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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Governance in Strategic Environmental Assessment: Lessons from the Portuguese practice

The analysis of governance in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) can help understand why, whether and how strategic decision-making happens. Understanding the governance context is strategic to improve the role and capacity of SEA to stimulate, and legitimate decisions that integrate environmental issues and are sustainability driven. The objective of this paper is to discuss why governance is important in SEA. In the SEA literature governance is mostly addressed in silos (i.e. public participation or decisions transparency or accountability) rather than in an integrated way. In addition few authors adopt a strategic view to address the governance context within which SEA is used. In this paper we address the heuristics of governance in SEA based on theoretical and empirical evidence, suggesting how SEA may incorporate the governance dimension. First a review of the SEA literature in relation to governance sets the context to the analysis on how governance is approached in practice, based on 60 Portuguese SEA cases. This is followed by the presentation of an empirical SEA case conducted in Portugal to illustrate what, in our understanding, can be an example of good practice in considering governance in SEA. Final discussion reflects on the role of governance in SEA in promoting engagement, enabling collaborative action, learning processes and dialogues, concluding on the relevance of governance in creating development contexts that can deal with change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Entropy removal of medical diagnostics

Shannon entropy is a core concept in machine learning and information theory, particularly in decision tree modeling. To date, no studies have extensively and quantitatively applied Shannon entropy in a systematic way to quantify the entropy of clinical situations using diagnostic variables (true and false positives and negatives, respectively). Decision tree representations of medical decision-making tools can be generated using diagnostic variables found in literature and entropy removal can be calculated for these tools. This concept of clinical entropy removal has significant potential for further use to bring forth healthcare innovation, such as quantifying the impact of clinical guidelines and value of care and applications to Emergency Medicine scenarios where diagnostic accuracy in a limited time window is paramount. This analysis was done for 623 diagnostic tools and provided unique insights into their utility. For studies that provided detailed data on medical decision-making algorithms, bootstrapped datasets were generated from source data to perform comprehensive machine learning analysis on these algorithms and their constituent steps, which revealed a novel and thorough evaluation of medical diagnostic algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Meeting Global Health Needs via Infectious Disease Forecasting: Development of a Reliable Data-Driven Framework

Infectious diseases (IDs) have a significant detrimental impact on global health. Timely and accurate ID forecasting can result in more informed implementation of control measures and prevention policies. To meet the operational decision-making needs of real-world circumstances, we aimed to build a standardized, reliable, and trustworthy ID forecasting pipeline and visualization dashboard that is generalizable across a wide range of modeling techniques, IDs, and global locations. We forecasted 6 diverse, zoonotic diseases (brucellosis, campylobacteriosis, Middle East respiratory syndrome, Q fever, tick-borne encephalitis, and tularemia) across 4 continents and 8 countries. We included a wide range of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models (n=9) and trained them on a multitude of features (average n=2326) within the One Health landscape, including demography, landscape, climate, and socioeconomic factors. The pipeline and dashboard were created in consideration of crucial operational metrics—prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, spatiotemporal generalizability, uncertainty quantification, and interpretability—which are essential to strategic data-driven decisions. While no single best model was suitable for all disease, region, and country combinations, our ensemble technique selects the best-performing model for each given scenario to achieve the closest prediction. For new or emerging diseases in a region, the ensemble model can predict how the disease may behave in the new region using a pretrained model from a similar region with a history of that disease. The data visualization dashboard provides a clean interface of important analytical metrics, such as ID temporal patterns, forecasts, prediction uncertainties, and model feature importance across all geographic locations and disease combinations. As the need for real-time, operational ID forecasting capabilities increases, this standardized and automated platform for data collection, analysis, and reporting is a major step forward in enabling evidence-based public health decisions and policies for the prevention and mitigation of future ID outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Current Trends in the Detection of Sociocultural Signatures: Data-Driven Models

