provide adaptive, cyber-physical response to unpredictable disturbances in the electric grid. The HARMONIE-SPS methodology includes a machine learning classification framework that analyzes real time cyber-physical data and determines if the system is in normal conditions, cyber disturbance, physical disturbance, or cyber-physical disturbance. This classification then informs response, if needed and/or suitable, and included cyber-physical corrective actions. Beyond standard power system mitigations, a few novel approaches were developed that included a consensus algorithm-based relay voting scheme, an automated power system triggering condition and corrective action pairing algorithm, and a cyber traffic routing optimization algorithm. Both the classification and response techniques were tested within a newly integrated emulation environment composed of a real-time digital simulator (RTDS) and SCEPTRE™. This report details the HARMONIE-SPS methodology, highlighting both the classification and response techniques, and the subsequent testing results from the emulation environment.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Learning to Unknot

We introduce natural language processing into the study of knot theory, as made natural by the braid word representation of knots. We study the UNKNOT problem of determining whether or not a given knot is the unknot. After describing an algorithm to randomly generate N-crossing braids and their knot closures and discussing the induced prior on the distribution of knots, we apply binary classification to the UNKNOT decision problem. We find that the Reformer and shared-QK Transformer network architectures outperform fully-connected networks, though all perform at 95% accuracy. Perhaps surprisingly, we find that accuracy increases with the length of the braid word, and that the networks learn a direct correlation between the confidence of their predictions and the degree of the Jones polynomial. Finally, we utilize reinforcement learning (RL) to find sequences of Markov moves and braid relations that simplify knots and can identify unknots by explicitly giving the sequence of unknotting actions. Trust region policy optimization (TRPO) performs consistently well, reducing 80% of the unknots with up to 96 crossings we tested to the empty braid word, and thoroughly outperformed other RL algorithms and random walkers. Studying these actions, we find that braid relations are more useful in simplifying to the unknot than one of the Markov moves.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Combustion Performance and Emissions Optimization Through Integration of a Miniaturized High-Temperature Multi Process Monitoring System

The main objective of this research program is to design, manufacture, and demonstrate a miniaturized, multi-process, monitoring system (mMPMS) for boiler condition management and easy system deployment to obtain a higher spatial resolution. This system will facilitate a Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) philosophy that actively monitors the health of assets to predict and prevent failures and maximize availability and generating capacity at a reduced cost. CBM systems can provide boiler data that the advanced process control (APC) system can utilize for plant performance optimization, which is increasingly relevant as coal power plants shift from predominantly base-load operation to predominantly transient operation involving large load swings. The mMPMS is based on an electrochemical sensor that provides a real-time indication of the risk of damage to key locations in the radiant or convective section of a coal-fired boiler such as metal loss rates, heat flux, metal surface temperature, and deposit thickness. These indications can be utilized to optimize boiler performance as well as improve boiler availability in conjunction with corresponding operating conditions. This monitoring system was developed and tested in the high-temperature regions of coal-fired utility boilers in this project but can be applied to many other industries and applications as well. This project leveraged the existing electrochemical noise-based monitoring system and the new sensor design is small enough to be installed through the webbing of the waterwalls without the need for long shut-downs to bend tubes and to make it feasible to obtain high spatial resolution in the boiler. Data is transferred to the plant distributed control system (DCS) and any other control system. The sensor body that houses the sensor assembly was designed to ensure good conductive contact with boiler tubes to ensure the sensor is held at an identical temperature to the tube surface temperature. The data acquisition and signal conditioning modules were redesigned into a small footprint with optimized cooling of the module. System software was developed specifically for the new signal conditioning module and is compatible with plant PLCs. After the preliminary testing at a pilot-scale facility, five mMPMS were installed at a full-scale pulverized coal-fired plant, Basin Electric Power Cooperative’s Leland Olds Unit 1. The systems were demonstrated over a 6-week period during typical operation. Sensor measurements of deposit thickness were validated during the demonstration and subsequently leveraged to determine sensor-based boiler cleaning strategies. These strategies have the benefit of reduced thermal stresses on boiler tubes from over-cleaning and improved boiler water management. At the end of the project, continued development of the sensor technology was carried out at PacifiCorp’s Hunter Station. REI leveraged the permanent installation of the mMPMS in Unit 3 made possible by DOE funding on a separate program. The work at Hunter Plant focused on application of machine learning and artificial intelligence-based models for integration of sensor signals into control and optimization of Hunter Unit 3 processes.

