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NASA NTRS1994

Comparison of PDF and Moment Closure Methods in the Modeling of Turbulent Reacting Flows

In modeling turbulent reactive flows, Probability Density Function (PDF) methods have an advantage over the more traditional moment closure schemes in that the PDF formulation treats the chemical reaction source terms exactly, while moment closure methods are required to model the mean reaction rate. The common model used is the laminar chemistry approximation, where the effects of turbulence on the reaction are assumed negligible. For flows with low turbulence levels and fast chemistry, the difference between the two methods can be expected to be small. However for flows with finite rate chemistry and high turbulence levels, significant errors can be expected in the moment closure method. In this paper, the ability of the PDF method and the moment closure scheme to accurately model a turbulent reacting flow is tested. To accomplish this, both schemes were used to model a CO/H2/N2- air piloted diffusion flame near extinction. Identical thermochemistry, turbulence models, initial conditions and boundary conditions are employed to ensure a consistent comparison can be made. The results of the two methods are compared to experimental data as well as to each other. The comparison reveals that the PDF method provides good agreement with the experimental data, while the moment closure scheme incorrectly shows a broad, laminar-like flame structure.

Norris, Andrew T.↗

NASA NTRS1960

Oxidation Behavior of Binary Niobium Alloys

This investigation concludes a study to determine the effects of up to 25 atomic percent of 55 alloying additions on the oxidation characteristics of niobium. The alloys were evaluated by oxidizing in an air atmosphere for 4 hours at 1000 C and 2 hours at 1200 C. Titanium and chromium improved oxidation resistance at both evaluation conditions. Vanadium and aluminum improved oxidation resistance at 1000 C, even though the V scale tended to liquefy and the Al specimens became brittle and the scale powdery. Copper, cobalt, iron, and iridium improved oxidation resistance at 1200 C. Other investigations report tungsten and molybdenum are protective up to about 1000 C, and tantalum at 1100 C. The most important factor influencing the rate of oxidation was the ion size of the alloy additions. Ions slightly smaller than the Nb(5+) ion are soluble in the oxide lattice and tend to lower the compressive stresses in the bulk scale that lead to cracking. The solubility of the alloying addition also depends on the valence to some extent. All of the elements mentioned that improve the oxidation resistance of Nb fit this size criterion with the possible exception of Al, whose extremely small size in large concentrations would probably lead to the formation of a powdery scale. Maintenance of a crack-free bulk scale for as long as possible may contribute to the formation of a dark subscale that ultimately is rate- controlling in the oxidation process. The platinum-group metals, especially Ir, appear to protect by entrapment of the finely dispersed alloying element by the incoming Nb2O5 metal-oxide interface. This inert metallic Ir when alloyed in a sufficient amount with Yb appears to give a ductile phase dispersed in the brittle oxide. This scale would then flow more easily to relieve the large compressive stresses to delay cracking. Complex oxide formation (which both Ti and Zr tend to initiate) and valence effects, which probably change the vacancy concentration in the scale, are masked by the overriding tendency for a porous scale.

Barrett, Charles A.↗

NASA NTRS2000

ISS Utilization and Countermeasure Validation: Implementing the Critical Path Roadmap to Reduce Uncertainties of Extended Human Spaceflight Expeditions

Human exploration of space requires the ability to understand and mitigate risks to crews exposed to the conditions associated with such missions. This becomes a greater imperative as we prepare for interplanetary expeditions involving humans who will be subjected to long transit periods in microgravity as they travel to a distant planet such as Mars, embark and live on the planet's surface for an extended time, and finally, return to the 1 g environment of Earth. We need to know, more definitively, what the human health, safety, and performance risks are, and how to prevent or counteract them throughout all phases of a long duration mission. The Johnson Space Center's Space and Life Sciences Directorate along with the National Space Biomedical Research Institute (NSBRI) have been engaged in a strategic planning effort that identifies the most critical risks confronting humans who will venture forth on such missions and the types of research and technology efforts required to mitigate and otherwise reduce the probability and/or severity of those risks. This paper describes the unique approach used to define, assess and prioritize the risks and presents the results of the assessment with an emphasis on the research and technology priorities that will help us to meet the challenge of long duration human spaceflight missions.