The harvesting of behavioral data and their analysis through evidence-based reasoning enable the detection of sociocultural signatures in their context to support situation awareness and decision making. Harvested data are used as training materials from which to infer computational models of sociocultural behaviors or calibrate parameters for such models. Harvested data also serve as evidence input that the models use to provide insights about observed and future behaviors for targets of interest. The harvested data is often the result of assembling diverse data types and aggregating them into a form suitable for analysis. Data need to be analyzed to bring out the categories of content that are relevant to the domain being addressed in order to train or run a model. If, for example, we are modeling the intent of a group to engage in violent behavior using messages that the group has broadcasted, then these messages need to be processed to extract and measure indicators of violent intent. The extracted indicators and the associated measurements (e.g. rates or counts of occurrence) can then be used to train/calibrate and run computational models that assess the propensity for violence expressed in the source message. Ubiquitous access to the Internet, mobile telephony and technologies such as digital photography and digital video have enabled social media application platforms such as Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter that are altering the nature of human social interaction. The fast increasing pace of online social interaction introduces new challenges and opportunities for gathering sociocultural data. Challenges include the development of harvesting and processing techniques tailored to new data environments and formats (e.g. Twitter, Facebook), the integration of social media content with traditional media content, and the protection of personal privacy. As these and other challenges are addressed, a new wealth of behavioral data and data analysis methods becomes available that are shaping social computing as a strongly data-driven experimental discipline with an increasingly stronger impact on the decision-making process of groups and individuals alike. In this chapter, we review current advances and trends in the detection of sociocultural signatures. Specific embodiments of the issues discussed are provided with respect to the assessment of violent intent and sociopolitical contention. We begin by reviewing current approaches to the detection of sociocultural signatures in these domains. Next, we turn to the review of novel data harvesting methods for social media content. Finally, we discuss the application of sociocultural models to social media content, and conclude by commenting on current challenges and future developments.

Sanfilippo, Antonio P.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Energy sector portfolio analysis with uncertainty

Governments are dealing with the challenge of how to efficiently invest in research and development portfolios related to energy technologies. Research and development investment decisions in the energy space are especially difficult due to numerous risks and uncertainties, and due to the complexity of energy's interactions with the broad economy. Historically, much of the U.S. Department of Energy's in-depth research and development analyses focused on assessing the impact of a research and development activity in isolation from other available opportunities and did not substantially consider risk and uncertainty. Endeavoring to combine integrated energy-economy modeling with uncertainty analysis and technology-specific research and development activities, the U.S. Department of Energy commissioned the development of the Stochastic Energy Deployment System to support and improve public energy research and development decision-making. The Stochastic Energy Deployment System draws from expert-elicited probability distributions for research and development-driven improvements in technology cost and performance, and it uses Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the likelihood of outcomes within a system dynamics energy-economy model. The framework estimates the uncertain benefits and costs of various research and development portfolios and provides insight into the probability of meeting national technology goals, while accounting for interactions with the larger economy and for interactions among research and development investments spanning many energy sectors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Biomass Scenario Model: BETO Analysis Platform Peer Review; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art fourth-generation model of the domestic bioenergy supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues and their potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, behavior, policy, and physical, technological, and economic constraints. The BSM uses system-dynamics simulation to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain; it tracks the deployment of biofuels given technological development and the reaction of the investment community to those technologies in the context of land availability, the competing oil market, consumer demand for biofuels, and government policies over time. It places a strong emphasis on the behavior and decision-making of various economic agents. The model treats the major infrastructure-compatible fuels. Scenario analysis based on the BSM shows that the biofuels industry tends not to rapidly thrive without significant external actions in the early years of its evolution. An initial focus for jumpstarting the industry typically has strongest results in the BSM in areas where effects of intervention have been identified to be multiplicative. In general, we find that policies which are coordinated across the whole supply chain have significant impact in fostering the growth of the biofuels industry and that the production of tens of billions of gallons of biofuels may occur under sufficiently favorable conditions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Even Higher-Level Synthesis: An Exploration of AI Hardware Accelerators using HLS4ML