Advanced Sensors, Corrosion, Ash Deposition, Optim↗

DOE OSTI2021

Combustion Performance and Emissions Optimization through Integration of Miniaturized High Temperature Multi Process Monitoring System

The main objective of this research program is to design, manufacture, and demonstrate a miniaturized, multi-process, monitoring system (mMPMS) for boiler condition management and easy system deployment to obtain a higher spatial resolution. This system will facilitate a Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) philosophy that actively monitors the health of assets to predict and prevent failures and maximize availability and generating capacity at a reduced cost. CBM systems can provide boiler data that the advanced process control (APC) system can utilize for plant performance optimization, which is increasingly relevant as coal power plants shift from predominantly base-load operation to predominantly transient operation involving large load swings. The mMPMS is based on an electrochemical sensor that provides a real-time indication of the risk of damage to key locations in the radiant or convective section of a coal-fired boiler such as metal loss rates, heat flux, metal surface temperature, and deposit thickness. These indications can be utilized to optimize boiler performance as well as improve boiler availability in conjunction with corresponding operating conditions. This monitoring system was developed and tested in the high-temperature regions of coal-fired utility boilers in this project but can be applied to many other industries and applications as well. The new sensor design, leveraging the existing electrochemical noise-based monitoring system, is small enough to be installed through the webbing of the waterwalls without the need for long shut-downs to bend tubes and to make it feasible to obtain high spatial resolution in the boiler. Data can be transferred to the plant distributed control system (DCS) and any other control system. The sensor body that houses the sensor assembly was designed to ensure good conductive contact with boiler tubes to ensure the sensor is held at an identical temperature to the tube surface temperature. The data acquisition and signal conditioning modules were redesigned into a small footprint with optimized cooling of the module. System software was developed specifically for the new signal conditioning module and is compatible with plant PLCs. After the preliminary testing at a pilot-scale facility, five mMPMS were installed at a full-scale pulverized coal-fired plant, Basin Electric Power Cooperative’s Leland Olds Unit 1. The systems were demonstrated over a 6-week period during typical operation. Sensor measurements of deposit thickness were validated during the demonstration and subsequently leveraged to determine sensor-based boiler cleaning strategies. These strategies have the benefit of reduced thermal stresses on boiler tubes from over-cleaning and improved boiler water management. At the end of the project, continued development of the sensor technology was carried out at PacifiCorp’s Hunter Station. REI leveraged the permanent installation of the mMPMS in Unit 3 made possible by DOE funding on a separate program. The work at Hunter Plant focused on application of machine learning and artificial intelligence-based models for integration of sensor signals into control and optimization of Hunter Unit 3 processes.

Advanced Sensors, Corrosion, Ash Deposition, Optim↗

DOE OSTI2022

Combustion Performance and Emissions Optimization Through Integration of a Miniaturized High-Temperature Multi Process Monitoring System

The main objective of this research program is to design, manufacture, and demonstrate a miniaturized, multi-process, monitoring system (mMPMS) for boiler condition management and easy system deployment to obtain a higher spatial resolution. This system will facilitate a Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) philosophy that actively monitors the health of assets to predict and prevent failures and maximize availability and generating capacity at a reduced cost. CBM systems can provide boiler data that the advanced process control (APC) system can utilize for plant performance optimization, which is increasingly relevant as coal power plants shift from predominantly base-load operation to predominantly transient operation involving large load swings. The mMPMS is based on an electrochemical sensor that provides a real-time indication of the risk of damage to key locations in the radiant or convective section of a coal-fired boiler such as metal loss rates, heat flux, metal surface temperature, and deposit thickness. These indications can be utilized to optimize boiler performance as well as improve boiler availability in conjunction with corresponding operating conditions. This monitoring system was developed and tested in the high-temperature regions of coal-fired utility boilers in this project but can be applied to many other industries and applications as well. The new sensor design, leveraging the existing electrochemical noise-based monitoring system, is small enough to be installed through the webbing of the waterwalls without the need for long shut-downs to bend tubes and to make it feasible to obtain high spatial resolution in the boiler. Data can be transferred to the plant distributed control system (DCS) and any other control system. The sensor body that houses the sensor assembly was designed to ensure good conductive contact with boiler tubes to ensure the sensor is held at an identical temperature to the tube surface temperature. The data acquisition and signal conditioning modules were redesigned into a small footprint with optimized cooling of the module. System software was developed specifically for the new signal conditioning module and is compatible with plant PLCs. After the preliminary testing at a pilot-scale facility, five mMPMS were installed at a full-scale pulverized coal-fired plant, Basin Electric Power Cooperative’s Leland Olds Unit 1. The systems were demonstrated over a 6-week period during typical operation. Sensor measurements of deposit thickness were validated during the demonstration and subsequently leveraged to determine sensor-based boiler cleaning strategies. These strategies have the benefit of reduced thermal stresses on boiler tubes from over-cleaning and improved boiler water management. At the end of the project, continued development of the sensor technology was carried out at PacifiCorp’s Hunter Station. REI leveraged the permanent installation of the mMPMS in Unit 3 made possible by DOE funding on a separate program. The work at Hunter Plant focused on application of machine learning and artificial intelligence-based models for integration of sensor signals into control and optimization of Hunter Unit 3 processes.

