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At least 1,441 records · Page 80
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Assessing Tropical Cyclones’ Contribution to Precipitation over the Eastern United States and Sensitivity to the Variable-Resolution Domain Extent

Tropical cyclones (TCs) can subject an area to heavy precipitation for many hours, or even days, worsening the risk of flooding, which creates dangerous conditions for residents of the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts. To study the representation of TC-related precipitation over the eastern United States in current-generation global climate models, a novel analysis methodology is developed to track TCs and extract their associated precipitation using an estimate of their dynamical outer size. This methodology is applied to three variable-resolution (VR) configurations of the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), with high-resolution domains over the North Atlantic and one low-resolution conventional configuration, as well as to a combination of reanalysis and observational precipitation data. Metrics and diagnostics such as TC counts, intensities, outer storm sizes, and annual mean total and extreme precipitation are compared between the CAM5 simulations and reanalysis/observations. The high-resolution VR configurations outperform the global low-resolution configuration for all variables in the North Atlantic. Realistic TC intensities are produced by the VR configurations. The total North Atlantic TC counts are lower than observations but better than reanalysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Future Climate Change Under SSP Emission Scenarios with GISS-E2.1

This paper presents the response to anthropogenic forcing in the GISS-E2.1 climate models for the 21st century Shared Socioeconomic Pathways emission scenarios within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The experiments were performed using an updated and improved version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes two different versions for atmospheric composition: A non-interactive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect and the One-Moment Aerosol model (OMA) version with fully interactive aerosols which includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. The effective climate sensitivities are 3.0°C and 2.9°C for the NINT and OMA models, respectively. Each atmospheric version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: The GISS ocean model (E2.1-G) and HYCOM (E2.1-H). We describe the global mean responses for all future scenarios and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation for four of the marker scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5. By 2100, global mean warming ranges from 1.5°C to 5.2°C relative to 1,850–1,880 mean temperature. Two high-mitigation scenarios SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 limit the surface warming to below 2°C by the end of the 21st century, except for the NINT E2.1-H model that simulates 2.2°C of surface warming. For the high emission scenario SSP5-8.5, the range is 4.6–5.2°C at 2100. Due to about 15% larger effective climate sensitivity and stronger transient climate response in both NINT and OMA CMIP6 models compared to CMIP5 versions, there is a stronger warming by 2100 in the SSP emission scenarios than in the comparable Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios in CMIP5. Changes in sea ice area are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with the largest sea ice area decreases occurring during September in the Northern Hemisphere in both E2.1-G (−1.21 × 106 km2/°C) and E2.1-H models (−0.94 × 106 km2/°C). Both coupled models project decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. The largest decrease of 56%–65% in the 21st century overturning stream function is produced in the warmest scenario SSP5-8.5 in the E2.1-G model, comparable to the reduction in the corresponding CMIP5 GISS-E2 RCP8.5 simulation. Both low-end scenarios SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 also simulate substantial reductions of the overturning (9%–37%) with slow recovery of about 10% by the end of the 21st century (relative to the maximum decrease at the middle of the 21st century).

climate models↗
NASA NTRS2013

Impacts of Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling on Southern Hemisphere Climate Change

Climate in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) has undergone significant changes in recent decades. These changes are closely linked to the shift of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) towards its positive polarity, which is driven primarily by Antarctic ozone depletion. There is growing evidence that Antarctic ozone depletion has significant impacts on Southern Ocean circulation change. However, it is poorly understood whether and how ocean feedback might impact the SAM and climate change in the SH atmosphere. This outstanding science question is investigated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Chemistry Climate Model(GEOS-AOCCM).We perform ensemble simulations of the recent past (1960-2010) with and without the interactive ocean. For simulations without the interactive ocean, we use sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations produced by the interactive ocean simulations. The differences between these two ensemble simulations quantify the effects of atmosphere-ocean coupling. We will investigate the impacts of atmosphere-ocean coupling on stratospheric processes such as Antarctic ozone depletion and Antarctic polar vortex breakup. We will address whether ocean feedback affects Rossby wave generation in the troposphere and wave propagation into the stratosphere. Another focuson this study is to assess how ocean feedback might affect the tropospheric SAM response to Antarctic ozone depletion

Chemistry-Climate Modeling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Mean State Cloud Properties in the Simple Cloud‐Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM)