With the rise of artificial intelligence, the popularization of deep learning, and a constantly evolving industry, the demand for flexible and efficient tools has never been greater. As algorithms grow more complex, their runtime and energy consumption increase exponentially. Customized hardware accelerators, long used for specific mathematical operations, remain essential for managing modern applications' computational and power demands. Hardware accelerators can speed up complex computations by orders of magnitude, but their manual design and verification processes are often challenging and time-consuming. High-Level Synthesis (HLS) provides a solution by transforming high-level algorithm descriptions, typically written in C++ or SystemC, into synthesizable RTL suitable for hardware implementation. This approach reduces development time for RTL engineers while offering flexibility beyond what traditional handwritten RTL can provide. We extended this capability to the machine-learning domain with the open-source framework hls4ml, which allows neural networks trained in Python frameworks like Tensorflow or PyTorch to be synthesized into efficient hardware representations for the traditional FPGA and ASIC flows. This breakthrough addresses the growing need for reduced design turnaround and easy verification of ML hardware accelerators with low latency and power efficiency constraints. During this tutorial, we will demonstrate how Python complements HLS by simplifying the ML design process, bridging the gap between software and hardware development. Attendees will explore how we translate neural networks modeled in Python into fixed-point C++ models suitable for HLS workflows. We will dive into strategies like Value-Range Analysis and Quantization-Aware Training, which optimize these designs for deployment and evaluate their accuracy, power consumption, and energy efficiency. To exemplify these concepts, experts from Fermilab will share their experiences applying this technology to high-energy physics experiments, where real-time, low-latency processing is critical. Over the years, Fermilab engineers have demonstrated how deep neural networks, optimized for hardware using hls4ml, can meet the stringent requirements of trigger systems at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. These systems rely on rapid decision-making to process immense data volumes while retaining only the most relevant events for further analysis. The application of hls4ml has also been extended to innovative technologies like smart pixel arrays. These smart pixels integrate ML inference capabilities directly into sensor devices, enabling localized data processing at the pixel level. This approach drastically reduces the need to transmit raw data to external processing units, significantly decreasing power consumption and latency. By embedding neural networks within the pixel architecture, the smart pixels can identify and prioritize relevant data in real time, providing a highly efficient solution for edge computing in scenarios such as particle detectors and imaging systems. Fermilab's work highlights the potential of hardware-accelerated ML in scenarios where both speed and power efficiency are mission-critical. Through this tutorial, attendees will gain valuable insights into the challenges and solutions of deploying ML in hardware. Understanding how HLS and hls4ml streamline the development of neural network-based hardware accelerators is fundamental for the industry's future. Participants will learn how these technologies are shaping the future of AI and scientific computing.

Di Guglielmo, Giuseppe [Fermilab]↗
NASA NTRS2009

Overview of the Altair Lunar Lander Thermal Control System Design

NASA's Constellation Program has been developed to successfully return humans to the Lunar surface prior to 2020. The Constellation Program includes several different project offices including Altair, which is the next generation Lunar Lander. The planned Altair missions are very different than the Lunar missions accomplished during the Apollo era. These differences have resulted in a significantly different thermal control system architecture. The Altair project has employed a rather unique development approach as compared with previous manned spacecraft programs. Altair started the design process by developing a single-string (no fault tolerance), minimum functionality design. This first design and analysis cycle resulted in the baseline design for the entire process. From this point of departure, Altair continued the development process by adding vehicle functionality for the purposes of minimizing the risk of Loss Of Crew (LOC) and Loss Of Mission (LOM). Through the subsequent design and analysis cycles, the project office compared the added mass associated with the reduction of LOC/LOM and selected the most mass efficient design solutions. The current paper will summarize the Altair mission profile, the operational phases, and the LOC/LOM decisions that were made during the various design cycles. The evolution of the thermal control system design through Lunar Design and Analysis Cycle 3 (LDAC-3) will also be described in this paper.