Advanced Sensors, Corrosion, Ash Deposition, Optim↗

DOE OSTI2024

Combustion Performance and Emissions Optimization Through Integration of a Miniaturized High-Temperature Multi Process Monitoring System

The main objective of this research program is to design, manufacture, and demonstrate a miniaturized, multi-process, monitoring system (mMPMS) for boiler condition management and easy system deployment to obtain a higher spatial resolution of wall conditions in utility boilers. This system will facilitate a Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) philosophy that actively monitors the health of assets to predict and prevent failures and maximize availability and generating capacity at a reduced cost. CBM systems can provide boiler data that the advanced process control (APC) system can utilize for plant performance optimization, which is increasingly relevant as coal power plants shift from predominantly base-load operation to predominantly transient operation involving large load swings. The mMPMS is based on an electrochemical sensor that provides a real-time indication of the risk of damage to key locations in the radiant or convective section of a coal-fired boiler such as metal loss rates, heat flux, metal surface temperature, and deposit thickness. These indications can be utilized to optimize boiler performance as well as improve boiler availability in conjunction with corresponding operating conditions. This monitoring system was developed and tested in the high-temperature regions of a coal-fired utility boiler in this project but can be applied to many other industries and applications as well. The new sensor design, leveraging the existing electrochemical noise-based monitoring system, is small enough to be installed through the webbing of the waterwalls without the need for long shut-downs to bend tubes and to make it feasible to obtain high spatial resolution in the boiler. Data can be transferred to the plant distributed control system (DCS) and any other control system. The sensor body that houses the sensor assembly was designed to ensure good conductive contact with boiler tubes to ensure the sensor is held at an identical temperature to the tube surface temperature. The data acquisition and signal conditioning modules were redesigned into a small footprint with optimized cooling of the module. System software was developed specifically for the new signal conditioning module and is compatible with plant PLCs. After the preliminary testing at a pilot-scale facility, five mMPMS were installed at a full-scale pulverized coal-fired plant, Basin Electric Power Cooperative’s Leland Olds Unit 1. The systems were demonstrated over a 6-week period during typical operation. Sensor measurements of deposit thickness were validated during the demonstration and subsequently leveraged to determine sensor-based boiler cleaning strategies. These strategies have the benefit of reduced thermal stresses on boiler tubes from over-cleaning and improved boiler water management. At the end of the project, continued development of the sensor technology was carried out at PacifiCorp’s Hunter Station. REI leveraged the permanent installation of the mMPMS in Unit 3 made possible by DOE funding on a separate program. The work at Hunter Plant focused on application of machine learning and artificial intelligence-based models for integration of sensor signals into control and optimization of Hunter Unit 3 processes.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

High-Temperature Multi-Process Sensor Development and Demonstration at a Full-scale PC Combustion System

