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NASA NTRS2009

Design of Experiments for Both Experimental and Analytical Study of Exhaust Plume Effects on Sonic Boom

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis has been performed to study the plume effects on sonic boom signature for isolated nozzle configurations. The objectives of these analyses were to provide comparison to past work using modern CFD analysis tools, to investigate the differences of high aspect ratio nozzles to circular (axisymmetric) nozzles, and to report the effects of under expanded nozzle operation on boom signature. CFD analysis was used to address the plume effects on sonic boom signature from a baseline exhaust nozzle. Nearfield pressure signatures were collected for nozzle pressure ratios (NPRs) between 6 and 10. A computer code was used to extrapolate these signatures to a ground-observed sonic boom N-wave. Trends show that there is a reduction in sonic boom N-wave signature as NPR is increased from 6 to 10. As low boom designs are developed and improved, there will be a need for understanding the interaction between the aircraft boat tail shocks and the exhaust nozzle plume. These CFD analyses will provide a baseline study for future analysis efforts. For further study, a design of experiments has been conducted to develop a hybrid method where both CFD and small scale wind tunnel testing will validate the observed trends. The CFD and testing will be used to screen a number of factors which are important to low boom propulsion integration, including boat tail angle, nozzle geometry, and the effect of spacing and stagger on nozzle pairs. To design the wind tunnel experiment, CFD was instrumental in developing a model which would provide adequate space to observe the nozzle and boat tail shock structure without interference from the wind tunnel walls.

Castner, Raymond S.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Subsonic Single Aft Engine Narrowbody (SUSAN) Freighter Concept and Market Analysis

The dedicated air cargo and freight market has the potential to be a critical early pathway for emerging technologies in low to zero emission propulsion. This study analyzes the cargo aviation market to understand current market trends and future market viability of a mid-sized all-electric or hybrid-electric concept aircraft. While cargo aviation’s overall emissions footprint is small relative to commercial passenger aviation, it remains an important and challenging transportation sector to decarbonize. Past research has focused on small, less than 19-seat electrified aircraft propulsion concepts that could serve both passenger and air cargo markets This study extends the electrified market space into larger aircraft classes, considering if a purpose-built large hybrid electric turboprop freighter can compete in the market currently served primarily by conversion narrowbody freighters. Specifically, this paper focuses on the mid-sized cargo market with payload ranges of 40,000-50,000lbs, and an all-electric range potential up to 750 miles. The concept aircraft is based on a 4-engine turboprop configuration, with mounted wing battery packs and an aft cargo door to allow for standardized palletization. The market analysis indicates broad market coverage with 73% of the existing mid-sized cargo network within the range of 750 miles. A breakeven analysis of operating and capital costs shows potential for market competition, however, additional energy and acquisition cost savings from the concept aircraft are needed. Evidence from the breakeven analysis also points to higher rates of aircraft utilization being a critical path to lowering costs and increasing cost effectiveness.

Jacob M. Wishart↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multimodal Freight Energy Model for Emerging Freight Technology Analysis

While freight movement represents a small portion of the volume in the transportation sector, they are a critical contributor for energy consumed in that sector. To reduce logistics costs, energy consumption and negative environmental impact, emerging technologies, such as digitalization of logistics and alternative powertrain, have been developed and extended applications in freight. These trends are expected to grow and provide opportunities for greater efficiencies in freight movement and corresponding energy use. Still, the complexity of freight systems present challenges in evaluating these benefits, especially in the multimodal inter-city freight. Addressing the research need, this paper develops a multimodal freight energy modeling framework for the analysis of emerging freight technology scenarios. The framework is a bi-level optimization problem: network cost minimization problem (lower-level) and energy minimization problem (upper-level). The lower-level problem is a mode-path assignment problem in multimodal inter-city freight networks, where commodity-specific congestion effects on trans-shipment links are considered. For this model, an inverse modeling approach is applied to infer parameters of the lower-level model. The upper-level problem is designed to search for an optimal scenario that has the lowest energy consumption among different levels of technology applications. The proposed model is empirically tested to analyze truck load-pooling and multimodal load-pooling scenarios through stand-alone and mixed applications using freight shipments originating from or destined to the Chicago region. This framework can be used to explore the impact of emerging freight technologies on mode-path freight flow and energy consumption in the national multimodal freight network.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Power System Redundancy Design Trends for All-Electric eVTOL Quadrotors