Stephan, Ryan A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Catalina Repower Feasibility Study: NREL Phases I & II Summary Report

Engineers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) supported Southern California Edison (SCE) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) by conducting technical and economic analyses for energy systems at Santa Catalina (Catalina) Island, which is located 22 miles off the coast of Long Beach, California. This effort was part of a broader Repower Catalina Feasibility Study that was also supported by NV5, an engineering consulting firm and project partner to NREL for this analysis. This document describes NREL’s techno-economic modeling and optimization analysis for the first two phases of this project which focus on supply-side generation and energy storage options for Catalina. SCE’s goal for this analysis is to determine a strategy for electricity generation on Catalina Island that results in lower energy costs, improved energy resiliency, and reduced air emissions. EPA goals for this effort are to reduce emissions of air pollution and encourage renewable energy development on contaminated and formerly contaminated lands when such development is aligned with the community’s vision for the site. Currently, an on-island SCE power plant serves the Catalina Island electrical load with 6 reciprocating diesel generators totaling 9.4 MW; 23 propane-fueled microturbines totaling 1.5 MW; and a 1-MW, 7.2-MWh sodium sulfur battery energy storage system (BESS). In 2017, the electricity consumption on the island was 29.1 GWh, with an average load of 3.3 MW and peak load of approximately 5.5 MW. Considering new environmental standards on diesel generator emissions from California’s South Coast Air Quality Management District, a 60% renewable energy target for 2030 laid out in California’s Senate Bill 100, SCE’s Clean Power Electrification Pathway, and the characteristics of the island’s existing diesel generators, SCE is seeking to evaluate the technical and economic implications of different energy technology options to determine a path forward. Phases I and II of the Repower Catalina Feasibility Study, summarized in this document, evaluated the following: Interconnection with the mainland via an undersea cable; On-island fossil fuel generation, including diesel, propane, and/or liquified natural gas (LNG); On-island renewable energy (RE) technologies, including solar photovoltaics (PV), wind turbines, and wave energy devices; BESS to support the above generation technologies; Initial analysis of the potential impacts of implementing energy efficiency measures. Results indicate strong techno-economic potential for a mix of on-island diesel and/or propane generators, solar PV, BESS, and energy efficiency measures to help SCE and Catalina achieve their goals compliant with California’s emissions and clean energy standards while minimizing electricity life cycle costs (LCC) over the 30-year analysis period. This document summarizes the considerations and findings of Phases I and II, focusing on high-level takeaways from Phase I and more detailed results from Phase II, and discusses a potential path forward for Phase III.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2013

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Support and Modeling for the Boiling Water Reactor Station Black Out Case Study Using RELAP and RAVEN

The existing fleet of nuclear power plants is in the process of extending its lifetime and increasing the power generated. In order to evaluate the impact of these two factors on the safety of the plant, the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) project aims to provide insight to decision makers through a series of simulations of the plant dynamics for different initial conditions (e.g., probabilistic analysis and uncertainty quantification). This report focuses, in particular, on the impact of power uprate on the safety of a boiled water reactor system. The case study considered is a loss of off-site power followed by the loss of diesel generators, i.e., a station black out (SBO) event. Analysis is performed by using a thermo-hydraulic code, i.e. RELAP-5, and a stochastic analysis tool currently under development at INL, i.e. RAVEN. Starting from the event tree models contained in SAPHIRE, we built the input file for RELAP-5 that models in great detail system dynamics under SBO conditions. We also interfaced RAVEN with RELAP-5 so that it would be possible to run multiple RELAP-5 simulation runs by changing specific keywords of the input file. We both employed classical statistical tools, i.e. Monte-Carlo, and more advanced machine learning based algorithms to perform uncertainty quantification in order to quantify changes in system performance and limitations as a consequence of power uprate. We also employed advanced data analysis and visualization tools that helped us to correlate simulation outcome such as maximum core temperature with a set of input uncertain parameters. Results obtained gave a detailed overview of the issues associated to power uprate for a SBO accident scenario. We were able to quantify how timing of safety related events were impacted by a higher reactor core power. Such insights can provide useful material to the decision makers to perform risk-infomed safety margins management.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS1978

Study of hypersonic propulsion/airframe integration technology

An assessment is done of current and potential ground facilities, and analysis and flight test techniques for establishing a hypersonic propulsion/airframe integration technology base. A mach 6 cruise prototype aircraft incorporating integrated Scramjet engines was considered the baseline configuration, and the assessment focused on the aerodynamic and configuration aspects of the integration technology. The study describes the key technology milestones that must be met to permit a decision on development of a prototype vehicle, and defines risk levels for these milestones. Capabilities and limitations of analysis techniques, current and potential ground test facilities, and flight test techniques are described in terms of the milestones and risk levels.