Leveton, Lauren B.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Comets as Messengers from the Early Solar System - Emerging Insights on Delivery of Water, Nitriles, and Organics to Earth

The question of exogenous delivery of water and organics to Earth and other young planets is of critical importance for understanding the origin of Earth's volatiles, and for assessing the possible existence of exo-planets similar to Earth. Viewed from a cosmic perspective, Earth is a dry planet, yet its oceans are enriched in deuterium by a large factor relative to nebular hydrogen and analogous isotopic enrichments in atmospheric nitrogen and noble gases are also seen. Why is this so? What are the implications for Mars? For icy Worlds in our Planetary System? For the existence of Earth-like exoplanets? An exogenous (vs. outgassed) origin for Earth's atmosphere is implied, and intense debate on the relative contributions of comets and asteroids continues - renewed by fresh models for dynamical transport in the protoplanetary disk, by revelations on the nature and diversity of volatile and rocky material within comets, and by the discovery of ocean-like water in a comet from the Kuiper Belt (cf., Mumma & Charnley 2011). Assessing the creation of conditions favorable to the emergence and sustenance of life depends critically on knowledge of the nature of the impacting bodies. Active comets have long been grouped according to their orbital properties, and this has proven useful for identifying the reservoir from which a given comet emerged (OC, KB) (Levison 1996). However, it is now clear that icy bodies were scattered into each reservoir from a range of nebular distances, and the comet populations in today's reservoirs thus share origins that are (in part) common. Comets from the Oort Cloud and Kuiper Disk reservoirs should have diverse composition, resulting from strong gradients in temperature and chemistry in the proto-planetary disk, coupled with dynamical models of early radial transport and mixing with later dispersion of the final cometary nuclei into the long-term storage reservoirs. The inclusion of material from the natal interstellar cloud is probable, for comets formed in the outer solar system.

Mumma, Michael J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Interstellar grains in primitive meteorites - Diamond, silicon carbide, and graphite

Primitive meteorites contain a few parts per million (ppm) of pristine interstellar grains that provide information on nuclear and chemical processes in stars. Their interstellar origin is proven by highly anomalous isotopic ratios, varying more than 1000-fold for elements such as C and N. Most grains isolated thus far are stable only under highly reducing conditions (C/O greater than 1), and apparently are 'stardust' formed in stellar atmospheres. Microdiamonds, of median size about 10 A, are most abundant (about 400-1800 ppm) but least understood. They contain anomalous noble gases including Xe-HL, which shows the signature of the r- and p-processes. Silicon carbide, of grain size 0.2-10 microns and abundance about 6 ppm, shows the signature of the s-process and apparently comes mainly from red giant carbon (AGB) stars of 1-3 solar masses. Some grains appear to be not less than 10 exp 9 a older than the solar system. Graphite spherules of grain size 0.8-7 microns and abundance less than 2 ppm contain highly anomalous C and noble gases, as well as large amounts of fossil Mg-26 from the decay of extinct Al-26. They seem to come from at least three sources, probably AGB stars, novae, and Wolf-Rayet stars.