Accurately simulating clouds remains a key challenge in global climate models, primarily because cloud formation involves sub-grid processes that are parameterized and crudely represented in models. This study examines the performance of DOE's Simple Cloud-Resolving Energy Exascale Earth System (E3SM) Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) in simulating cloud properties and their spatio-temporal distribution by comparing against satellite observations. Two horizontal resolutions of SCREAM (3 and 12 km) are examined, and both depict a realistic spatial structure of mean-state cloud cover but underestimate its global mean magnitude. SCREAM 3 km reasonably reproduces the distribution of mean-state cloud properties across various cloud optical thickness and cloud-top pressure regimes, with performance comparable to CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble and marginally outperforming SCREAM 12 km. Still, SCREAM 3 km tends to underpredict low clouds and optically thin clouds, highlighting the need for continued improvement in representing unresolved processes. This study provides a basis for confidence in the representation of clouds in SCREAM, as simulating mean-state clouds is a necessary prerequisite for trusting its cloud responses to changes in aerosols and greenhouse gases.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

Examining Cloud Feedback Components in the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM)

Cloud feedback remains the main source of uncertainty in climate sensitivity estimated by global climate models (GCMs), largely because subgrid cloud responses are parameterized in GCMs due to their coarse resolution. Here, this study examines cloud feedback in the global 3.25-km Simple Cloud-Resolving Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model (SCREAM 3 km) through a pair of 1-yr atmosphere-only simulations with control and +4-K sea surface temperature perturbations. SCREAM 3 km produces a positive cloud feedback that falls within but at the upper end of the range of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) models and expert judgment. The positive cloud feedback arises from positive contributions from both high- and low-level clouds, with increases in high-cloud altitude and decreases in low-cloud amount and optical depth playing key roles. The stronger-than-CMIP-average feedback is mainly attributable to the high-cloud altitude feedback, owing to cloud tops rising nearly isothermally in SCREAM 3 km. The positive low-cloud amount feedback is weaker in SCREAM than in GCMs because estimated inversion strength (EIS) increases more dramatically with warming. A coarser 12-km resolution version of SCREAM exhibits a weaker positive cloud feedback than SCREAM 3 km, mainly because its low-cloud-radiative flux is more sensitive to EIS, leading to a stronger negative low-cloud amount feedback. With this process-level assessment of cloud feedback, this study reveals where SCREAM aligns with and diverges from conventional GCMs and expert assessment, providing insights to inform further model improvement and future expert assessment.

Cloud radiative effects↗
NASA NTRS1986

A simple model for 100 K-year oscillations in glaciation

A simple climatic model which produces glaciation cycles of 100 K periods in response to forcing by 20 K, 40 K, and 100 K periods is described. The model is based on Milankovitch's (1930) hypothesis that glaciation fluctuations are forced by orbital variation and the associated change in insolation. The sea ice/snow cover line for the model, and the relation between heat variations and the ice/snow line are analyzed. The sea ice/snow cover line for the model is between the pole and 53 deg latitude and the line's position is the forcing for the glaciation cycle. Examples of the model's response to forcing are presented and evaluated. The negative glaciation permitted by the model is studied. The role of CO2 feedback in the glaciation cycle is investigated.

Lindzen, R. S.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using CESM-RESFire to understand climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and the implications for decadal climate variability