Electrical vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicles promise to enable a variety of new local and intraregional air transport missions. However, there are significant challenges that must be solved to enable their use. One challenge is the relatively low reliability of power components (e.g. motors, power electronic devices, and batteries). No clear development path to create reliable eVTOL power systems has been articulated in the literature, though it is generally assumed redundancy is part of the solution. This work proposes an analysis process to examine the redundancy design space and select mass optimal designs for eVTOL power systems. The process is applied to a six passenger quadrotor vehicle, and results are used to highlight redundancy design trends for this class of vehicle. This process and associated data can help vehicle designers more effectively develop eVTOLs that meet reliability requirements.

Electric vertical takeoff and landing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Power System Redundancy Design Trends for All-Electric eVTOL Quadrotors

Electric vertical takeoff and landing↗

DOE OSTI2026

Distinct drivers of recent seasonal precipitation increase over Central Asia: roles of anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases

Observational evidence reveals a pronounced wetting trend over Central Asia in recent decades, with the most substantial increases occurring during winter and summer. Yet the extent to which the drivers of these changes differ seasonally remains unknown. Here, we use single-forcing experiments from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) to examine the effects of various external forcings on winter and summer precipitation across Central Asia and to explore the physical mechanisms underlying seasonal precipitation changes. We find that greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing mainly increases winter precipitation by enhancing atmospheric moisture content through warming. In contrast, in summer, Asian sulfate aerosols enhance precipitation by modulating the westerly jet, which strengthens atmospheric moisture transport into the region. Asian black carbon exerts an opposing influence that partially offsets the sulfate-induced effect. Further attribution analysis based on CMIP6 simulations reinforces these sensitivity results and shows that GHG forcing is the primary driver of winter precipitation increases whereas anthropogenic aerosols dominate summer trends. Future CMIP6 projections suggest that under moderate- to high-emission scenarios, winter precipitation will continue to rise due to increasing GHG concentrations, while summer precipitation may decline across much of Central Asia as a result of reduced aerosol emissions following Asian clean air policies. These findings highlight a distinct seasonality in the drivers of recent precipitation increase and suggest a plausible divergence in future winter and summer precipitation trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1985

Advances and trends in the development of computational models for tires

Status and some recent developments of computational models for tires are summarized. Discussion focuses on a number of aspects of tire modeling and analysis including: tire materials and their characterization; evolution of tire models; characteristics of effective finite element models for analyzing tires; analysis needs for tires; and impact of the advances made in finite element technology, computational algorithms, and new computing systems on tire modeling and analysis. An initial set of benchmark problems has been proposed in concert with the U.S. tire industry. Extensive sets of experimental data will be collected for these problems and used for evaluating and validating different tire models. Also, the new Aircraft Landing Dynamics Facility (ALDF) at NASA Langley Research Center is described.

Noor, A. K.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Efficient hemodynamic event detection utilizing relational databases and wavelet analysis

Development of a temporal query framework for time-oriented medical databases has hitherto been a challenging problem. We describe a novel method for the detection of hemodynamic events in multiparameter trends utilizing wavelet coefficients in a MySQL relational database. Storage of the wavelet coefficients allowed for a compact representation of the trends, and provided robust descriptors for the dynamics of the parameter time series. A data model was developed to allow for simplified queries along several dimensions and time scales. Of particular importance, the data model and wavelet framework allowed for queries to be processed with minimal table-join operations. A web-based search engine was developed to allow for user-defined queries. Typical queries required between 0.01 and 0.02 seconds, with at least two orders of magnitude improvement in speed over conventional queries. This powerful and innovative structure will facilitate research on large-scale time-oriented medical databases.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