Anders, Edward↗

NASA NTRS1992

Damage areas due to impact craters on LDEF aluminum panels

Because of its exposure time and total exposed surface area, the LDEF provides a unique opportunity to analyze the effects of the natural and man-made particle populations in low earth orbit (LEO). This study concentrated on collecting and analyzing measurements of impact craters from seven painted aluminum surfaces at different locations on the satellite. These data are being used to: (1) update the current theoretical micrometeoroid and debris models for LEO; (2) characterize the effects of the LEO micrometeoroid and debris environment of satellite components and designs; (3) help assess the probability of collision between spacecraft in LEO and already resident debris and the survivability of those spacecraft that must travel through, or reside in, LEO; and (4) help define and evaluate future debris mitigation and disposal methods. Measurements were collected from one aluminum experiment tray cover (Bay C-12), two aluminum grapple plates (Bays C-01, C-10), and four aluminum experiment sun-shields (Bay E-09), all of which were coated with thermal paint. These measurements were taken at the Facility for Optical Interpretation of Large Surfaces (FOILS) Lab at JSC. Virtually all features greater than 0.2 mm in diameter possessed a spall zone in which all of the paint was removed from the aluminum surface, and which varied in size from 2-5 crater diameters. The actual craters vary from central pits without raised rims to morphologies more typical of craters formed in aluminum under hypervelocity impact conditions for larger features. Most craters exhibit a shock zone that varies in size from approximately 1-20 crater diameters. In general, only the outermost layer of paint was affected by this impact-related phenomenon, with several impacts possessing ridge-like structures encircling the area in which this outer-most paint layer was removed. Overall, there were no noticeable penetrations or bulges on the underside of the trays. One tray from the E-09 bay exhibited a spallation zone on the backside, approximately equal in size to that on the front side. Results from this study demonstrate that the impact damaged areas extend far beyond the actual craters in coated or painted surfaces. While the cratering damaged much greater than 1 percent of the total surface area, the total impact damage area exceeded 3 percent.

Coombs, Cassandra R.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Image-Based Empirical Modeling of the Plasmasphere

A new suite of empirical models of plasmaspheric plasma based on remote, global images from the IMAGE EUV instrument is proposed for development. The purpose of these empirical models is to establish the statistical properties of the plasmasphere as a function of conditions. This suite of models will mark the first time the plasmaspheric plume is included in an empirical model. Development of these empirical plasmaspheric models will support synoptic studies (such as for wave propagation and growth, energetic particle loss through collisions and dust transport as influenced by charging) and serves as a benchmark against which physical models can be tested. The ability to know that a specific global density distribution occurs in response to specific magnetospheric and solar wind factors is a huge advantage over all previous in-situ based empirical models. The consequence of creating these new plasmaspheric models will be to provide much higher fidelity and much richer quantitative descriptions of the statistical properties of plasmaspheric plasma in the inner magnetosphere, whether that plasma is in the main body of the plasmasphere, nearby during recovery or in the plasmaspheric plume. Model products to be presented include statistical probabilities for being in the plasmasphere, near thermal He+ density boundaries and the complexity of its spatial structure.

Adrian, Mark L.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Exploring Mars for Evidence of Habitable Environments and Life