Large wildfires exert strong disturbance on regional and global climate systems and ecosystems by perturbing radiative forcing as well as the carbon and water balance between the atmosphere and land surface, while short- and long-term variations in fire weather, terrestrial ecosystems, and human activity modulate fire intensity and reshape fire regimes. The complex climate–fire–ecosystem interactions were not fully integrated in previous climate model studies, and the resulting effects on the projections of future climate change are not well understood. Here we use the fully interactive REgion-Specific ecosystem feedback Fire model (RESFire) that was developed in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate these interactions and their impacts on climate systems and fire activity. We designed two sets of decadal simulations using CESM-RESFire for present-day (2001–2010) and future (2051–2060) scenarios, respectively, and conducted a series of sensitivity experiments to assess the effects of individual feedback pathways among climate, fire, and ecosystems. Our implementation of RESFire, which includes online land–atmosphere coupling of fire emissions and fire-induced land cover change (LCC), reproduces the observed aerosol optical depth (AOD) from space-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite products and ground-based AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) data; it agrees well with carbon budget benchmarks from previous studies. We estimate the global averaged net radiative effect of both fire aerosols and fire-induced LCC at –0.59±0.52 W m –2 , which is dominated by fire aerosol–cloud interactions (–0.82±0.19 W m –2 ), in the present-day scenario under climatological conditions of the 2000s. The fire-related net cooling effect increases by ~170 % to –1.60±0.27 W m –2 in the 2050s under the conditions of the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario. Such considerably enhanced radiative effect is attributed to the largely increased global burned area (+19 %) and fire carbon emissions (+100 %) from the 2000s to the 2050s driven by climate change. The net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon between the land and atmosphere components in the simulations increases by 33 % accordingly, implying that biomass burning is an increasing carbon source at short-term timescales in the future. High-latitude regions with prevalent peatlands would be more vulnerable to increased fire threats due to climate change, and the increase in fire aerosols could counter the projected decrease in anthropogenic aerosols due to air pollution control policies in many regions. We also evaluate two distinct feedback mechanisms that are associated with fire aerosols and fire-induced LCC, respectively. On a global scale, the first mechanism imposes positive feedbacks to fire activity through enhanced droughts with suppressed precipitation by fire aerosol–cloud interactions, while the second one manifests as negative feedbacks due to reduced fuel loads by fire consumption and post-fire tree mortality and recovery processes. These two feedback pathways with opposite effects compete at regional to global scales and increase the complexity of climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and their climatic impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Resolution dependence of the turbulent atmospheric boundary layer in global storm-resolving climate simulations

The current generation of state-of-the-art global climate models are being run at increasingly higher horizontal resolutions, with the goal of resolving organised deep convection explicitly. How a kilometre-scale resolution impacts the representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is, however, not well known. Using statistical analysis on global fields as well as high-frequency data at selected locations, produced with the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) model for the Next Generation Earth-system Models (nextGEMS) project, we investigate the horizontal resolution dependence of some boundary-layer processes. We find that a change in resolution from 9 to 2.8 km causes no substantial changes to boundary-layer properties and processes at most of the locations studied, although some global changes are detected that indicate circulation changes. Small changes to the boundary-layer depth and structure are found in the Tropics. The short simulation length and lack of data for optimal boundary-layer analysis limits the conclusions, especially in relation to the connection between the boundary layer and the atmosphere general circulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Contrasting Effects of Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific El Nino on Stratospheric Water Vapor

Targeted experiments with a comprehensive chemistry-climate model are used to demonstrate that seasonality and the location of the peak warming of sea surface temperatures dictate the response of stratospheric water vapor to El Nino. In spring, El Nino events in which sea surface temperature anomalies peak in the eastern Pacific lead to a warming at the tropopause above the warm pool region, and subsequently to more stratospheric water vapor (consistent with previous work). However, in fall and in early winter, and also during El Nino events in which the sea surface temperature anomaly is found mainly in the central Pacific, the response is qualitatively different: temperature changes in the warm pool region are nonuniform and less water vapor enters the stratosphere. The difference in water vapor in the lower stratosphere between the two variants of El Nino approaches 0.3 ppmv, while the difference between the winter and spring responses exceeds 0.5 ppmv.

water vapor↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improved Dust Representation and Impacts on Dust Transport and Radiative Effect in CAM5

Dust transport and spatial distribution are poorly represented in current global climate models (GCMs) including the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). Particularly, models lack explicit representation of super-coarse dust, which may have important implications for dust radiative forcing and impacts on biogeochemistry. A nine-mode version of the modal aerosol model (MAM9) has been developed to address these issues. In this new aerosol scheme, four dust modes have been designed to treat dust particles of sizes up to 20 μm. The MAM9-simulated results are compared with those from the default four-mode version of MAM (MAM4) and also with the in situ surface measurements of dust concentration and deposition flux, satellite-retrieved dust extinction profile, and in situ vertical measurements of dust concentrations from the NASA Atmosphere Tomography Mission (ATom). Overall, MAM9 improves the dust representation in remote regions while maintaining reasonably good results near the dust source regions. In addition, MAM9 reduces the fine dust burden and increases the coarse dust burden globally. The increased coarse dust burden has slightly increased the dust direct radiative effect by 0.01 W m –2 while it enhanced dust indirect radiative effect by 0.36 W m –2 , globally.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Emergent Relationships Among Sea Ice, Longwave Radiation, and the Beaufort High Circulation Exposed Through Parameter Uncertainty Analysis