Hartill, W. R.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Integrated Solutions for Optimized Performance (ISOP) Final Technical Report

The goal of this project was to demonstrate technical feasibility of an integrated approach for deep energy retrofits by packaging innovative technologies with smart communicating controls that represent the next generation of energy efficiency. The integrated solutions for optimized performance (ISOP) package integrates (i) advanced lighting and plug load controls; (ii) intelligent daylight harvesting through automated self-powered shades and window films; (iii) advanced HVAC controls sequences (ASHRAE Guideline (GDL) 36); and (iv) fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) and continuous commissioning (CCx) using advanced analytics. These technologies address energy use across multiple building end uses that represent more than 60% of the energy consumption in all commercial buildings. The project was structured to be implemented over three budget periods: Budget Period 1 scope included site selection, project design, site-specific customization of technology packages, procurement of technologies, initiation of installation of technologies, the development of a measurement and verification plan and collection of pre-retrofit data collection. The first year go/no-go decision was based on securing host sites representing 250,000 sq. ft. of occupied operational spaces, savings analysis, technology procurement and initiation of installation. Budget Period 2 planned to complete technology installations and initiate data collection of post-retrofit performance data. The second year go/no-go was to be the completion of technology installations and commissioning, metering and data collecting to support the requirements laid out in site specific M&V plans. Budget Period 3 planned to collect and analyze post-retrofit performance data and provide data and reporting to support energy efficiency rebate programs. After the team completed activities planned for Budget Period 1, the team reached a Go/No-Go Decision Point. At that point, TRC recommended that DOE discontinue the project without prejudice due to challenges with securing demonstration sites to meet the full 250,000 sf of occupied operational spaces and DOE concurred. In Budget Period 1, the TRC team developed criteria to recruit and evaluate potential demonstration host sites. TRC worked with Princeton University, the project demonstration partner, to identify buildings on their campus as potential candidates for the demonstration. Following the selection of demonstration sites, the TRC team customized energy technology packages according to the needs and characteristics of each site. TRC defined technology specifications, identified vendors, and conducted analysis to estimate energy and cost savings potential. The project team then developed schedules for technology procurement processes and scheduled for installation at all selected demonstration sites. The project team worked with Princeton University and DOE to develop an approach to verify energy savings achieved through measurement and verification (M&V) 2.0 methods. Princeton University initiated open bids to procure the necessary materials and installation contractors. Bid results came back higher than estimates due to a couple of factors – lack of familiarity of the bidders with the proposed technologies and lack of local trained installers to execute the installation of these new measures. Due to the higher bids, projects no longer met the internal cost-effectiveness criteria used by Princeton to proceed with procurement of the full suite of technologies as proposed in ISOP. Princeton had already procured parts of the ISOP package as part of a campus-wide initiative for FDD and lighting retrofits, but with the higher costs for other ISOP components, Princeton could no longer commit to the full ISOP package on the selected sites. Based on this, the team reached the Go/No-Go decision point, where they decided not to proceed with the project. Princeton is separately installing portions of the ISOP package where they individually meet Princeton’s payback criteria but on a different schedule than would have been needed for the DOE ISOP project. The team has learned several lessons from project progress in the first budget period. The team will utilize these lessons in future projects, as should any team which proceeds with a project around the ISOP technology. The first lesson is that more information about the proposed sites is required earlier in the process (perhaps even at the proposal stage) in order to have a successful demonstration. Technical details not evident earlier in the process (such as the TLED limitations for ALCS) can derail project execution. The second lesson is that pricing of emerging technologies is highly variable due to lack of familiarity of local installers and distributor with the proposed technologies as well as alternate bids using products they were more familiar with, but that cost more than the ones proposed by TRC. Finally, the last major lesson is that the host site’s internal project criteria is of critical importance. Based on these higher installed costs and lack of an informed installer base for the products proposed for this project, the project does not meet Princeton’s simple payback goals of five years.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2017

Performance Assessment of a New Gamma Spectroscopy Toolkit: Peak Doctor and the Spectral Nondestructive Assay Platform (SNAP) - 17397