The climate of Mars has been more similar to that of Earth than has the climate of any other planet in our Solar System. But Mars still provides a valuable alternative example of how planetary processes and environments can affect the potential presence of life elsewhere. For example, although Mars also differentiated very early into a core, mantle and crust, it then evolved mostly if not completely without plate tectonics and has lost most of its early atmosphere. The Martian crust has been more stable than that of Earth, thus it has probably preserved a more complete record of its earliest history. Orbital observations determined that near-surface water was once pervasive. Orbiters have identified the following diverse aqueous sedimentary deposits: layered phyllosilicates, phyllosilicates in intracrater fans, plains sediments potentially harboring evaporitic minerals, deep phyllosilicates, carbonate-bearing deposits, intracrater clay-sulfate deposits, Meridiani-type layered deposits, valles-type layered deposits, hydrated silica-bearing deposits, and gypsum plains. These features, together with evidence of more vigorous past geologic activity, indicate that early climates were wetter and perhaps also somewhat warmer. The denser atmosphere that was required for liquid water to be stable on the surface also provided more substantial protection from radiation. Whereas ancient climates might have favored habitable environments at least in some localities, clearly much of the Martian surface for most of its history has been markedly less favorable for life. The combination of dry conditions, oxidizing surface environments and typically low rates of sedimentation are not conducive to the preservation of evidence of ancient environments and any biota. Thus a strategy is required whereby candidate sites are first identified and then characterized for their potential to preserve evidence of past habitable environments. Rovers are then sent to explore the most promising candidates. The Mars Exploration Rover (MER) Opportunity revealed that water once flowed to the surface across the vast Meridiani plains, creating saline lakes whose waters were roiled by ancient winds that also sculptured their salt deposits into sand dunes. Opportunity then drove more than 30 km to explore even older deposits on a crater rim. MER Spirit found evidence that thermal waters (heated by volcanism or by impacts?) altered rocks to create sulfate salts, and siliceous sinters. These discoveries indicate that an early hydrological cycle apparently sustained precipitation, streams and lakes. Liquid water participated in rock weathering reactions, such as iron and sulfur oxidation, that created distinctive weathering regimes. Volcanism, impacts, groundwater and ice interacted at least locally. Redox chemical energy from volcanism, hydrothermal activity and weathering of crustal materials would have been available for any life. Thus conditions might have supported life in the past, at least locally. The main objective of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Curiosity rover is to determine the extent to which Gale crater hosted environments capable of supporting microbial life. The rover has already found stream gravels as well as sediments that might have been deposited in an ancient lake. The rover is now traversing to Mt. Sharp, a 5 km-high mound that is located on the crater floor and that exhibits layered sedimentary rocks having diverse minerals (sulfates and clays) that apparently formed in the presence of liquid water. This rock sequence was deposited over an extended time period in diverse potentially habitable watery environments. Curiosity is poised to characterize a a well-preserved rock record of hundreds of millions of years of diverse environments and profound climate change.

layered phyllosilicates↗

NASA NTRS1999

Development of GENOA Progressive Failure Parallel Processing Software Systems

A capability consisting of software development and experimental techniques has been developed and is described. The capability is integrated into GENOA-PFA to model polymer matrix composite (PMC) structures. The capability considers the physics and mechanics of composite materials and structure by integration of a hierarchical multilevel macro-scale (lamina, laminate, and structure) and micro scale (fiber, matrix, and interface) simulation analyses. The modeling involves (1) ply layering methodology utilizing FEM elements with through-the-thickness representation, (2) simulation of effects of material defects and conditions (e.g., voids, fiber waviness, and residual stress) on global static and cyclic fatigue strengths, (3) including material nonlinearities (by updating properties periodically) and geometrical nonlinearities (by Lagrangian updating), (4) simulating crack initiation. and growth to failure under static, cyclic, creep, and impact loads. (5) progressive fracture analysis to determine durability and damage tolerance. (6) identifying the percent contribution of various possible composite failure modes involved in critical damage events. and (7) determining sensitivities of failure modes to design parameters (e.g., fiber volume fraction, ply thickness, fiber orientation. and adhesive-bond thickness). GENOA-PFA progressive failure analysis is now ready for use to investigate the effects on structural responses to PMC material degradation from damage induced by static, cyclic (fatigue). creep, and impact loading in 2D/3D PMC structures subjected to hygrothermal environments. Its use will significantly facilitate targeting design parameter changes that will be most effective in reducing the probability of a given failure mode occurring.

Abdi, Frank↗

NASA NTRS2000

Condition Monitoring for Helicopter Data

In this paper the classical "Westland" set of empirical accelerometer helicopter data is analyzed with the aim of condition monitoring for diagnostic purposes. The goal is to determine features for failure events from these data, via a proprietary signal processing toolbox, and to weigh these according to a variety of classification algorithms. As regards signal processing, it appears that the autoregressive (AR) coefficients from a simple linear model encapsulate a great deal of information in a relatively few measurements; it has also been found that augmentation of these by harmonic and other parameters can improve classification significantly. As regards classification, several techniques have been explored, among these restricted Coulomb energy (RCE) networks, learning vector quantization (LVQ), Gaussian mixture classifiers and decision trees. A problem with these approaches, and in common with many classification paradigms, is that augmentation of the feature dimension can degrade classification ability. Thus, we also introduce the Bayesian data reduction algorithm (BDRA), which imposes a Dirichlet prior on training data and is thus able to quantify probability of error in an exact manner, such that features may be discarded or coarsened appropriately.