The main objective of this research program is to design, manufacture, and demonstrate a miniaturized, multi-process, monitoring system (mMPMS) for boiler condition management and easy system deployment to obtain a higher spatial resolution of wall conditions in utility boilers. This system will facilitate a Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) philosophy that actively monitors the health of assets to predict and prevent failures and maximize availability and generating capacity at a reduced cost. CBM systems can provide boiler data that the advanced process control (APC) system can utilize for plant performance optimization, which is increasingly relevant as coal power plants shift from predominantly base-load operation to predominantly transient operation involving large load swings. The mMPMS is based on an electrochemical sensor that provides a real-time indication of the risk of damage to key locations in the radiant or convective section of a coal-fired boiler such as metal loss rates, heat flux, metal surface temperature, and deposit thickness. These indications can be utilized to optimize boiler performance as well as improve boiler availability in conjunction with corresponding operating conditions. This monitoring system was developed and tested in the high-temperature regions of a coal-fired utility boiler in this project but can be applied to many other industries and applications as well. The new sensor design, leveraging the existing electrochemical noise-based monitoring system, is small enough to be installed through the webbing of the waterwalls without the need for long shut-downs to bend tubes and to make it feasible to obtain high spatial resolution in the boiler. Data can be transferred to the plant distributed control system (DCS) and any other control system. The sensor body that houses the sensor assembly was designed to ensure good conductive contact with boiler tubes to ensure the sensor is held at an identical temperature to the tube surface temperature. The data acquisition and signal conditioning modules were redesigned into a small footprint with optimized cooling of the module. System software was developed specifically for the new signal conditioning module and is compatible with plant PLCs. After the preliminary testing at a pilot-scale facility, five mMPMS were installed at a full-scale pulverized coal-fired plant, Basin Electric Power Cooperative’s Leland Olds Unit 1. The systems were demonstrated over a 6-week period during typical operation. Sensor measurements of deposit thickness were validated during the demonstration and subsequently leveraged to determine sensor-based boiler cleaning strategies. These strategies have the benefit of reduced thermal stresses on boiler tubes from over-cleaning and improved boiler water management. At the end of the project, continued development of the sensor technology was carried out at PacifiCorp’s Hunter Station. REI leveraged the permanent installation of the mMPMS in Unit 3 made possible by DOE funding on a separate program. The work at Hunter Plant focused on application of machine learning and artificial intelligence-based models for integration of sensor signals into control and optimization of Hunter Unit 3 processes.

Advanced Sensors, Corrosion, Ash Deposition, Optim↗

NASA NTRS2025

Gaussian Process for Flight Delay Prediction: Learning a Stochastic Process

This paper presents a machine-learning approach to predict flight delays. Whereas neural networks are extensively studied for predictive capabilities, they involve non-intuitive design and extensive analysis, particularly in training and optimization processes. Instead, the proposed framework employs Gaussian Processes as a supervised learning technique for flight delay prediction. This data-driven approach trains the model using prior information, specifically the mean and covariance tied to existing data. The proposed Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model employs the day of flight as a pivotal feature for delay forecasting. We analyze flights from various routes and gauge the accuracy of the presented learning technique by comparing the predicted delays with the actual ones. Given the inherent challenges in precisely forecasting delays, we predict the delays with a 95 % confidence interval. Also, an error propagation analysis in the prediction horizon is carried out to determine the optimal time frame for prediction. The proposed method for flight delay prediction is important as airlines can strategize flight operations and issue timely advisories.

stochastic↗

DOE OSTI2024

Autonomous control for Heat-Pipe microreactor using Data-Driven model predictive control

To enable a self-regulating capability for heat pipe (HP) microreactors, an anticipatory control strategy achieved via model predictive control (MPC) could proactively respond to potential disturbances and deviations in operating setpoints. This paper demonstrates data-driven methods for predicting the distribution and transient of temperatures and heat fluxes at selected components and regions in a 37-HP system, based on which the optimal control actions in response to changes in user-defined setpoints can be found. We present the development and validation of linear state-space model, feedfoward, and recurrent neural networks. Here, we compare the performance of MPCs with different modeling approaches in terms of following setpoints for temperatures and averaged output heat fluxes. The accuracies of the three data-driven models are similar, but the control actions initiated by neural-network-based MPC can better adapt to drastic changes in setpoints yet generate the smallest errors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian inference in band excitation scanning probe microscopy for optimal dynamic model selection in imaging

The universal tendency in scanning probe microscopy (SPM) over the last two decades is to transition from simple 2D imaging to complex detection and spectroscopic imaging modes. The emergence of complex SPM engines brings forth the challenge of reliable data interpretation, i.e., conversion from detected signals to descriptors specific to tip–surface interactions and subsequently to material’s properties. In this work, we implemented a Bayesian inference approach for the analysis of the image formation mechanisms in band excitation SPM. Compared to the point estimates in classical functional fit approaches, Bayesian inference allows for the incorporation of extant knowledge of materials and probe behavior in the form of corresponding prior distribution and return the information on the material functionality in the form of readily interpretable posterior distributions. We explore the nonlinear mechanical behaviors spatially in a classical ferroelectric material, PbTiO 3 . We observe the non-trivial evolution of the Duffing stiffness term and the nonlinearity of the sample surface, determine spatial clustering of the nonlinear response, and perform a Landau analysis on predicting the nonlinear coefficient, which indicates that ferroelectric behavior can be a cause of the observed results. These observations suggest that the spectrum of anomalous behaviors at the ferroelectric domain walls may be broader than previously believed and can extend to non-conventional mechanical properties in addition to static and microwave conductance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