Using a perturbed parameter ensemble of a coupled climate model, emerging relationships are identified between sea ice area, net surface longwave radiation, and the atmospheric circulation over the Beaufort gyre. There is a strong positive correlation between sea ice area and the net longwave radiation over the ocean-ice surface during the melting season and a negative correlation during the freezing season. The mechanisms responsible for the longwave radiation balance at the surface are mainly driven by sea ice variations in the freezing season and by clouds in the melting season. A strong positive (negative) correlation is also found between the fall (summer) total sea ice area in the Arctic and the sea level pressure over the Beaufort High region. It is argued that as sea ice coverage is lost, static stability losses are severe in fall, resulting in enhanced evaporation, vertical motions, and weakening of the general large-scale anticyclonic circulation of the Beaufort High.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Natural variation in growth and yield to waterlogging across climate-diverse pennycress accessions

Many winter annual crops, such as pennycress ( Thlaspi arvense L.), are subjected to heavy precipitation events during their growing season. Therefore, it is essential to identify pennycress accessions with natural variation in flooding resilience. We used climate modeling data to assess spring soil moisture levels in the geographic origins of 471 natural pennycress accessions. We selected 34 accessions with variation in predicted soil moisture and tested survivability under prolonged waterlogging at the rosette stage. It took seven weeks for the first accessions to die, indicating that pennycress is hardy to prolonged waterlogging at the vegetative stage. Furthermore, we chose ‘susceptible’ and ‘tolerant’ accessions to waterlog for one week at the reproductive stage, the growth stage aligned with spring rainfall. Six accessions had significantly reduced seed weight at maturity and two had minimal impacts on growth and seed yield after waterlogging and can be further explored for adaptive traits.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Multi-Variate Factorisation of Numerical Simulations

Factorisation (also known as “factor separation”) is widely used in the analysis of numerical simulations. It allows changes in properties of a system to be attributed to changes in multiple variables associated with that system. There are many possible factorisation methods; here we discuss three previously proposed factorisations that have been applied in the field of climate modelling: the linear factorisation, the Stein and Alpert (1993) factorisation, and the Lunt et al. (2012) factorisation. We show that, when more than two variables are being considered, none of these three methods possess all four properties of “uniqueness”, “symmetry”, “completeness”, and “purity”. Here, we extend each of these factorisations so that they do possess these properties for any number of variables, resulting in three factorisations – the “linear-sum” factorisation, the “shared-interaction” factorisation, and the “scaled-residual” factorisation. We show that the linear-sum factorisation and the shared-interaction factorisation reduce to be identical in the case of four or fewer variables, and we conjecture that this holds for any number of variables. We present the results of the factorisations in the context of three past studies that used the previously proposed factorisations.

Numerical simulations↗
NASA NTRS2016

Traveling Weather Disturbances in Mars Southern Extratropics: Sway of the Great Impact Basins

As on Earth, between late autumn and early spring on Mars middle and high latitudes within its atmosphere support strong mean thermal contrasts between the equator and poles (i.e. "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that this strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e. transient synoptic-period waves). Within a rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmosphere such as on Earth and Mars, such large-scale, extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation. These wave-like disturbances act as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and moreover generalized tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water vapor and water-ice clouds) between low and high latitudes of the planet. The character of large-scale, traveling extratropical synoptic-period disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This global circulation model imposes interactively lifted (and radiatively active) dust based on a threshold value of the instantaneous surface stress. Compared to observations, the model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e. globally averaged, a more dusty atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). In contrast to their northern-hemisphere counterparts, southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense synoptically. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e. east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather disturbances are examined. Simulations that adapt Mars' full topography compared to simulations that utilize synthetic topographies emulating essential large-scale features of the southern middle latitudes indicate that Mars' transient barotropic/baroclinic eddies are significantly influenced by the great impact basins of this hemisphere (e.g., Argyre and Hellas). In addition, the occurrence of a southern storm zone in late winter and early spring is keyed particularly to the western hemisphere via orographic influences arising from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate fundamental differences amongst such simulations and these are described.