Wen, Fang↗

NASA NTRS2013

Probabilistic Modeling of the Renal Stone Formation Module

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic tool, used in mission planning decision making and medical systems risk assessments. The IMM project maintains a database of over 80 medical conditions that could occur during a spaceflight, documenting an incidence rate and end case scenarios for each. In some cases, where observational data are insufficient to adequately define the inflight medical risk, the IMM utilizes external probabilistic modules to model and estimate the event likelihoods. One such medical event of interest is an unpassed renal stone. Due to a high salt diet and high concentrations of calcium in the blood (due to bone depletion caused by unloading in the microgravity environment) astronauts are at a considerable elevated risk for developing renal calculi (nephrolithiasis) while in space. Lack of observed incidences of nephrolithiasis has led HRP to initiate the development of the Renal Stone Formation Module (RSFM) to create a probabilistic simulator capable of estimating the likelihood of symptomatic renal stone presentation in astronauts on exploration missions. The model consists of two major parts. The first is the probabilistic component, which utilizes probability distributions to assess the range of urine electrolyte parameters and a multivariate regression to transform estimated crystal density and size distributions to the likelihood of the presentation of nephrolithiasis symptoms. The second is a deterministic physical and chemical model of renal stone growth in the kidney developed by Kassemi et al. The probabilistic component of the renal stone model couples the input probability distributions describing the urine chemistry, astronaut physiology, and system parameters with the physical and chemical outputs and inputs to the deterministic stone growth model. These two parts of the model are necessary to capture the uncertainty in the likelihood estimate. The model will be driven by Monte Carlo simulations, continuously randomly sampling the probability distributions of the electrolyte concentrations and system parameters that are inputs into the deterministic model. The total urine chemistry concentrations are used to determine the urine chemistry activity using the Joint Expert Speciation System (JESS), a biochemistry model. Information used from JESS is then fed into the deterministic growth model. Outputs from JESS and the deterministic model are passed back to the probabilistic model where a multivariate regression is used to assess the likelihood of a stone forming and the likelihood of a stone requiring clinical intervention. The parameters used to determine to quantify these risks include: relative supersaturation (RS) of calcium oxalate, citrate/calcium ratio, crystal number density, total urine volume, pH, magnesium excretion, maximum stone width, and ureteral location. Methods and Validation: The RSFM is designed to perform a Monte Carlo simulation to generate probability distributions of clinically significant renal stones, as well as provide an associated uncertainty in the estimate. Initially, early versions will be used to test integration of the components and assess component validation and verification (V&V), with later versions used to address questions regarding design reference mission scenarios. Once integrated with the deterministic component, the credibility assessment of the integrated model will follow NASA STD 7009 requirements.

kidney stones↗

NASA NTRS2015

Life Beyond the Planet of Origin and Implications for the Search for Life on Mars