High resolution gamma spectroscopy (HRGS) is a widely used technique for non-destructive characterization of nuclear materials, and assay of radioactive waste. The ability to accurately evaluate raw spectral data is an important step in producing high-quality results. A spectral analysis application known as Peak Doctor has been developed under a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) between LANL and Pajarito Scientific Corporation (PSC). The software has undergone several years of testing and validation by the Radioactive Waste Characterization Team of the LANL Waste Management Services Group (WM-SVS). PeakDoctor is designed to work with the Spectral Nondestructive Assay Platform (SNAP{sup TM}) to provide a complete HRGS analysis engine. SNAP{sup TM} performs model specific corrections for attenuation and geometry. These applications are the major components of a new toolkit designed primarily for portable far-field non-destructive assay. Peak Doctor performs a very accurate peak fit analysis with the goal of improving upon the capabilities of existing commercially available routines. It is designed to be user-configurable and can be customized to any given type of detector and any given type of spectrum. Peak Doctor was developed to resolve many of the inherent complexities in gamma ray spectra including overlapping peaks, complex multiplet regions, large step peaks, backscatter regions and Compton edges. Unlike most spectral analysis platforms, Peak Doctor does not rely on the energy calibration and detector resolution parameters that are saved by the operator in the spectrum file. Instead, key parameters are pre-defined for individual detectors. The software fits a continuum using a series of splines between a series of junctions or 'knots'. Fitting techniques are used to join the splines together to create a near-continuous multi-element curve. Optimizing the location of the knots is one of Peak Doctor's most powerful features. The knots are initially configured using a pre-defined list and are removed or added automatically during the fitting process. Knots are also created when new features are identified such as Step Peaks and Compton Edges. The user can also manually specify knots in order to improve the continuum fit. The initial fit is improved on by removing any outlier regions (which are converted to peaks) and the continuum fitting process is repeated. At this stage, an experienced user can work interactively with the fit by manually converting peak regions to continuum or vice versa. The final step is to fit a series of peaks above the continuum based on detector parameters. Single and multiplet peaks are then processed by either the tailing (piecewise) or non-tailing (Gaussian) Levenberg Marquardt non-linear peak fitting routine depending on the user defined selection. Only a rough knowledge of the detector characteristics (energy calibration and resolution) is required for the fitting process to proceed with good accuracy. Any peaks that are missed can be manually added by the user and will also be fitted. Discontinuities in the peak / continuum fit can be rapidly identified by reviewing the 'residuals scale' plot. For waste streams that are well characterized, it is often the case that routinely encountered spectra will have similar peaks and continuum features. For these cases a handy 'One Step' method is available that proceeds in an automated fashion without user interaction. Peak Doctor has been configured with a set of default spectrum types including plutonium / transuranic waste (including Weapons Grade Pu, Heat Source Pu, Am-241, Am-243 and Np-237), depleted or enriched uranium, nuclear power plant / intermediate level waste (with fission and activation products such as Cs-137 and Co-60) as well as Naturally Occurring Radioactive Materials (NORM). The user can easily add new spectrum types for specific waste streams or other types of radiological / special nuclear materials. The output from PeakDoctor (including net peak area, centroid energy and a list of minimum detectable activity levels at pre-defined regions) is used by SNAP{sup TM} to complete the data analysis process. Isotope activities are calculated using configurable template-driven geometry and attenuation correction methods. The software accounts for matrix and container wall effects, collimator / angular corrections, detector efficiency (based on calibration curves) and stand-off distance. SNAP{sup TM} uses published algorithms incorporating a series of decision points during its operation to allow the analyst to provide logical input to guide the software during the analysis of each unique spectrum. The Peak Doctor / SNAP{sup TM} toolkit has been extensively tested and validated under a variety of conditions using 'benchmark' reference spectra. Test scenarios reported include HPGe-based measurements of well characterized uranium and plutonium standards and radioactive sources with a variety of different geometries and matrix materials including surrogate drums and boxes. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Characterization of Plasma Protein Alterations in Pregnant and Postpartum Individuals Living With HIV to Support Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Model Development