DOE OSTI2021

Transportation Hub Infrastructure Expansion: Decision Support Under Uncertainty

The Athena project (www.athena-mobility.org) has worked to investigate the relationship between the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport (DFW) and the greater Dallas area in order to better understand and therefore better inform future decision-making regarding the critical infrastructure that influence mobility between the airport and the city. Through this work, infrastructure related to curbside pickup and drop-off, parking, public transit, and the road network congestion were identified as critical to the operation of the DFW transportation hub. The infrastructure analysis and expansion aspect of the Athena project is focused on the restructuring of the CTA curb as a hierarchical curb and the building or repurposing of parking infrastructure as the interplay between these two areas. Many sources of uncertainty exist that may impact future airport and transportation hub operations, such as passenger volume growth, population demographic changes over time, electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates, and autonomous vehicle (AV) adoption rates. Due to these sources of uncertainty, we have selected for our research a modeling framework that can capture various types of uncertainty and hedge against those uncertainties in the optimization process. We analyze road network and curb congestion, the rise of transportation networking companies, trends in parking usage, existing policies around this infrastructure, airport revenue streams, and other contributing factors to enable infrastructure decision making with less uncertainty. To accomplish this wholistic analysis, we have developed a novel multi-stage, multi-period stochastic optimization model which considers the airport's decisions from 2025-2045 under different possible future macro trajectories and day-to-day variations in operational conditions captured as "annual representation of operations" scenarios with respective probabilities. This model has also been designed to leverage the outputs of various efforts under the Athena project to create a combined decision framework for infrastructure decisions. These various efforts include the route optimization model, the ASPIRES simulation, the mode choice model, and the SUMO traffic simulation. Our computational experiments of this system at scale have resulted in a working version of our infrastructure model which enables the explicit representation and consideration of various sources of uncertainty in the decision process to enable robust, flexible decision-making. This model has been effectively run on NREL's HPC system, Eagle, with large numbers of stochastic scenarios and shows promise as a scalable tool for robust consideration of uncertainties in airport planning. We have tested our model using 30,240 operational circumstances in total, resulting in a problem with more 200 million variables. This model was solved in several different configurations, and a workflow to simulate the performance of the infrastructure model results was developed and deployed. In general, our results indicate that a combination of remote parking, remote curb infrastructure, and dynamic pricing can generate revenue, reduce emissions, accommodate emerging technologies such as AVs and EVs, and manage airport passenger growth over time. We note the success of the proposed strategy depends on the data collection and forecasting abilities of DFW. We have also seen that the AV adoption by TNCs might necessitate larger amounts of remote curb. The results of this work inform strategies for airport infrastructure decision making, as well as demonstrate the value of an adaptable model, but also indicate that there are avenues remaining where further research would be of value.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multi-Sourced Collaboration for the Production and Refining of Rare Elements and Critical Metals (Final Technical Report)