Outer space is vast, cold, devoid of matter, radiation filled with essentially no gravity. These factors present an environmental challenge for any form of life. Earth's biosphere has evolved for more than 3 billion years shielded from the hostile environment of outer space by the protective blanket of the atmosphere and magnetosphere. Space is a nutritional wasteland with no liquid water and readily available organic carbon. Moving beyond a life's planet of origin requires a means for transport, the ability to withstand transport, and the ability to colonize, thrive and ultimately evolve in the new environment. Can life survive beyond its home planet? The key to answering this question is to identify organisms that first have the ability to withstand space radiation, space vacuum desiccation and time in transit, and second the ability to grow in an alien environment. Within the last 60 years space technology allowed us to transport life beyond Earth's protective shield so we may study, in situ, their responses to selected conditions of space. To date a variety of microbes ranging from viruses, to Bacteria, to Archaea, to Eukarya have been tested in the space environment. Most died instantly, but not all. These studies revealed that ultraviolet radiation is the near-term lethal agent, while hard radiation is the long-term lethal agent when the organism is shielded from ultraviolet radiation. In fact, bacterial spores, halophilic cyanobacteria and Archaea as well as some lichens survive very well if protected from ultraviolet radiation [1]. Some microbes, then, may be able to survive the trip in outer space to Mars on a spacecraft or in a meteorite. Once on Mars can a terrestrial microbe survive? Although the conditions on Mars are not as harsh as those in space, they are not hospitable for a terrestrial microbe. Studies, however, have shown that certain microbes that can survive in space for several years may also be able to survive on Mars if protected from ultraviolet radiation [1]. Laboratory simulation experiments using a mock-up of the Phoenix lander have shown that microbes transported to the surface of Mars on a spacecraft come off the spacecraft and mix into the Martian regolith [2]. Additionally, studies simulating Martian dust storms demonstrate that microbes can survive in the Martian wind blown dust and be scattered across the Martian surface away from the spacecraft. Would these microbes that may survive on Mars metabolize and propagate? Growth requires liquid water, a carbon source and an energy source. Survival on Mars also requires protection from ultraviolet radiation. In the cold, dry environment of Mars the probability of microbial metabolism and growth at or just beneath the surface is extremely low. Although the probability is low, Mars may be contaminated with potentially live terrestrial organisms. In light of that statistic we must be extremely diligent and cautious in our search for Martian life. If we are not cautious we may find life on Mars and it may be a contaminant from Earth.

Survival in Space↗

NASA NTRS1991

Effects of spaceflight on the proliferation of jejunal mucosal cells

The purpose of this project was to test the hypothesis that the generalized, whole body decrease in synthetic activity due to microgravity conditions encountered during spaceflight would be demonstrable in cells and tissues characterized by a rapid rate of turnover. Jejunal mucosal cells were chosen as a model since these cells are among the most rapidly proliferating in the body. Accordingly, the percentage of mitotic cells present in the crypts of Lieberkuhn in each of 5 rats flown on the COSMOS 2044 mission were compared to the percentage of mitotic cells present in the crypts in rats included in each of 3 ground control groups (i.e., vivarium, synchronous and caudal-elevated). No significant difference (p greater than .05) was detected in mitotic indices between the flight and vivarium group. Although the ability of jejunal mucosal cells to divide by mitosis was not impaired in flight group, there was, however, a reduction in the length of villi and depth of crypts. The concommitant reduction in villus length and crypth depth in the flight group probably reflects changes in connective tissue components within the core of villi.

Phillips, Robert W.↗

NASA NTRS1994

High-energy astrophysics: A theoretical analysis of thermal radiation from neutron stars

The unambiguous detection of thermal radiation from the surface of a cooling neutron star was one of the most anxiously awaited results in neutron star physics. This particular Holy Grail was found by Halpern and Holt, who used ROSAT to detect pulsed X-rays from the gamma-ray source Geminga and demonstrate that it was a neutron star, probably a radio pulsar beamed away from us. At an age of approximately 3.4 x 10(exp 5) years, Geminga is in the photon cooling era. Its surface temperature of 5.2 x 10(exp 5) K can be explained within the contexts of both the slow and fast cooling scenarios. In the slow cooling scenario, the surface temperature is too high unless the specific heat of the interior is reduced by extensive baryon pairing. In the fast cooling scenario, the surface temperature will be much too low unless the fast neutrino cooling is shut off by baryon pairing. Two other pulsars, PSR 0656+14 and PSR 1055-52, have also been detected in thermal X-rays by ROSAT. They are also in the photon cooling era. All of this research's neutron star cooling models to date have used the unmagnetized effective temperature-interior temperature relation for the outer boundary condition. Models are being improved by using published magnetic envelope calculations and assumed geometried for the surface magnetic field to determine local interior temperature-emitted flux relations for the surface of the star.