Alterations in plasma protein concentrations in pregnant and postpartum individuals can influence antiretroviral (ARV) pharmacokinetics. Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models can serve to inform drug dosing decisions in understudied populations. However, development of such models requires quantitative physiological information (e.g., changes in plasma protein concentration) from the population of interest. Objective: To quantitatively describe the time-course of albumin and α1-acid glycoprotein (AAG) concentrations in pregnant and postpartum women living with HIV. Serum and plasma protein concentrations procured from the International Maternal Pediatric Adolescent AIDS Clinical Trial Protocol 1026s (P1026s) were analyzed using a generalized additive modeling approach. Separate non-parametric smoothing splines were fit to albumin and AAG concentrations as functions of gestational age or postpartum duration. The analysis included 871 and 757 serum albumin concentrations collected from 380 pregnant (~20 to 42 wks gestation) and 354 postpartum (0 to 46 wks postpartum) women, respectively. Thirty-six and 32 plasma AAG concentrations from 31 pregnant (~24 to 38 wks gestation) and 30 postpartum women (~2–13 wks postpartum), respectively, were available for analysis. Estimated mean albumin concentrations remained stable from 20 wks gestation to term (33.4 to 34.3 g/L); whereas, concentrations rapidly increased postpartum until stabilizing at ~42.3 g/L 15 wk after delivery. Estimated AAG concentrations slightly decreased from 24 wks gestation to term (53.6 and 44.9 mg/dL) while postpartum levels were elevated at two wks after delivery (126.1 mg/dL) and subsequently declined thereafter. Computational functions were developed to quantitatively communicate study results in a form that can be readily utilized for PBPK model development. By characterizing the trajectory of plasma protein concentrations in pregnant and postpartum women living with HIV, our analysis can increase confidence in PBPK model predictions for HIV antiretrovirals and better inform drug dosing decisions in this understudied population.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2023

Operational Forecasting Inundation Extents using REOF analysis (FIER) over Lower Mekong and its Economic Impact on Agriculture

In the Lower Mekong River Basin floodplains, rice cultivation is highly crucial for regional and global food security. However, prolonged flooding can pose damage to rice cultivation and other socio-economic aspects. Yet, there is no rapid operational inundation forecasting system that can help decision-makers proactively mitigate flood damages. Here, we integrated the so-called Forecasting Inundation Extents using Rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis (FIER) framework with an altimetry-based operational Mekong River level forecasting system and built an operational web application, FIER-Mekong, (https://fier-mekong.streamlit.app/) that generates daily skillful forecasted inundation extents (>70% of critical success index) and depths in about 3 and 30 s, respectively, with up to 18-day lead times. One of its applications, predicting flood-induced rice economic losses, is also presented. Had FIER-Mekong being adopted, we estimated that the rice damages, up to 87 and 53 million US dollars during the 2020 and 2021 harvest time, respectively, could have been avoided.

Chi-Hung Chang↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Supportability Concepts for Crewed Deep Space Exploration

Supportability—defined as the set of system characteristics that influence the logistics and support required to enable safe and effective operations—will be a much larger driver of mass, risk, and crew time for future human space exploration due to the more challenging mission context. For Mars, systems must operate in a logistically isolated environment for much longer durations than previous missions, which results in a higher probability of system failure and therefore an increased need for maintenance or contingency options. Mars missions also lack access to quick aborts, which increases the consequences of an unrecoverable system failure. Together, this higher likelihood and consequence of failure results in an increase in supportability-related risk. Supportability analysis is an important part of systems development that helps designers better understand the impacts of system and mission decisions on risk, mass, and crew time. The real-world processes that drive maintenance requirements and other supportability-related characteristics are probabilistic, and therefore they require different conceptual approaches and models than are used for more deterministic aspects of space systems. This paper provides an overview of supportability analysis, addresses key concepts, and provides examples of how supportability analysis can be incorporated into system development. Specifically, system supportability involves stochastic processes, and therefore must be evaluated using probabilistic models. These models can be used to perform sensitivity analysis even if system characteristics are not yet fully defined. Failure rates cannot be measured directly, but tests provide valuable data that can help refine those estimates. Human spaceflight architectures are complex, and exhibit coupled behavior that should be examined with integrated systems analysis that includes an assessment of supportability.

Supportability↗