The project objective was to develop a feasible and cost-effective method for recovering rare earth elements (REEs) and critical materials (CMs) from coal and coal byproducts, resulting in high-purity individually separated REEs and CMs. The targeted REEs included Y, Pr, Nd, Gd, Dy, and Sm, with a purity of over 99.5%, while the CMs included Co, Mn, Ga, Sr, Li, Ni, Zn, and Ge, with a purity of over 90%. The project aimed to design a prototype facility capable of producing 1-3 tonnes/day of high-purity REO mixes. The work was divided into four designated circuits: 1) REE extraction and concentration, 2) REE separation and purification, 3) RE metal production, and 4) CM production. To achieve these goals, the project involved 11 tasks, including technology reviews, research, process flow diagram development, mass balance estimation, and preliminary technical-economic analysis. The project team included researchers from the University of Kentucky, University of Alabama and Virginia Tech as well as process specialists from Argonne National Laboratory. MP Materials provided technical support regarding rare earth markets and processing while Alliance Coal performed resource assessment. The project included a market analysis for Nd/Pr, Tb, Dy, Gd, Y, Co, Mn, Li, Sr, Ga, Ni, Zn, and Ge. These analyses provided insights into the supply and demand trends as well as historic and future projections of market price relative to purity requirements for these elements. Two coal resources were selected for the project: the West Kentucky No. 13 (Baker) Seam and an undisclosed lignite resource in the Illinois coal basin. The estimated quantities of REEs in these resources were calculated based on production samples and drilling data. It was estimated that there is adequate supply for an operation producing one metric ton daily of higher purity mixed rare earth oxides (MREO) for approximately 20 years at a site located in western Kentucky. In Circuit 1, project data was obtained from a pilot heap leach and REE concentration facility. It was concluded that the existing circuit, which generated a MREO concentrate, two types of CM mixed products, and Li- and Sr-containing waters, would be suitable feed for circuits 2-4. Data from the first-of-its-kind coal coarse refuse heap leach pilot pad played a crucial role in estimating reliable elemental concentrations of the pregnant leaching solution (PLS). The average total REE concentration in the PLS was found to be 28.6 ppm. In Circuit 2, several concepts were explored including a novel process referred to as solvent-assisted chromatography (SAC). This concept involved a novel columnar reactor that incorporated multiple mixer/settlers, thereby enabling the operation of counter-flowing aqueous and organic phases. Unfortunately, due to project time constraints, a complete fundamental modeling analysis could not be completed to fully evaluate the technology. Molten salt electrowinning was considered as an alternative for circuit 3 following circuit 2 purification circuit utilizing the novel SAC process. A mass and energy balance of Nd reduction to metal in a fluoride containing molten salt electrolyte was conducted. Comparisons were made with the current state of Asian molten salt electrorefining, and potential improvements in siphoning rare earth metals (REM) from the reactor were presented. A cost estimate was performed for the production of 1 tonne per day, which yielded a total of $2.29 million for the nine electrowinning (EW) cells required. The selected option for circuits 2 and 3 was a plasma distillation process, which initially separates rare earth elements (REEs) from other elements. This is followed by selective electrowinning in various ionic liquids. The selection was made on the basis of thermodynamic modeling and experimental data previously published by a project partner. The combination offers an innovative approach to integrated refining and RE metal production. For Circuit 4, an extensive literature review was conducted for the processing of the CMs. The ultimate decision was to utilize a combined plasma and ionic liquid process as well to produce individual high-purity concentrates of Zn, Ni, Co, Mn, and Mg. A separate flowsheet for Li and Sr was recommended, which would yield carbonates of these elements. Due to the lack of suitable experimental data at this time, a process recommendation could not be provided but several methods have been proposed for consideration. Lastly, a techno-economic analysis (TEA) was conducted to assess the effectiveness of the proposed process for further investigation. The TEA results revealed a capital expense (CapEx) of $737 million and an annual operational expense (OpEx) of $220 million. Due to the selected elements, the hypothetical heap leach pad can produce 1 metric tonne per day of REO equivalent, but a conscious decision was made to only treat targeted REEs, resulting in the production of 0.4 metric tonne of REM. An estimated annual revenue of $90.87 million was projected based on standard market pricing information provided by the funding agency. During the TEA, ten different modules were evaluated for costing purposes. The precipitation circuit was identified as the largest single operational expense, followed by the Mg/Mn process due to the amount of treated metal. In terms of capital expenditures, the heap leach process incurred the highest cost, followed by the Mg/Mn process. The scalability of the plasma process is a crucial consideration since the reactors cannot be scaled beyond the largest demonstrated size due to their reliance on surface area of the slag and vapor phase. The purity estimate for the REEs are generally 98%±2% to produce a metal. The purity level being lower than the project objective was due to the lack of specific experimental data needed to tighten the tolerance of the estimates. Based on literature and previous experience, the CMs are estimated as follows; Ga (95%+, metal), Sr (95%+, carbonate), Li (95%+, carbonate), Ni (98%±2%, metal), Zn (95%+, metal sponge), Ge (95%+, metal), Co (98%±2%, metal), and Mn (98%±2%, metal).