Applegate, James H.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Experiment K-7-17: Effects of Spaceflight on the Proliferation of Jejunal Mucosal Cells

Phillips, R. W.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Multiple Hub Network Choice in the Liberalized European Market

A key question that so far has received relatively little attention in the germane literature is that of the changes at various airports as a result of the EU liberalization policies. That is, presently, most major European airports still benefit from the so-called home-carrier phenomenon where the country's publicly or semi-publicly owned carrier uses the country's main airport as its gateway hub and, consequently, the home-carrier is also the principal user of this airport (in terms of proportion of total aircraft movements, number of passengers transported, connections, slots ownership, etc.). The country's main airport has substantially benefited from these monopoly conditions of airline captivity, strongly determined by the bilateral system of international air transport regulation. Therefore, European major airports were used to operate in essentially different markets, compared to the increasingly competitive markets of their home based carriers. This partly explains relative stability of transport volumes and financial results of European major airports compared to the relatively volatile financial results of most European national airlines. However, the liberalization of European aviation is likely to change this situation. Market access is open now to all community carriers, i.e. carriers with majority ownership and effective control in the hands of EU citizens. Ticket prices are free, governments can only intervene in case of dumping or excessive pricing. A community airline can choose its seat in any of the 15 member states. Licensing procedures are harmonized between member states. In the last few months community carriers have had unrestricted route access within the EU. Most probably this development will be extended to countries inside and outside Europe. Last year the European Commission got the mandate to start negotiations with 10 other European countries. In the meantime the EC has also started negotiations with the USA on so-called soft rights. In the meantime, open skies agreements have been concluded between the USA and most of the EU member states to facilitate strategic alliances between airlines of the states involved. As a result of this on-going liberalization the model of the single 'national' carrier using the national home base as its single hub for the designated third, fourth and sixth freedom operations will stepwise disappear. Within the EU the concept of the national carrier has already been replaced by that of the community carrier. State ownership in more and more European carriers is reduced. On the longer run mergers or even bankruptcy will further undermine the "single national carrier - single national hub" model in Europe. In the meantime, strategic alliances between national carriers in Europe will already reduce the airlines' loyalty to a single airport. Profit maximization and accountability to share holders will supersede the loyalty of these newly emerging alliances, probably looking for the opportunities of a multiple hub network to adequately cover the whole European market. As a consequence, some European airports might see a substantial decline in arriving, departing and transfer traffic, thus in revenues and financial solvency, as well as in their connection to other inter-continental and intra-European destinations. At the same time, other airports might realize a significant increase in traffic as they will be sought after by the profit maximizing airlines as their major gateway hubs. Which will be the losing airports and which will be the winning ones? Can airports anticipate the actions of airlines in deregulated markets and utilize policies which will improve their relative position? If so, what should be these anticipatory policies? These questions become the more urgent, since an increasing number of major European airports will be privatized in the near future. Although increasing airport congestion in Europe will also be reflected in a growing demand pressure for airport slots, this is not a guarantee for a stable transport volume growth of individual airports. The more volatile the market is, the more vulnerable privatized airports become. Therefore, the main issue of this study is the analysis of the opportunities of major European airports to become a central hub as a result of the network choices made by the new European airlines in a completely liberalized market. In a previous study (Berechman and de Wit, 1996), we already explored the potential of Amsterdam Airport Schiphol of becoming the major West-European hub, once European aviation markets are deregulated. A major hindrance of that study was the use of a single hub-and-spoke network. For example that model could not analyze the viability of different combinations of European hubs within a multiple hub network of alternative airline alliances. In this study, we have formulated the model of a multi-hub network where two West-European airports are used for inter-continental and intra-European travel to enable a more realistic analysis of hub choice. Like the previous one also this multi-hub model is primarily used to assess the potential ability of Amsterdam Airport Schiphol for becoming a major West-European hub. Thus, in particular, the policy tests focus on this airport in a double hub network.