Weather disturbances↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Future Mars Environment for Science and Exploration

Today, Mars is arid and cold with a very thin atmosphere that has significant frozen and underground water resources. The thin atmosphere prevents liquid water from residing permanently on its surface and makes it difficult to land missions since it is not thick enough to completely facilitate a soft landing. In its past, under the influence of a significant greenhouse effect, Mars must have had a significant water ocean covering perhaps 30% of the northern hemisphere. Mars lost its protective magnetosphere and therefore much of its atmosphere around 3 Ga ago, due to the solar wind. The atmospheric loss into the solar wind is somewhat balanced by the outgassing of the Mars interior and crust that contributes to the existing atmosphere leading to a global-mean surface atmosphere of ~6 mbar pressure currently. By using our extensive simulation tools and physics capabilities in Space Weather and Mars global climate modeling, we have started to explore the effects on Mars of placing an artificial magnetic dipole field at the Mars L1 Lagrange point putting Mars in a magnetotail. This situation then eliminates many of the solar-wind erosion processes that occur with the planet's ionosphere and upper atmosphere allowing the Martian atmosphere to grow in pressure and bulk temperature over time. Under thicker atmospheres, the global circulation patterns and seasonal changes are much different than at present. An enhanced atmosphere would: allow larger landed mass of equipment to the surface, shield against some cosmic and solar particle radiation, extend the ability for extraction, and provide "open air" greenhouses to exist for plant production, just to name a few. These new conditions on Mars would allow human explorers and researchers to study the planet in much greater detail and enable a truly profound new understanding of the habitability of this planet.

Space Weather and Mars global climate modeling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Causal Relationships and Adjustment Timescales of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in Geostationary Satellite Observations and CAM6 Using Wavelet Phase Coherence Analysis

We present for the first time within the cloud physics context, the application of wavelet phase coherence analysis to disentangle counteracting physical processes associated with the lead-lag phase difference between cloud-proxy liquid water path (LWP) and aerosol-proxy cloud droplet number concentration ( N d ) in an Eulerian framework using satellite-based observations and climate model outputs. This approach allows us to identify the causality and dominant adjustment timescales governing the correlation between LWP and N d . Satellite observations indicate a more prevalent positive correlation between daytime LWP and N d regardless of whether LWP leads or lags N d . The positive cloud water response, associated with precipitation processes, typically occurs within 1 hr, while the negative response resulting from entrainment drying, usually takes 2–4 hr. CAM6 displays excessively rapid negative responses along with overly strong negative cloud water response and insufficient positive response, leading to a more negative correlation between LWP and N d compared to observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sea Level Rise in the CESM Large Ensemble: The Role of Individual Climate Forcings and Consequences for the Coming Decades

The emergence of a spatial pattern in the externally forced response (FR) of dynamic sea level (DSL) during the altimeter era has recently been demonstrated using climate models but our understanding of its initial emergence, drivers, and implications for the future is poor. Here the anthropogenic forcings of the DSL pattern are explored using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) and Single-Forcing Large Ensemble, a newly available set of simulations where values of individual forcing agents remain fixed at 1920 levels, allowing for an estimation of their effects. Statistically significant contributions to the DSL FR are identified for greenhouse gases (GHGs) and industrial aerosols (AERs), with particularly strong contributions resulting from AERs in the mid-twentieth century and GHGs in the late twentieth and twenty-first century. Secondary, but important, contributions are identified for biomass burning aerosols in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean in the mid-twentieth century, and for stratospheric ozone in the Southern Ocean during the late twentieth century. Key to understanding regional DSL patterns are ocean heat content and salinity anomalies, which are driven by surface heat and freshwater fluxes, ocean dynamics, and the spatial structure of seawater thermal expansivity. Finally, potential implications for the interpretation of DSL during the satellite era and the longer records from tide gauges are suggested as a topic for future research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2015

Effect of Recent Sea Surface Temperature Trends on the Arctic Stratospheric Vortex

The springtime Arctic polar vortex has cooled significantly over the satellite era, with consequences for ozone concentrations in the springtime transition season. The causes of this cooling trend are deduced by using comprehensive chemistry-climate model experiments. Approximately half of the satellite era early springtime cooling trend in the Arctic lower stratosphere was caused by changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). An ensemble of experiments forced only by changing SSTs is compared to an ensemble of experiments in which both the observed SSTs and chemically- and radiatively-active trace species are changing. By comparing the two ensembles, it is shown that warming of Indian Ocean, North Pacific, and North Atlantic SSTs, and cooling of the tropical Pacific, have strongly contributed to recent polar stratospheric cooling in late winter and early spring, and to a weak polar stratospheric warming in early winter. When concentrations of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases are fixed, polar ozone concentrations show a small but robust decline due to changing SSTs. Ozone changes are magnified in the presence of changing gas concentrations. The stratospheric changes can be understood by examining the tropospheric height and heat flux anomalies generated by the anomalous SSTs. Finally, recent SST changes have contributed to a decrease in the frequency of late winter stratospheric sudden warmings.

Arctic↗