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

NASA NTRS2019

On-Orbit Xenon Refueling Loading Times and Transient Analysis

The Power and Propulsion Element (PPE) of the Lunar Orbital Platform-Gateway will demonstrate the first on-orbit refueling of xenon propellant for a solar electric propulsion system. An analysis was performed in Microsoft Excel to determine what factors influence the overall refueling time of a single 2,000-kilogram capacity xenon propellant tank, as well as provide estimates for overall refueling duration. Due to the high heat of compression of xenon, the propellant tank could exceed its maximum allowable temperature during refueling if the xenon flow rate and temperature are unregulated. In order to prevent overheating, a logic based "bang-bang" operation was used for refueling, shutting off the mass feed when the tank reached a maximum temperature. Heat is removed from the tank via radiation to the surrounding spacecraft bus. The analysis shows that optimizing key parameters such as mass flow rate into the tank, residual propellant in the tank during the onset of refueling, and tank diameter significantly reduces the overall refueling duration. Optimization is not straightforward, however, as the loading time does not trend monotonically with the parameters. Overall, the most significant impact on loading duration comes from altering the residual propellant in the tank. Increasing the mass of residual propellant from 2 percent to 20 percent reduces the overall refueling duration by 56 percent. Future work based on this analysis includes creation of a SINDA/FLUINT model and building a ground-based xenon refueling system emulator.

Xenon↗

NASA NTRS2018

Nosetip Bluntness Effects on Transition at Hypersonic Speeds: Experimental and Numerical Analysis

The existing database of transition measurements in hypersonic ground facilities has established that the onset of boundary layer transition over a circular cone at zero angle of attack shifts downstream as the nosetip bluntness is increased with respect to a sharp cone. However, this trend is reversed at sufficiently large values of the nosetip Reynolds number, so that the transition onset location eventually moves upstream with a further increase in nosetip bluntness. This transition reversal phenomenon, which cannot be explained on the basis of linear stability theory, was the focus of a collaborative investigation under the NATO STO group AVT-240 on Hypersonic Boundary-Layer Transition Prediction. The current paper provides an overview of that effort, which included wind tunnel measurements in three different facilities and theoretical analysis related to modal and nonmodal amplification of boundary layer disturbances. Because neither first and second-mode waves nor entropy-layer instabilities are found to be substantially amplified to initiate transition at large bluntness values, transient (i.e., nonmodal) disturbance growth has been investigated as the potential basis for a physics based model for the transition reversal phenomenon. Results of the transient growth analysis indicate that stationary disturbances that are initiated within the nosetip or in the vicinity of the juncture between the nosetip and the frustum can undergo relatively significant nonmodal amplification and that the maximum energy gain increases nonlinearly with the nose radius of the cone. This finding does not provide a definitive link between transient growth and the onset of transition, but it is qualitatively consistent with the experimental observations that frustum transition during the reversal regime was highly sensitive to wall roughness, and furthermore, was dominated by disturbances that originated near the nosetip. Furthermore, the present analysis shows significant nonmodal growth of traveling disturbances that peak within the entropy layer and could also play a role in the transition reversal phenomenon.