Berechman, Joseph↗

NASA NTRS1988

Carbon dioxide catastrophes: Past and future menace

Carbon dioxide is important in its role as coupler of the terrestrial biosphere to inorganic chemical processes and as the principal greenhouse gas controlling Earth's surface temperature. The hypothesis that atmospheric CO2 levels have diminished with time, with the resulting cooling effect offsetting an increase in the solar constant, seems firmly established, and it is shown that feedback mechanisms exist which can maintain the terrestrial surface in a relatively narrow temperature range over geological time. Of the factors involved in such CO2 variation, the oceanic reservoir appears the most important. Surface waters are probably in approximate equilibrium with regard to CO2 exchange with the ambient atmosphere in most regions, but data from deep-ocean water sampling indicates that such waters are somewhat undersaturated in the sense that they would tend to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere if brought to the surface without change in composition or temperature. If major impacts into the ocean can result in loss of a substantial portion of the atmospheric CO2 reservoir, then any such future event could imperil the continuation of most higher forms of life on Earth. The most likely candidate for an inverse Nyos global event in previous Earth history is the Cretaceous-Tertiary terminal extinction event. The Cretaceous was characterized by warm, equable temperatures presumably indicative of relatively high CO2 levels and an intense greenhouse heating. Cooling of the oceans in absence of massive transfer of CO2 to the oceanic reservoir in itself would promote a condition of CO2 undersaturation in abyssal waters, and this is made even more extreme by the pattern of ocean water circulation. It is possible to envision a situation in which deep ocean waters were at least occasionally profoundly undersaturated with regard to CO2. Turnover of a major fraction of such an ocean would then remove, on a very short time scale, as much as 90 percent of the atmospheric CO2 inventory.

Baur, Mario E.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Integrated Medical Model Project - Overview and Summary of Historical Application

Introduction: The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project represents one aspect of NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) to quantitatively assess medical risks to astronauts for existing operational missions as well as missions associated with future exploration and commercial space flight ventures. The IMM takes a probabilistic approach to assessing the likelihood and specific outcomes of one hundred medical conditions within the envelope of accepted space flight standards of care over a selectable range of mission capabilities. A specially developed Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) maintains evidence-based, organizational knowledge across a variety of data sources. Since becoming operational in 2011, version 3.0 of the IMM, the supporting iMED, and the expertise of the IMM project team have contributed to a wide range of decision and informational processes for the space medical and human research community. This presentation provides an overview of the IMM conceptual architecture and range of application through examples of actual space flight community questions posed to the IMM project. Methods: Figure 1 [see document] illustrates the IMM modeling system and scenario process. As illustrated, the IMM computational architecture is based on Probabilistic Risk Assessment techniques. Nineteen assumptions and limitations define the IMM application domain. Scenario definitions include crew medical attributes and mission specific details. The IMM forecasts probabilities of loss of crew life (LOCL), evacuation (EVAC), quality time lost during the mission, number of medical resources utilized and the number and type of medical events by combining scenario information with in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical information stored in the iMED. In addition, the metrics provide the integrated information necessary to estimate optimized in-flight medical kit contents under constraints of mass and volume or acceptable level of mission risk. Results and Conclusions: Historically, IMM simulations support Science and Technology planning, Exploration mission planning, and ISS program operations by supplying simulation support, iMED data information, and subject matter expertise to Crew Health and Safety and the HRP. Upcoming release of IMM version 4.0 seeks to provide enhanced functionality to increase the quality of risk decisions made using the IMM through a more accurate representation of the real world system.

Myers, J.↗