Freestream Mach Number↗

DOE OSTI2020

VADER: A Tool for Criticality Safety Validation

The purpose of criticality safety is to prevent any inadvertent criticality from occurring during the handling or storage of fissile material. Calculations are frequently used to demonstrate that a sufficient subcritical margin exists. Validation is a key aspect of the evaluation process, establishing the suitability, accuracy, and associated uncertainty of the computational method and data to be used for the intended application. The validation process is performed by comparing the results of critical experiments with the calculated results from models of the experiments using the computational method to be validated. Laboratory critical experiments are controlled systems that achieve a k eff of approximately 1 in order to investigate the parameters at which such a critical condition is achieved. The validation parameters that are traditionally applied to safety analysis calculations are the bias and the bias uncertainty . The bias is the deviation of the average k eff of the validation suite from unity. The bias uncertainty accounts for the statistical uncertainty in the bias based on the standard deviation, sample size, and distribution of k eff values of the validation suite. The values of bias and bias uncertainty ensure that the systems predicted to be subcritical by the computational method will indeed be subcritical. The bias and bias uncertainty are often combined to determine an upper subcritical limit (USL) or computational margin that can then be applied to safety analysis calculations. Many methods have been developed by different organizations to calculate the bias and bias uncertainty for various types of criticality analyses. Each of these methods typically requires that the validity of various underpinning statistical assumptions be confirmed to demonstrate that the method is appropriate for the analysis of a given validation suite. An example of the validation decision making flow is shown in Fig.1. As shown in Fig. 1, the analyst performing the validation fits a trend line to the data and performs a test to determine if the trend was a statistically better representation of the data than if it were treated as an uncorrelated sample. If the trend line is a better representation of the data, then the analyst uses any one of a number of trending techniques to determine the bias and bias uncertainty. If a trend is not an appropriate representation of the data, then the analyst proceeds to perform a normality assessment for the data. If the normal assumption can be shown to be acceptable, then the analyst calculates the bias and bias uncertainty with the parametric technique. If the assumption of normality cannot be justified, then the nonparametric technique is used. Once the decision flow has been followed and the appropriate technique has been selected, the bias and bias uncertainty is typically combined with an administrative margin to determine a USL below which calculated values of k eff for safety analysis models can be considered subcritical. The calculations used in each decision are often performed with spreadsheets or with small programs available at various sites performing criticality analyses. Expertise in understanding and interpreting the results must be maintained to perform these calculations. This can often be an error-prone process. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is currently developing the Validation and Data Evaluation Resource (VADER) to simplify and automate the criticality safety validation process and to provide a software quality assurance pedigree to the calculational methods used. This paper discusses the use of the Fulcrum user interface with VADER, the anticipated initial capabilities of VADER to perform validation analyses, and the output from the code.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Real‐time XFEL data analysis at SLAC and NERSC: A trial run of nascent exascale experimental data analysis

X‐ray scattering experiments using free electron lasers (XFELs) are a powerful tool to determine the molecular structure and function of unknown samples (such as COVID‐19 viral proteins). XFEL experiments are a challenge to computing in two ways: (i) due to the high cost of running XFELs, a fast turnaround time from data acquisition to data analysis is essential to make informed decisions on experimental protocols; (ii) data‐collection rates are growing exponentially, requiring new scalable algorithms. Here we report our experiences analyzing data from two experiments at the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) during September 2020. Raw data were analyzed on NERSC's Cori XC40 system, using the Superfacility paradigm: our workflow automatically moves raw data between LCLS and NERSC, where it is analyzed using the software package CCTBX. We achieved real time data analysis with a turnaround time from data acquisition to full molecular reconstruction in as little as 10 min—sufficient time for the experiment's operators to make informed decisions. By hosting the data analysis on Cori, and by automating LCLS‐NERSC interoperability, we achieved a data analysis rate which matches the data acquisition rate. Completing data analysis within 10 min is a first for XFEL experiments and an important milestone if we are to keep up with data‐collection trends.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data Mining and Visualization of High-Dimensional ICME Data for Additive Manufacturing

Integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) methods combining CALPHAD with process-based simulations can produce rich, high-dimensional data for alloy and process design. In ICME methods for metallurgical applications, the visualization and interpretation of such high-dimensional data has previously been through heat maps represented in 2 or 3 dimensions. While such an approach is ideal when one variable is varied at a time, in the case of high-dimensional data with multiple variables varied simultaneously, as is the case in additive manufacturing, interpreting the trends through two- or three-dimensional heat maps becomes challenging. Here, we propose a strategy of mixed visual data mining and quantitative analysis for high-dimensional metallurgical and process data using high-throughput thermodynamic calculations. Two case studies show the application of the proposed approach. The first case study investigated the effects of feedstock chemistry on the δ ferrite formation in 316L stainless steel powders used for binder jet additive manufacturing. The second case study linked Scheil–Gulliver calculations to a process model for dissimilar joining of aluminum alloys 5356 and 6111 during laser hot-wire additive manufacturing. Both cases contained thousands of calculated data points, showcasing the utility of visual data analysis through parallel coordinate plotting, Pearson correlation coefficient matrices, and scatter matrices compared to traditional process maps. These visualization techniques can be extended to many additive manufacturing problems to capture process–structure–property relationships for additively manufactured components.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

A phenology- and trend-based approach for accurate mapping of sea-level driven coastal forest retreat

The rapid replacement of upland forest by encroaching marshland is a striking manifestation of global sea-level rise (SLR). Timely and high-resolution information on the location and extent of transition forest (the ecotone between upland forest and marsh where tree mortality due to seawater intrusion begins) is fundamental to understanding the processes and patterns of SLR-driven landscape reorganization. Despite its significance, accurate characterization of salt-impacted transition forest remains challenging due to the complexity of coastal environments, scarcity of ground-truth data, and the lack of effective mapping algorithms. Here we use the full archive of Landsat images between 1984 and 2021 to investigate the spectral, temporal, and phenological characteristics of transition forest, and develop a robust framework for monitoring coastal vegetation shifts in the mid-Atlantic U.S., a global SLR hotspot. Here, we found that transition forest exhibits strong negative NDVI trends and a deviation of land surface phenology from marsh and upland forest that distinguishes itself from surrounding vegetation. By integrating temporal trends and land surface phenology, our results demonstrate superior discrimination between marsh and coastal forests to existing map products (e.g. NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program, National Land Cover Database) that allows a reliable identification of the coastal treeline. We applied the approach to map regional land cover in 1985, 2000 and 2020 (overall classification accuracy >92%) and found that the area of coastal forest decreased by 22.0% from 1985 to 2020, the majority of which transitioned to marshland (92.3%, 5.3 × 10 3 ha). Based upon fine-scale patterns of coastal transgression, we created a practical workflow for spatially explicit quantification of forest retreat rates. Concurrent with rising sea level, coastal forests migrated upslope from 0.63 (± 0.27) m above sea level in 1985 to 0.78 (± 0.32) m above sea level in 2020, and horizontal forest retreat rates accelerated from 3.1 (range of 0–36) m yr -1 during 1985–2000 to 4.7 (0–55) m yr -1 during 2001–2020. As SLR continues to accelerate, our study may serve as a scalable solution for consistent tracking of coastal landscape evolution that is urgently needed for sustainable forest and wetland management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ion Clusters Reveal the Sources, Impacts, and Drivers of Freshwater Salinization

Population growth, land use change, climate change, and natural resource extraction are driving the salinization of freshwater resources worldwide. Reversing these trends will require data-centric approaches that identify salt sources, environmental drivers, and ecosystem responses. In this study, we applied principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering to identify ion covariance patterns, or “ion clusters,” in Broad Run, an urban stream in the Mid-Atlantic United States. These clusters correspond to distinct hydrologic regimes and reveal specific salinization risks: (1) phosphorus pollution mobilized during summer storms (Cluster 1); (2) elevated concentrations of sulfate and bicarbonate during baseflow (Cluster 2), likely reflecting groundwater discharge; and (3) elevated specific conductance and sodium, chloride, and potassium ion concentrations during snowmelt and rain-on-snow events (Cluster 3), driven by deicer and anti-icer wash-off. These ion fingerprints offer a transferable framework for diagnosing salt sources, assessing ecological risk, and identifying management targets. Our findings underscore the need for next-generation stormwater infrastructure and smart growth policies to protect aquatic life in rapidly urbanizing watersheds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Response of Summertime Organic Aerosol Composition to Emission Controls in the Northeastern United States

The responses of secondary organic aerosols (SOA) to emission controls remain uncertain due to the limited continuous long‐term measurements. Measurements of detailed carbonaceous aerosol composition in the New York City metropolitan region during the summers of 2001, 2009, 2011, and 2018 provide a look at the changes in summertime SOA over the past two decades when significant pollution reduction and emission controls occurred in the northeastern United States. Here, we show that the averaged nighttime SOA, especially the fresh local SOA, extreme mass concentrations resulted from anthropogenic volatile organic compounds reductions, while there is a little trend for the regional aged SOA. Meanwhile, these fresh SOA extremes occurred most often under conditions of high relative humidity during nighttime. The analysis presented here provides a comprehensive evaluation of the evolution of the increasingly important organic component of the submicron ambient aerosols in this major metropolitan area.

Zhang, Jie↗